The Arctic sea ice extent forecasting contest is on again. As before I’ll allow readers to submit their best estimates in a poll, and I’ll submit those results as we’ve done in the past two years. Last year, the forecast submitted by reader poll was a bit high, probably due to optimism that abounds here as opposed to the gloomy outlooks submitted by others.
This year, due to the near normal excursions, it might be tempting to again submit a significantly higher value than 5.0 million square kilometers, it might also be tempting to “pull a Zwally” and declare the sea ice will be gone entirely. I don’t recommend either forecast.
Here, you can read the post season summary from 2011.
And here are the guidelines for 2012 submissions.
The SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook organizers are now soliciting pan-arctic and regional outlooks for the 2012 season. We encourage past and new contributors to participate.
The 2012 Outlook season will be a transition year to an expanded Outlook in 2013; this year, we would like to focus on expanding discussion of ice thickness, expanding discussion of the relative performance of different Outlook techniques, and improving access to relevant outlook data (see “Data Resources” webpage at: http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/data.php). So in addition to the pan-arctic and regional outlook contributions, we invite any information or input to those topics as well.
JUNE REPORT (using May data). Deadline for contributions:
4 June. Publish reports online: 11 June.
JULY REPORT (using June data). Deadline for contributions: 2 July.
Publish reports online: 10 July.
AUGUST REPORT (using July data). Deadline for contributions: 2 August.
Publish reports online: 10 August.
SEPTEMBER REPORT (brief updates based on August data). Deadline for contributions: 4 September. Publish updates online: 10 September.
MINIMUM ANNOUNCEMENT. Based on the National Snow and Ice Data Center’s
(NSIDC) announcement for minimum.
POST-SEASON SYNOPSIS (exact dates dependent on when minimum is reached).
Deadline for contributions: early October. Publish post-season synopsis: late October.
Consider and study the current situation at the WUWT Sea Ice reference page.
I’ll put up the poll in a few days for the June 4th deadline and WUWT readers can make the collective forecast then.