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Guest essay by Eric Worrall
A new study published by Adelaide University, claims that ocean acidification and global warming will cause a major collapse of ocean food chains.
The abstract of the study (the fully study is paywalled);
Global alteration of ocean ecosystem functioning due to increasing human CO2 emissions
Ivan Nagelkerken1 and Sean D. Connell
Significance
People are not only concerned about climate change and its effects on plant and animal diversity but also about how humans are fundamentally changing the globe’s largest ecosystem that sustains economic revenue and food for many countries. We show that many species communities and ocean habitats will change from their current states. Ocean acidification and warming increase the potential for an overall simplification of ecosystem structure and function with reduced energy flow among trophic levels and little scope for species to acclimate. The future simplification of our oceans has profound consequences for our current way of life, particularly for coastal populations and those that rely on oceans for food and trade.
Abstract
Rising anthropogenic CO2 emissions are anticipated to drive change to ocean ecosystems, but a conceptualization of biological change derived from quantitative analyses is lacking. Derived from multiple ecosystems and latitudes, our metaanalysis of 632 published experiments quantified the direction and magnitude of ecological change resulting from ocean acidification and warming to conceptualize broadly based change. Primary production by temperate noncalcifying plankton increases with elevated temperature and CO2, whereas tropical plankton decreases productivity because of acidification. Temperature increases consumption by and metabolic rates of herbivores, but this response does not translate into greater secondary production, which instead decreases with acidification in calcifying and noncalcifying species. This effect creates a mismatch with carnivores whose metabolic and foraging costs increase with temperature. Species diversity and abundances of tropical as well as temperate species decline with acidification, with shifts favoring novel community compositions dominated by noncalcifiers and microorganisms. Both warming and acidification instigate reduced calcification in tropical and temperate reef-building species. Acidification leads to a decline in dimethylsulfide production by ocean plankton, which as a climate gas, contributes to cloud formation and maintenance of the Earth’s heat budget. Analysis of responses in short- and long-term experiments and of studies at natural CO2 vents reveals little evidence of acclimation to acidification or temperature changes, except for microbes. This conceptualization of change across whole communities and their trophic linkages forecast a reduction in diversity and abundances of various key species that underpin current functioning of marine ecosystems.
The obvious question – why didn’t this hypothesised collapse occur during previous epochs with high CO2 levels, such as the Cretaceous Age? According to Wikipedia, the Cretaceous age enjoyed CO2 levels of around 1700ppm. Yet the Cretaceous was also the age of the Dinosaurs – the period was characterised by large tropical jungles, shallow warm seas, and a vast abundance of life, both marine and terrestrial. I suggest it takes a pretty robust food chain to support a predator like the Tyrannosaurus Rex.
Regarding the alleged impact of acidification on calcifying species like corals, it seems a shame the Adelaide boffins didn’t compare notes with their colleagues down the road in Perth, who recently discovered that corals have the ability to manage their internal pH levels – they grow just fine in a wide range of naturally occurring CO2 levels. Or the recent Woods hole study, which demonstrated coral reefs have astonishing resilience and ability to thrive, even in the most extreme conditions.
As for the direct effect of warming – even if warming occurs, the net result in most cases would surely be a slight shift in geographic habitat. For example, the range of temperatures on offer as you travel along say the Australian East Coast far exceeds temperature changes most alarmists predict will occur in the next century, due to global warming.
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Barrie Harrop lives in Adelaide. Need I say more?
Yes, you need to do more than dismiss someone’s work based on where they are from.
The work has far deeper flaws and ad hom attacks should be rooted out. It weakens the strength of the valid critique.
Yes, you need to do more than dismiss someone’s work based on where they are from.
——————-
True, but a truth which might diminish with proximity to outback Bundanyabba.
Be a bad arguer to defeat a bad arguer to appeal to ignorance ?
Very risky.
High potential to backfire.
no you don’t … debating frauds and liars is useless …
Doris and Frank
Doris
Frank, stop engaging Boris, he’s a lair, wears women’s clothing and teaches at that fake university.
Frank
Doris, but so does our son.
Doris
That’s different Frank. Our son is a good boy.
Now if Frank zeroed in on the weakness of Boris’ argument, and presented that to Doris, it would make it much harder for Doris to blow him off.
A few facts
All people have lied at some point in their life.
All people have exaggerated/spun a yarn.
Some men wear women’s clothing.
Some people went to better schools than others.
If you ad hom someone, you distract the brain from listening to the real meat of what you have.
Knute,
Ye don’t like ‘yabba joakes, eh?
Alan
I’m actually a pretty vicious banterer, but I do it with friends who know me well and give it back as good as I give it. Sarcasm and banter is wonderful in relationships that are secure, but poison in the casual world. I sense that you understand that as well.
You do know who Harrop is, right??
Just a note.
Perth is closer to Jakarta than it is to Canberra.
Australia is a seriously big country. I offer this from the CIA World Fact Book.
1 Russia 17,098,242
2 Canada 9,984,670
3 United States 9,826,675
4 China 9,596,960
5 Brazil 8,514,877
6 Australia 7,741,220
7 India 3,287,263
Aras shown are in Square Kilometres.
The little itty-bitty island way down south is more than twice the size of India, and more than three-quarters the size of Canada.
Adelaide to Perth is not exactly ‘just down the road’.
Drivable, but I guess a 4/5/6 day drive for those who like to sleep!
Auto
I did once have a strange experience in Adelaide. One of my first jobs, for a few months, was a travelling door to door salesman. It didn’t last long, I wasn’t very good at it. But one part of this experience stands out.
Most places, as you can imagine, if you knock on the door of a stranger and try to sell them something, you get the door slammed in your face. Adelaide was different – they kept inviting me in, not to buy the product, but to proselytise to me.
That was a long time ago – I guess the kids of those people I met in Adelaide have moved on to a new religion.
the best thing to say would be they have just shot themselves in the foot yet again as many of the fish stocks, in the northern hemisphere at least ,are on the increase.
It would seem Adelaide University is completely ignorant of the history of the earth.
Animals and plants have been adapting to earthly conditions since literally the beginning of time; look to the past to know the future and it’s pretty obvious all of this “studying” is just churning out more scare literature. And “literature” it is, with weasel words like “anticipate” and “conceptualize.” All in the realm of Science Fiction!
The minute any nation achieves the industrialized standard of living, the birth rate plummets to barely or below replacement value; that ought to level off the food chain questions quite nicely. Do these nitwits so compartmentalize their worldview that they don’t realize the human species, as pinnacle predator of the moment, is PART and PARCEL of the natural equation? They need to lose the culturally biased and outmoded idea that “nature” is something separate and removed from US. Adaptation to WHATEVER conditions exist is something humans have learned to do supremely well, and our ability to do so via technology is now more advanced than ever.
Which makes all this apocalyptic claptrap sound even dumber.
+1000
The minute any nation achieves the industrialized standard of living, the birth rate plummets to barely or below replacement value.
_________________________________
That is an unwarranted assumption besed upon modern Western values. If you live in a society where your god tells you continue subjugate your women and continure reproducing whatever your wealth, the results can be and often are very different.
Osama’s family.
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01885/osama-cadillac_1885045i.jpg
ralfellis, it’s based on observing every single country over the last 100 years or so.
As to the muslim countries, most of them haven’t achieved a civilized standard of living yet.
As for your example of the bin Laden family, I could counter with the Duggars in this country.
Outliers exist in every group. Regardless, the average birth rate in Muslim countries has been falling.
Even more correlated than standard of living, is educational level of women.
Higher educational level of women = Lower birth rates.
Comments on birthrate v. development are correct.
Might also point out that grain yields will likely be dropping over the next several years as the Progressive GMO food scare continues to take hold. Monsanto is reporting a large reduction in sales of GMO seeds. The almost certain loss in yields as a result of using non-GMO seeds will drive up food costs, which will of course be blamed on AGW. There will be no mention that the increase in cost and reduction in yield is due to this forced switch.
Typical hair-brained meta-analysis of papers designed and intended to show negative effects of higher CO2 concentrations and/or lower pH. Half the time the pH is altered artificially and rapidly, which invites a negative outcome.
“our metaanalysis [sic] of 632 published experiments …”
Seriously? Even Eric Worrall doesn’t have that many climate stories!
So, imagine a meta-analysis on the character of climate fiction as revealed on recent WUWT postings of a similar extent – last 632 stories. And we’d expect what?
Hey I’m trying – I want my place on a climate “wall of infamy” 🙂
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/04/30/climate-wall-of-infamy/
My goal is to craft a knee-slapping one-liner retort to every possible warmista lie.
Eric: We’re just not trying hard enough.
Another obvious question: why didn’t ocean food chains collapse during the Medieval Warming period and its predecessors?
Exactly.
These authors have once again demonstrated a breathtaking ignorance of Earth history.
We are in a very cold period in the history of the Earth.
Life explodes in warm conditions.
Think of the Silurian Period…explosion of oceanic life. Hot climatic regime.
And, as noted, the numerous periods from the recent to more distant past in which temps were far higher than today.
Besides its not getting hotter. If we are very lucky, it won’t get a whole lot colder anytime soon.
me nich
+shedloads.
I do NOT want colder.
I fear we may get a little colder [cooler], but I seriously do not want a lot Colder – that is difficulties around the world.
I know it is not warming a whole heap.
But another degree or so warmer by – say, 2050; I’d approach my century then – is not unwelcome.
Auto
Let Obama play with his global warming toy all he wants, while CO2 keeps increasing on its merry way to make planet Earth a better place to live. Earth dynamics is well contained by self-regulating negative feedback the meaning of which escapes alarmists’ ability to understand. In the last 17 years CO2 level increased by 38 ppm, while the real global temperature keeps coming down. CO2 is what all life on our planet is made from, and there is never enough of it satisfy the demand by all vegetation to thrive. Advanced greenhouses add 3 times the ambient level of CO2 and show production increases up to 40%. Whatever little CO2 humans can produce can only add up to benefit the life as we know it, if effective at all.
“why didn’t ocean food chains collapse during the Medieval Warming period and its predecessors?”
Because:
CO2 didn’t go up during those previous warm periods.
according to Michael Mann?
no correlation between human emissions and ocean acidification
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2669930
This deserves discussion and a posting of its own. Post it on the tips page, if you haven’t yet.
“Ocean acidification and warming increase the potential for…”
i.e. this study is climastrology guesswork like all the rest, but in the very next sentence suddenly they claim false certainty.
“The future simplification of our oceans has profound consequences for our current way of life…”
This is typical of the Warmists, hedging in one sentence only to insist on false certainty of their predictions elsewhere. They highlight the hedging to skeptics who understand the flaws, the highlight the certain doom to non-scientists in government and the general public who don’t know any better.
+ 9.5
“This is typical of the Warmists, hedging in one sentence only to insist on false certainty of their predictions elsewhere. They highlight the hedging to skeptics who understand the flaws, the highlight the certain doom to non-scientists in government and the general public who don’t know any better.”
Not just CAGW, but other weak science does this. We’ll written, but try n zero in better. Perhaps …
“The information provided does not support the conclusions. You are over reaching.”
Help the non scientist.
How can these ” Studies ” be PAYWALLED ??? Aren’t they created using tax payer dollars ?????
Also , there is no such thing as ” Ocean Acidification ” !!!!! The Ocean is not more acid !!!
Acidic !! Ooops !!!
Precisely, well said!
Adelaide Koolaide. ;-]
A recent paper showing that lower pH does not harm coral:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/10/07/study-co2-acidification-does-not-harm-coral/
I wonder how many of the Dem voters are becoming skeptical of the 25 year ongoing avalanche of negative media news for Global Warming. The End Is Near can only work for a brief period, then reality hits home for many.
Wonder no more. There is a bit of an upswing in the US.
http://www.people-press.org/files/2015/01/Partisan-Gaps-on-Environment-and-Global-Warming.png
“Protecting the environment” and “dealing with Global warming” have unfortunately become politicized mantras for the left with the underlying goal being “control.” Despotism, as a political system the western societies mostly abandoned 300 years ago in a series of revolutions, awaits.
Was that an appeal to fear ?
How about something more tempered …
Striking a balance seems to be an appropriate value. Please join us in identifying real problems and examining potential solutions. We realize it’s a difficult endeavor, but using extremes and launching personal attacks seems to have created larger problems throughout the course of history.
Also those two ideas (protecting the environment and dealing with GW) have become antithetical to the Age of Enlightenment (as in today’s pseudo-scientists tampering with the government reported temp records for political effect) and the advance of free-speech and associated individual liberties (seen as attacks such as in the RICO-20 letter). That is the underlying basis for the “% gaps” between those arguing for centralized authoritarian, socialist-style controls (Democrats) and those arguing for liberty, and free-market capitalism (Republicans).
It’s not an appeal to fear, if you are pointing to proven facts.
MarkW: “It’s not an appeal to fear, if you are pointing to proven facts.”
“Proven facts”?
What “proven facts” would they be then?
Scientists (and marketers) have learned that most people will believe “it” if a scientist says so.
MarkW seems to have some bizarre notion of proven and facts. Let’s say I forecast Michael Mann to soon start jogging across country naked to bring more attention to the GW crisis. In MarkWs view this is a proven fact simply because I think that is something Mann might do based on his fevered activism.
However, until Mann does indeed take off cross country naked and I provide evidence of this unusual behavior with photos, videos, and interviews my forecast is in fact not a proven fact.
Like the assumptions piled on top of assumptions mixed with equal parts speculation and tiresome bias this paper’s predicted ocean ecosystem dis-function is about as proven a fact as Michael Manns naked jaunt.
Please note that the key point you are demonstrating is that YOU have to prove your theory. YOU have to provide evidence. YOU are not telling someone nah nah da boo boo you have to disprove me.
Somewhere along the line cagwistas sucked skeptics into having to disprove CAGW. How did that happen ?
What was the series of events that shifted the battle to their turf ?
All one has to do is look at the positions of the Democrats. They all involve more control by govt over everyone. In other words, despotism.
I don’t have to project what the Democrats are going to do in the future, merely look at what they have advocated in the past and what they are doing now.
That’s one of the reasons why global warming has dropped so far in the public mind. Even this site has had a significant drop in it’s ratings recently as people just stop caring and move on to other topics..
Be careful Ben.
The social justice movement (CAGW is a part of that) will attain the victory they seek if CO2 continues to maintain its status as a codified pollutant. As we speak forces are at play to develop localized analysis of who is suffering disparate impact from generating non renewable energy for the CO2 consumers. Who will get a check and will who give the check.
Okay, we need a seismic or scintillation counter to record the media hits from contrived science in the mass migration to claims from facts. Such a tape or seismograph record would have shown a swarm leading up to Paris and perhaps other international meetings.
“Ocean Acidification ” !!!!!
Either –
the oceans are getting warmer & the CO2 concentration in seawater is decreasing (due to out-gassing).
Which means that ocean acidification from man-made CO2 from the atmosphere is nonsense.
Or –
the oceans are getting cooler and the man-made CO2 from the atmosphere is dissolving in those cooler oceans and causing – insignificant – ocean acidification.
Which means that warming oceans and the associated sea level rises are nonsense.
Take your pick – because REAL SCIENCE says you can’t have both.
Se also
http://www.ilovemycarbondioxide.com/pdf/Ocean_acidification_examined.pdf
There is no such thing as Ocean Acidification. It is an absurdity, that can’t happen in theory, models or in reality. It hasn’t been measured, it can’t be measured and in terms of real measurement it is a phantom.
The pH will only change when the oceans run out of buffer….and not one second sooner
…and since CO2 makes the buffer.
Please be careful. You can acidify by dropping your pH by 0.01 points. You should probably amend all of your statements with “extreme”.
Also, the amount of CO2 absorbed is related to temperature but fully proportional to air concentration via Henry’s law. As the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere has increased by a factor of 2, this change dominates the balance. Dissolved CO2 is increasing.
Find one definition of acidification in any dictionary anywhere that does not say that acidification means the process of turning into, or becoming more, acid. Then I will agree with you, Ben of Houston.
Ben, you say
As the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere has increased by a factor of 2,”
When did a 30% increase in atmospheric CO2 turn into a 200%increase ???
You also say
“Dissolved CO2 is increasing.”
Therefore the oceans are getting cooler !! Which means –
1 As the oceans are the earth ‘heat sink’ we must have moved into a cooling phase.
2 That warming oceans and the associated expansive sea level rises are nonsense.
3 All claims of ‘hottest this’ & ‘warmest that’ are untrue (euphemism for lies).
4 Atmospheric CO2 will be sucked into the sea leaving less for photosynthesis & we’ll all starve.
Did you sleep through Chemistry ?? You need to read up on where most atmospheric CO2 comes,
(clue – Not from us)
“fully proportional to air concentration via Henry’s law”
I think that would be Dalton’s law of partial pressures, which is linear, unlike the solubility/temperature relationship described by Henry’s law, with isn’t. Hence there will be no dissolved CO2 in water at its boiling point, notwithstanding the concentration in the atmosphere above it.
1save, I will admit that the “by 2” is incorrect. It’s actually a 40% increase. Sorry, long day. As for the rest. I didn’t say that. I said nothing of the sort. That’s a pretty stupid strawman, and a very rude insult. It’s simple. There is more CO2 dissolved in the ocean due to the higher concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. Any high school chemistry class could calculate that. Henry’s law is a basic calculation for the dissolution of a gas in a liquid. It doesn’t even require algebra. It seems that you are the one who needs remedial chemistry, not me.
Cat, you are splitting hairs. Henry’s law isn’t applicable at boiling points and we both know it. However we are so far below the boiling point of water that it’s trivial. The change in temperature due to CO2 is so small that it might as well be constant. It’s dwarfed anyway by seasons and currents.
Menicholas. How is reducing pH not becoming more acid? You are hitting your head into a wall over nonsensical terminology distinctions. Moreover, you are arguing on the wrong side of the definition.
+ 10
“It hasn’t been measured, it can’t be measured and in terms of real measurement it is a phantom.”
Excellent. Draw attention to the concept of the slightly believable phantom. Creating the slightly believable phantom is one of the hallmarks of the con, the psuedoscience.
Heres a good starter link
http://www.positiveatheism.org/writ/pratkanis.htm
Please don’t be offended by the religious reference. I’m not sure why they did it that way as it distracts from the very good info.
Next week’s modeling study: global warming may cause Earth to spiral into the sun.
So photosynthesis is no longer a benefit to life on earth.
Science is amazing Climatology not so much.
Silly , the left can’t make money off of real science !!!!
1. This paper has nothing to do with the meeting starting in Paris next month.
2. The geological record is irrelevant when looking at today’s world.
3. All the world’s oceans have a pH which remains static and unvarying throughout the year, which is why ocean acidification is so dangerous.
4. There is no such thing as natural climate change and even if there was, climate scientists have conclusively proved it ceased in 1951, after which all climate change was caused by increasing CO2 levels.
5. There are no climate scientists who suffer from grant addiction.
6. Mann’s Hockey Stick is a blend of sound science and statistics.
7. Thermageddon is imminent.
8. Clouds, rain and storms represent a strong positive feedback.
9. Politicians can always be trusted.
10. Climate models are accurate and should never be questioned.
Sarc off/
You had me worried for a minute there !!
I was already crafting my ornery response by the time I figured it out.
Sorry, you’ve got clouds, rain and storms wrong
Their origin has long been known….http://www.sacred-texts.com/pag/mm/mm02a15a.htm
So terrestrial organisms are incapable of adapting to relatively minor changes in their environment now, are they?
Sounds like Evolution denialism to me.
Evolution denialism? How about seasonal temperature delta? Diurnal temperature delta?
If you live in North America, how often have you experienced 40 degree F temperature drops in a matter of hours from “blue northers”? And they want us to believe that a 3 degree F change in “average” temperature due to a few extra ppm of CO2 is the death of the planet?
The only species in imminent danger of extinction, whether by acid reflux or getting too hot under the collar is “Scientivus Climaticus Alarmist” Their habitat is shrinking rapidly and their brains are not adapting fast enough to enable them to see the writing on the wall. They are still fixated on the trough which will soon be empty. It will be a shame to see them go. Just like the laughing jackass and the Manakin bird they have kept us amused. Lew and Cook need to be preserved in a zoo or no one will believe they existed in 50 years though as they are not of the species they may continue to dance like the Manakin to no avail for many years yet..
“Regarding the alleged impact of acidification on calcifying species like corals, it seems a shame the Adelaide boffins didn’t compare notes with their colleagues down the road in Perth, who recently discovered that corals have the ability to manage their internal pH levels – they grow just fine in a wide range of naturally occurring CO2 levels.”
As the author of the Perth study stated:”“This is most likely only typical to corals from reefs such as Heron Island lagoon where temperature and pH fluctuations vary greatly on daily to seasonal basis” says Ms Georgiou.”
Saying “corals have the ability to manage their internal pH levels” implies all corals have this ability, which the author states is most likely NOT the case.
I’ll hazard a guess that the author was referring to the type of reef, in this case a barrier reef that surrounds an Island with a lagoon in between.
This type of crap is so asinine….
If “normal” was 20 degrees warmer…..normal CO2 levels were 1000ppm
These exact same people would be hysterical and screaming the opposite.
The abstract reads like it’s just a bunch of alarmist “buzz words” strung together by a computer model. Maybe the complete document makes more sense, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
The real food chain they are worried about is the collapse of the flow of grant money into their feeding troughs. The Parisites say they need private financing to meet their goals.
[Begin Quote]
INTERNATIONAL:
CCAP’s Helme discusses need for private financing to meet Paris goals
OnPoint: Wednesday, October 14, 2015
http://www.eenews.net/tv/videos/2040/transcript
How will private-sector investments factor in to the overall success of December’s anticipated Paris climate agreement? During today’s OnPoint, Ned Helme, president of the Center for Clean Air Policy, discusses the financing framework that will be needed to ensure the goals of a Paris agreement are met. He also talks about the role of coal internationally and how its expanding use in some countries impacts efforts to reduce emissions.
yesterday’s piece associating us skeptics with Hitler’s failed science advisers who (a D word here) true science causing Hitler to go to war to win territory as resources would become scarce – that was even more disgusting (expecting moderation for Hitler, but it was some Yale scholar brought him up – glad my children didn’t go there)
Because the oceans produce 90%+ of all Oxygen on the planet, what they are really saying is The End Of All Life On Earth As We Know It.
From a (bad) Sci-Fi movie, it is an ELEE, an Earth Life Extinction Event.
Then they say:
Yes, you could put it that way.
“metaanalysis” + “quantified the direction and magnitude” = Fantasized
“conceptualize broadly based change” = Fantasized
I didn’t understand the word “metaanalysis” but found “meta-analysis is that there is a common truth behind all conceptually similar studies”
So the “authors” looked at “632 published experiments” – it would be interesting to count the number of fact based documents they actually looked at where the content wasn’t 99% propaganda with an excess of “likely” “could” “anticipated” etc.
“Claim: Global Warming will cause ocean food chains to collapse”
Of course, if you take a look at one of Jeff Masters’ recent posts, another epidemic of coral bleaching is underway and will doom us all. However, if you run a quick Google search, you will notice something very peculiar about the vast majority of domains turning up hits about coral bleaching. I got to the end of the second search page before I just closed the browser.