“West Nile virus spreads faster,” reads the USA Today headline on a story that doesn’t actually say anything about rate of spread, just that the virus is spreading, as one would expect for a pathogen that was first seen in North America only thirteen years ago:
It’s going to get worse, says David Dausey, a professor of public health at Mercyhurst University in Erie, Pa.
But no, this professional epidemiologist is not talking about the typical pattern of advance for a virulent new disease. Dausey is talking about a much smaller and vastly less certain factor:
He says climate change means warmer winters, milder springs and hotter summers, all of which “create a longer season for mosquitoes to breed and ideal conditions for them to survive.” That will mean more West Nile and, public health workers worry, other mosquito-borne diseases such as yellow fever, malaria and dengue fever, Dausey says.
So the fast spread of West Nile (or “faster” if you prefer) is not because this dangerous disease was only recently introduced (a fact not mentioned in the article), but because of global warming, even though neither the globe, nor the contiguous United States, have warmed since West Nile first appeared here, thirteen years ago, in 1999:
Then there’s this inconvenient report from last December:
Transmission of infectious parasites slows with rising temperatures, researchers find.
… The study was done with rodent malaria, but the researchers, at PennsylvaniaStateUniversity in University Park, expect the pattern to apply to human malaria and possibly to other mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue fever and West Nile virus.
Dausey is also from Pennsylvania. Maybe he ought to get out a little, or talk to someone besides the warming alarmists who control all the grant money. No credit to USA Today‘s Elizabeth Weise either. It’s not like its actually a mystery why West Nile is spreading, but our politicized media doesn’t want readers to know the truth. They only care about manipulating people for perceived partisan advantage.
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One word….DDT. [snip – while possibly true, it will create an ugliness in this thread I just don’t have time to moderate – Anthony]
You get the feeling that if a cold winter wiped out this disease they would be really disappointed.
Always beware of science announcements from higher ed institutions that believe knowledge in a textbook is soo 20th century if not 19th and earlier.
http://www.mercyhurst.edu/news/news-releases/article/?article_id=2674
I really hate this idea that no one gets to know anything they have not directly experienced and that everybody gets their own perception.
I am sure an NSF or DoED or NOAA climate change grant would be nice and helpful. Dausey does charitable work to get wheelchairs to the diasbled and immobile in developing countries which is a noble effort. But it appears to be in connection with the WHO which means an acute amount of nonsense is in the air.
In all fairness I assume the response would be it started spreading thanks to the warming prior to the last thirteen years?
Mosquitoes need standing, still water to reproduce. They don’t do well in drought.
I thought they made it clear what the cause was this year:
“A mild winter and ample spring rains allowed the mosquito population to build up early. Heat and scant rainfall are creating stagnant water pools, which make great breeding grounds, says Michael Merchant, an entomologist at the Texas AgriLife Extension Service in Dallas.”
“… the occurrence of human West Nile cases were associated with drought 2-6 months prior and land surface wetting 0.5-1.5 mo prior.
“…Drought brings avian hosts and vector mosquitoes into close contact and facilitates the epizootic cycling ….
“…widespread drought in the spring followed by wetting during summer greatly increase the probability of a WNV epidemic in southern Florida.”
( from Journal Medical Entimology’s 2005 “Drought-induced amplification and epidemic transmission of West Nile virus in southern Florida”)
The ability to eradicate mosquito borne disease is readily available. It is called DDT. Theri is a plethora of legitimate research that concludes that DDT does not pose a danger to humans, animals or birds.
The warmists should point out to this guy that WNV is transmitted by mosquitoes.
Mosquitoes need standing water to breed.
The AGW orthodoxy has already claimed that droughts will be worse, and last longer, so there won’t be any standing water for the bugs to breed in.
Unless someone is developing a strain of mosquitoes that don’t need any water – Culex anhydrensis?
Here’s a question: Given it already has been spotted over the entire USA, where is it spreading to?
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvbid/westnile/Mapsactivity/surv&control12MapsAnybyState.htm
There is always DDT.
http://www.ecoworld.com/animals/bring-back-ddt.html
One of the largest malaria outbreaks was in St. Petersburg Russia in the early 1800’s…
Sorry for going OT. Has Jo Nova been hacked again? I’ve been off line since Sunday, but on returning I’m getting
‘Account Suspended’ from
http://www.joannenovo.com.au
Is anyone else getting in or is something else going on ?
I know she was hacked around 6 Aug, but seemed to recover.
Dr. Suzuki says global warming is a culprit.
David Suzuki: How environmental destruction causes illnesses and diseases
http://www.straight.com/article-755311/vancouver/david-suzuki-how-environmental-destruction-causes-illnesses-and-diseases
West Nile cases peaked in 2003 at close to 10,000 cases in the US. 2012’s numbers appear to be down about 80% to 90% from the 2003 levels. The reservoir for the virus has declined as immunity has built up in other host species.
WattsUp at JoNova ?
I’m getting. ‘Account Suspended’ from
http://www.joannenova.com.au
So the rate of getting worse is going to get worse than we thought?
Also keep in mind that the virus originally was imported into New York City via ship from Africa.
It did not gradually spread north from tropical climates as “climate warmed.”
@ur momisugly paddylol “The ability to eradicate mosquito borne disease is readily available. It is called DDT. Theri is a plethora of legitimate research that concludes that DDT does not pose a danger to humans, animals or birds.”
Really??
“Even small amounts of DDT can affect small microorganisms. This is especially true for microorganisms that live in the water (i.e. algae, and plankton), because the aquatic environment can bring more DDT in contact with these organisms.
As an example of this high sensitivity, water that contains only 0.1 (g (micrograms) of DDT per liter can slow down growth and photosynthesis in green algae. ”
“So exactly how much DDT can my body tolerate before I should really start worrying? That depends on how much you weigh. At concentration above 236 mg DDT per kg of body weight, you’ll die. Concentration of 6-10 mg/kg leads to such symptons as headache, nausea, vomiting, confusion, and tremors. ”
http://www.chem.duke.edu/~jds/cruise_chem/pest/effects.html
Brant
[Reply: 236 mg/kg is a LOT of DDT! ~dbs, mod.]
Lots of mossies in Alaska where I understand that it is quite cold during the winter.
Interesting to note that even the BBC are highlighting the fact that not all alarmism is productive…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19269571
David Sanger says:
August 15, 2012 at 10:27 am
“A mild winter and ample spring rains allowed the mosquito population to build up early. Heat and scant rainfall are creating stagnant water pools, which make great breeding grounds, says Michael Merchant, an entomologist at the Texas AgriLife Extension Service in Dallas.”
“Heat and scant rainfall are creating stagnant water pools…”
That’s quite a trick. Those pools must be rather deep if they are seldom replenished because of the scant rainfall.
I’d be willing to wager that Weise hasn’t any idea:
(a) that the Centers for Disease Control were put in Atlanta, Georgia, in 1943 because it was ground zero for U.S. malaria troubles (the original name of the organization was the Office of National Defense Malaria Control Activities)
(b) that yellow fever plagued New York City from the late 17th century onward, with 2086 souls claimed during a single outbreak in 1798
(c) that the Hamptons culture of getting away from NYC during summer was in response to yellow fever
More on yellow fever in New York here:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC194570/pdf/mlab00256-0013.pdf
More on correcting climate-related disinformation here:
http://amzn.to/xam4iF
Anyone who wants to buy a copy for Weise and send it to her at USA Today would be doing the world a favor
Several relevant references in an NAS report on climate change and the indoor environment re pests and DDT. There is also an earlier, more general report from 2001 on climate change and human health, the bottom line of which is that more monitoring and response could, at least in the near term deal with the issues.
oldseadog says:
August 15, 2012 at 11:50 am
Lots of mossies in Alaska where I understand that it is quite cold during the winter
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Siberia too. I got blood poisoning from a mozzie in Oxford, UK in 1972. Before CAGW was even a twinkle in the Climate Jihadis’s eyes…