"Gore effect" strikes Cancun Climate Conference 3 days in a row

From the “weather is not climate department” – New record low temperatures set in Cancun for three straight days, and more new low temperature records are possible this week.

Dr. Roy Spencer, who is in Cancun representing climate skepticism on behalf of CFACT writes on his blog:

Today’s my first full day in Cancun at COP-16, and as I emerged from my hotel room I was greeted by a brisk, dry, cool Canadian breeze.

It was 54 deg. F in Cancun this morning — a record low for the date. (BTW, Cancun is nowhere near Canada).

Al Gore is not supposed to be here…but it could be that the Gore Effect has announced his secret arrival. We will check into this.

Here’s the record for today from Weather Underground:

The old record low temperature of 57°F was bested today by four degrees.

And for the previous two days, new record lows have been set:

The weather forecast for the week ahead does not look encouraging, additional low temperature records may be set:

 

Here are existing Record Lows and Forecast Lows in upcoming days:

Wednesday:  53 °F (2003) Forecast: 51°F

Thursday: 60 °F (2000) Forecast: 59°F

Friday: 60 °F (1999) Forecast: 55°F

Saturday: 57 °F (2003) Forecast: 53°F

Sunday: 55 °F (2008) Forecast: 51°F

The Cancun delegates certainly live in “interesting times”.

=====================

h/t’s to WUWT readers Barry L. and “Amino acids in meteorites”

 

 

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Word of caution: the wunderground.com records database is insufficiently short and those records are likely way off. Note, they are only 1999-2003…
International record highs and lows are something that need to be compiled independently: Bob Hart at FSU and I have a cool page that has the ongoing world-wide records based upon longer records, 30-40 years minimum. Again, take the station data with a grain of salt, but the gist of the site is awesome.

http://coolwx.com/record
REPLY: As I understand it, the WU “records” database comes from the larger database of historical records, available on CD ROM from a number of sources. For example, the record low for a nearby town (Oroville, CA) today is 26 °F (1956) as shown here:
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KOVE/2010/12/8/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
I agree that the “actual measurement” database they have is shorter in many cases. – Anthony

wobble

Um, this Gore effect is starting to get downright creepy!

Brian H

wobble;
It’s no mystery; a natural statistical effect of being seriously wrong about nearly everything.

CodeTech

On behalf of Canada I would like to say “You’re Welcome”. We were done with that particular cold front, so we looked for the most useful place to send it. Sorry to those in the continental US that were forced to deal with it on its way past.
By the way, we got -29C from it.

Heh, delicious.
All we need now is a freak hailstorm on the beach.

Ben U.

I believe that the concept of the Gore effect was introduced by Tim Blair, or at least that Tim Blair has believed that he introduced it. Evidence for his having so believed may be provided at a later time. But at the present time I think that it may be time to introduce a further concept: The Gore effect by proxy. Gore’s absence is the clock that ticks louder in the mind when the battery in the actual clock died and went unreplaced. If a sufficient number of Gorish warmists gather and are as boring as Gore in his momentous absence, then they may operate by the same heat sink rules, drain the surrounding energy, and depress the temperature.

Baa Humbug

mmmmm If this weird phenomenon happens one more time, I will have to rethink my atheism.
Aren’t they in Durban South Africa mid next year?
Anthony may like to look up some Durban records and start a book for WUWTers

Tim

God: 1, Flannery: nil (again)

jheath

On my regular business trips this autumn I felt cool in West Africa in October and in the Caribbean in November, compared with previous years. Locals confirmed my feelings by complaining about the cold. So not surprised to see that Cancun is affected. Now in the UK where it is definitely a bit cooler than normal. Canada next week so not expecting a heatwave unless that is where all the heat has gone.

[Please keep this comment here.]
Here’s some free long-range forecasting: When looking at the Arctic Oscillation, we saw last year that it became strongly negative and the Northern Hemisphere winter was brutal over Europe and North America. There are some indications that the same thing is happening again for 2010-2011 winter, but likely worse because of the major La Nina occuring. Looking at the best forecast model in the world, the ECMWF (European Centre) for the next 10-days: sea-level pressure (link)

There are essentially two blocking regimes that have been setup for the last couple weeks over the Pacific and Atlantic. This provides an Arctic express over North America and Europe. The current analysis shows two lows, one over the Gulf of Alaska and another over Eastern Canada with a decent Arctic high pressure in between. That high filters south and invades the US with brutally cold air into next weekend. Florida will see a major freeze next Monday.
At 8-10 days, a 1060-1070 mb high pressure forms over the Arctic. The situation looks to repeat itself with that incredibly cold air filtering southward in the 10-14 day range.
Hottest year ever? Not anymore…
I looked at the 2-meter temperatures from the NCEP GFS deterministic forecast model analysis and compared the 4x daily values with the new NCEP CFSR reanalysis. If the normal is defined as 1979-2009, which is obviously 10-years different AND warmer than the 1971-2000 current climate normal, 2010 remained on average 0.4 degrees C above the previous 30-year mean UNTIL August 1, when it dipped below normal. This represented the onset of the La Nina, a dramatic reversal in the global temperature anomaly. Yet, this change was temporary with a anomalously warm period globally between October 10 and November 25, coincidentally the timing of the Cancun climate confab. Since, global temperatures have dropped almost 0.8 degrees C, an incredible reversal compared to normal. If the current forecasts hold, and the last two weeks of December remain cooler than normal, 2010 will not be the warmest year ever, beating 1998. Oh well.

JEM

Nowhere to run to, nowhere to hide.
Perhaps next time they can schedule their little shindig in Hades, ought to be pretty safe against chilly conditions there.

Lawrie Ayres

Here in Australia, apart from a story about putting mirrors in space, I haven’t seen any mention of Cancun. One warmist reporter working for a warmist e-journal sends messages of hope for the faithful. By and large the whole thing has been ignored. Too many here trying to pay their mortgages and electricity, plus in the cities, the inflated price for desal water. Of the last, the QLD govt has mothballed their two month old desal plant because their dams are overflowing a phenomenom that the warmers said would never happen again.

Larry in Texas

I’m getting ready to travel to Milwaukee to see my brother at Christmas time. So I guess I have to take all of what warm winter clothing I have. And galoshes, too?

“More warming”, “unequivocal warming”, “unstoppable warming”, these are the usual climate blackmails by the warming fanatics. It’s important to slap actual temperature data, not temp. projections, in their faces, http://funwithgovernment.blogspot.com/2010/12/climate-blackmails-and-regulations.html

Kate

This is for all the eco-Fascists bleeding us white with “green” taxes in order, they say, “to fight global warming”:
Britain’s weather forecasters are predicting a record-breaking “once-in-a-lifetime” big freeze is on its way. The Met Office has issued severe weather warnings for Scotland, the north and east of England today and tomorrow with warnings of up to eight inches of snow today in the Yorkshire Moors.
The warning goes on, but we’ve read it all before. Just goes to prove global warming is the biggest fraud in history and leads to this…
———————————–
British Energy Bills Set “To Double”
Household energy bills could double to £2,500 a year in an unstoppable rise driven by the £200 billion “fight against climate change,” a market expert warned yesterday. Mark Todd, of energyhelpline.com, said rocketing prices will send costs for hard-pressed families and the elderly into the stratosphere. He said consumers will have to pick up the tab for new wind-farms, nuclear power plants and the networks needed to support them.
Mr Todd’s worst-case scenario forecast means bills could rise from the current £1,215 average for gas and electricity – so-called dual fuel bills – to £2,472 a year within 10 years. He spoke out as five of the biggest energy firms in Britain told MPs that energy bills will rise by up to 25% over the next decade.
That would slap another £303 on the average gas and electricity bill.
Yet campaigners Consumer Focus said that over the past seven years alone domestic dual fuel bills have soared 124% – from an average £543 a year. Mr Todd said: “Both the cold spell and rebound in the economy are contributing factors to wholesale gas prices rising by 56% in the past three months. It’s therefore no surprise that five of the big six energy companies have warned MPs that domestic bills will continue to rise. There seems to be an almost unstoppable upward trend with prices creeping up remorselessly. When price drops come they tend to be small, when price rises come they tend to be big.”
The Government is shortly expected to announce a consultation on reforming the energy market. And on Monday the Climate Change Committee laid out a blueprint for cutting “carbon” emissions which it admitted would require investment of about £150 billion in energy infrastructure up to 2030.
Mr Todd said: “The year’s price rises are only the tip of the iceberg. An unpalatable cocktail of “green” taxes, power station investment, a crumbling grid and dwindling gas supplies is set to send prices into the stratosphere. Energy bills are many homes’ biggest expense. UK consumers must shop around for a better deal.”
Head of energy at Consumer Focus, Audrey Gallacher, said: “It is up to the energy industry to show that any price rises are fair. It must be easy for customers to find the best tariff, switch easily and be confident they are paying a fair price.”
Energy UK, which speaks for the major suppliers, last night urged the public to make homes more energy efficient. (Which is what they always say).
Here’s something they didn’t say:
28 July 2010
Big freeze gives British Gas 98% profits hike
The coldest winter for 30 years helped the UK’s biggest energy firm almost double first-half profits today. Centrica said its British Gas residential arm posted a surplus of £585 million – 98% ahead of last year – as shivering households cranked up the heating and gas usage rose 8%. Centrica pushed up overall operating profits 65% to £1.56 billion.

Jimbo

What’s this?

Forecasters warn Christmas could be cancelled as cold weather grips UK
Christmas will have to be put on hold this year as the ‘once in a lifetime’ cold snap threatens to tighten its grip on ice-bound Britain, forecasters are warning…….Festivities are facing a white-out with the return of snow next week and Arctic conditions set to continue beyond the 25th………Brian Gaze, of independent forecaster The Weather Outlook, said: ‘This cold spell is a once-in-a-lifetime event. We’ll probably never see it again.’”
Metro

Mmmmmmm!

oldgifford

Low temperatures and UK wind power contribution.
http://www.bmreports.com/bsp/bsp_home.htm
I see just 0.4% for the 24 hour period prior to this note – when we have had some of the coldest tempertures in the UK for a long long time – was contributed by wind power. As I write the wind speed is zero at my location and the countryside looks like fairy land with all the trees covered in a beautiful frost and it is -2.4 deg C.
The green lobby want to shut down our coal fired stations that contributed 41%.
Somehow I think they have got it wrong.

H.R.

JEM says:
December 8, 2010 at 12:56 am
“Nowhere to run to, nowhere to hide.
Perhaps next time they can schedule their little shindig in Hades, ought to be pretty safe against chilly conditions there.”

Not if Al Gore shows up ;o)

Dave from the "Hot" North East of Scotland

@ Tallbloke – I think you’ll find that the ‘freak’ storm is occurring INSIDE the venue….plenty of freaks are storming around in there hailing each other in a mutually denialist, head in the sand kind of way in an attempt to maintain the sham.
“What cooling!”

Baa Humbug

Jimbo says:
December 8, 2010 at 1:36 am
This cold spell is a once-in-a-lifetime event. We’ll probably never see it again.’”
mmmm is the word. We are in the up side of the current solar cycle. The really really cold stuff begins during the down side. IMHO

Brian Johnson uk

David Cameron and his Etonian pal, Zak Goldsmith and others, will ostrich their way to a “Green” economy despite real data that now shows wind farms without subsidies are not viable, nor is solar [at our latitude 51 – 60 odd North] and yet all that UK coal is waiting to be harnessed and new coal fired power stations could be up and running in time to avoid the massive power cuts that will happen in a few years and despite any actual data, other than computer models [rubbish ones designed by warmists] to push power prices through the roof.
PS How are the green electric cars doing in the cold?

Dave from the "Hot" North East of Scotland

@ Brian Johnson uk – as a determined petrol-head, I also thought that e-cars/vehicles would be susceptible to more cold weather problems. However, I was [ admittedly ] interested to see that is not the case as shown here….
http://www.allcarselectric.com/blog/1052024_electric-cars-cant-handle-cold-weather-myth-busted
But I still like my hydrocarbon fuelled, mobile plant food generator.
I’m thinking of buying a diesel generator and running it on any appropriate oils I can get my hands on in an attempt to reduce my energy bills. I suppose the ConDem govt will only slap a tax on Mazola and it’s ilk though.

Otter

Dr. Spencer? Didn’t they claim Cancun was ‘skeptic-free’?

Dave from the "Hot" North East of Scotland

@ Brian Johnson uk – sadly the e-car/vehicle seems to do ok. See below.
http://www.allcarselectric.com/blog/1052024_electric-cars-cant-handle-cold-weather-myth-busted
As a confirmed petrol-head I’ll certainly be keeping my carbonaceoulicious 4X4 until the very last moment.

Philip Thomas

Could record lows be helped by UHI effect? It is great that warmists could never consider using this as an excuse because they would then have to admit their record highs were subject to the same necessary adjustments.

roger

We in the UK should write to the Dept. of Energy and Climate Change with a copy to our MP to let them know in no uncertain terms that we are not taking this cr#p any longer.
That they are still pushing renewables, in the face of all the evidence and real world experience against them, entitles us to be as scathing and contemptuous as our upbringing will allow.
I have sent:-
The lack of news reportage from Cancun in the Main Stream Media, demonstrates that at last the AGW / Climate Change meme is dead and that few rats remain on the sinking ship, although some have been marooned in Mexico by the fast ebbing tide of public confidence – when is Kuhne coming back , by the way?
On his return you might wish to advise him to address his deficient intellect to the rather more pertinent part of his portfolio, ENERGY, and that a further revision of the departmental name, in the form of an abbreviation to that one word, might be considered politically astute, in a country entering it’s second week of subzero temperatures.
His first act could be to apologise for annually wasting billions of pounds, on windfarms, wavepower, miniature hydro plants, and related ill conceived scams, extorted disproportionately from the energy poor by means of the escalating Renewables Obligation. I will let him off photo voltaic as I believe his budgie crapped in the form of his signature on the paper proposing this little beauty and it went through in error.
He could then explain how a sustained 20% from renewables (excluding nuclear, bizarrely not to be subsidised) by 2020 is going to happen, when the vast arrays currently in production barely produce 1.5% of total consumption on a good day, and less than 0.2% for a surprising proportion of the year.
Anthropological CO2 is a discredited theory propounded and sustained by second rate Universities in pursuit of huge grant monies dispensed with abandon by reckless politicians. IT IS OVER – we don’t believe you!
If your real reason for insulting our intelligence with this nonsense was in fact to wean us on to a more reliable energy base than at present, which in the current world political climate is a sensible and laudable aim, then please divulge all the facts and let us have that debate.
The answer will undoubtedly be nuclear on a grand scale, just like France, which exports power daily to us through the French Interconnector – but you know that already don’t you?
But how to tell the arch idiot and nuclearphobe Chris Kuhne, there’s the rub.

Jeroen B.

Meanwhile, Britain tries to move towards an eco-communista state:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/12/08/carbon_budget_2030/
Narf.

SO they will adjourn early? Little chilly for the beach. Need to go further south next time.
SWFL is also freezing cold, hoping the crops aren’t wiped out, the inshore shallow water fish are in serious trouble.

Leigh

In response to criticism that he was off to a beach resort at Cancun, the Australian Minister for Climate Change, Greg Combet, said words to the effect “Well we’re not taking our swimmers, we’re going there to work”. Now I can see why swimmers are not an option.

Dave from the "Hot" North East of Scotland

Dear Mod(s),
am I persona non grata or have my last two attempts at commenting dropped off the radar?
If the comments are still around, please only put up the first & delete the second.
yz
Dave

This is why they try not to use global warming, but climate disruption. If record highs are the only thing you get to talk about you can’t make a political case. If you can talk about everything (including the cold in Cancun) then you can talk about a lot.
John Kehr

Amaze

“Dr. Spencer? Didn’t they claim Cancun was ‘skeptic-free’?”
Maybe they invited him so they could boast about representing all sides of the debate. He´s an easy target because of his views on ID, too (though I know only what the media has told me about his views).

Athelstan.

Amazing, Ha Ha Ha!!!
Trouble is, Dr. Roy (Spencer) is a great man (knows his stuff – like you do Anthony!!), (though)…………………………..is anybody listening?
Mind you, hit count = 62 mill’ so…………………………somebody gets it (TGFT).

Bruce Cobb

Ben U. says:
December 8, 2010 at 12:32 am
If a sufficient number of Gorish warmists gather and are as boring as Gore in his momentous absence, then they may operate by the same heat sink rules, drain the surrounding energy, and depress the temperature.
You may be onto something there, Ben. In the future, this may become known as the “Goreiolis Effect”.

Ripper

“mmmmm If this weird phenomenon happens one more time, I will have to rethink my atheism.”
Me too! There seems to be a lot of what Adam Smith called the “invisible hand” around lately.
CAGW getting a head of steam before a 100 yr solar minimum occurring
Copenhagen frozen in.
Murray Darling scheme hidden until after the election, and then bulk rain.
And now the Gore effect in Cancun.
Every time something like this occurs I exclaim “There is a God”

DJ Meredith

Not to worry about the record lows, the temps will surely be “adjusted” soon to reflect the desired upward trend.

Fernando (in Brazil)

Ryan Maue says:
December 8, 2010 at 12:07 am
Word of caution:

hummmm.
Pressure:
Last Updated: Wed Dec 8 12:15:48 UTC 2010
Maximum: 1082mb (31.94″) [SLMG:Magdalena, Bolivia]
http://coolwx.com/extreme/
But,
1082 mb (NOAA)…..
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/SLMG.html
~1010 mb
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/SLMG/2010/12/8/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
Strange.
I missed something …..

John McManus

The good doctor seems to regard Canada as the big bad boogieman of cold. Here in Nova Scotia, sunday`s high was 54F. Warm and sunny too. A beautiful May day in December.
Spenser remembers Canadian weather of yore: it isn`t like that now. The past decade has featured a Christmas day warmer than July 1 . 2008 had a November week (3) so warm, we didn`t use the furnace for 7 days.
Weird eh?

Ken Harvey

Once in a lifetime event? That can’t be right. A few weeks ago the U.K. Met Office forecast a moderate winter, if memory serves me right.

Tom in not so warm Florida

Just a reminder. Citrus fruit requires cold weather to sweeten. It evolved that way for a reason.

Dave Springer

Yet another travesty. Are we having fun yet?

North America is about to experience a similar if not a worse winter compared to the last LA NINA winter of 2007-2008. We in Ontario are already experiencing some of this with some communities having over a meter of snow already this past week. More is to come this week-end and more next week. Note that 676cm of snow in Quebec represented 22.5 feet of snow during the 2007/2008 winter
2007/2008WINTER EASTERN CANADA
Ontario and Quebec endured one of the longest and snowiest winters in years. At times, even snow enthusiasts had had enough and were desperate for spring. Every winter sees snow on the ground for weeks at a time, but not every winter has snow falling almost every day. Winter 2007-2008 was defined by the amount of snow and the record number of snow events. The Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River Basin registered its third-wettest winter in 61 years, with most of the precipitation falling as the white stuff. Among locations recording above 500 cm of snow were: Mont Ste-Anne, 676 cm; Quebec City, 558 cm (record); Muskoka, 558 cm; Gander, 534 cm; Deer Lake, 534 cm; and Bathurst, 510 cm (record). Other locations with new seasonal snowfall records were: St. Leonard (492 cm); Trois-Rivières (457.6 cm); Montréal-Mirabel International Airport (375.6 cm); Trenton (270.8 cm); Kitchener-Waterloo (251.9 cm); and Toronto Buttonville Municipal Airport (250.8 cm).
2. http://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default.asp?lang=En&n=B2EA41B2-1
http://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default.asp?lang=En&n=4CE24D99-1
Yet the gang in CANCUN and WMO are telling the world that this is record warm year and they went out their way to point out how warm winters we have in Canada. Talk about our world governments and their global warming alarmists being out of tune with the world they live in .

MattN

Has snow ever fallen in Cancun?

Bill Illis

If you look at the latest Ocean SST map, there has been significant switch in temperatures in the North Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico and leading up to Europe. Ocean SSTs are quite a bit cooler surrounding Europe for example.
It looks like this is La Nina cooling setting in. The atmospheric cooling of a La Nina impacts the Tropics directly with its east-west winds and then it also bleeds off to the north, northeast and south east which is the pattern showing up now.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2010/anomnight.12.6.2010.gif

I wonder how many bathing suits have been brought to Cancun but won’t be worn.

John McManus says:
December 8, 2010 at 4:35 am
The good doctor seems to regard Canada as the big bad boogieman of cold. Here in Nova Scotia, sunday’s high was 54F. Warm and sunny too. A beautiful May day in December.

Weird eh?

I think that’s all the doing of the negative Arctic Osscillation. Air off the eastern US gets pushed westward into Canada. Last winter from mid January on the “Arctic outbreaks” in New Hampshire was just recycled maritime air. Further west in the Central US (including Florida) missed that and got full force Arctic air.
Here’s hoping for low heating bills again. (Caveat – here’s hoping for lotsa snow too, new snowblower gets delivered today!)

Atomic Hairdryer

Although pro-CAGW folks get called warmists, they’re actually anti-warming and constantly praying for a reduction in temperatures. So when you accumulate a critical mass of anti-warming believers they presumably generate anti-heat, as demonstrated at the last two COPs and too a lesser extent, during the passing of the UK’s econonomic destruction. I mean Climate Change Act.
Some climate scientists already have peer-reviewed papers demonstrating how strong belief allows temperatures to be inverted with ease, and these have been widely accepted by the anti-warming community as evidence of climate change. This is after all the root of the ‘hide the decline’ problem which clearly demonstrates how a negative signal is proof of anti-heat. It’s warming, but not warming as has been classicly understood.
As this is a somewhat radical hypothesis, further research funds are necessary to enable me to conduct an in-depth study involving travel to exotic destinations and locking anti-warming believers in warehouses. This will be a controlled experiment replicating the trade show environment as seen in Copenhagen and Cancun. Limited communications will be allowed from inside the climate labs to prevent contamination. Myself and a team of dedicated researchers will perform a thorough detection and attribution study to determine if there are any changes to night time temperatures or nightlife, and beaches to determine impact on sea levels. 10 years of data collected at the most topical, tropical hot spots around the equator should allow this theory to be tested in a scientific manner.
Cash, cheques or paypal accepted, sorry, no carbon tokens.

Pamela Gray

Bill, it’s that southward flow of cold water that makes me go hmmmmm. If this cold water stays around during the next ice buildup season down there, we might see the beginnings of Antarctic ice bridges, something that has declined in previous decades. If those bridges begin to build up, even in places we haven’t seen in our life times, is it possible we might see the beginnings of an ice bridge crossing the Antarctic strait? And might this deflect the rather chilly circumpolar current into the Atlantic at a greater volume than currently is the case? And might this infusion of cold water substantially cool the Atlantic ocean?

Henry chance

Is the carnival barker named Joe Romm reporting this news? Or is he still clinging to ice stories? When he attacks Joe Bastardi, the Gore effect fights back.

Jeroen B.

@Ripper:
“Every time something like this occurs I exclaim “There is a God””
Not only that, He must have a sense of humor too 🙂