NASA satellites see Neoguri grow into a super typhoon

The MODIS instrument aboard NASA’s Terra satellite captured this visible image of Typhoon Neoguri on July 5 at 01:20 UTC (July 4 at 9:20 p.m. EDT)

From July 4 to July 7 Tropical Cyclone Neoguri strengthened from a tropical storm into a supertyphoon. NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites passed over the rapidly intensifying storm and provided forecasters with visible, infrared and microwave data on the powerful supertyphoon.

On July 4 at 0900 UTC (5 a.m. EDT) Neoguri had maximum sustained winds near 55 knots (63.2 mph/101.9 kph). It was located near 13.1 north and 141.4 east, about 207 nautical miles (238.2 miles/383.4 km) west of Andersen Air Force Base, Guam. It was moving to the northwest at 13 knots (14.9 mph/24.0 kph). This visible image from the MODIS instrument aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite at 03:40 UTC on July 4 showed the bulk of the clouds and showers south and east of a clear eye. 

NASA’s Terra satellite passed over Neoguri as it became a typhoon on July 5. At 01:20 UTC (July 4 at 9:20 p.m. EDT) the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer known as MODIS that flies aboard Terra captured a visible image of Neoguri as it moved through the Northwestern Pacific Ocean. The MODIS image showed a clear eye, and a large, thick band of thunderstorms in the southern quadrant of the storm wrapping into the center.

On July 5 at 0900 UTC (5 a.m. EDT) satellite data helped confirm that Neoguri had become a typhoon in the Northwestern Pacific after it passed Guam. At that time it was centered near 16.0 north and 137.0 east, about 813 nautical miles (935.6 miles/1,506 km) southeast of Kadena Air Base. It was moving west-northwest at 14 knots (16.1 mph/25.9 kph) and had maximum sustained winds near 115 knots (132.3 mph/213.0 kph).

IMAGE: This false-colored infrared image of Supertyphoon Neoguri was taken by the AIRS instrument aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite on July 6 at 17:17 UTC (1:17 p.m. EDT). Purple indicates strongest thunderstorms….

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On July 6 Typhoon Neoguri continued to strengthen. Neoguri was located near 18.5 north and 131.4 east at 0900 UTC (5 a.m. EDT) on July 6. That’s about 661 nautical miles (760.7 miles/1,224 km) southeast of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan. It had maximum sustained winds near 120 knots (138.1 mph/222.2 kph) and was moving to the west-northwest at 15 knots (17.2 mph/27.7 kph). The Joint Typhoon Warning Center or JTWC noted that Neoguri was generating very rough and high seas as high as 32 feet (9.7 meters).

A false-colored infrared image of Supertyphoon Neoguri on July 6 at 17:17 UTC (1:17 p.m. EDT) was made at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California using data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument. AIRS flies aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite. The infrared imagery showed very cold, high, powerful thunderstorms around the center of Neoguri’s 40-nautical-mile-wide-eye and in a thick band south of the center.

By July 7 at 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT), Neoguri had grown into a supertyphoon with maximum sustained winds near 130 knots (149.6 mph/240.8 kph). The JTWC expects Neoguri to strengthen further. Neoguri was located near 21.6 north latitude and 127.3 east longitude, about 246 nautical miles (283.1 miles/455.6 km) south-southwest of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa, Japan. It was moving to the northwest at 15 knots (17.2 mph/27.7 kph). As Neoguri strengthened, the ocean has become more turbulent, and JTWC estimates maximum significant wave heights near 40 feet (12.1 meters).

Tropical storm-force winds extend 210 nautical miles (241.7 miles/388.9 km) from the center, and hurricane-force winds extend up to 60 nautical miles (69.0 miles/111.1 km) from the center.

For a graphic of watches in warnings in effect in Japan, visit the Japan Meteorological Agency’s page: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/.

Neoguri is moving northwest and continuing to strengthen. The JTWC expects Neoguri to turn to the north late on July 7 (EDT) and pass Kadena Air Base. A landfall in Kyushu is expected by July 9. The JTWC noted in a July 7 discussion: by July 9, cooling sea surface temperatures, increasing vertical wind shear ahead of the mid-latitude westerlies (winds), and landfall into Kyushu, Japan, will slowly erode the system.

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31 thoughts on “NASA satellites see Neoguri grow into a super typhoon

  1. Well, Super Typhoon Neoguri has put the kaibosh on tonight’s beers for me. I’m on an oil rig in the South China Sea, and was due to get onshore today, and the weather here is atrocious. We’re just being affected by the very western edge of the storm with horizontal rain, 30 to 40 knot winds and virtually zero visibility. The chopper pilot circled the rig this morning about 4 times trying to land but he had to admit defeat in the end and return to base.

    Still, there’s always tomorrow. But the forecast isn’t too good either…

  2. Well now it’s almost over. Highest wind 110 knots what I could find. Will probably head for the Japanese islands and landfall with about 50 knots. We had more in the squalls last year :-)

  3. But the sea seem worse than in this report. The weather for seaman have as much as 20 meters right now.

  4. Along with Arthur, this typhoon was powered up by recently intensified solar-driven tropical evaporation. The sun went from very quiet activity two weeks ago to a steady climb up to a current level of output that is higher and sustained longer than the solar input that preceded typhoon Haiyan last November.

    On June 25, the SSN was 37 and the F10.7cm “radio” flux was at 94, and after that steady increase, they peaked yesterday June 7 at SSN = 256, and F10.7 = 201 sfu.

    Las Vegas has felt the heat too during this recent solar blast, along with many places in the south and southwest over the past week. Did anyone see this coming?

    Look at the USAF F10.7 forecast as of today here, posted below the link:

    http://origin-www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/usaf-45-day-ap-and-f107cm-flux-forecast

    “:Product: 45 Day AP Forecast 45DF.txt
    :Issued: 2014 Jul 07 2052 UTC
    # Prepared by the U.S. Air Force.
    # Retransmitted by the Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Please send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov

    # 45-Day AP and F10.7cm Flux Forecast

    45-DAY AP FORECAST
    08Jul14 010 09Jul14 012 10Jul14 007 11Jul14 007 12Jul14 008
    13Jul14 008 14Jul14 005 15Jul14 012 16Jul14 008 17Jul14 008
    18Jul14 005 19Jul14 005 20Jul14 005 21Jul14 005 22Jul14 005
    23Jul14 005 24Jul14 005 25Jul14 005 26Jul14 008 27Jul14 005
    28Jul14 005 29Jul14 005 30Jul14 005 31Jul14 005 01Aug14 005
    02Aug14 005 03Aug14 005 04Aug14 005 05Aug14 008 06Aug14 008
    07Aug14 008 08Aug14 008 09Aug14 008 10Aug14 008 11Aug14 012
    12Aug14 008 13Aug14 008 14Aug14 005 15Aug14 005 16Aug14 005
    17Aug14 005 18Aug14 005 19Aug14 005 20Aug14 005 21Aug14 005

    45-DAY F10.7 CM FLUX FORECAST
    08Jul14 200 09Jul14 200 10Jul14 190 11Jul14 170 12Jul14 160
    13Jul14 140 14Jul14 140 15Jul14 120 16Jul14 110 17Jul14 110
    18Jul14 110 19Jul14 105 20Jul14 100 21Jul14 100 22Jul14 095
    23Jul14 095 24Jul14 100 25Jul14 110 26Jul14 125 27Jul14 135
    28Jul14 140 29Jul14 160 30Jul14 160 31Jul14 170 01Aug14 175
    02Aug14 185 03Aug14 205 04Aug14 205 05Aug14 205 06Aug14 190
    07Aug14 170 08Aug14 160 09Aug14 140 10Aug14 135 11Aug14 120
    12Aug14 110 13Aug14 110 14Aug14 110 15Aug14 105 16Aug14 100
    17Aug14 100 18Aug14 095 19Aug14 095 20Aug14 100 21Aug14 110″

    See that for 08Jul14 the F10.7 forecast is “200” and then tapers off, then ramps back up over the 27 day solar rotation period, back up to an even higher value of “205”. The same forecast made on June 29 was:

    “:Product: 45 Day AP Forecast 45DF.txt
    :Issued: 2014 Jun 29 2051 UTC
    # Prepared by the U.S. Air Force.
    # Retransmitted by the Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Please send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov

    # 45-Day AP and F10.7cm Flux Forecast
    #————————————————————-
    45-DAY AP FORECAST
    30Jun14 005 01Jul14 005 02Jul14 008 03Jul14 008 04Jul14 005
    05Jul14 005 06Jul14 005 07Jul14 005 08Jul14 005 09Jul14 005
    10Jul14 005 11Jul14 008 12Jul14 005 13Jul14 005 14Jul14 008
    15Jul14 012 16Jul14 008 17Jul14 008 18Jul14 005 19Jul14 005
    20Jul14 005 21Jul14 005 22Jul14 008 23Jul14 008 24Jul14 005
    25Jul14 005 26Jul14 005 27Jul14 005 28Jul14 005 29Jul14 005
    30Jul14 005 31Jul14 005 01Aug14 005 02Aug14 005 03Aug14 005
    04Aug14 005 05Aug14 005 06Aug14 005 07Aug14 008 08Aug14 005
    09Aug14 005 10Aug14 008 11Aug14 012 12Aug14 008 13Aug14 008

    45-DAY F10.7 CM FLUX FORECAST
    30Jun14 130 01Jul14 130 02Jul14 140 03Jul14 145 04Jul14 140
    05Jul14 145 06Jul14 155 07Jul14 140 08Jul14 135 09Jul14 130
    10Jul14 130 11Jul14 125 12Jul14 120 13Jul14 120 14Jul14 115
    15Jul14 110 16Jul14 105 17Jul14 105 18Jul14 105 19Jul14 105
    20Jul14 100 21Jul14 095 22Jul14 100 23Jul14 105 24Jul14 105
    25Jul14 110 26Jul14 115 27Jul14 115 28Jul14 120 29Jul14 125
    30Jul14 135 31Jul14 130 01Aug14 130 02Aug14 135 03Aug14 140
    04Aug14 135 05Aug14 130 06Aug14 130 07Aug14 125 08Aug14 120
    09Aug14 120 10Aug14 115 11Aug14 110 12Aug14 105 13Aug14 105″

    Notice for June 7, the F10.7 forecast originally was set for “140”, not “201”!?

    That means they got it wrong by a long shot, and then they figured that out – ie they learned from reality, and changed their forecast for the next rotation accordingly. Now, will that forecast be right? Since NOAA and NASA recently proclaimed solar cycle 24 had peaked or was peaking back in May or early June, and given this unexpected solar uptick, I’d have to say the solar max is either here now, or will be in August, or perhaps even the next rotation in September! Who knows!?

    So my point is that higher solar activity this summer and possibly beyond will drive higher sea surface temps, land temps, more evaporation, power more hurricanes & typhoons, and possibly lead to an El Nino. If the sun’s activity does taper off in the next rotation or two, then we’ll see about all that, won’t we? In June, after they announced the solar max, I was thinking we’d see the downhill slide sooner than later. See, that Sun has a mind of it’s own!

  5. Why is it I keep getting told the sun is constant, and has nothing to do with climate, one day some one will look at the sun and say bugger, it is the only heat source we have, some thing much change to have warm periods and cold periods. Not holding my breathe though. Thank you Bob Weber and thank you Ren.

  6. Is the term “super typhoon” real or is this like “super storm sandy”? The wiki page for tropical cyclone scales does not show the designation.

  7. lonetown – I was wondering the same thing. Super typhoon?

    Why not Turbo Typhoon? More descriptive, but it is kinda ’90’s.

    “Superstorm” Sandy was a Cat-3 for what, about 5 minutes, and wasn’t even a hurricane when it made landfall.

    The superlatives are wearing on my nerves these days.

  8. ren – the solar wind has been “normal” over the entire span of this ramp-up, the GOES X-ray flux has shown us nothing but C flares since July 1, when we had one M1.4 flare, with background x-ray also remaining steady, just off the floor. The solar polar fields flipped months ago too, so where is the Sun in it’s cycle? The USAF 10.7cm forecast mentioned above is showing a flux drop-off to “95” for July 22-23, and the same again for Aug 18-19 – when the active regions we presently see will have rolled off to the solar “farside” (non-Earth facing).

    See http://www.solarham.net/farside.htm for today and see how all the active regions are on the current Earth-facing side, and the farside now has little activity. In two weeks the situation will reverse completely, and we’ll be back down to a few sunspot groups, low SSN, and low F10.7 flux.

    The moon is reaching maximum declination south on July 10-11, whereafter it will transit northward to it’s maximum north declination on July 23-24. On it’s way south during the past weeks, it dragged cool Canadian air far southward that clashed with the solar-blast-driven tropical moisture, creating “weather” between them. As the moon pulls the already-warmed tropical air northward until July 23-24, the sun will diminish it’s radiance, balancing out temps somewhat. Imagine if the moon’s dec cycle was in synch with the solar blast this summer – it’d be hotter than blazes all the way into Canada during the higher solar activity periods. Instead it’s been cool in many locales.

  9. lonetown….

    super is a propaganda word, meant to scare people with weather.
    Weather is never unprecedented.

  10. lonetown says:
    July 8, 2014 at 4:47 am

    Is the term “super typhoon” real or is this like “super storm sandy”? The wiki page for tropical cyclone scales does not show the designation.

    Yes it is a legitimate category for typhoons, the definition is:
    100 knots (120 mph; 190 km/h) sustained winds.
    I believe these are 10 minute averages rather than 1 minute averages so they are approximately comparable to a category 4-5 hurricane

    I rode out a super typhoon near Guam in the 1970’s, Typhoon Amy 1971.
    Very impressive wave heights when it is tossing around an 18,500 ton ship and we were taking rolls that made us walk on the walls occasionally catching sheets of water not spray on the O3 level which was about 60′ above the nominal water line. After that experience I have no problem understanding how a similar typhoon near the end of WWII tore the bow off a war ship.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1971_Pacific_typhoon_season

    http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/weather/hurricane/history/typhoons-ww2-navy.htm

  11. Larry Ledwick says:
    July 8, 2014 at 8:00 pm

    The great climatologist Reid Bryson forecast Typhoon Cobra, but was ignored by Halsey, who led the Third Fleet into two typhoons, yet still made five stars. Cruiser Pittsburgh displaced 13,818 tons. Only the first segment of this newsreel is relevant:

    Bryson was beyond skeptical of CACA, all the way to derisively dismissive, yet some on this blog still question his studies of climate in the US Midwest. Famously stating, “You can go outside and spit and have the same effect as doubling carbon dioxide.”

    He didn’t believe that warmer temperatures in the ’80s & ’90s were caused by human activity, but argued for natural global climate cycles, observing that:

    “All this argument is the temperature going up or not, it’s absurd,” Bryson continues. “Of course it’s going up. It has gone up since the early 1800s, before the Industrial Revolution, because we’re coming out of the Little Ice Age, not because we’re putting more carbon dioxide into the air.”

  12. Cool video segment, Thanks!
    That is pretty much what the seas looked like for us during Typhoon Amy, hard to see the wave tops, as the spray swirled in the wind like a ground blizzard on the great plains. It was a real challenge to keep the ship so she took the waves properly and occasionally we would get slapped on the side of the bow by a wave that was not running with the seas and the ship would ring like a really big base tone bell. You could feel the shudder run from one end of the hull to the other.

    During one such bad wave, I was climbing a ladder (stairway) near the fantail and the hull dropped out from under me so fast I found my self floating in mid air for a moment before my shins and knees re-establish contact with the ladder as I came down to meet the ship as it was coming back up. Hell of a ride.

    The fast attack boats (nuclear fast attack submarines) were taking 30 degree rolls at several hundred feet depth according to a couple of the boat sailors I talked to.

  13. Bob Weber says July 8, 2014 at 8:02 am
    The solar polar fields flipped months ago too …

    Nope, they haven’t finished yet. It’s really drawn out affair this time:

  14. ROFL, “suburb of Pittsburgh” indeed from some smarta** with the group that found Pittsburgh’s bow.

  15. AJB, see http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/Polar.gif – I notice the mean value dipping now in similar fashion to what happened in 1991 just after both poles flipped. Notice the swings of both poles across the mean have gotten smaller in magnitude also since the start of cycle 24. The decreasing trend in overall magnitude leads one to wonder where the “magnetism” ie plasma will come from that is supposed to feed the surface dynamo for some time into the future, that is supposed to create the new active regions in the next cycle. The magnetic butterfly chart you linked indicates low magnetic strength also at high solar polar latitudes in recent years, giving the same message: low activity coming up and lasting for some time. So, lets’s enjoy those sunspots while they last!

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