Sea Ice News Volume 5 #3 – The 2014 Sea Ice Forecast Contest

Gore_Falsified_Arctic_12-14-2013While we have done this usually a week ahead in prior years, I’m very late out of the gate this year, as I have a lot of distractions and work on my plate.

Due to the deadline being today, this will be a short poll that will close at 5PM PST today. Get your votes in. 

================================================================

From: http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook

First Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions

June Report (Based on May data)
Submission deadline: Tuesday, 10 June 2014

Contact: Helen Wiggins,  ARCUS

Since 2008, the annual SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) has obtained over 300 community predictions of the September sea ice extent.

This year represents a transition for the SIO, as it is now managed as part of the Sea Ice Prediction Network project as a contribution to SEARCH. The goal of the SIO is to improve sea ice prediction on seasonal time-scales by developing a network of scientists and stakeholders to advance research on sea ice prediction. At a recent workshop and over the past few years, SIO contributors and users have offered many recommendations for expanding the SIO. Starting this year, the SIO reports will be responsive to these recommendations and will evolve to a more robust scientific tool. While keeping the same general structure for the SIO as before, it is time to encourage more model participation and expand the information provided from model activities.

For the June and July reports (using May and June data, respectively), we request pan-Arctic Outlooks. Later in the season (early August), while updates to pan-Arctic Outlooks will be welcome, we will primarily focus on regional forecasts. However, contributions for pan-Arctic and regional will be accepted during all periods.

We will also post a separate announcement calling for participants in a SIPN Action Team to work with us to further develop and steer the details of SIO reports as the season develops.

We encourage all past contributors to submit Outlooks this year and we also hope to see new participants.

==================================================================

The contest is to forecast the September monthly average Arctic sea ice extent (in million square kilometers).

For a primer, see the WUWT Sea Ice Reference Page

This year, a model forecast from NOAA CFSv2 says that we might see something well above 6.0 million square kilometers:

CFSv2_Capture_june10-2014

Source: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/sieMon.gif

If they are right, that line from September to October would put the average somewhere around 8 million, with a minimum of about 6.7 and much earlier. I find that a bit hard to believe, since it would be a return to minimum sea ice values of the 1980′s:

ssmi1-ice-area

Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center (NERSC) – Arctic Regional Ocean Observing System (ROOS) – Click the pic to view at source

OTOH, Arctic temperature is running below normal:

Arctic Temperature:

Mean Temperature above 80°N

Danish Meteorological Institute – Click the pic to view at source

So since the possible range this year is so wide, I’m limiting the poll to increments of 250,000 sq Km instead of the 100,000 used in previous years. Otherwise I’ll exceed the maximum number of poll questions.

 

POLL CLOSED AS DEADLINE IS TODAY

As I did last year, I will submit the weighted average value of the top 5 vote-getters.

UPDATE: The poll closed as we have the deadline looming, and here are the results of the weighted average, which totals over 50 percent of the votes:

2014_seaice_extent_prediction_WUWT

A value of 6.12 million sq km will be sent to ARCUS.

Tool: http://handymath.com/cgi-bin/wghtedavg4.cgi

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68 Responses to Sea Ice News Volume 5 #3 – The 2014 Sea Ice Forecast Contest

  1. CodeTech says:

    I predict it will be somewhere between the minimum recorded and the maximum recorded, with a slight possibility of it being below or above those levels. I also predict that it makes absolutely no difference whatsoever, but some people like to stress over it.

  2. I put out my projected forecast for minimum on April 1 2014 Around 4,2500,000

    photo/1

  3. TheLastDemocrat says:

    None! You all can laugh at me now. But we will see who is laughing when I kayak ALL the way to the REAL North Pole in September. Whiskey or no, this is a GO!

  4. Mine est is for AREA, Extent would be higher. 6,2500.000

  5. imoira says:

    TheLastDemocrat @ 7:21:
    Does your kayak have a sail?

  6. Alan Robertson says:

    We’re going to have another “Polar Vortex” next winter, which will limit Arctic sea ice to around 4 MKm2, but unlike last year, the grid will fail from record demand and people will die from the severe cold in the US.

  7. Steve from Rockwood says:

    5.25 +/- 0.50 and I’m wrong every year :)

  8. Oldseadog says:

    TheLastDemocrat;
    Whisky, not Whiskey.
    Unless you are being sponsored by one of the manufacturers of those inferior beverages manufactured in places outwith Scotland.
    (Sorry Mods, OT but couldn’t resist.)

  9. Ron C. says:

    Comparing NOAA and MASIE Arctic Ice Extent

    Some might be interested to compare MASIE results with NOAA Sea Ice Index, since NOAA is a typical reference for Arctic Ice news. NOAA uses only passive microwave readings, while MASIE includes other sources, such as satellite images and field observations.

    For comparison, MASIE shows about 700,000 Km2 more ice extent than NOAA both at maximum and minimum. This is usually explained by microwave sensors seeing melt water on top of ice the same as open water.

    For the years 2007 to 2013 inclusive, each year MASIE shows higher maximums than NOAA, on average 5% higher. In each of those same years MASIE shows higher minimums than NOAA, on average 15% higher. The melt extent is more comparable: NOAA shows an average annual loss of 70.5 %, while MASIE shows an average loss of 67.5%.

    What can we expect from NOAA for 2014 minimum ice extent?

    Average: 4.40 MKm2, (comparable to 5.09 for MASIE)If the loss is the same as the seven-year average, the minimum for 2014 can be estimated to be 4.40MKm2, which is 13% less than the 2013 minimum of 5.08 MKm2. This is due to starting the melt with a smaller max extent.

    Low: 3.29 Mkm2, (comparable to 3.81 for MASIE)On the other hand, if the loss is as great as in 2012 (the record recent minimum), 2014 could go as low as 3.29 Mkm2, which would be a new record.

    High: 4.97 MKm2,, (comparable to 5.74 for MASIE)If the melt is as small as 2009, the 2014 minimum could be as high as 4.97 MKm2.

    If the 2014 NH ice extent minimum is outside this range, then maybe the climate is changing. Note that an extent matching or exceeding 2013 would be outside this range.

  10. John Silver says:

    Is there a yearly “Sea Ice Forecast Contest” for Antarctica as well?
    I wonder why.

  11. Nylo says:

    I voted 6M. My heart tells me 5.5M but if NOAA is forecasting 6.7… I want to think that they will not screw up that badly.

  12. Just two months ago the warmists bottled up their champagne glasses in the expectations of a Super El Niño and possible warmer global temperatures.
    Now this hope is fast fading away and add to that their only global warming talking point the lack of ice in Arctic is doing that too.
    Not easy to be a warmist with a straight face these days.

  13. Caleb says:

    6.25 million km2, and that may be low.

    The ice up there is really smashed up by a lot of windy weather and storms, and one thing that has happened is that a lot of pressure ridges have been built up. It is like the ice is an accordion and is compressed. That creates open water, which loses heat and also forms new ice, which also gets compressed into further pressure ridges.

    Once the summer thaw starts those pressure ridges can start to crumble and disintegrate. They are just jumbles of loosely adhered slabs of ice, and as they fall apart it is like a small pat of butter being spread out over a large slice of bread. It shows you, in a sense, how meaningless the “extent” of ice is. When the “accordion” is compressed, the same amount of ice can have a small extent, but when the “accordion” is expanded the extent can be large.

    What really matters is the temperature of the water, which melts the ice much more than the air does. The sea temperature also effects the 2m air temperature, and, judging from the DMI graph of 2m air temperatures north of 80 degrees latitude, the water likely is colder.

    I’ve been taking notes on the ice up there for over a year now, and it is pretty impressive how the volume of the pressure ridges has increased. One team of arctic adventurers skiing to the north Pole described the conditions as “crazy ice.” My latest notes are at: http://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2014/06/09/arctic-sea-ice-melt-the-death-spirals-death/

  14. Joseph Bastardi says:

    Lets remember that anything this year near normal is a huge win for those that have been preaching for years ( well before I) that its the AMO that is the major driver of arctic ice extent. Keep in mind that Dr Grays forecast implications of the flip back to the negative AMO in a permanent sense is around 2020, and this years relatively slight cooling in the AMO is a big deal as to what its showing with the ice. I wrote about this whole thing, including the linkage to the 50s hurricane burst on the east coast ( remember the AMO went cold for a time in the 50s, but the warmest water was dammed up on the east coast in the atlantic) and the coming turn for good of the AMO. I am going to show alot of this at idea, certainly not proven a only the coming 10-20 years will show it, at Heartland July 7-9 in Vegas.

    http://patriotpost.us/opinion/26136

    give it a read and watch the coming years.

    One thing is certain. even if it gets NEAR NORMAL given what its been the past 10-15 years since the warm amo really took hold, we can safely say that co2 has nothing to do with this. Again Grays ideas rule the roost when it comes to what the oceans are doing to drive the climate

    http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/gray2012.pdf

  15. Joseph Bastardi says:

    Let me apologize for this incoherent passage

    I am going to show alot of this at idea, certainly not proven a only the coming 10-20 years will show it, at Heartland July 7-9 in Vegas.

    It should read:

    I am going to show alot of this idea, certainly not proven, as only the coming 10-20 years will show it, at Heartland July 7-9 in Vegas.

    The auto-correct in this computer drives me nuts.. as it will take words and change them, and I just dont catch it sometimes. I am very sorry..Yes its my fault…as I am guilty of assuming that everything is as I thought I wrote it.

  16. Jim Hunt says:

    [snip no, we are not going to have you thread-jack again by pushing your own website and own views - Anthony]

  17. Jimbo says:

    OTOH, Arctic temperature is running below normal:

    Arctic Temperature:

    Mean Temperature above 80°N

    During the summer of 2013 it did run below ‘normal’ all summer.
    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2013.png

    How about a vote on this? Professor Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University has predicted that the Arctic would become ice free in 2015 or 2016, but not later.

    [Linked references here]
    ——-
    Daily Telegraph – 8 November 2011
    Arctic sea ice ‘to melt by 2015′
    Prof Wadhams said: “His [model] is the most extreme but he is also the best modeller around.

    “It is really showing the fall-off in ice volume is so fast that it is going to bring us to zero very quickly. 2015 is a very serious prediction and I think I am pretty much persuaded that that’s when it will happen.”
    ——-

    Guardian – 17 September 2012
    Arctic expert predicts final collapse of sea ice within four years
    “This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates”.
    ——-

    Financial Times Magazine – 2 August 2013
    “It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,”
    ——-

    The Scotsman – 12 September 2013
    Arctic sea ice will vanish within three years, says expert
    “The entire ice cover is now on the point of collapse.

    “The extra open water already created by the retreating ice allows bigger waves to be generated by storms, which are sweeping away the surviving ice. It is truly the case that it will be all gone by 2015. The consequences are enormous and represent a huge boost to global warming.”
    ——-

    Guardian – 17 September 2012
    “This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates“.
    ——-

    Arctic News – June 27, 2012
    My own view of what will happen is: 1. Summer sea ice disappears, except perhaps for small multiyear remnant north of Greenland and Ellesmere Island, by 2015-16. 2. By 2020 the ice free season lasts at least a month and by 2030 has extended to 3 months…..

  18. william says:

    Whatever the extent, all of the Polar bears will be drowned and life on our planet will cease when the atlantic conveyor stops and North American temperatures drop to 100 degrees below zero. I saw a documentary put out by NOAA called “The Day After Tomorrow”. Thank goodness our president is going to shut down all the coal plants so that all those people dont freeze to death. There are not enough books to burn to stay warm through something like that!

  19. James at 48 says:

    My call: Absolute, nominal normalcy. No high records, no low records, nothing remotely approaching a record.

  20. Jimbo says:

    Maybe I’m just missing something but Wadhams has been quiet this year about an ice fee Arctic. I wish he wouldn’t be as I am waiting for that Harold Camping moment.

    You can keep up with Waddhams’ shenanigans below.
    http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/search/label/Peter%20Wadhams

  21. James at 48 says:

    RE: Caleb says:
    June 10, 2014 at 8:46 am

    At the extremes of compression, things go beyond simple pressure ridges. Slabs of ice “obduct” and form a double thickness.

  22. FergalR says:

    Oldseadog;
    Triple distilled Irish Whiskey is far superior to the Scots’ peat-soaked crud as you well know.

  23. Jim Hunt says:

    Re: @Anthony says: June 10, 2014 at 8:55 am

    It’s not my “own views” Anthony. In fact it’s a long list of useful facts and figures for anybody attempting to forecast the future of Arctic sea ice. A long list of useful information still noticeable only by its absence from the WUWT sea ice reference page.

    REPLY: We aren’t forecasting volume, we are forecasting extent, so again, your views that we should pay attention to volume graphs on your website (your favorite hobby horse) in this extent forecasting exercise are irrelevant. Don’t clutter up this thread further – Anthony

  24. dbstealey says:

    As we see here, the planet is still recovering from the Little Ice Age. Naturally polar ice is going to decline.

    Notice that in the [natural] global warming since the LIA, the trend has remained within its long term parameters. Despite all the alarmist predictions, there has been no acceleration in global warming [in fact, GW has stopped].

    If polar ice declines, so what? As with rising CO2, that would be a net benefit: much shorter transit times for shipping, with much reduced fuel costs, an open northwest passage, less need for icebreakers, etc.

    The only reason polar ice is discussed is because of the endless predictions that Arctic ice would soon disappear. The alarmist crowd is desperately hoping that it does. But so what if it does? It’s all good… and it’s all natural.

  25. JoeH says:

    NOAA may well be forecasting high for the dual reasons of if they are correct they can say – look at how well we did, and if the forecast shows below their level they get to ask “where’s all the ice we were expecting?”
    From just a quick look at the graphs I would guess a minimum 5.7

  26. James Abbott says:

    dbstealey says

    “The only reason polar ice is discussed is because of the endless predictions that Arctic ice would soon disappear. The alarmist crowd is desperately hoping that it does. But so what if it does? It’s all good… and it’s all natural.”

    Mmm .. so no worries if there is no Arctic sea ice then ? No concerns about the temperature jump that would cause in the Arctic leading to more rapid melting of the Greenland ice mass and other land based ice sheets in the north ?

    People living in London, New York and many other coastal/estuary based cities might disagree.

  27. dbstealey says:

    James Abbott says:

    Mmm .. so no worries if there is no Arctic sea ice then ? No concerns about the temperature jump that would cause in the Arctic leading to more rapid melting of the Greenland ice mass and other land based ice sheets in the north ?

    No worries. But if you want to worry about that fake scare, go right ahead. It is amusing to rational folks.

  28. phlogiston says:

    Joseph Bastardi says:
    June 10, 2014 at 8:49 am

    Thanks for the Gray paper pdf, I see why you are enthusiastic about his work, and agree fully that deep ocean circulation is the key to climate at all timescales decadal and above. The literature of modelling of deep ocean circulation, the bipolar seesaw etc. seems to be much more meaningful than that of the atmosphere.

  29. D.J. Hawkins says:

    I went with 6.25 million. I think the minimum extent will continue to rebound, but at a much lower rate since the new ice cover is reducing the outgoing IR from formerly open water. I’m also guessing that we won’t get any storms causing the ice to run pell mell out of the Arctic.

  30. phlogiston says:

    Last night I saw Springwatch on the BBC. They talked to eel fishermen from near Bristol who said that this year has seen an extraordinary jump in the abundance of elvers returning from the Sargasso sea. The numbers are some 30x higher than over the last decade, during which they were in serious decline. One of them speculated that it was due to a shift in the pattern of the gulf stream. He could well be right; if he is, this could represent the overturning of the AMO and also the start of a phase of Arctic ice recovery.

    If you’re skeptical that the AMO is closely linked to Arctic ice, check out the first graph in this WUWT thread showing data from Levitus on the correlation between Barents Sea water temperatures and the AMO over the last century:

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/08/new-paper-barents-sea-temperature-correlated-to-the-amo-as-much-as-4%C2%B0c/

  31. ripshin says:

    June feels a lot cooler here in central Virginia than it used to…so I’m going with more ice: 7.75 MsqKM. “Today, I go for the gusto.”

    rip

  32. kwinterkorn says:

    Because the real concern is “global” warming (or its absence), perhaps in the future the predictions ought to be threefold:

    1. Arctic Sea Ice Minimum
    2. Antarctic Sea Ice Maximum
    3. Global Sea Ice Anomaly (against baseline of 1979-2014, or whatever is practical)

  33. phlogiston says:

    FergalR says:
    June 10, 2014 at 9:26 am
    Oldseadog;
    Triple distilled Irish Whiskey is far superior to the Scots’ peat-soaked crud as you well know.

    I was in Galway recently and discovered Paddys, truly a world class Irish whiskey. But the best Scottish malts deserve their global reputation also.

  34. Ben says:

    From the article: “The contest is to forecast the September monthly average Arctic sea ice extent (in million square kilometers).”

    Seems some may be predicting the Minimum, vs the 6.75 mm sq kms.

    The contest is for the Sept average, which is an amount above the minimum. That’s why the article mentions the NOAA number may be around 8 mm sq kms. Note in the bottom graph from NOAA, the Sept beginning number is about 7 mm and the Sept end number is about 9 mm. That’s the reason for the AVERAGE in Sept comment about 8 million. That would put the Sept Avg result near the 1980s, per the Red Line at the bottom of the trend chart.

    Probably no way to go back and change votes now, but it appears that some are predicting the low, not the Sept average. They are not providing the number the forecast contest has asked them to generate… if I am reading it correctly.

    Any clarifications are welcome.

  35. Jimbo says:

    Jim Hunt says:
    June 10, 2014 at 9:32 am………?

    Mr. Hunt thinks people aren’t aware of the tactics. If sea ice extent increases Warmists focus on volume. If volume increases they look somewhere else. ;-) They pretend that they were never concerned about extent yet forget their ice-free screaming over the years. It really is that bad.

  36. Nylo says:

    Ben is right. I at least have placed my bet as if it were for the minimum. I would add 0.5M to make it the September average.

  37. Gary Pearse says:

    TheLastDemocrat says:
    June 10, 2014 at 7:21 am

    ”None! You all can laugh at me now. But we will see who is laughing when I kayak ALL the way to the REAL North Pole in September. Whiskey or no, this is a GO!”

    Is this how the Last Democrat comes about?

    I went for 6.25. The 2m+ ice is about 7.5km^2 and in a normal year we basically lose 1m – 1.5m thick ice. There is even a small blob of ice on the SW shore of Lake Superior – surely a record in the satellite era
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/great-lakes-ice-page/

    and Hudson’s Bay still is covered and has some 3m ice on the west shore. The NW passage has some extensive 4m ice – no sailing this year and the DMI north of 80 temp is substantially below normal. I note the extent graphs are showing the curve bending up and close to crossing the last year’s line. We should close in on the climatology avg line after the steeper dip (skipping rope sag) after the end of June, cross it by the end of July and get into positive territory as. The thinning 2m+ ice starts should hold out as melting slows through mid August and levels off in mid September.

    An August storm would undo the forecast of course but I think this is unlikely in a cooling arctic.

  38. Steven Mosher says:

    https://sites.google.com/site/pettitclimategraphs/sea-ice-extent

    REPLY:IMHO, any graph that uses “death spiral” as part of the description should be ignored – Anthony

  39. mwhite says:

    My forecast is that both Harrabin and Shukman will not be reporting from an ICE FREE North Pole this year.

  40. dipchip says:

    My guess is 5.5: That is the highest Sept Avg number since 2006 Per this data.

    http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot_v2.csv

    My opinion is that we are now in a slow annual increase in Min ice cover over the next several years. Of course there will be large variations similar to the past 12 years.

    I have been collecting this data daily for the past 5 years I have the file for all old data thru Dec 31 2013. On 1 Jan 2014 there was an interruption in the daily data; then all the daily data was again posted thru Jan 15th 2014 on that date. The new file daily data for Sept 2013 was all adjusted to smaller numbers by about 200K to 275K sq Km. The March daily data was adjusted down in the range of 194K to 348K sq Km.. All of the daily data for all years was adjusted down.

  41. Latitude says:

    Joseph Bastardi says:
    June 10, 2014 at 8:49 am

    Lets remember that anything this year near normal is a huge win for those that have been preaching for years ( well before I) that its the AMO that is the major driver of arctic ice extent.
    ====
    I agree….sick and tired of all the PDPDOPDO crap….like it’s the only water that does anything

  42. Frederick Michael says:

    So far this year we’ve seen a slightly above average amount of sea ice exiting through the Fram Strait. (I call it the Arctic Strait Flush.) Last year was shockingly light in this regard and I suspect the main factor in the increase in the minimum sea ice extent.

    http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim365d.gif

    5.75

  43. goldminor says:

    Several months ago I had forecast the sea ice to come close to 6.0. That left me with a tough choice between 5.75 and 6.0. I went with 5.75. Although Arctic temperature is starting to look like it will set a new below average record for this year.

  44. Bryan A says:

    I cast my vote for 4.25 though I think it will be just slightly higher than that. There is likely to be another Polar Vortex this winter setteling deep cold over much of North America. However, this years vortex will be coupled with a moderate El-Nino that will bring increased winter precipitation (snow) that will cover an area greater than 80% of the lower 48 states and break many long standing records.

    Most snow in a single storm
    Deepest cover in a single season
    Largest area covered by snow (all 50 states with snow though not 100% coverage)

    This of course will be held up by Climate Scientists to the media as an example of the extremes brought about by Climate Change

  45. Resourceguy says:

    A side vote on insurance rate for shipping in the much-vaunted Northwest Passage, ice-free Arctic is also in order.

  46. Steven Mosher says:

    “REPLY:IMHO, any graph that uses “death spiral” as part of the description should be ignored – Anthony”

    True. But that not the chart folks need to look at.

    The chart that is interesting is the one that takes the current conditions and stitches the historical data to the end.

    So you see what the spread of history is and the boundary of past experience.

  47. Steven Mosher says:

    here.

    This is the chart.

    it is the third on the page.

    But interesting reaction. Instead of looking at everything, some people stop at the first thing
    they find objectionable.

    one of the lessons behind making cryptic comments is this.

    people choose to see what they want to see.

    we all do. thats good to know

    http://iwantsomeproof.com/extimg/sie_projections_from_current_date.png

    REPLY: The real lesson here is for you to learn to stop making incomplete crypto-comments and expecting other people to know what the heck you are talking about. Why haven’t you learned this yet. C’mon Steve you are a smart guy, start acting like one when you leave comments. – Anthony

  48. Mike Bentley says:

    Joseph,
    The autocorrect on your computer may be one problem for you – but seems to me some people like to “autocorrect” your climate statements as well. (SARC if I have to) Anyway, I enjoy your comments and the rest of you who are true climate observers (as opposed to scientists).

    Mike

  49. Latitude says:

    The chart that is interesting is the one that takes the current conditions and stitches the historical data to the end……and that sums up global warming science in a nut shell…..extending trends

  50. Ron C. says:

    Ben says:
    June 10, 2014 at 10:34 am

    Thanks for catching that. My estimates were based upon the Daily not the Monthly records. For the last 7 years, the Sept. Extents and Daily Min were:

    Year Sept Daily Min
    2013 5.35 5.08
    2012 3.63 3.37
    2011 4.63 4.33
    2010 4.93 4.60
    2009 5.39 5.05
    2008 4.73 4.58
    2007 4.3 4.16

    So the Sept. Average is about 0.255 higher.

    Base on my previous analysis of taking the melt % from the March max, I estimate a range of Sept. minimums for 2014:

    High 5.14

    Medium 4.54

    Low 3.29

  51. Billy Liar says:

    Steven Mosher says:
    June 10, 2014 at 1:00 pm

    Can you do the same chart for 2013, 2012, 2011, … with the outcome marked on each graph so we can see how good it is as an estimator?

  52. MrX says:

    How can it be anywhere above 5.5 million sq km? 6 or 7 looks like what people voted, but that’s crazy. I know we have a bit more multi-year ice now, but just one bad wind pattern and it’s all gone.

  53. Walter Allensworth says:

    6.8, but had to pick 6.75

  54. See - owe to Rich says:

    I’m with you, MrX. I went for 5.25, but I probably was thinking of minimum rather than mean, so maybe 5.5 is a better guess. I’d feel better about pushing up towards NOAA’s estimates if any details were given of their model. Thick ice has indeed increased, but there’s still plenty of 1m ice to disappear.

    Rich.

  55. It is not at all clear to me what Source evaluation is being asked in the poll?

    Is the September estimate to be from:
    * NOAA NWS/NCEP/CPC
    * National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC) – 15% or Greater?
    * IARC – JAXA
    * Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) – Centre for Ocean and Ice
    * Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center (NERSC) – Arctic Regional Ocean Observing System (ROOS)
    * NORSEX SSM/I (Nansen)
    * Cryosphere
    ???

  56. Phil. says:

    Stephen Rasey says:
    June 10, 2014 at 3:39 pm
    It is not at all clear to me what Source evaluation is being asked in the poll?

    It’s based on the September mean of the NSIDC sea ice extent.

  57. Steven Mosher says:

    The crypto comment served its purpose.
    What do people see when you show them an inkblot.
    Pretty simple.
    Surprised nobody figured out the purpose.

    REPLY: Oh please, stop playing games. – Anthony

  58. Pamela Gray says:

    Steven, it appears to me you are making the same mistake solar enthusiasts make. Let me explain. You are connecting increased CO2 to decreased Arctic ice, ascribing a cause without plausible mechanism so you must depend on wriggle watching. Solar enthusiasts do the same thing. The Earth warmed while someone said the Sun was active so the cause must be an active Sun. Now that the Sun is quiet, any cooling must also be caused by the Sun. Wriggle watching. Trouble is, the historical data was not as accurate as we thought. So now the solar enthusiasts will be left without their cause. I believe you will too.

  59. Richard M says:

    I doubt the minimum will be much different than last year for several reasons. First, it was a warm winter in the Arctic which means the ice did not thicken as much as it could have. Second, we still have lots of soot being emitted. Third, Russian river warmth is still going to impact the ice near them. Fourth, the geothermal impact off the northwest coast of Greenland appears to be strong. Finally, the warming due to the coming El Nino has already led to less ice on the Pacific side.

  60. SAMURAI says:

    Given the time difference between the US and Japan, I wasn’t able to vote…

    My prediction is 5.5 million KM^2.

    I think that the warmest Arctic temps this winter since DMI temp records started in 1958, lead to less ice being formed in the Arctic this winter, which will lead to rapid thawing this summer.

    This rapid thaw will lead to more open water in the Arctic and more Arctic ocean heat loss during the summer months, which will lead to a rapid ice recovery as witnessed in the fall of 2012 following the strong one-in-50-yr cyclone that tore up Arctic ice in the summer of 2012.

    With the 30-yr AMO warm cycle winding down and the PDO 30-yr cool cycle already in effect since 2005, Arctic sea ice will slowly begin to recover and CAGW’s ice-free Arctic prediction will be yet another prediction not supported by empirical evidence….

    This CAGW scam is starting to implode on a monthly basis. The CAGW advocates will get their 3-yr El Niño temp spike between now and 2016, but when the 2017 La Niña cycle occurs, the then 20+ year flat/falling trend will continue, which should pretty much put an end to the CAGW hypothesis by the end of 2018. The gigantic discrepancies between CAGW projections vs. reality will be too great to explain away.

  61. ren says:

    It is noteworthy that temperature anomalies in the Atlantic. This is of course result of the circulation. Cooling is explicit, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico. This will have consequences for the Gulf Stream.
    http://oi60.tinypic.com/i6a2d4.jpg

  62. Gareth Phillips says:

    FergalR
    Triple distilled Irish Whiskey is far superior to the Scots’ peat-soaked crud as you well know.

    And don’t forget Chwisgi, we do make it in Wales! Most of it is fine with a drop of water, but not the awful habit of some cultures dropping large chunks of ice into a fine malt. Save the stuff for the Arctic!

  63. roger says:

    phlogiston says:
    June 10, 2014 at 10:18 am

    I too saw that programme re the glass eel run on the Severn and agree completely with your post.
    Now we need to see a recovery in the Sea Trout populations of the UK which declined in tandem with the warming AMO and whose numbers appear to me to have reponded to recent short cooling periods.
    Certainly that seems to be the case as far as Herling are concerned.

  64. Angech says:

    The graph from Mr Pettit No 3 is labelled 2014 arctic sea ice extent projections based on 2003 – 2013 gains and losses. The one based on 2012 shows of course an even greater loss than 2012. It seems remarkable that the only input into the graphs is to take the starting point and then say run 2014 the same as year x with a probable 5% drop in all cases.
    That is not a very clever idea, possibly kindergarten level as there is no scientific input of current conditions whatsoever and with the only idea to push the possibility of a lower extent this year.
    For Steven to put up this simpleton graph shows the level of desperation he has sunk to. I have admired and do admire his ideas, intellect, arguments and input.
    However when other people put up this sort of rubbish as an argument he slaps them down pretty hard and asks them to think. I would ask him to think pretty hard about his use of this simpleton’s graph.
    Further to this Mr Pettit also has a couple of graphs up at the Arctic Sea Ice Blog. This site has run out of date graphs for the last 18 months to promote the idea of death spirals etc. Some have stayed stuck on 2012 to promote an erroneous idea of drastic cooling and low PIOMAS over the last 18 months. Mosher has praised the site on his visits in the past but obviously only reads the comments and does not look at the graphs.
    The death spiral graph is pretty interesting from another point of view. Mr Petit starts off with 3 decades but skips the forth one (why?). He puts the last 12 years in grey (hard to see) outlines 2014 then compares it to a sum of the last 4 years. This effect is designed to be misleading. Mosher knows this but he puts it up anyway.
    For a man of principles this is hitting below the belt, arguing with emotion not reason for once and I would like you to call him out on this and ask for an apology.
    I would expect one and a “better set of graphs ” if he wants to play this game in future.

  65. Mat says:

    hummmm….
    there had been more ice growth last year… but I would bet on 4.25 milions.
    mostly because some parts melt every year(no matter their thickness), and those that dont do have thinner thickness this year… so 4 to 4.25.

    my bet 4.25.
    But My heart want to see 2! ans 0 next year… but of course, climate doesnt change that fast, or else we would be extinct in 50 years.

  66. goldminor says:

    Mat says:
    June 11, 2014 at 11:21 am
    But My heart want to see 2! ans 0 next year
    —————————————————————-
    It’s like I told you. You need to keep sticking the pins into that voodoo map of the Arctic, which I sent you. It just takes time. Be patient, the pin pricks are cumulative, and you can take that to the bank.

  67. wobble says:

    Is it possible that NOAA made this prediction artificially high so that the September headlines can read “Arctic Ice Even Lower than NOAA Predicted!” ?

  68. ren says:

    You will not have to wait up to 5 years.
    “Ice extent was lower than average in the Barents and Bering seas. While not visible in the monthly average extent plot, the evolution of the sea ice through the month of May is characterized by the opening of several polynyas along the coast of Siberia, northern Baffin Bay, and along the coast
    of Hudson Bay. Nevertheless, satellites detected high sea ice concentrations over the Arctic as a whole.

    This contrasts with 2006, 2007, and 2012 when broad areas of low-concentration ice were observed.

    As the melt season is underway in the Arctic, freeze up is in progress in the Antarctic. Sea ice extent for May averaged 12.03 million square kilometers (4.64 million square miles). This is 1.24 million square kilometers (478,800 square miles) above the 1981 to 2010 average for the month. Antarctic sea ice for May 2014 currently ranks as the highest May extent in the satellite.”
    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

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