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http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/tropical-cyclone/
Here in northern South Carolina the skies are beginning to clear and haven’t seen rain in
awhile and was never all that heavy or for very long. People on the beach. Winds very normal and light. Would never have guessed that rain was from a hurricane passing offshore. Arthur
has been mostly a big nothing around here.
The Bbc weather forecast At 10.30 pm just reported on hurricane Arthur and said it might just brush the carolinas but wouldn’t make landfall. Let’s see if they are right
Tonyb
TWCis forecasting a hit on Hatteras.
I can’t believe this thing got up to Cat 2 over Atlantic water in early July, Though I’m at Cape Canaveral, and the water’s already bathtub warm.
It’s OK folks, it will only hit Newfoundland :^)
Well, at least this one has a MALE name….
Many thanks to Joe Bastardi. He posted a warning for this hit on the Outer Banks last Sunday on Weatherbell.com and then here at WUWT on Monday, June 30th. He and Joe D’Aleo gave everyone a head’s up and hopefully everyone affected paid attention and no lives will be lost.
The Joes’ record of correct predictions is probably unsurpassed, although they are too humble to take that much credit.
looks like this one may hit me in maine with 60 to 70 knot winds.
MODS-something triggered cannot be posted first try so this may be repeat.
Recon link if interested.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF304-1401A-ARTHUR.png
The dry air inflow on the NW and W side must have been quite strong all day. In North Charleston, about 6 miles from Charleston Harbor entrance, it didn’t rain a drop! Wind was up to about 20-25 kts as it was E of us, but limited to the very top of the trees. On the ground, it was a non-event, in spite of all the NWS hype on VHF. NWS really needs to hire some professional weathercasters who can speak English in an interesting way and know how to read the radar display. Their mechanical voice repeating the exact same statistical drivel over and over is horrible. A tornado can be ripping right through the middle of the city and the NWS 162 Mhz computer drones on about yesterday’s low was 72 back in 1922, today’s high was 101 in 1963…who cares?! If people want those statistics they CERTAINLY have internet access and can read it. I gave up trying to get the programming on 162 Mhz changed to something useful.
Storm never touched 6 miles inland from Charleston Harbor….very compact little storm.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/validProds.php?prod=CLI&node=KCHS
All this useless nonsense is read over and over as part of our weather roll on 162.55 Mhz.
This is the first Hurricane to hit the U.S. in how long?
Here’s another nice link:
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
Scroll east to see the storm.
I neglected to state the image link I posted on recon autoupdates every 10 minutes while they are in the air.
Thoughts and prayers to those impacted by Arthur
Very strange that earth: nullschool has this image: http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/07/04/2100Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_cloud_water/orthographic=-72.92,40.33,556
And the link from Louis has it here; a bit lower. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
I’d have thought the null earth would be behind current radar…odd or just me?
There is another one coming that’s probably much stronger. Right now forming at 12 degrees North 142 degrees East. (East of Philippines). Look like it will be much stronger than Arthur, who may be downgraded on Saturday / Sunday.
Well not to worry. On average, which is how climate is measured (over 30 years), tropical storm Arthur will hardly be noticed.
When I was coming across the Pacific by ship, we got clobbered by the tidal wave from an offshore earthquake up around Alaska.
The wave struck the ship at about 400 miles per hour (I assume that was nautical). It was an event I shall never forget. Caused some damage in Hawaii, and also went way up some rivers in Australia, I believe. Wavelength was about 150 miles, and I think they said the wave height was one foot.. I’m sorry for the rod/stone/fortnight units, but that’s how I remembered it. The skipper sounded the ships horn to warn everyone when the wave hit us.
So Arthur will be just an asterisk in the climate history books; on average.
Robert of Ottawa says: “It’s OK folks, it will only hit Newfoundland :^)”
It looks like Nova Scotia will first get a good whack.
This radar image shows swarms of birds in the eye of the hurricane :
:large
Pretty cool!
ldd
click Earth and set the time.
george e. smith says:
July 3, 2014 at 8:06 pm “we got clobbered”
“ Wavelength was about 150 miles, and I think they said the wave height was one foot..”
That is worth the price of admission. With the “we got clobbered” part providing the misdirection, I was LOL with the 1ft. Thanks.
ren says:
July 3, 2014 at 8:58 pm
Thanks ren, didn’t even catch that. Duh, on my part.
Amazing how much Arthur has cold the western Atlantic. I wonder if this may have an effect on early winter ice formation. If it proceeds on the projected track it will really do a number on the warmer water the gulf stream would normally deliver to the arctic.
Francisco says:
July 3, 2014 at 4:18 pm
Arthur? A male name? Not always. And we get a bonus “B” name here too.
Sorry, I could only take about 2 minutes of that. Amazing how we are still dealing with the same agenda almost 40 years later.
Not seeing any wind speeds reaching 50mph on the Wundermap right now. Was it hurricane force over land earlier?
NWS reports from Dare County Regional (Manteo, Roanoke Island, North Carolina) show no wind gusts higher than 47mph or barometer lower than 28.91 over the last three days as of 0535 EDT, 4 Jul 14. Another busted forecast. Another lost payday for the folks on the outer banks.
Probably one of the most ridiculous things ever written from ignorance here. Too stupid to deconstruct, in fact.
Looks from the morning news coverage that there was some flooding in the outer banks, Not buildings being washed away but water into the first levels. I’m sure most of the shop keepers will open soon but there will be clean-up to do. At least one highway looked pretty broken up, so travel might be a bit slow as well. I looked at the Wonder Map this morning and places like Hatteras are missing wind data from the lowest pressure times, so hard to tell from that what the max sustained winds may have been.
Larry Butler said:
July 3, 2014 at 6:06 pm
… A tornado can be ripping right through the middle of the city and the NWS 162 Mhz computer drones on about yesterday’s low was 72 back in 1922, today’s high was 101 in 1963…who cares?!
========
(For our overseas friends, Larry is talking about our national weather radio alert system…NOAA Weather Radio. A great little gadget that I’ve tuned in daily for over 30 years.)
I hope more listeners will complain to NWS about this. I wrote a lengthy email to them after (i think) hurricane Isabel. I had been tracking the storm by internet until losing power. Then I only had NOAA weather radio in my battery powered, candle lit house. And, it was useless.
It wasn’t many years ago that NWR stations in the path of the storm rebroadcast all the NHC bulletins. They even publish maps to help listeners track the storm.
Robert of Ottawa says: It’s OK folks, it will only hit Newfoundland :^)
Just tell them US wind turbines accidentally collected too much electricity and we had to bleed some off by having them act as big fans. We figured Newfies like things cooler so we pointed them their way; they’ll understand..
re: ldd July 3, 2014 at 6:39 pm
…
I’d have thought the null earth would be behind current radar…odd or just me?
Null earth is not RADAR based. Various forms of precipitation are detected by RADAR. Winds can be detected if something is caught up in the winds (precip, dust, a flock of birds, chaff, etc).
Null Earth seems to animate the ‘winds’ at various levels (850 thru 200 mb) as plotted from radiosonde data as obtainable in ‘static’ form here:
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/upper/
For what it is worth, we were directly hit by Arthur last night. We spent most of Thursday preparing our house and the house of a close friend in Marshallburg who is out of the country for hurricane weather, anticipating that it was going to miss offshore, but as it turned out it went directly overhead between 10 pm and 11 pm. By directly, I mean that we actually experienced the cessation of the ~70 mph winds hitting us almost due east, went outside in the dead calm of the eye to check on things (which were fine) and then went back in as the winds picked up from first the west, then rapidly shifting around to the northwest and north. Our neighbor lost some of his soffits in his (new construction) house — a few houses including the one we are staying in lost a few shingles — but most of these houses have weathered 20 to 40 hurricanes already and category 2 or not, they weathered this one. The single annoying thing about the hurricane was the loss of electricity around 9 pm as the wind reached 60+ mph until this morning around 10 when stalwarts at Duke Power, working at a dozen places all over Carteret county, brought it back to us and most of the rest of Beaufort. We drove to Marshallburg and our friends (whose house is right on the sound) had a big branch down on the roof, but no roof damage I could see — he’ll be able to chainsaw it up in place when he gets back tomorrow. I’m hoping they get back electricity by then — we didn’t mess with their freezer — but Duke Power was working replacing broken poles and clearing away trees as we drove down 70 on the way to their house.
As far as I know, nobody died or even got seriously hurt in this storm, which fortunately sped up to make landfall three hours before high tide instead of at high tide — it was pushing water OUT to sea from 11 pm on so our storm surge was minimal, about a foot (which happened to be right up to the top of the sea wall behind our house, but not up into our yard.
Kudos to the National Weather Service, that really did an excellent job providing tracking information right up to the point where we lost power and internet service. Compare the damage done by this category two storm here, where most sensible construction is hurricane-proof “or else” as NC gets hit by hurricanes up through category 3 all the time, and category one Sandy up where decades of shoddy beach construction had occurred.
Anyway, that’s twice now that we’ve experienced the eye of a hurricane — Fran went right over our house in Durham as well — but Fran did far more damage moving slowly and after 12 inches of rain in 12 hours. Arthur was comparatively dry and very, very fast.
The highest winds of the entire storm were probably measured at Cape Lookout (just to the east of the eye as it passed, adding the speed of the storm to the speed of the winds circulating around the storm). The highest speed gust measured there was 101 mph. The highest speed gust at Fort Macon (basically across the bay from my house, maybe 4 miles away) was 87 mph, and we heard a few gusts that made the whole house thrum that were probably up there above 80 mph. But max sustained winds were more like 60-70 mph throughout the region hit by the eye everywhere but the east edge, which added another 10-20 mph as the speed of the storm itself. There were also (very likely, nobody was “watching” but radar) a few EF0 and/or EF1 tornadoes spun down briefly in Carteret county — two were reported as having knocked down a few trees. But EF1 tornadoes are almost indistinguishable from the wind gusts that the hurricane produced anyway — 86-110 mph.
I don’t know much about Hatteras, but the eye appeared to pass well inshore of Hatteras (and was spinning down from running mostly over land or shallow sound waters). They were disadvantaged by a higher tide and probable storm surge, but they probably didn’t get much over tropical storm force winds with occasional gusts up into hurricane territory — nothing that they aren’t built to take. The big issue there is storm surge on the ocean side and whether or not it gets up high enough to breach the dunes and cut the roads. Last I heard this wasn’t a huge issue there, although there may have been a few exceptions.
Right now the weather is actually pretty nice and normal — low 80’s, southwest winds, tide that has just started to fall from normal (neither neap nor spring). The nearby cities all postponed the 4th of July celebrations until Saturday (wisely — people are still cleaning up downed branches and putting small things to right) but there really isn’t much reason they COULDN’T have happened today other than that.
It’s really amazingly little damage for a storm that came ashore as (barely) category 2. Pivers Island (where Duke and NOAA are, right next to where I stay) are having trouble with power and Duke Power trucks have been over there all morning, but the power goes over a bridge to them and they frequently seem to have issues with it during bad weather events. Hopefully we’ll be on track to start class Monday (as my inter-session break comes to a close:-).
rgb
This is the first Hurricane to hit the U.S. in how long?
The first Category 2 since Hurricane Ike in 2008 — six years. And it was (trust me) BARELY category 2. That is, a few stations recorded gusts of 100 mph, but the storm had sustained winds well under that, probably under 90 mph.
rgb
Arthur is heading for the Bay of Fundy.