UN panel opens Stockholm meet on global warming
“I’m looking forward to working with you in the next four days to deliberate and approve (this report) line by line,” [Pachauri] said.
More at GlobalPost
From the IPCC press release:
“Our assessment draws on millions of measurements which permit an unprecedented and unbiased view of the state of the Earth System . Millions of billions of bytes of numerical data form the foundation for estimates of possible futures of our climate. We have produced a Summary for Policymakers that presents the findings in the clearest possible manner, a document with no comp romises to scientific accuracy. ” said Thomas Stocker, the other Co-Chair of Working Group I.”
IPCC press release – pr_130923_opening_ceremony.pdf
(FYI In the interest of public discourse and scrutiny, I will be posting the full widely “leaked” draft SPM later today, so that there can be comparisons worldwide of what the politicians have morphed it to – Anthony)
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The great dilemma for climate science
Andrew Montford writes at Bishop Hill:
I have an article up at the Spectator’s Coffee House blog on that awful dilemma for the IPCC:
It will not be an easy task. However the IPCC chooses to deal with the problem the repercussions are unpleasant. They might try to explain away the warming hiatus in some way: the in-vogue explanation is that the heat that should have been in the atmosphere has escaped, undetected, to the deep oceans.
Evidence to support this idea is, however, scant at best, and going down this route is going to involve the IPCC admitting that there is much about the climate system that is not yet understood. This will be a hard act to carry off while simultaneously claiming that they are certain that mankind caused most of the recent warming.
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Delusions of ….something?
Dr. Kerry Emanuel seems to think his job is super important
You could, however, sum its findings up in just four words: “the world is defrosting”. This is how Prof Neville Nicholls of Monash University, Australia, put it. Human impacts, according to a leaked draft of the report, are changing the planet in ways “unprecedented in hundreds of thousands of years”.
…“The decisions we make in the next decade or so are decisions that will determine the fate of the planet for thousands of years,” says Prof Kerry Emanuel of MIT in Boston.
…The scenario of acidified, oxygen-starved oceans teeming with jellyfish and almost nothing else is edging from science fiction to climate science fact.
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I wonder what the Germans will say about the IPCC report?
With climate change losing importance in Germany as an issue and the Energiewende (transition to renewable energy) turning into a chaos that threatens the country’s economic stability, the Greens, who were polling near 16% earlier in the year, have since lost almost half of their voter base.
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Mike Mann’s “Curry derangement syndrome” Tweet
Well, at least he didn’t throw in “#Kochtopus
This is what Dr. Mann is ranting about:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/climate-consensus-skewing-science/story-e6frg6xf-1226724080490
Dr. Curry says pretty much what we all think of Dr. Mann:
We’ll check back on the credibility issue after IPCC AR5 SPM has been released, in the meantime, I’m sure Mike will keep us entertained.
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Pure BS from Oxford Professor Myles Allen:
…This point was backed by Professor Myles Allen at Oxford University. “We have examined the forecasts made by climate scientists over the past three decades and they have been absolutely spot on in terms of predicting subsequent levels of global warming,” he said. “Our climate models are robust and working well.”
[Professor Jonathan Bamber of Bristol University] “One recent study found a way to assess sea ice cover in the Arctic over the past 1,600 years. At no point in that time were levels found to be as low as they are today. The current drop is probably the handiwork of human beings.”
Climate change: IPCC cites global temperature rise over last century | Environment | The Observer
h/t to Tom Nelson
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Maslowski “ice free Arctic in 2013”, falsified:
Sea Ice News Volume 4 Number 6: Arctic sea ice has most definitely turned the corner – Maslowski is falsified
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Looks like total and complete desperation from Climate Central. Last throw if the dice kind of stuff. Last gasp saloon. All or nothing at all. Hitler’s bunker.
“…This point was backed by Professor Myles Allen at Oxford University. “We have examined the forecasts made by climate scientists over the past three decades and they have been absolutely spot on in terms of predicting subsequent levels of global warming,” he said. “Our climate models are robust and working well.””
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“A propaganda technique…. ……. The use of a lie so “colossal” that no one would believe that someone “could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Lie
Home delivery of jumbo popcorn order with case of bottles of Irn Bru expected in next half hour.
How long will it last before a repeat order is required?
“the world is defrosting”.
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The default setting for this planet is colder…..a lot colder
‘ “Our assessment draws on millions of measurements which permit an unprecedented and unbiased view of the state of the Earth System . Millions of billions of bytes of numerical data form the foundation for estimates of possible futures of our climate.’
Back in the Sixties, we would have asked what this guy was smoking. Today, we simply point out that the statement is “downright childish.” Nothing more can be said. I do give him credit for aping Sagan, but why did he not go to trillions – to be true to Sagan, I guess. He is not in touch with reality. The common office secretary knows that he/she is dealing with billions of bytes daily. The ordinary gamer views billions of bytes as not ready for prime time.
Fantastic job hindcasting arctic sea ice when there is absolutely no data for most of that 1600 year period. You can basically just throw out any number you want and only have to curve-fit the last forty years.
‘Human impacts, according to a leaked draft of the report, are changing the planet in ways “unprecedented in hundreds of thousands of years”.’
Notice how they deal in tautologies that sound ominous but are simple definitional truths stating nothing of importance. Of course human impacts are unprecedented in hundreds of thousands of years. Humans have had an impact for maybe 70 years. Dimwit.
Jimmy Haigh. says:
September 23, 2013 at 7:38 am
Spot on. They will be throwing “Hail Marys” the whole game.
Let’s see, Michael Mann vs. Judith Curry. We have the explosive, vitriolic, and hostile propagandist for imminent doom going against the cool, rational, and gentle scientist. I just cannot wait to discover who supports Mann in this debate.
@Jimmy Haigh
This will turn into a very nasty last fight. The ‘war on skeptics’ has now been declared. That’s all they have left, because the facts have proved them wrong and deep down they know it’s lost. But the money will buy them more time than that
…unprecedented and unbiased view of the state of the Earth System
said Thomas Stocker, the other Co-Chair of Working Group I.
———————————–
(FYI In the interest of public discourse and scrutiny, I will be posting the full widely “leaked” draft SPM later today, so that there can be comparisons worldwide of what the politicians have morphed it to – A.W.)
______________________
That's like a delicious item on a menu posted in the window of a restaurant in the theater district… the opera's over and we're hungry and the line is getting shorter.
mods: Would it be possible to change the ‘?’ to ‘/’ in preceding post?
oops- never mind- still got it wrong- ‘>’
pimf
oops,
…than one might think it will last. It will be years if not another decade.
Could the more-knowledgable among you please take a look at this BBC web page graph and tell me if it’s true. I try to follow the climate debate, but this graph is a new one to me:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24204323
Thanks for your help.
I’m surprised that Mann would introduce integrity and credibility into the conversation. Having none of his own I presume he’s learned of it through 3rd parties or possibly seen it on TV and so I’d need to see his cites regards his sources. This is fully consistent with what I’ve come to expect from Penn State, an institution that seems prepared to stand behind any form of bad behavior from its staff.
The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley :
It looks like they’ve put the instrument temperature record onto the end of a smoothed trend line which is probably based on proxy measurements which inherently lack the resolution to pick up temperature changes we’ve seen recently.
In other words, it may be accurate at showing what it can, but it doesn’t mean it’s an accurate representation of the situation.
Pure propaganda.
I’m losing patience with these sorts of tricks now.
The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley says:
September 23, 2013 at 8:43 am
Could the more-knowledgable among you please take a look at this BBC web page graph and tell me if it’s true. I try to follow the climate debate, but this graph is a new one to me:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24204323
Thanks for your help.
________________________________
Think “hockey stick”.
From Reuters:
“One of the hardest issues for the IPCC may be accounting for why temperatures have not risen much this century. “Fifteen-year-long hiatus periods are common,” in historical climate records, an accompanying 127-page technical summary says.
A combination of natural variations, including a cyclical dip in energy emitted by the sun, and factors such as volcanic eruptions – which send ash into the atmosphere and help block sunlight – have caused the hiatus, it says, predicting a resumption of warming in coming years.”
Yet we were told over and over that the sun had no influence on warming. So how could the sun have now an influence on cooling? Through what newly discovered process? /sarc
Alan, the Hockey Stick was only 1,500 years. I wasn’t aware of this Marcott paper.
JC,
The same idea applies- take Liberal Skeptic’s statement, visualize Mann’s or any or all of the hockey sticks and graft them onto the end of a long time line and compress it to the point of no resolution- et voila…
Big Jim,
The authors themselves said the 20th century part of the reconstruction “was not robust”.
This was not in his thesis so some speculate that perhaps a reviewer suggested they
add that as part of getting it published? This paper has been debunked (parts of it) several times
but I do not have the link handy. Both on WUWT and possible by Steve McIntyre?
The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley says:
September 23, 2013 at 8:43 am
That’s the Marcott graph which the author himself said was not correct (not “robust”) in answer to critics (S McIntyre, I think), because his method does not allow periods as short as 50 years to be discerned.
Ghost Jim Cooley
The Graph
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24204323 is unprecendented for the BBC to show on their news site. Shows no significant warming since 1850? I think they have decided that the AGW is a scam and are doing their best to get out of it. Good on them! The tide is REALLY TURNING now. I doubt that the IPPC will last more than a year or two. I believe that only the real “climate scientists” (who actually knew that it was fraud) fraudsters need to be prosecuted. People like Gore, Cook etc are really just “climate” ignorant bystanders who properly never understood climate etc and should not be pursued. Unfortunately for the fraudsters MSM will now turn against them for one reason only: There is no a fascinating story to be sold to the public about the whole scam since Lord Stern started this whole thing in the 70’s.
With Pachauri announcing that he is not running again for Chairman in 2015, the apparatchik trough dwellers are now battling on two fronts: against the facts and against each other for the top job. Can’t wait for shark week with all that blood in the water.