From the Harvard School of Public Health , news that an extra 1°C temperature swing in summer will kill the elderly.
Summer temperature variability may increase mortality risk for elderly with chronic disease
Large day-to-day variations in temperature could result in thousands more deaths per year
Boston, MA – New research from Harvard School of Public Health (HSPH) suggests that seemingly small changes in summer temperature swings—as little as 1°C more than usual—may shorten life expectancy for elderly people with chronic medical conditions, and could result in thousands of additional deaths each year. While previous studies have focused on the short-term effects of heat waves, this is the first study to examine the longer-term effects of climate change on life expectancy.
The study will be published online April 9, 2012 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
“The effect of temperature patterns on long-term mortality has not been clear to this point. We found that, independent of heat waves, high day to day variability in summer temperatures shortens life expectancy,” said Antonella Zanobetti, senior research scientist in the Department of Environmental Health at HSPH and lead author of the study. “This variability can be harmful for susceptible people.”
In recent years, scientists have predicted that climate change will not only increase overall world temperatures but will also increase summer temperature variability, particularly in mid-latitude regions such as the mid-Atlantic states of the U.S. and sections of countries such as France, Spain, and Italy. These more volatile temperature swings could pose a major public health problem, the authors note.
Previous studies have confirmed the association between heat waves and higher death rates. But this new research goes a step further. Although heat waves can kill in the short term, the authors say, even minor temperature variations caused by climate change may also increase death rates over time among elderly people with diabetes, heart failure, chronic lung disease, or those who have survived a previous heart attack.
The researchers used Medicare data from 1985 to 2006 to follow the long-term health of 3.7 million chronically ill people over age 65 living in 135 U.S. cities. They evaluated whether mortality among these people was related to variability in summer temperature, allowing for other things that might influence the comparison, such as individual risk factors, winter temperature variance, and ozone levels. They compiled results for individual cities, then pooled the results.
They found that, within each city, years when the summer temperature swings were larger had higher death rates than years with smaller swings. Each 1°C increase in summer temperature variability increased the death rate for elderly with chronic conditions between 2.8% and 4.0%, depending on the condition. Mortality risk increased 4.0% for those with diabetes; 3.8% for those who’d had a previous heart attack; 3.7% for those with chronic lung disease; and 2.8% for those with heart failure. Based on these increases in mortality risk, the researchers estimate that greater summer temperature variability in the U.S. could result in more than 10,000 additional deaths per year.
In addition, the researchers found the mortality risk was 1% to 2% greater for those living in poverty and for African Americans. The risk was 1% to 2% lower for people living in cities with more green space.
Mortality risk was higher in hotter regions, the researchers found. Noting that physiological studies suggest that the elderly and those with chronic conditions have a harder time than others adjusting to extreme heat, they say it’s likely these groups may also be less resilient than others to bigger-than-usual temperature swings.
“People adapt to the usual temperature in their city. That is why we don’t expect higher mortality rates in Miami than in Minneapolis, despite the higher temperatures,” said Joel Schwartz, professor of environmental epidemiology at HSPH and senior author of the paper. “But people do not adapt as well to increased fluctuations around the usual temperature. That finding, combined with the increasing age of the population, the increasing prevalence of chronic conditions such as diabetes, and possible increases in temperature fluctuations due to climate change, means that this public health problem is likely to grow in importance in the future.”
Support for the study was provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences.
“Summer Temperature Variability and Long-term Survival Among Elderly People with Chronic Disease,” Antonella Zanobetti, Marie S. O’Neill, Carina J. Gronlund, and Joel D. Schwartz, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, online April 9, 2012.
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Harvard School of Public Health (http://www.hsph.harvard.edu ) is dedicated to advancing the public’s health through learning, discovery, and communication. More than 400 faculty members are engaged in teaching and training the 1,000-plus student body in a broad spectrum of disciplines crucial to the health and well being of individuals and populations around the world. Programs and projects range from the molecular biology of AIDS vaccines to the epidemiology of cancer; from risk analysis to violence prevention; from maternal and children’s health to quality of care measurement; from health care management to international health and human rights. For more information on the school visit: http://www.hsph.harvard.edu
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1C higher will kill more elderly? Then why in the hell do they all move from the mid-west and northeast to Florida and Arizona?
Ten thousand additional deaths per year. Every year? Or maybe you can only die once and there is a limited supply of old, poor and vulnerable people. Anyhow, how are those cold winters working out, death-wise?
Sometimes you need to look at these studies. Other times one’s initial scornful reaction is sufficient. This is one of those times.
In the era of air-conditioned homes how can any one tell whether the seasonal weather has anything to do with increased mortality.
Some background on air-conditioned America.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4697519.stm
What are the figures for 1C colder?
I would have thought that cold might be worse than heat.
So, how many fewer people will die in winter if temperatures are less cold?
OTOH, it’s the same old same old – junk science again.
So what happens if the temp drops by the same amount?
And assuming you believe in AGW, where is the study showing the reduction in deaths due to warmer winters. Usual biased rubbish.
So what is the death rate increase for cooling?
I bet it is much higher!
Jumping on AGW funding bandwagon, next stop Biasville, all aboard….
No indication they controlled for actual temperatures. IE greater variability is associated with higher temperatures. And as they note extreme high temperatures for a locality is associated with high mortality.
Otherwise, no real evidence ‘climate change’ causes greater temperature variability.
These people appear to believe that the ocean-atmosphere system dished out ideal weather worldwide until about 30 years ago. The ignorance of history and science is so extreme as to leave one amazed.
I’ve done a few interviews of late on my book, btw, two of which are here:
http://wp.me/pnsGM-fz
I can only find a press release, but a couple of obvious questions that come to mind:
(1) Why are they citing an increase in temperature fluctuations rather than just a general warming trend? Since general warming has no detectable ill effect, it seems critical that their claim is supportable. What citations do they use to support this assertion?
(1a) Wasn’t the most significant effect of AGW an increase in winter temperatures/reduction of lows. Wouldn’t this decrease fluctuations in temperature overall?
(2) Did they offset increased deaths due to heat fluctuation (stronger potential for heat waves I suppose) against reductions in winter extreme lows? Because cold kills more than warmth, did they correctly deduct reduced deaths from cold before considering increased deaths from heat?
As I understand it, it says 1C extra swing. So could be hotter OR colder. Makes sense, I guess, that people have a harder time coping with a higher variability in temperature. That people living in warmer climates are more susceptible…..dunno.
Is this a reiteration of long-known facts masquerading as a new insight for someone’s PhD or a poorly-disguised and crass appeal for more funding from an Ivy League institution that should really know better? It’s just that those of us at the tea-time of our lives know that we will die of old age with some spurious reason entered on the Death Certificate, and that cause of death is subject to the medical fad of the moment. While not being conversant with either Minneapolis or Florida, one could reasonably expect that sub-tropical, maritime florida would have less violent temperature swings than a city buried in the northern great plains, even without taking into account that millions of Americans work all their lives to be able to retire to Florida, and that personalwealth is the major contributor to an extended life?
And reading their conclusion reveals:
‘In conclusion, we confirmed in a large sample of cities that subpopulations such as the elderly, diabetics, and black subjects are especially susceptible to temperature extremes. According to our results, susceptibility of populations may vary according to the primary cause of death, suggesting that future studies on susceptibility will benefit from taking this into consideration. Finally, we found evidence that cardiovascular deaths, especially cardiac arrest deaths, show much larger increases on extremely cold days than other mortality causes.’
So cold does kill more (as we all know) but give us a grant anyway….
This study shows without any doubt that people from Northern states moving South run a higher risk of dying due to temperature differences. Statistics show that the majority of elderly retirees who have moved south to florida die within 10 years of moving South.
Statistics don’t lie, the science is settled.
Summer temperature variability may increase mortality risk for elderly with chronic disease
Though there is no “may” when driving up the cost of Winter heating via insane green schemes.
Perhaps it’s just nature’s way of evening things out. Most of those chronically ill people would have already died if it wasn’t for extensive medical care that all the rest of us pay for.
Did I miss the /sarc at the end of the article?
This study can’t be for real for the reasons cited in the first half-dozen or so comments.
Here, in France, I was experiencing daily temperatures of about 24 degrees centigrade a week or so ago. These last few days, we’re down to single figures again, so the temperature has risen and dropped 15 degrees or so within the short space of three weeks. In a fwe weeks it will have gained at least 15 degrees, again.
I have to say, that I have witnessed no deaths or apart from whingeing, any serious temperature related problems amongst friends, and my elderly neighbours, nor have I any other year since I’ve been here, and it does get pretty hot (and pretty cold, too).
So why should I be concerned about propaganda that these idiots are continually throwing at us? ONE degree? Come on, do they think we’re as stupid as they obviously are?
Who in their right minds believes this rubbish? They must be really thick if they think we fall for it – we’re not buying. I just wish they’d go and find something useful to do with their lives, instead of preaching, taxing, and trying to scare us to death with things that we (and, hopefully, they) all know aren’t true. Sheer, utter madness.
I’ve noticed that Harvard pumps out an enormous amount of junk science and this appears to be one more example. As is always the case with observational studies, correlation does not mean causation.
That’s why we need technology and energy for air-conditioning! But even then, no air-conditioning in summer won’t kill as easily as no heating during winter.
What with the sun going up and down all the time we are experiencing 10degC temperature swings every single day! I don’t know how the old folks here are hanging on.
It seems to me that there is some flaw in the logic of this study which claims that “for elderly people with chronic medical conditions…… could result in thousands of additional deaths each year. ”
Everyone dies eventually. Elderly persons with chronic disease would be near term candidates for death. Large temperature swings may be the trigger for death at a particular time, sooner rather than later for those at risk. It does not follow that 10,000 more will die each year without an increase in the number of people in that subset of the population (3.7 million) at near term risk.
If the temperature swings did not actually cause an increase in the number of elderly with chronic disease, then while the death rate might fluctuate with temperature swings, I would not expect it to be changed among that population subset over the longer period of time.
“even minor temperature variations caused by climate change may also increase death rates…”
Are minor temperature variations not caused by climate change (assumed AGW) okay?