Due to the deadline being today, this will be a short poll that will close at 5PM PST today. Get your votes in.
First Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
June Report (Based on May data)
Submission deadline: Tuesday, 10 June 2014
Contact: Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Since 2008, the annual SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) has obtained over 300 community predictions of the September sea ice extent.
This year represents a transition for the SIO, as it is now managed as part of the Sea Ice Prediction Network project as a contribution to SEARCH. The goal of the SIO is to improve sea ice prediction on seasonal time-scales by developing a network of scientists and stakeholders to advance research on sea ice prediction. At a recent workshop and over the past few years, SIO contributors and users have offered many recommendations for expanding the SIO. Starting this year, the SIO reports will be responsive to these recommendations and will evolve to a more robust scientific tool. While keeping the same general structure for the SIO as before, it is time to encourage more model participation and expand the information provided from model activities.
For the June and July reports (using May and June data, respectively), we request pan-Arctic Outlooks. Later in the season (early August), while updates to pan-Arctic Outlooks will be welcome, we will primarily focus on regional forecasts. However, contributions for pan-Arctic and regional will be accepted during all periods.
We will also post a separate announcement calling for participants in a SIPN Action Team to work with us to further develop and steer the details of SIO reports as the season develops.
We encourage all past contributors to submit Outlooks this year and we also hope to see new participants.
The contest is to forecast the September monthly average Arctic sea ice extent (in million square kilometers).
For a primer, see the WUWT Sea Ice Reference Page
This year, a model forecast from NOAA CFSv2 says that we might see something well above 6.0 million square kilometers:
If they are right, that line from September to October would put the average somewhere around 8 million, with a minimum of about 6.7 and much earlier. I find that a bit hard to believe, since it would be a return to minimum sea ice values of the 1980’s:
OTOH, Arctic temperature is running below normal:
Mean Temperature above 80°N
So since the possible range this year is so wide, I’m limiting the poll to increments of 250,000 sq Km instead of the 100,000 used in previous years. Otherwise I’ll exceed the maximum number of poll questions.
POLL CLOSED AS DEADLINE IS TODAY
As I did last year, I will submit the weighted average value of the top 5 vote-getters.
UPDATE: The poll closed as we have the deadline looming, and here are the results of the weighted average, which totals over 50 percent of the votes:
A value of 6.12 million sq km will be sent to ARCUS.