CSU’s Klotzbach and Gray Suspend December Hurricane Forecast

Worldwide Tropical cyclones from 1985 to 2005

Cumulative hurricane tracks - Image via Wikipedia

UPDATE:  note to readers, Gray and Klotzbach are only discontinuing December forecasts for the season ahead due to limited predictive skill — for the time being.  A main reason is the well-known “Spring barrier” in El Nino Southern Oscillation forecasts for the next year…

When is the last time you can recall any scientist suspending a highly visible public work because they decided it just didn’t have any predictive skill?

This is refreshing.

From: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2011/dec2011/dec2011.pdf

QUALITATIVE DISCUSSION OF ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY FOR 2012

We are discontinuing our early December quantitative hurricane forecast for the next year and giving a more qualitative discussion of the factors which will determine next year’s Atlantic basin hurricane activity. Our early December Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill even though the hindcast studies on which they were based had considerable skill. Reasons for this unexpected lack of skill are discussed.



Relationships between predictors and predictands which once seemed quite strong may fail to work in future years due to a phenomenon known as the ‘siege of time’. It is the failure of these once-promising relationships which requires the forecaster to demand as much understanding of linkages between predictors and predictands as possible.

We have developed a new way of assessing next year’s activity in terms of two primary physical parameters:
1. the strength of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC)
2. the phase of ENSO

We strongly believe that the increases in atmospheric CO2 since the start of the 20th century have had little or no significant effect on Atlantic basin or global TC activity as extensively discussed in our many previous forecast write-ups and recently in Gray (2011). Global tropical cyclone activity has shown no significant trend over the past thirty years.

h/t to WUWT reader JohnD

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69 Responses to CSU’s Klotzbach and Gray Suspend December Hurricane Forecast

  1. Greg Holmes says:

    Wow, truth from the horses mouth, I love them.

  2. edbarbar says:

    It’s the right thing to do. Now if only some other scientists would figure out their methods have no predictive value before they publish papers on a theory.

  3. Juraj V. says:

    Those “increases in atmospheric CO2″ has been actually an addition of one (1) CO2 molecule to existing three (3) CO2 molecules per ten thousand (10,000) other molecules during the last 200 years. Anyone who believes that this single molecule has an effect on hurricanes or extremes or whatever is just.. believer, of fool.

  4. AnonyMoose says:

    Is more money needed?

  5. Ron Cram says:

    It is nice to see scientists admitting that models with terrific hindcast skill have absolutely no predictive skill. I’ve been saying this for years. Orrin Pilkey and his daughter wrote a book about it titled “Useless Arithmetic.”

  6. Ben D Hillicoss says:

    “We strongly believe that the increases in atmospheric CO2 since the start of the 20th century have had little or no significant effect on Atlantic basin …”

    I quote: “Yeah Baby, Yeah!”

  7. etudiant says:

    Well, seems that reality still packs a punch.
    Good on these guys for being honest enough to explicitly admit that their forecasts were worthless.
    Their comments about the absence of any CO2 impact may wind up being the most significant part of this story.

  8. The other Tom says:

    That’s the difference between a scientist and a politician.

  9. Latitude says:

    News Flash…..
    Just because you can model the past…
    …does not mean you can predict the future

    Film at 11…………climate models pay attention

  10. richard verney says:

    “We strongly believe that the increases in atmospheric CO2 since the start of the 20th century have had little or no significant effect on Atlantic basin or global TC activity as extensively discussed in our many previous forecast write-ups and recently in Gray (2011). Global tropical cyclone activity has shown no significant trend over the past thirty years.”

    It is refreshing to see such honesty. Lets hope that more of those involved in using models to predict things will follow suit.

  11. RHS says:

    When it comes to Hurricane knowledge, William Gray seems to be the level/cooler head. A few years ago (Katrina time frame) he took a lot of flack from saying Hurricane’s have a natural high and low cycle. And we’re currently in a higher cycle which should end about 2030′ish. Not that I remember the dates, I remember he didn’t think highly of the cause or the band wagon it was riding.

  12. Fred from Canuckistan says:

    wow . . . a moment of clarity and honesty from the Climate Scientology world.

    Most refreshing.

    Next up, true confessions from the Climate Modelers.

  13. squareheaded says:

    Reasons for this unexpected lack of skill are discussed…a phenomenon known as the ‘siege of time’

    I would rather have an explanation as to why the discovery of their total lack of predictive power was unexpected. It should have been assumed from the beginning.

  14. Kelvin Vaughan says:

    When is the last time you can recall any scientist suspending a highly visible public work because they decided it just didn’t have any predictive skill?

    The UK met. office suspended their long range forcasts not long ago for the same reason Anthony.

  15. John West says:

    “One of the primary impediments to successful forecasts at this lead time is likely due to the inability to predict ENSO through the springtime predictability barrier.”

    http://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/reprints/Samelson-Tziperman-2001.pdf
    “However, the rough correspondence between our results with those of Moore and
    Kleeman (1996) who analyzed a regular, nonchaotic oscillation indicates that we need to keep looking for such a differentiating signal in order to understand whether the observed irregularity of El Nin˜o arises primarily from stochastic forcing or from low-order chaos.”

    Hmmmm.

  16. Steve Keohane says:

    Looks like a reasonable approach. Now if climate scientists would stop their hysterical forecasts of impending doom, based on models and non-accelerating trends, we could put our efforts and resources into solving real problems.

  17. Jim says:

    OT, [snip . . indeed. Tips and Notes beckons you]

  18. Jimbo says:

    Global tropical cyclone activity has shown no significant trend over the past thirty years.

    Despite global warming since the 1970s and the recent ‘hottest’ decade on the record we have just seen a 30 year record low ACE index.

  19. son of mulder says:

    A qualitative assessment will be even worse. Just give up and give the grant money back, or have they run out of grant money. Either way predicting chaotic behaviour is a mugs game.

  20. A physicist says:

    Anthony Watt asks: When is the last time you can recall any scientist suspending a highly visible public work because they decided it just didn’t have any predictive skill?

    In medicine it very commonly happens that high-profile trials of diagnostic methods are terminated for lack of clinical efficacy.

    More broadly, it commonly happens in science an initially high-profile scientific trial becomes steadily lower-and-lower profile as the trial’s lack of efficacy becomes apparent, until the trial is quietly terminated, noticed by few and mourned by none.

    Trials of earthquake prediction methods have historically followed this scientific arc, for example.

    In summary, Klotzbach and Gray were following common-and-accepted scientific practice. For which, good on them.

    An example of likely future importance for climate change research will be predictions of Antarctic ice flow rates, which now can be observed with high accuracy, and which in coming decades will provide a key test-bed for climate prediction science.

  21. lemiere jacques says:

    imagine that some use model that don’t have any hindcast skills …..

  22. kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:

    Our early December Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill even though the hindcast studies on which they were based had considerable skill. Reasons for this unexpected lack of skill are discussed.

    Newsflash: Our models are crap. Details at 11.

    11: When we tune our models to the past, they can predict the past. But they do diddly-squat about predicting the future. It’s possible we don’t know enough about everything that influences weather and climate to make models with predicative skill about the future. But we still kicked butt on foretelling what the weather used to be.

  23. Eric Anderson says:

    “Our early December Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill even though the hindcast studies on which they were based had considerable skill.”

    This is an absolutely critical point. Hindcasting skill — even very impressive hindcasting skill — simply does not translate into forecasting skill. Are the temperature modelers listening?

  24. AnonyMoose says:

    Past performance is no guarantee of future results. That’s what financial services say, and they’re using computer models whose results they can test every business day.

  25. DirkH says:

    “…have not shown real-time forecast skill even though the hindcast studies on which they were based had considerable skill”

    Kudos to them! This is the way it has to be done!

  26. This concerns me in much the same way as a pharmaceutical company that says it will fall back on “a qualitative discussion of the factors” in drug safety because the quantitative data were not useful.

  27. Curt says:

    I often compare in my mind long-term weather/climate forecasts with comparable forecasts for the stock and bond markets. The financial markets are littered with forecasting algorithms that hindcast incredibly well but turn out to have absolutely no predictive value.

  28. cjames says:

    I assume they will still be issuing forecasts as we get closer to spring. It appears to only be the December forecasts that are discontinued. And speaking of hurricanes, I haven’t seen a post or comment from Dr. Ryan Maue in quite a while.

  29. Latitude says:

    The two take homes are…..
    CO2 has had no effect….
    …and the increase is only because of better detection of little storms

    Something that was obvious to everyone else……

  30. NeedleFactory says:

    I was intrigued by the phrase “siege of time.” Via Google I found an article: “Teleconnections and the siege of time” by C. S. Ramaoe published in the Journal of Climatology in 1983. The abstract explains nicely; you can find it here: .

  31. Peter Miller says:

    The other Tom wrote:

    “That’s the difference between a scientist and a politician.”

    He should have said: “That’s the difference between: i) a scientist, and ii) a ‘ciimate scientist’ and/or a politician.”

  32. Bob says:

    Even though a model can explain the past data, it says almost nothing about the predictive value of the model. Predictions must be tested with future data. But, nobody wants to wait around for their grant money.

  33. jono says:

    Reading between the lines,
    have they just had a change in head of department or a new marketing and media director ?
    .

  34. These gentlemen are demonstrating what science is supposed to be about. You do the best you can with what you have and modify the procedures and hypotheses, as a function of results. It works or it does not. If it works you try and make it better, if not you find a different method. We humans may not like risk and it may be desirable to eliminate or moderate as much of it as we can, however, that is not the role of science. Science is only a tool a way of thinking and nothing else.

  35. mrfunn says:

    NOAA upgrades storms that would have previously gone undetected

    From:
    Palm Beach Weather Matters

    NOAA adds one tropical storm in end-of-season analysis
    By: John Nelander | Tuesday, November 29, 2011, 09:04 AM
    http://www.palmbeachdailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/palmbeach/weather1/entries/2011/11/29/noaa_adds_one_tropical_storm_i.html

    “Also gettting a post-storm upgrade was Tropical Storm Nate, which analysts now believe was actually a hurricane.

    ‘This unnamed storm, along with several other weak, short-lived named storms, could have gone undetected without modern satellite technology,’ NOAA said in a news release marking the end of the 2011 hurricane season.”

  36. Hank Riehl says:

    These guys are true American heros. For giving us the truth, they will be ostracized and discredited by their own “scientific” community and become Ishmael.

    If projections a few month out are worthless, then projections 20-years out are equally worthless. Where is the main stream media on this one? Don’t they think that all those Americans who spent billions of dollars on related insurance policies would like to know?

    The big HOAX is dying an ugly death. And it can’t come fast enough.

  37. Joe Bastardi says:

    We gotta get off the number game as its now something out of the control of nature and in the hands of people that can name whatever they want, when they want, and the further out at sea the more likely. The Ace index is the way to go and it shows this year was indeed much less of a year than last year, as was forecasted as far as total intensity, even though TPC managed to get another 19 name year. That also has to be considered.

    So they should go to ace and we should all make an effort to use that as the measure of the season, as it would take the power out of the hands of those naming storms in the middle of nowhere, going nowhere. Either that, or have 2 separate naming areas, one comparable to where we could always see storms, the other to ramp up the numbers.

    Given that we had a closed rotary circulation hit Cape Canaveral with hurricane winds, an eye
    and a 10 mb pressure fall in October after undergoing a fast transition to a warm core over 83 degree water, and we have a whole slew of storms that get named in the middle of nowhere, ace is the place to go when objectively evaluating the measure of season.

    For the record, next years ace should be close to normal ( within 15) as the amo continues to cool and the enso warms a bit. The “bad”news is that we are in a similar cycle to the 1950s and the normal ace for big east coast years is near normal. This year as active, but not by much ( I believe we ranked 21st)

    and yes it is cyclical as the coming cooling is similar to the 60s and 70s.. as I said, the stage of the game now is closer to the 1950s.

    And will someone please help Rush Limbaugh to understand what this story is really about, as he is making more of it, tying in computers and global warming. Since Gray is one of the most vehement anti AGW people on the planet and his method involves relatively little in the way of modeling, he is really not portraying this correctly. Perhaps Dr, Roy or Dr Ryan Maue should give him a call before it affects his accuracy rating

    Interestingly enough he has an angle here that would suit him better, the willy nilly mega naming of storms in the middle of nowhere that pumps up numbers and forces Gray to have to adjust to human factors he has no control of ( and I am not talking about AGW)

  38. Latitude says:

    Joe Bastardi says:
    December 13, 2011 at 10:13 am
    ==============================
    Joe, doesn’t naming more small storms also contribute to ACE?

  39. Allan M says:

    We strongly believe that the increases in atmospheric CO2 since the start of the 20th century have had little or no significant effect on Atlantic basin or global TC activity as extensively discussed in our many previous forecast write-ups and recently in Gray (2011). Global tropical cyclone activity has shown no significant trend over the past thirty years.

    Will this result in an apology from Trenberth to Chris Lansea? Oops! Forgot. god does not apologise.

  40. Nick Shaw says:

    “increases in atmospheric CO2 since the start of the 20th century have had little or no significant effect on Atlantic basin or global TC activity as extensively discussed in our many previous forecast write-ups and recently in Gray (2011)”
    Really? They have mentioned CO2 having no effect many times in past reports and nobody has noticed this intriguing piece of information until they admit they can’t forecast?
    Why would that be, I wonder? Was it because they forecast bigger and better hurricanes (just as the warming / CO2 crowd required) so, the lack of CO2 connection was ignored and buried?
    Have they really said this in earlier reports, one has to ask?
    And, is it just me or are the excellent results of hindcast modelling in any way influenced by having actual empirical data included in a model? I mean, it’s already happened, how could that not influence a model of the same timeframe? Or am I confused?
    I could hindcast the Second World War (with dead on accuracy at that!) but, I don’t think that will help me in predicting the outcome of the next one!

  41. DJ says:

    Ok. This pretty much goes hand-in-hand with the majority of beliefs (notice I say beliefs) here..but when we look at the real scientific study done here at the beginning of the 2011 hurricane season, how’d WE do in our collective skill in predicting the season?

    I know I overestimated the number. So who won the pool?

  42. Duncan Binks says:

    Kelvin Vaughan says…

    ‘When is the last time you can recall any scientist suspending a highly visible public work because they decided it just didn’t have any predictive skill?

    The UK met. office suspended their long range forcasts not long ago for the same reason Anthony.’

    I really don’t think the Met Office ‘suspended’ their forecasts
    for the ‘same reason’. Their motive was downright embarrassment and public humiliation.

    Slightly different, in my perception

    Duncan (UK)

  43. Joe Bastardi says:

    yes naming of these small storms does, but it does influence the total ace as it does the total number. A 40 kt storms for a day adds a number, but may add very little to the ace which is more sensitive to strong, long lasting storms. A storm like jose added over 5% to the total number, but less than .5% to the total ace. see what I mean.

  44. David, UK says:

    So that’s Klotzbach and Gray off Mann’s, Jones’ and Trenberth’s Christmas recycled-card list.

  45. mrfunn says:

    Joe Bastardi says:
    December 13, 2011 at 11:24 am

    Which number will the MSM report?

  46. Ryan Maue says:

    Global tropical cyclone activity (or lack thereof) has continued at near historical lows. This is the “new normal”. An upward (or downward) trend may emerge in the next 30 to 50 years — but NOT now or for the foreseeable future.
    From http://tropical.policlimate.com

    Global hurricane and major hurricane numbers since 1979. No significant trend — up or down.

  47. Latitude says:

    Joe Bastardi says:
    December 13, 2011 at 11:24 am

    yes naming of these small storms does, but it does influence the total ace as it does the total number. A 40 kt storms for a day adds a number, but may add very little to the ace which is more sensitive to strong, long lasting storms. A storm like jose added over 5% to the total number, but less than .5% to the total ace. see what I mean.
    ===========================================
    Got it, thanks…..
    ….naming a bunch of storms, that would have never been even seen before, will throw off the historical ACE

    I see Ryan just posted “historical lows” and “no significant trend”…and missed the obvious trend of recording/finding more small short lived cyclones…….

    If there is no significant trend, and more storms are being “found”….

  48. JJ says:

    Relationships between predictors and predictands which once seemed quite strong may fail to work in future years due to a phenomenon known as the ‘siege of time’.

    Of course, that sort of problem can be corrected using a phenomenon known as “Mike’s Nature Trick”.

    Don’t these guys know that? They must not be REAL climate scientists.

  49. Theo Goodwin says:

    Gray and Klotzbach write:

    “Our early December Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill even though the hindcast studies on which they were based had considerable skill.”

    Publication of this statement cannot be praised enough. It is an accurate statement about the use of models in forecasting extreme weather. The main conclusion to be taken from this is that “hindcast skill” has nothing to do with prediction or “forecast skill.” All that models can do is sophisticated extrapolation from graphs. You can create a model that is perfect in matching past graphs but that gives it no predictive value whatsoever. Using the model for predictions is simply a sophisticated extrapolation from past graphs. It is not possible to make predictions from graphs. You must have genuine physical hypotheses to make predictions. If you had those physical hypotheses you would need no models, except for efficiency of calculation. Attempting to use models as substitutes for physical hypotheses is sheer folly and always will be.

    This publication will be forever recognized as a landmark in the climate wars. These scientists have demonstrated the good judgment and modesty that all scientists must possess. This publication will be recognized as the beginning of the return of good judgment and modesty to mainstream climate science.

  50. Theo Goodwin says:

    Duncan Binks says:
    December 13, 2011 at 10:52 am

    “I really don’t think the Met Office ‘suspended’ their forecasts
    for the ‘same reason’. Their motive was downright embarrassment and public humiliation.Slightly different, in my perception.”

    I agree. The Met Office “fessed up” to absolutely nothing. Gray and Klotzbach stated quite clearly that perfect hindcast does not mean that the model is predictive. That point is a huge concession to skeptics.

  51. Evil Denier says:

    ‘Fore’ = ‘hind’. Not.
    Michael (E) and Gavin:
    You are reading this? Aren’t you?

  52. Ralph says:

    But I thought the “science was settled”. Are they saying there are still some unknowns within this sphere of research??

    /sarc

  53. Latitude says:

    Theo Goodwin says:
    December 13, 2011 at 12:57 pm

    Gray and Klotzbach write:

    “Our early December Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill even though the hindcast studies on which they were based had considerable skill.”
    =====================================
    Aren’t hurricane and climate models basically the same………..

  54. This study is deeply flawed and is likely outside of the unanimous consensus. As all of you should know by now beyond reasonable doubt, the new null hypothesis is it may be worse than we thought. If you are not able to positively demonstrate it can’t be the case under any circumstances, the precautionary principle requires you to transfer all the money you have in your possession and some more to our bank account or else 10:10

    And now /sarc off

  55. NK says:

    William Gray = Honest man. He’s not whoring for the next grant, he tries to serve the public interest, and protect people and property from real angers, i.e. strong hurricanes, not concocted ‘catastrophies’ manufactured by ‘models’

  56. Theo Goodwin says:

    Latitude says:
    December 13, 2011 at 1:35 pm

    Yes. Because I am not intimately familiar with the model used by Gray and Klotzbach, I took the conservative approach of referring to extreme events.

  57. petermue says:

    Our early December Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill even though the hindcast studies on which they were based had considerable skill. Reasons for this unexpected lack of skill are discussed.

    Before throwing around with laurels… this stinks for me.
    It could also mean, that new models (and of course more money) are required to “fabricate” the opposite.

    And keep in mind the buzzwords “Atlantic bassin” and “real-time”.
    This seems quite restricting on a local event and a real-time prediction only.

  58. jack morrow says:

    Joe Bastardi is the one to watch. He predicted early most of the paths of last seasons hurricanes. He may not be perfect ,but show me 1 person or group who is better.

  59. Samurai says:

    “the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill even though the hindcast studies on which they were based had considerable skill. Reasons for this unexpected lack of skill are discussed”

    LOL! If this one phrase doesn’t perfectly describe the fundamental flaw of CAGW theory, I’ll eat my carbon footprint…

  60. eyesonu says:

    Being on the east coast of the US I follow the Atlantic storms. There is a much cooling of the sea temps behind the storms.

    Has anyone considered that as the number of named storms increases that the overall power may be reduced as multiple storms remove heat from the oceans to space and therefore would be less energy for the next. Kind of like a self regulating atmospheric/ocean relationship. I would guess that the ACE would be the best indicator but would simply reflect surface temps. I would think that fewer storms would produce stronger ones.

    I made a personal prediction that Irene would be a washout (collaspe) as far as wind once it began moving north along the Gulf Stream at about the same speed as the Gulf Stream. It pulled the heat from the sea and as it moved at the same rate there was basically no source of additional energy except at the rear or southern portion of the storm when it slowed. That was confirmed by satilite views showing the eye wall behind the main cloud/storm body. The track it followed and the speed would seem to be able to only produce a tropical storm. It was a big tropical storm but far from a hurricane at landfall.

    I believe that Irene was some politician’s fantasy maneuver. The media sure has been quiet since with regards to the big scare along the east coast and a few inches of rain in New England. I can still see that film clip of the covered bridge washing away after it was broadcast over and over and over.

    Did New England get any rain from any systems approaching from the west or Gulf of Mexico? I don’t believe I heard about any on the news.

  61. RockyRoad says:

    Funny how a post like this is never something R. Gates or Hugh Pepper comments on. Shows what big cowards they are when it comes to their CAGW meme.

  62. To provide some context here, we do attempt to leave years out when we develop our statistical modeling on historical data. For example, in one of our early August forecast schemes, I built the forecast model on data from 1949-1989 and then tested it on data from 1900-1948 and 1990-2005. The model showed similar levels of skill on both “independent” data sets.

    For all of our models, we at least check to make sure that the correlations between predictors and hurricane activity remain statistically significant over various periods of time. For those interested, check out our forecasts at http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu or in our various peer-reviewed publications for how we go about developing a statistical forecast model.

    Our forecasts in June and August have shown promising levels of skill since they started being issued in the mid 1980s, while our early April forecast has shown improved skill in recent years. As longer-period historical datasets come on line, we hope to improve the skill of all of our statistical models. I think the primary challenge with the December outlook is that there has been no proven model (either statistical or dynamical) with skill at predicting ENSO at this extended range.

    Obviously, as one goes back further in time, there is more uncertainty, both in historical datasets of atmospheric and oceanic parameters (such as sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, etc.), as well as in historical calculations of hurricane statistics. Prior to the mid 1960s, there was no satellite data, and prior to the mid 1940s, no aircraft reconnaissance, so certainly systems in the open Atlantic were either underestimated or perhaps missed completely.

    Hopefully, this adds a little clarity to our decision to suspend quantitative guidance for the time being for this early December outlook.

  63. Black Flag says:

    The alarmists will do what they always do. Push forward with their environmentalist wacko agenda. Why? Because there is way too much money at stake for them not to. Remember, MONEY is what this is all about.
    Nothing else.
    Money.

  64. Steve Garcia says:

    @Ron Cram December 13, 2011 at 7:11 am:

    It is nice to see scientists admitting that models with terrific hindcast skill have absolutely no predictive skill. I’ve been saying this for years. Orrin Pilkey and his daughter wrote a book about it titled “Useless Arithmetic.”

    Please. This would be nice if true. But I am not disagreeing with your sentiment, only the hindcasting aspect. If you’ve seen even ONE climate model that can hindcast terrifically, point me at it. Over 10 years ago a meteorological friend pointed out that not one then could, and I haven’t heard of one since.

    So far there is no 20/20 hindsight in climate models.

    The next one will be the first one.

  65. Brian H says:

    The “siege of time” is a fancy term for unanticipated regression to the mean, IMO; unexpected due to over-optimistic statistics. AKA cherry-picking or weak significance testing, usually. But it happens a lot in medicine. Wonder drugs turn out to have little advantage over the generics they are touted to replace, etc.

  66. Brian H says:

    Phil Klotzbach says:
    December 13, 2011 at 6:13 pm

    Phil;
    Your effort to limit data snooping is commendable. What do you consider to be “significant”; i.e., how many sigmas? Climatology currently has the lowest standards of any purported science, it would seem.

  67. Michael Ozanne says:

    “”Kelvin Vaughan says:
    December 13, 2011 at 7:28 am

    “When is the last time you can recall any scientist suspending a highly visible public work because they decided it just didn’t have any predictive skill?”

    The UK met. office suspended their long range forcasts not long ago for the same reason Anthony.””

    Hi Kevin
    Not sure that being embarrassed into an action by repeated humiliating public failure counts as an exemplar of scientific integrity. Barbecue summer anyone?

  68. I typically use a two-tailed t-test, making sure that correlations are significant at the 95% level. One thing about hurricane seasons is that there is little correlation between one season and the next, so you can typically assume that each season is an individual degree of freedom. One other important thing that we do with our forecast schemes is to make sure that we have sound physical linkages for why the predictor would impact tropical cyclones. When we put out each forecast, we describe the physical tie between a predictor and hurricanes.

  69. Brian H says:

    1 sigma is barely adequate to suggest a hypothesis. As a test of factuality, it’s pathetic inadequate, in the extreme.

    Are you wrong more than 5% of the time? Consider what that means.

Comments are closed.