Tropical Storm Don — disintegrates on landfall

NCEP NAM/WRF 4-km rainfall forecast (next 60-hours)

For those in SE Texas hoping for some drough relief from Tropical Storm Don, so far early Saturday morning after landfall, a trace or scant rainfall is to be found.  Don’s convection has distintigrated with only a weak-low level swirl evident on radar.  Hopefully as daytime heating occurs on Saturday and Sunday, a thunderstorm can pop up.

The NCEP 4-km NAM/WRF simulated radar forecast shows the circulation progressing across Texas Rio Grande during the next 24-36 hours before merging with the North American monsoon. However, rainfall forecast for the next 2.5 days shows a lot of white nothing across most of the drought-stricken state.

TS Don on satellite:

http://weatherbell.intelliweather.net/imagery/WeatherBell/sat_atlhurr_fullview_640x480.jpg

Animate it here

Tracks shown below:

[Image of probabilities of tropical storm force winds]
Click Here for a Printer Friendly Graphic

WTNT34 KNHC 282033
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DON ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042011
400 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

...DON MOVING BRISKLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 91.3W
ABOUT 425 MI...690 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM E OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST. DON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H.  A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DON
SHOULD APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY NIGHT OE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AFTER THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES.

RAINFALL...DON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST WESTWARD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
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45 thoughts on “Tropical Storm Don — disintegrates on landfall

  1. Yeah … a little tinkle over the heart of Texas.

    Now if only there were a few more weak tropical storms headed their way over the coming weeks … they sure need the gods above to tinkle on below them.

    Now, about the page layout here…

  2. For those who like me find the bulletin text displayed in an inch wide non wrapping window that is virtually impossible to read, here’s what it says.

    BULLETIN
    TROPICAL STORM DON ADVISORY NUMBER 5
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011
    400 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

    …DON MOVING BRISKLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
    STRENGTH…

    SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
    ———————————————-
    LOCATION…24.9N 91.3W
    ABOUT 425 MI…690 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
    ABOUT 395 MI…635 KM E OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    ——————–
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

    NONE.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
    * TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
    * TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
    STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
    FORECAST OFFICE.

    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ——————————
    AT 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS
    LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST. DON IS
    MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH…26 KM/H. A GENERAL
    NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE
    NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF DON
    SHOULD APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY…THEN MAKE
    LANDFALL ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY NIGHT OE EARLY SATURDAY
    MORNING.

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
    GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 36
    HOURS…FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AFTER THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES…140 KM
    FROM THE CENTER.

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB…29.68 INCHES.

    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ———————-
    WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
    AREA BY LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

    STORM SURGE…A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
    1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL…MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
    NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR
    THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
    WAVES.

    RAINFALL…DON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
    3 TO 5 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST WESTWARD INTO SOUTH
    CENTRAL TEXAS…WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES.

    NEXT ADVISORY
    ———–

  3. Yet another bit of evidence that hurricanes are getting stronger, and more frequent. And just in case you don’t think that 40mph is terrifying, go outside and try to throw a loaf of bread* at 40mph. That’s right: Katrina II is coming for you.

    *QED

  4. I sure hope the folks up around Amarillo get some rain. That place was looking pretty bad when we went through a few weeks ago. Some of the cattle on the range looked like skin and bone.

  5. Stark: Yeah global warming has made 40 mph a lot faster than it was as recently as the 1970s if this increase in the speed of 40 mph continue unabated then by the year 2100 40 mph will be really fast.

  6. They called it a cyclone……….
    …..because cyclone sounds so much scarier than squall line……………

    ( I know, technically they are correct, it’s all still BS anyway)

  7. crosspatch says:
    July 28, 2011 at 5:08 pm
    I sure hope the folks up around Amarillo get some rain. That place was looking pretty bad when we went through a few weeks ago. Some of the cattle on the range looked like skin and bone.

    And on the flipside here in southeast MN where I live I’ve recorded over 10″ in the past 22 days! Lush as can be. Weather can be so queer that way (/snide)

  8. Oh puhleease…!!!!

    Due to the lack of hurricanes, we are now tracking tropical (gasp) storms!!!


  9. Tom T says:
    July 28, 2011 at 5:09 pm

    Stark: Yeah global warming has made 40 mph a lot faster than it was as recently as the 1970s if this increase in the speed of 40 mph continue unabated then by the year 2100 40 mph will be really fast.

    I believe it is call ‘inflation’. Weather and climate inflation is present all around us. Just look at the temperature record over time (after it has been corrected by UAE/CRU).

  10. It’s coming right at us! (Dives out window)

    And while I hope this storm brings some much needed rain to a parched Texas, I would only mention that while cattle there are dying from lack of water and vegetation, we up yonder in SW BC have had calves dying from overnight exposure to cold — in July! Maybe we could snag a whiff of that warm, dry weather and we’ll send some rain back in return?

  11. The latest recon has the central pressure dropping 10 millibars in the last couple of hours.

    Rapid intensification can be a result of relaxed shear, unstable (humid) air or increased ocean heat content. Whether or not Don makes it to a hurricane, any TC should be monitored as even Katrina was just a tropical storm and a cat 1 when it first crossed Florida before ramping up in the Gulf.

  12. Don K says July 28, 2011 at 4:23 pm

    For those who like me [who] find the bulletin text displayed in an inch wide non wrapping window that is virtually impossible to read

    Same here; layout issue with the main article mods … (running a Dell PC w/WinXp SP3 and NOT using: IE, FireFox or Chrome but rather Opera as the browser)

    .

  13. TrueNorthist says:
    July 28, 2011 at 6:50 pm

    It’s coming right at us! (Dives out window)

    Was that with or without a Wilhelm scream?

  14. I was hoping for the northern path, but alas the mid-level ridge. We truly need 2-3, some big ol’ wet, slow moving storms to end this bloody drought.

    Joe called it some months ago – Gulf Coast-centric storms, early on in the season if memory serves. It sure seems like its ending up as he called it…..

  15. John Marshall says:
    July 29, 2011 at 2:02 am

    “Rain to southern Texas, my friends there will be pleased.”

    Yes! I was going to comment that Don is GOOD! It’s bringing rain where it’s desperately needed in Texas.

  16. LearDog says:
    July 29, 2011 at 4:08 am

    ========================

    You may have to wait for the Jet Stream. Maybe it will split or take an outright southern course. All the signs are there for an early climatic Autumn so its really a matter of the placement of the Jet.

  17. Crosspatch, I live around Amarillo and we have a blazing 30% chance tonight and 30% chance tomorrow of something damp happening. Apparently a weak cold front has diverted Don into Mexico and none of the moisture is forecast to wrap up this far. Thpppppth! But at least someone will benefit. It is so dry some ranchers are spraying their catfish for ticks and I’ve seen bushes following the dogs around!

  18. This was predicted by Piers Corbyn of Weather Action.com.It’s worth a look at his site as he seems pretty good at long range weather forcasts based on solar winds etc.

    [Ryan Maue: that’s so unlikely, it’s laughable]

  19. Hello? Hello? Anyone down there? It sure would be nice if a fellow down by the Rio Grande delta would give us the news.

  20. Don just virtually collapsed as it moved inland. Low level circulation still evident south of Corpus but the deep convection has collapsed. Sorry Texas. I’m sure some re-generation of shwr/t-storm activity is in the offing around the low level center tomorrow during the heating of the day but widespread rains look unlikely now.

    [ryanmaue: updated post, thanks]

  21. So far, the only thing we’ve received from this storm was increased humidity. Great, now we’re hot and sticky…..

  22. Iwas working the area tonight and couldn’t believe my eyes, although no model was very robust with qpf after landfill.

  23. Hope this drought is not a primer for the years ahead. We have a long way to go in this windy solar cycle. Volcanic activity now is almost a déjà vu of the dust bowl ’30s. The years leading into and during the worst of it were erratic to the extremes from what I’ve found about what people described.
    But of course the next dust bowl is the fault of humankind, right?

  24. This is a case where the modeling just cannot account for the temporary Sahara effect, that pesky upper level anitcyclone which is doing all the dirty work in the great republic of Texas.

    It grieves me to see so much white on the GFS precipitation progs for Texas.

    Rest assured, Texans. The rains will come…even if it is down to the last man at the Alamo.

    The coolest thing is, they take it all in stride. You never hear them complaining…or asking for government handouts for drought relief.

    They just do what they do. Lesson to all of us.

    Maybe little Don’s fearless but fatal attempt at the ridge will give his bigger brothers and sisters a chance to destroy it.

    Here’s hoping for it! I wanna see some height-falls. Now. Mother Nature. Please….now.

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  25. Was pointing out on WeatherBell that this would die fast, much like storms that hit the middle east from the southeast do. In fact was making sure that readers knew this was no more than a “dust settler) for most of Texas. In retrospect, it was fighting so much dry air that it did well to even maintain itself. Another factor, the tstorms northeast of it in the Houston area, and the elongation of the convection was competing with the storm itself. I thought because it was small and coming in at the ideal angle for tightening to landfall ( 90 degrees) it could feedback enough to form a stronger core on Thursday, and was even thinking that was happening when pressures fell to 996, but this situation is one that means that with the maturation of the summer pattern similar to 54 and 55, where a couple of weaker storms showed up early in the western gulf ( 54 Alice late in June was a minimal hurricane, Brenda a tropical storm) or 99 when one renegade storm showed up and got strong ( Brett) the place to watch for more intense storms is further east. Emily to be I think will demonstrate that the atlantic between 60 west and the US coast , whether it can get back to the states or not, or the Caribbean east of 85 west, will be the place for the most intensity this year. While we cant close the gulf certainly it think the mean trough winds up over the eastern or central US. Looking at the blend of maps of August/Sep 1954/1955 and yes 2008 even though action did get further west, matches nicely the Euro seasonal forecast for pressures and precip in Aug-Oct.
    note: contrast this with Erin of 2007 which was still a formidable system at OKC or Dean of 1995 which was as strong pressure wise at Lubbock as it was Galveston, or Hermine last year with its strongest tropical storm winds on record in the last 40 years at San Antonio, and you can see where a pattern is saying look out, and where it is saying look away

  26. Its pathetic the way that even tropical storms and hurricanes fail to deliver to drought stricken Texas. I blame global warming AND the President.

  27. Things are bad in Texas, and Don turned out to be a major disappointment. We’re praying for a series of moderate tropical storms. Maybe one next week?

  28. Perhaps we should graph the rain fall amounts this month in Houston and Tampa and use the average. That should make everyone in Houston feel better.

  29. Don’t mess with Texas.

    I was keeping an eye on the radar as it moved ashore, and in less than 3 hours the entire storm desintegrated as it hit the massively hot, dry air mass that has been entrenched over the state. Never before have I seen a storm just evaporate before my eyes!

    Here in Dallas we’ve been over 100 for 28 days straight. That’s a hot one, even for us. Of course, we won’t come close to the 42 straight days back in 1980. I guess that’s some comfort.

  30. WE had updates all day Friday by some doctor on how the storm was coming. A few minutes of drizzle from 3 to 5 pm. Then a tiny drizzle after that. Oh and 5 rumbles of thunder and two visible lighntning strikes. No wind, nothing overnight except humidity. Another media panic / hysteria.

  31. Meanwhile, it’s raining in the Southern California desert – Barstow, to be precise. Flood watches and warnings are issued. In July. (2:00 pm, Pacific Daylight Time)

  32. Your opening sentence should read “For those in South Texas hoping for some drough relief from Tropical Storm Don, so far early Saturday morning after landfall, a trace or scant rainfall is to be found.”

    SE Texas is considered Houston/Beaumont/Port Arthur, not Brownsville.

  33. The rain follows me around. I haven’t been to Texas for some time as you can imagine. Last time I was there it rained. That’s why it’s raining in Barstow now. Heck, I can go fishing with my brother and it will be raining on my end of the bass boat while his end will be perfectly dry and maybe even sunny!

  34. I was so hoping Texas would get a little rain from Don. They need it so badly. Hang in there, Texas. Droughts come and go, and this one is no different. It will end.

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