Brrr…the Troposphere Is Ignoring Your SUV
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
For those tracking the daily global temperature updates at the Discover website, you might have noticed the continuing drop this month in global temperatures. The mid-tropospheric AMSU channels are showing even cooler temperatures than we had at this date with the last (2008) La Nina. The following screen shot is for AMSU channel 6
A check of the lower stratospheric channels (9, 10) suggests this is not a stratospheric effect bleeding over into the tropospheric channels.
With the current (and forecast to continue) stormy pattern over the U.S., I have to wonder whether the atmosphere is currently in a destabilized state. I doubt that surface temperatures anomalies are as anomalously low as the mid-troposphere temperatures are running, which in combination with anomalously cold mid- and upper-tropospheric temperatures means there is extra energy available for storms. (Since AMSR-E failed in early October, our sea surface temperature plot is no longer showing current data, so I have no easy way to check surface temperatures.)
Of course, this too shall pass. I just thought it was an interesting curiosity during a time when some pundits are claiming global warming is “accelerating”. Apparently, they are still stuck in the last millennium.
h/t to WUWT reader David L.
(click for large version).
Thank you Dr. Spenser. The mid troposphere is something I like to watch.
Directly comparing dates seems a bit silly as can be easily seen from the ENSO page of this blog. The 2008 La Nina peaked in January and by October was close to neutral. The current La Nina only began around July and has a much lower October anomaly than in 2008.
The temperature looks to me to be warmer not colder as the y axis shows temperature increasing as the scale goes from top to bottom, Unusual in that it seems inverted. I know nothing about troposphere temperatures but just wanted to point that out.
I am sure I read somewhere that a warming Troposphere was the fingerprint of CO2 driven cAGW.
Just how often does a hypothesis have to fail to match reality before it is junked?
Disregard my last post, Looks like the y axis shows NEGATIVE temperatures so getting colder from top to bottom
The all time record low seems to have been set on Nov 29th 2006 at -36.60 C. I wonder if we will set a new record low record in the near future.
Quick, hide the decline!
As expected. System mode toggle into cooling. Hysteresis of positive feedbacks overcome. Less UV gets into the oceans; oceans cool the atmosphere.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hysteresis_sharp_curve.svg
(imagine in=solar; out=temps. You know where we are)
My bad. For budgetary reasons, I’ve been leaving the Jeep parked except for monthly bean & rice runs to grocery store. You’d think the additional methane would have compensated for my reduced CO2 emissions
Isn’t the temperature range from high to low on the right meaning its hotter?
Ignore me my eyes aint what they used to be, didn’t see the minus sign 🙁
It’s definitely worse than we thought…
Here are 2 indisputable scientific equations:
CO2 = 🙂
AGW = BS
OT, but this is interesting. Should also apply to climate models. Why am I not surprised? Murray
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=finance-why-economic-models-are-always-wrong#comments
Remember – huge snows in October here in New England and declining global temperatures MEAN NOTHING! It’s ONLY if the surface temperatures are warmer than normal that weather is closely correlated to climate change. Everything else is meaningless!
/cagw
Dr. Roy, BEST, HadCrut, Giss, Riss all show no warming or cooling over the past decade.
What is causing UAH to show a slight warming?
thanks
http://suyts.wordpress.com/2011/10/29/the-mischaracterization-of-skepticism-and-the-misapplication-of-the-skeptic-label/
Chris says:
October 30, 2011 at 9:44 am
Quick, hide the decline!
Why do you think that AMSR-E has “failed”?
/paranoia off
sharper00, I just left Roy Spencer the following comment at his blog:
Roy: You wrote in the post, “The mid-tropospheric AMSU channels are showing even cooler temperatures than we had at this date with the last (2008) La Nina.”
2011/12 is shaping up to be the second of a pair of back-to-back La Nina events, meaning 2010/11 was also a La Nina winter. So 2007/08 was not the last La Nina.
Or are you discussing the autumns after La Nina events, because La Nina conditions did not exist in October 2008? You need to clarify.
Cheynne Sayers,
Those are negative ‘y’ temperatures. Temperature increases upward, not downward.
@latitude, troposphere seems to react to El Ninos more strongly than the surface record. So if you get a pronounced El Nino at the end of decade record, it will shift the decade trend up.
DocMartyn says:
October 30, 2011 at 9:39 am
I am sure I read somewhere that a warming Troposphere was the fingerprint of CO2 driven cAGW.
Just how often does a hypothesis have to fail to match reality before it is junked?
____________________
Until the politicians have gotten all the taxes and regulations they want. After that it does not matter if the truth surfaces. The regs and Taxes will stay.
Can someone help me out. What weather effects does the troposphere temperate have? How does the troposphere temperature relate to the weather on the ground? For example, when the troposphere is warmer, is the weather in general stormier or calmer?
Another question, why does the troposphere temperature parallel the northern hemisphere season?
Thanks.
well… UK better be prepared for one cold winter
if the cool remains in the Atlantic the western US is going to get pummeled this year.. shaping up to be a very wet and cold winter…
Almost every channel is lower than last year, or even.
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