Earthquake in Acapulco

7.8 preliminary estimated strength

Blogging on phone more to follow

http://ptwc.weather.gov/ptwc/?region=1&id=pacific.TIBPAC.2012.03.20.1813

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77 thoughts on “Earthquake in Acapulco

  1. When molecules are heated, they move faster and expand. When molecules are cooled they slow down and contract. So is the sun’s cooling related to the earths surface cooling and the plates are contracting increasing seismic activity?

  2. So is the sun’s cooling related to the earths surface cooling and the plates are contracting increasing seismic activity?

    I think the perceived increase in seismic activity is more a case of increased reporting.
    Just like the perception that there are increasing numbers of tornadoes, turned out to be a case of much better reporting networks and higher population density in the wide open country that many tornado tracks occur in. Even for storm chasers you can be only a mile or two from a tornado and not even be aware of it.

    The same applies to earthquake reporting my the modern media. Forty years ago this earthquake would not have even been mentioned in most news papers and if it was, probably a page 10 side bar piece to fill out a column.

    Larry

  3. I hope there are no fatality’s Mexico has been have a hard time of it lately.

    But I noticed with some disgust that the most Holidayed president in US History, Obama is sending his family members yet again on the backs of the tax payers. At this point in time when Americans are broke and in financial trouble. His Royal Highness Obama and family carry’s on with his “LET THEM EAT CAKE” lavish life style. Everybody deserves a break and a holiday, but this guy has been on a constant holiday and breaking everybody else!

    AFP reported Monday that the Obamas’ oldest daughter was south of the border for spring break, accompanied by 25 Secret Service agents. How much tax payers money went into this Carbon spewing little jaunt???

    http://tucsoncitizen.com/usa-today-news/2012/03/20/7-4-quake-strikes-near-acapulco/

  4. Good point Larry. I was in the tornadic outbreak in the Midwest back in the mid 60’s and most people never even knew about it. I was trying to establich a cause and effect relationship. There may be forces that people do NOT understand that creates these activities on the earth and it is NOT caused by humans.

  5. USGS
    Initial quake:
    7.4: 16.66°N -98.19°W 20Km Deep
    2012-03-20 18:02:48 UTC

    Aftershock:
    5.1: 16.53°N -98.01°W 10Km Deep
    2012-03-20 20:14:39 UTC

  6. Larry Ledwick (hotrod ) says: March 20, 2012 at 1:01 pm [
    I think the perceived increase in seismic activity is more a case of increased reporting.]

    Perhaps it is just the brain having one item in mind when another occurs. Like babies being born on a full moon, people will often know when it is a full moon and if it is busy in maternity they make the connection. Since most people do not recognize a waning gibbous crescent moon they would not create a connection between today’s moon and the number of babies born or today’s earthquake.

  7. vukcevic says on March 20, 2012 at 12:46 pm

    Another M 7.6 strength earthquake in the wake of the recent solar storms. …

    Why did the EQ not occur earlier?

    What is the ‘delay’ mechanism? Why did not the EQ occur last week at the height of the solar/geomagnetic field activity?

    Things look to have been relatively quiet the last few days … otherwise this looks like unassociated, unlinked causation

  8. http://www.ncgt.org/newsletter.php?action=download&id=98

    excellent research

    SUN, MOON AND EARTHQUAKES
    Vinayak G. KOLVANKAR
    Former scientist, BARC, Mumbai 400051, India

    There is linear, predictions is not impossible !

    Abstract: During a study conducted to find the effect of Earth tides on the occurrence of earthquakes, for small areas of high-seismicity regions, it was noticed that the Sun’s position in terms of universal time (GMT) shows links to the earthquake-lunar distance together with Sun-Earth-Moon angle. This paper provides the details of this relationship after
    studying earthquake data for over forty high-seismicity regions of the world. It was found that nearly 98% of the earthquakes for these different regions, examined for the period 1973-2008, show a direct relationship between the Sun’s position and the earthquake-moon distance together with the Sun-Earth-Moon angle. As the time changes from 00-24 hours, the sum of the earthquake-moon distance and the Sun-Earth-Moon angle changes through 3600, and plotting these two variables for different earthquakes reveals a simple 450 straight-line relationship between them.

  9. The quakes appear to be occurring near the continental rift which connects the Caribbean plate in the Gulf to the Cocos subduction zone on the Pacific coast of Mexico.

    Doesn’t look like there’s any damage to nearby towns; Buenavista and San Juan Cacahuatepec.

  10. Larry Ledwick (hotrod ) says:
    March 20, 2012 at 1:01 pm
    I think the perceived increase in seismic activity is more a case of increased reporting.

    I doubt that there was much change or increased reporting in the last 12 months, but it could be the case in your part of the world.

    Andrew30 says:
    March 20, 2012 at 1:59 pm
    Like babies being born on a full moon, people will often know when it is a full moon…

    I assume hospitals keep records; however for both the earthquakes and geomagnetic storms there are reliable archives, at least for the last 12 months (see links, under the graph)

    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/EQM7.htm

    See also quotes of two conflicting views, from two major USA scientific institutions, USGS and NASA.

  11. David Larsen says:
    March 20, 2012 at 12:39 pm

    When molecules are heated, they move faster and expand. When molecules are cooled they slow down and contract. So is the sun’s cooling related to the earths surface cooling and the plates are contracting increasing seismic activity?
    ================================================
    No, they were fracking……… sigh /sarc

  12. I did some harmonic research on earth quakes. Using a simple algorithm adding ecliptic integer modes. This gives the highest index five minutes from Kobe quake event in the whole month.

    Kobe mode configuration:

    Similar as today in Oaxaco (s. horizon).

    Same with China quake.

    for i := 1 to 10 do
    for k := 1 to 10 do
    begin
    alpha := diff(pos[i],pos[k]);
    {diff(a,b) computes the geocentric angle distance of 2 bodies}
    if (ki) and (k>i) then
    begin
    y := 4 * sqr(cos(alpha));
    y0 := abs(0-y); { 90° }
    y1 := abs(1-y); { 60° + 120° }
    y2 := abs(2-y); { 45° + 135° }
    y3 := abs(3-y); { 30° + 150° }
    y4 := abs(4-y); { 0° + 180° }
    z0 := 1/(y0+0.005); {The value of 0.005 limits the peak height}
    z1 := 1/(y1+0.005);
    z2 := 1/(y2+0.005);
    z3 := 1/(y3+0.005);
    z4 := 1/(y4+0.005);
    I := I + (z0+z1+z2+z3+z4);
    end;
    end;

    Christmas quake 2004 the integer was 36.

    The true point is, intelligent people have more interest in refuting the unknown, then to do lonesome hard science work or even tolerate it.

    V.

  13. Michele Casati says:
    March 20, 2012 at 2:54 pm

    ============
    Hi Michele,
    I started to read over the article and ran across this which I’m have some trouble accepting.

    It showed the influence of the horizontal component of Earth’s magnetic field, which is susceptible to atmospheric temperature. This phenomenon again depends on the Sun’s local position (Kolvankar et al., 2010).

    I understand the effect temperature has on magnetic materials and the Curie temperature issue but how does temperature have any effect on the Earth’s magnetic field which is generated at the core?

  14. _Jim says:
    March 20, 2012 at 2:25 pm
    Why did the EQ not occur earlier?
    What is the ‘delay’ mechanism? Why did not the EQ occur last week at the height of the solar/geomagnetic field activity?

    New Orleans doesn’t get flooded on the day the snow thaw starts in Montana or Wyoming.
    If I new answers to your question, I wouldn’t be wasting everyone’s time with the idle bloging, but would be on my way to Stockholm.

  15. wiglafthegreat says:
    March 20, 2012 at 1:18 pm
    Just think! When Arnold and the UN establish our environmental utopia, Sustainia, by 2020, earthquakes and other natural disasters will be a thing of the past!

    http://www.sustainia.me/

    ———————————-
    Went to the site. Could have warned us! I thought it was a spoof as the site opened up…the insipid colours and the illustration….then the horror. O, the horror….

  16. Whoa, that site (sustania) would probably look great on a 16-color display….
    Would rather have Freedonia – better Groucho Marx than Karl Marx any day….

    Is there any analysis being done to compare the current
    alignments to similar ones in the past, i.e. to see where
    we could predict in retrospect? (Not putting this too well,
    I suspect, but it’s late here…sorry).

  17. 160km down. Depth is key when looking at magnitude. Look at Christchurch NZ for comparison where M6+ destroyed the city from 10km depth.

  18. Larry wrote:
    I think the perceived increase in seismic activity is more a case of increased reporting.
    ========================================================================
    … to which I would add: “and improved detection.” The advent of solid state technology
    (transistors et al & esp. strain gauges) made really sensitive seismographs cheap. Such
    cheapness enabled installation everywhere. The global seismograph network did not exist
    50 years ago. Now, an earthquake such as the one at Acapulco, registers on almost all seismographs around the world.

  19. I read the article and have another question. The term Earth Tides is repeatedly used but never defined.

    I ran a search and found this which presents many of the same conclusions ( http://www.okgeosurvey1.gov/tide.html ):
    Earth tides, like ocean tides, are caused by the gravitational attraction of the sun and moon on the rotating earth. The ocean tides are similar, but they vary from place to place according to the shape of the shorline. What we commonly call “TIDE” is the DIFFERENCE between the ocean tides and the earth tides seen at shorelines.

    The DIFFERENCE seen at shorelines? This doesn’t make any sense to me.

    excerpt from the article:
    This proves beyond any doubt that the vast majority (98%) of worldwide earthquakes are governed by the Sun and Moon. Even the smaller earthquakes in the magnitude range of 2-3 faithfully follow this relationship. It is also seen that numerous aftershocks, which follow any major earthquake, faithfully follow straight-line curves, generated by the plot for (EMD+SEM) vs GMT timings.

    If I’m following, the article basically states that for the seismically active regions selected, earthquakes can be predicted, with a reasonable probability, to the day and hour based solar moon cycles and the results clearly show a 98% regional conformance to this pattern.

    That’s more that pretty amazing if its true.

  20. Richard Scott Bixler says:
    March 20, 2012 at 4:49 pm
    There was just a 5.0 aftershock that struck Acapulco, Mexico – http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0008me2.php
    ==============
    Hi Richard,
    That doesn’t appear to be an aftershock, its in a different area and possibly along the rift I mentioned earlier.

    Quake:
    very close to Colonia Guadalupe, Mexico
    5.0: 16.449°N, -98.657°W | 21.3 Km Deep
    2012 March 20 22:25:43 UTC
    map location: http://www.gorissen.info/Pierre/maps/googleMapLocation.php?lat=16.449000&lon=-98.657000&setLatLon=Set

  21. OMG, please tell me that people are NOT thinking that fewer sunspots is triggering earthquakes!!!! On the other hand, this opens up possibilities for me. Sacrifices accepted at 8:00 evening services and then again at 8:00 AM services. Money preferred.

  22. Time duration between quakes is strange — approximately 2 hours 12 mins. plus or minus 1 min.

    If another follows the pattern…

  23. Pamela Gray says:
    March 20, 2012 at 6:36 pm
    ========
    Hi Pamela,
    No one is suggesting sunspots as far as I can tell. It has something to do with Earth Tides (what ever they are) and Solar Moon alignments (New Moon to Full Moon to New Moon). The study is interesting but I’ve got a lot of unanswered questions.

  24. John from CA says:

    March 20, 2012 at 6:54 pmTime duration between quakes is strange — approximately 2 hours 12 mins. plus or minus 1 min.

    If another follows the pattern…
    __________________________________________________________

    I bet it has to do with wave propogation down into the core and then reflected back

  25. John, that reminds me of a song, but I’m either too old or had too many glasses of red wine to remember much of it.

  26. Alright you jokers who say these quakes are predictable, make some quake predictions. You have a world-wide audience. Tell us what elliptical numbers or sun-moon-etc axis predicts for the next most likely times for large earthquakes. Give a list with likelihood of happening. Quakes happen all the time. So, make them Mag 7+ if you can.

  27. _Jim says on March 20, 2012 at 2:25 pm:
    Why did the EQ not occur earlier?
    What is the ‘delay’ mechanism? Why did not the EQ occur last week at the height of the solar/geomagnetic field activity?

    vukcevic says on March 20, 2012 at 4:17 pm:

    New Orleans doesn’t get flooded on the day the snow thaw starts in Montana or Wyoming.

    Identification of a ‘parallel’ or analogy without identifying the linkage in causation, as requested.

    What is the analogous event or ‘process’ in the ‘water flow’ (delay) stage where ‘water flows down the river’ before flooding the City of New Orleans?

    The ‘force’ exerted by changes in the geomagnetic field would have felt (imparted a force on the earth) the day and the hour and the minute the field began to experience changes, so what/where was the energy stored for a week? Had the liquid core of the earth been disturbed we would have seen a static change for a week in the earth’s magnetic field, and a change back would have been a dynamic change that could also have been detected and measured.

    .

  28. CRS, DrPH says on March 20, 2012 at 4:20 pm

    Hi Anthony! One of my friends in U.S. EMP Preparedness sent this to me…seems that the Brits are taking the risks of a waking sun quite seriously!

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2012/mar/18/solar-storm-flare-disruption-technology

    …is that the smell of a burning iPad 3 that I smell? Oh wait, they combust on their own, sorry.

    Do I detect posers (the U.S. EMP Preparedness folks); how familiar do you suppose they are with EMP testing on COTS equipment (and related areas, including lightning survivability testing, as well as Electrostatic discharge testing at the IC-pin level on up to the final, deliverable, consumer equipment) ? They should also be familiar with the parallels and differences between GIC influences (geomagnetic storm affects) and a high-altitude nuclear burst … but I am wondering …

    You have cited more ‘scare press’ if you ask me. At this point, the posters on this blog should understand the awareness of, and the practices implemented and used by the utilities to avert GIC/geomagnetic storm trouble and possible damage to equipment (when following proper procedure); the goal of ‘the U.S. EMP Preparedness folks’ would be seem to be the same as ‘the MSM press’ which may be summed up in one word: drama.

    .

  29. John from CA says:
    March 20, 2012 at 6:58 pm
    No one is suggesting sunspots as far as I can tell. It has something to do with Earth Tides (what ever they are) and Solar Moon alignments (New Moon to Full Moon to New Moon).
    There is no evidence that earthquakes have anything to do with the phases of the Moon. Here is the number of earthquakes greater than M5.5 since 1900 as a function of moon phase: http://www.leif.org/research/Earthquakes-Full-New.png there is no correlation.

  30. Vukcevic;
    See also quotes of two conflicting views, from two major USA scientific institutions, USGS and NASA.>>>

    That’s only one Vuk. NASA was converted to Muslim outreach at the beginning of the Obama administration.

  31. JDN says:
    March 20, 2012 at 7:41 pm
    Alright you jokers who say these quakes are predictable, make some quake predictions. You have a world-wide audience. Tell us what elliptical numbers or sun-moon-etc axis predicts for the next most likely times for large earthquakes.
    And WHERE.

  32. Hi Jim
    What makes you think that the geomagnetic storms stopped a week ago?

    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/EQM7.htm

    1. we don’t know if there is a connection
    2. if there is we don’t know the mechanism
    see quotes from USGS and NASA scientists in the above link.
    Aim of the post is for ‘thought initiating’ process, since idle brains are hardly of any use.

  33. _Jim says:
    March 20, 2012 at 8:22 pm
    Had the liquid core of the earth been disturbed we would have seen a static change for a week in the earth’s magnetic field, and a change back would have been a dynamic change that could also have been detected and measured.

    Possibly. One step at the time, Jim.
    Here is what it looks like:

    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/Tromso.htm

    We don’t know, so it is better to monitor the daily data then do nothing.

  34. origin studies…

    1873

    Rudolf falb

    http://query.nytimes.com/mem/archive-free/pdf?_r=1&res=9F00E3DC1739E233A25755C2A9609C94669FD7CF

    Nicola Scafetta say :

    November 10, 2011 alle 9:51 pm

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/10/aurora-borealis-and-surface-temperature-cycles-linked/#comment-793830

    I see that some persons insist with the thesis that a finding would be scientific only if everything is already fully understood and clear. However, I need to say that in scientific research one does not start with a full and complete knowledge about an issue. The full and complete knowledge of an issue is the conclusive step of a scientific research not its beginning. In scientific research people start with the data and try to understand what the data tell us. Then they try to model the phenomenon and/or propose possible mechanisms. This is what makes a theory. A specific proposed theory may then be further supported or rejected by additional research on the topic. This is the way in which science, in every field, progresses. So, there is nothing wrong if a single paper on an ongoing research does not explain in detail every possible issue related to the studied phenomenon, in particular if, as it is in this case, the phenomenon under study is extremely complex. And there is nothing wrong is such a kind of paper may contain some conjectures which may also be found wrong in the future.

    About the comments from Leif Svalgaard, I need again to invite him to read my paper before criticize it and to do that with a little bit of open mind (of course he does not need to open it too much because we do not want that his brain get lost somewhere).

    About the tides Svalgaard does not really appear to understand the issue. Time ago he was claiming that nobody in the past, before Newton, knew that the tides were induced by the moon. I needed to prove to him that in the past, on the contrary, everybody knew that the tides were induced by the moon even if the people did not know about Newtonian mechanics.

    Now he insists that I do not understand Kelvin’s argument about the tides because in his opinion I ignore Doodson’s work, which by the way I have referenced in my paper together with the work of Kelvin.

    Svalgaard does not understand the fact that it is not possible accurately calculate and predict the tides using the fundamental law of physics because of the enormous physical complexity of the problem, which is not limited to only know the existence of the gravity but also requires a detailed knowledge of a lot of other things including thermodynamics, fluido-dynamics and the fundamental local resonances. To overcome this ignorance issues Kelvin proposed a harmonic model based on astronomical cycles without putting any physics in it, but using astronomical geometry. Doodson simply expanded the argument of Kelvin.

    That the method of Kelvin does not require any modern quantitative physics but only a qualitative argumentation based on empirical astronomy is proven not only in the same works of Kelvin on the topic but also by the fact that an equivalent methodology was adopted since ancient times to predict the tides. One medieval work that addresses the issue and explains quantitatively how the tides could be predicted based on astronomical cycles is the De temporum ratione (The Reckoning of Time) by the Northumbrian monk Bede in AD 725: quasi 1000 years before Newton.

  35. Volker Doormann says:
    March 20, 2012 at 4:05 pm
    I did some harmonic research on earth quakes. Using a simple algorithm adding ecliptic integer modes. ..

    The true point is, intelligent people have more interest in refuting the unknown, then to do lonesome hard science work or even tolerate it.

    “From: Volker Doormann <noreply@volker-doormann.org
    Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 21:13:29 +0200
    Subject: 2006.01.02
    Message-ID: <d7nlqu$lc4$00$1@news.t-online.com
    Zum Beispiel Djakarta 2. Januar 2006</b<, 13h45 (06:45 GMT)”

    "A major earthquake occurred at 06:10:49 (UTC) on Monday, January 2, 2006. The magnitude 7.4 event has been located EAST OF THE SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS. (This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.) Location: 60.807°S, 21.474°W ”

    I could make this demonstration because of the knowledge of the harmonic laws in the solar system.

    Who is interested in evidence, there is a correlation between the yearly earthquake frequency mag >7.0 and the yearly component of the solar system harmonics:

    However, I have made a prediction correct in time of about 35 minutes a half year before a major quake, but for a wrong place (120° East from right place) because I was not aware that there is a quake region in the South Atlantic.

    Any better science based quake predictions known?

    BTW. The work of j. H. Nelson

    V.

  36. Volker Doormann says:
    March 20, 2012 at 4:05 pm
    I did some harmonic research on earth quakes. Using a simple algorithm adding ecliptic integer modes. ..

    The true point is, intelligent people have more interest in refuting the unknown, then to do lonesome hard science work or even tolerate it.

    “From: Volker Doormann <noreply@volker-doormann.org
    Date: Thu, 02 Jun 2005 21:13:29 +0200
    Subject: 2006.01.02
    Message-ID: <d7nlqu$lc4$00$1@news.t-online.com
    Zum Beispiel Djakarta 2. Januar 2006</b<, 13h45 (06:45 GMT)”

    "A major earthquake occurred at 06:10:49 (UTC) on Monday, January 2, 2006. The magnitude 7.4 event has been located EAST OF THE SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS. (This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.) Location: 60.807°S, 21.474°W ”

    I could make this demonstration because of the knowledge of the harmonic laws in the solar system.

    Who is interested in evidence, there is a correlation between the yearly earthquake frequency mag >7.0 and the yearly component of the solar system harmonics:

    However, I have made a prediction correct in time of about 35 minutes a half year before a major quake, but for a wrong place (120° East from right place) because I was not aware that there is a quake region in the South Atlantic.

    Any better science based quake predictions known?

    BTW. The work of j. H. Nelson

    V.

  37. Pamela Gray says: March 20, 2012 at 6:36 pm

    OMG, please tell me that people are NOT thinking that fewer sunspots is triggering earthquakes!!!! On the other hand, this opens up possibilities for me. Sacrifices accepted at 8:00 evening services and then again at 8:00 AM services. Money preferred.

    As I understand it, the assertion is that both sunspots and earthquakes have a common controlling / influencing modality. (Exactly what that is varies a bit by thesis ;-) So not “sunspots cause” but more “they come together when they come”.

    This could have a realistic foundation in that tidal forces could be acting on both in some harmonic / resonant pattern. (Orbital Resonance is one of the defining features of all these things moving in space; and lots of things are ‘synchronized’ due to such properties.)

    @Leif:

    As I understand it, it is not just “phase of the moon” but is “phase of the moon at perigee”. (Then again, I’m not all that exact on it. There may be some offset from exact perigee. I’ve not been motivated enough to dredge through it all…) So the “Magic Handwaving” has to do with looking at when does a very high tide happen “near” closest lunar approach (but with some odd bit having to do with offset angle to the sun, too… Like I said, “undermotivated” to absorb it all…)

    Oh, and both new and full “count” in that both raise higher tides. (So you have fully 1/2 of the time being preferred… but the other two phases may be “enough” if they happen when at perigee… or some such [ waves hands frantically ;-) ]

    @All:

    Rocks slowly build up stress. Eventually they let loose. I could easily see a tidal or EMP driven ‘nudge’ acting to trigger at the last moment (and in geologic terms, the ‘moment’ could be a month long). At the same time; some times it’s just going to break loose when it feels like it.

    So IMHO you can predict SOME increase in probability, but no actual moments of quaking. Which is kind of useless for my needs. ( I live between two major faults. I “rode the beast” during Loma Prieta – a 7.2 at the time, since re-written lower…) So it’s nice to know that the Hayward / Calaveras might let loose on a full or new moon perigee… but that only narrows it down to a few hundred of them per break cycle, except when it just lets loose anyway…

    That the sun might also be somehow stirred by various tidal forces as an Orbital Resonance Coincidence is amusing too, but not exactly useful, for the same reasons.

    But hey, if you start batting 500 on calls with dates constrained to a one week window and for particular 10 degree boxes of geography, sign me up…

  38. tallbloke says:
    March 20, 2012 at 1:30 pm

    “Michele predicted this two days ago.”

    And also where? If not, it’s a useless prediction. There is a magnitide 7,0 – 7,9 earthquake somewhere every three weeks. That’s about a 5% chance every day. So if there are 100 bloggers randomly predicting M7 quakes on specific dates, quite a few of them will be successful.

  39. David Larsen says:
    March 20, 2012 at 12:39 pm

    When molecules are heated, they move faster and expand. When molecules are cooled they slow down and contract. So is the sun’s cooling related to the earths surface cooling and the plates are contracting increasing seismic activity?

    Kind of a mash-moosh there.
    1. When molecules are heated, they move faster Yes
    2. and expand. No. The molecules are unchanged; the solid, liquid, or gas spreads out because of more vigorous collisions.
    3. the sun’s cooling No. The Sun is not cooling; the “quiet period” is the frequency of breaks in the “surface” due to magnetic storms etc. reducing. = fewer sunspots and less solar wind.
    4. earths surface cooling. Maybe. Small cooling or pause in general warming.
    5. related to Possible; less solar wind may permit more cosmic ray seeding of clouds causing shading of the surface.
    6. the plates are contracting No. Plates are moving, not contracting.
    7. increasing seismic activity No. No statistical increase is occurring.

    1½-2 out of 7. Not too good.

  40. Oh my god, this earthquake must be linked to the fracking in lancashire, do they have flammable water as well (as shown on al ja beeba last night)?

  41. I don’t have a scientific bone in me, so I’m going on intuition here, but my hackles are starting to fluff-up nicely with this earthquake prediction stuff. Michele’s predictions, which Tall Bloke admires…and I respect Tall Bloke…lead to Bendandi’s planetary alignment stuff, and the folks who are into that are intoTesla coils, with others going off to planetary harmonics, and if one follows up those sources, on we go to crop circles which involve rationalistic explanations along with a cocktail of occult stuff leading to the Mayan Calendar and 2012 cataclysms, which continuum take us…right back to Michele’s planetary alignment hypothesis and earthquake predictions which…on the face of it, look pretty weak to me. This is all confusing to my little brain, knowing that real discoveries were often made by people who also dabbled in the pseudosciences. Anyway, not wishing to offend anyone, I’m getting queezy about all this, but I stand ready to be advised or chastised for my ignorance and paranoia.

  42. Peter Kovachev says:
    March 21, 2012 at 4:07 am
    I don’t have a scientific bone in me, so I’m going on intuition here, ..

    The truth is that there is no statement from geologists sounding ‘We do understand the physical process which triggers the earthquake and because of that we do know when and where a quake in future will occur.’ To me this indicates that they know nothing more than you.

    On the other side there are many serious hints available to the science community that as well earthquakes but also solar flares are connected to planetary geocentric and heliocentric harmonics . For those who belief in statistics, there is a significance that these harmonics correlate with the > Mag 7.0 earthquake frequency.

    But statistics only indicate that there is a relation; statistics don’t show which geometry or mechanism cracks the surface of earth or Sun; to solve the whole thing it needs a lot of disciplines and some unbiased researchers, free from the presumptuous talk of the mob in politics and blogs.

    The truth is that in the present society there is no one who would pay some scientist for this theme. Like you the society argues ‘One, who deals with planets is known as village idiot, who is involved in communism, witchcraft, UFO’s, aliens, AGW, and worrier on white horses sounding along the sky.

    V.

  43. Peter Kovachev says: March 21, 2012 at 4:07 am
    I don’t have a scientific bone in me, so I’m going on intuition here,…

    Hi Peter
    We collect data, look at data, see if there is anything there, if it is than outline some kind of hypothesis, collect more data, firm-up or modify hypothesis, and follow a path towards of formulation of a theory or alternatively discard initial ideas, and then start all over again. It is hard, long work with large uncertainties, where disappointments and failures lead success by a ratio likely to be many 100s:1. Every failure is eliminating one path out of the many, so in itself is a worthwhile contribution to the finding eventual solution.
    Science doesn’t advance by doing nothing; there are no ready made solutions.

    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/Tromso.htm

  44. Michele Casati says:
    March 21, 2012 at 4:25 am

    say :There is a magnitide 7,0 – 7,9 earthquake somewhere every three weeks. That’s about a 5% chance every day.

    False
    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/

    So, three M7 quakes so far this year, I’d call that pretty much on track with that frequency. I googled for the frequency and found 18 a year. Here’s another page saying 15 a year, and also giving the statistics for the last few years:
    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/eqstats.php

    I’ve run a seismometer at home for several years which picks up M6+ quakes anywhere in the world, and I’d say that M7 quakes are pretty common. Based on that I’ll happily predict right now a M7 quake within the next 48 hours, and with some luck (but not too much luck) I’ll be right. Have more people making other predictions, and pretty soon someone will be right.

  45. Not knowing much about the science behind quakes, I shall simply imput what I was reading on another site, which begger me down I cannot remember. The prediction was, every 180-186 days an earthquake would happen at or above mag 6, this is due to the earths orbit around the sun, when it appears on the opposite side of the sun to where it was on the last quake, the core will “move”, not flip as some have suggested, but simply move a bit. This will cause a big quake. I was reading this just after Christmas and the prediction was for between March 20 to March 26. So for the poster who asked for a prediction on when the next big one is going to happen, if this persons research is correct, in 180-186 days from this earthquake (which I believe is around September some time) there will be another big one, 6 or higher. As to where, stuff a duck if I have any idea where. So having said that, I personaly will be very interested to see if this persons research/findings/predictions continue to hold out. waiting to be shot down in flames in 3….2……1…….

  46. Steinar Midtskogen says:
    March 21, 2012 at 6:04 am
    I’ve run a seismometer at home for several years which picks up M6+ quakes anywhere in the world, and I’d say that M7 quakes are pretty common.
    Based on that I’ll happily predict right now a M7 quake within the next 48 hours, and with some luck (but not too much luck) I’ll be right. “

    People who are busy on the relation between major earth quake events/location and the planetary pattern along the ecliptic do not playing statistical games to win as you are happy with.
    People like me are calculating harmonic indices out of the planetary pattern of the time, which have a relation to major quakes.
    That this is different to your statistical game can be seen from a graph about the time in May 2008 in China: the planetary index correlates with the number of global registered earth quakes per day. And because these are global quakes frequencies, it indicates, that the cause is not local, ( a cause from the planet harmonic pattern).

    My prediction for a major quake out of the planetary pattern was precise of 35 minutes; you can try to explain it with statistics.

    V.

  47. The strangest thing about this earthquake was, that there was an earthquake exercise planned and started 3 minutes before the actual quake took place! See the actual Mexican news item (google) translated! Foreknowledge or mere coincidence? Judge yourself! Watch videos and read article!

  48. Pamela Gray says:
    March 20, 2012 at 7:27 pm
    John, that reminds me of a song, but I’m either too old or had too many glasses of red wine to remember much of it.
    =========
    LOL, thanks for sharing Pamela.

    Leif Svalgaard says:
    March 20, 2012 at 10:12 pm

    There is no evidence that earthquakes have anything to do with the phases of the Moon. Here is the number of earthquakes greater than M5.5 since 1900 as a function of moon phase: http://www.leif.org/research/Earthquakes-Full-New.png there is no correlation.
    =========
    Thanks Leif,
    Perigee occurred on March 10 after the full moon on March 8. The new moon is due on March 22 with Apogee on March 26. These alignments don’t coincide with yesterdays quakes and Michele’s prediction. It would be interesting to see the calculations she used to make the prediction.

    The study Michele Casati cited above is finding a statistically significant correlation based on events from the earthquake catalog. The methodology appears to add the moon position (longitude) and the value of the SEM [Sun-Earth-Moon] angle before the earthquake is plotted with respect to the lunar position.

    “During this study it was noticed that the variation of the horizontal component of the earthquake plot (NM-FM-NM (which is also represented as -180 degrees 00 degrees +180 degrees)), has some bearing on the timing of earthquakes picked from a small area of a high-seismicity region. This paper studies and explores this phenomenon in detail.”

    The statistically significant correlation is very curious. Note: Earthquakes occur every day in California but it wasn’t included in the study.

  49. @ John from CA

    My empirical methodology

    Look my graphs
    There are two stages prior to major events geofisic.

    1°step
    Charge solar EM (jumps solar wind)
    Solar (flare / cme / coronal holes)

    2°step
    Discharge (Trigger planetarium)
    low solar wind
    Input new moon or perigee or planetary alignments inside-outside solar system

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079194698001219

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0012821X67900714

    http://www.aip.de/thinkshop/posterpaper/mukherjee1.pdf

    http://www.springerlink.com/content/buvw2tq081013210/

    http://www.opteryx.de/docs/tamrazyan/Tamrazyan_1968.pdf

    http://www.opteryx.de/docs/tamrazyan/Tamrazyan_1967.pdf

    http://lanl.arxiv.org/abs/1104.2036

  50. Michele Casati says:
    March 21, 2012 at 8:28 am
    ===========
    Thanks Michele

    Do you have a definition of Earth Tides? The one I found and list above doesn’t make any sense.

  51. Very interesting studies. I’m getting a beam me up Scottie moment from this one.

    http://lanl.arxiv.org/abs/0801.0876

    Scale invariability

    M. Omerbashich
    (Submitted on 6 Jan 2008 (v1), last revised 9 Feb 2010 (this version, v2))
    I recently demonstrated that the Earth is a mechanical oscillator in which springtide induced magnification of all-masses resonance forces tectonics. I here generalize this georesonator concept so to make it apply to any body, anywhere in all the universes, and at all times. It turns out that there is no distinction between physics at intergalactic, mechanist, quantum, and smaller scales. Instead of being a constant (of proportionality of physics at all scales), G is a parameter of most general form: G = s e^2, nonlinearly varying amongst different scales s. The so called scale variability of physics but not of G, imagined as such by Planck and Einstein, is due to springtide-induced extreme resonance of Earth masses critically impeding terrestrial experiments for estimating G, while providing artificial settings for quantum experiments to all trivially “work”. Thus the derived equation is that of levitation. Reality is a system of near infinitely many magnifying oscillators, where permanent energy decay of all oscillation forbids constancy of known “physical constants”. This hyperresonator concept explains the magnetism (as every forced oscillator feature), as well as the gravitation (as forward propagation of mechanical vibrations along the aether i.e. throughout the vacuum structure). To test my claim I propose a Space mission to collect on site measurements of eigenperiods of the Sun, its planets, and their satellites. The levitation equitation enables propulsionless Space travel via gravity sailing: Space vehicle hull ought to be engineered so as to automatically adjust its grave mode, to the vehicle instant gravitational surroundings, akin to trout up swimming.

    This jumped out at me. Is this true; http://lanl.arxiv.org/abs/1104.2036 ?

    Astronomical alignments as the cause of ~M6+ seismicity

    Mensur Omerbashich
    (Submitted on 11 Apr 2011 (v1), last revised 4 Dec 2011 (this version, v5))
    I here demonstrate empirically my georesonator concept in which tidally induced magnification of Earth masses’ resonance causes seismicity on Earth. To that end, I show that all strong (~M6+) earthquakes of 2010 occurred during Earth’s long (t > 3 days) astronomical alignments in our solar system. I show that the same holds true for all very strong (~M8+) earthquakes of the decade of 2000’s. Finally, the strongest (M8.6+) earthquakes of the past century are shown to have occurred during Earth’s multiple long alignments too, whereas half of the high-strongest (M9+) earthquakes occurred during Full Moon. To add to my solution’s robustness, I include alignments to comet C/2010 X1 (Elenin) as the only heavenly body currently in our solar system besides planets, and show it impacted very strong seismicity since 2007 (and strongest seismicity, perhaps since 1965). I conclude my empirical demonstration with a two-month, 100%-successful forecast of M6+ magnification, performed online in near real-time in Oct-Nov 2011, and which shows always the same pattern of intensifying-peaking-diminishing of strong earthquakes’ strength during long alignments, and the absence of the pattern outside alignments. Days without killer quake can now be known exactly, amounting to months a year of exact seismic forecast (telling with certainty there will be no strong seisms on that-and-that date). Approximate forecast of strength and timing of strong earthquakes is feasible for the rest of the year, as well as of location once the alignment begins. I thus verified my hyperresonator concept, arrived at earlier as a mathematical-physical solution to the most general extension of georesonator. Hyperresonance is akin to tuning forks triggering each other at distance, so my discovery demonstrates the existence of aether as required for propagation of tuning (interfering) oscillations in Space.

  52. Volker Doorman and vukcevic,

    Thank you for your kind replies, gentlemen. And my apologies for taking so long to get back. I like your arguments that research into physical phenomena is a slow, tedious and even risky process and the fewer impediments, the better. I also like the idea of statistics as a sound arbiter. As I grow longer in the tooth, I’m stumbling towards the disconcerting conclusion that certainties are imaginary constructs and all that we think we know is a messy clump of beliefs based on our evaluation of statistical probabilities. I’ll never know if I’ve finally come upon wisdom or slid into idiocy. O, well.

    I think what I’m trying to understand is where the borders between science and pseudoscience on this one are. I can already tell that they’re not as sharply delineated as in medicine. With medicine you have medical schools, academia and associations with strict rules, and you have a huge inducement in the private sector to discover anything that is effective, no matter how odd the direction may be. On the other end, you have insurance firms and in some countries, like in Canada, socialized government-managed universal care and in both cases a great reluctance to pay for nonsense. The up-side to this arrangement is that the majority is reluctant to fork out out-of-pocket money for quakery. It was funny to watch the fad of homeopathy ruffle through the well-to-do sector, but the novely has worn off. Imagine, quakery as a conspicuous consumption.

    In researching forecasting of earthquakes, though, there certainly is an inducement, but the Earth sciences mainstream appears to have a greater monopoly through the universities, associations and the peer review process. Nowhere near as much money as in medicine, of course, with most of the funds coming from grands or from exploration investment. So, then, unless you guys are in the system, you are out there in the cold. And lo and behold, sidling up, as I can see on the Web, there is a great number of “outsiders” ranging from mildly eccentric to outright wacky. And they all want to sidle up to you because you lend them legitimacy and you are their gateway to the mainstream. To make things even harder, many of the marginal and out-there researchers re extremely bright people who work their butts off under their own resources and sometimes produce valuable results which makes it hard to give them the cold shoulder. So, I suppose what I think I want to understand is where your borders lie and how you interact between the mainstream and the margins. I hope this made sense.

  53. Here’s a NASA article with a table of tidal forces: http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2000/ast04may_1m/

    Maximum Tidal Forces of the Sun, Moon, and Planets
    on the Earth Solar System Object Tidal Force

    Moon 2.1
    Sun 1.00
    Venus 0.000113
    Jupiter 0.0000131
    Mars 0.0000023
    Mercury 0.0000007
    Saturn 0.0000005
    Uranus 0.000000001
    Neptune 0.000000002
    Pluto 0.0000000000001

    The article authors do not believe planets, even when aligned, exert any measurable effects, which I suppose, is what the discussion here is about. One of the links in the article specifically and perhaps harshly critiques planetary convergence hypotheses: http://www.badastronomy.com/bad/misc/planets.html

    Please, don’t challenge me on this, folks; talk amongst your selves, as the saying goes. This stuff is waaaaay above my paygrade. I’ll just celebrate my first venture into (light and superficial) research in the Earth sciences !

  54. WTF???? I posted TWICE, and it said I wasn’t logged in – AND LOST THE ENTIRE COMMENT. Then I put in testing 123 and it went through? WTF???

    [Reply: I suggest sending wordpress.com some feedback. ~dbs, mod.]

  55. Peter Kovachev says:
    March 21, 2012 at 3:43 pm
    …………….
    Your list of numbers tells you all you need to know. There isn’t much left in the gravity sphere worth knowing that isn’t already well known.

  56. _Jim says: “Why did the EQ not occur earlier? What is the ‘delay’ mechanism…?”

    The delay mechanism is the Mysterious Cavern of the Sugarplum Fairy, into which planetary stresses and Trenberth’s missing heat are stored (“In the pipeline”) until such time as the Hyborian god, Crom, orders them released, Or maybe it’s Chthulu.

  57. vukcevic says:
    Your list of numbers tells you all you need to know. There isn’t much left in the gravity sphere worth knowing that isn’t already well known.

    Thanks! I’m not a math wiz, but I can use the calculator ny brother-in-law gave me years ago and going by those numbers the gravitational force from our planets are measurable, but of no significance, especially when compared to the relatively massive influence of the Moon and the Sun, both of which…I just learned, like the good boy I am…wreak a veritable havoc on us. The Earth Tide, to my astonishment (but old news to you people here), causes an equatorial bulge around to 38 cm from the Moon and and about 18 cm for the Sun! Not good enough to surf on, but still pretty wild.

    So that’s it, then, no other measurable influences of any kind? I see from the linked page in your site that you’re displaying fluctuations in the Solar magnetic field, but you are relating it to temperature not Earth activity. Am I missing something? I ‘m new to this stuff. Lolling about while recovering from pneumonia is getting me into things I never looked at before and I’ll be probably rooting around on the Net ’til two in the morning. This WUWT thing, btw, is pretty neat. If I don’t get off my butt soon and get back to my work I predict…no, I project…that I’ll drive the mods nuts with my gentleman’s science hobby and they’ll block me.

  58. <b<vukcevic, me ask about details? LOL! Not to worry. Some hobby you have; model airplanes or bonsai trees didn’t do it? Thanks for the peek. I’ll have something to keep me busy deciphering for a while. Could bre a lifetime project.

  59. Peter Kovachev says:
    March 21, 2012 at 2:52 pm
    Volker Doorman and vukcevic, …

    I think what I’m trying to understand is where the borders between science and pseudoscience on this one are.

    If you belief in pseudoscience then you have not understood the borders of science. Science is operating with what IS, and because it is impossible to define pseudoscience because it IS NOT, there is only science or NOT. Science is using strong arguments and this means giving reasons to the argument. To speak statements, also if they comes from authorities, and/or NO statements like L. Svalgaard is stating as a authority is therefore no science. It is ever necessary to argue on something what IS and giving a reason, which can be checked by the listener.
    I have given to you a graph which shows a correlation between Earthquakes and solar system (geometrical) harmonies. The rule in science is, that you can verify the relation or not, but when you do not the verification, you cannot come on again speaking on ‘pseudoscience’.

    The very point is that there are two fields of speaking. The one point is speaking about what is yours, your opinion, your ideas or your religion, your own. The other point is science, and on this point only the strength of an argument is relevant and not the speaker or the authority or the science community in number. Who the speaker is, or what labels or academic titles he or she has on his door is not relevant. There is only a chance that an astronomer can give better arguments than a scientist who has knowledge on the physics of oceans if there are questions about the decreasing gravity prior and after eclipses:

    Has Sir Newton an answer why the local gravity is decreasing if the moon is going on to block the sun?

    Is there a formula?

    There is an argument, that in general, if an celestial object comes near to a conjunction with another object, the local gravitation (on the Sun or on other planets) can be changed.

    And as long this effect is not understood, it proves Sir Newton not totally wrong, but it flats down the equation of Sir Newton as not correct.

    I have done more as thousand discussions like these and in no case there was an agreement. There is no interest in doing hard research alone against the mainstream guided by the peer reviewers and the science security army conditioned in academies.
    This blog is special; if one idiot has some science news, not conform to the dead authorities, there is no discussion, but silence.

    V.

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