Open Thread Holiday Weekend

Since this is a holiday weekend, and after the bombshell Spencer and Braswell revelation today, there’s not much else besides watching tropical storm Lee and Hurricane Katia this weekend.

I have several things to do in the home improvement realm that have been neglected while I work on WUWT and other projects, and I need to step away for a bit. I may update WUWT if something happens related to tropical weather, and guest authors are welcome to post. But I don’t plan to spend much time online this weekend.

Have a nice holiday weekend, see you all back here Tuesday.

About these ads

64 thoughts on “Open Thread Holiday Weekend

  1. Interesting discussion on the matter of Willis E’s question: “Was Irene, in fact, a hurricane?”

    Two points to consider, one of which was made in the discussion of Willis. Damage was largely rain-related, not wind-related (max windspeeds were below Hurricane threshholds). Somebody (PDR?)pointed out that some damage related to tree-fall could be due to the absence of major windstorms in the last 6 years or so. More large aging trees, more trees susceptible to storm damage.

    Here’s another angle. CO2 has been elevated (they all say) and CO2 promotes vegetation growth.

    How much extra leaf growth has occurred as a result of elevated atmospheric CO2 content? How has that exceptional leaf growth contributed to the wind-cross-section of trees?

    Just saying, but it seem reasonable that aging trees with lots of extra-large leaves might be susceptible to toppling in mediocre windstorms.

    And all of the power loss in the eastern states was due to trees falling on power llines. Hmmmmm

  2. Giant Chunk of Greenland Ice Set to Break Away

    http://www.ouramazingplanet.com/giant-chunk-of-greenland-ice-set-to-break-away-1960/

    “An ice shelf is poised to break off from a Greenland glacier and float out to sea as an island twice the size of Manhattan, scientists say.

    “I don’t know exactly when,” Jason Box, a climatologist with Ohio State Unversity’s Byrd Polar Research Center, told OurAmazingPlanet. “I wouldn’t be surprised if it happened today — or if it happened next summer.”

    Just a year ago, in August 2010, the same glacier produced an even larger iceberg — a mass of ice four times the size of Manhattan, the largest in recorded Greenland history — yet researchers warn that the next spectacular break could have more-dire consequences.

    Box said it’s not clear when the 62-square-mile (160 square kilometers) ice shelf, which is dangling from Greenland’s Petermann Glacier, will detach from the mainland. “I think it’s more likely to occur during periods of melt, and that’s coming to an end, so I’m losing confidence it’s going to break this year,” Box said.”

  3. I have posted to YouTube the video of the recent Australian debate on the question “Do We Really Need a Carbon Tax?”

    My own take is that the side in favor didn’t really engage the issues. Ian Plimer is the only panelist who really addressed scientific issues, and was (as I would expect) dismissed out of hand with no substantive response by the opponent who followed. Lord Lawson did a respectable job on the negative side, although I thought he blundered early on by saying that anyone who believes CO2 is “pollution” should not be listened to. In some idealistic sense this could be true, but the assertion does seem to negate the possibility of dialogue or debate in the first place.

    In any case, I thought it was a worthwhile debate. I was rather disgusted by the description given on the ABC _Big Ideas_ web page, which among other outrages called Plimer a “climate-denying geologist.” Here’s their description:

    Do We Really Need a Carbon Tax?
    23 Aug 2011, 11:00

    Claiming that places like the ABC were not giving equal time to those who dissent from the prevailing science around the climate change debate, the conservative think tank The Institute of Public Affairs decided to host their own event in partnership with The Spectator Australia. The question they posed was straightforward and simple: “Do we really need a Carbon Tax?”

    The local participants included a climate change researcher, a climate-denying geologist, plus former party leaders of both Liberal and a Labor. But, the star of the show was a British Lord – not Monckton, but former Thatcher-era Energy Minister, Nigel Lawson – who happens to be a real member of the House of Lords. (He is also father of celebrity cook, Nigela Lawson.)

    Lord Lawson has spent the past decade warning of the perils of decarbonising the economy, arguing that government policies to replace relatively cheap carbon-based energy with substantially more expensive renewable energy amount to economic illiteracy of the worst order.

    Chairing the debate was conservative commentator Tom Switzer.

    Speakers For:

    John Hewson is the former leader of the Liberal Party and an economic and financial expert with experience in academia, business, government and the financial system. His current position is chairman of insurance broking firm General Security Australia.

    Benjamin McNeil is a senior fellow at the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales.

    Mark Latham is a Spectator Australia columnist and former federal Labor leader.

    Speakers Against:

    Lord Nigel Lawson is a former Thatcher-era Energy Minister and British Conservative chancellor. He is author of “An Appeal to Reason: A Cool Look at Global Warming”.

    Ian Plimer is a geologist at University of Adelaide and author of “Heaven & Earth”.

    Gary Johns is associate professor at the Australian Catholic University and former federal Labor minister.

    Chair:

    Tom Switzer is a research associate at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney where he teaches undergraduate courses in American politics and Australian history. He is also editor of The Spectator Australia, published in London.

    http://www.abc.net.au/tv/bigideas/stories/2011/08/23/3299165.htm

  4. Happy Father’s Day to all fathers celebrating tomorrow (Sunday 4th).

    Applicable in Australia, don’t know if anywhere else though.

  5. Jim Cole says:September 2, 2011 at 5:32 pm
    Just saying, but it seem reasonable that aging trees with lots of extra-large leaves might be susceptible to toppling in mediocre windstorms.

    In my area, I think the fact that the utility company (PSNH) mostly stopped doing right-of-way tree maintenance several years ago is more significant. Since the PUC won’t penalize them for outages, it’s cheaper for them to skip expensive maintenance.

  6. What about the Justice Department raids on guitar maker Gibson? I love the tone of a Gibson Thunderbird. Law was amended right before Obama comes into office…. DOJ has raided Gibson twice…. And they won’t tell Gibson what it is they are doing wrong!! We’ve got this administration criminalizing business and these kindergarten children are scratching heads wondering why $2 Trillion is sitting on the sidelines… Not counting the trillions pulled out of the market after Obama was nominated… and unemployment stays at 9%.

  7. “It is easier to find a score of men wise enough to discover the truth than to find one intrepid enough, in the face of opposition, to stand up for it.”
    —A. Hodge

  8. Dear Watts Up With That people,
    I would like to invite everyone to contribute to the ‘list’ I am about to initiate.
    It is a list of CLIMATIC OBSERVATIONS .
    In my reading I have come across many statements about and descriptions of Significant Climatic Events. I have found these in jouranls, autobiographies, diaries, letters and official communications. Taken in isolation they are merely interesting bits of historical detail but…with the aid of a bit of geographical software, several hundred or better still, several thousand of these be used to create a useful picture of climate variation. The period that interests me is from the end of the dark ages to the end of the 19th Century. (After that period newspapers and media provide sufficient information.)
    The rules are simple.
    1. Significant events only. Cold, warm, snow, heatwaves, droughts, floods and storms.
    2. Identified author, date and location.
    3. Publisher.

    Example.
    Fredreich Nietzsche. Basle, Switzerland, february 1874.
    “We are having such fine warm days with plenty of sunshine and even deep coloured sunsets already.. *We have only had one day’s snow the whole winter*.
    Published by The Soho Book Company.

    Think of what we could do with several thousand of these!
    Obviously there are limitations, vast areas of the world will not be covered but I’d be damned surprised if we couldn’t come up with a fairly comprehensive picture of European Weather over that period. Better than tree rings anyway.
    I thank you for your interest.

  9. The Solar Wind bz has tilted primarily north, and the gcr’s are once again climbing back up.
    The SORCE spacecraft is showing some mighty strange readings. So much so, that the data and instrument are scheduled for a hard look Sept. 26. Maybe it got whacked out there, and the thing has gone haywire. Send up the replacement.

  10. charles nelson says:
    September 2, 2011 at 11:43 pm …

    Charles, you did not direct us to a website or a place where contributions could be submitted.

  11. Dear Roy,
    Not being internet savvy(me I mean) what do you think would be the best way to do this?
    I hear what you’re saying though!
    Thanks.

  12. It is Labour Day on Monday in the US (English spelling) and the way Obama is going there will soon be no labour working to celebrate the holiday. (Apart from EPA employees)

  13. I have some good news. I’m pretty sure that I’ve solved the whole global warming thing.

    I’ve been looking at a few hockey stick graphs recently, and I noticed something about them. The point where the handle of the stick joins the blade is about at the time that the thermometer record begins.

    In other words, temperatures started shooting up when we began sticking thermometers all over the place. Don’t you get it? It’s the thermometers! They’re causing the warming! I’m pretty sure that if we destroy all the thermometers, this global warming thing will just go away.

  14. Some interesting thoughts from Martin Durkin.
    THE REAL GLOBAL WARMING CONSENSUS (or ‘Why Intellectuals Hate Capitalism’)

    The market is based on merit. Success is determined by how highly people value what you have to sell. The intellectuals, whose talents are not highly valued, yearn for a society based on status. This is why the Green intelligentsia fetishise hierarchical pre-capitalist society. This kind of society, they assert, was more ‘natural’ and ‘ordered’ and ‘harmonious’.

    Today, the bulk of intellectuals in the ‘New Class’ work directly or indirectly for the State. They are paid out of taxes levied on the productive economy. In other words, the plumbers (and bricklayers and lorry drivers and estate agents) are forced to pay for them. No wonder the plumbers do not turn up at Green demonstrations to demand higher taxes and more state control.

  15. Ed Mertin [September 2, 2011 at 9:27 pm] says:

    “What about the Justice Department raids on guitar maker Gibson?”

    Pretty amazing isn’t it? Obama and his Department of InJustice is trying to kill another American company. They are doing this under the guise of some obscure Indian ‘law’ (which even India care less about) concerning use of certain wood *after* they sell and export it overseas to companies like Gibson and Martin (and …)!

    Remember who was the big bad boogeyman during the last administration? Yes, Ashcroft, who was busy gunning for terrorists, not guitar makers. Well, we can’t have any of that, can we? No, we need hope and change. We need Eric Holder, the worst Attorney General ever, who sees nothing wrong with Black Panther intimidation at polling stations and who thinks American companies are corrupt and illegal. Congratulations to any dummies here who fell for this idiocy and voted for President Dumbo. You got real change, the systematic destruction of your own country. Thanks, geniuses.

    Anyway, lots of discussion threads at FreeRepublic with links to original source articles …

    Federal agents search Gibson Guitar factory in Memphis

    Feds Raid Gibson Guitar

    Eco-zealous feds target Gibson guitars, antique piano sellers; Updated: Gibson explains

    Gibson Guitar Corp. Responds to Federal Raid (Claims DOJ wants wood finished in India)

    CEO of Gibson Guitar a Republican donor; Democrat competitor uses same wood

    Gibson Competitor is Dem Donor;Uses Same Wood, ExperiencedNo Federal Raids

    Gibson Guitar CEO: We’re Under Attack By Obama Administration

    If Gibson Is Not Safe, Nobody Is

    Gibson Guitar Corp. Responds to Federal Raid

    Dana with Gibson CEO – Henry Juszkiewicz (Audio)

    Michelle Obama Gives French First Lady a Gibson Guitar (flashback to 2009)

    DOJ Advises Gibson Guitar to Export Labor to Madagascar

    Gibson CEO: Obama Administration Told Us Our Problems Would Go Away If We Used Madagascar Labor…..

    Gibson CEO: Feds Demanded Foreign Labor

    DOJ Advises Gibson Guitar to Export Labor to Madagascar

    Why Are The Feds Gunning For Gibson? And Is This Any Way To Stimulate The Economy?

    Gibson Guitars Strung Up by Feds

    Gibson: Feds Want Guitar Woodwork Done by Foreign Labor

  16. It has been a fascinating few weeks watching the ups and downs of the Arctic ice.

    I confess I’ve been doing this while watching the ups of the English Cricket team and the downs of the Indian one, but all of that might change starting this weekend with the one day matches.

    From the NOAA drifting North Pole camera it would seem that the new freeze season has set in. The melt ponds seem to be freezing over:

    And the temperatures recorded by the Polar Area Weather Station ( PAWS ) Buoy
    Buoy ID 420120 seem to be consistently negative now:

    http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/PAWS_atmos_recent.html

    Looking at Dr Ryan Maue’s 2 metre temperature animations also hints at a start to the freeze up:

    http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/temperature/gfs/arc_t2m.html

    It will be interesting to see how this will all be spun over the next few weeks. An obvious death spiral has not happened, that is a fact. We might see, by a small amount, a new low in ice extent, though that will be touch and go over the next few weeks. A lot of slush type ice (shuga and grease ice) has been reported this year; it will be interesting to see if this accelerates ice growth in the new season.

    As I’ve had time to follow the Arctic ice this summer, it has been a revelation to me, just how much the extent is weather driven. It has got me wondering just how much of the Arctic ice is really dependent on the climate and how much is at the mercy of unpredictable weather events?

    As for Arctic ice volume, well that’s for the modellers to argue over.

    Odd how no one from the AGW crowd seems to be able to explain why the Antarctic ice is not melting away, or is the physics too difficult and the data not matching the models?

  17. Blade responds to: (September 3, 2011 at 4:28 am) “What about the Justice Department raids on guitar maker Gibson?”

    But that’s not the America, Land of the Free, you’re talking about, Blade?

  18. I would like to contribute the work of a person that I never forgot . . . Even though he called himself an Astrology, he based his work on Astronomy and indirectly physics . . . He was one of the first cyclical theorist that I ever came across in the flesh . . .

    I would like to contribute his paper on procession . . . and how he explains it in “pictures” so that there is a complete different perspective . . .

    “from the big picture perspective” so to speak. . .

    I throw it out there, for both the open minded and the skeptics alike . . . but, I believe, he was a man far ahead of the “curves”!

    Here are two links . . . I would attribute to him . . .

    Simplified Astronomy for Astrologers

    http://lovestarz.com/astronomy.html

    Astronomical Cycles

    http://www.thefuture.com.au/acyc.htm

    And others . . .

    http://www.thefuture.com.au/cycref.htm

    I hope you find it worth discussing . . . and I would look forward to know what other think about it . . .

  19. Charles Nelson that sounds like a fantastic idea. I don’t know what you’re thinking of but I’m imagining a public database that lets users submit and edit weather events, rate them for severity, provide links to resources, etc. I’d be willing to buy a domain and host such a site, although I have a lot of hobbies that take up my limited spare time.. If there are any other PHP/MySQL type people on here that would like to collaborate please e-mail me joshedlund [at] gmail [dot] com….

  20. James Evans says:
    September 3, 2011 at 3:06 am
    “In other words, temperatures started shooting up when we began sticking thermometers all over the place. Don’t you get it? It’s the thermometers! They’re causing the warming! I’m pretty sure that if we destroy all the thermometers, this global warming thing will just go away.”

    Is that a lame attempt at deriding skepticism? Well, in case you don’t know, GISTEMP made a huge jump in the nineties by getting rid of about 4,500 thermometers; they deleted the cooler ones.

    Also, in Europe there are temperature stations reporting for 200 years and more so I must call your hypothesis debunked.

  21. @Smokey

    Very good (and funny) but I think “Private Jet,” “My”, and “Wealthy” should have been in there. Oh… and where’s “Bush?”

  22. DirkH says:
    “Is that a lame attempt at deriding skepticism?”

    No. Actually it’s a lame attempt at deriding the consensus. You don’t find it odd that, according to the consensus position, temperatures started to go up just as we started to measure them?

    Take a look at the hockey stick graphs – there are a few on Wikipedia.

  23. It’s the Sun!

    August 2011 in the UK

    Only 76% of average sunshine. AverageUK maximum temperatures were 0.8C below normal.

  24. James Evans says:
    September 3, 2011 at 1:02 pm
    “DirkH says:
    “Is that a lame attempt at deriding skepticism?”

    No. Actually it’s a lame attempt at deriding the consensus. You don’t find it odd that, according to the consensus position, temperatures started to go up just as we started to measure them?”

    My apologies. But as I said, that’s not true. Here’s 300 years of temperature records from Berlin.

    http://notrickszone.com/2010/09/23/own-weather-records-contradict-germanys-weather-service-director/

    We are now where we were in 1800. (for this particular station)

  25. Since this is an open thread, I thought I’d get my two cents worth in about those of you who talk about the “Thought Police” – referring to that great novel 1984. I’ve got news, the thought police are alive and living among us, and it’s not the AGW crowd.

    Think the story was in the WSJ a couple of weeks ago. It told of a business man who, for a fee, will research web postings of individuals…people who are applying for a job. Seems employers want to know about any postings that you and I, as prospective employees of a company, make on the internet. Of course, to remove a person from consideration based on web postings would, seems to me violate the First Amendment, but I’m sure there are a couple thousand reasons for not getting a job, and of course the web search had nothing to do with it.

    It used to be that what an employee does on their own time, with the exception of criminal activity, was off limits to employers. Not any more. Your comments on this site are fair game for an employer, and a visit to a site like this could cost you future employment.

    Posting on company time – sure I get that…unless that’s part of your job description. But this, this goes beyond that so far that it makes me ill. I just thought you’d all want to know

    PS – INTHEDEN is owned by me, so I’m posting with the bosses permission…

    Mike

  26. Joshua Science says:
    September 3, 2011 at 8:56 am

    Charles Nelson that sounds like a fantastic idea. I don’t know what you’re thinking of but I’m imagining a public database that lets users submit and edit weather events, rate them for severity, provide links to resources, etc. I’d be willing to buy a domain and host such a site, although I have a lot of hobbies that take up my limited spare time.. If there are any other PHP/MySQL type people on here that would like to collaborate please e-mail me joshedlund [at] gmail [dot] com….

    My site, whatcatastrophe.com (click my name above), was originally setup for something similar, but no one found it useful. I still have it up as sort of a blog. But I created a Data Repository section where people could upload graphics, pdfs, text files, whatever, and describe them. It also allows for a copyright notice to identify the source of the information. I can make modifications as needed, within the restrictions of the framework I use. If interested, head on over and register. There is a forum where you can start a thread about this, if you wish.

  27. Dear, RoyUK, Steve C,Josh, and Jeff Alberts, thank you for your interest and links and invites.
    I consider you honorary founding members!
    The Chronological listing of early weather events PDF is fascinating and scary at the same time…people didn’t have it easy back in the olden days.
    I suppose the simplest way to progress it to tell you what I envisage and it would be as suggested an open forum website arranged alphabetically; with an up front ‘index’ to help people log data correctly.
    To test it’s usefulness I think it might be interesting to limit/filter the type of data we collect in order to create a picture of maximum stability. In other words events of some duration, the shortest being a Season. The values being limited to hot, cold, wet, windy, snowfall/hail, fog.
    So, only statements which clearly speak of: a ‘winter of terrible fogs’, or the ‘year of the great wind’ ‘the summer the sun seemed weak’, the great drought etc etc.

    As a glance at the chronological listing will show, there are thousands of castastrophic individual weather events, hail, floods, tornadoes hurricanes etc etc are so tied to their localities as to merit a separate Study. ‘I think their inclusion would ‘blur the image’ but that’s only my opinion.

    If our humble first attempt was to produce say an animated map of an area like the US or Europe showing the successive pulses of cooling and warming I would be delighted.
    Other filters might produce rain wind fog or snowfall variations as detailed above.

    As for how ‘scientific’ all this is I’m sure some will say its not. That anecdote is not data.
    I would argue that these comments having been made formally, in writing, by educated people with ‘no axe to grind’ (ie neither warmist nor denier) constitute as sound a basis for understanding and vizualizing climate shift as any other proxy.
    Once again thanks. Start gathering data, ask booky, literate friends…
    I’ll be in touch…bookmark this page I’ll post the website details here in the next week.
    Chas.

  28. Smokey, I particularly enjoyed you “Click 22”, but all were smile provoking.

    However, in a previous ‘Open Thread‘, you showed an unrealistic road-sign concerning a Northern Hemisphere view of Australia and I was not at all amused.
    Below find something that is more real and genuinely amusing in Oz road signs, in a Melbourne suburb near to me:

    http://www.autoblog.com/2008/05/06/mystery-joker-installing-funny-road-signs/

    I particularly like the “Hump” one, although the authorities and PC profundities are clearly not in support.

  29. @Mike Bentley says:
    September 3, 2011 at 6:39 pm
    (Mike discusses possible negative consequences of posting opinions your employer might not like.)

    I nipped that problem in the bud.

    H.R. ;o)

  30. Since this is an open thread, I thought I’d propose some ideas.

    We know that general upward/downward air movement causes compression (warming) & expansion (cooling), respectively. This cannot produce any net atmospheric warming since the volume of atmosphere is fixed — any downward movement must be accompanied by equal upward movement somewhere.

    OK. But look at this more closely. Where exactly are these actions occuring? As air moves downward, it is compressed & the final state is reached at the surface. The “heat” of this compression ends up at the surface. Chinook winds on the lee side of the Rockies is a good example.

    Now, an equal amount of air must rise to counteract this. Air rises, expands & cools. But the cooled air is now up in the atmosphere, away from the surface. It doesn’t cool the surface unless rain/rain-cooled air falls out of the rising air which doesn’t happen everywhere where the rising air is (and doesn’t occur at all on Venus).

    This brings up my question — does the bulk action of upward/downward air movement actually warm the surface, but cool the higher atmospheric levels? Note: there is no net heating here.

    This might help explain to some extent why Venus is so hot (assuming there is sufficient upward/downward air movement). The potential compression (& heating) of downward moving air on Venus is huge — from the thin upper atmosphere to the deep, high-pressure surface. This seems to me that it might produce high surface temps (& matching, cooler upper-air temps) w/o invoking GHG effects.

    Feel free to pick to pieces.

  31. Charles Nelson, you might want to include a link to the new Climate History Network blog. It includes bibliographies of academic journal articles and popular articles relating to historical climate events, climate history research and such like. It began with some members of the H-Environment discussion group and “it just growed” as they say around here. http://www.climatehistorynetwork.com

  32. Charles Nelson et al

    I would be happy to consider some involvement in the project you have outlined but would urge you all not to spend too much time reinventing the wheel.

    There are several chronological data bases of weather events around, and many books by such as Hubert Lamb (first Director of CRU)

    My own web site is devoted to historic instrumental records from 1660 and this is combined with other observations in an attempt to build up a multi layered sequence of information for specific locations.(link to my site below)

    http://climatereason.com/LittleIceAgeThermometers/

    If you scroll down my site you will see a number of articles I have written which utilise the information collected..

    My colleague maintains this site;

    http://www.climateapplications.com/

    In it are instrumental records designed to do just what is suggested above-illustrate graphically periods of warming and cooling.

    Can I respectfully suggest it would be worth exchanging emails privately between all those interested so the purpose and precise terms of reference of any new resource are fully considered before any further effort is expended.

    My email is tonyATclimatereason.com (I am in the UK)

    Look forward to hearing from you all

    Tonyb

  33. The politics of climate change like all politics ends up in mud slinging and demagoguery. The two camps on AGW were formed by the heavy handed control of climate research publications by one side. They have had a “good thing going” and are worried that the “well is going dry” for climate research dollars. Unfortunately, for them selves, they have built a “house of cards” based on unsound science. As more and more climate data are evaluated and other research like CERN emerge, the cards start to tremble. More and more doubt will present its self and people will begin to see through the preposterous anecdotal claims made by the AGW proponents like that hurricanes are worse now than ever because of climate change. We can not undo the personal attacks on Dr. Spencer’s or any other climate scientist’s integrity. They speak volumes about the source of the attack. However, no matter how much we disagree with climate scientists who are the source of these attacks, we should fall into the trap of getting into a mud slinging battle. It would be my hope that the authors of blurbs in WUWT would hold their rants of frustration and emotional egotistical venom for other BLOGS. I would prefer to take the high road and let the truth be known without insidious comments about the opposition’s parental marital status.

  34. Thanks Blade, interesting stuff, I will look it over if I ever find the time…

    The SEC is going through the high yield REITS looking for stuff. Instead of shutting down pump & fullers like Martha Stewart. MLP’s maybe next… they are really something.

  35. A serious question, if anyone is still reading this thread.

    Doesn’t Arctic ice act as an insulator, and limit the amount of heat radiated to space from the Arctic Ocean? As the ice extent has reduced in the past 11 years or so, the minimum extent occurs well after the period of maximum sunlight. Therefore, many more hours are spent radiating heat rather than absorbing sunlight from or to the ice-free ocean. The albedo effect is likely much, much less than the radiative effect.

    Could this explain (at least in part) why the oceans are cooling and sea level is not rising?

    Finally, is there any scientific study into the radiative effect (that is, cooling) of the ice-free areas of the Arctic?

    Thanks in advance.

Comments are closed.