IPCC estimates of sea level rise corroborated, but large ice sheets might endure.
Richard A. Lovett
New Zealand’s mountain ranges could lose up to 85% of their glaciers by 2100. In the most comprehensive study of mountain glaciers and small ice caps to date, a team of US and Canadian scientists has projected that most of the world’s smaller glaciers will be gone by 2100.
New Zealand's mountain ranges could lose up to 85% of their glaciers by 2100. Rob Brown/Minden Pictures/FLPA
The finding confirms that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) — the scientific group assessing climate risk — was correct in estimating that by that date, complete or partial melting of smaller glaciers will contribute about the same amount to sea-level rise as meltwater from the giant ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland. The study also confirms that the IPCC was wrong in stating that Himalayan glaciers would disappear by 2035.
[…]
Radić and coauthor Regine Hock of the University of Alaska in Fairbanks conducted their study by modelling the effect of climate change on every mapped mountain glacier or ice cap, using a middle-of-the-road IPCC scenario for future emissions of greenhouse gases. They then extrapolated the results to account for the fact that while Earth’s total glaciated areas are well mapped, many sections have yet to be divided into individual glaciers.
The projected contribution of each glacier’s partial or complete melting to sea level rise ranges from 8.7 cm to 16 cm, depending on the model. The IPCC’s estimates for sea level rise by 2100 ranged from 7 to 17 centimetres in its 2007 fourth assessment report.
Glaciologist Ted Scambos of the US National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado says it is reassuring that the IPCC and the new study have independently reached the same conclusion. “Both could be wrong, but it gives more confidence that both are approximately right,” he says.
Ok… They used an IPCC emissions scenario. Presumably they used a climate sensitivity which conforms to the so-called consensus (~3.0°C per doubling of pre-industrial CO2). With the IPCC assumptions, they confirmed the IPCC’s projected sea level rise projections as well as predicting the demise of “small glaciers.”
Why is it a headline? They used the IPCC assumptions to model the IPCC results.
I wonder if they incorporated this little item into their model…
Glacier Mass Balance, Cogley 2009. Via NOAA Climate Indicators
It appears that glacier mass balance has been on the increase since 2003… What’s up with that?
The Greenland and Antarctic ice caps have been relatively permanent features throughout the Quaternary (possibly since the Oligocene). If these ice masses melted, it would be a big deal. On the other hand, small glaciers and year-round Arctic sea ice have not been permanent features. They are relatively recent and probably rare features of the Holocene. The geological evidence indicates that the presence these small ice masses is anomalous.
The “small glaciers” of Glacier National Park, Montana may have not existed during the Holocene Climatic Optimum (HCO). The geological evidence suggests that they formed about 7,000 years ago as the Earth’s climate began to cool after the HCO.
History of Glaciers in Glacier National Park
The history of glaciation within current Glacier National Park boundaries spans centuries of glacial growth and recession, carving the features we see today. Glaciers were present within current Glacier National Park boundaries as early as 7,000 years ago but may have survived an early Holocene warm period (Carrara, 1989), making them much older. These modest glaciers varied in size, tracking climatic changes, but did not grow to their Holocene maximum size until the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) around A.D. 1850. While they may not have formed in their entirety during the LIA, their maximum perimeters can be documented through mapping of lateral and terminal moraines. (Key, 2002) The extent and mass of these glaciers, as well as glaciers around the globe, has clearly decreased during the 20th century in response to warmer temperatures.
Climate reconstructions representative of the Glacier National Park region extend back multiple centuries and show numerous long-duration drought and wet periods that influenced the mass balance of glaciers (Pederson et al. 2004). Of particular note was an 80-year period (~1770-1840) of cool, wet summers and above-average winter snowfall that led to a rapid growth of glaciers just prior to the end of the LIA. Thus, in the context of the entire Holocene, the size of glaciers at the end of the LIA was an anomaly of sorts. In fact, the large extent of ice coverage removed most of the evidence of earlier glacier positions by overriding terminal and lateral moraines.
“Mapping of lateral and terminal moraines” clearly demonstrates that the maximum extent of the glaciers was reached during the Little Ice Age (LIA). If “in the context of the entire Holocene, the size of glaciers at the end of the LIA was an anomaly,” how can the current reduced extent be an anomaly? Is there some ideal extent? Something between the LIA maximum and the current extent?
The glaciers of Mt Ranier National Park may date back to the last Pleistocene glaciation, but they also exhibit a similar variability to those of Glacier National Park…
The size of glaciers on Mount Rainier has fluctuated significantly in the past. For example, during the last ice age, from about 25,000 to about 15,000 years ago, glaciers covered most of the area now within the boundaries of Mount Rainier National Park and extended to the perimeter of the present Puget Sound Basin.
Geologists can determine the former extent of glaciers on Mount Rainier by mapping the outline of glacial deposits and by noting the position of trimlines, the distinct boundaries between older and younger forests or between forests and pioneering vegetation. Geologists determine the age of some of the deposits by noting the age of the oldest trees and lichens growing on them and the degree of weatherring on boulders. Between the 14th century and AD 1850, many of the glaciers on Mount Rainier advanced to their farthest went down-valley since the last ice age. Many advances of this sort occurred worldwide during this time period known to geologists as the Little Ice Age. During the Little Ice Age, the Nisqually Glacier advanced to a position 650 feet to 800 feet down-valley from the site of the Glacier Bridge, Tahoma and South Tahoma Glaciers merged at the base of Glacier Island, and the terminus of Emmons Glacier reached within 1.2 miles of the White River Campground.
Retreat of the Little Ice Age glaciers was slow until about 1920 when retreat became more rapid. Between the height of the Little Ice Age and 1950, Mount Rainier’s glaciers lost about one-quarter of their length. Beginning in 1950 and continuing through the early 1980’s, however, many of the major glaciers advanced in response to relatively cooler temperatures of the mid-century. The Carbon, Cowlitz, Emmons, and Nisqually Glaciers advanced during the late 1970’s and early 1980’s as a result of high snowfalls during the 1960’s and 1970’s. Since the early-1980’s and through 1992, however, many glaciers have been thinning and retreating and some advances have slowed, perhaps in response to drier conditions that have prevailed at Mount Rainier since 1977.
The Mt. Ranier glaciers also seem to have reached their maximum Holocene extent during the Little Ice Age.
Guess what other ice feature appears to have also reached its maximum Holocene extent during the Little Ice Age?
Fig. 7 from McKay et al., 2008.
McKay et al., 2008 demonstrated that the modern Arctic sea ice cover is anomalously high and the Arctic summer sea surface temperature is anomalously low relative to the rest of the Holocene…
Modern sea-ice cover in the study area, expressed here as the number of months/year with >50% coverage, averages 10.6 ±1.2 months/year… Present day SST and SSS in August are 1.1 ± 2.4 8C and 28.5 ±1.3, respectively… In the Holocene record of core HLY0501-05, sea-ice cover has ranged between 5.5 and 9 months/year, summer SSS has varied between 22 and 30, and summer SST has ranged from 3 to 7.5 8C (Fig. 7).
If we take the HacCRUT3 instrumental temperature record for the Northern Hemisphere and tack it on to a recent Northern Hemisphere climate reconstruction (Ljungqvist, 2009) and then scale the GISP2 climate reconstruction (Alley, 2004) to fit the instrumental record and reconstruction, we can see that the modern climate is actually rather cool relative to the rest of the Holocene…
Some may take issue with tying the GISP2 reconstruction into a hemispheric data set… But there aren’t any published Northern Hemisphere multi-proxy reconstructions that go back more than a couple of thousand years. There is a Wikipedia global reconstruction that I think was an attempt to minimise the Holocene Climatic Optimum…
The Wiki-reconstruction does attenuate the HCO a bit; but it still shows that the modern climate is down right cold in comparison to the rest of the Holocene.
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hunter
March 19, 2012 1:03 pm
The team blew the Himalayas, so now they are seeking out yet another remote place to make obscure claims that will fall apart under review.
KnR
March 19, 2012 1:08 pm
‘complete or partial melting of smaller glaciers ‘
Well there smart enough to know this idea gives them a total get out , for ANY melting can be sold as ‘proving ‘ the claim that there was ‘partial melting’
Good PR but awful science, that would be the standard model of doing climate science then.
Climate change is that thing where if you study glaciers individually, there is almost never evidence of any global effect.
Colin in BC
March 19, 2012 1:17 pm
They used the IPCC assumptions to model the IPCC results.
My exact thought while reading this nonsense. All modeling, no actual observation, based on IPCC data, confirming….uh…. IPCC data. The era of post normal science continues apace, I guess.
From: Why the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are Not Collapsing
School of Earth and Geographical Sciences, The University of Western Australia
Colin Pain, August 2009 Glaciers and precipitation.
We have seen that glaciers and ice sheets are in a state of quasi equilibrium, governed by rates of melting and rates of accumulation.
For a glacier to maintain its present size it must have precipitation as snowfall at its source. This leads to a slightly complex relationship with temperature. If the regional climate becomes too dry, there will be no precipitation, so the glacier will diminish. This could happen if the region became cold enough to reduce evaporation from the ocean.
If temperatures rise, evaporation is enhanced and so therefore is snowfall. Paradoxically a regional rise of temperature may lead to increased growth of glaciers and ice sheets. Today, for example, the ice sheets of both Antarctica and Greenland are growing by accumulation of snow.
Proof? That it is getting colder, at least in the respective “region” of these small glaciers…
Bob H
Dave
March 19, 2012 1:33 pm
So the IPCC prediction are in complete agreement with the IPCC predictions.
Amazing..and…wait for it… it’s worse than we thoguht.
John Trigge
March 19, 2012 1:40 pm
Please excuse my pedantry –
‘The Mt. Ranier glaciers also seem to have beached…’ – suggest reached.
[Corrected, Thank you Robt]
Tom J
March 19, 2012 1:44 pm
So, glaciologist Ted Scambos said, in reference to the IPCC & his new study that, “Both could be wrong, but it gives more confidence that both are approximately right”. Is it just me or does that statement come across as somewhat, well, I don’t know? Maybe like, “gosh we sort of hope you think, or we’re really trying to give you confidence that the massive amounts of money we’re gonna hit you up for that chemotherapy treatment was maybe an approximately correct decision”.
Nice piece of work, well researched, well written.
Glaciers advance and retreat. In the 1600s they were advancing, and had the modern alarmists been around, the folks of that era would have been treated to stories of future advances.
Then they were retreating and we get stories of future retreats … the foolishness of these “draw a line and extend it to 2100” clowns would be laughable if it weren’t so dangerous.
w.
PS—I added “Guest Post by David Middleton” to the post.
Day after day they (Grant /rent seekers) keep pumping the data fudging and fraud using the UN mafia’s IPPC projections. The good thing is they are their own worst enemy they have cried wolf to often and are now preaching to the the ever shrinking but powerful warmist choir. Thank god for skeptics and and the internet. This is war and they will never stop and neither will we!!!!
Tom J
March 19, 2012 1:59 pm
Is it just me or does that statement by glaciologist Ted Scambos (in reference to their new study and the IPCC) where he says, “Both could be wrong, but it gives more confidence that both are approximately right,” seems to convey something really flaky about their thought process. Can’t he just say, “Well, we don’t really know.”
The debate on Polar Ice and Glacier limits related to greenhouse gas emmissions (Anthropogenic warming) is also compromised by Milankovic Cycles…..this is all understood…BUT ….with Human Population reaching 7,000 million and exponentially climbing…the Anthropogenic arguement cannot be disregarded except by people with questionable agendas (Catholic church, creationists, muslims etc etc )…..there is no need for me to make a Scientific case for this…the population is set to keep rising and the greenhouse gas emmissions will carry on ….no one seems able to stop it….and the results will be seen and experienced by all….until such time as they MAKE THE POLLUTER PAY and EMPOWER WOMEN (to get the fertility rate down to 2 or fewer)
Very good post. Thanks.
What bothers me is that the alarmist religion is forever hollering “look something is changing!!!” And yet, the conditions on planet Earth have always been in flux. Always.
Justthinkin
March 19, 2012 2:05 pm
“using a middle-of-the-road IPCC scenario for future emissions of greenhouse gases.”
Hummmmmm. Looks like David beat me to it!LOL But that extract right there completely destroys any credibility these guys may have had. They used a GIGO model of a GIGO model to come up with another GIGO model??? And they wonder why most people with more than two brain cells and critical thinking skills call them “cultists in the CAGW religion”? Just follow the money.
RHS
March 19, 2012 2:05 pm
I think if glaciers were to start growing rather than stay static or shrink, there would be more concern for anyone down stream who depends on the glacial outflow. After all, how much outflow can there be if a glacier were to start growing. I think all the worst fears of no down stream water would come true. And that to me is a great catastrophe than shrinking glaciers where a reservoir can be built to better accumulate and mitigate a future shortage. But there may not be any money in that train of thought…
scf
March 19, 2012 2:08 pm
If I am reading correctly, they are using models based on IPCC assumptions, and these model results match the IPCC model results.
And then they say “The finding confirms that the IPCC was correct”.
Since when is one model the confirmation of another model? In my eyes, the only way to confirm something is real data and/or experimentation!
It’s like saying you have an imaginary friend Ernie, and you other imaginary friend Bert has confirmed for you that Ernie exists. Wow.
This may come as a shock to many: Since we are at the very end of the Interglacial Warmup Period, why should it be a surprize that glaciers are still melting? What should be of concern is that any glaciers – and there are many- are growing. The 10,500 year temperature curve of the GISP2 Ice Core data is heading down with increasing acceleration. In 2009 the Sun transitioned into a Grand Solar Minima. Better get some snow skiis, and stock up on food and fuel. You will be needing them for the next few decades.
Billy Liar
March 19, 2012 2:18 pm
The Wiki-reconstruction does attenuate the HCO a bit; but it still shows that the modern climate is down right cold in comparison to the rest of the Holocene.
Err, not exactly – it tries to pretend the temperature since the last glaciation has been within ±0.5C of some mythical average; currently at the -0.5C end – hardly ‘downright cold’.
I absolutely agree with the rest of your post. It is ludicrous to pretend that the end of the world is nigh because some small glaciers may disappear. Imagine what panic there’s going to be when they start growing again – as the Fox and Franz Josef glaciers did a bit in NZ recently.
Gail Combs
March 19, 2012 2:20 pm
And these clowns never mention it is the amount of snow in winter that is a major factor in growth and retreat. If the temperature variation is 0.6C/century then it ain’t going to be melting it is going to be snow accumulation that is the main factor.
Rosco
March 19, 2012 2:27 pm
How much snow and ice will make the alarmists happy ??
agwnonsense
March 19, 2012 2:28 pm
The only accuracy you will find in a computer model is “garbage in=garbage out” 4.5 billion years of climate change is pretty hard to argue with.CLIMATE CHANGE IS NATURAL and CO2 IS LIFE. Get out and take a look at our BEAUTIFUL EVER CHANGING WORLD it’s not a computer model.
Peter Miller
March 19, 2012 2:37 pm
Once again, the alarmist approach is to ignore the effect of soot on the glaciers and that most glaciers have been in retreat for the past 150 years.
Man made deforestaion adversely affecting precipitation in the region of the glaciers in temperate and tropical latitudes is also usually ignored .
Natural climate cycles have been affecting glacial growth and retreat throughout the Pleistocene Era (the last 2.65 million years), but now the alarmists will argue it is different: glacial retreat is only caused by rising CO2 levels and it is all the fault of man – so it obviously needs more study and more grants and more people – the classic mantra of the pseudo-scientist.
The team blew the Himalayas, so now they are seeking out yet another remote place to make obscure claims that will fall apart under review.
‘complete or partial melting of smaller glaciers ‘
Well there smart enough to know this idea gives them a total get out , for ANY melting can be sold as ‘proving ‘ the claim that there was ‘partial melting’
Good PR but awful science, that would be the standard model of doing climate science then.
Climate change is that thing where if you study glaciers individually, there is almost never evidence of any global effect.
My exact thought while reading this nonsense. All modeling, no actual observation, based on IPCC data, confirming….uh…. IPCC data. The era of post normal science continues apace, I guess.
If you look deeply at the charts on wikipedia, you’ll see a lot of familiar names as sources.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2000_Year_Temperature_Comparison.png
is the wikipedyized hockey stick, but check out the sources for the candy-colored curves.
From: Why the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are Not Collapsing
School of Earth and Geographical Sciences, The University of Western Australia
Colin Pain, August 2009
Glaciers and precipitation.
We have seen that glaciers and ice sheets are in a state of quasi equilibrium, governed by rates of melting and rates of accumulation.
For a glacier to maintain its present size it must have precipitation as snowfall at its source. This leads to a slightly complex relationship with temperature.
If the regional climate becomes too dry, there will be no precipitation, so the glacier will diminish. This could happen if the region became cold enough to reduce evaporation from the ocean.
If temperatures rise, evaporation is enhanced and so therefore is snowfall. Paradoxically a regional rise of temperature may lead to increased growth of glaciers and ice sheets. Today, for example, the ice sheets of both Antarctica and Greenland are growing by accumulation of snow.
Proof? That it is getting colder, at least in the respective “region” of these small glaciers…
Bob H
So the IPCC prediction are in complete agreement with the IPCC predictions.
Amazing..and…wait for it… it’s worse than we thoguht.
Please excuse my pedantry –
‘The Mt. Ranier glaciers also seem to have beached…’ – suggest reached.
[Corrected, Thank you Robt]
So, glaciologist Ted Scambos said, in reference to the IPCC & his new study that, “Both could be wrong, but it gives more confidence that both are approximately right”. Is it just me or does that statement come across as somewhat, well, I don’t know? Maybe like, “gosh we sort of hope you think, or we’re really trying to give you confidence that the massive amounts of money we’re gonna hit you up for that chemotherapy treatment was maybe an approximately correct decision”.
Nice piece of work, well researched, well written.
Glaciers advance and retreat. In the 1600s they were advancing, and had the modern alarmists been around, the folks of that era would have been treated to stories of future advances.
Then they were retreating and we get stories of future retreats … the foolishness of these “draw a line and extend it to 2100” clowns would be laughable if it weren’t so dangerous.
w.
PS—I added “Guest Post by David Middleton” to the post.
http://i446.photobucket.com/albums/qq187/bobclive/smgleiss.gif
Bit of man made co2 global waming here.
Sorry wrong photo.
http://i446.photobucket.com/albums/qq187/bobclive/swissglacier.jpg
Day after day they (Grant /rent seekers) keep pumping the data fudging and fraud using the UN mafia’s IPPC projections. The good thing is they are their own worst enemy they have cried wolf to often and are now preaching to the the ever shrinking but powerful warmist choir. Thank god for skeptics and and the internet. This is war and they will never stop and neither will we!!!!
Is it just me or does that statement by glaciologist Ted Scambos (in reference to their new study and the IPCC) where he says, “Both could be wrong, but it gives more confidence that both are approximately right,” seems to convey something really flaky about their thought process. Can’t he just say, “Well, we don’t really know.”
The debate on Polar Ice and Glacier limits related to greenhouse gas emmissions (Anthropogenic warming) is also compromised by Milankovic Cycles…..this is all understood…BUT ….with Human Population reaching 7,000 million and exponentially climbing…the Anthropogenic arguement cannot be disregarded except by people with questionable agendas (Catholic church, creationists, muslims etc etc )…..there is no need for me to make a Scientific case for this…the population is set to keep rising and the greenhouse gas emmissions will carry on ….no one seems able to stop it….and the results will be seen and experienced by all….until such time as they MAKE THE POLLUTER PAY and EMPOWER WOMEN (to get the fertility rate down to 2 or fewer)
Very good post. Thanks.
What bothers me is that the alarmist religion is forever hollering “look something is changing!!!” And yet, the conditions on planet Earth have always been in flux. Always.
“using a middle-of-the-road IPCC scenario for future emissions of greenhouse gases.”
Hummmmmm. Looks like David beat me to it!LOL But that extract right there completely destroys any credibility these guys may have had. They used a GIGO model of a GIGO model to come up with another GIGO model??? And they wonder why most people with more than two brain cells and critical thinking skills call them “cultists in the CAGW religion”? Just follow the money.
I think if glaciers were to start growing rather than stay static or shrink, there would be more concern for anyone down stream who depends on the glacial outflow. After all, how much outflow can there be if a glacier were to start growing. I think all the worst fears of no down stream water would come true. And that to me is a great catastrophe than shrinking glaciers where a reservoir can be built to better accumulate and mitigate a future shortage. But there may not be any money in that train of thought…
If I am reading correctly, they are using models based on IPCC assumptions, and these model results match the IPCC model results.
And then they say “The finding confirms that the IPCC was correct”.
Since when is one model the confirmation of another model? In my eyes, the only way to confirm something is real data and/or experimentation!
It’s like saying you have an imaginary friend Ernie, and you other imaginary friend Bert has confirmed for you that Ernie exists. Wow.
This may come as a shock to many: Since we are at the very end of the Interglacial Warmup Period, why should it be a surprize that glaciers are still melting? What should be of concern is that any glaciers – and there are many- are growing. The 10,500 year temperature curve of the GISP2 Ice Core data is heading down with increasing acceleration. In 2009 the Sun transitioned into a Grand Solar Minima. Better get some snow skiis, and stock up on food and fuel. You will be needing them for the next few decades.
The Wiki-reconstruction does attenuate the HCO a bit; but it still shows that the modern climate is down right cold in comparison to the rest of the Holocene.
Err, not exactly – it tries to pretend the temperature since the last glaciation has been within ±0.5C of some mythical average; currently at the -0.5C end – hardly ‘downright cold’.
I absolutely agree with the rest of your post. It is ludicrous to pretend that the end of the world is nigh because some small glaciers may disappear. Imagine what panic there’s going to be when they start growing again – as the Fox and Franz Josef glaciers did a bit in NZ recently.
And these clowns never mention it is the amount of snow in winter that is a major factor in growth and retreat. If the temperature variation is 0.6C/century then it ain’t going to be melting it is going to be snow accumulation that is the main factor.
How much snow and ice will make the alarmists happy ??
The only accuracy you will find in a computer model is “garbage in=garbage out” 4.5 billion years of climate change is pretty hard to argue with.CLIMATE CHANGE IS NATURAL and CO2 IS LIFE. Get out and take a look at our BEAUTIFUL EVER CHANGING WORLD it’s not a computer model.
Once again, the alarmist approach is to ignore the effect of soot on the glaciers and that most glaciers have been in retreat for the past 150 years.
Man made deforestaion adversely affecting precipitation in the region of the glaciers in temperate and tropical latitudes is also usually ignored .
Natural climate cycles have been affecting glacial growth and retreat throughout the Pleistocene Era (the last 2.65 million years), but now the alarmists will argue it is different: glacial retreat is only caused by rising CO2 levels and it is all the fault of man – so it obviously needs more study and more grants and more people – the classic mantra of the pseudo-scientist.