UPDATE: 114 mph wind gusts reported. See below.
March came in like a lion, and it looks like the lion isn’t leaving, but you can’t blame the “polar vortex” this time.
As a massive winter storm at sea known as a Nor’easter prepares to skirts the Northeast coast of the USA, bringing with it high seas and bitterly cold weather in its wake, Dr. Ryan Maue writes:
Massive Nor’easter will develop a warm-core thru a seclusion process.
Compare previous image w/Hurricane Sandy– same 850-mb Wind speed & MSLP. Nor’easter wind field much stronger/larger.
[It is] maybe 4 times more powerful than Sandy based on integrated KE of wind field.
The image of the storm is quite stunning for it’s sheer size. Images and animation follow.
Compare that to these satellite photos of Hurricane Sandy:
Watch this animation of the storm as it is forecast to develop, click it to get it to animate full size.
The biggest difference here is the track, Sandy made landfall in NYC, this nor’easter is not expected to there, but will skirt the coast and will make landfall later in Newfoundland, But, it will have a significant effect on the northeast USA due to its ability to transport air mass.
He adds:
Not the
#polarvortex this time. Textbook tropopause fold & baroclinic wrapup
What that will do is act like a pump, and pull bitterly cold air in behind it (note the stream in the rendering above). The result will be a late March like no other, possibly the coldest late March on record for the area:
The National Weather Service in Boston is preparing for blizzard like conditions in some areas, plus hurricane force winds at sea.
They are even asking readers to “make the call” on snow amounts.
UPDATE: 4:10PM PDT 3/26/14 While Jai Mitchell tries (unsuccessfully) to argue in comments that there’s no comparison to Hurricane Sandy, we get reports like this one from Environment Canada with 114 mph wind gusts and sustained winds of 86 mph:
In like a lion, out like a lion pack….
Jo Nova found a good video of what its like in Canada thsi winter, and for good measure, the skit takes a shot at Environment Canada, who has a forecast record that equals that of the Met Office.
But oh lord, spring is taking its sweet time arriving this year….
This WILL be blamed on global warming!
Well I wouldn’t worry about it. On Average, tropical storm Sandy, really didn’t do much damage, unless you cherry pick data from when it was near the USA. The rest of its life, it just made some waves out in the ocean.
So this new mega-nor-easter, will do about the same (on average) so it will be another much ado about nothing.
But if it comes your way, well take appropriate precautions, because the instantaneous power
P = dE / dt can be a whole lot higher, than the average E/t for the complete life cycle of the event.
But MikeB won’t understand why that is.
March came in like a lion and is leaving like a polar bear.
What I like most about those pictures are the nice, clear, warm skies over Texas.
Tropopause fold and baroclinic wrapup….
Can’t wait to try that on the wifey later on!
Polar vortex at 17 km.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/29/1800Z/wind/isobaric/70hPa/orthographic=-16.89,85.68,481
Les Johnson says
Les – maybe a lion pride?
I hope the snow n ice, plus melts, do not do in the East what they did last weekend in the west – a dozen dead, more missing from a BIG landslide.
Pray this system stays to the east and does not track further west.
1816 again? Year without a summer?
here is the comparable sandy image
http://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_606w/WashingtonPost/Content/Blogs/capital-weather-gang/201210/images/weatherbell-euro-102400.jpg?uuid=FWyTYh3rEeKc1bVcODiJYg
note that the isobars are in 4mb decriments, not 3 as the one above.
What is not even comparable is the fact that the westward portion of the sandy storm maintained its cyclonic gradient instead of being fed from the northwest as this current storm will be.
This effectively doubles the area of the windfield and quadruples the energy associated with the storm, so, no sandy was still more energetic.
For comparison, look at how lake Michigan waves react to this storm (it will be minimal) compared to sandy (30 foot waves on the Chicago waterfront).
OT
Those within the Enviromental/Indistrial Complex will go wild with this weather event calling it more evidence of global warming (climate change). Could someone with historically accurate data post other Nor’easter events equal to or greater than this one so we can have some ammunition to reply to their hype?
Jimbo says:
March 25, 2014 at 1:39 pm
>>>>>
There, you doubters – it was worth buying the Met Office that fancy computer after all!
Here in NH, temps have been running about 15-20 deg.F below the average lately, and this March may go in the record books as the coldest. Looking ahead though, there is a slight warming trend coming later in the week up to a “minus 2” over the weekend, and – gasp- a whopping “plus 3” next Monday before sliding back down again.
Other than CA, this is the heart of climate change religious fanatics. Another good dose of reality is in order there. Let them grasp at frozen straws to explain it.
Nova Scotia got the memo
http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/report_e.html?ns5
Stop Global Nor’easter Warming, ban ManBearPig from Boston to Province areas.
Wws, those skys look kind of green on the map. Is it raining frogs ouside your window?
So I guess the weather channel will name this one Danny. as in Zuko….
Oops
http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=ns
@Jimbo… I think the Met Office supercomputer has a severe case of malware infection, likely caused by their scientists surfing too many dodgy websites all day long. 😉
I thought this site was about climate.
All they do here is talk about the weather.
It appears that the eastern USA is repeating the events of 1977. I just happened to come across this paper http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0493%281978%29106%3C0279%3AMCOTNA%3E2.0.CO%3B2 that describes extreme cold in the East and drought in the NW USA. Back then it was blamed mainly on El Nino and extremely cold SSTs. What is the reason this time around?
I know this is small comfort to those about to hammered by this latest manifestation of “Global Warming” but I have pictures of my family in 1970 in our Easter outfits standing in about 2 to 3 inches of snow. This was in Northern Kentucky.
Weather happens.
Jimbo says:
March 25, 2014 at 1:39 pm
Somebody at the Guardian clearly screwed up. That article wasn’t supposed to be released until NEXT Tuesday.
===========================================================
That’s because the problem is those who claim to be able to do something about it.
“March came in like a lion”
More like a polar bear this year. And that polar bear isn’t in a hurry to go anywhere.
I live in SE Wisconsin. I woke up this morning to a temp of 23 degrees F and a fresh layer of snow.
Sandy was not a hurricane. Maximum sustained wind speeds were never over 25 meters per second. Several offshore buoys showed about the same data points. Recorded speeds at land stations were about 20 meters per second at most.
Wind damage was consistent with tropical storm. Here is a chart of the wind speeds at one of the offshore buoys where the highest winds speeds were recorded. Buoys outside NY harbor and Long Island show about the same speeds. The hurricane threshold is sustained speeds of 33 meters per second.
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/met.html?id=8536110&timezone=GMT&units=metric&bdate=20121028&edate=20121031
And to think it was old Ben Franklin who first deduced the true nature of Nor’easters, which have been happening forever. We could sure use a few more of his type (lightning is electricity, bifocals, better wood burning stoves, a Constitution that the present administration apparently disdains…)
rather than decline hiding Manns, conspiracy ideationist Lews, and heat hiding Trenberths.
Ever wonder what the Poor Farmer’s Almanac would have thought about CAGW? Poor Richard knew there were plenty of weather calamities, but that adaptation (a stitch in time saves nine), prudence (a penny saved is a penny earned), and a bit of perseverance (spring reliably follows winter) served well. They still do.
I’ve got a pen. And I’ve got a phone. And I’m gonna’ use them. “Hello weather service…”
I’d say now is a good time to take that Tesla out for a spin on the East Coast. Let’s see what it’s made outta’.
Can you hear the calls for world communism howling in the distance?
re: jai mitchell says March 25, 2014 at 1:37 pm
…. For comparison, look at how lake Michigan waves react to this storm (it will be minimal) compared to sandy (30 foot waves on the Chicago waterfront).
30 foot waves on the waterfront? Chicago would be flooded … YOU MUST MEAN 30 foot breakers (a ‘wave’ impacting a breakwater or shallow ‘draft’ water yields brief heights of perhaps near 30 feet).
Do you know the difference?
Google images: 30 foot waves on the Chicago waterfront
.
Hurricane Sandy’s Winds Hit Lake Michigan
.
Looks like Jolly Ol’ Al Gore is up to his tricks again.
If ya can’t win one way, well, you just gotta do it another way.
I’m old enough to remember this, back in the good ol’ days of CAGC.
jai mitchell says:
Not so fast
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2012/h2012_Sandy.html
We had some watches up around western Lake Ontario. It was a breeze.
April fools day blizzard in boston 1997…26″of snow
patiently sitting here in Nova Scotia waiting for 50+ cm of snow – snow blower at the ready
jai mitchell says:
March 25, 2014 at 1:37 pm
“This effectively doubles the area of the windfield and quadruples the energy associated with the storm, so, no sandy was still more energetic. ”
What? That cannot be. There’s more CO2 now.
If the anti-Keystone Clowns are still tied to the WH fence, then PLEASE, PLEASE unleash the storm’s fury on DC. Preferably 3 ft of snow, -25F temps and gale force winds.
I blame el nino.
================================================================
They’d just spin it faster than “snow devil”.
“if you ever want to be warm again we must stop Global Warming NOW!”.
supposed to be 50mph winds and about 8-10 IN of snow tomorrow here in Maine.
its just another spring storm to me.
Looks like it’s tracking East of the earlier European model forecast. We’ll just get a few windblown inches here in Boston. Antigonish, NS, sorry, you’re toast! Please try to dig out before the Highland Games, so the caber doesn’t get stuck in the snow.
Quick, get Al Gore out of Nova Scotia or the whole thing’s gonna blow. Oh, he’s on vacation in Florida? Quick, get Al Gore away from those orange trees…
Here is a reference to a Nor’easter that if it hit today would have done more damage than Sandy because of costal build up over the years. As it was it still caused very wide spread damage and loss of life. I have never seen it mentioned alongside Sandy although it hit some of the same area like Long Beach Island N.J. Selective memory?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ash_Wednesday_Storm_of_1962
Thanks Dr. Maue. Good forecast of bad news.
Jim, at 0:43 in your reference the surfer is standing and from my point of view as an old surfer, those are 4 to 5 foot wind-driven waves breaking on a shallow sandy beach.
I always like to check the weather warnings for the appropriately named Wreckhouse area of Newfoundland:
160 km/h = 100 mph
180 km/h = 110 mph
Well blow me down!!
jai said “For comparison, look at how lake Michigan waves react to this storm”
That will be pretty tough to look at since most of Lake Michigan is frozen.
It’s called climate change not weather change. These long winters and late springs are becoming a pattern, that’s what people are afraid of. Saying that one time 20 years ago there was a blizzard in April doesn’t mean anything.
I feel like a kid in a car on a long trip 🙁
Are we done with winter yet? Are we done with winter yet? Are we done with winter yet? Are we done with winter yet? Are we done with winter yet? Are we done with winter yet? Are we done with winter yet? Are we done with winter yet? Are we done with winter yet? Are we done with winter yet?
http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2012/10/33-foot_waves_could_roil_lake.html
Forecasters in the latter city already are warning of coastal flooding from what could be 33-foot waves off the city and wind gusts near 60 mph.
Such high winds also are expected to buffet cities both along the Lake Michigan shoreline and inland, though waves will not likely be as high as 33 feet.
Still, waves could build to 20 or more feet off Benton Harbor, Mich., and still reach up to 13 feet from Holland north, forecasters said.
Winds along that stretch could hit 46 mph or more overnight into Tuesday.
“Sandy will move over the coast, over the mid-Atlantic states this evening or tonight,” Marino said.
will this low pressure make it across the North Atlantic to clobber the UK and N Europe?
It’s “only” the polar vortex.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_z100_nh_f00.gif
The current temperature in the area of the polar vortex.
http://oi59.tinypic.com/1oo9jb.jpg
@Jimbo
Guardian – 25 March 2014
Climate change will make UK weather too wet and too dry, says Met Office
The UK’s weather will become both too wet and too dry – and also too cold and too hot – as climate change increases the frequency of extreme events, the Met Office has warned in a new report.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/25/climate-change-uk-weather-wet-dry-met-office
Thanks , they got it spot on, (NOT) and as usual a great CYA ! I wonder how long (or short) these people went to universities and/or what curriculum they took to make those statements!
I am getting more sure they went to a Internet $10 dollar certificate hand-out, although that even amazes me. (That fact they had the wherewithal and the attention span to even manage that!
This bad boy has formed according to forecasts. Check out the current wind map. Impressive!
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-77.84,44.76,675
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@ ren
This is not a polar vortex. I believe it is commonly called a ‘Noreaster
Wow CNC, that Ash Wednesday storm sounds unbelievable. How does it actually compare to sandy I wonder in terms of conditions on-shore?
Wasn’t sandy an extra tropical when it made landfall. And wasn’t it bloomberg’s incompetence that made it worse.?
jai said “For comparison, look at how lake Michigan waves react to this storm”
Good ole Jai. You can rely on the warmies to make themselves look stupid.
How far behind normal, will Canada’s agriculture be this year? Can it recover, and grow a decent crop if the summer is good?
Got a late March snow in the Virginia blue ridge yesterday. And it snowed on me on the way to work today too. Somebody find me a groundhog to sacrifice…
Here is the actual wind field differences between this storm and Sandy
this storm
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/26/0900Z/wind/surface/level/equirectangular=-96.36,44.28,879
Sandy
http://hint.fm/wind/gallery/oct-29.js.html
so, yeah, not comparable really.
REPLY: I know it is very important to you to think the overhyped storm Sandy was more powerful so that it assuages your belief system about CAGW, but your comparison of these two maps is invalid. Sandy made landfall on October 29th as depicted on the .FM map. The Nor’easter has not. So of course the windfields will look different since the center of the wind field is out to sea for the Nor’easter.
I’m not impressed with your pleading, and I doubt anyone else is either.
But, don’t worry, another storm will come along someday that you can hold up as poster child for CAGW. – Anthony
Steve Oregon says:
March 25, 2014 at 7:44 pm
That will be pretty tough to look at since most of Lake Michigan is frozen.
yeah, not so much
http://iceweb1.cis.ec.gc.ca/Prod20/page3.xhtml
Lets Blame it on Russia…. Note the dateline, 20 May 2010.
New Little Ice Age ‘to Begin in 2014’
Russian scientist to alarmists: ‘Sun heats Earth!’
20 May 10 – CHICAGO – Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of space research at Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in St. Petersburg, Russia, predicts that a new “Little Ice Age” could begin in just four years.
http://www.iceagenow.com/New_Little_Ice_Age_to_Begin_in_2014.htm
Dell from Michigan says:
March 26, 2014 at 8:24 am
Lets Blame it on Russia…. Note the dateline, 20 May 2010.
New Little Ice Age ‘to Begin in 2014′
———————————————————————
Thanks for this Dell.
Mod,
Sandy made landfall on October 29th as depicted on the .FM map. The Nor’easter has not
the difference in latitudes for the storm center are the same in both pictures. The difference in longitude is 6.6 degrees more westward. (at 38.5 north) or roughly 220 miles. at sandy’s landfall in Chicago there were north winds at sustained 35 mph and gusting to 65 mph. Comparable locations today would be Cleveland OH, (11 mph) or at the very worst, Buffalo New York (16mph)
reference: http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/The-312/October-2012/Hurricane-Sandy-Five-Ways-of-Looking-at-the-Wind-in-Chicago/
so, yes again, the eastern portion of Sandy was twice as strong as this nor’easter and stretched considerably longer. This is because Sandy was an extropical cyclone while this storm is a classic no’reaster.
You also said, But, don’t worry, another storm will come along someday that you can hold up as poster child for CAGW
This single statement will soon become the historical proof of your entire movement’s folly.
[lol! Hopefully you’ll find a job soon. -mod]
joe says:
March 25, 2014 at 8:29 pm
“It’s called climate change not weather change. These long winters and late springs are becoming a pattern, that’s what people are afraid of. Saying that one time 20 years ago there was a blizzard in April doesn’t mean anything.”
Saying that there was a late March Blizzard in 2014 doesn’t amount to Klimate Change. The only “pattern” is one >with< fairly regular, if widely-spaced, OUTLIERS.
You didn't think much before you fired that one off, did you?
jai mitchell says:
March 26, 2014 at 9:33 am
Hey, Jai! Currently 28 degrees F in Chicago & progressively colder the farther north you go (23 to 17 along the lakeshore).
http://www.upnorthlive.com/weather/#
Tell us about the liquid water waves on ice-covered Lake Michigan again, please.
Jai sez:
“This single statement will soon become the historical proof of your entire movement’s folly.”
“Movement” ? Oh, that is rich! Have you ever considered the Zoo, where, perhaps, the animals think they are on the outside looking in?
Probably not.
TeeWee says March 25, 2014 at 1:44 pm
Those within the Enviromental/Indistrial Complex will go wild with this weather event calling it more evidence of global warming (climate change). Could someone with historically accurate data post other Nor’easter events equal to or greater than this one so we can have some ammunition to reply to their hype?
This site has a lot of information from someone with a Bachelor of Science degree in Meteorology and Oceanography.
Go to site map and scroll down to Late Season Storms.
https://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/doctor.htm
In 1980, or 1981 (can’t recall which) we got a devastating Ice Storm 20 miles west of Boston. The date was >>>>>> MAY TENTH! I remember it, vividly – must have been a precursor of Klimate Kooling.
Outliers define the boundaries of ‘normal’ & nothing more?
jai,
So I see there has been recent Lake Michigan ice melt from this earlier extent.
.http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/03/10/lake-michigan-sets-41-year-record-for-most-ice-cover/
I was looking at this live image yesterday on the Michigan side of the lake when I posted.
http://surfgrandhaven.com/cms/
@Bruce Cobb: “Here in NH, temps have been running about 15-20 deg.F below the average lately, and this March may go in the record books as the coldest.”
Temps in general have been running well below average in NH all winter. The ice on Lake Winnipesaukee is the thickest it’s been in years, in some places well over a meter thick. The ice cover is complete, from shore to shore, something that rarely happens.
Ice Out, the time when one of the cruise boats can make all five ports of call on the lake, is expected to be quite late this year, some time in May.
@Tom J –
Wanna find out what that Tesla is made of? How ’bout taxpayer subsidies, paid by ordinary folk so that billionaires can get bargain prices on useless toys . . .
@richard Day –
Yeah, a handful of fanatics count for more than the national interest. I hope they DO get their asses frozen off. And while we’re at it, let each state pass a law making it illegal for energy opponents to use any . . .
Note that the 114 mph gusts are in Wreckhouse, NL, which is in the middle of a natural wind tunnel. Gusts of ~100 mph are not unusual during a powerful Nor’easter. Here’s a video of Blizzard conditions from Feb 2011:
Well, did not know about Wreckhouse before, always enjoy learning about the crazy things a bit of properly placed geography can do when the winds line up right… or wrong, from the point of view of an 18 wheeler having trouble keeping more than half of them on the ground.
Not sure where to post this, but weren’t these storms worse than “Hurricane Sandy”?:
10. According to New York City’s Office of Emergency Management, the last hurricane to pass directly over the city was in 1821. The storm surge was so high that the city was flooded up to Canal Street.
11. Hog Island, a one-mile-long island south of Rockaway Beach, was never seen again after the hurricane of 1893.
12. New York City’s leading hurricane historian, Nicholas Coch, a professor of coastal geology at Queens College, believes that this is the only reported incidence ever of the removal of an entire island by a hurricane.
Got this from my niece, a CBS NYC journalist, from this source with other NYC “facts”.:
http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/60-facts-that-will-make-nyc-feel-like-a-whole-new-place
One other thing about the 1821 NYC hurricane from Wackapedia:
“…one hurricane researcher remarked that the storm surge flooding would have been much worse, had the hurricane not struck at low tide…”
One other thing Mr Al Gore – Hurricane Sandy wouldn’t have been so bad had it not been for the spring tide…so it wasn’t the CO_2…
Do you think Al Gore reads this blog??
And just across the Cabot Strait from Wreckhouse comes this footage from another windy spot in Nova Scotia during yesterdays storm. The 100mph gusts were a little much for The Weather Network’s reporters:
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/live-on-tv-winds-knocks-reporters-out-of-frame/23972/
Here was yesterday’s warnings from the NWS’s Ocean Prediction Center:
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
235 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2014
…
.WARNINGS…PRELIMINARY.
.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS…
.ANZ081…GULF OF MAINE… HURRICANE FORCE TODAY. STORM TONIGHT.
GALE THU.
.ANZ082…GEORGES BANK… HURRICANE FORCE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
GALE THU.
.ANZ083…SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND… HURRICANE FORCE TODAY. STORM
TONIGHT. GALE THU.