The Week That Was: 2015-06-27 (June 27, 2015) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Delayed Offensive: On June 22, the White House and the EPA announced a new offensive on global warming, now called climate change. “The plan wraps in a handful of federal departments that deal with health, the environment or both, from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).”
The EPA report announcing the plan asserted global warming/climate change a dire threat to the economy and to human health. One of the bolder claims was that up to 57,000 Americans could die per year from poor air quality by 2100, if action is not taken now. “This report summarizes results from the Climate Change Impacts and Risks Analysis (CIRA) project, a peer-reviewed study comparing impacts in a future with significant global action on climate change to a future in which current greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise.”
The EPA fails to establish that “poor air quality” is directly related to human-caused global warming.
The report may be “peer reviewed” according to EPA standards, but its ancestry is suspect. The White House announcement coincided with an announcement by the Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change of a new report “Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health.” This new Lancet report is based on an earlier study published on May 16, 2009. The earlier study is based on projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, AR-4), published in 2007.
The 2007 IPCC report is dated, some could call obsolete. According to the Summary for Policymakers, the only natural component forcing climate change is solar irradiance, amounting to 0.06 to 0.30 Watts per meter squared (units). Total net anthropogenic (human) forcing is 10 to 40 times larger than the smaller estimate of natural forcing, ranging from 0.6 to 2.4 units, and 2 to 8 times larger than the greater estimate of natural forcing. The estimates for carbon dioxide alone vary from 1.49 to 1.83 units, or 25 to 30 times larger than smaller estimate of natural forcing, and 5 to 6 times larger than the greater estimate of natural forcing.
It is in the atmosphere that the greenhouse effect takes place, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations continue to rise. As shown by satellite data, independently verified by weather balloon data, there has been no statistically significant warming of the atmosphere for over a decade, perhaps for 18 years. The estimates of strong CO2-caused warming may be in error.
Recently, over 50 papers have appeared giving various explanations of why temperatures have not responded to increases in CO2, as projected in the 2007 report. Most of the explanations involve natural causes not considered in the 2007 report. Why the Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change should use this report based on outdated science, which can be called obsolete, to suggest policy responses can only be answered by the authors of the report.
What makes the new report by the Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change particularly ironic is that a May 20, 2015 report by another Lancet group stated that human mortality from cold weather events is almost 20 times the mortality from warm weather events. The May report was based on data, not on non-validated, speculative climate models.
Similarly, the EPA report relies on out-of-date projections of ever increasing temperatures, which are not occurring, and include increasing sea level rise, which is not occuring, to make highly speculative claims of the benefits of governments controlling emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. In the report, costs of abandoning fossil fuels are largely ignored.
The new effort by the Administration and by the Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change serves as a reminder of failed government-sponsored predictions in the past and should make one skeptical of entities that rely on them. See links under Un-Science or Non-Science? TWTW May 30, 2015, and http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/spms3.html
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Quote of the Week: “People are generally better persuaded by the reasons which they have themselves discovered than by those which have come into the mind of others.” – Blaise Pascal [H/t Climate Etc.]
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Number of the Week: 1.17% Green?
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Institutional Credibility: One of the hallmarks of the US government has been the credibility of federal agencies. There may be policy differences, such as issues of national defense; but, in general, government agencies have been honorable in their reports to the public. The assumption of the Federal Courts of Appeal is that reports by government agencies have been scrupulously prepared. Increasingly, SEPP and others are questioning if this assumption has merit, particularly when it applies to the EPA, and certain other agencies.
Alan Carlin, a long-time environmental activist and senior analyst with the EPA, describes his transition to one who openly questions the directions the EPA and the environmental movement are taking. In particular, now, the agency and the environmental movement are driven more by ideology than by data. Programs are instituted to mold, and agree with public opinion and perception, rather than to address environmental needs and concerns. Environmentalism Gone Mad: How a Sierra Club Activist and Senior EPA Analyst Discovered a Radical Green Energy Fantasy is ably reviewed Larry Bell (below).
The EPA’s health pronouncements are being openly questioned in Congress, particularly those pronouncements that are repeated multiple times, with no new research, and dependent on research the EPA refuses to release to the public. Will similar questions arise with the latest climate offensive by the Administration, to include questioning claims by HHS and CDC?
For example, the Centers for Disease Control, and its predecessors, were instrumental in the rapid increase in life expectancy at birth in the US during the 20th century, from about 47 years in 1900 to 77 years in 2000 (all races, both sexes). Will the CDC forego the institution credibility it built in understanding and preventing diseases in order to promote vague claims of health issues arising from global warming? Has the leadership of CDC endorsed this concept, given global warming is not happening, and politicians assert, without substantiation, and that they can prevent climate change by controlling CO2 emissions?
Those responsible in these agencies should realize that once institutional credibility is lost, it will be difficult to regain. See links under Un-Science or Non-Science? and http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2011/022.pdf
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Lowering Standards – NASA: In keeping with the Administration’s war on climate, which it does not understand because it does not recognize the significant natural influences, NASA has announced detailed global climate change projections and the data showing how temperature and rainfall patterns worldwide may change through the year 2100 because of growing concentrations of greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere.
According to the press release: “The dataset, which is available to the public, shows projected changes worldwide on a regional level in response to different scenarios of increasing carbon dioxide simulated by 21 climate models. The high-resolution data, which can be viewed on a daily timescale at the scale of individual cities and towns, will help scientists and planners conduct climate risk assessments to better understand local and global effects of hazards, such as severe drought, floods, heat waves and losses in agriculture productivity.
“This NASA dataset integrates actual measurements from around the world with data from climate simulations created by the international Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. These climate simulations used the best physical models of the climate system available to provide forecasts of what the global climate might look like under two different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: a “business as usual” scenario based on current trends and an “extreme case” with a significant increase in emissions.
“The NASA climate projections provide a detailed view of future temperature and precipitation patterns around the world at a 15.5 mile (25 kilometer) resolution, covering the time period from 1950 to 2100. The 11-terabyte dataset provides daily estimates of maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation over the entire globe.”
Neither NASA, nor any government entity, has bothered to verify and validate any global climate model. Perhaps the current leadership of NASA believes the entire Apollo program was simulated on the back-lot of a movie studio, because the Apollo mission would not have succeeded without verification and validation of the model simulations. See links under Lowering Standards.
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Models v. Data: Roy Spencer reports that John Christy and he, keepers of the UAH satellite data set, calculate that with the El Nino forecasts and the new, controversial Karlized surface data set, 2015 may become the warmest year in the surface dataset. Yet, the temperatures will be well below average forecasts by the global climate models since 1979, demonstrating that use of these models has little significance.
The Karlized surface data is so named after Tom Karl, director of the NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, who led a team to modify sea surface data by making the superior data compatible with the inferior data. NOAA’s credibility continues to decline. See link under Models v. Observations.
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DDP: With the Administration making unsubstantiated claims of dire human health consequences from global warming, which is not occurring, the title and timing of the upcoming annual meeting and conference of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness could not have been better: “Myths, Superstitions, and Real Threats Confronting America.” No doubt there will be some lively discussions on the directions the medical community, and its institutions, are taking. See comments in above.
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Regulating Climate Change: Martin Livermore discusses how some courts perceive Human Rights going far beyond the original intention of the framers of the Human Rights Convention. A Dutch court has ruled in favor of plaintiffs who sued the government for failing to protect Dutch citizens against climate change. What would the court rule if a new ice age appears in the horizon? See link under Questioning the Orthodoxy
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A Solar Cooling? Members of the UK MET Office and others wrote a paper on the current decline in solar activity after a several-decade period of relatively high solar activity. The decline in activity may be prolonged and may become a grand solar minimum. Solar scientists from Russia and some in Germany have been suggesting such a decline for several years, but have largely been ignored by the Climate Establishment, which includes the MET. The approach by the MET to the decline is amusing in two ways: 1) the effects will be regional; and 2) the effects will not overwhelm human-caused global warming.
The claim of a regional, not global effect, is ironic. The IPCC has tried to eliminate the Little Ice Age as a global occurrence. The Third Assessment Report (AR-3) in 2001, featured Mr. Mann’s hockey-stick, which was the product of very scanty, poor quality data and inappropriate statistics, combined with elimination of data that contradicted the hockey-stick. In subsequent efforts, the IPCC argued that the Little Ice Age was principally European and not global, ignoring data from North America, South America, Asia, etc. that contradicted the claim.
The new paper argues that a cooling would be largely confined in the northern part of the northern hemisphere. But that is where the land masses are and where a cooling would be most pronounced. Surely, no one argues that another ice age will start in the tropics.
The claim that a cooling would not overwhelm human-caused (CO2) global warming is highly questionable. As stated in the above discussion of AR-4, the IPCC calculated that the effect of solar activity on late 20th century temperatures is very small. It may have been grossly underestimated, with the effect of CO2 grossly overestimated. If so, a marked decline in solar activity may produce a significant cooling in the critical grain-producing regions of the world resulting in poor harvests. See links under Science: Is the Sun Rising?, Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?, and http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/
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Number of the Week: 1.17% Green? For about a decade, some US politicians have been bragging about the growth of green jobs in energy. The US Department of Interior produced a document promoting its activities and the employment that its activities entail for 2014. The report claims that these activities resulted in 1.15 million jobs in energy and materials. Reading beyond the headlines, about 13,000 (1.17%) of the energy jobs are in renewables such as solar and wind, and about 1.1 million are in fossil fuels. Guess which types of jobs the Administration promotes and which types it is attempting to destroy. The Department of Interior, Bureau of Land Management, does not have a policy for permitting deep underground horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing (fracking) for oil and gas. See link under Non-Green Jobs.
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ARTICLES:
Please note that articles not linked easily or summarized here are reproduced in the Articles Section of the full TWTW that can be found on the web site under the date of the TWTW.
1. America’s Self-Punishing Oil Export Ban
More than 126,000 workers have lost their jobs, and that will double if the ban isn’t lifted.
By Harold Hamm, WSJ, Jun 21, 2015
http://www.wsj.com/articles/americas-self-punishing-oil-export-ban-1434922352
SUMMARY: The chairman and CEO of Continental Resources, a pioneer in extraction of oil from dense shale, uses the possibility of Iran returning to the world oil market, after years of international sanctions, as the justification for the US removing its ban on exports of crude oil which has been effect since 1973. Beginning later this year, limited exports of ultra-light crude, that requires minimum processing will be permitted under a re-classification of crude as a petroleum product. The resurgence of the US oil industry and the ban has created a market distortion, whereby US light oil is sold at a discount compared to the world price of Brent, which is heavier and requires more processing. “Combined with a mismatch in refining capacity, the ban on oil exports is creating a significant discount for U.S. light oil at no benefit to anyone except refiners and their foreign ownership. It has cost U.S. states, producers and royalty owners $125 billion in lost revenue in four years, according to industry estimates.” According to Hamm, 28% of U.S. refining capacity is foreign-owned and nearly all of it is configured to process heavy oil. Environmental groups and refiners oppose lifting the ban. [As of June 28, West Texas Intermediate (light) sales for about $59.63 per barrel, while heavier Brent sells for $63.26 per barrel.]
Hamm argues that the return of Iran to the world oil market will cause further disruption and a drop in crude prices similar to what occurred in late-2014 and early-2015. “Almost 50 years of experience has taught me it takes about three times as long to bring crude oil production back on as it does to ramp it down. If the ban is not lifted, prices will likely shoot up as a short-supplied market is created.”
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2. Big Investors Shun Venezuela’s Flagship Oil Industry Event
By Kejal Vyas, WSJ, Jun 19, 2015
http://blogs.wsj.com/frontiers/2015/06/19/big-investors-shun-venezuelas-flagship-oil-industry-event/
SUMMARY: “Venezuela’s biggest annual gathering of oil investors used to be a memorable affair: thousands of oilmen from around the world would arrive, greeted by statuesque models, and attend whisky-fueled after-parties. The deal-making could run into the billions.
“This year’s event was a far cry from previous years’ bashes, where hordes of investors would clamor for a stake in the country with the world’s largest oil reserves.” Rather than some 40,000 participants, about 3,000 visited, including hundreds of workers from state oil giant PDVSA.
“The lower turnout is reflective of the decay in the investment climate in Venezuela’s vital oil industry after a decade of shaky relations between the Socialist government and foreign oil companies. For years, partners have complained of slow project development and difficulties in repatriating dividends due to restrictive currency controls that also made investing prohibitively costly. The country has struggled to meet ambitious plans to boost output.”
[No doubt, increases in US production of lighter crude are also having an impact.]
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3. ‘Green Bond’ Sales Struggle
Flat pace of new green bonds in the first part of 2015 perplexes the market’s supporters
By Mike Cherney, WSJ, Jun 24, 2015
http://www.wsj.com/articles/green-bond-sales-struggle-1435183687
SUMMARY: “A flattening in “green bond” sales this year is highlighting the uncertainty facing the market for the debt, which is billed as financing projects that would mitigate climate change.
“Green bonds have been sold all over the world in recent years and have helped pay for energy-efficient buildings, improvements to water and sewer systems and mass transit. As the market has grown, however, so have concerns about whether projects financed by green bonds are truly beneficial for the environment, and whether the companies, municipalities and banks that sell the bonds are using the money as promised.
“The Climate Bonds Initiative, a nonprofit group in London that tracks the market, forecast $100 billion in new green bonds in 2015 after sales roughly tripled last year. But green-bond sales are about in line with last year’s pace, with $18.3 billion sold as of Wednesday, compared with $20 billion in the first half of last year, according to the group. About $37 billion of green bonds were sold last year in total.”
[SEPP Comment: The bond market may indicate a weakness in green “investments” contrary to the optimistic promotion by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. See links under Funding Issues.]
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NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Science: Is the Sun Rising?
Scientists show a decline in solar activity could not halt global warming
Return of ‘grand solar minimum’ could affect European and eastern US winters – but wouldn’t halt global warming
By Staff Writers, Met Office, Jun 23, 2015
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2015/solar-activity
Link to paper: Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum
By Ineson, et al. Nature Communications, Jun 23, 2015
http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150623/ncomms8535/full/ncomms8535.html
UK MET Office: Fastest decline in solar activity since the last ice age
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jun 24, 2015
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/06/24/uk-met-fastest-decline-solar-activity-last-ice-age/
Is Another Little Ice Age On The Way?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jun 24, 2015
Historical sunspot numbers are about to be given an adjustment [that is justified]
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jun 22, 2015
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Big fall in sun’s output would slow global warming in Europe, US –study
By Alister Doyle, Reuters, Jun 23, 2015
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/06/23/climatechange-sun-idUKL8N0Z92W920150623
How do we panic about warming during a maunder-type freeze?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jun 26, 2015
In The Bleak Midwinter!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jun 25, 2105
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/06/25/in-the-bleak-midwinter/
Mike Lockwood – Sun Has No Influence On Climate, Except When It Does!
By Paul Homewood, No a Lot of People Know That, Jun 25, 2015
The Story Behind That 2007 Paper
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jun 26, 2015
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/06/26/the-story-behind-that-2007-paper/
Censorship
CO2, whether man-made or not, does not ‘drive’ the climate system.
By Geoff Brown, Australian Climate Sceptics, Jun 26, 2015
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2015/06/co2-whether-man-made-or-not-does-not.html
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Forecasting the Future
NZ Climate Truth Newsletter, No 344
By Vincent Gray, Australian Climate Sceptics, Jun 24, 2015
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2015/06/forecasting-future.html
Prof Emeritus of Chemical Engineering explains why ‘it is impossible that significant climate change is solely due to increased CO2’
By Staff Writer, The Hockey Schtick, From EIKE, Jun 24, 2015
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2015/06/prof-emeritus-of-chemical-engineering.html
Relentlessly shrinking climate sensitivity estimates
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jun 23, 2015
http://joannenova.com.au/2015/06/shrinking-climate-sensitivity-estimates/
Defending the Orthodoxy
A Climate Apollo Program
By Gus O’Donnell, Project Syndicate, Jun 26, 2015
[SEPP Comment: The author does not understand that the Apollo Program was data-driven and government-funded climate science is not.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
EPA Analyst Exposes Climate Science Takeover
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Jun 22, 2015
http://www.newsmax.com/LarryBell/Climate-Change-Emerging-Threats/2015/06/22/id/651607/
[SEPP Comment: Review of Environmentalism Gone Mad by Alan Carlin]
Ignore, Dismiss, Excuse, Deny
By Walter Starck, Quadrant, Jun 21, 2015
http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2015/06/ignore-dismiss-excuse-deny/
[SEPP Comment: Advocates ignoring the record of failed predictions.]
Nature Rebounds – the world is getting better, not worse
By John Mauldin, WUWT, Jun 26, 2015
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/06/26/nature-rebounds-the-world-is-getting-better-not-worse/
Regulating climate change
By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, Jun 26, 2015
http://scientific-alliance.org/node/936
When to Doubt a Scientific Consensus
Anyone who has studied the history of science knows that scientists are not immune to the non-rational dynamics of the herd.
By Jay Richards, The Stream, Jun 20, 2015 [H/t E. Calvin Beisner]
Seeking a Common Ground
Pascal on the art of persuasion
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Jun 24, 2015
http://judithcurry.com/2015/06/24/pascal-on-the-art-of-persuasion/
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Effects of Elevated CO2 on Medicinal Properties of Guava Plants
de Rezende, F.M., Souza, A.P., Buckeridge, M.S. and Furlan, C.M. 2015. Is guava phenolic metabolism influenced by elevated atmospheric CO2? Environmental Pollution 196: 483-488. Jun 24, 2015
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V18/jun/a22.php
Warming Prompts Range Expansion of West Australian Reef Fish
Cure, K., Hobbs, J-P. A. and Harvey, E.S. 2015. High recruitment associated with increased sea temperatures towards the southern range edge of a Western Australian endemic reef fish Choerodon rubescens (family Labridae). Environ Biol Fish 98: 1059-1067. Jun 23, 2015
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V18/jun/a21.php
Assessing the Global Extent of Drought-Induced Forest Dieback
Steinkamp, J. and Hickler, T. 2015. Is drought-induced forest dieback globally increasing? Journal of Ecology 103: 31-43. Jun 23, 2015
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V18/jun/a20.php
“In light of the global warming that ceased nearly two decades ago, droughts have been predicted — and are still periodically projected — to become more severe and widespread in future decades, leading to the dieback of many of the world’s forests. A new study, however, suggests these projections have little solid support in terms of real-world data.”
Climate Model Inadequacies (Sea Ice) – Summary
By Staff Writers, CO2 Science, Jun 19, 2015
http://www.co2science.org/subject/s/summaries/seaicemodel.php
”So when shopping for Arctic sea ice models when all is said and done, it is not surprising that the word on the street is buyer beware!”
Models v. Observations
2015 Will Be Record Warm in Surface Temperatures…But Still Below Model Forecasts
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Jun 22, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Even using Karlization data.]
Model Issues
Climate Model Inadequacies (Sea Ice)
By Staff Writers, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, Jun 19, 2015
Measurement Issues
Progress on the problems with Australia’s ACORN-SAT surface air temperature records
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jun 20, 2015
Vanishing hot days of December 1931 — and BOM monthly averages hotter than every single day that month
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jun 26, 2015
http://joannenova.com.au/2015/06/vanishing-hot-days-of-december-1931-and-bom-averages-that-are/
Changing Seas
The Atlantic ‘conveyor belt’ and climate: 10 years of the RAPID project
By Roz Pidcock and Robert McSweeney, The Carbon Brief, Jun 19, 2015
Link to paper: Observing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation yields a decade of inevitable surprises
By Srokosz and Bryden, Science, Jun 19, 2015
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/348/6241/1255575
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Analysis Shows Current Warming Is NOT Unprecedented …It Is Not Even “Unusual”!
By Ed Caryl, No Tricks Zone, Jun 24, 2015
German Analysis: Near Record Level Antarctic Sea Ice Shows Nothing Climatically Unusual At South Pole!
The development of the Antarctic Sea ice before the satellite era in 1979
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning, Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt [Translated/edited by P Gosselin], No Tricks Zone, Jun 25, 2015
New paper shows N. Greenland was warmer during early 20th century (1920-1940) & during Medieval Warm Period
By Staff Writers, The Hockey Schtick, Jun 24, 2015
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Increased carbon dioxide levels in air restrict plants’ ability to absorb nutrients
By Staff Writers, Gothenburg, Sweden (SPX), Jun 17, 2015
“For all types of ecosystem the results show that high carbon dioxide levels can impede plants’ ability to absorb nitrogen …”
[SEPP Comment: No data or summary of data presented. Is the nitrogen content in the crop important for health?]
Un-Science or Non-Science?
Report calls climate change ‘medical emergency’
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Jun 23, 2015
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/245801-report-calls-climate-change-medical-emergency
Link to report: Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health
By Staff Writers, Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change, Jun 23, 2015
http://www.thelancet.com/commissions/climate-change
Study is dated May 16, 2009
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2809%2960922-3/fulltext
Doctors Say: ‘Climate Change the Deadliest Thing in the History of the World
By James Delingpole, Breitbart, Jun 23, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Link to Study: Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health
By Nick Watts, et al, The Lancet, Jun 22, 2015
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2815%2960854-6/abstract
The Lancet goes all Andrew Wakefield again
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jun 23, 2015
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2015/6/23/the-lancet-goes-all-andrew-wakefield-again.html
White House launches climate change health initiative
By Devin Henry, The Hill, Jun 23, 2015
EPA report touts big benefits to US from global climate policies
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Jun 22, 2015
Link to EPA Report: Climate Change in the United States: Benefits of Global Action
By Staff Writers, EPA, Jun 23, 2015
White House, EPA say climate change a dire threat to economy, human health
By Staff Writers, AP, Jun 23, 2015
EPA Claims That ‘Global Action’ On Global Warming Will Stop ‘Extreme Weather
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Jun 22, 2015
Lowering Standards
NASA Releases Detailed Global Climate Change Projections
By Staff Writers, NASA, Jun 9, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-releases-detailed-global-climate-change-projections
“This NASA dataset integrates actual measurements from around the world with data from climate simulations created by the international Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.”
The Royal Society does glacier melt
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jun 22, 2015
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2015/6/22/the-royal-society-does-glacier-melt.html
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Hot and Getting Hotter: Heat Islands Cooking US Cities
By Staff Writers, Climate Central.org, Aug 21, 2014 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://www.livescience.com/47482-hot-and-getting-hotter-heat-islands-cooking-us-cities.html
[SEPP Comment: The Urban Heat Island effect must be separated from any increase in temperatures due to increased carbon dioxide, which the authors fail to do.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Obama: ‘Within Our Children’s Lifetimes, On Our Current Pace, the Oceans Go Up Maybe 2, Maybe 3, Maybe 4 Feet’
By Staff Writers, CNS News, Jun 23, 2015
Ozone Triggers Lying, Not Asthma
By Steve Milloy, Breitbart, Jun 24, 2015
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/06/24/ozone-triggers-lying-not-asthma/
Sherwood’s devout unscientific faith in “climate change” and the hot spot
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jun 24, 2015
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
EPA Chief: ‘Climate Deniers’ Aren’t Normal Human Beings
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Jun 23, 2015
http://dailycaller.com/2015/06/23/epa-chief-climate-deniers-arent-normal-human-beings/
[SEPP Comment: Extra-ordinary?]
Expanding the Orthodoxy – The Pope – Loyal Opposition
Gas of Life: Pope Encyclical on Climate Change Ignores Science on Carbon Dioxide
By Wei-Hock Soon (Willie Soon), Breitbart, Jun 19, 2015 [H/t WUWT]
Pope Francis on Climate Change: An Encyclical Failure
By James Rust, Master Resource, Jun 23, 2015
https://www.masterresource.org/debate-issues/pope-francis-encyclical-failure/
The Poor Need More Energy: What BP Knows and Pope Francis Doesn’t
By Robert Bryce, National Review, Jun 22, 2015
Pope Is Wrong on Science
By Mark LaRochelle, Human Events, Jun 22, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://humanevents.com/2015/06/22/pope-is-wrong-on-the-science/
Brother Glum, Mother Earth
By Steven Malanga, City A.M. Jun 19, 2015
http://www.city-journal.org/2015/eon0619sm.html
Questioning European Green
Greece turns to lignite
By Staff Writers, PV Mag, Jun 19, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/greece-turns-to-lignite-_100019886/#axzz3dgZQgFsw
In 2014, Greece had added a tiny 13 MW of new photovoltaic capacity compared to 1047 MW and 890 MW of solar PV installed in 2013 and 2012 respectively.
[SEPP Comment: A decline of 98.7%]
Government admits benefits of green policy less than cost
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jun 25, 2015
Germany’s Energy Crisis Deepens: Majority of Planned Power Plants in Doubt
By Staff Writers, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Via GWPF, Jun 6, 2015
http://www.thegwpf.com/germanys-energy-crisis-deepens-majority-of-planned-power-plants-in-doubt/
[SEPP Comment: Critical issues are how many are under construction, and how many are needed.]
Germany to Scrap Climate Change Levy on Coal Plants
By Jeevan Vasagar, Financial Time, Jun 6, 2015
http://www.thegwpf.com/germany-to-scrap-climate-change-levy-on-coal-plants/
A Bumpy Ride for Germany’s Green Energy
By Lloyd Bentsen, NCPA, Jun 3, 2015
http://environmentblog.ncpa.org/a-bumpy-ride-for-germanys-green-energy/
Green Deal: a waste of precious resources
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jun 24, 2015
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2015/6/24/green-deal-a-waste-of-precious-resources.html
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Aussie government slashes renewable target
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jun 24, 2015
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/06/24/aussie-government-slashes-renewable-target/
Non-Green Jobs
Interior Dept. contributes $358b to economy
By Zack Colman, Washington Examiner, Jun 24, 2015
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/interior-contributes-358b-to-economy/article/2566933
Link to Report: FY 2014 Economic Contributions
By Staff Writers, U.S. Department of the Interior, No Date
[SEPP Comment: According to the report, of the 1.15 million jobs in Energy & Materials, about 13,000 (1.17%) were in renewable energy. Jobs in fossil fuel energy totaled 1.1 million, which the Administration is trying to destroy.]
Funding Issues
Renewables to Beat Fossil Fuels With $3.7 Trillion Solar Boom
By Ehren Gossens, Bloomberg, Jun 23, 2015
Link to report: 2015 New Energy Outlook
New Energy Outlook (NEO) is Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s annual long-term view of how the world’s power markets will evolve into the future
By Elena Giannakopoulou and Seb Henbest, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Jun 23, 2015
https://www.bnef.com/dataview/new-energy-outlook/index.html
“Solar power will draw $3.7 trillion in investment through 2040, with a total of $8 trillion going toward clean energy. That’s almost double the $4.1 trillion that will be spent on coal, natural gas and nuclear plants, according to a forecast from Bloomberg New Energy Finance.”
The Way Humans Get Electricity Is About to Change Forever
By Tom Randall, Bloomberg, Jun 23, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Based on analysis by Bloomberg New Energy Finance.]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Hearing on Energy Efficiency Legislation
By Ted Gayer, Brookings, Apr 30, 2015
http://www.brookings.edu/research/testimony/2015/04/30-energy-efficiency-legislation-gayer
[SEPP Comment: Questioning energy efficiency mandates.]
250 onshore windfarms will be scrapped as taxpayer subsidies are axed
By John Ingham, Express, UK, Jun 22, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/586219/Windfarms-cuts-taxpayer-subsidies-axed
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Illegal EPA scheming on private email extended to GHG rules
Guest essay by Chris Horner, WUWT, Jun 22, 2015
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/06/22/illegal-epa-scheming-on-private-email-extended-to-ghg-rules/
EPA sends methane leak rule for final review
By Timothy Wise, The Hill, Jun 24, 2015
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/245959-epa-sends-methane-leak-rule-for-final-review
Stanford research finds climate change regulation burden heaviest on poor
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jun 20, 2015
Energy Issues – Non-US
400,000-year-old dental tartar provides earliest evidence of manmade pollution
By Staff Writers, Tel Aviv, Israel (SPX), Jun 22, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Fires in caves were not necessarily smoke-free.]
Energy Issues — US
Eastern U.S. braces for first summer without coal plants
By John Siciliano, Washington Examiner, Jun 17, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Secretary Moniz’s Remarks at the 2015 EIA Annual Conference — as prepared
By Staff Writers, Energy.Gov, Jun 15, 2015
http://www.energy.gov/articles/secretary-monizs-remarks-2015-eia-annual-conference-prepared
“I would like to first discuss the energy revolution in the United States. By almost all measures, our energy security position has been greatly enhanced over the last several years.”
[SEPP Comment: Don’t tell the Pentagon.]
Do Energy Efficiency Investments Deliver? Evidence from the Weatherization Assistance Program
By Fowlie, et al, Becker-Friedman Institute, Jun 2015 [H/t WSJ]
Washington’s Control of Energy
Judge blocks federal fracking rule
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Jun 23, 2015
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/245933-judge-blocks-federal-fracking-rule
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
President Carter Said The World Would Run Out Of Oil By 2010
By Steven Goddard, Real Science, Jun 22, 2015
“WASHINGTON, March 2 The Carter Administration is serious in a way that its predecessors were not about coping with an energy problem that is real, growing, and a grave threat to modern civilization.” NYT, Mar 4, 1977
Top 10 things I learned on my summer trip to the Bakken oil fields, Part II
By Mark Perry, AEIdeas, Jun 18, 2015
How Shale Is Streamlining
By Walter Russell Mead & Staff, The American Interest, Jun 25, 2015
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/06/22/how-shale-is-streamlining/
US Foes of Fracking Losing Legal and Political Momentum
By Staff Writers, Washington Times, Via GWPF, Jun 25, 2015
http://www.thegwpf.com/us-foes-of-fracking-losing-legal-and-political-momentum/
Iran may usher a quick return to $50 U.S. oil prices
By Myra P. Saefong, Market Watch, Jun 23, 2015
New York warning over Lancashire County Council fracking vote
By Staff Writers, BBC, Jun 20, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-lancashire-33211020
[SEPP Comment: As pointed out in the link immediately below, how many of the politicians can find Lancashire County on a map, much less pronounce it?]
Two cheers for fracking: With proper regulation shale gas will be a boon to the UK
Editorial, The Independent, Jun 25, 2015
Return of King Coal?
Clean Coal is Dead, Long Live Clean Coal
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Jun 23, 2015
https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2015/06/23/clean-coal-is-dead-long-live-clean-coal/
[SEPP Comment: A way out of the morass for coal-powered electricity that the coal industry helped build.]
Oil Spills, Gas Leaks, Earthquakes & Consequences
Oklahoma earthquakes linked to oil and gas drilling
A new study finds that the recent spike in triggered earthquakes in Oklahoma is primarily due to the injection of wastewater produced during oil production. [Boldface added]
By Staff Writers, Science Daily, Jun 18, 2015 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/06/150618145809.htm
Oklahoma’s recent earthquakes and saltwater disposal
By Walsh and Zoback, Science, Jun 18, 2015
http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/5/e1500195
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Why the U.S. should invest a lot more in nuclear research
By Ryan Cooper, The Week, Jun 18, 2015 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
http://theweek.com/articles/561192/why-should-invest-lot-more-nuclear-research
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
No One Can Force the Sun to Shine or Wind to Blow
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Jun 26, 2015
https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2015/06/26/no-one-can-force-the-sun-to-shine-or-wind-to-blow/
AWED Energy & Environmental Newsletter: June 22, 2015
By John Droz, Jr. Master Resource, Jun 22, 2015
BLM Has Limited Assurance That Wind and Solar Projects Are Adequately Bonded
By Staff Writers, GAO, Jun 23, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-520
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Food in the Age of Biofuels
By José Graziano da Silva is Director-General of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. Project Syndicate, Jun 25, 2015
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Electric Cars: Not So Environmentally Friendly After All?
By Kerry Jackson, IBD, Jun 26, 2015
Environmental Industry
More Environmental Epic Fail
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Jun 24, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2015/06/more-environmental-epic-fail.php
And Still More Environmental Epic Fail
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, June 24, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2015/06/and-still-more-environmental-epic-fail.php
EWG’s Little Site Of Horrors
By Josh Bloom, Science 2.0, Jun 22, 2015
http://www.science20.com/pfired_but_still_kicking/ewgs_little_site_of_horrors-156244
It’s always the silly season for the green journo
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jun 22, 2015
Other Scientific News
I wonder if the global ear can ‘hear’ climate change
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jun 21, 2015
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/06/21/i-wonder-if-the-global-ear-can-hear-climate-change/
Other News that May Be of Interest
NYTimes: reducing time for urgent delivery of care for heart patients
By Staff Writers, ACSH, Jun 22, 2015
http://acsh.org/2015/06/nytimes-reducing-time-for-urgent-delivery-of-care-for-heart-patients/
Steady Progress On America’s Most Terrifying Epidemic: Alzheimer’s Disease
By Gilbert Ross and Henry I. Miller, Forbes, Jun 6, 2015 [H/t ACSH]
The inventor of vaping
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Jun 22, 2015
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/the-inventor-of-vaping.aspx
The Good-Governance Trap
By Jomo Kwame Sundaram, Coordinator for Economic and Social Development at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, and Michael T. Clark, Special Adviser on International Governance at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Project Syndicate, Jun 24, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Could adherence to a flawed ideology result in a trap?]
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BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Claim: Climate will inhibit bread dough from rising
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jun 21, 2015
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/06/21/claim-climate-will-inhibit-bread-dough-from-rising/
[SEPP Comment: Data lacking on the statement of less protein.]
Global warming causing hot dogs to slip out of buns
By Geoff Brown, Australian Climate Sceptics, Jun 24, 2015
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2015/06/global-warming-causing-hot-dogs-to-slip.html
Claim: Mankind will be extinct in 100 years because climate
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jun 20, 2015
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/06/20/claim-mankind-will-be-extinct-in-100-years-because-climate/
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Also, 70% of the glacial mass in Alberta and British Columbia will be gone by the year 2100 with devastating consequences for the freshwater ecosystem there. This conclusion was reached in a study by Professor Garry Clarke of the University of British Columbia (UBC). Perhaps WUWT could contact Professor Clarke for a guest post on the subject of deglaciation.
Here is his email address: clarke@eos.ubc.ca
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v8/n5/abs/ngeo2407.html
“A Solar Cooling? Members of the UK MET Office and others wrote a paper on the current decline in solar activity after a several-decade period of relatively high solar activity. The decline in activity may be prolonged and may become a grand solar minimum.”
So, a “decline in solar activity” means the sun is cooling? Is this how “a decline in solar activity” supposed to be interpreted? Cooling?
How about interpreting the term as something like “a decline of the sun’s episodes of mass ejections of itself into space”? I think this interpretation would be more accurate.
If the sun sends its energy to earth (and elsewhere) via luminosity AND via ejections of charge particles stripped off from itself then it sends its energy to earth (and elsewhere) by two methods, not just one. And if, for whatever reason, the second method the sun uses to send energy to earth – the mass ejections of itself – slows or ceases altogether then it doesn’t necessarily follow that the first method – its luminosity – will be affected one way or the other.
The story on West Australian fish, is one where the researchers don’t get out much.
“Warming Prompts Range Expansion of West Australian Reef Fish
Cure, K., Hobbs, J-P. A. and Harvey, E.S. 2015. High recruitment associated with increased sea temperatures towards the southern range edge of a Western Australian endemic reef fish Choerodon rubescens (family Labridae). Environ Biol Fish 98: 1059-1067. Jun 23, 2015
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V18/jun/a21.php”
My own take : http://pindanpost.com/2015/06/24/fishy-science/
“The NASA climate projections provide a detailed view of future temperature and precipitation patterns around the world at a 15.5 mile (25 kilometer) resolution, covering the time period from 1950 to 2100. The 11-terabyte dataset provides daily estimates of maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation over the entire globe.”
Hey NASA, the outputs of computer models are not DATA.
SAVED! The ECS is about 0.3 (about 2.5 doublings of CO2 to increase temperatures 1°C). Upper atmosphere water vapor is frozen and rained out before it can do its dastardly doublings!
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/gray2012.pdf
Peer review is to projections as polish is to turds.
“…up to 57,000 Americans could die per year from poor air quality by 2100, if action is not taken now.”
How will a few more molecules of CO2 in the air cause “poor air quality”? And how does that cause more deaths? If that is true, people should avoid being indoors with groups of people because they are all breathing out CO2. Are people who work in greenhouses dying at unusually high rates?