From the Cliff Mass Weather Blog
The media is going hyperbolic about heat waves, claiming that global warming/climate change caused by human CO2 emissions is producing a huge, sudden uptick in massive heat events. The greatest in the historical record. Heatwaves are all over the planet! Phoenix, Arizona is a frequently noted poster child of the new heatwave regime.
Here are a few examples of the headlines, I could provide dozens more just like it.
The Quiz
Before I discuss the situation, let me provide two possibilities for you to consider.
(1) Human emissions of greenhouse gases, such as CO2, are slowly warming the planet. During the past century the Earth has warmed by roughly 1°C and human emissions could have contributed much (but not all) to the warming. El Nino periods contribute to temporary warming, and local warming due to urbanization (urban heat island) is also important. Most heatwaves are predominantly natural phenomena, with minor enhancement from global warming/climate.
(2) Heatwaves are predominantly forced by increasing greenhouse gases. The entire planet is experiencing unparalleled heat due to human-caused climate change. By reducing greenhouse gas emissions, heat waves could be greatly weakened or prevented.
Which do you think is the correct answer? The one supported by observations and peer-reviewed science?
The correct answer is (1). Heatwaves are mainly caused by natural variability, with humans enhancing them a small amount. Let me prove it to you and describe some of the hype and deception going on in the media and by others.
It is important to understand that current heatwaves are localized, with substantial portions of the planet experiencing cooler-than-normal conditions as well. Most of the planet is NOT experiencing unusual warmth.
Consider the observed temperature pattern on Tuesday night at 11 PM, or more exactly the difference in the observed temperature from normal (see below). Red areas are above normal and blue/green are below normal.
The figures shows that the Earth has BOTH heatwaves and cold waves going on at that time.
For example, the Southwest US. is warm, while much of the eastern U.S. is colder than normal. Northern Europe is cold, while southern Italy is experiencing heat.
So heatwaves are localized (and transient) conditions and only a small portion of the globe is experiencing unusual warmth. Greenhouse warming from greenhouse gases is much more uniform.
So what is causing the localized warming? The answer is very evident if we plot the upper-level map (for 500 hPa, about 18,000 ft) at the same time (see below). Blue areas indicate troughing (low pressure) and red areas indicate ridging (high pressure).
The warm areas are closely associated with ridging aloft and cool areas with upper-level troughing. Ridging is associated with sinking air and warming. The opposite with troughing. Ridges and troughs also have wind patterns that can move tropical warmyh poleward (and vice versa).
Such wave patterns are quite natural. There is no convincing evidence that the atmosphere becomes wavier (thus with more heatwaves and cold waves) under global warming. I have read all the literature on this and have published on the topic myself in the peer-reviewed literature.
The waviness of the upper-level flow was particularly high-amplitude this winter and spring, producing enhanced cooling in some areas and warming in others. Such as the cool/wet conditions in California, and warmth in southern Canada.
Let me repeat: there is no reason to think this waviness is other than the expression of the natural variability of the atmosphere.
With the general temperature of the planet slowly rising from human greenhouse gas emissions (by roughly 1°C), the heatwaves should be about 1C warmer and cold waves about 1C weaker.
This is exactly what is observed.
By the way, extreme cold kills FAR more people each year than heatwaves, so global warming is actually reducing deaths from extreme temperatures (you won’t hear much about this in the media!)
But there is something else that is enhancing warming right now.
This spring El Nino rapidly turned on, and El Ninos warm the planet! Below is the key marker of El Nino: the temperature in the central tropical Pacific (the Nino 3.4 area). A VERY rapid and early warming during April and May.
The oscillation between El Nino and La Nina (cold water), is a natural model of atmospheric variability.
Would we have had major heatwaves without human-caused global warming?
You bet we would. We certainly had substantial heatwaves (some as strong or stronger than this month) in the past (such as in the 1930s). Were the heatwaves this week enhanced modestly (like 1°C) by global warming. Quite possibly. So a place like Phoenix would have had a high temperature of 115F instead of 117F. Pretty much the same impacts.
Media Deception Regarding Phoenix, Arizona
The media has been particularly interested in the recent warm spell in Phoenix, in which they are headlining its record for the number of days above 110F.
As I will describe below, there is more than a little deception going on here. The 110-degree approach is a prime example of misinformation, and the Phoenix temperature record is highly suspect because of massive development and a huge urban heat island effect.
“Cherry Picking” Statistics
The term cherry picking can be defined (Wikipedia) as:
Cherry picking, suppressing evidence, or the fallacy of incomplete evidence, is the act of pointing to individual cases or data that seem to confirm a particular position while ignoring a significant portion of related and similar cases or data that may contradict that position.
The media and some climate activist groups have been advertising that Phoenix has now exceeded 110F a record number of times in a row. Thus, something unusual and scary is occurring.
But why 110F? Did you wonder about that?
They did this deliberately because if they had picked another temperature they would have gotten a completely different answer, one in which Phoenix was not unusually warm.
Consider a choice of two-degree difference (112F). This year drops to 6th place!
How about something more unusual (115F)? 2023 drops to 8th place
Or let’s consider more “garden variety” heat (105F). This year remains in 8th place.
Do you feel deceived and tricked? This was a deliberate attempt to cherry-pick statistics to push an agenda. Not good.
But the selection of Phoenix is worse than that.
Phoenix has perhaps the most profound and rapidly growing urban heat island in the nation.
Phoenix has been one of the most rapidly growing cities in the US (see below) and all the construction (concrete, buildings, sources of heat) results in profound warming, something known as the urban heat island effect.
Do you want to see Phoenix’s heat island in action this week?
Below are the temperatures on Tuesday during the late afternoon. 117F at the Phoenix airport but 111F just outside of the metro area. This difference is quite typical for the city.
So even if there was no global warming going on, Phoenix’s temperature would have substantially increased over time due to the rapid development of the city. Such urban heat island effects seriously degrade the temperature records, producing artificial warming.
Want another example? SeaTac Airport, whose third runway and local development have impacted (warmed) the temperature record there.
Finally, let me note that although the Earth is slowly warming from human-induced greenhouse warming, there is no evidence that heat waves are being amplified or enhanced over this base warming. So all the panicky headlines are really without merit.
Want to see an example of this? Below are the annual high temperatures at Olympia, Washington, with a linear trend line added for your benefit. Annual high temperatures have gone up about 2F, roughly the same as the global warming signal.
Claiming that a sudden and rapid increase in heat waves is occurring due to global warming may be good clickbait for the media and a potent tool for climate activists, but it is simply not true.
Finally, let me note that headlines early this month that the Earth was warmer than any period during the past 125,000 years were really nonsense. But I will leave that discussion to another blog.
For more on heat waves, check out our Earth’s Temperature page at EverythingClimate.com.
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Omitting the 1930’s is the usual trick. Start the graph in 1970, in the middle of the global cooling scare.
In keeping with urban heat due to population increases, Phoenix International Airport is the 22nd busiest in the world and traffic there is at its highest ever.
Global warming makes people fly.
and they love to fly to that roasting city! 🙂
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-02243-9
“This index defines a heat wave as a period lasting at least four days with an average temperature that would only be expected to persist over four days once every 10 years, based on the historical record.”
Because it’s a cut off determined by the 90 percentile in the base period, a one degree increase in global temperatures might lead to 11% of days being above the cut off now. The days in that extra 1% might have been 89-89.9 °F 50 years ago and are 90-90.9°F now, for example, and not necessarily fossil fuel related. You wouldn’t know it without thermometer readings, but the stats will show a 10% increase in days at heatwave level. When it’s four days in row, the imperceptible increase appears as a 40% increase in the days that you experience heat stress.
And a balmy four winter days that don’t require you to wear more than a light jacket gets called a heatwave.
Its snake oil stuff.
Start during “global cooling,” end at “global warming,” blame it on human fossil fuel emissions, rinse and repeat. Asses. See Tom Hallas on point comment above.
Heat waves have always been and always been news:
17 Jul 1896 – HEAT-WAVE IN EUROPE.
06 Jul 1949 – Europe’s Heat-wave.
08 Aug 1933 – HEAT WAVE IN EUROPE.
25 Jan 1899 – “HEAT” WAVES THAT HAVE BEEN.
11 Aug 1911 – TERRIBLE HEAT WAVE.
20 Aug 1932 – Heat Wave in Europe.
09 Sep 1898 – GREAT HEAT WAVE.
16 Jan 1939 – TERRIBLE CLIMAX TO HEAT WAVE.
10 Jan 1939 – HEAT WAVE.
21 Jun 1917 – HEAT WAVE IN FRANCE.
That’s just a sample from the National Library of Australia newspaper archive.
Together with the perennial forest fires from NH summers to SH summers as has been noted they now provide a useful tool to keep the hysteria constantly on the boil.
The highest temperatures in the post walk/ride a horse era in Boulder occurred in July 1954. There were 4 consecutive days over 100F with 104F being the highest. There has not been 4 consecutive days over 90F yet this summer. It appears that this may occur next week.
At this moment it is 64F.
As stated above, the “worldwide” heat wave is actually local. I’m heading to London in a few days and it appears that I need to pack a jacket.
The Minnesota DNR posts the weather records of the Minnesota State Fair, held since 1885:
Although a wide variety of weather has greeted Fair-goers over the years, it’s the late-summer heat waves that are perhaps most memorable. By far the highest temperature in the Fair’s history was 104 degrees F, on September 10, 1931. In fact, the second-highest temperature ever recorded during the Fair was 99 F, notched the same year but two days earlier. Not surprisingly, the 1931 Fair is the current record-holder for high temperatures, averaging 92.6 F, which is 2.7 F higher than the runner-up (1922). It is worth noting that the 1931 Fair ran eight days, from September 5-12, whereas the Fair currently runs 12 days, making it less likely to sustain such high temperatures over that longer period. On the other hand, 1931’s record is even more impressive considering that the entire Fair took place during September, when extremes of heat become increasing rare.
Recent steamy State Fair conditions were experienced during 2013, which was the third warmest on record and also had a record six days with 90-degree high temperatures. 2012 was quite warm as well, with an average daily maximum temperature of 87.1 degrees. The last six State Fairs, however (2014 through 2019), generally have lacked hot weather, with no 90-degree high temperatures recorded in any of those years. There wasn’t even an 80 degree maximum temperature in 2019.
The coolest Minnesota State Fair was during the six-day run of the Fair from September 5-10 1898 with an average maximum temperature of 64.2 degrees. The coldest maximum temperature for the Fair is 52 degrees on September 7, 1911, and the coldest minimum temperature is 33 degrees on September 13, 1890. The coolest Fair morning in recent years was a chilly 36 degrees on September 1, 1974.
Watch out for that big horn ?
😉
The only thing I understand about Global Warming™, Climate Change™ is these/it appear to degrade the intelligence of politicians, bureaucrats, media journalists and parts of the population, (though that part of the population will follow any fad religion anyway).
The big question is:
When the west finally reaches nutty zero, the economy has gone down the drain and the climate still keep changing what then?
Hmmmmm, you’ve the makings of a climate scientist..
i.e. a propensity for Cause & Effect Error/Reversal
Since the very ‘word go‘ it’s been my theory that mental degradation is what’s causing ‘global warming’
Why: The entire thing is premised on Magical Thinking = self brainwashing and is EXACTLY as exhibited in long term users and consumers of Depressant Substances.
Classically and as we all have experience of : Alcoholics and drunks.
They are:
dull witted, slow and forgetfulargumentative and belligerenthumourlessendlessly exaggerating and lying about ‘events’ and their own ‘powers’constantly appealing to authority e.g. esp computersavid consumers and creators of chatter & gossipprone to fantastical thoughts & imaginations (Paranoid)set in their thoughts & waystribalistic (consensus)prone to violence, verbal as well as physicalin a state of constant ill-health – utterly convinced that their chosen ‘poison’ will actually make them better whether it caused the illness or not
Because the way the human brain operates and has the property of Homeostasis, ALL substances that change your thinkings/feelings are = Depressants.
Yes certainly alcohol, cannabis and sugar are depressants but so are nicotine, cocaine, ecstasy, caffeine etc etc
Allied to them is that the things which naturally protect our physical and mental health are in rapid and self-imposed decline and deficiency.
That means all the Vitamins A thro E but also the metallic trace elements, especially Magnesium, Sodium, Lithium, Copper, Zinc, Manganese and Cobalt.
Also Iodine and Selenium.
The exact same thing causing deficiency of those is what causes heat domes, heat waves, resistant ridges, wildfires, flash floods and dust storms.
In fact, all of North America is uninhabitable by humans UNLESS they take positive/active measures to supplement themselves with Iodine.
Without Iodine – every function and metabolic process in the human body simply crashes (and burns)
And with that, science/education/politics/relationships/society/civilisation all promptly follow into that inferno.
That is = The Definition of Hell
Then what? They’ll find a new crisis to tax us!
maybe we’ll get years of extreme cold, the glaciers will advance, people will be freezing/starving to death with no ff and a failed “green grid”
the climate lunatics will then tell us we must start burning coal to fix the problem
No, they’ll tell you THAT is because of industrialization and our use of fossil fuels too, and we must therefore use even less.
Control over energy use, and the power and money that brings, has always been at the core of the climate witch hunts.
An El Nino began forming between March and April of this year.
All El Ninos are caused by decreased levels of SO2 aerosols in our atmosphere.
Ergo, this El Nino is being caused by decreased levels of SO2 aerosol emissions in our atmosphere
Warming will continue until there are SO2 aerosols from another volcanic eruption to quench it.
This is serious!
See “Definitive proof that CO2 does not cause global warming”
https://doi.org/10.30574/wjarr.2023.19.1.1329
Well, they had to go somewhere to find their cherries since “climate Change” has left all of Europe except the extreme southern portions and is going to gone for some time it appears.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F1gBlpoWwAA0bXZ?format=png&name=900×900
Much hype about the record of 115 deg. days being broken. Never mind that the old record of 8 days was set in June 1974 the same week that Time Magazine warned that an Ice Age was coming.
Unprecedented Propaganda | Real Climate Science
Here Here! To Cliff Mass. I love facts, reason, data and common sense. We need more scientists rather than Chicken Littles like Mann psuedo-scientist.
Nitpick incoming. The affirmation of agreement to which you refer is actually “Hear Hear!” Sounds the same, but makes no logical sense with either spelling.
On reflection, we might both have it wrong.. maybe it’s “Hear here”, meaning “I hear you over here, and agree with your assessment of the situation”.. the English language can be a funny thing sometimes. I guess you would have to ask whoever it was who first used the phrase what they meant.
“Hear Hear!”
Heard often in parliament! I sometimes watch it on YouTube. Kinda funny with that chatter since Congress is the opposite- often few people are present- and they all tend to be morbidly quite or bored- so it’s fun to watch the Brits show some response to speakers. Seems way more democratic.
Here’s (or is it “Hear’s”?) some info I came across.
https://www.grammarly.com/blog/here-here-vs-hear-hear/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hear,_hear
Two days ago WUWT kindly published my article on corruption of science my money and power.
Cliff Mass has here added another example.
That makes, in my personal reading, over a dozen corrupted examples in that last 2 days.
Here is another allegation –
mericanchemistry.com/chemistry-in-america/news-trends/blog-post/2023/did-epa-dismiss-recommendations-from-the-national-academy-of-sciences-and-its-own-best-practices-in-its-draft-formaldehyde-assessment
Something has got to give.
Perhaps it could start with authors accepting the reality that the can corrupt science.
Geoff S
Nice work Cliff.
Circulation in the western Pacific is still easterly and another typhoon is forming in the Philippine Sea.
The overarching fact is that the rise of CO2, whether human-assisted or not, will not be checked. So get used to it. And thank goodness
Most person’s worry list doesn’t include CO2- not even in the top 100.
At first sight this will be wildly Off Topic – but give it a minute to soak in.
Because what the guy here (Ian Botham – legendary cricketer) is saying/describing is exactly the IPCC and all of Climate Science
That contrived and wildly exaggerated claims are being made by folks who are effectively anonymous so as to make out that the whole rest of everybody is guilty of some awful sin
While folks making such claims have somehow ‘stolen the high ground’ and made themselves immune to criticism. In part as there’s so many of them and the ‘reports’ they produce are so voluminous and unreadable by 99.99% of everybody…
It is somehow that now, just to be accused of something, makes you as guilty as hell = the very essence of Witch Hunting
This is the mental derangement and its everywhere.
Irrational paranoia of something no-one is capable of understanding, nor really wants to, while the only ‘data’ they have is anonymous, imaginary, adjusted and contrived.
Or unverifiable as in all output from Sputniks
https://www.gbnews.com/sport/england-cricket-ian-botham-racism-news
Meanwhile: Grauniad continue raging ranting raving in their version of Alice’s Wonderland.
Are they trying to make the weather into some deranged image of themselves – is it some sort of Rain Dance we’re witnessing?
Headline:””Hailstorms have hit northern Italy as near-record temperatures begin to ebb, but forecasters have warned of a fourth heatwave hitting southern Europe next week, with temperatures of up to 48C
The Groan
Does anyone still recall the days before climate madness took hold and in the UK we never heard about other people’s weather unless it brought about massive loss of life and aid was sent by our government?
Now that the media have become fixated on climate, every slightly abnormal weather event, anywhere in the world, gets reported here, giving the false impression that the frequency of these events is increasing and this is claimed to be due to climate change. In reality there is no increase, just a perception of one in the public mind brought about by increased frquency of reporting. It’s insidious.
It’s like pointing to inundation of coastal areas from a storm tide as sea level rise. Which the media has done to pretend Hansen was some sort of seer.
No, but it is causing unreliable renewables to be even more unreliable
https://www.energylivenews.com/2023/07/21/sse-reports-29-shortfall-in-renewable-output-due-to-weather/
It would be hilarious if not so stupid
The only way the media is going to make me believe that this heat wave is serious sh-t is when they show me a kid frying an egg on the sidewalk!
The reason for the heat waves is because everywhere is warming TWICE as fast as everywhere else.
That’s old news. According to the Grauniad the Arctic is now warming more than four times as fast as anywhere else!
Back in the 90’s my cousin had a job that required occasional travel, mostly in the US but sometimes abroad. I can distinctly remember him remarking about how oppressively hot and humid it was when he got off the plane in Phoenix for the first time. And this coming from someone born and raised in Maryland, where the humidity can reach pretty sickening levels and heat indexes can soar over 100 fairly often in summer.
Not only is there the heat island, but also increased water use in what used to just be a patch of desert. This adds human-caused humidity to an already hot place. The heat in Phoenix is natural, but the humidity isn’t. So in that regard, yes, the heat waves are man-made, with increased humidity and heat island effects. But only in cities….
The argument that has been made about the atmospheric CO2 effect upon global air temperature is that the CO2 retards the passage of heat rays reflected from the earth’s surface after it is struck by rays from the Sun. Therefore, it would appear that CO2 would have no role in causing the level of heat but only in retaining some of the heat. What is doubtful is whether an atmospheric CO2 level of only 4/100ths of one percent of the atmosphere would have any detectable impact upon global air temperature.
You lose points for accepting the “CO2 drives temperature” nonsense for which there is no empirical support, but your common sense regarding the conflating of, and propagandizing of, weather as a supposed indication of human-induced “climate catastrophe” is always well said.
“You lose points for accepting the “CO2 drives temperature” nonsense for which there is no empirical support”
Yes, too much assuming going on.
As a resident living in The Middle of Nowhere in southeastern Washington State, this is the comment I posted today on the Cliff Mass blog:
==============
Here are some points offered within the context that a climate activist, Joe Biden, is now President of the United States; and that another climate activist, Jay Inslee, is now Governor of Washington State. In addition, our climate activist governor is now supported by a climate activist state legislature.
(1) — Reaching Net Zero energy for the entire world requires a credible strategy for convincing China, India, and all the Third World nations to abandon their reliance on fossil fuels. No such credible strategy has been offered by the Biden Administration.
(2) — Joe Biden has legal authority under current law to declare a climate emergency and to issue an executive order which imposes an immediate fossil energy lockdown on the American economy. He has not done so.
(3) — Reaching Net Zero in the power generation sector by 2035 requires that on average, one coal-fired or gas-fired power plant must be shut down each and every month between now and the year 2035. But the current pace of plant closures is far less than the pace actually needed to achieve Net Zero in the power sector by 2035.
(4) — A credible energy transition plan for Net Zero electricity by 2035 must identify each and every fossil power plant targeted for closure, including its scheduled closure date. No such plan has been published by the Biden Administration.
(5) — Fully replacing fossil power with wind & solar power by the year 2035 on a one-for-one megawatt-hour basis is clearly impossible. A credible plan is needed which identifies which portion of the shuttered power generation is to be replaced by wind & solar, and which portion is to be covered by strictly-enforced energy conservation measures. No such plan has been offered by the Biden Administration.
(6) — A credible energy transition plan must also identify the most promising candidate projects for new-build wind & solar farms. That plan must include the procurement and installation of battery backup for intermittent wind and solar energy production; and for numerous and extensive upgrades to the power transmission infrastructure. No such plan has been published by the Biden Administration.
(7) — Roughly 3% of the CO2 emitted globally is emitted from jet airliners, of which Boeing airliners represent approximately half of the world’s airliner fleet. Airbus is under pressure to produce a hydrogen-powered airliner by the mid-2030’s, and might actually get there if everything goes right. In contrast, Boeing has no firm plans whatsoever to produce an emissions free jet airliner in the near to mid-term future.
(8) — If Jay Inslee and our state legislators are truly sincere in their climate activism, they must demand that Boeing either cease production of fossil-powered jet airliners within a decade, or else lose all the tax and financial incentives they receive for building airliners in Washington State. Neither Jay Inslee nor our climate activist state legislators have done so.
(9) — California has adopted a series of carbon emission regulations governing petroleum product refining which will, consciously and deliberately, result in the eventual closure of all nineteen refineries now operating in that state. Governor Jay Inslee, the state legislature, and WS-DOE could adopt similar regulations targeted at the six refineries now operating in Washington State, thus forcing their eventual closure. They have not done so.
Here is a question for all the climate activists who read and comment on the Cliff Mass weather blog: Is your personal energy, your personal commitment to the cause, and your activist enthusiasm not better spent in convincing Joe Biden, Jay Inslee, and the Washington State legislature to walk the talk of their professed concerns about climate change?
==============
From the article: “By the way, extreme cold kills FAR more people each year than heatwaves, so global warming is actually reducing deaths from extreme temperatures (you won’t hear much about this in the media!)”
I was watching CBS News a couple of days ago, and their meteorologist said that heat waves kill more people than any other weather event.
Then today, I watched CBS News again, and the anchor repeated this falsehood.
So apparently everyone at CBS News thinks heatwaves are more deadly than anything, even though the data shows clearly that cold kills something like 10 times as many people as does heat. So where does CBS News get their information? Obviously, not from a reliable source.
As a meteorologist for 44 years, I consider Professor Mass to be an elite, enlightened authority on this topic. He always adheres to rock solid meteorological and climate principles, along with empirical data.
This article is one of his best and belongs in the WUWT Hall of Fame!
A principle that he taught, which I’ve shared with thousands of others at numerous times, should be repeated again here:
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-golden-rule-of-climate-extremes.html
The Golden Rule
“Considering the substantial confusion in the media about this critical issue, let me provide the GOLDEN RULE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES”
Here it is:
“The more extreme a climate or weather record is, the greater the contribution of natural variability.”
“Or to put it a different way, the larger or more unusual an extreme, the higher proportion of the extreme is due to natural variability.”
++++++++++
Copied, are the 850 temperature anomalies for the Northern Hemisphere from this morning. They show a similar pattern that Cliff noted on his map of 2m temperature anomalies from Wednesday, 7-19-23.
Small areas with yellows that had the greatest heat compared to average…….probably just less than 5% of the N.Hemisphere.
Small areas with blues which identify the coolest patches.
The vast majority of the N.Hemisphere (90% or so) is in a green-ish shade that represents close to average.
What I’ve noted for quite some time is that the media will pick all the hottest spots on the map to report from during the Summer and pretend they represent the entire planet. This year has been the worst yet.
They do that for other weather anomalies during the year but this is prime time for climate charlatanism because the Summer is the hottest season and it ALWAYS features hot spots.
We still have the same atmospheric principles and meteorological systems that we did 100 years ago but have superimposed the added heat from greenhouse gas and natural warming.
The greatest increase has taken place in the coldest places/high latitudes on the planet during the Winters. The driest places have also warmed a bit more than the average increase of 1 deg. C.
I agree with Cliff’s statement on his surface temperature map for the Phoenix area and saying that in July 2023, a high temperature of 117 in Phoenix, even with the urban heat island effect of the much greater population today but only replacing the environment with the July 1923 atmosphere that had 116 ppm less CO2(420-304 ppm), would likely feature a high of around 115. Around 2 deg. hotter today from the increase in CO2 alone..
Take away all the people/development and also dropping the CO2 back to 304 ppm (the 1923 level) would likely take off an additional 4 degrees to 111 deg. F.
Some of the areas on Cliff’s map that were 6 deg. F cooler outside of the city also have slightly higher elevations, so that’s why I only guesstimated a more conservative 4 degree contribution from the UHI vs 6 deg. F in the outlying areas.
So the urban heat island contribution (+4 Deg. F) is probably double the greenhouse gas warming contribution (+2 Deg F) for Phoenix in this case.
I’ll be on a tv show called “Ladies of Another View” that’s broadcast out of Bismark, ND next week to discuss this exact issue.
https://www.bek.news/ladiesofanotherview
Perfect timing!
Bismarck will be having a heat wave next week with a high temperature getting well into the 90’s on several days. These are the 2 hottest days below:
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=189&y=165&site=bis&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=189&map_y=164
Tuesday
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 93. South wind 11 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Tuesday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. Southeast wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 95. South wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
How hot is this compared to the past?
Let’s look at the record books for those dates in Bismarck, ND and compare the numbers with the 10 hottest temperatures for both of those dates.:
Out of the top 20 hottest days listed, only 3 of them occurred in the last 3+ decades.
5 of them were in the 1930’s. The record is 106 on both dates.
This is consistent with the other states in the US.
23 of the 50 all time hottest US state record high temperatures were set in the 1930’s and still stand today.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_territory_temperature_extremes
“the greenhouse gas warming contribution (+2 Deg F) for Phoenix in this case”
That is an assumption. There is no evidence this is the case.
Greenhouse gas warming from CO2 is not just a speculative theory. It’s based on a law in physics that has been proven with empirical data, including accurate measurements in the atmosphere.
Those measurements show that the IPCC models are using equations that add 42% more forcing than the actual measured amount in the REAL atmosphere. When we obtained that powerful empirical data, what did the IPCC do?
They ignored it!
That persistent refusal to adjust the models down to observations is solid evidence that the IPCC modeling products are NOT rooted in the scientific method but instead are political tools.
RADIATIVE FORCING BY CO2 OBSERVED AT TOP OF ATMOSPHERE FROM 2002-2019
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1911.10605.pdf
“The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report predicted 0.508±0.102 Wm−2RF resulting from this CO2 increase, 42% more forcing than actually observed. The lack of quantitative long-term global OLR studies may be permitting inaccu-racies to persist in general circulation model forecasts of the effects of rising CO2 or other greenhouse gasses.”
Additional information about busted global climate models:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/57636/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/68079/
50-Year U.S. Summer Temperature Trends: ALL 36 Climate Models Are Too Warm
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2022/10/50-year-u-s-summer-temperature-trends-all-36-climate-models-are-too-warm/
The U.S. warming in Dr. Spencer’s study is almost all coming from the western 1/3rd of the country. The Midwest has actually seen a slight cooling trend during the Summers during this period.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/07/18/media-chases-climate-enhanced-heat-waves-misses-data-showing-they-are-less-frequent/
The U.S. warming in Dr. Spencer’s study is mostly coming from the western 1/3rd of the country. The Midwest has actually seen a significant REDUCTION in the number of hot days during the Summers of this period.
Thanks to Anthony for the graph!
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/07/18/media-chases-climate-enhanced-heat-waves-misses-data-showing-they-are-less-frequent/
Here’s a map that shows the temperature for record hottest in each state and the date that it was set:
https://wonderingmaps.com/us-hottest-days/
Even more powerful, the map below shows only the years of the record hottest temperature and color codes them by decade(s).
Right after this map came out in 2019, Colorado broke their state temperature record. Washington state also broke their state temperature record in 2021.
So now we have 4 all time state hottest records set in the 2+ decades since the year 2000.
Compare that to 23 all time hottest temperatures in just the decade of the 1930’s in the purple color below. They still stand in 2023!
https://cei.org/blog/post-heat-wave-reflections/
“So heatwaves are localized (and transient) conditions and only a small portion of the globe is experiencing unusual warmth.So heatwaves are localized (and transient) conditions and only a small portion of the globe is experiencing unusual warmth.”
It depends on whether the circulation is meridional or zonal. The 1936 heatwave extended over larger areas, the 1540 heatwave was more widespread. Tony Heller has the right idea calling it global, read the last comment on the post for how the Sun discretely drove both of those heatwaves:
https://realclimatescience.com/2022/06/worldwide-heatwave-and-drought-of-1540/