Image Credit: Cryosphere Today – University of Illinois – Polar Research Group
By WUWT Regular Just The Facts
In previous years there was reason to cheer, .e.g. “Transport is steaming full speed ahead.” “Some serious ice transport going on there. If this keeps up…” Neven, “Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt to Levels Unseen in Millennia”, “Arctic Sea-ice minimum 2012 declared – it’s the Silly Season!” Skeptical Science 1 and 2
However, this year the mood is more sober and downbeat, e.g. in Neven’s recent article “ASI 2013 update 8: the end is nigh” he writes that;
I didn’t think it was possible, but area-wise 2013 is now even above 2009. Apparently this can happen when the weather isn’t conducive to ice decrease (melt, compaction and transport) for almost the entire melting season, even if you start out with a record amount of first-year ice. Fascinating stuff. After the lowest average daily decrease since 2006 for the month of August, 2013 is almost 1.3 million km2 behind last year!
Later in comments this exchange occurred:
Pete Williamson: Neven, I think at some point you’re going to have to stop being surprised at the lack of melt (or the persistence of extent) this year 😛
Neven: I know, I know. I just can’t get over it! 😀
Pete Williamson: Not only has a lot of FYI survived but so has much of the SYI (2nd) which is going to start showing up in the MYI category next year. It possible that at least a bit of a ‘recovery’ in the MYI is on the cards.
Neven: Definitely. This is now the number 1 point of interest for me. A couple of melting seasons like this one in a row, and you could really start speaking of a recovery. But just one 2007/2011/2012 year could negate all of it as well.
So what has these Sea Ice Melt Enthusiasts sober and downbeat? Well certainly the stubbornly average Global Sea Ice Area graph at the head of this article can’t help, but let’s take a closer look:
Arctic Sea Ice Extent;
continues to trend below average, however it has remained within the 30 year (1981 – 2010) “normal” range for the entirety of 2013. Conversely, Antarctic Sea Ice Extent;
continues to trend above average and has remained outside of the “normal” range for much of the last month. Furthermore, Southern Sea Ice Area has now remained above average for most of the last two years:
and is within striking distance of a record high:
All of these facts might dampen even the most dedicated Sea Ice Melt Enthusiast’s spirits, but then again, there’s always next year, i.e.:
“I have great excuses, of course, like the fact that I’m in the process of building a house (slowly reaching its climax in the next 2-3 weeks), and the melting season being less of a spectacle with slow melting and an extremely cloudy Arctic. But still, there’s always plenty of stuff to talk about when it comes to that fascinating place that is the Arctic. Next year will probably be better.” Neven
To see more information on sea ice please visit the WUWT Sea Ice Page and WUWT Northern Regional Sea Ice Page.
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Better being worse – these guys have a real twist on things don’t they.
The Arctic sea ice is supposed to be gone this year. My oh my, what has happened? The Arctic has not melted?
anybody wants to count how many sites include the expression “thanks to Hurricane Sandy”?
I think things are only going to get worse for the melt enthusiasts. The recently reported increased clogging of channels between the islands of the Canadian Archipelago suggest less thick ice can be exported, and that likely signals the recovery of the Arctic sea ice. That’s why Antarctic Sea Ice Is the Better Climate Change Indicator http://landscapesandcycles.net/antarctic-sea-ice–climate-change-indicator.html
Ok, What is going on with the
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/
This is the parent site for the
Polar Ice Thickness, Concentration, Temperature, Drift plots
used on the WUWT Sea Ice Reference Page.
It is down today. It was down two days ago.
Interesting set of facts in the arctic this year – shortest duration between 1st & last freeze (see previous posts on WUWT ) & although ice area is larger this year, it doesn’t seem to be recovering in a record sort of way – still well below 70s & 80s.
From these 2 observations, it would appear that air temperature isn’t nearly as important to ice extent as other influences, such as winds, warm water advection to arctic (esp. from the Atlantic), clouds, storms, etc.
This is a fairly profound observation in that warmists are always screaming about global warming & loss of ice. Based on data, air temperature looks like it may be a minor player in arctic ice area therefore AGW has very little to do with arctic ice extent. This hypothesis is further supported by the observation that we had significant declines in arctic ice area in the 2000-2010 decade , despite the standstill in global average temperature.
Yet another AGW myth de-bunked – just like that.
Neven needs the…ACE!!!! Maybe he can borrow it.
Reblogged this on CACA.
The year 2013 has become a nightmare for climate alarmists.
Arctic sea ice at 1.6 million square kilometers greater extent than 2012,
U.S. tornado count at record low levels after an already very low level of tornadoes in 2012,
no Atlantic hurricanes to date more than 50 percent into the hurricane season,
well below average number of wildfires and acreage burned compared to long term data,
no global increase in either droughts or floods compared to long run global data,
continuing linear global sea level rise according to NOAA sea level tide gauge data with no acceleration present in more than 150 years according to the longest available records,
record high Antarctic sea ice extent continuing the long term increasing trend and continuing long term average global temperature pause despite record high CO2 emissions growth with that growth entirely due to developing nations.
One must wonder how long the climate alarmists and their biased supporters in the climate fear media can hope to hide the fact that empirical data is completely overwhelming and destroying their dishonest and purely political driven environmental campaign.
Loved that US sailer on a boat in the Arctic saying the Canadian government should learn good PR and provide gratis Icebeaking service. I wonder how much ice breakers have contributed to the “soon to be ice free Arctic”? There are Russian and Canadian icebreakers out there now breaking up the ice.
To further depress their spirits, not a single murderous hurricane has hit the eastern seaboard (but hey, there’s still time). And the tornado season, after a promising start, was a damp squib.
I love Arctic ice, that’s why I desperately like to see it disappear
Could be a Monty Python sketch, ooooh errrr:
Let’s not celebrate the lack of hurricanes yet. Conditions are becoming more favorable, and one impactful east coast hurricane is all it will take to put these guys back in business…at least for a little while..
Next year will probably be better.” Neven
It never ceases to amaze me that the predictors of doom are disappointed when doom seems to be averted. Surely Neven, you’re not cheering for the emergence of catastrophic climate change? Surely, for the sake of humanity, you’d rather be wrong? Surely you cannot be so invested in your world view, so egotistical about being right, that you would wish doom upon humanity rather than be wrong?
When do we get to start saying “Human influences in the world are the highest they have ever been and arctic sea ice is recovering, hurricanes and tornadoes have been reduced, and temperatures have been statistically stable or falling for the past decade!!”
Thus human emissions and CO2 are responsible for reversing catastrophic conditions. 🙂 If they get to blame humans when it goes bad, we get to credit humans when it doesn’t. Right? Logic!
Pete Williamson: Not only has a lot of FYI survived but so has much of the SYI (2nd) which is going to start showing up in the MYI category next year. It possible that at least a bit of a ‘recovery’ in the MYI is on the cards.
The key question is why has older multi-year ice melted out and been replaced by new ice? It must a property of the (2 kinds of) ice itself. I don’t buy that currents have preferentially exported older ice. The difference between the melt rate of multi-year ice and 2 year ice is too large, and besides this explanation is too ad hoc for my taste.
The main reason is older sea ice had high levels of embedded black carbon mostly from industries on the Kola Peninsula, now mostly shutdown. Newer ice has lower levels of BC and is more resistant to albedo driven melt.
Jeff L, The same cause of of reduced BC has also reduced Arctic aerosols (except in the western Arctic where aerosol levels have been steady due to increased aerosols from China), which has reduce aerosol seeded clouds. Hence increasing solar insolation. IMO we have seen a one time change that will result in Arctic sea ice minimum permanently reduced, although at higher levels than post 2007 (until something else changes).
“It never ceases to amaze me that the predictors of doom are disappointed when doom seems to be averted.”
All I can think about when I see the words “predictors of doom” are the nutbars wearing “The End Is Nigh!” sandwich boards on their person.
http://thisfragiletent.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/end.gif
Aphan says: Thus human emissions and CO2 are responsible for reversing catastrophic conditions. 🙂 If they get to blame humans when it goes bad, we get to credit humans when it doesn’t. Right? Logic!
——————————————
Absolutely! With you 100% on that one!
I’ve been saying this for a while, but the warmists’ greatest contribution to society is making it unhappy when doom is averted. I really don’t understand this self-loathing.
The Left had us (the people) on the ropes in so many ways, but then they committed the classic error of fooling themselves — they believed their own alarmist tripe. Now Gaia itself will show that they are wrong, plainly for all to see. So good-bye and good riddance to the Left’s phony moral imperative.
Bummer.
I need a warm winter from global warming here on the great plains. Last winter really put a damper on my bike riding. Still have to do a 600K rando event.
The last time no Atlantic hurricanes occurred in August was back in 2002 some 11 years ago. It was also in 2002 that the first Atlantic hurricane of the season occurred on Sept. 11 (late in the season) which turned into a category 2 event. You have to go back all the way to 1941 when a later start of the Atlantic hurricane commenced with a Sept. 16 date. According to NOAA at present there are no disturbances in the Atlantic region which are potentially capable of becoming a tropical storm (40 percent) within the next 5 days let alone a hurricane. Yes the season can turn quickly but 2013 certainly looks like it has the potential as a record breaker for the late start of these events. This is not good news for climate alarmists.
The warmist’s are no different than any other cult that believes the “End of the World” is nigh. Even when the signs they predict don’t happen, they just push the date out and rationalize why the sign didn’t appear. Their frustration is that though they are sure they are right regardless, the sign was to convince the unbelievers of their revealed TRUTH.
omnologos says: September 7, 2013 at 3:47 pm
anybody wants to count how many sites include the expression “thanks to Hurricane Sandy”?
327,000 according to Google:
https://www.google.com/search?q=dower&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a#q=%22thanks+to+Hurricane+Sandy%22&rls=org.mozilla:en-US%3Aofficial
The top one is a Huffington Post article, “Thanks To Hurricane Sandy, Obama Supporters Feel Better About Odds ”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/03/hurricane-sandy-obama_n_2069283.html
Here’s the thing: one tropical storm that hits the east coast and they will be back pointing. It’s no longer the “big picture.” It’s political and as the adage says, all politics are local. “superstorm sandy” isn’t called “Hurricane Sandy” for a reason and the actual lack, for two generations, of normal hurricane activity made it a disaster.