The Week That Was: 2014-07-19 (July 19, 2014) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers.[or relies on TV news] Thomas Jefferson [H/t Tim Ball] Number of the Week: +0.69 ºC or +1.24 ºF
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
ICCC-9: The Ninth International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC-9) sponsored by the Heartland Institute continues to garner attention. Roy Spencer, co-developer of the method of measuring atmospheric temperatures via satellites, the most comprehensive temperature record in existence, wrote that it was the most energetic of the Heartland conferences he has attended over the years.
“Clearly, we skeptics feel our point of view is being vindicated, that (1) warming is relatively benign, (2) warming is only partly human-caused, (3) the benefits of more CO2 in the atmosphere appear to greatly outweigh the risks, and (4) there’s little that can be done about reducing CO2 emission anyway, until we have new energy technologies sufficient to meet global energy demand.” He wonders what the size of the conference would have been if it had been government sponsored, and states that the skeptics cannot be ignored any longer. The alarmists pretend that natural causes are cancelling out their projected warming, but ignore that much of 20th century warming may have had natural causes.
On his web site, Alan Carlin posted his remarks upon acceptance of the Climate Science Whistleblower Award. Carlin tried to fight from within the EPA that finding the greenhouse gas emissions, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), endangers human health and welfare (Endangerment Finding). He thought it was based on bad science. He was promptly muzzled. So much for the most transparent Administration ever. This highly questionable finding provides the EPA with the justification to severely regulate power plants, expanding its powers without Congressional action. Carlin states: So what started out as a scientific issue concerning a proposed Endangerment Finding has now escalated into a major legal and even Constitutional issue concerning Presidential powers. The President roams the country calling us “flat-earthers” and science-deniers. Perhaps it is time to characterize his behavior as illegal and even dictatorial.
Already steps towards necessary litigation to stop the EPA regulations are being taken. For example, attorney Lawrence Kogan of the Institute for Trade, Standards, and Sustainable Development informed TWTW that one of the important questions is did the EPA meet the requirements under the Information Quality Act? The litigation that resulted in recent Supreme Court decision permitting EPA regulation of power plants that are regulated under different statutes did not address this issue. Kogan has filed Freedom of Information Act request filed to the EPA addressing this issue see http://nebula.wsimg.com/e155ee64b03ea37237297cdbab7a2854?AccessKeyId=39A2DC689E4CA87C906D&disposition=0&alloworigin=1
For the conference, see links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – ICCC-9
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NIPCC v. IPCC: On Climate Etc. Judith Curry had an interesting post on a review of the sources used by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) and the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The review by members of the faculty of University of West-Hungary compares the earlier Climate Change Reconsidered reports by NIPCC with the Fourth Assessment report by IPCC. It finds that the journals referenced are largely the same, but with an important difference – “journals dealing with paleo-issues are more important for the contrarian [NIPCC] report.”
This distinction is critical. The earth’s history shows that climate change is normal and natural, and can be quite abrupt. The NIPCC reports include this. The IPCC reports focus on the later part of the 20th century and into the 21st, as if climate change is something new and unique. If we are to have an understanding of climate change, we must understand the natural causes that have been ongoing for millennia. From a historical standpoint, recent warming is not unprecedented or dangerous, and well within natural variation. We cannot separate the component caused by increased CO2, unless we understand natural variation. The post and the paper are a small step in the right direction. Curry quotes from the paper’s conclusion: But when we take the contrarian arguments seriously, there is a chance to bring together the differing views and knowledge claims of the disputing ‘interpretive communities’. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – NIPCC.
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NOAA and AMS: The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the American Meteorological Society (AMS) have released a joint report “State of the Climate in 2013.” Unfortunately, as with many such publications, the alarmist tone in the press releases and the summary overwhelm the solid science in the research. For example: Greenhouse gas emissions, sea levels, global temperatures and super storms all are trending upward, NOAA said. The first and second points ae unquestionable, the next two are refutable.
As discussed in the July 12 TWTW, there is no acceleration in historic sea level trends. There is has been no warming trend for over a decade and no increasing trend in tropical or extra-tropical storms. In the report, John Christy has an excellent discussion on atmospheric temperature trends. Along with Roy Spencer, he developed the method of measuring atmospheric temperatures via satellites. Christy states: “The long-term global trend based on both radiosondes and satellites (starting in 1979) is +0.13 ±0.02ºC per decade.” He finds the trend to be statistically significant. The trend in the critical latitudes between 20º S and 20º N is +0.069 ºC per decade. . [SEPP note: These positive trends quoted may be artifacts, caused by the inclusion of the 1998 Super-El Nino and the 2001-02 temperature jump’]
Based ont the data there is not much to be alarmed about and the warming trend has stopped. Why the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration focuses on land surface records, such as NASA/GISS and NOAA/NCDC which have been questionably manipulated, is known only to them.
The special supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society features a wrecked vehicle on the front cover. Could this be an illustration of the state of scientific rigor at NOAA and the Society? See links under Lowering Standards and Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
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Real Losses Caused by Weather: In January, Munich RE, the world’s largest re-insurance company, issued its report for 2013. The report focused on the heavy losses due to floods in southern and eastern Germany and neighboring states in June, the most insured losses from hail in Germany in July, and most severe human losses caused by typhoon Haiyan, which hit the southern Philippines on November 7.
The report further sates: Globally, losses from natural catastrophes in 2013 were somewhat more moderate: the direct overall losses of around US$ 125bn and insured losses of around US$ 31bn remained below the average figures of the past ten years (US$ 184bn and US$ 56bn). Regrettably, in a total of 880 natural catastrophes (average of the past ten years: 790), more than 20,000 people were killed. This meant that the death toll was higher than in 2012, but significantly below the average of the past ten years (106,000). One should realize that the average for the past 10 years is skewed somewhat by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami that left about 230,000 dead.
Further, Munich RE has issued its report for the first six months of 2014, finding that the worst losses are due to the harsh winter, not warming. During the first half of the year, 2700 people died as a result of natural catastrophes, which was much lower than is normal during the first six months of a year (10-year average: 53,000). The reports of Munich RE emphasize the importance of adapting to extreme weather events.
On his blog site, Roger Pielke, Jr. used the Munich RE reports to calculate “Global Weather-Related Disaster Losses as a Proportion of Global GDP: 1990-2014.” His calculations do not justify the alarmism accompanying the NOAA and AMS reports. See links under Changing Weather.
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Disclaimer: Perhaps by accident, the Global Warming Policy Foundation web site linked to a press release by Taylor Consulting stating that another Texas shale formation may have more recoverable oil than Eagle Ford and North Dakota’s Bakken combined. Since the formation has not been developed, the claim is speculative. What was more interesting was the disclaimer in the press release, even though release was not an open investment solicitation.
Notice Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: This news release contains forward-looking information within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, including statements that include the words “believes,” “expects,” “anticipate” or similar expressions. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. In addition, description of anyone’s past success, either financial or strategic, is no guarantee of success. This news release speaks as of the date first set forth above and the Company assumes no responsibility to update the information included herein for events occurring after the date hereof.
Perhaps government-funded climate studies and reports on “investments” in schemes to stop climate change should have similar disclaimers. See link under Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
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New York Times: John Christy, discussed above, was the subject of an article in the New York Times. Unfortunately, the article contained some less than tasteful comments by scientists who disagree with Christy. To his credit, Kerry Emanuel somewhat apologized on Roger Pielke Jr.’s blog for his comment. One comment is completely unjustified: “John Christy has made a scientific career out of being wrong,” one prominent climate scientist, Benjamin D. Santer of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, wrote in one 2008 email. “He’s not even a third-rate scientist.”
Benjamin Santer was the person who altered key conclusions in the in the Summary of Policymakers of the IPCC Second Assessment Report (AR-2) [1996], after final review to support the phrase the “balance of evidence” shows humans are causing the warming. The AR-2 led to the Kyoto Protocol and a waste of over $100 Billion. Last year, Santer bragged about his role in a Congressional hearing and insisted he discovered the so-called “hot spot” over the tropics. In 2007, Christy co-authored an article along with David Douglass and Fred Singer pointing out errors in Santer’s work and the inability to find the “hot spot” – still missing, though theoretically it should be there if the tropics are warming.
Perhaps, someday even the New York Times will learn that if scientists use slander to defend their position against scientists who use data to question it, the position may be very weak, if not wrong. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Seeking a Common Ground.
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Tax Repeal! After significant political maneuvering, the government of Australia has repealed the despised carbon tax. It is the first developed country to do so. It remains to be seen what bearing this will have on other countries with the tax or similar taxes. But, those who have worked diligently to repeal such an unneeded, and economically destructive energy tax are to be congratulated.
In a significant editing error, one of the articles in the Wall Street Journal (not linked) covering the repeal called the carbon dioxide tax environmentally friendly. The enormous body of research in the environmental benefits of enhanced atmospheric carbon dioxide contradicts such claims.. See Articles #2 and #3, links under Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes, and, especially, Social Benefits of Carbon.
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Number of the Week: +0.69 ºC or +1.24 ºF. As discussed in the above section on NOAA, since satellite measurements started the temperature trend is +0.069 ºC per decade between 20º S and 20º N. Although extrapolation is risky, such a trend would result in an increase in temperatures of +0.69 ºC or +1.24 ºF between 20º S and 20º N by 2113. Such a temperature increase is hardly cause for alarm and does not justify draconian measures to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. These data-based estimates are far less than the “business of usual” model-based estimates in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR-5) and the 2014 US National Climate Assessment
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ARTICLES:
For the numbered articles below, please see this week’s TWTW at: www.sepp.org. The articles are at the end of the pdf.
1. The Corruption of Peer Review Is Harming Scientific Credibility
Dubious studies on the danger of hurricane names may be laughable. But bad science can cause bad policy.
By Hank Cambell, WSJ, Jul 13, 2014 [H/t William Readdy]
2. Tony Abbott’s Leadership Lesson
By Mary Kissel, WSJ, Jul 18, 2014
3. Australia’s Carbon Tax Message
Tony Abbott shows that climate absolutists have a problem: democracy.
Editorial, WSJ, Jul 17, 2014
http://online.wsj.com/articles/australias-carbon-tax-message-1405616207
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NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
Lawson’s climate-sceptic group hit by charity status row
By Roger Harrabin, BBC News, Jul 16, 2014 [H/t Bishop Hill]
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-28321641
[SEPP Comment: Is Greenpeace, with its war on GM foods, a candidate?]
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Exploring controversy: NIPCC versus IPCC
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Jul 17, 2014
http://judithcurry.com/2014/07/17/exploring-controversy-nipcc-versus-ipcc/
Link to paper: Reviewing the climate change reviewers: Exploring controversy through report references and citations
By Ferenc Jankó, Norbert Móricz, and Judit Papp Vancsó, Geoforum, Sep 2014
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016718514001389
Challenging the Orthodoxy – ICCC-9
Audio Video Link to the 9th International Conference on Climate Change
Sponsored by the Heartland Institute
http://climateconference.heartland.org/
My Remarks on New Proposed EPA Power Plant Regulations at ICCC9
By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, Jul 18, 2014
http://www.carlineconomics.com/archives/1643
Heartland’s 9th International Conference on Climate Change: A Skepticism Tipping Point?
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Jul 17, 2014
Heartland Institute conference shows the growing power of climate realism
By Ron Arnold, Washington Examiner, Jul 15, 2014
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Though Scorned by Colleagues, a Climate-Change Skeptic Is Unbowed
By Michael Wines, NYT, Jul 15, 2014 [H/t Howard Hayden]
Global warming is not settled science: Guest opinion
By Daniel Nebert, MD, Oregon Live, Jul 12, 2014 [H/t Gordon Fulks]
http://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2014/07/global_warming_is_not_settled.html#incart_river
German Geologist Sebastian Lüning Slams IPCC Climate Science: “A Lot Of The Claims Are Just Not True” –
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jul 16, 2014
Intellectual and Practical Foolishness: The Precautionary Principle
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Jul 18, 2014
[SEPP Comment: Exploring the difference between theoretical risks and real deaths.]
Macro, Meso, and Micro Climates: The Importance of Trees in Urban Climates
By Tim Ball, WUWT, Jul 16, 2014
There is a reason why climatology evolved as a major part of Physical Geography. Intellectually it requires a generalist discipline, but specialization dominates today’s dissected, fractionalized, academic world. A more archaic term for geography is chorology. It is defined as “the study of causal relations between geographical phenomena occurring within a particular region.”
On Global Warming, Follow the Money
By John Hinderaker, Power Line, Jul 13, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2014/07/on-global-warming-follow-the-money.php
[SEPP Comment: A plug for SEPP and its exposure of Federal funding of climate fears.]
Defending the Orthodoxy
Obama bulking up local defenses against climate change impact
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Jul 16, 2014
Obama: Climate change is ‘direct threat’ to US
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Jul 16, 2014
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/212476-obama-climate-change-is-direct-threat-to-us
Obama Wants Localities to Prepare for Climate Change
The Obama administration is taking action to help state and local governments prepare for climate change and natural disasters.
By Daniel Vock, Governing, Jul 16, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.governing.com/topics/transportation-infrastructure/gov-obama-resiliency-local.html
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Climate change sceptics ‘must be heard on the BBC’
BBC shouldn’t “squeeze out” climate change sceptics just because scientists say they’re wrong, says editor of Today programme
By Anita Singh, Telegraph, UK, Jul 14, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Evidence and Belief
By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, Jul 18, 2014
http://scientific-alliance.org/scientific-alliance-newsletter/evidence-and-belief
As the reports make clear, the study was part funded by an organic farming charity (the Sheepdrove Trust) but we should not be too quick to question its credibility on that basis alone.
[SEPP Comment: The source of funding is not sufficient reason to dismiss or accept any scientific report.]
Twelve Urban Myths of Climate Change
By Lord Christopher Monckton, ACSP, Jul 12, 2014
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2014/07/twelve-urban-myths-of-climate-change.html
Influencing Climate Policy on the Back of a Lame Horse
By Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels, CATO, Jul 11, 2014
http://www.cato.org/blog/influencing-climate-policy-back-lame-horse
The little green book
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jul 8, 2014
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/7/8/the-little-green-book.html
[SEPP Comment: A brief review of James Delingpole’s new book.]
Today’s Climate Embarrassment
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Jul 14, 2014
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2014/07/todays-climate-embarrassment-4.php#comments
W Hudson Bay mark-recapture studies of polar bears were invalid, says peer-reviewed study
By Susan Crockfrod, Polar Bear Science, Jul 15, 2014
Social Benefits of Carbon
Growth Response of Grassland Species to Elevated C02 When Water Stressed
By Staff Writers, CO2 Science & SPPI, Jul 15, 2014
Link to report: http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/grassland_response.pdf
Elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 tend to reduce the area of open stomatal pore space on leaf surfaces, thus reducing plant stomatal conductance. This phenomenon, in turn, effectively reduces the amount of water lost to the atmosphere via transpiration.
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Even The U.N. Climate Group Says No Need To Worry
Editorial, IBD, Jul 11, 2014 [H/t William Readdy]
Seeking a Common Ground
Why scientists should talk to philosophers
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Jul 16, 2014
http://judithcurry.com/2014/07/16/why-scientists-should-talk-to-philosophers/
Motivated by policy makers’ needs for quick answers, climate science prematurely went into a ‘calculate and shut up’ mode, with anyone questioning the basic assumptions, climate models, or preferred policies are ostracized by the scientific community (see this recent profile of ‘outcast’ John Christy in the NYTimes). The only way we are going to dig out of this rut is through some fundamental questioning. Here’s to hoping that philosophers and the approaches of philosophy can help kick climate scientists out of their faux comfort zone of consensus and ‘settled science’.
Communicating climate science reconsidered
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Jul 13, 2014
http://judithcurry.com/2014/07/13/communicating-climate-science-reconsidered/
‘Scientist’: the evolving story of a word
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Jul 15, 014
http://judithcurry.com/2014/07/15/scientist-the-evolving-story-of-a-word/
On academic bullying
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. July 18, 2014
http://judithcurry.com/2014/07/18/on-academic-bullying/
Guest Post: Kerry Emanuel Clarifies a Recent Quote in the NYT
By Kerry Emanuel, Roger Pielke Jr’s Blog, Jul 17, 2014
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2014/07/guest-post-kerry-emanuel-clarifies.html
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by NIPCC
For a full list of articles see www.NIPCCreport.org
A High-Arctic Feedback to Climate Warming (
Reference: Lupascu, M., Welker, J.M., Seibt, U., Maseyk, K., Xu, X. and Czimczik, C.I. 2014. High Arctic wetting reduces permafrost carbon feedbacks to climate warming. Nature Climate Change 4: 51-55.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2014/jul/8jul2014a1.html
CMIP5 Models Simulating Southeast Pacific Stratocumulus Clouds
Reference: Lin, J.-L., Qian, T. and Shinoda, T. 2014. Stratocumulus clouds in Southeaster Pacific simulated by eight CMIP5-CFMIP global climate models. Journal of Climate 27: 3000-3022.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2014/jul/8jul2014a3.html
Sadly, these findings represent but one group of global climate model failures to adequately “predict the past,” which adds ever more reasons to not trust the projections of future climate by even the best climate models in use today.
Earth’s Coral Reefs: Probing Their Past to Foretell Their Future
Reference: Pandolfi, J.M. and Kiessling, W. 2014. Gaining insights from past reefs to inform understanding of coral reef response to global climate change. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 7: 52-58.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2014/jul/8jul2014a4.html
Earth’s corals are well equipped to deal with climate change; but it is a far different story when it comes to direct attacks on their immediate environs.
Predicting the Unpredictable? … Some Things Just Can’t Be Done
Reference: Dinezio, P. 2014. A high bar for decadal forecasts of El Niño. Nature 507: 437-439.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2014/jul/15jul2014a1.html
Moving from CMIP3 to CMIP5: How are the Models Progressing?
Reference: Bellenger, H., Guilyardi, E., Leloup, J., Lengaigne, M. and Vialard, J. 2014. ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5. Climate Dynamics 42: 1999-2018.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2014/jul/16jul2014a3.html
In light of the above, Bellenger et al. conclude that “significant model development work is still needed to correctly represent the basic ENSO characteristics (amplitude, evolution, timescale, seasonal phase lock …) and the fundamental underlying processes such as the atmospheric jerkiness and surface fluxes feedbacks.”
Models v. Observations
Quote of the Week – NOAA: ‘However, we think it’s likely that the atmosphere will get on board soon’
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jul 14, 2014
[SEPP Comment: NOAA’s El Niño forecasting has problems.]
Global Climate Models Fail to Simulate Key Dust Characteristics
African dust plays a key role in cloud formation, hurricanes and other global climate phenomena but models can’t characterize it well
By Staff Writers, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Jul 14, 2014 [H/t WUWT]
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/global-climate-models-fail-simulate-key-dust-characteristics
“However, I think we showed (in this study) that the level of inaccuracy was just way beyond what anyone assumed it to be,” said Evan.
[SEPP Comment: More reason why not to believe the 95% certainty in the IPCC science as expressed in the Summary for Policymakers.]
New paper finds a ‘striking mismatch’ between data & models for the present & last interglacial
By Staff Writer, The Hockey Schtick, Jul 17, 2014
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/new-paper-finds-striking-mismatch.html
Link to paper: Temperature trends during the Present and Last Interglacial periods – a multi-model-data comparison
By Bakker, et al, Quaternary Science Reviews, Sep 1, 2014
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379114002686
[SEPP Comment: The mismatch is not a surprise.]
Measurement Issues
Satellites reveal possible catastrophic flooding months in advance
By Staff Writers, Irvine CA (SPX) Jul 14, 2014
[SEPP Comment: Provided heavy rains come.]
Was the Hottest Day Ever in Australia not in a desert, but in far south Albany?!
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jul 18, 2014
Changing Weather
Munich Re Report: Top 2014 Weather Catastrophe Losses Due To Cold-Related Events, “Record Harsh Winter”! –
By P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jul 15, 2014
Link to report press release: Comparatively few major natural catastrophe losses in first half-year
By Staff Writers, Munich RE, Jul 19, 2014
Updated: Global Weather Disasters and Global GDP
By Roger Pielke Jr, His Blog, Jul 16, 2014
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/updated-global-weather-disasters-and.html
Overall picture of natural catastrophes in 2013 dominated by weather extremes in Europe and Supertyphoon Haiyan
Press Release by Staff Writers, Munich RE, Jan 7, 2014
Updated Normalized Disaster Losses in Australia: 1966-2013
By Roger Pielke Jr., His Blog, Jul 15, 2014
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2014/07/updated-normalized-disaster-losses-in.html
Polar Vortex summer version prelude to brutal winter and potential major energy issues
By Joseph D’Aleo, ICECAP, Jul 12, 2014
[SEPP Comment: A winter to remember?]
Polar Vortices Everywhere! Central Russia Hit By Mid Summer “Freak…Abnormal Snowstorm…Snowdrifts”!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jul 14, 2014
El Niño 2014: Climate Alarmists Disappointed
By Steve Davidson, Communities Digital News, Jul 11, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.commdiginews.com/news-2/el-nino-2014-climate-alarmists-disappointed-21377/
Texas Drought on the Decline
By Sierra Rayne, American Thinker, Jul 16, 2014
http://americanthinker.com/2014/07/texas_drought_on_the_decline.html
NYT Failing to Explain California’s Drought Accurately
By Sierra Rayne, American Thinker, Jul 13, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Changing Seas
A Drop in the Ocean
Scientist pioneered tracer to reveal hidden ocean flows
By David Pacchioli, Oceanus, Jul 18, 2014
http://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/a-drop-in-the-ocean
2014 Global SST Not Looking Like a Record…So Far
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Jul 18, 2014
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/07/2014-global-sst-not-looking-like-a-record-so-far/
More Heat about Ocean Heat – another nail in the AGW coffin
By Anthony Cox, CSP, Jul 15, 2014
http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2014/07/more-heat-about-ocean-heat-another-nail.html
Comprehensive EIKE Review Of Sea Level Rise Shows TOPEX/POSEIDON/JASON Results Are Inflated, Faulty
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jul 9, 2014
Latest NOAA mean sea level trend data through 2013 confirms lack of sea level rise acceleration
By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Jul 16, 2014
Changing Earth
Rainwater discovered at new depths
By Staff Writers, Southampton, UK (SPX), Jul 16, 2014
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Rainwater_discovered_at_new_depths_999.html
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
NASA’s Aquarius Returns Global Maps of Soil Moisture
By Maria-Jose Vinas, Washington DC (SPX), Jul 11, 2014
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/NASAs_Aquarius_Returns_Global_Maps_of_Soil_Moisture_999.html
Un-Science or Non-Science?
Claim: Australia drying caused by greenhouse gases
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jul 13, 2014
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/13/claim-australia-drying-caused-by-greenhouse-gases/
Precipitation may be key in bird adaptation to climate change
By Staff Writers, Corvallis OR (SPX), Jul 14, 2014
Their model found that models including precipitation were most successful at predicting bird population trends.
Lowering Standards
The Warming State of the Climate in 2013
By Andrew Revkin, NYT, Jul 17, 2014
Link to: State of the Climate in 2013, Highlights
By Blunden, J., and D. S. Arndt, Eds., American Meteorological Society, July 2014 Released With NOAA
http://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/state-climate-2013-highlights
“425 authors, 57 countries, a 24 year tradition”
NOAA: Climate change is getting worse
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Jul 14, 2014
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/212577-noaa-climate-change-is-getting-worse
Corruption Of Academic Journals For Profit and Climate Change Propaganda
By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Jul 16, 2014
http://drtimball.com/2014/corruption-of-academic-journals-for-profit-and-climate-change-propaganda/
The BBC and balance
The broadcaster bowing to pressure from green activists
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Jul 9, 2014
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/the-bbc-and-balance.aspx
Don’t silence Lord Lawson: We can’t leave climate change policy to the scientists
By Ryan Bourne, City A.M. Jul 14, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
A Climate of Censorship at The Age
By John McLean, Quadrant, Jul 10, 2014
http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2010/03/bob-carter-john-mclean/
How Media Bias Censors the Debate on Climate Change
By Liz Peek, The Fiscal Times, Jul 16, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2014/07/16/How-Media-Bias-Censors-Debate-Climate-Change
North Carolina Outlaws Alarmist Planning Advice -Restricts SLR planning input to maximum timeframe of 30 years
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jul 12, 2014
[SEPP Comment: Climate scientists losing credibility!]
Stealth bombs? Killer plagues? Don’t panic, just follow the money
Politicians and scientists have a vested interest in propagating panic: it’s the one superbug there’s no known antidote for
By Simon Jenkins, The Guardian, UK, Jul 3, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/03/what-next-from-david-cameron-factory-of-fear
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Report: Climate changing more rapidly than at any point on record
By Sid Perkins, Science Mag, Jul 17, 2014
http://news.sciencemag.org/climate/2014/07/report-climate-changing-more-rapidly-any-point-record
NOAA: Climate change is getting worse
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Jul 14, 2014
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/212577-noaa-climate-change-is-getting-worse
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Groups push for climate science in classrooms
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Jul 11, 2104
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/211989-groups-push-for-climate-science-in-classrooms
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Big Insurance Getting Set To Use Junk Science To Gouge The Poor…”Climate Liability” Insurance
By P Gosslin, No Tricks Zone, Jul 13, 2014
Climate change sceptics ‘must be heard on the BBC’
BBC shouldn’t “squeeze out” climate change sceptics just because scientists say they’re wrong, says editor of Today programme
By Anita Singh, Telegraph, UK, Jul 14, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Questioning European Green
Winds of Vanity
By Bjorn Lomborg, Project Syndicate, Jul 16, 2014
[SEPP Comment: Politicians can be forever delusional about costs of their pet plans.]
Britain ‘faces blackouts’ unless green balance improves, leading engineer warns
By Tom Bawden, Independent, UK, Jul 13, 0214
Expert commission
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Jul 12, 2014
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2014/7/12/expert-commission.html
[SEPP Comment: Flights of fantasy about providing electricity in Scotland.]
Proposals to fight climate change will trigger ‘astronomical costs’, campaigners warn
By John Ingram, Express, UK, Jul 15, 2014
Green Jobs
Australia’s renewable energy industry grinds to a halt
By Peter Hannan, Sidney Morning News, Jul 16, 2014
The Political Games Continue
Tom Steyer And The Profits Of Climate Doom
Editorial, IBD, Jul 16, 2014
http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/071614-709068-how-climate-change-changed-tom-steyer.htm
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
A small but significant battle win in the war against the AGW hoax.
By Geoff Brown, CSP, Jul 19, 2014
Australia’s Tony Abbott has made history by abolishing the hated carbon tax
By Tom Switzer, Spectator, UK, Jul 17, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Finally! Carbon Tax Gone – Australia gets rid of a price on carbon
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jul 17, 2014
Carbon Tax Torn Asunder Down Under
By Walter Russell Mead, American Interest, Jul 17, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.the-american-interest.com/blog/2014/07/17/carbon-tax-torn-asunder-down-under/
EPA and other Regulators on the March
The EPA doesn’t consider our economy
By Harry C. Alford, The Hill, Jul 17, 2014
http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/energy-environment/212512-the-epa-doesnt-consider-our-economy
Asthma Reduction: The Joker Card of EPA’s CO2 Power Grab (Part 2)
By James Rust, Master Resource, Jul 10, 2014
http://www.masterresource.org/2014/07/asthma-epa-co2-power-grab/#more-31069
Link to White House Report: “The Health Impacts of Climate Change On Americans,”
EPA’s CO2 Power Grab: Economic Consequences (Part 3)
By James Rust, Master Resource, Jul 11, 2014
http://www.masterresource.org/2014/07/epas-co2-power-grab-economic-consequences-part-3/
Message to EPA—“You Have Done Enough” Let Them Know Your Thoughts
By James H. Rust, Somewhat Reasonable, Jul 17, 2014
http://blog.heartland.org/2014/07/message-to-epa-you-have-done-enough-let-them-know-your-thoughts/
Delegating the Delegation, or Outsourcing Regulation
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Jul 16, 2014
EPA, Pentagon vehicle freeze could jeopardize wildfire assistance
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Jul 11, 2014
[SEPP Comment: Current Pentagon thinking: regulate first, think about consequences to public safety later – if at all.]
Senators join in EPA ‘secret science’ charge
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Jul 17, 2014
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/212550-senators-join-in-epa-secret-science-charge
EPA sidesteps sequestration review in letter to science panel
Jean Chemnick, E&E reporter, Jul 15, 2014
http://www.eenews.net/eenewspm/2014/07/15/stories/1060002908
Link to letter from EPA to Science Advisory Board:
EPA has no business garnishing wages without due process: Examiner Editorial
Editorial, Washington Examiner, Jul 12, 2014
EPA seeks to restrict Pebble Mine project to protect salmon habitat
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Jul 18, 2014
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/212647-epa-proposes-limits-on-mine-to-protect-salmon
Murkowski blasts EPA on Pebble Mine restrictions
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Jul 18, 2014
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/212675-murkowski-blasts-epa-on-pebble-mine-restrictions
Energy Issues – Non-US
Renewable Energy Growth in Perspective
By Roger Andres, Energy Matters, Jul 14, 2014 [H/t Climate Depot]
http://euanmearns.com/renewable-energy-growth-in-perspective/
Energy-Wasting Internet…IEA Describes “Range Of Policy Options” For Curbing Wasted Power
By P. Gosslin, No Tricks Zone, Jul 10, 2014
Link to report: More Data, Less Energy: Making Network Standby More Efficient in Billions of Connected Devices, –
By Staff Writers, IEA, Jul 2, 2014
http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/MoreData_LessEnergy.pdf
Gas is greenest in the short term
By Bjorn Lomborg, The Australian, Jul 12, 2014
[SEPP Comment: May be behind a paywall $$$]
Energy Issues — US
Save The Grid
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Jul 18, 2014
https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2014/07/18/save-the-grid/
[SEPP Comment: Probably few people are more destructive than well-intentioned, ignorant politicians out to save the world.]
Study: States can handle EPA power plant rules
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Jul 14, 2014
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/212165-study-states-can-handle-epa-power-plant-rules
Link to the report: EPA’s Clean Power Plan: States’ Tools for Reducing Costs and Increasing Benefits to Consumers
By Paul Hibbard, Andrea Okie, Susan Tierney, Analysis Group, jUl 2014
[SEPP Comment: Minimizes costs, particularly the unreliability of solar and wind and assumes highly questionable EPA benefits are real!]
Natural gas boom hasn’t made US energy secure, warns IEA chief
By Timothy Cama, IEA, Jul 14, 2014
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/212126-iea-chief-us-may-not-be-energy-secure
[SEPP Comment: More nonsense from the IEA chief. Considers energy security as a subset of climate stability. “Action must be taken now to stop making things worse … in terms of [greenhouse gas] emissions and to build up the resilience of the energy system to limit the impact and costs of climate change,” she said.]
Coal Stockpiles Fall to Lowest Level Since 2006
By Aaron Larson, Power News, Jul 14, 2014
http://www.powermag.com/coal-stockpiles-fall-to-lowest-level-since-2006/
Link to report: Quarterly Coal Report January – March 2014
By Staff Writers, EIA, June eo14
http://www.eia.gov/coal/production/quarterly/pdf/qcr.pdf
[SEPP Comment: The report illustrates a resilience of coal-fired power plants over gas. The potential generation from coal can be stored on-site. Natural gas is stored elsewhere and can be subject to other demand limitations. Of course, solar and wind cannot be feasibly stored.]
Washington’s Control of Energy
Hunt for oil and gas to begin off East Coast
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Jul 18, 2014
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/212686-feds-greenlight-air-gun-testing-off-east-coast
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
TAYO: Texas Shale Boom Could Be Nation’s Biggest Ever
Press Release, By Staff Writers, TAYO, in WSJ, Jul 16, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-20140716-905430.html
[SEPP Comment: May be behind a paywall $$$]
U.S. shale threatens French chemical makers
By Staff Writers, Rubber News.com, Jul 14, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
Return of King Coal?
Despite rising emission, India’s coal use soars
By Cuckoo Paul, Forbes, India, Jul 11, 2014 [H/t GWPF]
http://forbesindia.com/article/checkin/despite-rising-emission-indias-coal-use-soars/38164/1
Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences
Google project maps natural gas leaks under city streets
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Jul 16, 2014
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Solar Thermal Electric Generation: Still Not Cheap, Not Green?
By Marlo Lewis, Global Warming.org, Jul 14, 2014
http://www.globalwarming.org/2014/07/14/solar-thermal-electric-generation-still-not-cheap-not-green/
Offshore wind to bring $3.4 billion to British economy
By Daniel J. Graeber, London (UPI), Jul 16, 2013
http://www.winddaily.com/reports/Offshore_wind_to_bring_34_billion_to_British_economy_999.html
[SEPP Comment: At what costs to the consumer?]
The Voice of Dead Eagles at Shiloh IV (Part III)
By Jim Wiegand, Master Resource, Jul 18, 2014
http://www.masterresource.org/2014/07/voice-dead-eagles-iii/#more-31223
New study uses blizzard to measure wind turbine airflow
By Staff Writers, Minneapolis MN (SPX), Jul 14, 2014
http://www.winddaily.com/reports/New_study_uses_blizzard_to_measure_wind_turbine_airflow_999.html
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Electric Vehicle Update
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Jul 15, 2014
https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2014/07/15/electric-vehicle-update-3/
Natural Gas Vehicles 2014: Caution, not Government Subsidies
By Allen Brooks, Master Resource, Jul 8, 2014
http://www.masterresource.org/2014/07/natural-gas-versus-oil-transportation/#more-31052
The law of unintended consequences in action: Imagine replacing all CO2 emissions with H2O emissions
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Jul 14, 2014
Environmental Industry
Energy-Starved ‘Planet Of The Apes’ What Greens Want
Editorial, IBD, Jul 14, 2014 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Greenpeace Showcases its Anti-Human Side
By Paul Driessen, Townhall, Jul 15, 2014
The Greens’ Bid to Control Agriculture
By Ron Boswell, Quadrant, Jul 14, 2014
http://quadrant.org.au/magazine/2014/07-08/greens-audacious-bid-control-agriculture/
Primary industries are under threat from an alliance of environmental zealots and corporations buckling in the face of orchestrated protests, PR campaigns and legal harassment. The stakes are huge: effective control of worldwide agriculture
The ‘War on Meat’ Will Make the ‘War on Coal’ Look Tame
By Ronald Bailey, Reason.com, Jul 11, 2014 [H/t Climate Depot]
http://reason.com/blog/2014/07/11/the-war-on-meat-will-make-the-war-on-coa
Other Scientific News
Apollo And Modern America’s Can’t-Do Spirit
Editorial, IBD, Jul 18, 2014
Moonwalker Buzz Aldrin says U.S. taking giant leap backward
By Phillip Swarts, Washington Times, Jul 13, 2014
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/jul/13/astronaut-buzz-aldrin-presses-need-for-space-explo/
Other News that May Be of Interest
Are Healthy Buildings Built On Lies?
By Josh Bloom, Science 2.0, Jul 14, 2014
http://www.science20.com/pfired_but_still_kicking/are_healthy_buildings_built_on_lies-140516
The Liberating Theory of Resourceship
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Jul 15, 2014
http://www.masterresource.org/2014/07/liberating-resourceship/#more-31113
################################################
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Fewer bees or just more Bee-S?
By Staff Writers, ACSH, Jul 15, 2014
http://acsh.org/2014/07/fewer-bees-just-bee-s/
Wine corks may owe quality to gene activity
By Discovery that distinguishes superior stoppers could help reverse global downturn
By Niskan Akpan, Science News, Jul 16, 2014 [H/t WUWT]
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/wine-corks-may-owe-quality-gene-activity
###################################################
Since I suffer from PVST (Polar Vortex Stress Disorder) I went looking around for early start El Niño’s that failed to remain there for the normal ENSO season. There is the one in 1993 and that following winter was very brutal in the eastern half of the US. Then there was the cold record breaking July of 2009…
Summer Polar Vortex vs. 2009 Year Without a Summer? – Jesse Ferrell Weather Blog
http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/summer-polar-vortex-vs-2009-year-without-a-summer/30431014
And that following winter was cold.
https://sites.google.com/site/whythe2009winterissocold/
So Joe D’Aleo is probably safe on with his winter forecast.
Best to get prepared, but remember…
The EPA just outlawed wood stoves for country folks. Only extremely expensive ones that the poor cannot afford can still be found.
3. Australia’s Carbon Tax Message
Tony Abbott shows that climate absolutists have a problem: democracy.
Which just means extremist greens will double-down on lies, propaganda and special pleading (and ABC political lefty-incestuousness ) to try and pervert the public debate all the more.
And given their current ‘leadership’ cohort (like, fricken all of them!) I’ve no doubt they will do just that, which may finally fully marginalize them and lead to accelerating political and electoral collapse.
/popcorn
The ‘War on Meat’ Will Make the ‘War on Coal’ Look Tame
By Ronald Bailey, Reason.com, Jul 11, 2014 [H/t Climate Depot]
Oh man, this is a complete non-starter for “saving the planet”, and not just for the usual reasons.
Set up a controlled experiment in which one random cohort is placed in a sealed atmosphere chamber and fed a meat diet for two weeks and another random cohort other is fed only veggies for two weeks.
Now measure the CO2 and methane emission produced by each cohort and chart and compare the results.
If you’ve ever eaten a large plate of veggies and seen (and heard … and smelled) the results of this the next day, you can guess where this is going.
Now, image 7.3 billion people on planet earth suddenly doing it, all at once, in perpetuity.
Yup … heat death … bleached corals … the end of all life on earth …
/popcorn
Maybe when people start dropping-like-flies from terminal Carbonoxyic-trombone-buttistis, the vegans will finally realize there’s a downside to their (odious) logic … or maybe that is their cunning objective all along? … OK, I’m off to the shops to buy some eucalyptus oil deodorizer pressure-packs before the End-of-Daise arrives.
Anthony Watts
What Dr. Willie Soon thinking about TSI? Maybe of Article is worth?
http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/49735731
“John Christy has made a scientific career out of being wrong,” one prominent climate scientist, Benjamin D. Santer of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, wrote in one 2008 email. “He’s not even a third-rate scientist.”
What does that make Ben Santer – a fifth rate scientist (if he is lucky)? After all what has Santer ever got right!
ConfusedPhoton says:
After all what has Santer ever got right!
Just so, last Xmass he brought me a bike….I wanted a Barbie doll !!!
I think that George Carlin puts Big Green’s overblown pronouncements into perspective.
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7W33HRc1A6c
Can be seen that the effect of sun in the atmosphere is enhanced due to changes in the UV and GCR over longer periods of time. UV and GCR ionize the atmosphere in different areas. UV is stronger in the equatorial zone, and GCR at the poles. The decrease in UV and a simultaneous increase in the GCR circulation changes in the atmosphere (stratospheric waves).
http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/webform/query.cgi?startday=01&startmonth=06&startyear=2000&starttime=00%3A00&endday=01&endmonth=07&endyear=2014&endtime=00%3A00&resolution=Automatic+choice&picture=on
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/sunspot.gif
What do you think, how many centuries will still, take this discussion to the panel, which does not bring any concrete results. ? We’ll be destroyed before, but that in this way we figure out the real and true cause of climate change on our and on other planets. Whether on this planet there is an organization, institute, research institution, a rich and generous man, who can not “forgive yourself a mistake,” you will listen to someone anonymous who can provide guidance and true path leading to a complete solution to the enigma of all time? So far I’ve been trying to animate many factors, but in vain.
I know one man who has such results certainly will not mislead anyone or misleading result, but this man wants to express with a contractual obligation. And he needs to pay for something with so many billions of dollars are spent in vain.
Does anyone read this and do the same arouses such people to react to such a statement.
Sooner or later, this foreshadowed the solution to this puzzle will come out into the open and many will be ashamed of you at the time did not support the request. Perhaps because of this ignorance can be vain, lost hundreds of thousands of people and trillions of damage. THINK!
UV radiation depends on the activity spots (not on their number)?
http://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2003/10/28/rsga
Worth seeing south polar vortex at an altitude of 17 km.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/07/25/0600Z/wind/isobaric/70hPa/orthographic=-12.99,-135.80,318
your all wrong the CSIRO said the there computer models are on the mark .http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-models-on-the-mark-australianled-research-finds-20140720-zuuoe.html. hmmmmmmmmmm
Get ready for alarmist headlines about wildfires in the West, even though acreage burned is the lowest it’s been in at least a decade, less than 1/3 of average.
http://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/nfn.htm
Us see blockade of the southern polar vortex in the region of Australia, at an altitude of 26 000 and 20 000 m.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp50anim.shtml
Note the waves, which induces the lock in the stratosphere.
Oh, I meant to say ICCC-9 was really good.
This one really is something you have to see. On the recent cold winters.
http://m.ustream.tv/recorded/49739795?rmalang=en_US
Ren, bud, you’re not helping my PVSD at all.
Polar Vortex Stress Disorder (PVSD)
not PVST… guess because of lack of sleep, been working hard on house putting in more insulation, house wrap and new siding… between flooding rains.
Just a couple more years and maybe everyone will finally admit global warming has stopped. This article caused a stir at CWG…
http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/06/20/global-warming-of-the-earths-surface-has-decelerated-viewpoint/
“The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers.” [or relies on TV news] Thomas Jefferson
I guess I have it right, then, according to Tommy Jeff. I boycott all news but read as much as I can.
When my friends are yakking they say “What do you think about such and such?”.
“Who is that?”. They laugh. “You haven’t heard of such and such? What rock have you been living under?”
99% of the stuff the TV “news” covers is just irrelevant junk. I know. I used to work for them. Since I quit, I never watch. I’ve been much happier without “news”. If it’s important, I’ll hear about it.
Meanwhile, another Joe is saying there are more July cold shots coming.
Heat to Dominate Rockies in Amplified Pattern, But Cool Air Masses Will Still Win Out
http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/lundberg/heat-to-dominat/30830667
…The effect of that strong feature rolling by the northern Rockies will be to beat down the upper-level ridge over the central and southern Rockies. Some cooling is certain over the northern Rockies between Wednesday and Thursday in western Montana and Idaho, and between Thursday and Friday over eastern Montana and Wyoming. Farther south, though, the heat will continue over eastern Colorado on south and into the Southwest Deserts.
The downstream trough merely deepens during the second half of the week. Between now and then, the heights are not terribly high, so while the atmosphere is gradually becoming more moist, there is also the problem with the air aloft initially not being warm enough to handle all that moisture, and that’s leading to areas of cloudiness as well as some mainly afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm activity.
The thunderstorms are more prolific right now over parts of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas on the eastern side of a weak upper-level low. It’s pulling moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as well as the southwest Atlantic, and it’s resulting in slow-moving and heavy thunderstorms.
With the trough deepening in the East Wednesday and Thursday, it will drive a pretty strong cold front across the Midwest tomorrow night, then through the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley later Wednesday, then across the Northeast into the mid-Atlantic Wednesday night and Thursday morning. As it does, look for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms along the way, and a brief little surge of heat and humidity ahead of the front.
In the wake of the front, another refreshingly cool, dry air mass will move into the northern Plains and Midwest, then farther downstream. It’s not as deep as the trough last week, but it will have a greater impact than last week’s trough over the Northeast.
And don’t look now, but another strong upper level trough is heading into the Lakes and Ohio Valley by the beginning of next week, bringing still another cool (by July standards) air mass into play to wrap up the month. That’s going to mean some places in the Ohio Valley and Midwest ending up July more than four degrees cooler than average, some more than five below normal!
“A team of researchers from the Laboratory of Solar System Physics and Astrophysics of the Space Research Centre in the broad international cooperation for years conducted a comprehensive study of the heliosphere. A recently published the results of their next step.
The reaction of neutral atoms photoionization by ultraviolet radiation of the sun is important both for the understanding of photochemical processes in the upper atmosphere of the earth, and in the physics of the heliosphere. Exact consideration of photoionization is necessary to include to understand how the Sun modifies the gas streams, coming to us from the interstellar medium. Taking into account these modifications, and with measurements of interstellar gas streams carried in the interior of the solar system, we can infer what is happening in the interstellar cloud surrounding the sun. Since the flux of solar UV radiation varies strongly in time to the 11-letniegu cycle of solar activity, we need to know the rate of photoionization in the space of a few years before such observations, and if you want to compare the results of different observations spaced in time, then over the decades. Unfortunately, a sufficiently long series of such measurements is not, so in the past, often based on individual estimates or ionization treated as an additional unknown parameter.
Direct measurements of solar radiation in the field responsible for the photoionization, possible only from outside the earth’s atmosphere, are technically complex, inter alia, due to the fairly rapid and difficult to grasp changes in the characteristics of the detectors. Daily measurements of the solar spectrum in the far ultraviolet range is performed only since 2002 (NASA’s TIMED); since the mid-90s (ESA SOHO spacecraft) measurements were performed in part spectral range. Fortunately, changes in the solar spectrum in the range responsible for photoionization are correlated with the radio radiation of the Sun in the field decymetrowym which is accurately measured by telescopes on Earth since 1948.”
http://iopscience.iop.org/0067-0049/210/1/12/article
I’m surprised that the weather channel printed this:
All-Time Record Low July Temperatures:
http://www.weather.com/news/weather-forecast/polar-invasion-july-record-cold-temperatures-20140716
Got this link from http://iceagenow.info/
Thanks for this fantastic set of links. By the way, your quote from Jefferson – “The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers” – is often circulated on the Internet, but not what Jefferson actually said, although it’s pretty close. Here’s what he said in a letter to John Norvell (a newspaper editor who later became a Senator) dated 11 June 1807 (the spelling and punctuation is Jefferson’s):
“To your request of my opinion of the manner in which a newspaper should be conducted, so as to be most useful, I should answer, ‘by restraining it to true facts & sound principles only.’ Yet I fear such a paper would find few subscribers. It is a melancholy truth, that a suppression of the press could not more compleatly deprive the nation of it’s benefits, than is done by it’s abandoned prostitution to falsehood. Nothing can now be believed which is seen in a newspaper. Truth itself becomes suspicious by being put into that polluted vehicle. The real extent of this state of misinformation is known only to those who are in situations to confront facts within their knolege with the lies of the day. I really look with commiseration over the great body of my fellow citizens, who, reading newspapers, live & die in the belief, that they have known something of what has been passing in the world in their time; whereas the accounts they have read in newspapers are just as true a history of any other period of the world as of the present, except that the real names of the day are affixed to their fables. General facts may indeed be collected from them, such as that Europe is now at war, that Bonaparte has been a successful warrior, that he has subjected a great portion of Europe to his will, &c., &c.; but no details can be relied on. I will add, that the man who never looks into a newspaper is better informed than he who reads them; inasmuch as he who knows nothing is nearer to truth than he whose mind is filled with falsehoods & errors. He who reads nothing will still learn the great facts, and the details are all false.”
Source: http://lachlan.bluehaze.com.au/lit/jeff07.htm or http://press-pubs.uchicago.edu/founders/documents/amendI_speechs29.html
Thanks again for the links.
Dynamic Weather Pattern Means Extremes in the Next Week – Joe Lundberg Weather Blog
http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/lundberg/dynamic-weather/30887260
…
That’s a blast furnace of heat back in Kansas! The farther north and east it comes Friday, the higher the temperatures are going to be, plain and simple. It could easily surge past 100 across a big chunk of Missouri if the storms bypass the state to the northeast. On the other hand, if it rains in the morning, and it stays cloudy, it could stay in the 70s in Illinois and nearby areas!
This surge of heat never gets to the Northeast, and looming over the horizon is a much deeper upper-level trough, one that will renew last week’s chill across the nation’s heartland. Here’s just a peek at what that might look like next Tuesday: [image]
I suspect it will be even cooler than that!
A Cool End to July
http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/lundberg/a-cool-end-to-j/30940781
…
This cool air mass will be replaced by a torrid one on Friday in the central Plains, with temperatures heading toward the century mark in Kansas and Oklahoma. That heat and humidity, as it tries to push farther downstream, will trigger some thunderstorms across the Midwest and mid-Mississippi Valley that will then head to the east and southeast Friday into Friday night. The heat will try to follow, but it will run into more and more resistance over time. Still, Saturday looks to be oppressive across Kansas, Oklahoma and Arkansas into much of Missouri, and that heat and brutal humidity appears likely on southernmost Illinois and Kentucky into Tennessee. By Sunday, some of that same heat and humidity will make it over to the mid-Atlantic states, but not into New England and upstate New York as well as the Great Lakes.
Then a much more impressive cool air mass will swoop down into the Plains and Mississippi Valley. Just like last week, with the so-called ‘polar vortex’ dropped into the Midwest and rolled across the Great Lakes, a similarly strong upper-level low will roll across the northern Plains into the Midwest with similar results. Look at the GFS forecast of 500mb heights and anomalies for next Tuesday afternoon: [image]
Look familiar? It’s eerily similar to what we saw just a week ago, and it will mean another round of much below-normal temperatures up and down the Plains states eastward to the Appalachians. It won’t be quite as cool along the Eastern Seaboard, but it will be cooler. The core of the cool air is easily in the Mississippi Valley to the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Look at the projected seven-day means for next week: [image]
At this rate, we might have to start thinking about the first snowflakes of the season in the not-too-distant future!
Gentlemen, it may be difficult to give such a grade that I now introduce here, in connection futile the effort and commitment of the entire world’s scientific elite, and that there are virtually no tangible and visible true causes of climate change on our planet (and other planets). Tremendously many people participate in the search for causes in different ways, but there are no visible results.
It will be weird again to everyone, and I know that almost everyone will ignore my point, as it has been done so far. But so many forums, conferences, panels and thousands of tons of paper required to trillions of dollars. And what was found, in particular, from which we can establish a claim? Of course it has a lot of useful information from the laws of nature.
My evidence is confirmed in many of your data, but still trying to find an institution with which it can enter into a contract on the solution to this enigma. I guess I deserve a reward, if this my be true, but it should be the reward much greater than the gain of a skilled football players when the signatures of a contract. I write this for reasons that remain a trace of my attitude for the future time, let them know what kind of rut now science flounders.