In a joint press conference NOAA and NASA have just released data for the global surface temperature for 2013. In summary they both show that the ‘pause’ in global surface temperature that began in 1997, according to some estimates, continues. Statistically speaking there has been no trend in global temperatures over this period. Given that the IPCC estimates that the average decadal increase in global surface temperature is 0.2 deg C, the world is now 0.3 deg C cooler than it should have been. –David Whitehouse, The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 21 January 2014
See the table below:
![NOAA-Table[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/noaa-table1.jpg?quality=83)
The Sun’s activity has plummeted to a century low, baffling scientists and possibly heralding a new mini-Ice Age. “I’ve been a solar physicist for 30 years, and I’ve never seen anything quite like this,” Richard Harrison, head of space physics at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory in Oxfordshire, told the BBC. The lull is particularly surprising because the Sun has reached its solar maximum, the point in its 11-year cycle where activity is at its peak. —News.com Australia, 19 January 2014
The history of science shows us that sometimes sceptics are right and move from the fringe to the mainstream. It also tells us that some travel in the opposite direction. The “pause” is something to be explained, and not dismissed as a “myth.” It is perhaps no surprise that climate scientists are at different stages in their study of its significance and importance. Sadly it is also unsurprising that some media outlets chose to concentrate on only one strand of opinion concerning it. –David Whitehouse, The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 22 January 2014
Just when those computer programs predicted carbon dioxide-driven temperatures going orbital and sea levels flooding Capitol Hill, something went terribly wrong. Global temperatures went flat, and have stayed that way now since the time most of today’s high school students were born. If you thought global warming was scary, here’s an alternative to consider. Some really smart scientists predict that Planet Earth is now entering a very deep and prolonged cooling period attributable to 100-year record low numbers of sunspots. –Larry Bell, Forbes, 21 January 2014
The European Commission has finally begun rolling back the EU’s ruinous climate and green energy policies. The roll-back is in part an acknowledgement that Europe’s green agenda has been an unmitigated fiasco, causing skyrocketing energy prices across Europe and harming competitiveness. But the old guard of commissioners are trying to salvage a green legacy before they are replaced in the autumn by a set of commissioners more concerned about Europe’s economic future. A more significant retreat from unilateral climate policies is likely to gather speed, and the proposed targets may not survive. –Benny Peiser, City A.M., 23 January 2014
The exact link between global warming and flooding is much less certain, and those who keep pursuing the topic are taking attention away from the true problem of over-development, a group of eminent scientists say in a research paper. David Cameron ignited a row at the height of the recent UK floods by proclaiming that he ‘very much’ suspected the devastation had been caused by climate change. Environment Secretary Owen Paterson refused to endorse the Prime Minister’s views and the Met Office said there was no evidence that the winter floods had been caused by man-made global warming. –Ben Spencer, Daily Mail, 22 January 2014
See, this is why politicians need some scientific trainiing.
On the one hand there are observations that need explaining and theories that are currently inadequate for the purpose.
On the other there is a man with a hunch who “very much” suspects that the science is settled enough for him, thank you.
Personally, I really want that guy to be nowhere near any position of power.
Thanks A., good article.
Whatever the cause is for the stop of global warming, it must be less potent than the natural causes that did it.
And the global temperature “pause” goes on, and on ….
Will the White House and the UN IPCC pay attention to NOAA/NASA? CAGW politicians and scientists face a powerful reckoning: the cause of the pause was also the cause before the pause.
David Whitehouse points out that the ‘pause’ in global surface temperatures is real and has become the biggest problem in climate science, and adds that it was so-called sceptics that first pointed it out. Initially they were dismissed and ridiculed for so doing. Now they have been proven correct it is they who have shown the true spirit of science in the face of mean-spirited publicity driven wannabe celebrity scientists, advocates and many so called science journalists.
It is time for them to acknowledge their contribution. If a climate scientist had made such a discovery they would be being given medals and awards by now. That those who pointed out the ‘standstill’ have not speaks of double standards within the scientific community and a lack of integrity.
It shows that in the age of the internet you don’t have to be employed by the university of wherever to have made a contribution to climate science. In this case an enormous contribution
Model invalidation with forecast error can be a hateful, mean bully at times. We need Einstein, Keynes, and Feynman to strongly proclaim it science process in action. But there are no such giants to stand up for this today.
I just saw the NASA press release which makes it clear that warming continues, and wondered what this site would say about it.
Surprise, surprise, Watts claims that it says the opposite. How about going to the source instead of a shill?
http://www.nasa.gov/press/2014/january/nasa-finds-2013-sustained-long-term-climate-warming-trend/#.UuFDo2TTk19
REPLY: Apparently you can’t source, note that these are the words of the GWPF newsletter, not mine, for a more detailed look see: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/23/also-rans-ncdc-and-giss-global-surface-temperatures-finish-4th-and-7th-for-2013/
– Anthony
Just curious…. what caused the “pause” in the rise from ’51-’80, the 30 years they use as the average? Is it the same mechanism that’s causing this now?
M Courtney says:
January 23, 2014 at 8:08 am
“See, this is why politicians need some scientific trainiing.
On the one hand there are observations that need explaining and theories that are currently inadequate for the purpose.
On the other there is a man with a hunch who “very much” suspects that the science is settled enough for him, thank you.
Personally, I really want that guy to be nowhere near any position of power.”
The reality is that the entire political establishment including the top civil servants running the different departments have been brainwashed with IPCC BS attending special programs organized by a.o Met Office in cooperation with the Greens. These are the same programs that were joined by the BBC staff.
They already believe they are climate experts. That ‘s why you see Merkel telling with confidence that she personally will keep the average temperature within a margin of 2 degree Celsius.
This was after she went to Greenland to watch the summer ice melt.
The only way out is to replace the entire establishment.
So the difference between the warmest and 10th warmest year in the “record” is 0.16 degrees F? And the proof that they can make worldwide annual temperature measurements with that accuracy is? And the margin of error for worldwide temperature measurements in 1930 is? and 1880? Did none of these people receive scientific training?
Can you please fix the first chart (with the “angry red” divergence) so it embiggens when you click on it , as usual? Thanks!
VoiceInTheWilderness says: @ur momisugly January 23, 2014 at 8:33 am
I just saw the NASA press release which makes it clear that warming continues, ….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Thank you for bringing to our attention that NASA continues to LIE. :>)
BBC news: Global warming pause ‘central’ to IPCC climate report
From the Met office:
Am I correct that NASA and NOAA is reporting that there has been essentially ZERO increase in CONUS temperatures for over 120 years? If you add a straight line to their slide 10, isn’t it essentially flat since 1890?
Just askin….
http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/NOAA_NASA_2013_Global_Temperatures_Joint_Briefing.pdf
2013 was only the forth warmest year? If carbon dioxide is the critical factor in global warming and carbon dioxide in the air rising each year, shouldn’t each year then be the hottest year on record?
I saw the climate scientists have determined that the cold weather I had in Florida earlier this January is caused by global warming, so I guess I should want less global warming so that Florida can warm back to normal then.
I wonder what that table would look like without data “adjustment”.
Here’s the lie…
NASA Finds 2013 Sustained Long-Term Climate Warming Trend
NASA scientists say 2013 tied with 2009 and 2006 for the seventh warmest year since 1880, continuing a long-term trend of rising global temperatures.
With the exception of 1998, the 10 warmest years in the 134-year record all have occurred since 2000, with 2010 and 2005 ranking as the warmest years on record.
If you analyse this opening statement logically, it actually suggests NO warming trend, rather supportive of the pause trend. If 2010 and 2005 rank highest and 2013 ties with 2009 and 2006 … well you can see how they ‘spin’ the lie
WTF
children will flatly deny taking a cooky, even tho’ you know and they know it’s in their hand behind them!
This is just ridiculous stuff.
I don’t know how AW has managed to keep it together dealing with deluded scheming scientist and their bare faced lies.
And they continue to monkey with the data trying to eek out warming. But they can do nothing about the Satellite record.
Because of VoiceInTheWilderness says:
I went and read that article and it made me laugh. They are jumping through hoops with numbers trying to hold on to the global warming meme. Gavin could be called a “Spin Sci” and his efforts to hold on are almost commendable. The article says in one part:
“Each successive year will not necessarily be warmer than the year before, but ..” don’t ya love it?
The problem with using anomalies on a chart like this is that the average unscientific person will think that the yearly degrees shown are actual increases in tempeature per year. That type of thinking would make the termperature increase since 1998 about 5.48 degrees C, scary indeed! They will also not understand that the base perioid used (1951 -1980) was during the last cold phase of the PDO. But I am sure that is all calculated by those pushing the AGW agenda.
philjourdan says: January 23, 2014 at 9:30 am
And they continue to monkey with the data trying to eek out warming. But they can do nothing about the Satellite record.
Keep saying that, if you repeat it often enough you might get others to believe it.
The Satellite record is not adjusted as much as the terrestial records, but there are times when the data is published that the values shown do not gell with what we have experienced for that month. So I do not have abslute faith in that record either, especially as the whole thing relies on Algorithms to get the values.
We already know that the Satellite Sea Level records went through a major adjustment a while back, who is to say that Roy Spencer won’t be forced to also make some “Adjustments”.
I much prefer the Unadulterated Terrestial Record for both Temperature and Seal level.
@A C Osborn – I agree with the unadjusted terrestrial record. But that is not something readily available to the general public, nor is it ever publicized.
I guess your disagreement with me is my poor choice of words. I should have said the Satellite record is HARDER to tamper with. I am not trying to delude myself on their efforts on any data set. As I have said in the past, we will soon be freezing to death in record heat.
Correction not Seal level but Sea level, I am not bothered how many seals there are LOL.
The world needs to quickly snap out of this CAGW scam and get prepared for the new cold period – PRONTO.
All expenditure and activity on “alt-energy” should be shelved immediately and every effort re-directed.
We need to take full advantage of traditional fuels in more innovative ways for the entire cycle; Discovery-Recovery-Distribution-Recycling.
When are we going to get an honest temperature record. We know that 1935/45 held the record for warmth even with 1998 in the books. it was the chiseling down of these and earlier years to increase the slope of the rise from 1880s (satellite temps confounded making large adjustments up on the recent end. Using a base of 1950-80 is totally dishonest. Had they used even the fiddled temperatures of 1940s, it would be only half the anomaly reported. Add the few tenths C back onto the 30s/40s and suddenly, some of these earlier dates remain among the 10th warmest. I’m unhappy with the acquiescence of skeptics. Even Bob Tisdale’s adopting the teams base years is a crock. Fine, he can show with their own numbers that things aren’t going anywhere over the past 16 years, but Gee, it would be nice to show what the real anomaly looks like since the last warm peak.
There are soon going be hundreds of thousands of climate scientists/environmental scientists in the coming decades transforming themselves into high school science teachers, if they are lucky.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/04/quote-of-the-week-high-school-climate-science/
Steve McIntyre: “In my opinion, most climate scientists on the Team would have been high school teachers in an earlier generation – if they were lucky. Many/most of them have degrees from minor universities. It’s much easier to picture people like Briffa or Jones as high school teachers than as Oxford dons of a generation ago. Or as minor officials in a municipal government.
Allusions to famous past amateurs over-inflates the rather small accomplishments of present critics, including myself. A better perspective is the complete mediocrity of the Team makes their work vulnerable to examination by the merely competent.”
There is no “too soon” for this to happen. For any young climate scientist who wants to remain one his best strategy under present conditions is to start publishing on natural variability and on studies critical of the way the Team thinks climate theory works.
Mike Fayette sent us to these charts:
http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/NOAA_NASA_2013_Global_Temperatures_Joint_Briefing.pdf
The chart for warmest 5 years and warmest 10 years is hilarious–or maybe my funny bone is just active today–but they have 10 years up and rate the years as being “Likely or “Unlikely” to be in the warmest 5 years or warmest 10 years since.. well they don’t say since when. This is titled NOAAs Warmest years on record and begins from 1998–skipping a few years–but they don’t give any base date–this is just NOAAs warmest years. The rating system uses “Likely, Very Likely, More Likely than Not, Unlikely, and More Unlikely than Likely.”
Is this science? I mean, come on….. Is this written for dolts? :Well, it’s Likely NOAAs Warmest Year. Unless its unlikely–or more likely or less likely or maybe its more unlikely than likely.
SCIENCE?
Anthony, I want to suggest something–Lets do a chart for “Noah’s” Warmest years. What is Likely, Unlikely, More Likely then Unlikely.. and so on. We could be just like NOAA! Josh–you have my permission to use this idea–this is science after all and I think skeptics should have a “Warmest Year” chart too. I’ll bet our Noah has a bunch more “likely” warm years than their NOAA!
sorry about the run on italics–I missed a code in there–what ever happened to us “reviewing” our comments–i liked that feature and it disappeared in short order.
This can’t be right.
The industrial revolution and industry burnt so much coal, that the temperature can’t possibly go back down. The aviation is burning kerosene and heating up the troposphere. Our cars pour out gas and heat, ships pour out smoke, even cattle burp making more & more global warming.
Even the chinese are making more and more smoke and pollution now.
Who started this site & who pays for it?
This must be the worst internet disinformation site in the world.