UAH global temperature for June 2012: up slightly

Interestingly, while the media blames the current heatwave on Global Warming, we are seeing some of the most active solar flares in quite some time happening this week.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-205_162-57466468/sun-fires-off-fourth-of-july-solar-flares/
CO2 hasn’t dramitically gone up this past week, has it????
Coincidence????
Hopefully somebody out there is watching the Sun.

And while at it, I suggest to “bold” the horizontal 0.2C horizontal
“21 Cty line”…(plateau-line)
Cheers and thanks JS…..

Having just been noticing how much summer-winter temperature swings increased in arctic ice plots recently, it is noticeable such has been happening globally too in the most recent years if one looks closely at the UAH plot.
mid-2010 summer (from a northern hemisphere perspective) = extra hot
end-of-2010 winter = extra cold
mid-2011 summer = extra hot
end-of-2011 winter = extra cold
mid-2012 summer = extra hot
end of 2012 winter = maybe extra cold again (perhaps a bit warmer than the last 2 winters though as mid-solar-cycle) — we’ll see
Some of ENSO-related effects may be tending to be around 4 years apart, perhaps being in part a 4 year ocean oscillation aside from other oscillations and solar related effects on top. 2010 had major warming from such. 2006 and 2002 probably did. 1998 obviously did.
If so, the next would be around warming up through 2014. Plus the solar cycle hasn’t completed its peak yet.
So post-2014 would be when cooling seems likely. Then one can see how it compares to the prediction at http://www.ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/apr/article/view/14754

Roy, if you know anything about statistics and probability theory you would know that you can be 99.5% sure from my results on a random sample of 45 weather stations that global warming stopped somewhere in 1994.
http://www.letterdash.com/henryp/global-cooling-is-here
Your results off late showing an uptrend do not make sense. I would check the sensors?
The nature of the relationship that I find between the warming and cooling of the earth over the past 37 years is binominal (parabolic), indicating a natural process. At the end of the day, it is clear (to me) that the cooling and warming component caused by an increase/decrease in CO2 /H20 has cancelled each other out.
Whether that natural process of warming/cooling involves the sun-UV-ozone factor, is what I am still trying to figure out.
(BTW, by adding a few more weather stations to my sample, I have now ramped up my correlation coefficient for the drop in maxima to 0.996).

Just following the curve…
The next point should then be lower but hopefully the North-West will stay warm and dry for July and August… fed up with cold and wet weather!

It appears that for the last two years now the monthly temps have been diviating significantly from the average months of the reference period.
There is a clear annual cycle in the “anomalies” that shows increased seasonal variation in the NH is dominating the global mean. The lesser inertia of NH would probably cause its changes to be larger and to dominate any such change in behaviour.
In particular cooler winters make deep troughs. Since most of the warming was caused by warmer winters I would suggest this probably a clear sign that we are entering actual cooling returning to a pattern that predates the satellite record shown here.
This is what is found by looking at rate of change of SST in ICOADS
http://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/icoads_monthly_adj0_40-triple1.png?w=600&h=620
Part of this article of the questionable Hadley adjustments
http://judithcurry.com/2012/03/15/on-the-adjustments-to-the-hadsst3-data-set-2/#comment-188237
The middle plot of that panel of three shows rate of change fitted to three cyclic terms plus a linear rate of change.
Once the cyclic nature is accounted for the linear increase is about 0.4 K/century not the more usual 0.7 K/c
The fit shows rate of change crossed zero in about 2008 and has a small negative value (cooling) for the last few years.

Henry Clark:
>>
Some of ENSO-related effects may be tending to be around 4 years apart, perhaps being in part a 4 year ocean oscillation aside from other oscillations and solar related effects on top. 2010 had major warming from such. 2006 and 2002 probably did. 1998 obviously did.
If so, the next would be around warming up through 2014. Plus the solar cycle hasn’t completed its peak yet.
So post-2014 would be when cooling seems likely.
>>
For all the reasons you state it may be a bit later than 2014 before the cooling hits hard. The graph I linked above http://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/icoads_monthly_adj0_40-triple1.png suggests it will be near 2020 before it really kicks in. Then we could be seeing cooling on the scale of the warming of 1920s and 30s.
Luckily we’ll be starting from “unprecidented” highs but it looks like cooling will be rude.

Jim says:

If you look at the sinusoidal curve, it looks like its starting to fall too. This would be in line with what Corbyn and Bastardi and others have been predicting, with global temperatures falling to LIA levels.

You mean the curve that says “for entertainment purposes only”? Apparently, you are enjoying the entertainment! I have a suggestion for you, instead of fitting a 4th order curve to the data, try a 2nd order one. It has an upward curvature and would predict the temperature anomaly will be ~1.37 C by 2046. While neither fit is likely to have much predictive value, I’d be willing to bit that the latter one will be much closer to the truth than that of the 4th order fit or any fantasies of Corbyn and Bastardi.

“Brian D says:
Interactive temp graph is no longer on the Discover site. Gone forever?”
Nope. Sill there.

JJ where? The link in the menu on the left at their main page isn’t there.
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/
Did they move it?

joeldshore: While neither fit is likely to have much predictive value, I’d be willing to bit that the latter one will be much closer to the truth than that of the 4th order fit or any fantasies of Corbyn and Bastardi.
Well that’s your “fantasy”. Any reason we should give that any more credence than two guys who actually have a reason to hold the opinions they do?
Why would you want to fit a quadratic to the rising 30 year part of a 60 year cycle and extrapolate forwards. This is mistake/fallacy upon which Hansen’s now seriously failed 1998 senarios were based.
The ensueing decade of observations has shown those predications to be wildly off. What reason do you have for still subscribing to that fantasy?
BTW I agree Spencer’s “entertainment” polynomial is pretty dumb. He posts it with a disclaimer knowing full well most people will ignore it and see it as predictive. Maybe he should fit a spline, then no one would know where it would go next.

I agree it’s rather stupid to put an “entertainment polynomial” on a graph that should be unbiased scientific data. Leave the polynomial and your views out of your data products.