We’ve known this for quite some time, but I wanted to offer my congratulations to Dr. Maue. I’m thankful that you are a WUWT contributor. – Anthony
AGU journal highlights — Aug. 18
The following highlights summarize research papers that have been recently published in Geophysical Research Letters (GRL), Journal of Geophysical Research-Earth Surface (JGR-F), Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences (JGR-G), and Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans (JGR-C).
…
2. Global cyclone activity historically low
A new research study shows that overall global tropical cyclone activity has decreased to historically low levels during the past 5 years.
Maue analyzes global tropical cyclone data from 1970 through May 2011 to examine the considerable interannual variability of the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) metric. Since 2006, global and Northern Hemisphere ACE have decreased significantly, reaching the lowest levels since the late 1970s. Also, during 2010-2011, the overall global frequency of tropical cyclones reached a historical low. The researcher demonstrates that much of the variability in tropical cyclone energy during the past 40 years is clearly associated with natural large-scale climate oscillations such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
Source:
Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2011GL047711, 2011
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047711
Title: Recent historically low global tropical cyclone activity
Author: Ryan N. Maue: Center for Ocean and Atmosphere Studies, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, USA;
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How can the AGW crowd continue to say with a straight face that hurricanes and tornadoes are getting worse and more frequent and that sea level rise is accelerating? It boggles the mind.
RE: Robert Wille
If Maue had
made upproxy data to go back 2000 years and had properlymassagedprocessed the data, then his graph would be a hockey stick.Robert Wille says: “How can the AGW crowd continue to say with a straight face that hurricanes and tornadoes are getting worse and more frequent and that sea level rise is accelerating? It boggles the mind.”
Those who say that may have:
(1) no sense of humor, and thus no other expression
(2) much experience in lying
(3) steadfastly maintained their ignorance by visiting only RealClimate
(4) a holier-than-thou attitude that gives them gravitas
(5) adopted the traditional mien for religionists
(6) been paid to do so
(7) a desire to stay employed and get published
(8) cognitive dissonance
(9) constipation
(10) proctocraniosis.
I like Dr. Maue’s contributions too, Anthony. I wouldn’t have found him if it hadn’t been for WUWT. I think the ACE is aces.
A-a-a-a-nd… we are approaching the “busy season” for Ryan. It will be interesting to see what happens this year.
Robert Wille says:
August 19, 2011 at 10:54 am
You’re right, Mr. Wille. The CAGW crowd has never bothered with reality (like in “data”)–they’re perfectly happy running numerous models on big, expensive computers (it gives their answers more weight) using algorithms that are geared to their fantasy world view. And if their actions didn’t cost the taxpayer and mess with the economy and everybody’s activities of daily living, I’d have no problem with it; let them play on their holodeck forever if they want. But their actions are picked up, even encouraged, by governmental bodies that impact my freedoms, your freedoms, and the world’s economy.
Congratulations Dr Maue – always enjoy your posts, so it’s good to see some recognition and perhaps further evidence of a turning of the tide in the public discourse.
After I’d stuck my neck out and said that the Caribbean disturbance a copule days ago would become the first hurricane of the season, I might have to wind my neck back in. The centre of Harvey’s going to just miss Honduras, but it’s been a bit slow getting going (partly due to the proximity to land). I won’t yet say that it definitely won’t make it to hurricane status, but it would take some pretty rapid intensification to do so before reaching Belize, and there’s no way it could make it through to the Gulf in one piece to try again on that side of the Yucutan.
Looks like that recent record of most tropical depressions in the season before a hurricane is formed is there for the taking.
Please also visit Kate Spinner at the Herald Tribune: she is an excellent reporter on hurricane matters, as she should be down in South Florida.
Pacific may hold key to Atlantic hurricanes
“Robert Wille says:
August 19, 2011 at 10:54 am
How can the AGW crowd continue to say with a straight face that hurricanes and tornadoes are getting worse and more frequent and that sea level rise is accelerating? It boggles the mind.”
Don’t forget that some people have too much at stake to ever let go. As for others, well, most people fins it hard to admit they are wrong even over the most trivial of things. If people like Dr Maue and WUWT keep plugging away and if the predictions of extreme AGW diehards keep failing then sooner or later enough people will see the obvious and those that refuse to it will become totally irrelevant.
“Robert Wille says:
August 19, 2011 at 10:54 am
How can the AGW crowd continue to say with a straight face that hurricanes and tornadoes are getting worse and more frequent and that sea level rise is accelerating? It boggles the mind.”
Don’t forget that some people have too much at stake to ever let go. As for others, well, most people find it hard to admit they are wrong even over the most trivial of things. If people like Dr Maue and WUWT keep plugging away and if the predictions of extreme AGW diehards keep failing then, sooner or later, enough people will see the obvious. Those that refuse to see it will become totally irrelevant.
[ryanm: Dave, my paper does not discuss AGW with respect to global hurricane activity. The AGW crowd take advantage of scientifically illiterate ideologues in the left-wing media to push their crap.]
Hurricanes, cyclones, typhoons (call them what you will) should have increased in frequency and severity, directly proportionally to the rise in CO2 in the atmosphere. This extra CO2 results in an increase in temperature of the seas/oceans surfaces, where these storms originate More heat=more energy= more high energy weather events. This is not only not happening, but the opposite is.
Am I missing something?
[ryanm: the Earth has not warmed that much to see changes in global cyclone activity, yet. Maybe in 30 or 40 years in the future.]
“The researcher demonstrates that much of the variability in tropical cyclone energy during the past 40 years is clearly associated with natural large-scale climate oscillations such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.”
Or
CO2 preferentially warms the high latitudes, so less driving force for meridional circulation and less vorticity in the tropical atmosphere. Could be either or both.
Andrew Harding, actually cold air and warm water cause storms (well simplified). So actually for a time when we are having relatively warm temperatures and warmish water, we should have less activity. Well that is what real weather textbooks say, anyway. I guess AGW is somehow supposed to erase that. If the AGWers were smart they’d point to low activity as proof of warming, but that doesn’t sell in alarmism does it?
Numerous somethings, among which is that weather results from atmospheric heat flux, which reduces as the temperature contrast between poles and tropics decreases (= global warming). Cooling => violent weather. Warming => placid weather.
Ryan;
Let Kate know; it reads kinda weird! Like two alternate edits of the same material pasted together. Did someone do an “append” instead of “replace”?
[ryanm: yeah, a simple link and reposting of this previous post here at WUWT would have done fine: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/26/global-hurricane-activity-at-historical-record-lows-new-paper/ ]
Away with those new-fangled elliptical orbits!
Double down on the epicycles!
Our horoscopes are the most skillful of all!
We’ve programmed a CO2 Doomsday
into our (Government-funded) computers,
therefore the Government must grow.
If you don’t agree then shut up, you vile denier.
Well, Robert… Just look at this past Tornado season.
Sorry, can’t read the legends of the graphs. They’re even worse than those in the Solar Reference Pages.
Brian, one season does not make a trend. The claim is that it’s getting increasingly worse. You can’t claim a trend because one season was bad, even if that one season was really bad.
As Mr. Watts says, we’ve known this for quite some time. Nevertheless, this new publication is sure to have Gore foaming at the mouth (again). Poor man. After billions of dollars in donations and government grants propping up his and the IPCC’s international propaganda campaign, and still all it takes is mere observational evidence to render all of that worthless.
Ryan Maue says:
August 19, 2011 at 11:47 am
Please also visit Kate Spinner at the Herald Tribune: she is an excellent reporter on hurricane matters, as she should be down in South Florida.
==============================================
Ryan, to clear things up, explain the difference between cyclone, typhoon, hurricane, tropical depression, tropical storm, etc and that the word cyclone can mean something entirely different depending on where you are……
When you say cyclone, I’m not even clear if you are talking about a low (turning squall line), a hurricane, tropical storm or what?
For me, if you said there’s a cyclone, I would think you’re talking about nothing more than a squall line that turning around……………………
I think that this last tornado season was more characterized by WHERE the tornados hit than how many there were. An F3 in the middle of a field gets maybe a 5 sec sound bit while that same tornado in the middle of a city is worth months of news coverage.
Brian says:
August 19, 2011 at 12:46 pm
Well, Robert… Just look at this past Tornado season.
===============
The ability that current technology gives us to identify tornado paths/damage, should not lead to the conclusion there are more tornadoes, any more than the increasing detection of asteroids should lead us to assume asteroids are increasing in frequency.
Although they might be.
Congrats Ryan.
Well done Ryan. Good boy.
Congratulations Dr Maue on your paper.
Even if I am a little late sayong so.
I have also enjoyed your posts at WUWT.
John
Latitude says,’clear things up’.
Didn’t see Ryan respond, I hope that no one minds I do.
Wiki says:
In the link provided by Ryan to his paper in AGU, he stresses 3 points: