Via The GWPF Global Warming Pause Comes Of Age
The Earth’s temperature has “plateaued” and there has been no global warming for at least the last 18 years, says Dr. John Christy, professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center (ESSC) at the University of Alabama/Huntsville. “That’s basically a fact. There’s not much to comment on,” Christy said when CNSNews.com asked him to remark on the lack of global warming for nearly two decades as of October 1st. –Barbara Hollingsworth, CBS News, 30 September 2014
Figure 1. RSS monthly global mean lower-troposphere temperature anomalies (dark blue) and trend (thick bright blue line), October 1996 to August 2014, showing no trend for 17 years 11 months.
More on the “The pause” here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/04/global-temperature-update-no-global-warming-for-17-years-11-months
What will the Warming Pause do next? Get a job? Go on a gap year? Maybe go to college and rack up some proper student debt. Who knows, but it’s worth celebrating the good news that the planet’s temperatures are not accelerating to thermageddon. –Josh, Bishop Hill 1 October 2014
The scientific community would come down on me in no uncertain terms if I said the world had cooled from 1998. OK it has but it is only 7 years of data and it isn’t statistically significant. –Phil Jones, University of East Anglia 5 July 2005
Bottom line: the ‘no upward trend’ has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get worried. -Phil Jones, University of East Anglia 7 May 2009
2014 will probably be in the top five warmest, but at the moment it will probably not turn out to be warmer than 2010. It is impossible for it to beat 2010 by a statistically significant margin, even if we define that as only one standard deviation above the decadal mean. Even if 2014 does beat 2010 it will only be by a statistically insignificant margin and well within the inter-annual error bars. In all probability 2014 will continue the global surface temperature standstill in a statistically perfect manner. When will the global surface annual temperature start to rise out of the error bars of the past 18 years? –David Whitehouse, The Global Warming Policy Forum, 28 September 2014
It’s fair to say that this pause is something of an embarrassment to many in the climate research community, since their computer models failed to indicate that any such thing could happen. Just how long the temperature pause must last before it would falsify the more catastrophic versions of man-made climate change obviously remains an open question for many researchers. For the time being, most are betting that it will get real hot real fast when the hiatus ends. –Ronald Bailey, Reason Online, 9 September 2014
Former United Kingdom environment secretary Owen Paterson launched an attack against the “wicked green blob,” saying policies to stop global warming might do more harm than good. “There has not been a temperature increase now for probably 18 years, some people say 26 years,” Paterson told an audience at the Conservative party conference over weekend. “So the pause is old enough to vote, the pause is old enough to join the army, the pause is old enough to pay its taxes.” –Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, 29 September 2014
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Time to sell Global warming and short it. I Got an insideer tip from the sun.
BTW, this is off topic but I have been seeing lots of Hail storms in 2014 across the globe. I wonder how solar panels hold up to falling Hail.
Hail degrades solar panels more than just rain and dust does, that’s for sure.
it bounces right off them…..literally 🙂
its got to wreak havoc on them I would suspect.
Depends on the size of the hailstones.
It depends if they are global warming hailstones. If so then they definitely cause damage. However if they are carbon neutral hailstones they cause no damage at all and in fact can be beneficial according to my model.
“most are betting that it will get real hot real fast when the hiatus ends”
Of course they are, their phoney baloney jobs depend on it.
I for one will take that bet! How much does he want to wager of his OWN MONEY?
heap big warmy!!!
The pause bothers me. Not for the reason it bother’s the usual suspects, but because I have a hard time believing the temperature could remain that static for so long.
I can’t believe that the temperature would be adjusted to hide an increase, and that has led me to wonder if it might in fact be chilling, only slightly, and the data is being frantically adjusted to hide this.
For the best reasons of course.because if people knew it had chilled slightly, they might be inclined to think GW was false, and not realize we are still in terrible, terrible danger of being flooded and cooked once the natural temperature rise resumes. sarc/
The official adjusters (Gavin, et al.) still show an increase from 1998, just slower. 2002, 2005, 2010, and 2014 have all been adjusted up to near 1998 levels by extrapolating from areas where we have no data. The thermageddonite party line is that natural variation has slowed, but not stopped the warming. When the pendulum swings the other way, look out!
I’m going by memory on the years listed above.
“When the pendulum swings the other way, look out! ”
Currently the ‘pendulum’ is strong enough to cancel out that anthropogenic element of global warming. From c1970 to c2005 the ‘pendulum’ was swinging the other way but the climate models wrongly assumed that all the increase, rather than about half of it, was anthropogenic.
Take a look at a longer timeline for the temperature data and it shows a downward trend.
I attribute this to thermal inertia of the oceans. The oceans have been heating overall since the Dalton Minimum because the solar maximums have been relatively high since that time, up until our recent solar maximum. Once this positive force [solar irradiance] is removed from the object [oceans] thermal inertia causes a plateau before a decrease.
I know a lot of people will disagree with this because solar irradiance only varies by 0.1-0.2% and therefore can’t account for the changes in temperature of the ocean and atmosphere. However, UV light varies by up to 10% and UV light penetrates water much deeper than visible light does. Also, these direct measurements of the sun have never been taken while the sun was in a slump like that during the Maunder or Dalton Minimum. If the next solar cycle is as inactive as some are predicting then the solar influence theory will soon be put to the test.
the temp is not static.
If you choose to do a LINEAR regression, then the slop of that line will be close to zero.
the temperature is not static. the slope of the regression line is flatish.
If you choose a linear regression.. which is not the most obvious or defensible choice.
Agreed: However, the CAGW crowd use these metrics precisely to show a trend, upwards. Using their metric, illustrates how wrong they are.
“slope”. I thought for a moment Mosher had introduced a new technical term.
If we use a normal temperature scale, we get a chart that isn’t very scary:
http://suyts.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/image_thumb265.png?w=636&h=294
dbstealy: Your chart appears to be using Fahrenheit degrees above zero. The point is well made, though I would prefer Kelvin degrees above zero.
The temperature of the “pause” is static precisely because that zero slope is the criterion used to determine the length of the pause. The zero slope is the independent variable, the length of the pause is the dependent variable. In other words, if you extend the baseline one more month into the past, then the slope becomes positive so there is no pause over 18 years & one month. Capeesh?
Yes, and if you extend it far enough into the past (millions of years) the slope can be made to be negative.
The environmental activists don’t care and will ignore the data. Their real goal is reversing the industrial revolution by limiting energy production and consumption. The means is restricting CO2 emissions in a world where most fear nuclear power.
How can we possibly save enough natural resources for the elites and ultrarich, who will hopefully survive their efforts to depopulate the earth down to 500 million people? We are so selfish not to protect the earth for them and their progeny.
P D O 🌁
Does that mean ‘pretty damned obvious – it’s the clouds’?
“Bottom line: the ‘no upward trend’ has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get worried.” -Phil Jones, University of East Anglia 7 May 2009
Before we get worried? Lays pretty clear that their motivation is more focused on preserving funding than it is on saving the Earth.
Good catch and tells the tale. The last thing the global warmers want is an end to the warming.
I asked a watermelon friend “Wouldn’t it be great if it stopped warming?” They just couldn’t comprehend the question, much less offer a response. …and they are the smart ones? Too funny!
Well in their true fashion they could hardly have said: ” But Eric, haven’t you heard, it stopped warming 18 years ago”.
They can’t miss the gravy train. It’s the last one and it’s about to leave the station.
Can someone ask Phil if he is now officially worried.
Fabulous idea…I’d love to hear his spin-Meistersinger self squirm in response.
But of course he’d tell you it’s really warming.. ANDY, if you don’t believe me, ask Dr? Mann………
Oh Mann!……:-)
This is why “they” have to keep adjusting current temperatures up and older temperatures down…. to hide that it’s basically paused for 18 years.
“Pause”? “Hiatus”? – I thought these terms meant a break or interval.
In what? In normal climate change? Or in a politically-constructed expectation of catastrophic warming that has not eventuated.
Pause and Hiatus are PR constructions.
I think the word you’re looking for is ‘stopped’. No PR in that one.
Not paused, not stopped, not even plateaued.
Peaked.
Enjoy the view from this position, because from now on this roller coaster is heading downward.
And we have #50!
EBOLA Is now caused by CLIMATE CHANGE!!!
http://www.newsweek.com/climate-change-ebola-outbreak-globalization-infectious-disease-264163?utm_content=Ebola_and_Climate_change&utm_campaign=Ebola_and_Climate_change&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social
When the phrase “global warming” is defined as in this article, the global warming in a specified interval in time has multiple numerical values. A consequence is for non-contradiction to be negated. Non-contradiction is one of the classical laws of thought.
Pause or plateau???
It’s a duck billed plateaupause.
Magnificent!
+1, for sure.
Auto
Way to go, Jimbo!
Heck, why be stingy? +1.5!
Yes, it laid an egg.
GROAN 😉
You win the Groaner Award
Nice one
How about a F*ck Phil Plateaupause
The Brits were convinced we Aussies were having them on when the first platypus made its way to the UK. They just didn’t believe it possible and we have been gently taking the piss out of them at every opportunity since. Fortunately they are good sports and just give it back in kind. A life lesson for the CAGWarmistas?
PS We just did it again but this time it actually was a joke and they fell for it!
We sent them Lewndowsky!
Nyuk, Nyuk, Nyuk
Thought it was a TAXPAYER-billed plateaupause?
Or a minipause that is giving all the warmists hot flashes…
OK, OK, OK … So we now must describe the Taxpayer-Billed PlateauPause
Certainly, it must first present the taxpayer-bill, but is it fiend or foul, mammal or avian?
Yes, it must always moose the data, and hide the decline for leather or purse, richer or poorer, in sickness and health care.
Surely it can duck the hard questions, while feathering its nest for the next quarter’s funding.
Yeah, and it must have two good ayes, or it could never pass the three-way peer-review exam.
Yet it carries its tale forward while pushing for progress for the next annual migration backwards.
Which is in front? The model of decorum, or the statistical means justifying the end?
Earth to MSM.
It ain’t a pause. Global warming has stopped.
And it has left us with no plausible explanation for stopping. Nor has it given us a clue as to whether the next non-zero trend direction will be warming or cooling.
We’ll just have to wait and see. Statistics is NOT predictive, of anything except how surprised we will be when we see what happens next.
Do you mean no plausible explanation or no pausible explanation for the pause.
I distinctly remember saying there is no pause. It’s a stop, and I said there is no plausible explanation for the stop. Only used the word “pause” once, to say it isn’t one of those. So keep your paws offen my posts !
No paws on your pause, said Pa.
Found this
http://www.climate4you.com/images/AllCompared%20GlobalMonthlyTempSince1979.gif
The five most quoted temperature anomalies all on one graph
This is clearly a modified chart. The data has been up-trended. MWhite, are you a troll or do you just post troll-ish information?
It is modified to start before 1997.
No up-trending. It shows stable temperatures at least since 2003. The graph is from http://www.climate4you.com which is driven by Dr. Humlum. The smoothing and averaging is explained there. Visit the site, it has many interesting plots (and Humlum is certainly not pro AGW).
Anyone else notice a six year period in this data? What causes that? (Sorry, I am new to this).
Interesting that the “platuepause” (see above) is now longer than the increase during the satellite era.
Ok. So you found it. Where did you find it? 8<)
Excellent graph! – But if others cannot also find it, your help is tantalizing, but not effective.
OT slightly, but I got top billing on the editorial page of our 250,000 circulation local neighborhood bi-weekly paper where i dismantle the “weather is getting more extreme” nonsense. John Abrams of University of St Thomas fame and first order Alarmist frequently contributes and wrote a letter this issue. Ha!! My letter spans top of page, his is down below in the regular space. I live in what is likely the bluest county in US. So should be interesting when my liberal neighbors (whom I like by and large) see me aftr reading this. I was quite civil and showed the empirical data with source but in my closing paragraph I said I was ashamed of our president for promoting the misinformation that, ‘ The weather is getting more extreme’… Oh the horror!!😊🌀
You’re a brave man. You present facts. But to the liberal crowd facts don’t matter. To them global warming is real, regardless of facts. And 2+2 =5 if Al Gore says so.
2 + 2 = 5, for large values of 2.
“John Abrams of University of St Thomas fame . . .”
I think you mean John Abraham.
In a few more years the so-called “pause” will have married and settled down to raise a family.
The pitter patter of little pauselets?
L’dOL to that one!
This attributes the article to CBS News when in fact the author writes for CNS News.
I noticed that too. Strange…
Easily dismissed as a typo.
Hey RFK, Jr. Choke on this, buddy.
How low do you have to dial ECS in the models to get an 18year flat line?
After all the years of medical themed shows on TV, everyone should know by now that flat-lining equates to being dead. And an 18 yr flat line should be, “she’s not only merely dead, she’s really most sincerely dead”.
Or in the words of my favorite TV doctor…
“He’s dead, Jim.”
That parrot isn’t dead. it is pining for the fjords.
Turns out your friend here is only mostly dead. There’s a pretty big difference between being mostly dead and all dead…
Sic transit calefactio mundi.
Mankind is still responsible for more than 50% of that no warming in 18 years though, right? Just want to make sure I understand that I’m still considered a climate felon for life and no stretch of stable or falling temperatures is long enough to absolve us of our collective CO2 crimes agains nature.
Couldn’t resist sending my poem once again – having altered 17 to 18…
LIFE IS A GAS!
Life is a gas – CO2 –
(And oxygen, of course)
But to say that it drives the climate
Puts proverbial cart before horse.
What Al Gore said in his lecture,
Unbacked by observable proof,
Turned out to be pure conjecture –
An inconvenient truth…
The ice-core samples from Vostok
Plotting temperature change over time
Revealed that in fact CO2 change
Lags hundreds of years behind.
Greenland was green when the Vikings
Settled a millennium ago;
While Frost Fairs were held on the Thames
Six centuries later, or so.
The IPCC used a Mann-made stick
To flatten this bumpy graph
To prove to us all – Q.E.D. –
That this life-giving gas ‘ain’t no larf!’
They say, thanks to human endeavour,
Our carbon footprints expand
Playing all hell with the weather
And flooding both ocean and land.
Once upon a time, CO2
Was a colourless, non-toxic gas;
Now: ”an anthropogenic emission”
On a mission to fry us, en masse.
The bottom line is that this substance,
In solid or gaseous form,
Will turn the world into a greenhouse
Globally warmer than warm!
Mass production and consumption
Took off at the end of the war.
Despite Kyoto, COPs and Cap’n trade
CO2 levels continue to soar.
Fossil fuels, factories and flying machines
All add their bit to a graph
That rises each year relentlessly
When it ought to be falling by half.
The temperature curve, however,
Just will not play the game:
Rise, fall, rise for a century
Now 18 years the same!
Elaborate computer models
Are the IPCC’s crystal ball
None of which have predicted
The recent no-warming-at-all!
Climate Science is now a religion
Where AGW is PC
And the MSM censure everything
Bar the Gospel of IPCC.
So worship the great god Consensus,
Believe what it tells you is Truth;
Or else you’ll be branded Denier
And your views will be taken as proof!
High Priest Strong said at Rio –
Leaving Greens to fill in the gaps –
”Isn’t the only hope for the planet
That the industrialised nations collapse?”
Now that’s hardly a secret agenda;
The Club of Rome endorsed it too:
”All we need is the right major crisis…”
And the scapegoat is – you know who!
So now parties of all creeds and colours
Kowtow to this climate-smart code:
Nature should be a museum
Back in pre-industrial mode.
The Germans have ‘Energiewende’,
Swopping nuclear power for coal;
The Brits import timber from Canada
To spruce up their CO2 goal.
The Green Lobby looks to the UN
To tax us all off the map.
Survivors will catch the Royal Virus,
Prince Philip – jolly old chap!
Meanwhile, in the real world, the Future
Has billions of new mouths to feed.
So ‘power plants’ must be provided
To supply them with all that they need.
Electricity and food for all
Means carbon dioxide, you see,
In South America, Africa, Asia…
Rather than just you and me.
Now 120 parts per million –
The parts that we’ve added, let’s say –
Plus a period of gentle warming
Have made the Earth greener today
Yet ask any market gardener
What the Greenhouse Effect means to them
And they’ll tell you that king-sized veggies
Crave 1200 ppm.
The more CO2, then, the better;
Photosynthesis thrives on the stuff.
So frack up both shale gas and oil,
Of which there is more than enough!
And let us pray Global Warming
Doesn’t take a turn for the worse
As its cousin, Global Cooling,
Is definitely more of a curse.
For the Little Ice Age was no picnic:
No sunspots, no food, no fun;
And the sun’s present spotless condition
Suggests a new cold spell has begun.
So the IPCC have a problem if –
Despite the hot air they exhale –
Their cheeks and the climate start turning
A whiter shade of pale.
For Climate Change is the default,
The null-hypothetical state.
On those that say Man overrides this
The burden of proof is great.
For the climate has always been changing;
Change is here to stay.
As King Canute showed on the seashore,
Man cannot keep Nature at bay!
So, historians, when you review our time
And our hysterical CO2 Show,
Lay not the blame on us poor clowns
For your landscape of ice and snow…
Kevin Benn
Kev you have a very long but good poem there.
The pause is 18? Well that’s inconvenient! 😉
“Bottom line: the ‘no upward trend’ has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get worried. ”
What me worry?
Bottom line: the ‘no upward trend’ has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get worried. -Phil Jones, University of East Anglia 7 May 2009
Worried? Why “worried”?
Funding dry up.
Worried their conjecture is junk.
The Whack-A-Mole game will continue until we find a way to deal with the root causes and provide a solution.
I’m speaking of the TRUE “climate change refugees” here, namely the thousands upon thousands of researchers/professors/administrators, in all of the colleges and governmental positions, who’s entire livelihood depend on furthering the research on this subject.
If empirical evidence, easily understood and indisputable were introduced tomorrow, within a month the ranks of the unemployed would swell, families destroyed, homes foreclosed on, cars repossessed, pensions eliminated…
If you’re 45, wife and kids at home, happily employed as Mole in the great game, what happens to you? Other scientific fields are likely ill-suited to your expertise, and even those that are could not possible handle the influx.
My answer is to do what we did for banks, which was essentially to say “Ok…you’ve all gotten yourself in a bad way, so we’ll help you out JUST THIS ONE time…”
We repurpose the funding going into the research and we buy them out, period. Nice one-time severance package, their taken care of, and yes, I know it cuts against every grain to reward them, but how else could we possible stop the insanity?…and my bet without running the numbers is that we could offer a buyout package to them for less than is being spent on staying the present course.
Only when this issue gets solved will they stop. They’re fighting for their careers, their families, and their financial security, and they’ll continue fighting as long as they’re able, as would the rest of us, right?
Jim
For some reason, the solution RFK Jr. wanted for us, strikes me as appropriate to them.
At least I’m not advocating 350.org’s solution.
Excellent insight and summary. . . .
The problem, of course, is that Dear Leader is making this his legacy…since every other option for that has been taken off the table by his own actions.
That means that most of the liberal party will still do everything possible to promote it.
They have little choice in the matter, it’s pretty much the only issue that remains untainted by his actions.
Can’t run on foreign policy, screwed that up seven ways to Sunday…same with economy, jobs, exit from Iraq, domestic security…the list goes on.
But Climate Change can still hook votes. It’s like proposing a raise for teachers…you pretty much guarantee every teacher/union will vote for you. With Climate Change, push the alarmist points, and everyone on that train is going to support it, even if they know it to be nothing but faux science.
The ALARMIST will suffer some-timer-ism followed with mental-pause with hot flashes. There is medication that can help.
The symptoms are selective forgetfulness and bouts of hot headedness for no apparent reason other than someone saying have a nice day.
-Michael