The predicted 2014 El Niño is expected to benefit U.S. agriculture

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Maybe this will temper the usual expected claims that this El Niño is all about global warming, because we can’t have global warming be beneficial, right?

MANHATTAN — A Kansas State University senior agricultural economist says there’s a 70 percent chance an El Niño will arrive this fall — and that’s good news for the United States.

Jay O’Neil, an instructor and specialist at the university’s International Grains Program, says what happens with El Niño will affect worldwide crop production. El Niño, which is the warming of the sea temperatures off the coast of Peru, is expected to affect crops during September, October and November.

“El Niño is generally favorable to crop production in the United States because it brings extra rain and moisture into the core crop-growing areas,” O’Neil said. “We’re just coming out of a four-year drought cycle in the United States and we’d like to get back to what we call trend-line yields and big crop production so there’s plenty for everybody.”

Better crop production in the U.S. would also mean lower food prices. However, other countries would experience harsher growing conditions because of El Niño. O’Neil says South America is expected to be dryer than usual, which would have an impact on the global food market.

“If South America goes dry, that would affect next year’s production worldwide,” O’Neil said.

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The current SST doesn’t show any strong signs of a strong El Niño, just a weak one off the west coast of South America but that may still change later in the year.

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32 thoughts on “The predicted 2014 El Niño is expected to benefit U.S. agriculture

  1. Not seeing any evidence of any El Nino so far, just some warmish La Nada. Trade winds are still pretty much nominal in the eastern and mid-Pacific, trades actually picking up and strengthening in the western Pacific. Surface temperature anomalies are declining with a negative anomaly now appearing between 160W-170W and the warm anomalies in the eastern Pacific starting to fade. See (latest at very bottom):

    and

    and

  2. Certainly more rain that the last couple of years in the midwest. Corn in Missouri is looking amazing.

  3. Official forecast keep getting weaker and weaker. 3.4 index predicted to peak at….1. Down from 1.5 a month or so ago. At this rate, it may actually not happen.

    Total LOL at all the idiots predicting a SUPERMANBEARPIG El Nino…

  4. He must mean the 2015 crop year in the US. I don’t see that in the article.
    Also, at the moment, the 2014 corn crop is trying to set a record.

  5. Generally, there are enough offsetting rainfall changes across the globe in an El Nino or a La Nina so that it doesn’t really affect global food production. There are some local/regional price impacts but it doesn’t impact global food prices reliably enough to make it an investment strategy for example. I think the US, overall, is better off in La Nina conditions (sorry Texas and California but the (rest of the) plains is more important.

  6. It’s gets dry in some places….it gets wet in some places
    ..someone needs a grant to study this

  7. Global warming , particularly in the winter months as 90% of CET warming (0.4C/century in winter against 0.05C/century in summer) is beneficial not only to agriculture but also for heating fuel usage.
    On forthcoming el’Nino
    How the SOI and multivariate ENSO translate into el’Nino, I wouldn’t like to say, due to lack of any in depth knowledge, but it seems to me that a high threshold of tectonic activity in the Central Pacific (bringing cool waters to the surface?) corresponds to global cooling and a low threshold to the global warming period. The‘apparent’ correlation (except for 1952 – 1954) could be coincidental, but (inmo) unlikely. There is a ‘nominal’ delay of about 4 years, but could be less ( e.g. in 2003 it may have been just one year), depending on the where the strongest disturbances are along the almost 160 degrees of the longitudinal path.

  8. “El Niño is generally favorable to crop production in the United States because it brings extra rain and moisture into the core crop-growing areas,” O’Neil said. “We’re just coming out of a four-year drought cycle in the United States and we’d like to get back to what we call trend-line yields and big crop production so there’s plenty for everybody.”

    This doesn’t even cycle out as good within the USA, but I may be prejudiced a little with the +10″ or rain we have gotten since last week. Corn crop core areas of Iowa / Illinois / Nebraska are getting their moisture from the PDO cycle change and we really don’t need much more this month.

  9. I’ve been following this for awhile. Does anyone actually KNOW what an El Nino will do even if it does appear? This seems like much ado about nothing.

  10. Latitude says:
    June 17, 2014 at 9:05 am

    IPCC AR5 says that as CO2 increases, the wet places will get wetter, and the dry place will get drier.

    Be afraid, be very afraid.

  11. Good start for feed crops here in the mid-Appalachians after a brutal winter. Plenty of moisture in most areas and escaped the common late-frost in low-lying areas. Corn will be knee-high well before the fourth of July.

  12. Unless the trade winds respond to the warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific (and they haven’t so far), this is not going to be much of an El Nino.

    Other than that, nothing much to report since the last update….and I’m still waiting for GISS to provide their May 2014 global temperature anomaly so that I can post the monthly update.

    Ciao!

  13. “A Kansas State University senior agricultural economist says there’s a 70 percent chance an El Niño will arrive this fall”

    I don’t see meteorologist in them credits.

  14. Looks to me that the real news is in the northeastern Pacific and far north Atlantic. If someone predicted a record low Arctic Ice minimum, I wouldn’t dispute it. Yet NOAA is predicting greater than normal ice coverage this year.

  15. My hunch, based on the amount of below surface warming looking like it is wimping out, I think this will be another set of bouncing back and forth El Nado/La Nada’s till something breaks away from this set-up and restarts the pendulum swing. Further, I think it is exactly in this wimpy in-between ocean behavior that may portend future cooling. Why? Not a lot of discharge left to discharge and not a lot of recharge happening.

  16. Does anyone actually KNOW what an El Nino will do even if it does appear?

    Make warmists ecstatic. With the usual evolution of fluids.

  17. At around the current 400 ppmv CO2, there will be much better crop harvests than at 275 ppmv

  18. The weather response of classic El Nino and La Nina conditions has been studied quite a bit. Both statistical and dynamical models capture quite a bit of the event as it progresses. The statistical models use analog years (previous years that match current conditions) as well as other calculations and data to predict the oceanic conditions and weather out to about 3 months. The weather data from analog years are most often used for agricultural planning.

    http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CB8QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.oregon.gov%2FODA%2Fnrd%2Fdocs%2Fdlongrange.ppt&ei=bY-gU_mFKcuQyASDzYCoCA&usg=AFQjCNHhHqr-KPBcyM9vlgEC4lkTnBaIIQ&sig2=z6rvtziY_6PnD0iNrsxMsQ&bvm=bv.68911936,d.aWw

  19. This is old news. Seriously, Joe D and I have been on this, and using all this to show its the pacific that controls US rainfall and the state of the PDO/MEI for eternity. Idso has opined as much.

    This article, describing the wet weather, directed at the Global warming drought kabal at Texas Tech and A and M, is an example

    http://patriotpost.us/opinion/25957

    As for the El Nino, this was another overhyped event designed to get attention to for a global temp spike. We believe this is a Modiki, typical of the cold PDO ninos, that has the MEI/PDO spike warm for a few months then right back to cool. May I remind you that since 1997, each warm enso event that has appeared has had someone from the warming side scream Super Nino, the previous 4 times Hansen, and now its a different group, but its the same story over an over again. People who do not know the weather, have not looked into what physically drives these events, seeing a pool of warm sub surface water and then rushing to show how its because of agw.

  20. jbird on June 17, 2014 at 9:19 am

    I’ve been following this for awhile. Does anyone actually KNOW what an El Nino will do even if it does appear? This seems like much ado about nothing.

    What it might “do” is cause a reactive La Nina. If this is stronger than this quite weak-looking el Nino. If this happens it could signify a reversal of the ENSO asymmetry which for the last few decades has favoured el Nino. Another sign of changing times.

  21. ” SUPER EL NIÑO says: June 17, 2014 at 8:16 am
    el NIño brings dry weather in the caribbean.. so i HATE EL NIÑO ”

    So lets just open up the panama / south america pathway for all that warm water to go through for you and that will fix those annoying ice ages as well.

    Seriously though, if Dr Easterbrook is correct (and 12+ years in his prediction is holding up) then we are in for colder & drier times for the next 2 decades. I’m afraid that he’s going to be correct.

    Hmm maybe that Panama thing should be looked at.

  22. Over here in Oz the alarmists are hoping, praying for El Nino to bring DOOM and DROUGHT so they can twerk themselves in the media as the true prophets of doom and seers of the future. Don’t give us this El Nino good news stuff! :)

  23. I guess if they keep predicting it, it will happen eventually.
    Australian Bureau of Meteorology has been wrong for a couple of years now!

  24. “El Niño is generally favorable to crop production in the United States”

    US is the top exporter of wheat and produces 40% of world’s corn. The world can eat more bread and corn flakes.

    “South America is expected to be dryer than usual, which would have an impact on the global food market”

    South America exports coffee and sugar. Drink less coffee and eat less sugar. It’s good for your health.

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