Guest essay by Fred F. Mueller
On April 16th, 2014, a few quite remarkable statements were delivered during a discussion event at the premises of SMA Solar Technology AG, a leading German producer of photovoltaic panels and systems:
“The truth is that the Energy U-Turn (“Energiewende”, the German scheme aimed at pushing the “renewable” share of electricity production to 80 % by 2050) is about to fail”
“The truth is that under all aspects, we have underestimated the complexity of the “Energiewende”
“The noble aspiration of a decentralized energy supply, of self-sufficiency! This is of course utter madness”
“Anyway, most other countries in Europe think we are crazy”
Had this been one of the small albeit growing number of German “sceptics” casting doubt upon the XXL-sized politico-economical scam that has cost the German populace more than € 500 billion since its inception in 2000, it would not have gotten more than a footnote in the local press, crammed somewhere in between “horoscope” and “lost and found”. In fact, the media actually tried to keep a lid on the facts by giving them as little coverage as possible.
But the man at the speaker’s desk was Sigmar Gabriel, acting vice-chancellor of the German government, Secretary of Commerce with responsibility for the said „Energiewende” and chairman of the German social democrats (SPD), the second-largest political force in the country. Since December 2013, he is in charge of taming the runaway costs and growing security of supply risks that are unmasking the financial and technical nightmare of this ill-conceived project. In the past few months, he seems to have gotten some unpleasant insights causing him to admit the above-mentioned inconvenient truths when he was pushed too far by a number of aggressive lobbyists of the “renewable energy” sector. Gabriel, famous for his irascible temper that once already resulted in a heated verbal exchange with a top-dog TV journalist live on air, appears to have become quite candid when he vented his anger during the debate.
He must have realized his own political fate is in jeopardy because the task he has been assigned has conducted him into a situation that will inevitably result in failure. With respect to electric energy generation, Germany has painted itself into a corner. Since the introduction of the “Renewable Energy” law (EEG) in 2000 aimed at replacing coal and gas-fired as well as nuclear power generation by so-called renewable energy sources, the household price for electricity has jumped by more than 200 %. German customers now pay the second-highest electricity prices in Europe. At the same time, the task of stabilizing the grid against the massive erratic influx from solar and wind power plants that produce without regard for actual need has pushed the operators to their limits. Now already, with a combined share of just some 13 % of total electricity production, their unreliable input is massively imperiling the stability of the grid.
Conventional power plants – the most important units able to compensate these detrimental effects – are being pushed out of the market and shuttered at increasing rates. At the same time, Germany’s CO2 output has not diminished because coal-fired units have had to take over from closed nuclear plants. Costs are set to rise further on a ballistic path while security of supply is in free fall. At the same time, Gabriel is subjected to intense pressure from a number of factions of the “renewable” energy sector asking for ever greater slices of a cake that cannot be financed much longer. Together with inconvenient truths about feasibility limits given to him by his technical staff, this pressure seems to have risen to a level that pushed him to lecture his harassers when their clamors transgressed his tolerance limit.
This rare incident where a leading politician loses control of his words to such a degree shows that the “crash boom bang” path the German way of mishandling energy policies has indeed reached a threshold where said politicians feel cornered and unable to uphold their usual “muddling through” approach. Long-ignored financial and technical rules re-emerge and will force the German political class to abandon their “renewable” energy strategy centering on solar and wind power generation. Since the only low CO2 alternative – nuclear power – has been deviled by all political parties and the media beyond any chance of short-term oblivion, Germany will soon have to revert to coal for its power needs. And that in turn implies the country will have to abandon all aspirations to lower its CO2 emissions. German politicians might soon find out that demonizing CO2 is becoming a speedy path to ruining their career. And given the importance of the country within Europe and the pioneering role it claimed in the international crusade against climate change by limiting CO2 emissions, this might well herald the start of a paradigm shift of epochal dimensions in the whole climate change debate.
Original TV clips (in German):
http://www.1730live.de/sigmar-gabriel-nimmt-in-kassel-stellung-zur-energiewende/
http://www.hr-online.de/website/archiv/hessenschau/hessenschau.jsp?t=20140417&type=v
Germany, become sane again and go nuclear. Model yourself on a superior France.
This needs to be copy-edited:
“Since the only low CO2 alternative – nuclear power – has been deviled by all political parties and the media beyond any chance of short-term oblivion, . . . .”
E.g., change “oblivion” to “resuscitation”.
Guest essay by Fred F. Mueller
“German politicians might soon find out that demonizing CO2 is becoming a speedy path to ruining their career. And given the importance of the country within Europe and the pioneering role it claimed in the international crusade against climate change by limiting CO2 emissions, this might well herald the start of a paradigm shift of epochal dimensions in the whole climate change debate.”
Truth is catching up with the climate change meme. It’s about time.
Not only that, but German high court has declared that the govt illegally closed their units and also illegally collected 2.2 billion euros in fuel taxes from those plants that was never due. Govt must repay plant owners. Germans are cowards and cowards pay for their fears.
http://notrickszone.com/2014/04/27/angela-merkels-vice-chancellor-stuns-declares-germanys-energiewende-to-be-on-the-verge-of-failure/ has some quotes translated into English:
“The truth is that in all fields we under-estimated the complexity of the Energiewende.”
“Those who are the engines of the transformation to renewable energies, that’s you, you don’t see how close we are to the failure of the energy transformation.”
The mood at SMA Solar, which has been a huge benefactor of the renewable energy subsidies brought on by Germany’s EEG feed-in act, was somber and shock and Gabriel delivered the reality. Many in attendance seemed unable to fathom what Gabriel was unloading: the heady days at the green energy feeding trough are over – live with it.
“German politicians might soon find out that demonizing CO2 is becoming a speedy path to ruining their career.”
——————————–
A fascinating insight really – It is a clear case of blind faith – they really thought this was possible – to run their country on renewables. There was no analysis , just blind faith. And now it is all crumbling before their eyes , as is their political futures.
I feel this is also the case of your average alarmist – no analysis , just blind faith that CO2 is going to cause catastrophic warming. Likewise, there will no amount of logic skeptics can tell alarmists to move them from their faith – they will have to arrive at the conclusions from the tenants of their faith crumbling before their own eyes, such as these German politicians are having to deal with now.
The question is how long will it take & can skeptics keep the debate alive until that time.
I wish the Governor/Legislature of the People’s Republic of Vermont would pay attention to what is happening in Germany. Their goals for renewables, “90% of our energy needs from renewable sources by 2050.” according to the Comprehensive Energy Plan of 2011, is already costing us millions that we do not have. As a bonus, the “incentives” have increased our tax burden (formerly ridiculous headed toward insane) and thoroughly corrupted the renewable industry. All while our transportation infrastructure and local school systems go to pot.
Unfortunately, “utter madness” and “XXL-sized politico-economical scams” are their stock in trade.
“Germany’s CO2 output has not diminished because coal-fired units have had to take over from closed nuclear plants.”
—
It was announced in 2011 that Germany would shut down all 17 of its nuclear power stations by 2022. Chancellor Angela Merkel said the nuclear power phase-out would give Germany a competitive advantage in the renewable energy era, stating, “As the first big industrialized nation, we can achieve such a transformation toward efficient and renewable energies, with all the opportunities that brings for exports, developing new technologies and jobs”.
The move to wind and solar doesn’t appear to be going quite so smoothly as anticipated. With only 9 of 17 nuclear power plants now operating, is Germany still planning to shut down the rest by 2022? Trading nuclear for coal and adding additional coal-fired stations to backup unreliable renewable energy seems like a very expensive move. With the household price for electricity jumping by more than 200%, this hasty transformation toward renewable energies is turning out to be anything but “efficient.” How can Germany afford to keep bailing out bankrupt European nations, like Greece, if the cost of energy continues to skyrocket?
Now, if we can only get the same speech in DC….
While I do feel sorry for the poor consumers and struggling industries in Germany, I also see this as a shinning example of the utter foolishness of these green policies that are being pushed around the world without a thought for the consequences. Hopefully other countries are watching and learning from this madness.
Approaching a tipping point . . .
28 April: Fairfax Media Australia: Mandate on ethanol fuel costs drivers dearly: study
New South Wales’s E10 unleaded fuel mandate is a ”debacle” and is costing the state’s motorists millions, according to an international study.
The Texas Tech University research found motorists had a ”significant aversion” to the ethanol blended product.
With the push for E10 reducing the availability of regular grade unleaded, motorists had instead flocked to the more expensive premium petrol because of concerns about E10’s potential engine damage as well as fuel efficiency…
***Greens MP John Kaye said the mandate was not working for consumers or the environment.
”Motorists who had been using regular unleaded have been faced with the choice of a fuel they don’t want and a fuel that is much more expensive,” Dr Kaye said.
”While per litre it [the E10 price] looks better, you have to burn more of it to cover the same distance, and you get more air pollution and more CO2 emissions.
”There’s no evidence that requiring motorists to use ethanol blended fuels has any net greenhouse gas gain or much in the way of air quality improvement.”
http://www.drive.com.au/motor-news/mandate-on-ethanol-fuel-costs-drivers-dearly-study-20140427-37c6j.html
The German politicians were betrayed by their green-tainted science advisers.
As have been political leaders world wide.
Greens have misled the world for their own profit regarding energy, climate and environment for far too long.
Germany is already openly mocking green energy policy. The end game is near (h/t JoNova and James Delingpole):-
( http://joannenova.com.au/2014/04/long-live-satire-amen-germans-mock-their-green-faith/ )
/beyond/ the saturation point of renewable self delusion clouds:
You can see clearly now the rain has gone.
What a drag. Hans
It may be time to reflect on the wisdom of one of Germany’s earlier, now-reviled politicians.
“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.” — Josef Goebbels
It would seem that the State is no longer able to shield the people from the consequences of this particular set of lies. It would also seem that the situation is applicable around the globe, and not just a German phenomenon.
Eric Worrall says:
April 27, 2014 at 7:14 pm
A real side-splitter. More of that!
Regrettably, before the greenies and gullible politicians see sense we shall need incontrovertible proof of their incompetence and stupidity. That requires a couple of cold winters, rolling blackouts and tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths from cold.
Sigmar Gabriel obviously sees this coming, while the great unwashed, loony left keeps marching on uncaringly into an easily avoidable energy disaster.
No doubt other politicians in other countries (Oz in particular) will see this and claim that their scheme is different and will work.
In Australia under the previous “government” we had a creepy green, post GFC program of the government insulating houses as an eco-evangelical stimulus program.
It was a complete shemozzle. We imported hundreds of millions worth of insulation from China due to the massive demand spike, scammers flooded the sector taking their government fee then not insulating the houses, the established installers all had their businesses destroyed by the scammers, 100 or so houses burned down do to stapling through metallic insulation and then, to cap this fiasco off with perhaps inevitable tragedy, four young installers, kids really, untrained and poorly supervised, died. The program was eventually shut down without warning and the established businesses who had ordered stock were left high and dry. There is now a Royal Commission examining the whole thing.
The German eco-evangelical decarbonisation program makes us look like amateurs in monetray terms. I just hope that no deaths have ensued.
William: Germany is exporting solar energy at a loss to France and Czech. France and Czech cannot therefore rely on solar energy. The green scams do not work if the objective is to reduce CO2 emissions for whatever reason by 50% for all countries. Nuclear is the only solution. Germany has 2300 km of high voltage power lines that need to be constructed due to the intermittent power from the green scams. The cost of the 2300 km of high voltage power lines and new back up fossil fuel plants that are required has not been included in the green scam economics.
http://theenergycollective.com/willem-post/169521/wind-turbine-energy-capacity-less-estimated
“As a result of the existing RE build-outs, German household rates increased from 13.94 to 28.50 eurocent/kWh, from 2010 to 2012, a 104.4% increase, and industrial rates increased from 6.05 to 16.10 eurocent/kWh, from 2010 to 2012, a 166% increase. According to a recent study for the federal government, electricity will cost up to 40 eurocents/kWh by 2020, a 40% increase over 2012 prices.
Among european nations, German households have the second highest electric rates; 28.5 eurocent/kWh (energy, plus fees, plus taxes), after Denmark (32 eurocent/kWh), courtesy of RE. US low electric rates are the envy of heavy industry elsewhere, including Germany. France’s are among has the lowest.”
William: The average cost of power to US consumers is US $0.1057/kw-hr, a third of the cost of electric power in Germany. ($1 US = 0.75 Euro) http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/end_use.cfm
Note the phony solar economics and wind farm calculation which is quoted in other comments in this thread is based on peak noon solar energy generated on a cloudless day and optimum wind speed, not realistic 24/7 solar and wind farm.
Germany’s Solar Energy: About 22,000 MW of Germany’s 32,800 MW of PV solar systems (end 2012) are in South Germany. (William: Note quoted solar capacity is noon, cloudless day, not 24/7 realistic calculation) On a sunny summer day, from an output of about 0 MW at 6 AM, the PV solar output increases to about 16,000 MW at about noon, and back down to about 0 MW at 6 PM. As this would create major disturbances on the grid and, as PV solar panels cannot be turned off, Germany has to export part of the PV solar energy from about 10 AM to about 2 PM.
Brad says:
April 27, 2014 at 6:56 pm
Now, if we can only get the same speech in DC….
Amen, although there are quite a few sensible politicians in the House that bear the constant demagoguery and wrath from the nasty politicians who call them flat earthers and other terms. I was called that Friday night by a committed Democrat. Of course we are fighting a compliant MSM and University system when it comes to Global Warming and climate change.
Note the similarly of the current tactics from those of the past history as posted by skeptical Lefty
“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.” — Josef Goebbels
“It would seem that the State is no longer able to shield the people from the consequences of this particular set of lies. It would also seem that the situation is applicable around the globe, and not just a German phenomenon.”
Well said
Well, some country (and possibly several) will have to “green” itself into catastrophe before the rest will learn their lesson. Might as well be Germany. More likely it’ll be the People’s Republik of Kalifornia.
Well said William Astley according to this http://www.oecd-nea.org/pub/egc/docs/exec-summary-ENG.pdf OECD report Nuclear Energy is already the cheapest way of producing electricity. It is set to become even cheaper as an outcome of research in China and India (and probably also in Russia) into the use of Thorium fuels.
This is a wake up call for all countries with renewable policies for energy substitution. Germany is one of the two or three most technologically savvy countries in the world. Its engineering abilities are unsurpassed. It has a compliant population. If Germany can’t do it any country that is not blessed with huge hydro electric resources (60 to 70 per cent of total generation) must think again.