How many climate deadlines and incontrovertible tipping points have been noisily proclaimed over the years, only to be quietly forgotten or shamelessly rescheduled, when the deadline passes uneventfully?
The Earth League, a group composed mostly of climate personalities nobody has never heard of, have just extended the green point of no return to 2040 – a whopping 25 years from today.
According to their “Earth Statement“;
2015 is a critical year for humanity. Our civilization has never faced such existential risks as those associated with global warming, biodiversity erosion and resource depletion. Our societies have never had such an opportunity to advance prosperity and eradicate poverty. … This includes additional public funding for mitigation and adaptation at a level at least comparable to current global ODA (around 135 billion USD p.a.).
Read more: http://earthstatement.org
OK, I kind of glossed over a lot of their statement, but I think I have captured the essentials. And that extended deadline for the new green point of no return?
… With current emissions trends, the remaining 1000 Gt CO2 [in their estimated global carbon budget] would be used up within the next 25 years. …
The rescheduled 2040 tipping point, intriguingly, ties in nicely with the Chinese non-commitment to consider reducing CO2 in 2030.
I haven’t spotted any mention of the “N” word on the Earth League website. For all the Earth League’s claims of being deeply concerned about the planet, nuclear power, which former NASA GIS Chairman James Hansen recently warned is the only credible route to decarbonising the global economy, doesn’t even seem to rate a mention.
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This reminds me of Zeno’s Dichotomy Paradox … in reverse.
not in reverse Max…you are always almost there in Zeno’s formulation it’s just that you never get there!
Personally, I prefer the Copenhagen formulation. You are both there and not there until you look to see if you are there. But that is neither here nor there.
Not even close enough for government work?
I am reminded of Muammar Gaddafi and his infamous, ever moving, “Line of Death” threat
SHRNFR – you mean Shrodinger!
My simplistic view of the Climate (science) Tipping Point
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CSTP.jpg
LOL ! Very well done !!!
… and a quite accurate visualization as well… 😉
Yes, excellent.
😎
But I can’t figure out if the …uh… animal is supposed to be those who know better but continue to hoodwink others or the hoodwinked.
Brilliant!!!!!
The mule could be the taxpayer and the climatastroligists are off to the left starting to unload their loot. Can’t help saying Bravo! & Encore! about this cartoon.
unfortunately that is just a dumb sterile mule. It should be a jackass (a donkey).
Well you see these folks have gotten so used to being world travelers, that the just aren’t ready to return yet; hence another quarter century of places yet to visit.
Just like any other religious cult, when the dead line passes for Armageddon… don’t rethink. reschedule
It would be nice if we could finally PASS the tipping point so we could stop hearing about it and get on with the adaptation phase
Perhaps they need to concentrate on a big cause of CO2.
http://www.termitedetector.com/emissions.cfm
I thought the group contributing the most CO2 to the ecosystem were microorganisms. Maybe we should start a campaign to reduce them, “Ban the Bacillus” or People against protozoans” or some such clever slogan.
Some 900 thousand different kinds of living insects are known, so better get started on some of the others. There’s a grant-bonanza out there, guys.
We will be tipping by then, but into cyclical cold. Most estimates put it in the 2020 to 2040 range for the next LIA type event. So far current weather is on track for that.
By 2040 it is much more likely that the entire man-made global warming meme will be mocked and derided as a low point for science.
Ah yes that would be sweet but you underestimate the power of belief my friend. They will keep believing that it will happen some day so we must act now. This glaciation is just a temporary thing. Once it’s over we’ll all boil and end up like Venus. 😉
mocked and derided by the same people pushing it down our throats now. The fun part will be referencing the internet as the permanent record and throwing it back at the fraudsters. That is, if we are still allowed to use the internet in 20 years.
No, if it cools, the warmistas will take credit for the cooling because of “all the things they’ve already done.” Then they will demand still more funding and more control over the decisions that free people should make for themselves, because after all they foresaw the problem and turned it around.
And FYI, by that time the internet will say only what the government wants it to say about this and other important topics.
2015 is a “critical year for humanity,” because during and after this year natural cooling of the earth’s climate will become sufficiently discernible for people to turn their back on CAGW for good, worldwide. Greens see 2015, and rightly, as their last chance to screw everybody.
November 2016 could be a tipping point in the US; but it depends who takes over the Whitehouse in 2017.
As an aside, the left in Canada is up in arms. In the several hundred pages of our federal budget that was tabled yesterday, there is not one word related to “global warming” or “climate change”. The media and the left are all over it but good for the Harper Government. They put money in for mass transit because it is a good thing to do, not because of our old saw CAGW. Goon on them.
The political debates for the election this October could get interesting.
But Ontario just joined Quebec (or is it the other way around?) and California in some carbon trading
scamdeal…“Goon on them”? A Freudian slip? I wish we could but that would be violent, illegal and it’s more fun to watch the show. Popcorn?
The campaigning for the UK general election in a couple of weeks’ time has seen no mention of any climate-related policies from any of the parties. Not even from the Greens, who now have delusions of grandeur that they can be considered a serious political party, and so have been holding forth about the National Health Service, austerity programmes, housing, taxation, etc. just like the rest of them.
There is only one “incontrovertible tipping point” around :
0c == 273.15K
And the temperature record shows we almost seem tightly damped above that phase change , but have repeatedly plunged below it .
Also by definition , public funding means resources taken under threat of prisons backed by guns .
There is no single reason why 2015 is critical, that is, what exactly we can do in 2015 that we won’t be able to do any more in 2016. The kind of phony urgency that used car dealers employ – your last chance, act now, no time to think twice.
“your last chance, act now, no time to think
twice.”I couldn’t find a job one summer in college so I tried working for commissions only at a car dealer. The sales training was to memorize the following line: “What kind of deal do I have to make you to get you to buy this car today?”
2015 will be your last best chance for a Landmark, Unprecedented, never before in the Anals (annals) of Man Kind, agreement on Destroying the global economy in the Paris COP a feel. Come 2016, it will be too late for a 2015 Paris agreement.
Will the lack of a true agreement be blamed on the Parisites
Maybe this is where Al Gore brings in Tipper to help “tip” things, as it were.
Dawt
Old chap, I thought I recalled something.
Per the inimitable and omniscient Wikipedia (which even I can edit . . . .)
“A longtime family friend of Al and Tipper Gore confirmed on June 1, 2010, that the Gores had sent out an e-mail to family friends announcing that they had made a mutual decision to separate” [Downloaded about 2137 Z/22 April 2015]
Maybe Tipper would oblige – but she might also ‘tip the wink’ that Al has tipped past the point of no return for Climastrophists.
Auto
Understand the existing data.
This can:
Prove Al Gore and the consensus are wrong.
Prove AGW is a mistake.
Prove the ‘war on coal’ is misguided.
Prove CO2 has no significant effect on climate.
Prove climate sensitivity (the increase in AGT due to doubling of CO2) is not significantly different from zero
Right here. Right now.
Only existing temperature and CO2 data are used. Fundamental understanding of math and its relation to the physical world are assumed.
The CO2 level (or some math function thereof) has been suspected of being a forcing. The fundamental math is that temperature changes with the time-integral of a net forcing (not the instantaneous value of the net forcing itself). For example, a bloc of metal over a burner heats up slowly, responding to the time-integral of the net forcing (heat from the burner minus the heat loss from convection and radiation). Add a blanket over the block (a ‘step change’ to the loss) and the block temperature increases to a new steady state temperature but the temperature increases slowly (in response to the time-integral).
Existing data includes temperature and CO2 determined from Vostok, Antarctica (or any other) ice cores for at least a full glacial or inter-glacial period. If CO2 is a forcing, the temperature should change as a transient following the start of CO2 level change instead of temperature and CO2 level going up and down in ‘lock step’ as has been determined from measurements and is widely reported.
Existing temperature and CO2 (Berner, 2001) assessments for the entire Phanerozoic eon (about 542 million years) are graphed at http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html
Pick any two points separated in time that have the same average global temperature (AGT) anomaly. The cumulative forcing is the time-integral of the forcing (or a function thereof) times a scale factor. Because the AGT at the beginning and end of the time period are the same and the time-integral of the forcing is not zero, the scale factor must be zero. As a consequence, the effect of the forcing is zero.
Granted that if the math function consists of an anomaly with respect to a ‘break-even’ CO2 level, a ‘break-even’ level could be determined to make the beginning and ending temperatures equal. Pick another time period with equal beginning and ending temperatures, but different from the first pick, and a different ‘break-even’ level might be calculated. Since the possibility of many different ‘break-even’ levels is ludicrous, the conclusion that CO2 has no significant effect on AGT prevails and something else is causing the temperature change.
A somewhat different approach to the proof showing that CO2 has no significant effect on climate and also identification of the two main factors that do (95% correlation since before 1900) are disclosed at http://agwunveiled.blogspot.com
Identification of the two main factors that do cause climate change are disclosed in a peer reviewed paper published in Energy and Environment, vol. 25, No. 8, 1455-1471 .
Understand that if you ignore formulas for a brief moment and realize that California, Brazil and Australia are all in a major drought phase with significant economic losses, and Boston received record snowfall in record time, which was also felt in GPD and personal freedoms, it’s fair for one to think something is happening. So maybe we fire all of the scientists and start fresh.
“….. it’s fair for one to think something is happening.”
Indeed. Normal climate and weather variability is ‘happening’. Get used to it!
Adaptation is in our genes… and our future!
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/04/22/latest-imagery-from-the-australian-permanent-drought/
Mr. Lneraho please look at the drought conditions in Australia.
Lneraho
Firing the current class of “climatrologists” and their propagandists around the world feeding off of the taxpayers they have stolen from would be a good start. Firing all of the scientists is not recommended, though many in cosmology and some parts of the physics professions might agree with you. As long as you only fired the people in cosmology and the physics industries that they disagreed with!
Australia is in a majors drought phase? I don’t think so. What are your data?
“California, Brazil and Australia are all in a major drought phase with significant economic losses, and Boston received record snowfall….which was also felt in GPD (?) and personal freedoms..” And if they’ve never had droughts before you’d be on to something, but alas, you’re not. What do “economic losses” and “personal freedoms” have to do with the severity of a drought? “x” amount of rain is “x” amount of rain. Because at this point in time more people affected simply because….there are more people, it’s the same drought.
DOH ! Its very rare that parts of Australia are NOT in drought.
Drought in Australia is, and has always been, part of the NATURAL climate.
But let me tell you.. where I am is very much NOT in drought.
Its SATURATED !!
Don’t include Australia mate, extreme weather is actually about the norm
“A land of droughts and flooding rains”
Western Queensland has a drought.
Western NSW does not have a drought (despite Tim Flannery saying otherwise).
Giles (WA – in the middle of nowhere) has had above average rain for some months.
And please don’t tell any of the poor folk living is Sydney that there is a drought. The poor sods are drenched.
All the major population water storages are at higher levels than at the same time last year.
So please stop watching the ABC, reading Fairfax newspapers and listening to the drivel that comes from there likes of Flannery.
Yeah it’s so dry here people living downstream of Manly dam (I didn’t know there was one) are at risk of flooding because the dam is…errrmmm…full of…errrmmm…water, y’know that stuff Flannery said would never happen again and why we need desal plants. Over 9000 calls to State Emergency Services since Monday. So far wettest April in 17 years for Sydney. I can tell you one thing, it was bitterly cold on Monday. I love it when nature simply won’t play ball with computer predictions.
Sorry Dan, but even being a skeptic on AGW, I cannot accept the Phanerozoic as representative of what has happened in the last several million years of climate regarding CO2 and any temperature effects.
Continents are in different locations, the Panama strait became an isthmus and thus most certainly altered ocean heat flows. Now cannot be related to climate from 500 MYa.
joel – The determination that CO2 has no significant effect on climate results from the computational mandate that temperature change is in response to the time-integral of a net forcing and not the instantaneous value of the net forcing itself.
How convenient. Just the correct amount of time to indoctrinate a whole generation through the education system. Watch as climate change becomes a compulsory and graded school subject.
Making our children resistant to the truth.
it already is – Next Generation Science Standards – scary stuff
Already is. Climate change is supposed to be part of Common Core teachings. More regarding Common Core origins and outlook here: http://www.invisibleserfscollar.com/
It’s a twist on an old Rodney Dangerfield joke.
Man goes to the doctor, doctor says “Bad news , get your affairs in order, you only have 6 months to live.”
Man says, “That’s terrible doc, and my money is all tied up for a year and I can’t even pay your bill.”
Doc thinks for a bit, then says, “Tell ya what. I’ll give you another 6 months.”
One could support: “I support the Earth Statement’s call on world leaders to deliver an ambitious, science-based and equitable outcome in Paris”…
…but the second part contradicts the first: “that sets us on a path to limit global warming to below 2 degrees”.
Sad that several of their references are incomplete, eg.:
– Mouginot, J., Rignot, E. and Scheuchl, B. (2014) Sustained increase in ice discharge from the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica , from 1973 to 2013, , 1576–1584. — which journal and what volume/issue? But at least we know the page numbers!
– Rahmstorf, Stefan and Dim Coumou (2011) Increase of extreme events in a warming world, 108 (44) 17905- 17909. — which journal?
There’s a lot of grey literature in the list too, even though they are claimed to be “scientific references”. That includes all but one of the references supporting “3. Zero-carbon society by 2050 is key to future prosperity.”, eg.:
– UNEP (2013) The Emissions Gap Report 2013. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Nairobi.
– Global risk and opportunity indicator (GROI) (2013), http://global-risk-indicator.net/
– Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI) and Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) (2014) Pathways to Deep Decarbonization. 2014 Report. SDSN, New York and Paris.
– Rogelj J, McCollum D & Smith S. (2014) What emission levels will comply with temperature limits? Chapter 2 in UNEP. The Emissions Gap Report, Nairobi, Kenya: UNEP.
– The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate (2014) Better Growth – Better Climate. The New Climate Economy Report, Washington D.C.
– GH, Brundtland [sic! — not the only reference with malformed author name — was it rushed out?], and World Commission on Environment and Development (1987) Our Common Future: Report of the World Commission On Environment and Development. Oxford University.
– GEA (2012), Global Energy Assessment – Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge UK the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
– IMF, (2014) Energy subsidy reform – lessons and implications, Report, Washington DC.
– Schellnhuber, HJ, et al. (2013) Turn down the heat: climate extremes, regional impacts, and the case for resilience – full report, Washington DC, World Bank, June.
…I could go on but I’m sure you get the picture. No wonder they’re hidden on a separate page to the main text.
Right. Almost all the legs of this scam are untenable. There is no evidence that any additional warmth would be bad, but there is a lot of evidence that overweight America can’t live without air conditioning at meat locker levels, so the too warm meme is an easy sell to at least some segments of the population.
Yippee! 25 more years of grants.
I don’t know who the Earth League are, but I know that the whole premise of this post is wrong and the headline completely misleading. The time by which the global carbon budget will be used up has been estimated at around 2040 since the concept was first raised. This group isn’t “extending” anything.
http://www.bcsea.org/2040-imperative
http://www.wri.org/blog/2013/09/world%E2%80%99s-carbon-budget-be-spent-three-decades
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/11/17/3593093/iea-report-carbon-budget-2040/
They stole your pitch Harry. Never mind I’m sure your colleagues will find another piece of crap to throw at the rest of us.
Flashman’s arguement boils down to – “We’ve been telling that lie for almost a year and a half now, so it MUST be true!!!”
nice use of the phrase, “since the concept was first raised”. Yeah, right, like no one ever, ever thought about this before September of 2013. You don’t even make any sense by your own pathetic standards.
Btw, although I’m sure everyone here knows by now, “Think Progress” was set up by John Podesta, who is still the Chairman in charge of the organization that runs it, which is the “Center for American Progress”, which he created. John Podesta is also the Chairman of the 2016 Hillary Clinton Presidential Campaign.
So yes, Think Progress is in verifiable fact, a full-time dedicated appendage of the Hillary for President 2016 Campaign. That’s who is pushing this.
(and people still wonder how politics got involved in this issue)
What I’m saying isn’t a difficult concept, except apparently around here.
Whether the concept of the carbon budget is valid or not, or promoted by John Podesta or for that matter Karl Marx or Genghis Khan is irrelevant. The point is that the date by which its proponents say it will be used up has not shifted, as claimed in the post. It’s important to understand something before ranting about it.
Do you get it now?
appendage of the Hillary for President 2016 Campaign. That’s who is pushing this.
=============
oh yes! yet another politician telling us to cut our carbon footprint so they can continue to live high on the hog. I’m fully prepared to reduce my carbon footprint to that of Gore, Obama or Clinton. But of course cutting your carbon footprint is always for “the other guy”.
Funny how “lead by example” has escaped the ruling class in America. Now its “do as I say, not as I do”. You’all take a smaller slice of the pie, so I can take a bigger one.
There’s no budget to bust.
Five hundred ppmv of the vital plant food CO2 is better for living things than 400 ppmv, 600 better still and 800 the beginning of the best, but we probably won’t get there. Doubling the presently historically low, low level of this essential trace gas would be a good thing.
Princeton physicist Will Happer says over 1000 ppmv would be close to ideal (and much else worth listening to for scientific illiterates like the Hairy Flasher):
http://motls.blogspot.com/2012/05/will-happer-co2-friend-or-foe.html
Someone on another blog was touting the nonsense that when we hit 700 ppm atmospheric CO2 humans will have to walk around with oxygen tanks. Do high schools not teach basic science any more? I cannot figure out how we became so science illiterate.
The 1000 pG C number as a “carbon budget” is simply arbitrary; pulled out someone’s butt because it sounds impressive. It sounds good to have a whole number that can easily be placed in a short sound bite. Why not just 1 exaG C? It’s the same thing, but 1 of anything just doesn’t sound as impressive to the ignorant masses.
In the larger context of Earth’s annual carbon cycle of transfers between natural sinks and natural sources, the annual addition of human’s fossil-fuel sourced CO2 is trivial. Other impacts from man, such a deforestation, regional water pollution/depletion, and overfishing are far more devastating than any supposed Temp rise from additional CO2, which is beneficial to enhance growing seasons, and reducing heating costs. With enough cheap energy, we can push seawater desal operations to economic feasibility, and reduce deforestation (esp in in Africa where trees are harvested to make charcoal for cooking), and increase crop food and farmed fisheries production to reduce the pressure on the oceans.
The reality is by 2040, pCO2 may be around 455 ppm, and the only major impact of that will be a greener biosphere. Meanwhile global temperatures may actually be lower than today due to a cyclical cooling period.
Love the one exaG idea. Not scary enough, obviously.
Politics run on propaganda; valid science [runs on] results, runs on Reproducible research.
Which do you favor Flashman?
From Harry’s Thinkprogress link: “In the central scenario, the entire carbon budget allowed under a 2°C climate trajectory is consumed by 2040,..”
The main problem with what you put out Harry is the real world temperatures are lower than what is projected in the numerous scenarios. So the 2040 date is wrong. The 2C temperature is wrong. So the entire CO2 did it claim is wrong.
Don’t quite understand the numbers here about the global carbon budget being used up, Flashy.
My understanding is that Scotland alone has over 200 years worth of coal if you want to spend the cash to extract it, and under the North Sea there are gazillions of tonnes that could be turned into usable gas if the will was there.
Not the same as 25 more years.
The premise of the budget is that we can only burn a certain amount if we want to avoid CAGW. That’s a complex and uncertain idea and I’m not going to argue for it. But that’s what it means.
Sir Harry
There is no such thing as a ‘carbon budget’ and the promises of CAGW are baseless. Not dodgy, baseless.
The ‘carbon budget’ idea is based on an expected relationship between CO2 and temperature that is unsupported by the available evidence. That being the case there is nothing ‘C’ to base AGW upon.
While I appreciate the enthusiasm of the true believers, there is simply no reason to be alarmed about the recent gentle rise in global temperature nor the past 18 years of no rise.
As fund-raising scams go, it is not even a very good one. That is why the chaotic and desperate moves to use elite negotiations to bind countries to fund a ‘climate mitigation fund’ run by a bureaucracy that is answerable to no one. Funding without accountability is cool!
Every teenager’s dream! It’s been fun, boys and girls, but it is time to grow up.
Wow, Basically unprecedented.. a left wing totalitarian socialist alarmist….
….. worried about overspending a budget !!!
+1
SHF:
Oh b*gger! So no more BBQs! Do the Aussies know?
But who the f*ck decided on a Carbon Budget? What we need is a BS budget.
Hey, leave my BBQ alone… 🙂
The BS budget was all used up within the first 2 years of the Clinton administration.
Not so much a tipping point, more a vanishing point.
Depends on your perspective, (sorry, I just got done with a nasty descriptive geometry solution, and this one was just too easy)…
Reblogged this on RubinoWorld and commented:
The apocalypse has been postponed 25 years! Whew!
A compilation of the various tipping points and postponed doom days would be useful for rhetorical purposes. We have a consensus: it’s bad. How bad? Can’t agree. Has one been put together? –AGF
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/timblair/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/fourteen_years_of_last_chances/
Tim Blair is an hilarious Aussie journalist/blogger. Enjoy
We’re in more danger from the global financial and banking system than from CO2 emissions. Two more years to go to the next meltdown …
.
Speaking for myself, I’d appreciate an extra 6 degrees C about now, then I can turn the furnace down, and stop using so much propane …
So then, we are to believe that all of humanity is going to die in a burning, stinking, smoldering pile of flesh if we don’t all cough up millions upon millions of public dollars and hand it over freely to those whom believe they know what is best for the lot of us?
Sounds like pure socialism. Green has become a religion for these people. A dangerous cult of lies it is.
“… if we don’t cough up millions
uponof millions of public dollars …” FIFYpure socialism?? Oxymoron!
Success!
The lack of accountability comes from several elements.
1. The lengthy time frame, dealing with decades to at times a century
2. The lack of authentically reconciling previous forecasts to observations
3. The constant moving of the goal posts, using the same strategies but just moving it forward
4. Add in the fact that appropriate adjustments based on realities from observations are not getting dialed into newly projected tipping points(same story and ending but new deadlines).
The reason that operational meteorologists are more skeptical than any other scientists is that we see this clearly. We use weather models(different than climate models in many ways). However, we must reconcile reality with models every day. The forecast/projection using the updated guidance based on fresher data must also be given tremendous weighting.
An operational meteorologist will have made thousands of forecast updates in a 20 year period and be wrong hundreds of times, know it and acknowledge it………..hopefully, hundreds of times. Climate scientists/modelers with 50+ year time frames, don’t need to reconcile/update in timely fashion……they are always right. How many times have we heard a climate scientist admit to being wrong and changing their projection?
Climate models are much different than weather models in many ways. However, they have similarities regarding their value which should be appreciated by users of both of these products.
Detail needed to forecast specific weather features in a chaotic atmosphere is not possible with skill beyond 2 weeks.
The same chaotic atmosphere also has many feed backs, forcing mechanisms, interactions and unknowns on a longer time scale that make projecting the climate, just as uncertain.
We still can’t even say what the effect of increasing water vapor and clouds might be with confidence. What about the dozens of interactions/processes, including things like the explosive vegetative growth from atmospheric fertilization and increased global evapotranspiration?
A meteorologist that insisted that it would rain tomorrow, then when it didn’t rain, changed it to the day after tomorrow, then the day after that,at some point, would lose credibility and hopefully, either realize that his/her models are biased towards forecasting rains that are not happening…………….or find another job where they can display better skill!
How long will it take for the current crop of climate scientists/modelers to get this?
Mike Maguire – refreshing!
refreshing, earnest, accountable.
Que será, será! Whatever Will Be, Will Be ( the future’s not our’s to see – but we stay on )
Thanks – Hans
I urge everyone to read this article from Fox News: http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2015/04/22/happy-earth-day-2015-earth-is-doing-just-fine-thank/?intcmp=latestnews
Try to refrain from reading the comments below that article. You’ll lose brain cells, guaranteed.
Lol – true.
All excellent points in the article. The weather/climate and conditions for the last 3 decades, have likely been the best for life on this planet, since at least the Medieval Warm period around 1,000 years ago.
Considering the higher CO2 levels now, it’s probably even better.
At least Hillary Clinton doesn’t believe in tipping.
[Ouch. Accurate though. .mod]
Cows maybe…………..