This is the second in a series of videos that examines hypothetical human-induced global warming and claims made by global warming enthusiasts. As noted in the title, it presents an introduction to the halt—a.k.a. the hiatus, the pause—in global warming.
I attended a somewhat large Thanksgiving gathering. There were about 18 immediate family, in laws and friends—mostly adults—seated around 2 tables. One of the greener attendees said something about global warming, and my response was that global warming has slowed and there has been no warming of global surface temperatures for more than a decade. My statement was met with disbelief by most. Luckily, two of the teenagers had heard of the hiatus or pause. (We later confirmed the halt on-line.) This generated a number of quick discussions, but the most surprising thing for me was that so few adults had heard that there had been a slowdown and halt in global warming…and that climate scientists were unable to explain it. Has the halt in global warming somehow escaped mainstream media attention in the States? (I don’t know. I haven’t watched TV in more than a decade.)
Thus this video:
The following are links to webpages and papers presented in the video:
- Kevin Trenberth’s article for the Royal Meteorological Society Has Global Warming Stalled? (My response to Trenberth’s article is here.)
- Von Storch, et al. (2013) “Can Climate Models Explain the Recent Stagnation in Global Warming?”
- Fyfe, et al. (2013) “Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years”
And, of course, I included a few model-data comparison graphs, which also show how poorly the models simulate global surface temperatures in recent years. For further discussions of these and other climate model failings, there are numerous posts at my blog Climate Observations. Refer also to my recent ebook Climate Models Fail.
In follow-up videos, we’ll present the excuses being used by global warming enthusiasts in light of the halt in global warming.
The video series “Comments on Human-Induced Global Warming” also includes:
Episode 1 – The Hiroshima Bomb Metric
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‘but the most surprising thing for me was that so few adults had heard that there had been a slowdown and halt in global warming.’
Sorry Bob, I’m doing the best I can.
From what I’ve seen the media, TV, newspapers etc, have been ignoring the pause and pushing the fear and terror angle of the coming “destruction of civilization” due to warming, sea level rise etc.
I could use some warming, it’s 28F in my front yard right now. A bit crisp for the SanJose area.
Same here in UK, Intelligent science based friends had never heard that the world had ceased to warm , that Arctic Ice wasn’t in a death spiral , that sea levels weren’t rising at a catastrophic rate.
They had some idea that the world is not as the BBC , Guardian , Independent portray it but no information to gather thoughts around .
Politically nobody is aware that it’s only 3 months ago that the opposition Labour Party voted unanimously to raise power supply bills – instead they get credit for suggesting a price freeze
A few more on Facebook will get the message this time as well. Great Job Bob. You have a nice day TOO!
I am always amazed at the great numbers of people who DO. NOT. KNOW. the first thing about what is going on. I’ve saved a couple of people from Polar Bear fever, among other things…
I think most people are unaware of the hiatus. Certainly, the UK department of energy and climate change seem to be in denial about it. The BBC know about it but make a point of never mentioning it. Only one newspaper has covered it, David Rose in the Mail on Sunday. Christopher Booker has covered it in his weekly column, but that is regarded as comment rather than news.
It does need more publicity so that the MSM and public start asking awkward questions.
Good video. It isn’t as easy to get public attention with “the world as we know it isn’t ending” than “repent now, the end is nigh” the doomslingers use.
Kit Blanke says:
December 5, 2013 at 3:35 am
“From what I’ve seen the media, TV…………………………….”
Kit, I just took the garbage out for pick-up and it is -28C [yes minus].
That is a bit crisp for Edmonton, Alberta too..
AB Slim – minus 26C here in Calgary. And windy. Brrrr…..
A pause? Only sixteen or seventeen years? Unless the warming is stopped for thirty years, it is just weather…
Yes, of course I am joking. Warming or cooling, the facts literally do not matter for the CAGW devotees. The ones with whom I have spoken refuse to even look at the facts. When I offer to send them charts or figures they tell me they do not want to see them. Why let the facts get in the way of a perfectly thrilling end-of-the-world fantasy, especially one that strokes their feelings of ethical self righteousness?
“there has been no warming of global surface temperatures for more than a decade”
“I haven’t watched TV in more than a decade”
For the sake of future generations Tisdale must be kept away from televisions…
Bob, it isn’t a ‘pause’, and neither is it an ‘hiatus’. Both terms imply that you KNOW the future state. We don’t KNOW the future state of climate, we can’t even be reasonably sure, so the term ‘pause’ is simply inadequate and incorrect based on the very point that temperatures have flatlined for some 15 years. I am so very sorry to labour this point, but I’m even more sorry that the word keeps being used on this website. It doesn’t matter that the English language is somewhat flexible (as some incorrectly argue), the word ‘pause’ is STILL taken to mean a temporary cessation – in both dictionary and common use (unlike – sadly – the word ‘literally’ or even ‘rape’). I promise this is my last time trying to correct otherwise learned people – it is NOT a ‘pause’. As steveta_uk (by mistake) points out on another thread here, the pause button on a DVD implies that you wish to continue to play it (otherwise you’d press ‘stop’). It is a temporary position of state. If warming continues then the ‘pause’ CAN be referred to in the past tense. For example, “Back in the 2000s, the warming paused, before it continued.” However, we just might say, “Back in the 2000s, the warming stopped.”! We don’t yet know, so we cannot say ‘pause’. The static line in the anomaly is too long for it to be a pause. If you shoot a rocket up with only a few seconds of fuel to burn, there is a very short period of time when the fuel runs out, that it pauses, before falling back. So the word would be ok to use for a very short time after 1998, but 15 years is too long. The temp could well fall, so ‘pause’ would be shown to be incorrect. Everyone clear?
Quite right TGOBJC. I always tell people its stopped, not paused (though I like flatlined – I might borrow that) Sure it might start again, it also might not.
“The Hiroshima Bomb Metric” ?
That’s just plain silly. More likely it was UNF.
SCNR
Quote from Michael Fumento today in the NY Post regarding “the pause”:
Mind you, the term “pause” is misleading in the extreme: Unless and until it resumes again, it’s just a “stop.” You don’t say a bullet-ridden body “paused” breathing.
Almost lost my coffee.
The Global warming hoax, was started as a way to frighten the public enough, to go along with their “Greed energy scam”. When mother nature didn’t co-operate, they re-worded their claim, to “climate change”, which means that we can now be blamed for any natural weather occurrence! What a bunch of crap!
“Arctic death-spiral” Trenberth uses the Warmist tactic of cherry-picking the start date of the Halt. But, the start date is now, and working back. Anything to protect the CAGW cause though.
Now your rocket example cleared all that up….oh wait….if the rocket only “Paused”, well then it would again continue on upward, after the pause was over. So how could it really “Pause” if it never once again continued upward, you know, like that DVD example you gave. I’d dare say it plain “stopped” and then accelerated again in another direction only to “permanently” pause when it crashed to earth. Meanwhile, all along it was always accelerating downward without any “pause” in acceleration, Gravitarily speaking, it was just rocket fuel accelerating upward faster then the “non paused” downward gravity acceleration.
Really even hate talking about this kind of stuff. Reminds me of my catholic youth and purgatory. Now that’s a pause…a real pause, more like a permanent pause, where you can never go forward to the pearly gates….”permanently Paused”, which I know Mr Cooley is not quite stopped. At least, in my mind, if I were in purgatory, i would always hope to end that pause, but they never really explained to us if that pause ever became a “stop”. Personally, i would rather have them get it over with and tell me one way or another so I could get on with my life…..Oh wait…I’m in purgatory, I’m dead, so I can’t get on with my life….I guess I’ll just have to accept this permanent pause.
Thanks Mr Cooley, I have to run out and tell all my friends you gotz this whole thing figgered out. Sometimes there is some really fantastic thoughts passing along these pages….Then again, sometimes not.
The reaction does not surprise me at all. The MMS never gives any credence to the pause or just ignores it completely. We are inundated with day after day reports of how the last year was the x highest on record and all of the catastrophic outcomes expected. There is never any well reasoned explanations about the data. Why should there be. Hysteria sells newspapers and magazines and helps with ratings on TV. We have had articles with screaming headlines about Global Warming causing the extinction of the wolf on Isle Royale in Lake Superior because of lack of an ice bridge from the mainland. Only deep into the article did it explain that wolves came over from Ontario during an extremely cold winter in 1949 and there has been inbreeding since then leading to genetic problems. No mention in the headline that they were not native to the Island. Another example was a blaring headline with AGW causing lower levels in the Great Lakes due to increased evaporation. Yet deep in the article it explained that while Lakes Michigan and Huron were down, in fact Lakes Erie and Ontario were slightly up from historical norms and Lake Superior was only slightly down. Deep in the article it explained that extensive and long term dredging in the waterways connecting Huron to Erie may have accelerated the drainage of Lakes Michigan and Huron. But that doesnt sell newpapers.
I don’t believe that you haven’t watched TV in a decade. If you haven’t, you must be “out of touch”. lol
Regarding the brouhaha over the Warmists’ use of the word “pause” instead of halt, I’m reminded of how, in the novel “1984” language is twisted for propaganda purposes. Language most certainly does matter, and they know it.
I really like your video though. You should put it on TV.
@ur momisugly Birdieshooter “Deep in the article it explained that extensive and long term dredging in the waterways connecting Huron to Erie may have accelerated the drainage of Lakes Michigan and Huron.”
Holy cow!!! CAGW causes dredging!! Time to panic!!
AKA the plateau.
Here’s a link to the rather pointed opinion piece by Michael Fumento in the Washington Post today.
Global-warming ‘proof’ is evaporating
http://nypost.com/2013/12/05/global-warming-proof-is-evaporating/