From the “weather is not climate department” – New record low temperatures set in Cancun for three straight days, and more new low temperature records are possible this week.
Dr. Roy Spencer, who is in Cancun representing climate skepticism on behalf of CFACT writes on his blog:
Today’s my first full day in Cancun at COP-16, and as I emerged from my hotel room I was greeted by a brisk, dry, cool Canadian breeze.
It was 54 deg. F in Cancun this morning — a record low for the date. (BTW, Cancun is nowhere near Canada).
Al Gore is not supposed to be here…but it could be that the Gore Effect has announced his secret arrival. We will check into this.
Here’s the record for today from Weather Underground:
The old record low temperature of 57°F was bested today by four degrees.
And for the previous two days, new record lows have been set:
The weather forecast for the week ahead does not look encouraging, additional low temperature records may be set:
Here are existing Record Lows and Forecast Lows in upcoming days:
Wednesday: 53 °F (2003) Forecast: 51°F
Thursday: 60 °F (2000) Forecast: 59°F
Friday: 60 °F (1999) Forecast: 55°F
Saturday: 57 °F (2003) Forecast: 53°F
Sunday: 55 °F (2008) Forecast: 51°F
The Cancun delegates certainly live in “interesting times”.
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h/t’s to WUWT readers Barry L. and “Amino acids in meteorites”
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Word of caution: the wunderground.com records database is insufficiently short and those records are likely way off. Note, they are only 1999-2003…
International record highs and lows are something that need to be compiled independently: Bob Hart at FSU and I have a cool page that has the ongoing world-wide records based upon longer records, 30-40 years minimum. Again, take the station data with a grain of salt, but the gist of the site is awesome.
http://coolwx.com/record
REPLY: As I understand it, the WU “records” database comes from the larger database of historical records, available on CD ROM from a number of sources. For example, the record low for a nearby town (Oroville, CA) today is 26 °F (1956) as shown here:
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KOVE/2010/12/8/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
I agree that the “actual measurement” database they have is shorter in many cases. – Anthony
Um, this Gore effect is starting to get downright creepy!
wobble;
It’s no mystery; a natural statistical effect of being seriously wrong about nearly everything.
On behalf of Canada I would like to say “You’re Welcome”. We were done with that particular cold front, so we looked for the most useful place to send it. Sorry to those in the continental US that were forced to deal with it on its way past.
By the way, we got -29C from it.
Heh, delicious.
All we need now is a freak hailstorm on the beach.
Blood & Gore know no bounds! [:)]
https://pathstoknowledge.wordpress.com/2009/12/16/blood-and-gore-maximize-green-profits-at-all-costs-including-goring-science-integrity-and-extracting-blood-and-taxes-from-the-developed-and-developing-world/
https://pathstoknowledge.wordpress.com/2009/12/17/there-is-a-100-chance-that-al-gore-will-get-it-wrong-again-and-again-and-again-since-he-intentionally-exaggerates-lies-and-distorts-the-science-to-promote-his-vested-business-interests-in-blood
I believe that the concept of the Gore effect was introduced by Tim Blair, or at least that Tim Blair has believed that he introduced it. Evidence for his having so believed may be provided at a later time. But at the present time I think that it may be time to introduce a further concept: The Gore effect by proxy. Gore’s absence is the clock that ticks louder in the mind when the battery in the actual clock died and went unreplaced. If a sufficient number of Gorish warmists gather and are as boring as Gore in his momentous absence, then they may operate by the same heat sink rules, drain the surrounding energy, and depress the temperature.
mmmmm If this weird phenomenon happens one more time, I will have to rethink my atheism.
Aren’t they in Durban South Africa mid next year?
Anthony may like to look up some Durban records and start a book for WUWTers
God: 1, Flannery: nil (again)
On my regular business trips this autumn I felt cool in West Africa in October and in the Caribbean in November, compared with previous years. Locals confirmed my feelings by complaining about the cold. So not surprised to see that Cancun is affected. Now in the UK where it is definitely a bit cooler than normal. Canada next week so not expecting a heatwave unless that is where all the heat has gone.
[Please keep this comment here.]
Here’s some free long-range forecasting: When looking at the Arctic Oscillation, we saw last year that it became strongly negative and the Northern Hemisphere winter was brutal over Europe and North America. There are some indications that the same thing is happening again for 2010-2011 winter, but likely worse because of the major La Nina occuring. Looking at the best forecast model in the world, the ECMWF (European Centre) for the next 10-days: sea-level pressure (link)
There are essentially two blocking regimes that have been setup for the last couple weeks over the Pacific and Atlantic. This provides an Arctic express over North America and Europe. The current analysis shows two lows, one over the Gulf of Alaska and another over Eastern Canada with a decent Arctic high pressure in between. That high filters south and invades the US with brutally cold air into next weekend. Florida will see a major freeze next Monday.
At 8-10 days, a 1060-1070 mb high pressure forms over the Arctic. The situation looks to repeat itself with that incredibly cold air filtering southward in the 10-14 day range.
Hottest year ever? Not anymore…
I looked at the 2-meter temperatures from the NCEP GFS deterministic forecast model analysis and compared the 4x daily values with the new NCEP CFSR reanalysis. If the normal is defined as 1979-2009, which is obviously 10-years different AND warmer than the 1971-2000 current climate normal, 2010 remained on average 0.4 degrees C above the previous 30-year mean UNTIL August 1, when it dipped below normal. This represented the onset of the La Nina, a dramatic reversal in the global temperature anomaly. Yet, this change was temporary with a anomalously warm period globally between October 10 and November 25, coincidentally the timing of the Cancun climate confab. Since, global temperatures have dropped almost 0.8 degrees C, an incredible reversal compared to normal. If the current forecasts hold, and the last two weeks of December remain cooler than normal, 2010 will not be the warmest year ever, beating 1998. Oh well.
Nowhere to run to, nowhere to hide.
Perhaps next time they can schedule their little shindig in Hades, ought to be pretty safe against chilly conditions there.
Here in Australia, apart from a story about putting mirrors in space, I haven’t seen any mention of Cancun. One warmist reporter working for a warmist e-journal sends messages of hope for the faithful. By and large the whole thing has been ignored. Too many here trying to pay their mortgages and electricity, plus in the cities, the inflated price for desal water. Of the last, the QLD govt has mothballed their two month old desal plant because their dams are overflowing a phenomenom that the warmers said would never happen again.
I’m getting ready to travel to Milwaukee to see my brother at Christmas time. So I guess I have to take all of what warm winter clothing I have. And galoshes, too?
“More warming”, “unequivocal warming”, “unstoppable warming”, these are the usual climate blackmails by the warming fanatics. It’s important to slap actual temperature data, not temp. projections, in their faces, http://funwithgovernment.blogspot.com/2010/12/climate-blackmails-and-regulations.html
This is for all the eco-Fascists bleeding us white with “green” taxes in order, they say, “to fight global warming”:
Britain’s weather forecasters are predicting a record-breaking “once-in-a-lifetime” big freeze is on its way. The Met Office has issued severe weather warnings for Scotland, the north and east of England today and tomorrow with warnings of up to eight inches of snow today in the Yorkshire Moors.
The warning goes on, but we’ve read it all before. Just goes to prove global warming is the biggest fraud in history and leads to this…
———————————–
British Energy Bills Set “To Double”
Household energy bills could double to £2,500 a year in an unstoppable rise driven by the £200 billion “fight against climate change,” a market expert warned yesterday. Mark Todd, of energyhelpline.com, said rocketing prices will send costs for hard-pressed families and the elderly into the stratosphere. He said consumers will have to pick up the tab for new wind-farms, nuclear power plants and the networks needed to support them.
Mr Todd’s worst-case scenario forecast means bills could rise from the current £1,215 average for gas and electricity – so-called dual fuel bills – to £2,472 a year within 10 years. He spoke out as five of the biggest energy firms in Britain told MPs that energy bills will rise by up to 25% over the next decade.
That would slap another £303 on the average gas and electricity bill.
Yet campaigners Consumer Focus said that over the past seven years alone domestic dual fuel bills have soared 124% – from an average £543 a year. Mr Todd said: “Both the cold spell and rebound in the economy are contributing factors to wholesale gas prices rising by 56% in the past three months. It’s therefore no surprise that five of the big six energy companies have warned MPs that domestic bills will continue to rise. There seems to be an almost unstoppable upward trend with prices creeping up remorselessly. When price drops come they tend to be small, when price rises come they tend to be big.”
The Government is shortly expected to announce a consultation on reforming the energy market. And on Monday the Climate Change Committee laid out a blueprint for cutting “carbon” emissions which it admitted would require investment of about £150 billion in energy infrastructure up to 2030.
Mr Todd said: “The year’s price rises are only the tip of the iceberg. An unpalatable cocktail of “green” taxes, power station investment, a crumbling grid and dwindling gas supplies is set to send prices into the stratosphere. Energy bills are many homes’ biggest expense. UK consumers must shop around for a better deal.”
Head of energy at Consumer Focus, Audrey Gallacher, said: “It is up to the energy industry to show that any price rises are fair. It must be easy for customers to find the best tariff, switch easily and be confident they are paying a fair price.”
Energy UK, which speaks for the major suppliers, last night urged the public to make homes more energy efficient. (Which is what they always say).
Here’s something they didn’t say:
28 July 2010
Big freeze gives British Gas 98% profits hike
The coldest winter for 30 years helped the UK’s biggest energy firm almost double first-half profits today. Centrica said its British Gas residential arm posted a surplus of £585 million – 98% ahead of last year – as shivering households cranked up the heating and gas usage rose 8%. Centrica pushed up overall operating profits 65% to £1.56 billion.
What’s this?
Mmmmmmm!
Low temperatures and UK wind power contribution.
http://www.bmreports.com/bsp/bsp_home.htm
I see just 0.4% for the 24 hour period prior to this note – when we have had some of the coldest tempertures in the UK for a long long time – was contributed by wind power. As I write the wind speed is zero at my location and the countryside looks like fairy land with all the trees covered in a beautiful frost and it is -2.4 deg C.
The green lobby want to shut down our coal fired stations that contributed 41%.
Somehow I think they have got it wrong.
JEM says:
December 8, 2010 at 12:56 am
“Nowhere to run to, nowhere to hide.
Perhaps next time they can schedule their little shindig in Hades, ought to be pretty safe against chilly conditions there.”
Not if Al Gore shows up ;o)
@ur momisugly Tallbloke – I think you’ll find that the ‘freak’ storm is occurring INSIDE the venue….plenty of freaks are storming around in there hailing each other in a mutually denialist, head in the sand kind of way in an attempt to maintain the sham.
“What cooling!”
Jimbo says:
December 8, 2010 at 1:36 am
This cold spell is a once-in-a-lifetime event. We’ll probably never see it again.’”
mmmm is the word. We are in the up side of the current solar cycle. The really really cold stuff begins during the down side. IMHO
David Cameron and his Etonian pal, Zak Goldsmith and others, will ostrich their way to a “Green” economy despite real data that now shows wind farms without subsidies are not viable, nor is solar [at our latitude 51 – 60 odd North] and yet all that UK coal is waiting to be harnessed and new coal fired power stations could be up and running in time to avoid the massive power cuts that will happen in a few years and despite any actual data, other than computer models [rubbish ones designed by warmists] to push power prices through the roof.
PS How are the green electric cars doing in the cold?
@ur momisugly Brian Johnson uk – as a determined petrol-head, I also thought that e-cars/vehicles would be susceptible to more cold weather problems. However, I was [ admittedly ] interested to see that is not the case as shown here….
http://www.allcarselectric.com/blog/1052024_electric-cars-cant-handle-cold-weather-myth-busted
But I still like my hydrocarbon fuelled, mobile plant food generator.
I’m thinking of buying a diesel generator and running it on any appropriate oils I can get my hands on in an attempt to reduce my energy bills. I suppose the ConDem govt will only slap a tax on Mazola and it’s ilk though.
Dr. Spencer? Didn’t they claim Cancun was ‘skeptic-free’?
@ur momisugly Brian Johnson uk – sadly the e-car/vehicle seems to do ok. See below.
http://www.allcarselectric.com/blog/1052024_electric-cars-cant-handle-cold-weather-myth-busted
As a confirmed petrol-head I’ll certainly be keeping my carbonaceoulicious 4X4 until the very last moment.