Study links urbanization and future heat-related mortality
TEMPE, Ariz. – Phoenix stands at a parched crossroads. Global scale climate change is forecast to bring hotter summers and more extreme heat to the Valley, but regional urbanization also will impact temperatures experienced by residents.
So how should Phoenix grow knowing that such growth could cause temperatures to increase in the future and bring added health risks? Should the city deploy mitigating technologies to help fight summer’s heat? Would adopting a low-growth strategy reduce the adverse health consequences of hot weather?
New Arizona State University research examines the heat-health aspects resulting from urbanization and the challenge of sustainable future growth in Maricopa County. A study released this week shows how urban development could be a factor in the number of lives lost due to heat in future summers. The study is described in the article, “Challenges associated with projecting urbanization-induced heat-related mortality” published in the current online issue of the journal Science of the Total Environment.
“Extreme heat is the leading weather-related killer in the United States,” said David Hondula, a postdoctoral scholar in health informatics in ASU’s Center for Policy Informatics and lead author of the study. “In Maricopa County, we see more than 100 premature deaths and hundreds of excess emergency department visits as a result of high temperatures each summer. Understanding how different urban development strategies will impact the health risks associated with heat can help long-term planners and public officials make more informed decisions that lead to sustainable and healthy cities.”
In the research, the team tried to quantify the number of excess deaths attributed to heat in Maricopa County based on three future urbanization and adaptation scenarios and multiple exposure variables. Two scenarios (low and high growth projections) represent the maximum possible uncertainty range associated with urbanization in central Arizona; a third represents an adaptation strategy by simulating the deployment of white roof technology to the area.
The researchers – in addition to Hondula included Matei Georgescu and Robert C. Balling Jr., both of ASU’s School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning – related temperature to mortality using historical data from 1983 to 2007. Regional climate model simulations based on 2050-projected urbanization scenarios for Maricopa County generated distributions of temperature change, and from these changes in future excess heat-related mortality was estimated. They studied Maricopa County because it is a fast growing metropolitan area situated in a semi-arid region that experiences “chronic” heat during the summer months.
Overall, projections of heat related mortality ranged from a decrease of 46 deaths per year (-95 percent) to an increase of 339 deaths per year (+359 percent). Projections based on minimum temperature showed the greatest increase for all expansion and adaptation scenarios and were substantially higher than those for daily mean temperature. Projections based on maximum temperature were largely associated with declining mortality. Low growth and adaptation scenarios led to the smallest increase in predicted heat related mortality based on mean temperature projections.
Because of the environment in which it is built, increases in overnight minimum temperatures in Maricopa County associated with urbanization were found to be of much greater concern for health impacts compared to increases in daytime maximum temperatures. The same would be true in many other cities located in semi-arid regions.
“Future urbanization will lead to slightly lower summer daytime maximum temperatures in the urban core of Maricopa County compared to the surrounding natural landscape, because of the high heat retaining capacity of the built environment,” Matei Georgescu said. “Continued growth would enhance this effect in the future leading to further declines in daytime highs and associated declines in health risks. The tradeoff is that nighttime temperatures increase significantly with urbanization, and this nighttime warming is much greater than the expected daytime cooling.”
Hondula added that what this means for planners is that because heat impacts vary from day to night, projections of heat related health outcomes that do not consider place-based, time varying urban heat island effects are “neglecting essential elements for policy relevant decision-making.”
“The manner in which the Sun Corridor develops over the next several decades will impact the regional climate and, if no new adaptation measures are introduced, change the health risks for Maricopa County residents associated with extreme heat,” Hondula said. “The greatest health concern comes from large expected increases in nighttime temperatures which could be mitigated by lower-growth scenarios.”
“The next step is to look more closely at the conditions people experience on hot days, to ultimately determine if high maximum temperatures, minimum temperatures, or some combination of the two is the real culprit leading to adverse health events,” he added.
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I thought cold was the leading weather related cause of death. But I guess they do not fit the meme.
The only way to counter this probable outcome is to run around in small circles screaming, “Doomed, we’re all doomed!”
Good luck with that.
The NWS has the preliminary 2013 deaths caused due to weather in the US. These do not include weather related deaths, such as automobile crashes due to ice/snow.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats.shtml
How about this! A study that does not blame CO2 for heat-related deaths but names “urbanization” as the culprit. The global warmers will not like this one. No screeching about climate change, ghg forcing, none of that. Climatologists (97% of them 😉 ) will be gnashing their teeth at this study.
A little late telling Phoenix that urbanization will make things hotter and less healthy.
See http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats.shtml for stats from National Weather Service. Apparently 92 deaths in 2013 due to heat (below 10 year average), and 24 due to cold (marginally below 10 year average).
For some reason, this paper reminds me of that old joke:
Patient: “Doctor, it hurts when I do this.”
Doctor: “Then don’t do that.”
But Christopher C. Burt, weather historian of the Weather Underground says the UHI effect on temperatures is bogus. I’m soooo confused!
All the weather-related deaths together come to something like three or four hundred a year. This is approximately 0.03% of annual mortality. So completely trivial.
Compare England with about 9000 deaths attributed to cold (compared to our 24) in a much smaller population. We must be doing something right (Social Security?), or they are doing something extremely wrong.
Save the children!!…..from their asphalt-centric parents
In the 6 months I lived in Phoenix, the only effective way to deal with the heat was to stay indoors. The best way to deal with the heat in Maricopa County is: don’t go there.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/01/07/extreme-cold-kills-more-people-than-leukemia-homicide-and-liver-disease/
Just wait till they rely on wind turbines to power their air conditioning.
So it’s getting HOTTER, ea, when exactly will these records be broken?
Highest Recorded Temperatures
Below is a table of the highest recorded temperatures for each continent.
Place……….- Date -…….. Fahrenheit
North America (Death Valley), Calif., USA – July 10, 1913 – 134.0 F
Asia Tirat Tsvi, Israel – June 21, 1942 – 129.2 F
Africa1 Kebili, Tunisia – July 7, 1931 – 131.0 F
Australia Oodnadatta, South Australia – Jan. 2, 1960 – 123.0 F
Europe Athens, Greece – July 10, 1977 – 118.4 F
South America Rivadavia, Argentina – Dec. 11, 1905 – 120.0 F
Oceania Tuguegarao, Philippines – April 20, 1912 – 108.0 F
Antarctica Vanda Station, Scott Coast – Jan. 5, 1974 – 59.0 F
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/…
Phoenix has bigger, more certain, problems: water. That aquifer they’re pumping on won’t last forever, and everybody wants a piece of the rivers they’re using. Even if the climate stands still, they’re heading for trouble.
Somehow I suspect that the death of individuals from heat-related causes is not the top priority for urban planners in Phoenix. Rather, they ponder, “Can we continue to profit from building new developments here?” (despite inadequate supplies of water to support such communities).
In some rather backwards reasoning the author claims that building out cities in the desert will add to those cities’ UHI, and thus to the likelihood of more heat-related deaths. As though the cities themselves were the problem. I only know enough about central Arizona heat in summer to not want to go there in summer. Note that my reluctance is not limited to just Phoenix. I’m sure that there’s a whopping big UHI effect that contribues to heat so intense that Phoenix residents race between their cars and the safety of air-conditioned offices and homes, eschewing the touch of sun-drenched metal or stone. It can literally fry your fingers, as I recall very well from several trips there. But the problem isn’t the UHI. Rumor has it that there’s a harsh desert stretching beyond the Phoenix city limits, persisting despite of the greenery and golf courses within the city. We didn’t cause it.
It IS the sun, stupid.
http://cameron.kangaweb.com/jokes/Farside/desert.gif
RE:
As with the temperature records themselves (cherry picked, padded and “value-added” for effect), these records of cold- and heat-related causes of death remain highly questionable until the data used and criteria for cause of death fully explained. Til then, in my opinion, “heat-related deaths” remains fertile ground for more AGW distortion.
“Future urbanization will lead to slightly lower summer daytime maximum temperatures in the urban core of Maricopa County compared to the surrounding natural landscape, because of the high heat retaining capacity of the built environment,”
Is he insane? If heat is retained, temperatures rise.
Future urbanization will lead to slightly lower summer daytime maximum temperatures in the urban core of Maricopa County compared to the surrounding natural landscape, because of the high heat retaining capacity of the built environment,”
No one seems to mention that cities also have much higher albedo in the visible bands than vegetation (they show up as bright areas in Google Earth) which presumable makes them absorb less solar heat during the day. I’m not sure what the implications of that are – does it contribute to the days being slightly cooler?
Glenn: he means that if the pavement cools down overnight, it will take longer to heat up in the morning than, say, a tree. Because it has a higher thermal inertia.
Would think the biggest risk is not being able to afford to cool your dwelling. Unlike heating which can be done with a wide variety of options, Wood, Gas, Oil, electric, even solar if you build the house right, the only way to cool a house effectively requires electricity.
That being said, one square foot of steel at 40 deg C feels hotter than one square foot of wood at 40 deg C, because the steel holds more heat and is more eager than the wood to share it with your hand.
Yeah, it’s all those heat-related deaths that have the old folks fleeing to the poles in record numbers.
Michael D says:
June 2, 2014 at 11:05 am
Glenn: he means that if the pavement cools down overnight, it will take longer to heat up in the morning than, say, a tree. Because it has a higher thermal inertia.
That makes no sense, nor is it what he said. The pavement will cool down less overnight, and since it is hotter, will take less time to “heat up” in the morning, and will heat up the atmosphere more by thermal transfer(heat).
“An urban heat island (UHI) is a metropolitan area which is significantly warmer than its surrounding rural areas. The phenomenon was first investigated and described by Luke Howard in the 1810s, although he was not the one to name the phenomenon.[1] The temperature difference usually is larger at night than during the day, and is most apparent when winds are weak. Seasonally, UHI is seen during both summer and winter.
The main cause of the urban heat island is modification of the land surface by urban development which uses materials which effectively retain heat.
Waste heat generated by energy usage is a secondary contributor. As population centers grow they tend to modify a greater and greater area of land and have a corresponding increase in average temperature. The lesser-used term heat island refers to any area, populated or not, which is consistently hotter than the surrounding area.[2]”
http://www.princeton.edu/~achaney/tmve/wiki100k/docs/Urban_heat_island.html
The libertarian answer is that Phoenix should not grow, and if it does, at it’s own peril.
Native Americans left the Valley in summer for the higher, cooler, wetter Flagstaff region. This valley is tolerable for the invasive species ‘white man’ only because of electricity powered air conditioning from the 4 Corners coal plant located on a native American reservation, largest in the US, and fueled from their native American coal inked from their reservation. Obama wants that shut. No AC, no Phoenix. Will Obummer respect the remaining rights of native Americans, who are outside the reach of the EPA by treaty?. SCOTUS?
Bigger reason is water. Phoenix has little. It draws on the Colorado, and the Colorado is overdrawn. So to provide water to LA, SD, Phoenix, and Las Vegas, ‘all’ the agriculture in the Ca central valley and northcentral Arizona gets shut down first.
Let’s see, you can cook without AC (Obummer EPA solution), starve, or die of thirst. Ehrlich’s followers (like Holdren) might prefer all three simultaneously. Lib Dems might say, we will give you your liberal choice. If you like your AC, you can keep your AC until the power goes off. If you like your veggies, you can eat them until you cannot afford them. Sen. Reid probably says Phoenix goes before Las Vegas ( just like Yucca Mountain), and he has current control of the Senate.
Vote accordingly in November.
@Rud Istvan – Interesting point that I had not thought about! Right now, Native Americans are opening Casinos to make money. But they will find operating power plants much more lucrative, especially when states give them some incentives! And they will be out of the jurisdiction of the feds.
I see the Native Americans rising again! Take that pale face! 😉
And how many more deaths will result from the higher energy costs from the latest EPA rules ?
Far more than from “global warming” .
Are we creating more villages just to have more IDIOTS ?