Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup

Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project

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Quote of the Week: “The great tragedy of Science – the slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact.” Thomas Huxley [H/t Tim Ball]

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Number of the Week: 1,667 times

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THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Secret Letter: Climategate bulldog Steve McIntyre has been pursuing a reference by Thomas Stocker, co-chair of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for Working Group I (WGI), which covers the scientific basis of the various declarations of global warming / climate change. The letter was referenced in note threatening UK scientists with dire consequences if the letter is released to the public. Equally tenacious Christopher Horner of the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) apparently obtained the letter from Thomas Peterson of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a Climategate correspondent. McIntyre amusingly asks if Stocker will retaliate against the US, and American scientists. The US is a major funder of the IPCC and climate research in the US and other countries.

The letter, which went to all AR4 Lead Authors, Coordinating Lead Authors and Review Editors, contains some disturbing statements as to the direction of IPCC science. In its Third Assessment Report (AR3) published in 2001, especially in the Summary for Policymakers, the IPCC attempted to suppress climate history, particularly the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age with the discredited hockey-stick. In the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) published in 2007, the IPCC largely ignored or dismissed climate history. The letter states that Working Group I will remain firmly behind the findings of AR4.

After a decade of the IPCC suppressing climate history, increasingly, discussions of the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age are appearing in the literature. If the upcoming Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), due out in 2013, fails to address climate history, its science will be biased and unreliable. Please see links under Climategate Continued.

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Secret Email Addresses: The correspondence of US government officials and employees, when acting in an official capacity, is part of the public record, which legally must be preserved. The law applies to email correspondence as well as physical correspondence. The letter discussed above is an example of NOAA adhering to the law. In the past, some government officials and employees have failed to adhere to the law. The determined Christopher Horner has discovered that a number of government agencies / employees keep secret email addresses where they conduct official business. NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is one such organization. The director of GISS, James Hansen, is a political activist in global warming alarm and energy policy.

These activities are disturbing because the historic temperature record produced by GISS has been repeatedly changed to the point that the 1930s warm period and the cooling from about 1940 to 1975, which gave alarm of an impending new Ice Age, barely exist. See Global Temperatures: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/

Please see links under Suppressing Scientific (or Public) Inquiry. Please note that, whenever possible, TWTW avoids politically or ideologically slanted links and believes the public disclosure laws apply to all regardless of political party or ideology.

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North Atlantic Climate Change: Last week, TWTW linked to a study taken in Svalbard, an archipelago north of the Arctic Circle. The study asserted that the current warm period is warmer than previously warm periods. Since the results are inconsistent with a large body of evidence across Greenland and North America, TWTW suggested that it may be an outlier or part of a cycle. Several readers asserted it was and send examples of prior studies. Euan Mearns referenced a study by Bond, et al, “Persistent Solar Influence on North Atlantic Climate During the Holocene”, Science 294 (5549): 2130–2136. Kenneth Towe sent a study by Kenneth Drinkwater showing a dramatic North Atlantic climate shift in the 1920s and 1930s based on temperatures, fish stocks, spawning areas, food biomass, etc.

This week’s NIPCC Reports links to a study reporting on climate change in Iceland for the past 10,200 years (the Holocene). The study indicates there is nothing unusual about the current warm period or the rate of warming.

In addition, past TWTWs have linked to changing Svalbard temperatures especially the December 17, 2011 which linked to an article showing a relationship between the solar cycle and Svalbard temperatures and predicting that the temperatures will decline in the future: http://arxiv.org/abs/1112.3256

Also, as linked in the September 24, TWTW, the Antarctic Peninsula appears to undergo cyclical warming and cooling. Please see links under Changing Climate and NIPCC Reports.

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Measurement Issues: Roy Spencer reports that he and John Christy are seeing that the Aqua satellite they most depend upon for their temperature monitoring is experiencing increasing noise. They will have to adjust the datasets for this noise, which they hope to accomplish within a few weeks. No doubt, the adjustments will receive intense outside scrutiny and some will declare the instrument noise makes the satellite data unreliable. But those who wish to examine the adjustments will be able to do so before and after they are done. This is in contrast with NASA-GISS historic temperature data which are modified without public announcements. Please see links under measurement issues.

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Climate Sensitivity: The amount the earth will warm with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) has been a major issue for years. Classical theory indicates that it will be about 1.1 deg C (2 deg F). The IPCC, its models, and the climate establishment insist warming will be more than this because the warming will cause an increase in atmospheric water vapor (the major greenhouse gas) which will amplify the CO2-caused warming, a net positive feedback. Other climate scientists, such a Richard Lindzen, have stated that based upon their empirical research the warming will be dampened by other climate effects, a net negative feedback. New research indicates that the warming will be 1.1 deg C +/- 0.4 deg C – the same as the classical theory.

The controversy will continue. But, what is interesting is the wide range of estimates of climate sensitivity with the median estimates ranging from 0.7 deg C to 8 deg C. Until this issue is empirically resolved, model projections are simply sophisticated speculation. Please see links under Climate Sensitivity.

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Additions and Corrections: Reader William Dwyer corrected TWTW when he pointed out the correct title for the magazine that reported deficiencies in Fisker’s automobile, Karma, was Consumer Reports not Consumers Report. As always TWTW deeply appreciates additions and corrections.

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Unintended Movie Humor? Several blogs have noted that the new movie “Promised Land”, this is strongly against hydraulic fracturing is financed, in part, by the government of Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The UAE is one of the Persian Gulf oil states and in June produced about 2.6 million barrels a day, much of it for export. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-15/abu-dhabi-exports-first-pipeline-oil-to-pakistani-refinery-1-.html

The bloggers suggested that investing in the movie was motivated by something other than an investment diversification plan. Negative marketing (a form of propaganda) can be a prudent investment.

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Number of the Week: 1,667 times. Last week TWTW linked to an article on the results from the US Geological Survey (USGS) testing of water wells near Pavillion, Wyoming, which the EPA had declared were contaminated by hydraulic fracturing. The EPA announced that the USGS findings were consistent with the EPA’s earlier findings. According to a UPI, report the USGS findings showed the presence of hydrocarbon benzene, which is considered to be carcinogenic to be within 3 percent of the EPA recommended limit for well water. The EPA had reported that it had found benzene to be 50 times the recommended limit. Thus, the proportion of benzene found in the water by the EPA is 1,667 times the proportion the USGS found. The word consistency has a different meaning to the EPA than to most of us.

It should be noted that the natural gas wells in Pavillion are not deep underground wells in dense shale, but are shallow wells apparently in the Wind River formation which is largely composed of claystone, siltstone, and sandstone, which are far less dense. http://tin.er.usgs.gov/geology/state/sgmc-unit.php?unit=WYTwdr%3B0. Any adverse findings cannot be logically applied to hydraulic fracturing of shale. Please see links under EPA and other Regulators on the March.

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ARTICLES:

For the numbered articles below please see this week’s TWTW at: http://www.sepp.org. The articles are at the end of the pdf.

1. Opening Statement of the Honorable Joe Barton

Chairman Emeritus, Committee on Energy and Commerce, The American Energy Initiative, Sep 20, 2012 (No URL)

[SEPP Comment: Embraces the work of Fred Singer.]

2. The EPA’s Pebble Beaching

Rewriting the Clean Water Act to kill an Alaska mining project.

Editorial, WSJ, Sep 30, 2012

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443989204577603311958126108.html?mod=ITP_opinion_2

3. Bakken Crude Prices Rise as Railroad Reach Grows

By Ben Lafebyre, WSJ, Oct 4, 2012

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443635404578036631081423440.html?mod=WSJ_Energy_leftHeadlines

4. Cuomo’s De-Fracking

New York’s Governor favors rich greens over the upstate poor.

Editorial, WSJ, Oct 3, 2012

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443635404578034451214517808.html

5. India Oil Firms Buy Stake in Carrizo’s Colorado Asset

By Rakesh Sharma, WSJ, Oct 4, 2012

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443768804578036142920495454.html?mod=WSJ_Energy_leftHeadlines

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NEWS YOU CAN USE:

 

Climategate Continued

Will Stocker Retaliate against the U.S?

By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Oct 4, 2012

http://climateaudit.org/2012/10/04/will-stocker-retaliate/

The ‘secret’ IPCC Stocker WG1 memo – found!

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 4, 2012

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/04/the-secret-ipcc-stocker-wg1-memo-found/

[SEPP Comment: Link to the letter.]

Suppressing Scientific (or Public) Inquiry

The Cyber Bonfire of GISS’s Vanities

By Chris Horner, WUWT, Oct 4, 2012

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/04/the-cyber-bonfire-of-gisss-vanities/#more-71977

The Liberal War on Transparency

By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Oct 5, 2012

http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2012/10/5/the-liberal-war-on-transparency.html

Czars, Lies and Email: What Information Is the Left Trying to Delete From History?

By Christopher Horner, The Blaze, Oct 2, 2012 [H/t Cooler Heads]

http://www.theblaze.com/contributions/czars-lies-and-email-what-information-is-the-left-trying-to-delete-from-history/

Challenging the Orthodoxy

New Paper “An Empirical Study Of The Impact Of Human Activity On Long-Term Temperature Change In China: A Perspective From Energy Consumption” By Li And Zhao 2012

By Roger Pielke, Sr, Climate Science, Oct 1, 2012

http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2012/10/01/new-paper-an-empirical-study-of-the-impact-of-human-activity-on-long-term-temperature-change-in-china-a-perspective-from-energy-consumption-by-li-and-zhao-2012/

[SEPP Comment: Measured temperature increases are closely related to local energy consumption, an indicator of increased human activity.]

International research group shows that the aging of organic aerosols is caused by OH radicals

Climate models need to be updated

Press Release, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, Oct 4, 2012 [H/t WUWT]

http://www.uni-mainz.de/presse/15768_ENG_HTML.php

[SEPP Comment: As an amusing sidelight, published hiking guides of the Blue Mountains of Australia state the blue haze is caused by natural organic aerosols. For years, environmentalists in the US have been claiming the Great Smokey Mountains got its name steam coming off the mountains after a thunderstorm and that the haze of the Blue Ridge was caused by automobiles – as if the pioneers who named it had automobiles.]

 

Throwing Money at Climate Lies

By Alan Caruba, Warning Signs, Oct 1, 2012

http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com/2012/10/throwing-money-at-climate-lies.html

Environmentalists Create Another False Claim About Climate Change

By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Oct 3, 2012

http://drtimball.com/2012/environmentalists-create-another-false-claim-about-climate-change/

[SEPP Comment: Contrary to the claims of the global warming / climate change alarmist, there is nothing unusual in the rate of current climate change.]

Europe’s Media Goes Completely Deaf & Dumb When It Comes To Record High Antarctic Sea Ice

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 2, 2012 [H/t GWPF]

http://notrickszone.com/2012/10/02/europes-media-goes-completely-deaf-dumb-when-it-comes-to-record-high-antarctic-sea-ice/

Defending the Orthodoxy

Humans added plenty greenhouse gases before industrialisation

By Staff Writers, Paris (AFP), Oct 03, 2012

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Humans_added_plenty_greenhouse_gases_before_industrialisation_999.html

UN official: Climate skeptics are losing

By Ben Geman, The Hill, Oct 1, 2012

http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/259525-un-official-sees-climate-skepticism-falling

[SEPP Comment: “Christiana Figueres, the United Nations’ top climate change official” at conference by the International Emissions Trading Association.]

Ocean acidification emerges as new climate threat

By Juliet Eilperin, Washington Post, Sep 30, 2012

http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/ocean-acidification-emerges-as-new-climate-threat/2012/09/30/8457e6e8-08b8-11e2-afff-d6c7f20a83bf_story.html

[SEPP Comment: The headline encapsulates the rigor of the thinking in the story.]

A pinch of salt for new carbon storage modeling

By Freya Roberts, Carbon Brief, Sep 27, 2012

http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2012/09/saltmarshes-seagrasses-dont-quite-solve-climate-change

Can we estimate the tipping point into irreversible climate change? We assess the One Hundred Months campaign

By Roz Pidcock, Carbon Brief, Oct 4, 2012

http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2012/10/can-we-define-the-tipping-point-into-reversible-climate-change

Questioning the Orthodoxy

Southern Hemisphere becoming drier

By Staff Writers, e Science, Oct 3, 2012

http://esciencenews.com/articles/2012/10/03/southern.hemisphere.becoming.drier

 

Hey, School Teachers: Those Greenhouse Effect Experiments Are Junk

By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Oct 2, 2012

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2012/10/hey-school-teachers-those-greenhouse-effect-experiments-are-junk/

Questioning European Green

Three years until the lights go out

By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Oct 5, 2012

http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2012/10/5/three-years-until-the-lights-go-out.html

Power shortage risks by 2015, Ofgem warns

Britain risks running out of energy generating capacity in the winter of 2015-16, according to the energy regulator Ofgem.

By Staff Writers, BBC, Oct 5, 2012 [H/t Bishop Hill]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19842401

[SEPP Comment: Wind power will be no help on cold, still winter nights.]

Offshore wind prospects hit by grid costs

By Gerard Wynn, WAtoday, AU, Oct 3, 2012 [H/t GWPF]

http://www.watoday.com.au/environment/climate-change/offshore-wind-prospects-hit-by-grid-costs-20121003-26y5b.html

[SEPP Comment: It costs money to connect electricity generated by off-shore wind power to on shore consumers?]

Wind farms given £34m to switch off in bad weather: Households stung by secretive payments

By Sam Greenhill and Graham Grant, Mail Online, Sep 30, 2012 [H/t GWPF]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2210986/Wind-farms-given-34m-switch-bad-weather-Households-stung-secretive-payments.html

Questioning Green Elsewhere

The Limits of Wind Power

Very high wind penetrations are not achievable in practice due to the increased need for power storage, the decrease in grid reliability, and the increased operating costs

By William J. Korchinski and Julian Morris, Reason Foundation, October 4, 2012

http://reason.org/studies/show/the-limits-of-wind-power

Green-energy policy hurts America

By Diana Furchtgott-Roth, Market Watch, Oct 3, 2012 [H/t Cooler Heads]

http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-10-03/commentary/34227582_1_energy-policy-green-energy-green-energy

Expanding the Orthodoxy

Council of war gathers for world’s biodiversity crisis

By Staff Writers, Paris (AFP), Oct 05, 2012

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Council_of_war_gathers_for_worlds_biodiversity_crisis_999.html

[SEPP Comment: Efforts to save Earth’s natural resources? “Nearly half of amphibian species, a third of corals, a quarter of mammals, a fifth of all plants and 13 percent of the world's birds are at risk of extinction, according to the "Red List" compiled by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).”]

Interior Department seeks climate change advisers

By Ben Geman, The Hill, Oct 3, 2012

http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/259959-interior-department-seeks-climate-change-advisers-

Problems in the Orthodoxy

Kyoto: The last rites

Where better than the Qatari capital to perform the last rites over the Kyoto Protocol?

By Peter Glover, Commentator, Oct 1, 2012

http://www.thecommentator.com/article/1727/kyoto_the_last_rites

Al Gore Walks Away From Green Energy

By Bill Gunderson, The Street, Oct 4, 2012 [H/t GWPF]

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11727215/1/al-gore-walks-away-from-green-energy.html

Seeking a Common Ground

Can we predict the duration of an interglacial?

Perspective by William McClenney on the paper of the same title, WUWT, Oct 2, 2012

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/02/can-we-predict-the-duration-of-an-interglacial/

“Understanding The Impact Of Dam-Triggered Land Use/Land Cover Change On The Modification Of Extreme Precipitation” By Woldemichael Et Al 2012

By Roger Pielke Sr, Climate Science, Oct 5, 2012

http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2012/10/05/understanding-the-impact-of-dam-triggered-land-useland-cover-change-on-the-modification-of-extreme-precipitation-by-woldemichael-et-al-2012/

[SEPP Comment: Large scale dams and irrigation can intensify rainfall.]

Rebuilding public trust in science for policy-making: Japan perspective

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc, Oct 2, 2012

http://judithcurry.com/2012/10/02/rebuilding-public-trust-in-science-for-policy-making-japan-perspective/#more-10127

[SEPP Comment: Among the important omissions in the given list is that the products from models that have not undergone rigorous testing are speculation, not scientific knowledge and that difference must be emphasized.]

A Canadian View: Language Matters in Global-Warming Debate

By Tom Harris, The Epoch Times, Oct 3, 2012

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/opinion/a-canadian-view-language-matters-in-global-warming-debate-299275.html

Climate Sensitivity

Climate sensitivities in various papers

By Lubos Motl, Reference Frame, Oct 6, 2012

http://motls.blogspot.com/2012/10/climate-sensitivities-in-various-papers.html#more

Asten 2012

By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Oct 6, 2012

http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2012/10/6/asten-2012.html

New paper on climate sensitivity estimates 1.1 ± 0.4 °C for a doubling of CO2

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 5, 2012

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/05/new-paper-on-climate-sensitivity-estimates-1-1-%C2%B1-0-4-c-for-a-doubling-of-co2/#more-72012

Climate sensitivity and the Stern report

By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Oct 1, 2012

http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2012/10/1/climate-sensitivity-and-the-stern-report.html

Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

What have the Romans ever done for us?

By Simon, Australian Climate Madness, Oct 4, 2012

http://www.australianclimatemadness.com/2012/10/what-have-the-romans-ever-done-for-us/

Want to make a paper more alarming and appealing to coverage? Blame the Romans for climate change

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 4, 2012

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/04/want-to-make-a-paper-more-alarming-and-appealing-to-coverage-blame-the-romans-for-climate-change/

Sea-level study shows signs of things to come

By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Oct 05, 2012

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Sea_level_study_shows_signs_of_things_to_come_999.html

[SEPP Comment: Irreversible global warming will drown us – eventually.]

Not a problem for your children, or theirs (recurring)

By Lewis Page, The Register, Oct 3, 2012, [H/t GWPF]

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/10/03/sea_level_rise_barely_30cm_by_2100/

[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]

Great Barrier Reef coral halved in 27 years: study

By Staff Writers, Sydney (AFP), Oct 2, 2012

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Great_Barrier_Reef_coral_halved_in_27_years_study_999.html

Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

1 Billion To Die By 2030: Global Warming’s Deadly Rampage!

By William Briggs, His Blog, Sep 28, 2012 [H/t GWPF]

http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=6257

Climate hype via Hogwarts Lab

By Peter Foster, Financial Post, Oct 1, 2012

http://opinion.financialpost.com/2012/10/01/peter-foster-climate-hype-via-hogwarts-lab/

Not So Hot

The new climate-change study getting all the headlines is deliberately misleading. Too bad so many in the media got fooled.

By Bjorn Lomborg, Foreign Policy, Sep 28, 2012

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/09/28/not_so_hot

A Classic Tale of Global Warming Alarmism

By Patrick Michaels, World Climate Report, Oct 5, 2012

http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2012/10/05/a-classic-tale-of-global-warming-alarmism/#more-555

[SEPP Comment: Why a New York Times journalist should be reported to the UN’s High Commission on Data Torturing!]

Climate: Scepticism highest in US, Britain – poll

By Staff Writers, Paris (AFP), Oct 04, 2012

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Climate_Scepticism_highest_in_US_Britain_poll_999.html

[SEPP Comment: It is the belief that before human emissions of carbon dioxide, climate was stable that is unscientific.]

Climate skeptics gaining ground in media

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 5, 2012

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/05/climate-skeptics-gaining-ground-in-media/

[SEPP Comment: More survey silliness. A good link for a detailed critique of the ridiculous 97%.]

Models v. Observations

RS Workshop on Handling Uncertainty in Weather & Climate Prediction. Part I

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc, Oct 2, 2012

http://judithcurry.com/2012/10/02/rs-workshop-on-handling-uncertainty-in-weather-climate-prediction-part-i/#more-10086

[SEPP Comment: May have interesting results, hopefully.]

Measurement Issues

UAH V5.5 Global Temp. Update for Sept. 2012: +0.34 deg. C

By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Oct 5, 2012

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2012/10/uah-v5-5-global-temp-update-for-sept-2012-0-34-deg-c/

UAH Global Temperature Update for September, 2012: +?.?? deg. C

By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Oct 4, 2012

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2012/10/uah-global-temperature-update-for-september-2012-deg-c/

What Is the Sound of 130 Wind Turbines Turning?

Researchers record undersea sound at offshore wind farm site

By Kate Madin, Oceanus, Oct 5, 2012

http://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/cape-wind

[SEPP Comment: What may become an important experiment, taking measurements of the area before, during, and after construction of the wind farm.]

Changing Weather

Dr. Ryan Maue releases new hurricane frequency data showing a negative trend in the last 30 years

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Oct 1, 2012

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/01/dr-ryan-maue-releases-new-hurricane-frequency-data-showing-a-negative-trend-in-the-last-30-years/

Changing Climate

The regime shift of the 1920s and 1930s in the North Atlantic

Kenneth F. Drinkwater, Institute of Marine Research and Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, P.O. Box 1870 Nordnes, N-5817 Bergen, Norway, Progress in Ocenography, Feb-March 2006 [H/t Kenneth Towe]

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079661106000036

Antarctic Peninsula Warming, Time After Time

By Doug Hoffman, Reproduced by GWPF, Sep 24, 2012

http://www.thegwpf.org/doug-hoffman-antarctic-peninsula-warming-time-after-time/

[SEPP Comment: More on research reported previously.]

Changing Seas

Venice Lagoon research indicates rapid climate change in coastal regions

By Staff Writers, Southampton UK (SPX), Oct 05, 2012

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Venice_Lagoon_research_indicates_rapid_climate_change_in_coastal_regions_999.html

[SEPP Comment: Driven by urban heat island effect.]

Sea Level Fall Defies Climate Warnings

By Staff Writers, The Australian, From GWPF, Sep 29, 2012

http://www.thegwpf.org/sea-level-fall-defies-climate-warnings/

Changing Sea Ice

The 2012 Arctic Ice Melt – An Unusual Year

By David Whitehead, GWPF, Oct 2, 2012

http://www.thegwpf.org/the-2012-arctic-ice-melt-an-unusual-year/

Arctic Ice Confounds Models

By Doug Hoffman, Resilient Earth, Sep 30, 2012 [H/t GWPF]

http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/arctic-ice-confounds-models

Cold Hard Fact: Antarctic Sea Ice is at Record High

By Art Horn, Energy Tribune, Sep 28, 2012

http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm/11760/Cold-Hard-Fact-Antarctic-Sea-Ice-is-at-Record-High

According to NOAA data, all time Antarctic sea ice extent record was set on Sept 22nd, 2012

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 29, 2012

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/09/29/according-to-noaa-data-all-time-antarctic-sea-ice-rxtent-record-was-set-on-sept-22nd-2012/

[SEPP Comment: All time since satellite measurements started in 1979.]

Review of Recent Scientific Articles by NIPCC

For a full list of articles see www.NIPCCreport.org

The Mass Balance of the Karakoram Glaciers

Reference: Gardelle, J., Berthier, E. and Arnaud, Y. 2012. Slight mass gain of Karakoram glaciers in the early twenty-first century. Nature Geoscience 5: 322-325.

http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2012/oct/2oct2012a1.html

Northern Scandinavian Summer Temperatures of the Past Two Millennia

Reference: Esper, J., Buntgen, U., Timonen, M. and Frank, D.C. 2012. Variability and extremes of northern Scandinavian summer temperatures over the past two millennia. Global and Planetary Change 88-89: 1-9.

http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2012/oct/2oct2012a3.html

The Holocene Climate of the North Atlantic Region

Reference: Larsen, D.J., Miller, G.H., Geirsdottir, A. and Olafsdottir, S. 2012. Non-linear Holocene climate evolution in the North Atlantic: a high-resolution, multi-proxy record of glacier activity and environmental change from Hvitarvatn, central Iceland. Quaternary Science Reviews 39: 14-25..

http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2012/oct/3oct2012a2.html

Better Models Needed to Link Extreme Weather to Global Warming

Reference: Editorial (18 September 2012): Extreme Weather. Nature 489: 335-336 doi:10.1038/489335b.

http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2012/oct/3oct2012a5.html

[SEPP Comment: The call for better models ignores the most critical missing element in IPCC climate science – the need to understand climate history and what caused changes long before major emission of greenhouse gases.]

Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes

CO2 Credits and China

By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Oct 5, 2012

http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2012/10/05/co2-credits-and-

[SEPP Comment: Unlike California, in China economic growth is more important than CO2 emissions.]

Deutsche Bank Closes Down Climate Casino

By Administrator, GWPF, Oct 3, 2012

http://www.thegwpf.org/deutsche-bank-shuts-down-climate-department/

Subsidies and Mandates Forever

The bogus debate over fossil-fuel subsidies

By Peter Foster, Financial Post, Oct 4, 2012

http://opinion.financialpost.com/2012/10/04/peter-foster-the-bogus-debate-over-fossil-fuel-subsidies/

Subsidizing Big Wind: The Real Costs to Taxpayers

By Robert Bryce, Manhattan Institute, Oct 2012

http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/ir_25.htm#.UG2kclH5Xrq

EPA and other Regulators on the March

New House Bill Seeks to Reform EPA’s Science Advisory Board

By Sonel Patel, Power News, Oct 4, 2012

http://www.powermag.com/POWERnews/5038.html?hq_e=el&hq_m=2535577&hq_l=9&hq_v=5e660500d0

[SEPP Comment: A much needed effort.]

 

Less chemicals found in Wyo. fracking zone

By Staff Writers, UPI, Sep 28, 2012

http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2012/09/28/Less-chemicals-found-in-Wyo-fracking-zone/UPI-83601348861324/

New data out from Wyo. gas field with theorized fracking-pollution link, but no smoking gun

By Mead Gruver, AP, Sep 27, 2012

http://www.greenfieldreporter.com/view/story/49b6bc2dd50e49c5b1a53ae9359b0661/US–Fracking-Groundwater-Pollution

Giving in to fears of fracking

By Staff Writer, ACSH, Oct 2, 2012

http://www.acsh.org/giving-in-to-fears-of-fracking/

[SEPP Comment: Dr Gilbert Ross states that traveling from western New York towns into Pennsylvania is a bit like traveling during the cold war from East Germany to West Germany – one area is economically stagnant the other prosperous.]

Energy Issues – Non-US

The Shale Gas Boom: How Scared is the Kremlin?

By Jen Alic, Oil Price, Oct 4, 2012

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/The-Shale-Gas-Boom-How-Scared-is-the-Kremlin.html

[SEPP Comment: The US has overtaken Russia as the world’s largest natural gas producer, and has also overtaken Russia as the world’s second largest oil producer. The Sierra Club is opposed to expansion of all non-conventional production of oil and gas in the US. However, the Sierra Club does not have much political clout in Russia.]

Next cold war? Gas drilling boom rattles Russia

By Staff Writers, AP, Sep 30, 2012

http://online.wsj.com/article/APa101793a7eb4445dad3f3f797b5faa45.html

Spain Adds $32 Billion Power-System Bailout to Bank Rescue

By Ben Sills, Bloomberg, Oct 1, 2012 [H/t GWPF]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-01/spain-adds-32-billion-power-system-bailout-to-rescue-of-banks.html

Energy Issues — US

Liberating the Energy Economy: What Washington Must Do

By Mark P. Mills, Manhattan Institute, Sep 2012 [H/t Marita Noon]

http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/pgi_02.htm#.UGyEUlH5Xrp

America’s booming energy industry has emerged as the no. 1 job-creating sector of the U.S. economy

Mark J. Perry, Carpe Diem, via AEI, Oct 1, 2012

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2012/10/americas-booming-energy-industry-has-emerged-as-the-no-1-job-creating-sector-of-the-u-s-economy/

[SEPP Comment: The statistical techniques used are less than rigorous.]

Two visions for energy: Smugness or prosperity?

By Diana Furchtgott-Roth, Washington Examiner, Oct 2, 2012 [H/t Randy Randol]

http://washingtonexaminer.com/two-visions-for-energy-smugness-or-prosperity/article/2509613?custom_click=rss#.UGxGMU01_cg

U.S. Policies And Economic Doldrums Fuel Chinese Energy and Tech Grabs

By Larry Bell, Forbes, Oct 2, 2012

http://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/2012/10/02/u-s-policies-and-economic-doldrums-fuel-chinese-energy-and-tech-grabs/

US bars China wind farm deal on security grounds

By Staff Writers, Washington (AFP), Sept 28, 2012

http://www.winddaily.com/reports/US_bars_China_wind_farm_deal_on_security_grounds_999.html

Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?

The Natural Gas Revolution: Creator And Destroyer

By Al Fin, GWPF, Sep 30, 2012

http://www.thegwpf.org/the-natural-gas-revolution-creator-and-destroyer/

Energy Independence from Fracking

By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Oct 2, 2012

http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2012/10/02/energy-independence-from-fracking/

Even with fewer drill rigs, shale gas production continues to rise

By Andrew Maykuth, Philadelphia Inquirer, Oct 3, 2012

http://articles.philly.com/2012-10-03/business/34219187_1_gas-production-shale-gas-pennsylvania-s-marcellus-shale

Washington’s Control of Oil and Gas

Obama drilling chief: ‘Time-out’ might be needed as industry takes on more risk

By Ben Geman, The Hill, Oct 2, 2012

http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/259759-obama-drilling-chief-timeout-may-be-needed-as-industry-pushes-into-tougher-climates

[SEPP Comment: Another drilling moratorium in the making at the behest of the environmental industry?]

Return of King Coal?

Coal Will Continue to Build America

By Frank Clemente, Energy Facts Weekly, Oct 3, 2012

http://us1.campaign-archive1.com/?u=29bc7d5d85828d574f86c157a&id=a1b334de5f&e=

Brattle Report Projects Doubled Coal Retirement Estimates Ascribed to Low Gas Prices

By Sonel Patel, Power News, Oct 4, 2012

http://www.powermag.com/POWERnews/5036.html?hq_e=el&hq_m=2535577&hq_l=4&hq_v=5e660500d0

[SEPP Comment: Two issues: will the natural gas prices remain low and will EPA still force closing of coal plants?]

Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences

Canadian oil company ordered by EPA to intensify river cleanup

By Zack Colman. The Hill, Oct 3, 2012

http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/260063-epa-orders-greater-oil-sands-cleanup-as-enviros-make-keystone-link

[SEPP Comment: Ownership of a 60 year old pipeline continues to hurt Enbridge, which desired to build a much needed Keystone XL pipeline.]

Chevron Brazil Oil Spill Fallout Warning For All

By Andrés Cala, Energy Tribune, Oct 3, 2012

http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm/11774/Chevron-Brazil-Oil-Spill-Fallout-Warning-For-All

[SEPP Comment: Balancing the need to protect public welfare (environment) with the need attract capital and expertise necessary to expand oil development that enhances public welfare is challenging to bureaucrats of Brazil.]

Nuclear Energy and Fears

Restricting nuclear power has little effect on the cost of climate policies

By Staff Writers, Potsdam, Germany (SPX,) Oct 05, 2012

http://www.nuclearpowerdaily.com/reports/Restricting_nuclear_power_has_little_effect_on_the_cost_of_climate_policies_999.html

[SEPP Comment: Another Made As Instructed numbers game. Restrict CO2 emissions, then calculate the GDP losses with or without nuclear power. The maximum cost of no nuclear is about 20% of climate policy costs. The article does not mention GDP losses from erratic alternative energy, which is considered a substitute for base-load, reliable nuclear. ]

Nuclear safety upgrade needed ‘nearly everywhere’ in Europe

By Staff Writers, Brussels (AFP), Oct 04, 2012

http://www.nuclearpowerdaily.com/reports/Nuclear_safety_upgrade_needed_nearly_everywhere_in_Europe_999.html

Swiss energy strategy relies on imports and gas

By Staff Writers, WNN, Oct 1, 2012

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NP-Swiss_energy_strategy_relies_on_gas-0110127.html

[SEPP Comment: Costs of phasing out nuclear.]

Construction of Japanese reactor to resume

By Staff Writers, WNN, Oct 1, 2012

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NN-Construction_of_Japanese_reactor_to_resume-0110124.html

Green Jobs?

Has the time come for us to rethink green jobs policies?

By Diana Furchtgott-Roth, Daily Mail, Oct 3, 2012 [H/t GWPF]

http://furchtgottroth.dailymail.co.uk/2012/10/the-futility-of-green-jobs-policies.html

$1.3 billion for 288 jobs: The failure of government-subsidized renewable energy: Another reason why government shouldn’t pick winners and losers in the economy

By Andy Mathews, Nevada Business, Oct 1, 2012

http://www.nevadabusiness.com/2012/10/1-3-billion-for-288-jobs-the-failure-of-government-subsidized-renewable-energy-another-reason-why-government-shouldnt-pick-winners-and-losers-in-the-economy/

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

Why Can’t We Get All Our Electricity from Wind?

By Marlo Lewis, Global Warming, Oct 4, 2012

http://www.globalwarming.org/2012/10/04/why-cant-we-get-all-our-electricity-from-wind/

Quote from Shakespeare that applies to wind power: “When Shakespeare’s Owen Glendower boasted, ‘I can call spirits from the vasty deep,’ Henry Hotspur replied: ‘Why, so can I, or so can any man; but will they come when you do call for them?’ Like Glendower’s spirits, the winds answer to no man.”

Bigger wind turbines make greener electricity

By Staff Writers, Washington DC (SPX), Oct 05, 2012

http://www.winddaily.com/reports/Bigger_wind_turbines_make_greener_electricity_999.html

Glut of Solar Panels Poses a New Threat to China

By Keith Bradsher, NYT, Oct 4, 2012

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/business/global/glut-of-solar-panels-is-a-new-test-for-china.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all

[SEPP Comment: Given the promotion of alternative energy in the US by the Times, this article is strange.]

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other

Are the days of the European biodiesel industry numbered?

By Sonja van Renssen, European Energy Review, Oct 4, 2012

http://www.europeanenergyreview.eu/site/pagina.php?email=ken@haapala.com&id_mailing=315&toegang=ad13a2a07ca4b7642959dc0c4c740ab6&id=3878

[SEPP Comment: Leak drafts of a report that was due in 2010 indicate Biofuels may not be the future. The food v. fuel and reports the CO2 emissions are not reduced may spell trouble.]

Biofuels industry lauds automakers for approving higher ethanol fuel blend

By Zack Colman, The Hill, Oct 2, 2012

http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/259785-biofuels-industry-lauds-automakers-for-approving-higher-ethanol-fuel-blend

[SEPP Comment: Forget car owners and damage to existing cars, full speed ahead.]

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles

Electric cars ‘pose environmental threat’

Electric cars might pollute much more than petrol or diesel-powered cars, according to new research.

By Staff Writers, BBC, Oct 4, 2012

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19830232

Electric Cars Are Far Too Expensive’

By Staff Writers, Spiegel, Oct 2, 2012

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/german-press-review-on-disappointing-sales-of-electric-cars-a-859172.html

“The electric car is a good idea, even if the automobile industry doesn’t seem to think so…” “If we don’t create incentives, then the whole thing is going to fail,” the [Green] party said in a statement.

[SEPP Comment: Politicians and bureaucrats in Washington are not alone in ignoring consumer sensibility.]

Oh Mann!

Huffington Post Alarmist story featuring Mann and Climate Central full of errors and omissions

By Joseph D’Aleo, Weatherbell.com, Oct 6, 2012

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/huffington_post_story_featuring_mann_and_climate_central_full_of_errors1/

Other Scientific News

Misconduct Widespread in Retracted Science Papers, Study Finds

By Carl Zimmer, NYT, Oct 1, 2012

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/02/science/study-finds-fraud-is-widespread-in-retracted-scientific-papers.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20121002

Too Little Nitrogen May Restrain Carbon Storage Capability Of Plants

By Staff Writers, Minneapolis MN (SPX), Oct 04, 2012

http://www.seeddaily.com/reports/Too_Little_Nitrogen_May_Restrain_Carbon_Storage_Capability_Of_Plants_999.html

Tree rings go with the flow of the Amazon

By Staff Writers, Leeds UK (SPX). Oct 05, 2012

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Tree_rings_go_with_the_flow_of_the_Amazon_999.html

[SEPP Comment: Can growth rings in certain tropical trees be used to estimate changes in precipitation?]

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BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:

The Matt Damon movie that blasts fracking was partly funded by Abu Dhabi

Joshua Berlinger, Business Insider, Oct 4, 2012

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/10/04/the-matt-damon-movie-that-blasts-fracking-was-partly-funded-by-abu-dhabi/

Scaling down: Warming will make fish smaller

By Staff Writers, Paris (AFP,) Sept 30, 2012

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Scaling_down_Warming_will_make_fish_smaller_999.html

[SEPP Comment: See link immediately below.]

Shrinking Nemo – global warming to make fish smaller

By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 30, 2012

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/09/30/shrinking-nemo-global-warming-to-make-fish-smaller/

[SEPP Comment: Taking on a study that claims that warming oceans will lead to less dissolved oxygen therefore smaller fish. Yet, the ocean acidification fans claim that the oceans that are warming will contain more dissolved carbon dioxide, thus poison fish.]

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9 thoughts on “Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup

  1. From the report “The controversy will continue. But, what is interesting is the wide range of estimates of climate sensitivity with the median estimates ranging from 0.7 deg C to 8 deg C. Until this issue is empirically resolved, model projections are simply sophisticated speculation.”

    I have noted that the trend of the rise of temperatures since around 1850 has not changed in the era when CO2 concentrations have risen rapidly. There seems to be no CO2 signal in any temperature/time graph. This does not prove anything, but it does give a strong indication that the total climate sensitivity of CO2 is indistinguishable from zero.

    See

    http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/compress:12/plot/gistemp/compress:12/detrend:0.1/offset:-0.075/plot/hadcrut3vgl/scale:0.00001/detrend:-0.83/offset:-0.35/plot/hadcrut3vgl/scale:0.0001/detrend:-0.83/offset:-0.9/plot/hadcrut3vgl/scale:0.0001/detrend:-0.83/offset:-0.64/plot/hadcrut3vgl/scale:0.00001/offset:2/plot/hadcrut3vgl/scale:0.00001/offset:-2

  2. This is one skeptic who doesn’t believe that ANY climate change can be attributed to human-emitted CO2. The effect is statistically ionsignificant compared to the variability of CO2 activity, let alone the totality thereof; and CO2 in turn is statistically insignificant compared to the variability of any and all other factors, let alone the totality of any of them. An infinitesimal of an infinitesimal. These facts are irrefutably proven by simple observation and even simpler arithmetic. And no one can “do the match” so as to determine any such effect of human activity with any certainty or accuracy. The problem is too complex mathematically, with more unknown factors and unknown sigmas than known. If anyone claims they can solve this problem, prove it! You’re lying through your teeth

    AGW is corrupt politics and theft of taxpayer money, not science

  3. If the upcoming Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), due out in 2013, fails to address climate history, its science will be biased and unreliable.

    True, but regrettably also true without the “If”?

  4. Chad Wozniak says:
    October 7, 2012 at 9:08 pm
    “And no one can “do the match” so as to determine any such effect of human activity with any certainty or accuracy. The problem is too complex mathematically, with more unknown factors and unknown sigmas than known.”

    Chad, an examination of the statistics of two time series can be used to examine possible causation, and if causation is possible, with what lag time. The keyword is Granger causality.
    This test has been done for the time series of CO2 concentration and global average temperature by Beenstock and Reingewertz

    http://economics.huji.ac.il/facultye/beenstock/Nature_Paper091209.pdf

    and their test ruled out the possibility of a causation of temperature anomaly by CO2 concentrations. They were not able to rule out the possibility of a derivative of the CO2 concentration being the cause of part of the temperature anomaly.

    This would be consistent with the behaviour of a negative feedback circuit with a lag time in the feedback loop.

  5. “Figueres spoke at a press briefing during a Washington, D.C., conference hosted by the International Emissions Trading Association.”
    No conflict of interest there, then.

  6. “Humans added plenty greenhouse gases before industrialisation”
    The author’s quote methane emissions annually were greater during the Roman Period
    than that of all the current world landfill sites. Do these “scientists” know that the population of the entire Roman Empire was around 40-50 million, around the beginning of the common era; the population of the world was about 300 million. Augustus’s census indicated some 4 million Roman citizens and a later census put the male population around 910,000. Here is a link with slightly different figures (I don’t have the original one):

    http://www.romanlife-romeitaly.com/population-of-rome.html

    Going back to those bad Greek pollutors in case you have another paper in the workds, if you’ve read Herodotus’s Histories, Thucydides’s The Peloponnesian War (~500 BC) and other histories, you will be amazed that sieges carried on for a decade involved only a few thousand men. The population of the entire country was 300,000.

    For an entire World with a population less than that of the USA, a Roman Empire with the population of South Africa, and a Roman citizenry about the size of Houston, you are going to have to find a natural source for all this gas!

  7. DirkH –
    Your analysis would be correct except for the many factors, as I pointed out, that are unknown and whose variability, in particular, are unknown. It may well be that whoever did this analysis did it correctly based on the information they had – the problem is that it is impossible to have complete information to input into the calculation. Also, when values and their sigmas change by the minute, as soon as they do the analysis based on them becomes invalid.

    In any case, the historical record, including recently, does rule out CO2 as a significant factor in climate change – as it has been for at least the last 1-1/2 billion years, ever since blue-green algae converted the originally 20 percent CO2 in the atmosphere to the minuscule amounts we have today.

  8. I’m new at this and don’t know where to put this so I’m putting it here.
    In controversial scientific and technical matters, I try to consult sources from before the controversy. All of you probably know this already, but for what it is worth here is what Isaac Asimov wrote: Isaac Asimov; The Ends of the Earth – The Polar Regions of the World; Weybright and Talley, New York, © 1975; pp 323 & 324:

    In 1953, American geologists Maurice Ewing and William L. Donn suggested that this [alternating glacials and interglacials] might be the result of the peculiar geography of the Northern Hemisphere. The Arctic region is almost entirely oceanic, but the Arctic Ocean is not free and open. Rather, it is [nearly] landlocked, with large continental masses hemming it in on all sides.
    Consider what would happen in such a case. Imagine the Earth’s temperature to be a trifle warmer than it is today [1975] so that there is little or no sea ice in the Arctic Ocean and so that it is an unbroken stretch of liquid surface
    The Arctic Ocean would then serve as a source of water vapor which, cooling in the upper atmosphere, would fall as snow. The snow that fell back into the Arctic Ocean would melt, but the snow that fell on the surrounding continental masses would accumulate. Year after year the snow would accumulate, little by little, and the glaciers would form and expand.
    The existence of the glaciers would lower the average temperature of the Earth by reflecting back much of the sunlight that fell on them, and slowly sea ice in the Arctic Ocean would form and expand.
    Although ice also yields water vapor, it does so in smaller quantities than liquid water does. This means that the more sea ice there is and the smaller the area of open water, the less water vapor is lifted into the atmosphere.
    In the Antarctic, even if the sea ice rimming Antarctica expands, there is always a vast free ocean beyond to serve as a vapor reservoir. In the Arctic, however, when the Arctic Ocean freezes, there is comparatively little other ocean in the neighborhood to serve as an alternate reservoir that can supply water vapor that will reach the northern landmasses before precipitation elsewhere.
    Therefore, as the Arctic Ocean freezes, the quantity of snowfall over Canada, Scandinavia, and Siberia, decreases. This means that even though little of the ice melts in the summer, still less ice will form in the increasingly snowless winters – and the glaciers start to retreat.
    As the glaciers retreat, the temperature of the Earth rises slowly and the glaciers retreat still faster (as long as the Arctic Ocean remains frozen). Finally, North America and Eurasia are free of the continental ice sheets while the Arctic Ocean is still covered with sea ice – and that is the situation today. [1975]
    Greenland, which is a small Antarctica, a polar landmass entirely surrounded by water, has an ocean to the south that remains as a vapor reservoir even when the ocean to the north freezes, so it retains its ice cap. Its ice cap may survive the interglacials, as it seems to be surviving the present one.
    In the course of an interglacial, however, as the temperature continues to rise, the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean begins to shrink in area (already [1975] it only covers some four-fifths of the ocean) and eventually disappears altogether, leaving the Arctic Ocean unbroken liquid surface once more.
    As the Arctic sea ice melts, the water vapor delivered into the the atmosphere increases in the polar region, and so does the snowfall, so that the whole thing starts over again.
    In other words, it is, paradoxically, a warming trend that initiates a glaciation, and long enough period of cooling that heralds the start of deglaciation. [emphasis added]

    The information in square brackets, [], is from me. The rest, except typos, is a direct quote. I am not an attorney, but I do not believe a short quote from the text is breaking copyright law. The good doctor believed AGW, but not, as far as I can tell, CAGW. He very rarely got his facts or scientific history wrong.
    The present interglacial started something like 10,000 years ago, depending upon your source up to 18,000 years ago. The recorded temperature rise from 1850 or 1950 is exceptional neither in amount nor rate. This strongly suggest AGW, till now, is incorrect.
    There has been global cooling, or at least no appreciable global warming, for ten to sixteen years, depending upon the source used. This means a minimum of three times that, 30 to 48 years, is necessary to give a bare indication of AGW statistically. Five times that, 50 to 80 years, would begin to show some indication. Ten times that, 100, to 160 years would show a reasonable indication. And, fifty times that, 500 to 800 years, would be required to provide almost incontrovertible proof.
    Someone, please, jump in your time machine and find out.
    All prior Pleistocene and Holocene interglacials have been short compared with the glacials. This means there are strong negative feedback mechanisms. I have yet to find what negative feedback mechanisms are actually included in AGW models. If anyone knows and knows their weighting, please inform me.
    In order to provide a baseline proof of concept for the global warming models it is necessary to show that without AGW they would show a temperature rise, a peak, and falling temperature into the next glacial. The next glacial was almost universally accepted prior to the AGW models and matches well known prior occurrences.
    Better would be to run the models over the time of a previously interglacial where the entire up and down temperature cycle is reasonably well known.
    This is simple, but extremely difficult, because the models must be run over a much longer time than can reasonably be done by the most powerful super computer, or so I have read.
    At absolute minimum the models must be run without any AGW effects, and compared with actual global temperatures and temperatures produced when run with AGW effects. Remember it has already been warming for 10,000 years or more, and all climatic positive feedbacks are involved in global warming, regardless of whether caused by humans or not.
    To the best of my knowledge no AGW modeler has ever furnished:
    1) All the actual starting data used, its sources, its tweaking, and the reasons for the tweaking.
    2) The equations used in the models.
    3) The algorithms developed from these equations.
    4) The documentation, internal and external, for the computer code used.
    5) The actual computer code used.
    Science is, “Fearlessly Find, Follow, and Furnish the Facts.” (F^5). The AGW modelers have repeatedly refused to do this. The motto of The Royal Society is “Nullis in Verba”, loosely translated from the Latin as, “On no one’s word.”, or, “Nothing from authority.” So, do not believe me nor anyone else about scientific or technical matters without checking, and if I or they won’t allow you to check, don’t believe me or them at all.
    Unless and until this is done it is not science. It does not matter how many models are done by how many people It does not matter who the people doing this are. It does not matter by what institutions it is done. It does not matter what the consensus is. Nulis in Verba.
    There is a relatively new thing called Cloud Computing. Release the code and data. There are plenty of competent computer programmers on the Internet, and widely available open source software developed without any official aid or interference. How many people would allow their personal computers to be used to run the code while the computers weren’t otherwise in use? Would enough be willing to equal or exceed super computer power? I do not know. We will never know until it is attempted.

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