Claim: Gravity data show that Antarctic ice sheet is melting increasingly faster – but never mind the active volcanic region under the ice

From Princeton University, where they may not have read this paper that just happens to talk about the same area: West Antarctica.

Numerous volcanoes exist in Marie Byrd Land, a highland region of West Antarctica. High heat flow through the crust in this region may influence the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

The map from that article- compare to the one below it, while not exactly the same location, perhaps there is another volcanic process nearby? MtSidleyThere is other support for that idea:

New paper finds West Antarctic glacier likely melting from geothermal heat below

One major contributor to fast glacial flow is the presence of subglacial water, the production of which is a result of both glaciological shear heating and geothermal heat flux.

Here is the PR from Princeton:


princeton-antarctica
Princeton University researchers “weighed” Antarctica’s ice sheet using gravitational satellite data and found that from 2003 to 2014, the ice sheet lost 92 billion tons of ice per year. Credit: Image by Christopher Harig, Department of Geosciences

During the past decade, Antarctica’s massive ice sheet lost twice the amount of ice in its western portion compared with what it accumulated in the east, according to Princeton University researchers who came to one overall conclusion — the southern continent’s ice cap is melting ever faster.

The researchers “weighed” Antarctica’s ice sheet using gravitational satellite data and found that from 2003 to 2014, the ice sheet lost 92 billion tons of ice per year, the researchers report in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters. If stacked on the island of Manhattan, that amount of ice would be more than a mile high — more than five times the height of the Empire State Building.

The vast majority of that loss was from West Antarctica, which is the smaller of the continent’s two main regions and abuts the Antarctic Peninsula that winds up toward South America. Since 2008, ice loss from West Antarctica’s unstable glaciers doubled from an average annual loss of 121 billion tons of ice to twice that by 2014, the researchers found. The ice sheet on East Antarctica, the continent’s much larger and overall more stable region, thickened during that same time, but only accumulated half the amount of ice lost from the west, the researchers reported.

“We have a solution that is very solid, very detailed and unambiguous,” said co-author Frederik Simons, a Princeton associate professor of geosciences. “A decade of gravity analysis alone cannot force you to take a position on this ice loss being due to anthropogenic global warming. All we have done is take the balance of the ice on Antarctica and found that it is melting — there is no doubt. But with the rapidly accelerating rates at which the ice is melting, and in the light of all the other, well-publicized lines of evidence, most scientists would be hard pressed to find mechanisms that do not include human-made climate change.”

Compared to other types of data, the Princeton study shows that ice is melting from West Antarctica at a far greater rate than was previously known and that the western ice sheet is much more unstable compared to other regions of the continent, said first author Christopher Harig, a Princeton postdoctoral research associate in geosciences. Overall, ice-loss rates from all of Antarctica increased by 6 billion tons per year each year during the 11-year period the researchers examined. The melting rate from West Antarctica, however, grew by 18 billion tons per year every year, Harig and Simons found. Accelerations in ice loss are measured in tons per year, per year, or tons per year squared.

Of most concern, Harig said, is that this massive and accelerating loss occurred along West Antarctica’s Amundsen Sea, particularly Pine Island and the Thwaites Glacier, where heavy losses had already been recorded. An iceberg more than 2,000 square miles in size broke off from the Thwaites Glacier in 2002.

In Antarctica, it’s the ocean currents rather than air temperatures that melt the ice, and melted land ice contributes to higher sea levels in a way that melting icebergs don’t, Harig said. As the ocean warms, floating ice shelves melt and can no longer hold back the land ice.

“The fact that West Antarctic ice-melt is still accelerating is a big deal because it’s increasing its contribution to sea-level rise,” Harig said. “It really has potential to be a runaway problem. It has come to the point that if we continue losing mass in those areas, the loss can generate a self-reinforcing feedback whereby we will be losing more and more ice, ultimately raising sea levels by tens of feet.”

The Princeton study differs from existing approaches to measuring Antarctic ice loss in that it derives from the only satellite data that measure the mass of ice rather than its volume, which is more typical, Simons explained. He and Harig included monthly data from GRACE, or the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, a dual-satellite joint mission between NASA and the German Aerospace Center. GRACE measures gravity changes to determine the time-variable behavior of various components in the Earth’s mass system such as ocean currents, earthquake-induced changes and melting ice. Launched in 2002, the GRACE satellites are expected to be retired by 2016 with the first of two anticipated replacement missions scheduled for 2017.

While the volume of an ice sheet — or how much space it takes up — is also crucial information, it can change without affecting the amount of ice that is present, Simons explained. Snow and ice, for instance, compact under their own weight so that to the lasers that are bounced off the ice’s surface to determine volume, there appears to be a reduction in the amount of ice, Simons said. Mass or weight, on the other hand, changes when ice is actually redistributed and lost.

Simons equated the difference between measuring ice volume and mass to a person weighing himself by only looking in the mirror instead of standing on a scale.

“You shouldn’t only look at the ice volume — you should also weigh it to find the mass changes,” Simons said. “But there isn’t going to be a whole lot of research of this type coming up because the GRACE satellites are on their last legs. This could be the last statement of this kind on these kinds of data for a long time. There may be a significant data gap during which the only monitoring available will not be by ‘weighing’ but by ‘looking’ via laser or radar altimetry, photogrammetry or field studies.”

Harig and Simons developed a unique data-analysis method that allowed them to separate GRACE data by specific Antarctic regions. Because the ice sheet behaves differently in different areas, a continent-wide view would provide a general sense of how all of the ice mass, taken together, has changed, but exclude finer-scale geographical detail and temporal fluctuations. They recently published a paper about their computational methods in the magazine EOS, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, and used a similar method for a 2012 paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that revealed sharper-than-ever details about Greenland’s accelerating loss of its massive ice sheet.

Robert Kopp, a Rutgers University associate professor of earth and planetary sciences and associate director of the Rutgers Energy Institute, said the analysis method Harig and Simons developed allowed them to capture a view of regional Antarctic ice loss “more accurately than previous approaches.” Beyond the recent paper, Harig and Simons’ method could be important for testing models of Antarctic ice-sheet stability developed by other researchers, he said.

“The notable feature of this research is the power of their method to resolve regions geographically in gravity data,” Kopp said. “I expect that [their] technique will be an important part of monitoring future changes in the ice sheet and testing such models.”

###

The paper, “Accelerated West Antarctic ice mass loss continues to outpace East Antarctic gains,” was published in the April 1 edition of Earth and Planetary Science Letters. The research was supported by the National Science Foundation (grant nos. PLR-1245788 and EAR-1014606).

Abstract

While multiple data sources have confirmed that Antarctica is losing ice at an accelerating rate, different measurement techniques estimate the details of its geographically highly variable mass balance with different levels of accuracy, spatio-temporal resolution, and coverage. Some scope remains for methodological improvements using a single data type. In this study we report our progress in increasing the accuracy and spatial resolution of time-variable gravimetry from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). We determine the geographic pattern of ice mass change in Antarctica between January 2003 and June 2014, accounting for glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) using the IJ05_R2 model. Expressing the unknown signal in a sparse Slepian basis constructed by optimization to prevent leakage out of the regions of interest, we use robust signal processing and statistical estimation methods. Applying those to the latest time series of monthly GRACE solutions we map Antarctica’s mass loss in space and time as well as can be recovered from satellite gravity alone. Ignoring GIA model uncertainty, over the period 2003–2014, West Antarctica has been losing ice mass at a rate of −121±8 Gt/yr and has experienced large acceleration of ice mass losses along the Amundsen Sea coast of −18±5 Gt/yr2, doubling the mass loss rate in the past six years. The Antarctic Peninsula shows slightly accelerating ice mass loss, with larger accelerated losses in the southern half of the Peninsula. Ice mass gains due to snowfall in Dronning Maud Land have continued to add about half the amount of West Antarctica’s loss back onto the continent over the last decade. We estimate the overall mass losses from Antarctica since January 2003 at −92±10 Gt/yr.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X15000564

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Janice Moore
May 1, 2015 5:49 pm

“The vast majority of that loss was from West Antarctica, … .”
“… the balance of the ice on Antarctica … is melting… .”
(Above article)
Wrong.

… East Antarctica, which holds > 80% of Antarctic ice mass and does not have any known underlying volcanoes, is significantly increasing in ice mass.

{Source: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/12/new-paper-finds-west-antarctic-glacier-likely-melting-from-geothermal-heat-below/ }

Siberian Husky
Reply to  Janice Moore
May 1, 2015 6:10 pm

Read what you’ve written again, then slap yourself in the head.

Janice Moore
Reply to  Siberian Husky
May 1, 2015 6:21 pm

Dear Ms. or Mr. Husky,
Please help me, then. It seemed to me that if over 80% of Antarctic ice not only not melting, but increasing in mass, then it is wrong to say that “the balance of Antarctic ice” (given that in common English useage, “the balance of” usually means “the greater part of”) is melting.
Thanks!
Janice

Janice Moore
Reply to  Siberian Husky
May 1, 2015 6:40 pm

Never mind, Husky. LOL, I just did a little research into your typical comment…. YOU ARE A TROLL! lololol Oh, brother. Well, welcome to WUWT. Have fun marking doing your “business” (well, that’s what my dogs call it!) all over the place…..

Latitude
Reply to  Siberian Husky
May 1, 2015 6:46 pm

Husky can’t tell his west from his east…LOL
IN the mean time…..we have another paper with a hysterical tipping point

Reply to  Siberian Husky
May 1, 2015 7:42 pm

argumentum in statera antarcticum

Janice Moore
Reply to  Siberian Husky
May 1, 2015 8:44 pm

Dear Latitude, SMC, and Schitzree,
Thank you.
Janice

Reply to  Siberian Husky
May 1, 2015 9:13 pm

*Ahem* … what about me?
(I was trying to stand up for you by making fun of Siberian Husky’s claim of a logical fallacy.)

Reply to  Siberian Husky
May 1, 2015 9:17 pm

Oh, I see the problem … I meant to post below SMC @7:21

Janice Moore
Reply to  Siberian Husky
May 2, 2015 6:48 am

Dear Max,
Thank YOU. 🙂
Janice

Arno Arrak
Reply to  Siberian Husky
May 2, 2015 8:47 pm

Siberian Husky May 1, 2015 at 6:10 pm: “Read what you’ve written again, then slap yourself in the head.”
A coyote in fact. Your stupidity annoys me.

Siberian Husky
Reply to  Janice Moore
May 1, 2015 6:52 pm

So basically after a very strong hint has been given to you about the logical fallacy in your statement, you still can’t work out why what you’ve said is nonsense?

SMC
Reply to  Siberian Husky
May 1, 2015 7:21 pm

I realize I shouldn’t feed the trolls but, I can’t help myself.
@Siberian Husky, please enlighten me. I am a poor ignorant skeptic looking for religion. Please elucidate the logical fallacy. I wait with bated breath.

Reply to  Siberian Husky
May 1, 2015 7:38 pm

Who Cares? At the melt rate you quote, it will only take 300,000 years for all of antarctica to melt. Excuse everyone for not being alarmed. https://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2015/02/28/antarctica-losing-130-gigatons-of-ice-per-year-last-year-it-was-159-gigatons-per-year/

schitzree
Reply to  Siberian Husky
May 1, 2015 8:19 pm

So basically after a very strong hint has been given to you about the logical fallacy in your statement, you still can’t work out why what you’ve said is nonsense?
Hmm, A very strong hint, you say? lets see.

Read what you’ve written again

OH! Now I See! Janice ‘Den1ed Teh Science!’ An Obvious mistake when you consider it. An ecclesiastic one, you might say. ^_^

schitzree
Reply to  Siberian Husky
May 1, 2015 8:23 pm

Whoops, misspelled Blockquote in the first quote and it didn’t get quoted.

Bryan A
Reply to  Janice Moore
May 1, 2015 10:30 pm

Interestingly enough, the area of greatest melt is also the area of greatest heat from the Mt. Takahi volcano in West Antarctica

4TimesAYear
Reply to  Bryan A
May 2, 2015 12:06 am

And of course if and when the thing finally breaks through the ice, they will say it was the melting that caused the volcano to erupt. Nothing like putting carts before horses 😉

Arno Arrak
Reply to  Janice Moore
May 2, 2015 8:35 pm

Janice Moore May 1, 2015 at 5:49 pm
You are absolutely right, Janice. Problem with this paper and others I have looked at is that the authors just don’t do their homework. In this case, they attempt to use a short observation period (2003 to 2014) and fancy that they can explain the past and the future of a continent from that. Antarctic warming has had its ups and downs and a lot of it is recorded in scientific literature which they totally ignore. Fortunately I made a summary of it in my book [1]. First, Scherer et al. [2] noted already in 1998 that WAIS (West Antarctic Ice Sheet) had collapsed at least once in Pleistocene. Ohguchi et al. [3] took a more detailed view and determined that WAIS was subject to periodic collapses. They demonstrated that a large amount of melt water had cascaded into the Ross Sea 18,000 years ago, then again 10,500 years ago, again 5,500 tears ago, and finally 1,500 years ago. None of these melts were human-caused. But the authors still pretend to be on the fence about the anthropogenic component in the warming they detected, obviously for idealogical reasons, even though nothing points to human causation. With the history of past periodic collapses of WAIS it is highly likely that any warming that can be observed now is just a fringe part of this oscillatory behavior.
[1] Arno Arrak, “What Warming? Satellite view of global temperature change (CreateSpace 2010)” page 38.
[2] Scherer et al. Science (3 July 1998)
[3] Ohguci et al. Geochimica et Cosmochemica Acta 70:453

angech2014
May 1, 2015 5:57 pm

How does the ice melt an disappear?
It is too cold on the land to melt at all.
The argument re ” As the ocean warms, floating ice shelves melt and can no longer hold back the land ice.’
is patently false as sea ice extent has been at record levels over the last decade.
The answer is that the GRACE algorithms used which have a massive known error range have been interpreted by these “authors” to the utmost edge of the data which would support an “the Antarctic is melting theme”.
Bad science and Horrible ethics at play.
Why does one of their assistant programmers not dob them in?
Why do not people use common sense?

sophocles
Reply to  angech2014
May 2, 2015 1:21 am

Why do not people use common sense?

because:
1. common sense is an especially rare commodity in AGW
2. it will endanger the likelihood of the next grant
3. it would be too sensible.
Choose any two.

Bryan A
Reply to  sophocles
May 2, 2015 8:47 am

In the ranks of the AGW indoctrinated:
“Common Sense is Highly Uncommon”

May 1, 2015 5:59 pm

We have a solution that is very solid, very detailed and unambiguous,” said co-author Frederik Simons, a Princeton associate professor of geosciences. “A decade of gravity analysis alone cannot force you to take a position on this ice loss being due to anthropogenic global warming.

OK, so actual data regarding the mass of ice lost does not point to an anthropogenic cause.

But with the rapidly accelerating rates at which the ice is melting, and in the light of all the other, well-publicized lines of evidence, most scientists would be hard pressed to find mechanisms that do not include human-made climate change.

Whoa, wave hands much? Presumably, the “decade of gravity analysis” showed “the rapidly accelerating rates [rates?] at which the ice is melting,” yet that wasn’t enough to point the finger at AGW. However “other, well-publicized lines of evidence” [being what, please?] make it hard for “most scientists” to find other mechanisms?
So many weasel words in one statement. I expect better from geologists.

Reply to  James Schrumpf
May 1, 2015 6:55 pm

Yes, it’s a pity but some geologists have fallen for the easy money behind the AGW scheme.

Reply to  Andres Valencia
May 2, 2015 12:21 am

Too many rocks banged on his head[geologist] or not enough rocks in his drinks.

Reply to  James Schrumpf
May 1, 2015 8:02 pm

Does near-supersonic hand-waving warm or cool the planet?

Eamon Butler
Reply to  James Schrumpf
May 3, 2015 4:51 am

James Schrumpf
I think, essentially it means they are willing to go along with the CAGW idea because someone else said it was true. Circular logic. A bit like a dog having a some fun with his tail.
Eamon.

Arno Arrak
Reply to  James Schrumpf
May 3, 2015 4:17 pm

As I pointed out in my previous comment, the authors simply had no idea about what happened in the Antarctic before they started taking their data. This is specifically true of this one, Fred Simons of Princeton, who claims to have a “solution” that is ” …very solid, very detailed and unambiguous….” According to him, “…rapidly accelerating rates at which the ice is melting, and in the light of all the other, well-publicized lines of evidence, most scientists would be hard pressed to find mechanisms that do not include human-made climate change…” Note that he deludes here to be speaking for “most scientists.” He is dead wrong of course and his “well-publicized” lines of evidence are simply a lie. What the evidence in scientific literature does point to is that WAIS has been subject to periodic collapses which have been traced as far back as the Pleistocene. None of the five recorded collapses on record are human-caused but in his ignorance of this fact the true believer in him comes out. He just grabs this chance to invent a weasel-worded scenario that would put Antarctica into the realm of his imaginary climate change. In view of what we know about the past collapses of WAIS any warming that GRACE actually detected is very likely just a fringe expression of the broader instability WAIS has been subjected to over centuries.

KenB
May 1, 2015 6:05 pm

I think all Australians should grab this shonky release, hype it, and ask that the rest of the world who thinks they might be inundated by sea level rise, pay us to keep our massive white elephant desalination plants (presently all mothballed and still costing us heaps of taxpayer money, though idle) running day and night to lower these unseen but “real” sea level rises.
Standing by for a flow of massive dollars to finance that UN proposal, note to Prime Minister Abbot – this could even fix budgetary problems caused by pesky greens and other lefties in the Senate as with any UN largesse there is always heaps of money that can be siphoned off as history shows.
If you can’t beat the sods, join them with snouts in the trough.!

Reply to  KenB
May 2, 2015 12:24 am

That desalination scandal of yours is at the top of the list of corruption. Why it is not a topic for well known science communicators alludes me.

Anything is possible
May 1, 2015 6:17 pm

“If stacked on the island of Manhattan, that amount of ice would be more than a mile high — more than five times the height of the Empire State Building.”
==============================================
If stacked on the continent of Antarctica, that amount of ice would be more than 0.5cm high — more than ten times the width of a human fingernail.

Janice Moore
Reply to  Anything is possible
May 1, 2015 6:23 pm

+10 #(:))

Reply to  Anything is possible
May 1, 2015 6:51 pm

+1

Reply to  Anything is possible
May 1, 2015 6:57 pm

Thanks for putting numbers to it.

schitzree
Reply to  Anything is possible
May 1, 2015 7:11 pm

And if melted into the worlds Oceans, that amount of ice would raise Sea Level by less then 0.2mm.

SMC
Reply to  schitzree
May 1, 2015 7:23 pm

which is what, about 1/5 the width of a human finger nail?

Reply to  schitzree
May 1, 2015 9:46 pm

Yeah, the sea level dudes need to up their game some and lie a bit harder to make the phony numbers match.

Eugene WR Gallun
Reply to  Anything is possible
May 1, 2015 11:00 pm

Anything is possible
more than ten times the width of a human finernail
got to love it!!!! — Eugene WR Gallun

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  Anything is possible
May 2, 2015 3:50 am

And if stacked on top of the whole US it would be a whopping .003 inches, give or take. Scary!
Now we just need to know how many Hiroshimas it would take to melt that.
These things are important.

Reply to  Bruce Cobb
May 2, 2015 11:18 am

” If stacked on the island of Manhattan, that amount of ice would be more than a mile high — more than five times the height of the Empire State Building.”
I am thinking that the author of this sentence has never played Jenga
.http://www.hasbro.com/common/productimages/en_US/92ffa0296d4010148bf09efbf894f9d4/276AE3F919B9F369D9EC4D01542F2D73.jpg

Bernie
Reply to  Anything is possible
May 2, 2015 4:40 am

Really impressive would be: “If stacked on the DFW Airport, that amount of ice would be more than a mile high…”
https://www.yahoo.com/travel/airport-review-we-size-up-the-texas-sized-dallas-fort-94103163782.html

RH
Reply to  Anything is possible
May 5, 2015 12:08 pm

X100

May 1, 2015 6:24 pm

If ice loss was uniform across the continent, THEN and only then, you might be able to correlate to rising CO2 and global warming. The fact that the larger part of the continent is increasing its ice and the part that is decreasing is in a volcanically active area screams the opposite. This is regardless of the net effect

Leo Geiger
May 1, 2015 6:33 pm

I see this research is a “claim”. The research about geothermal heating under West Antarctica generally isn’t tagged with “claim”, such as the research by UTIG about Thwaites glacier last year:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/09/uh-oh-study-says-collapsing-thwaites-glacier-in-antarctica-melting-from-geothermal-heat-not-co2-heat-effects/
So when the lead author of that geothermal study, Dusty Schroeder, says:

“The fastest glacial changes are happening where the ocean is warmer,” Schroeder said. “Geothermal heating is not enough by itself to have caused the observed changes.”

is the ‘ocean warmer’ part a “claim” but the ‘geothermal’ part “research”?

Robert B
Reply to  Leo Geiger
May 2, 2015 1:38 am

The amount of heat from a volcanic mount will not be enough to provide the energy to melt that amount of ice that has disappeared. The ocean water, though, is above melting point and always was. Its greater circulation that cause the terminus of glaciers to melt and flow quicker. Only glacier basins are claimed to be melting. The rest of West Antarctica is neutral and East Antarctica is growing, as measured.
So the areas that do not have ice flow into the sea are not affected. The areas that flow through to a terminus that is affected by volcanic activity is.

Leo Geiger
Reply to  Robert B
May 2, 2015 7:27 am

Schroeder’s statement pointed out that the changes in West Antarctica can’t be explained as entirely due to geothermal heating, even though it plays a role:

In response to those who are using his study to deny climate change, Schroeder confirmed that volcanic activity is not the dominant force of ice loss and rising sea levels.

Similarly:

Rignot, also the lead author of a study out last month that documented widespread retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, said geothermal heating contributes to a few millimeters of melting annually, compared to rising sea temperatures which can trigger rates of up to 100 meters each year.

The scientific community isn’t ignoring geothermal activity in the area. But unlike this blog they don’t treat research like an à la carte menu, picking a few things one likes and sending the rest back to the kitchen. As even this new paper says:

Ultimately, the continental ice sheet response to global change is the sum of the behaviors within individual drainage basins, which are subject to the combined effects of surface mass balance, calving and basal melting, and influenced by their geographic location and topog-raphy.

Highlighting a few bits of research when it aligns with one’s perceptions while dismissing the rest as mere “claims” is a poor way to do science. Seems to be a common way to run a blog, though.

Crispin in Waterloo
Reply to  Robert B
May 2, 2015 12:14 pm

Leo G
I don’t think may people here or elsewhere blame ‘volcanoes’ for ice mass loss. What I do see at other sites are claims that ‘global warming’ causes a) the increase in precipitation in East Antarctica, b) ice shelf mass loss, c) ice extent retreating, d) acceleration of the movement of glaciers, and e) ice mass loss on the West Coast.
I have seen all of these things attributed not only to ‘global warming’ but specifically to a man-caused increase in the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.
I have also noted from other sources that a) precipitation is not abnormal in East Antarctica, b) the ice shelf mass varies in long cycles and is basically unchanged around the continent, c) the sea ice is extending, not retreating, d) glaciers accelerate and slow for a variety of reasons so when they accelerate and extend further it is blamed on global warming and when they slow or retreat it too is blamed on global warming, e) the ice mass loss on the West Coast seems to have something to do with sea water temperature, nothing to do with the land warming enough to ‘melt’.
The mainland is never really above the freezing point as inland it is always far below zero C. The idea that there is continental warming is dubious because it is not supported by measurements. Stieg’s infamous and hollow claim, printed on the front of Nature is a case in point. Measurements in the ‘warming area of ice loss’ and the East are all indicative of a slightly declining continental temperature. There are many charts showing this.
Thus sneering at this blog for ‘picking’ data or papers is pointless. We look at everything here, not just confirmation bias supporting ‘global warming’.

May 1, 2015 6:41 pm

From my admittedly poor understanding of volcanoes and gravity, could the Grace satellite be picking up density changes under the ice because of land subsidence from a collapsing volcano? I guess what i am really wondering is what does the Yellowstone Caldera look like to Grace?

Latitude
Reply to  jinghis
May 1, 2015 6:47 pm

Sea floor volcanoes increase gravity over them….makes that big constant sea level anomaly in the Pacific
…the one that shows sea levels constantly rising

Reply to  Latitude
May 1, 2015 6:53 pm

Yes if they are constantly rising, but the Yellowstone Caldera rises and falls, and it is constantly monitored.
Do the Grace satellite readings on the Yellowstone Caldera agree with the other measurements there?

Reply to  Latitude
May 1, 2015 7:53 pm

Been a long time since my geology courses, but as I recall, plate tectonics theory back in the late ’70s was that since basaltic magmas were much heavier than granitic magmas, the seafloors tended to be basalt and continents tended to granite. Everything was floating on the outer mantle, and the heavy stuff (basalt) floated lower and made seafloors, while the relatively lighter granite floated higher and made continents.
The type of magma intrusion might make all the difference in a mass-sensing satellite: if the magma were high-density basalt, it should register increasing mass; if it were relatively low-density granite, it should register the same or decreasing.
Or I might be misremembering the whole thing, or the theory was all disproved 30 years ago. What says the current theory of plate tectonics?

Reply to  Latitude
May 1, 2015 9:42 pm

James, that’s about right.

Latitude
Reply to  Latitude
May 2, 2015 11:29 am

jinghis
May 1, 2015 at 6:53 pm
Yes if they are constantly rising
===
nope, it’s the mass that increases gravity…satellites just read it as an anomaly

michael hart
May 1, 2015 6:46 pm

So the the new S.I. unit of ice is the Empire State-Manhattan.

RH
Reply to  michael hart
May 5, 2015 12:29 pm

“So the the new S.I. unit of ice is the Empire State-Manhattan.”
Yep, it’s all about making scary headlines. People think a gigaton is always a big number and Manhattan is always a big place. Never mind that depending on context and scale, they could be tiny.

Neil Jordan
May 1, 2015 6:50 pm

Enough examples have been described to justify posting this here. A colleague emailed me the following link, to a poster illustrating twelve features of bad science.
http://www.compoundchem.com/2014/04/02/a-rough-guide-to-spotting-bad-science/
The poster (suitable for framing) can be downloaded, but note the content usage guidelines beneath the download button.

Janice Moore
Reply to  Neil Jordan
May 1, 2015 6:54 pm

Very nice summary. Thanks for sharing that great chart, Mr. Jordan.

imoira
Reply to  Neil Jordan
May 2, 2015 6:35 pm

Thank you.

May 1, 2015 7:04 pm

I share angech’s puzzlement. Warm sea currents do not melt the ice on land. Balmy tropical breezes are not blowing across West Antarctica. It is still an area best avoided by brass monkeys who wish to retain their virility. The air temperatures are below freezing, are they not?
So how is Global Warming melting the ice there? Has all the sea ice disappeared from the coast, so that the land ice is sliding into the sea rather than melting? If so, why do I see pictures of Antarctica surrounded by more ice than ever?

Leo Geiger
Reply to  RoHa
May 1, 2015 9:01 pm

The Antarctic ice sheet is, for the most part, not “on land”. It is sitting on bedrock that is below sea level. Perhaps a picture will help:
http://cdn.antarcticglaciers.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/PIG.ai_.jpg
Sea ice and floating ice shelves are completely different things. Sea ice is the sea surface that has frozen into a relatively thin sheet due to cold air. Ice shelves are the floating portions of glaciers/ice sheets that have reached the ocean.

billw1984
Reply to  Leo Geiger
May 2, 2015 5:45 am

From the picture, it is clear that the ROV is mixing in warm water and melting the ice. So, it is caused
by humans!! Now we just have to tell them to stop sending the ROVs that direction.

Reply to  Leo Geiger
May 2, 2015 7:59 pm

Thanks. That diagram helps. So what is allegedly melting faster is deep sea ice, not land ice. And I presume it is supposed to be melting faster because the circumpolar water has been warmed up by AGW. Is there any deep sea ice on the other side of Antarctica, and is it melting faster, too? If not, why is the circumpolar water only warm on one side?

Bryan A
Reply to  Leo Geiger
May 3, 2015 9:28 am

It appears the greatest effect from the warmest currents, and thereby the greatest area of melt, lies in the region of greatest volcanic activity adjacent to Mt. Takahe where the ground is almost 4 times warmer than the continental average

RACookPE1978
Editor
Reply to  Leo Geiger
May 3, 2015 3:07 pm

Leo Geiger

The Antarctic ice sheet is, for the most part, not “on land”. It is sitting on bedrock that is below sea level. Perhaps a picture will help …

the Antarctic land ice is 14.0 Mkm^2.
The total Antarctic shelf ice is 1.5 Mkm^2.
Your simplified graphic is accurate for less than 10% of the total Antarctic “fixed ice”.
Given that the surrounding ever-increasing Antarctic sea ice extent – now 25% to 35% greater than normal across all times of the year under all seasons for the last five years – is 3 Mkm^2 to 20 Mkm^2, even such a simplified graphic is accurate for only part of the 1.5 Mkm^2 of the total 35 Mkm^2 … Your graphic is overly simplified, and even for the PIG, makes gross assumptions for the underside of the glacier.
For example, the retreat of the Thwaites and Pine Island glacier can also be explained by an increase in glacier thickness, thus grounding them in deeper water than before.

May 1, 2015 7:07 pm

The news today is also reporting on an extensive undersea eruption off the coast of Oregon and Washington. Seems like a pretty good source for warming of the gyre. It also seems that no one wants to account for any of the contribution of the deep sea vents to sea level rise; It moves continents nothing else. I mean it hasn’t been 20 years since we discovered an entire kingdom of life not dependent of photosynthesis that is reputed to outweigh all of the rest of the Kingdom of life as we new it. Go figure; the things we don’t know about will fill books someday!

taxed
Reply to  fossilsage
May 1, 2015 7:41 pm

lt sounds like that undersea eruption is right where “the blob” is, that been the case will it help to make The Blob stronger and longer lasting?.

Eugene WR Gallun
Reply to  taxed
May 1, 2015 11:15 pm

I — I — I live in Portland, Oregon. Oh! God! I am doomed!!!!! — Eugene WR Gallun

Reply to  taxed
May 1, 2015 11:30 pm

The Blob is upper sea temps. So it is unlikely that this undersea activity would affect surface temps. Besides, it looks to me that the Blob has reached the end of it,s life. The cooler surface waters to the west are now encroaching into the center of the Blob. By the end of the summer conditions in that region will look entirely different. What is scary is that the Cascadia Fault is ripe for the next major quake. Could it be that this underwater volcanic activity is what leads to the triggering of the somewhat cyclical quakes on this fault? Perhaps it is further connected with changes in the Sun during it,s weak cycles.

sophocles
Reply to  taxed
May 2, 2015 1:31 am

Axial Sea Mount .. it’s been erupting on and off since 2011.

Reply to  fossilsage
May 1, 2015 7:58 pm
Janice Moore
Reply to  Max Photon
May 1, 2015 8:07 pm

Well done, Max! Thanks for sharing that with us.

Reply to  Max Photon
May 1, 2015 8:15 pm

“Waiter, I’ll have the Juan de Fuca Plate, with a side of Blanco Fracture Zone. Easy on the Gorda Ridge, please.”
Those are some wicked right angles, though. Geology can be surprising sometimes.

Reply to  Max Photon
May 1, 2015 8:27 pm

Here’s a bit of a non sequitur, but look at the stunning absence of seismic activity along both the Juan de Fuca Ridge and the Cascadia Subduction Zone.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/states/seismicity/images/westernus_small.jpg

Reply to  fossilsage
May 1, 2015 8:12 pm

Don Rumsfeld was laughed at when he talked about “known unknowns” and “unknown unknowns.” I guess since the libs/leftards/progressives know everything, the concept of “things unknown” is alien to them.

May 1, 2015 7:15 pm

Thanks, Anthony.
Yes, it’s hot, but never mind the volcano under our feet; it’s global warming, er, I meant Climate Change.

SMC
Reply to  Andres Valencia
May 1, 2015 7:27 pm

you mean Climate Disruption

May 1, 2015 7:31 pm

Notice the Headlines always says “Antarctica” is losing ice, but (sometimes buried) in the article it will then say it’s only “Western Antarctica”
That’s like having a headline saying “Extreme Drought grips North America” but when you read the article it says only Southern California
Just another example of the lying press

Andy
May 1, 2015 7:38 pm

Here’s a Cliff Clavin little known fact: Most of the sub-glacial topography of West Antarctica is below sea level. Although the sub-glacial topography of the hot spot on the map above is above sea level.comment image

Crispin in Waterloo
May 1, 2015 7:42 pm

We have been here before. Here’s the bottom line: If the melting continues at this rate, the entire ice cap will be gone in 271,000 years, maybe three ice ages from now. Or not.
Given that the continent is still (supposedly) emerging from the last ice age, is it a surprise that the ice mass is decreasing? I certainly hope it continues! If the ice were increasing in mass it would be a very bad sign indeed because that might presage the descent into the next civilisation-killing global climate cycle – one I hope to avoid witnessing.
I liked the bit about stacking that ice on Manhattan Island and how it would be a mile high. How irrelevant! If they stacked all the ice on Antarctica on Manhattan it would reach 27,000 miles past the far side of the moon.

4TimesAYear
Reply to  Crispin in Waterloo
May 2, 2015 12:09 am

Love it!

Neo
May 1, 2015 8:00 pm

A couple of years ago, I tried to post on one of those sites that delete postings that they don’t like. One of the regulars had written a piece in the NYTimes, I do believe. He wrote about the melting on the South Pole. I pointed out that the melting was due to a volcano, which elicited a reply that it was under 2 miles of ice. Oddly enough, their was a link to another story on the page at the NYT. The other story reported how for the first time on record, a volcano in Antarctica had melted through the ice.

Kuldebar
Reply to  Neo
May 1, 2015 10:28 pm

This one?
Scientists Find Active Volcano in Antarctica
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/21/world/21volcano.html
” In an article published Sunday on the Web site of the journal Nature Geoscience, Hugh F. J. Corr and David G. Vaughan of the British Antarctic Survey report the identification of a layer of volcanic ash and glass shards frozen within an ice sheet in western Antarctica.
For Antarctica, “This is the first time we have seen a volcano beneath the ice sheet punch a hole through the ice sheet,” Dr. Vaughan said.
Heat from a volcano could still be melting ice and contributing to the thinning and speeding up of the Pine Island Glacier, which passes nearby, but Dr. Vaughan doubted that it could be affecting other glaciers in West Antarctica, which have also thinned in recent years. Most glaciologists, including Dr. Vaughan, say that warmer ocean water is the primary cause.”
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/01/20/world/21volcano.largegraphic.jpg

Crispin in Waterloo
Reply to  Kuldebar
May 2, 2015 8:32 am

The scary part of the radar scan is it proves there has been a lot of ice accumulation since 323 BC. That cannot be good for any reason. Has anyone calculated the drop in sea level involved in such an accumulation?
Maybe northern ice melting is offsetting the growing pile of ice in Antarctica. If it gets heavy enough it will swing the Earth’s tilt to one side, suddenly. How can we melt more of the ice?

masInt branch 4 C3I in is
May 1, 2015 8:00 pm

Some obvious problems:
1. Bouguer anomaly accounted for and removed? No.
2. Terrain Effects (with wind fields as per changes of water equivalent mass in turbulent boundary layer) accounted for and removed? No.
The cruel joke on the Authors (and Editor and Reviewers) is that … they will inherit the wind [as in Gone With The Wind]!
Snicker snicker … Ha ha ha ha.

Kuldebar
May 1, 2015 8:07 pm

This is the logic:
http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/158/333/9190172.jpg
The ice is melting fast, not say it’s man-made global warming….but well, what else could it possibly be?

Janice Moore
Reply to  Kuldebar
May 1, 2015 8:08 pm

lol

Reply to  Janice Moore
May 2, 2015 9:51 am

exactly

Reply to  Kuldebar
May 1, 2015 9:57 pm

The Mother of All Logical Fallacies: Post hoc,ergo propter hoc…
i.e. Since there is a correlation between ice-cream consumption and shark attacks, eating ice cream causes shark attacks… What else could it be?
Not so much…

David Chappell
Reply to  SAMURAI
May 2, 2015 8:11 am

On the other hand, sharks attacks could be the cause of ice-cream consumption.

Crispin in Waterloo
Reply to  SAMURAI
May 2, 2015 8:33 am

You gotta stay cool somehow.

Reply to  Kuldebar
May 2, 2015 9:50 am

exactly!

May 1, 2015 8:14 pm

Covered this in essay Tipping Points. This new estimate is a third of what Rignot published last year for Pine Island and Thwaites, which got much more sensational, NASA supported headlines. Rignot’s estimate was an outlier to all others. This new one is back to previous estimates, and the ‘acceleration’ is within GRACE estimate error, especially given a decaying satellite system where lead and follow have had to be switched.

Ray Boorman
May 1, 2015 8:31 pm

Okay, a question for the experts. How does an instrument measuring gravity from space decide what part is the weight of ice sitting on land & what part is the weight of the land?

May 1, 2015 8:37 pm

I found the researcher’s Manhattan Island/Empire State Building ice-loss reference rather amusing:comment image?1256004203&Expires=1430618794&Signature=o58sYvPBMUtjv8F8xo9fI27fk2LLWX-a5vILRPDt7oDcXjd1xqW~xkjoXiSi87GxuQs2KQVSzElgxFrKSE6hGvh0ZsSzi6LHJXElm3mjC4xTTQfm0xShwOS43FtXJOJXF84z8qiUdSyc6Tq0SnaK4LGSiD5yGOO-tBrDW2t0tCY_&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIYVGSUJFNRFZBBTA
Whenever “scientists” use such lame references, the paper isn’t about science, it’s pure propaganda…
ICESAT satellite measurements show Antarctica is losing land Ice on the West Coast and gaining land ice on the East Coast for a net GAIN of around 40 GT/yr.
GRACE data has relatively large error bars, so in light of the ICESAT data, it’s perhaps more scientific to say it’s inconclusive whether Antarctica is gaining or losing land ice.
Regardless, both GRACE and ICESAT show land-ice increasing on the West Coast, so if CO2 is to blame, why is the loss centered on such a relatively small area of the Antarctic, that also just happens to correspond with a volcanic hot zone… Hmmmm.. Why indeed…
Given the religious nature of CAGW zealots, I’m reminded of the Bible verse:
“For it’s by GRACE ye are saved through faith, and not of works…lest any man should boast.”

Crispin in Waterloo
Reply to  SAMURAI
May 2, 2015 8:53 am

“GRACE data has relatively large error bars, so in light of the ICESAT data, it’s perhaps more scientific to say it’s inconclusive whether Antarctica is gaining or losing land ice.”
It would be more scientific to say that there is no detectable change in the ice mass on land in Antarctica. If there is a change that is lower that the Limit of Quantification of the measurement system then any change is literally undetectable.
Getting ‘a different number’ because the reporting precision of the system reports it does not mean the difference is automatically larger than the inaccuracy of the system. If the system’s accuracy is plus-minus 250 gigatons, talk of +40 or -92 Gt is just that: talk.
If the difference is greater that sigma 1 (one standard deviation) from the mean of the readings then one can report the difference ‘with 66% confidence’. If you need 95% confidence you have to get a difference that is outside the 2 sigma band (two standard deviations) distance from the mean. Measuring a large number of times increases the precision of the ‘real’ mean value but it has no effect on the accuracy of the measurement system which is inherent.
That is what is so important about the failure of climate models. The actual temperatures are outside the 2 sigma range of most model’s predictions. We can therefore say with 95% confidence the models are unable to predict the impact of rising CO2 because they get it so wrong.
What is the Limit of detection (LoD) and Limit of quantification (LoQ) of the Grace system? What is the precision? What is the accuracy? Know that, and you know how to consider the claims.

Goldie
May 1, 2015 8:48 pm

None of which alters the ongoing meme of ice melting – I travelled on the antarctic flight last year only to be told by the “experts” they had on board that Antarctica was melting right across the continent.

Chris Hanley
May 1, 2015 8:52 pm

‘the southern continent’s ice cap is melting ever faster …’.
====================================
Goodness that is a poser because whatever is causing the melt, it cannot be the surface air temperature:
http://www.climate4you.com/images/70-90S%20MonthlyAnomaly%20Since2000.gif

Janice Moore
Reply to  Chris Hanley
May 1, 2015 8:58 pm

Yes, indeed…
Current Weather Conditions:
Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station, Antarctica
(NZSP) 90-00S 00-00E 2835M
Conditions at
May 01, 2015 – 07:50 PM EDT May 01, 2015 – 06:50 PM CDT May 01, 2015 – 05:50 PM MDT May 01, 2015 – 04:50 PM PDT May 01, 2015 – 03:50 PM ADT May 01, 2015 – 01:50 PM HST
2015.05.01 2350 UTC
Wind from the N (010 degrees) at 17 MPH (15 KT)
Visibility 3 mile(s)
Sky conditions partly cloudy
Weather Ice crystals Mist
Temperature -67 F (-55 C)
Windchill -106 F (-77 C)
{Source: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/NZSP.html }

May 1, 2015 8:59 pm

Isn’t it hilarious? Their own data clearly shows that the ice loss is regional. Then they ascribe to this regional effect a cause that is global.

Janice Moore
Reply to  Max Photon
May 2, 2015 6:55 am

LOLOLOL — And it’s not the FIRST miss that’s so funny….
Give — it — up, Climate Clowns.

Reply to  Max Photon
May 2, 2015 10:05 am

perfect analogy, a swing and a miss, but if you look carefully the guy is trying to complete this kick using his toe which, back in the day as they say, I was instructed would leave you with broken toes. Anyone who has had broken toes will assure you !: It is very hard to even walk and 2: when you try to walk it’s like coughing with broken ribs;3you will avoid the circumstances that brought that on for the rest of your life! We need the warmistas to connect with their toes often enough to make them more circumspect!

Reply to  Max Photon
May 2, 2015 3:21 pm

Our ninja needs to read up on the dummy variable.

Mooloo
Reply to  davidmhoffer
May 1, 2015 10:01 pm

+10
For an observation that is obvious, yet ignored.

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