Some surprising sanity from one of the most insane places on the web. This could be a Nike ad, all it needs is a swoosh to go with the slogan. Joe Romm and Bill McKibben, this message is for you from your kossack in arms.
From the “weatherdude” at Daily Kos:
Here’s a further excerpt:
I’ve said it a few times (much to the dismay of many), but the tornadoes this year do not indicate a growing trend. If we have numerous tornado oubreaks of this intensity in the decade, THEN it’s a worrying trend. Until then, stop with the talking point positioning. We know climate change is happening, but to say that the tornadoes were a direct result without the trend of tornado outbreaks with this intensity to back it up is a really big freakin’ leap.
If this shit happens again next year, and the year after that, I’ll go into full mea culpa mode. But until then, stop it. It weakens our argument to scream “CLIMATE CHANGE ZOMG!” every time something bad happens. It takes trends over years to make this argument. Trends equal climate, events equal weather.
Earlier today someone posted a diary saying that the heat burst in Wichita, KS this week was “the beginning” of some more nefarious climate stuff happening. No it’s not! As I said in the diary’s comments, heat bursts are a well documented natural phenomenon that’s happened ever since thunderstorms started. The tl;dr explanation is that dry air got into the thunderstorm as it collapsed (all the rain/hail upstairs falls down at once because the storm can’t support it anymore), and the rain evaporated and made the dry air cooler. As it got cooler, it got denser, and fell to the ground. As it fell, it compressed and heated up, hit the ground, made the temperatures rise in a hurry and created 50-60 MPH winds.
That’s it. That’s what happened. It didn’t happen because the oceans are warming or the ice caps are melting or because BP fucking sucks. It happened because the updraft could no longer support a column of precipitation, it fell, heated up and dispersed at ground level. It’s not climate change and it weakens our argument to call it climate change, so stop it. Just because you don’t understand why something is happening doesn’t mean you should run to the nearest public forum and shout the first thing that comes to your mind.
Brave man, his full essay is here. h/t to Keith Kloor
WUWT covered the Wichita heat burst here, and I agree with the analysis he printed above.
For basic science on the issues of the tornado outbreaks this year, may I suggest these two WUWT essays:
The folly of linking tornado outbreaks to “climate change”
NOAA CSI: no attribution of climate change to tornado outbreak
Oh, wow, I forgot that site even existed.
To me the exact obverse seems to be true. Extreme weather events are more likely to be linked to GLOBAL COOLING, which is currently just starting its progress to cold for a generation. See the recent sunspot announcements.
Will alarmists ever wake up to this.
North-western USA temperatures have been low this year with massive snowfalls etc. These lower temperatures and warmer air form the Gulf of Mexico generate increased differentials and thus give rise to the more extreme weather / tornado events that we have seen recently. As Global Cooling proceeds the differential – Poles to the Equator grows and one can expect more weather extremes not less.
A warmer climate is likely to be more BENIGN and a colder climate is TRULY DEADLY.
From http://judithcurry.com/2011/05/26/the-futility-of-carbon-reduction/#more-3330 Brian H | June 1, 2011 at 6:22 am | At a rough guess, the odds of warming being benign are about 80%, and of cooling being benign about 0.01%. The odds of warming occurring are about 10%, and of cooling occurring about 60%. The ratio of the riskiness is thus [(1-.8)(.1)]/[(.6)(1-.9999)] = .02/.00006 = 333. So it makes 333X more sense to prepare for cooling disaster than for warming.
LOL. I am afraid the infection has spread to the point of contagion. When individuals begin believing in nonsense, make believe, and wishful delusion, it often infects all belief systems. Positive feedback, the desire to control, and an unrealistic appraisal of one’s own intelligence, while ignoring actual education on the subject, contribute.
Try this site for some very main stream opinions that aren’t really supportable.
http://theconversation.edu.au/climate-change-is-real-an-open-letter-from-the-scientific-community-1808#comments
I asked where the “proof” for man made CO2 warming was only to be told that asking for proof was “unscientific”.
So I asked why the absence of proof was then justification for us to immediately stop burning stuff . Response . . .
yup . . total silence.
This is the old stockmarket warning. When you start getting tips from the bellboy get out of the market because a crash is coming. It never fails.
Alert to all states and municipalities that I have pleaded with the past 2 years. Please double your snow removal budgets for the foreseeable future. Don’t run out of money for it like you did last year like I told you you would if you didn’t listen to me. The Sun is in an extended solar minimum for the past 3 years for crying out loud. Please listen to me this time.
It’s the Sun Stupid, making the climate Change.
Nice. He did forget one condition though. If during the next ten years storms are worse and global temps are higher than the past 10 years. Only if temps rise could it be meaningful.
Expecting storms to get worse because of GHG warming defies all logic. Being well mixed beyond the short term, slowing heat loss can only be a net stabilizing force.
“Just because you don’t understand why something is happening doesn’t mean you should run to the nearest public forum and shout the first thing that comes to your mind.”
That’s good advice on any topic and it was all courtesy of the weather dude.
But…. IS climate changing? From what to what, per se? The entire concept is ridiculous.
DailyKos obviously tries to get into the Tea Party segment because progressives are going extinct from lack of animal protein. Smart move. /sarc
Anthony,
Much of science believes that climate and science is chaotic to understand.
This is due to the building of perfect science to what the Universe is actually produced.
Formulas and equations that will last forever are incorrect to a changing planet and solar system.
A great deal of bad science has made a terrible mess of understanding the solar system and planet.
Even simple mechanics is blown off as theories rein as supreme in the current science arena.
The fact that any ‘extreme event’ will be blamed on global warming is more predictable than the events themselves are.
The vultures of climate change activitsm: Part III
Another thing that caught my eye: Kloor usually quotes extensively from articles he links to. On occasion, when he takes potshots, say at Joe Romm, or at Watts, he just does brief one-liner posts. Kloor frames weatherdude’s post in the same manner, and a superficial discussion ensues. Whereas weatherdude is actually on much solid footing and has excellent advice for the activists: make as much hay of something that has a clear climate-link, don’t cry ‘precipitation’ or ‘high wind’ every time any dog pees on a tree stump or a horse farts.
I’m still trying to deal with Romm’s constant call about ‘Climate Pollution’, what the heck is “Climate Pollution”?
The longer you measure the weather, the more likely you are to see extreme events. Over time it will appear statistically that the climate is changing, becoming more extreme. However, this is simply poor statistics. What is changing is the length of your sample.
If you toss a coin long enough eventually you will get 10 heads in a row, while a short record almost never will show 10 heads i a row. Climate change is happening because our records are getting longer. The longer we record the weather, the more likely it becomes that we will observe extreme events.
Climate change is in large part is the result of the incorrect application of statistics to achieve a misleading result.
You know occasionally you come across a warmist who actually talks in a measured enough way that it really highlights the absolute clunking bs of the rest.
I give him at most a couple of months before he turns into a sceptic!
While it is nice to hear some of this from that side, I wonder why so many leftist sites and people on it are so prone to obscenities. They can’t write a simple blog posting without cursing.
It is almost as if their minds are so limited that they can’t get a concept across, they can’t get the force of an issue across without resorting using those words. I guess when anything goes, taboos are moot.
I find it so distasteful.
http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2011-06-06/pedal-powered-farms-and-factories-forgotten-future-stationary-bicycle
OK (Can’t use Tips & notes, for some reason) but this is obviously got to be a Climate Craziness of the Week item.
Green jobs a plenty.
Too bad this logic wasn’t applied to the many things that KOS spouted, however I’ll take it as the proverbial wooden stalk in the anaemic GW heart if they’re saying that now. I will always referee to this scam as “global warming” as that’s how it was forced upon and sold to us – bad science and lies and many progressives like KOS sided with the GW without question initially until it was so obvious that this just wasn’t so or their perceived enemy is a won over warmista.
The hundreds of comments there for a small blurb seem kind of odd to me since there is not much logic in most of them yet they are not like rabid skeptic haters either, on average. I think they are bonding, basically, patting each other on the back, and keeping up their activist spirit. How cute!
Today I discovered a creepy doppelganger site, in which AGW enthusiasts snicker about posts here amongst themselves on a WUWT mirror site instead of actually posting here. It would actually be great to have more actual debate on WUWT rather than just a few trolls now and again, but I think technically competent alarmists have figured out that they would risk getting shot down as their followers watched, which would slowly degrade their influence over them.
http://wottsupwiththat.com
That they do this is curious and supports my impression that AGW enthusiast seeming obsession with skeptics, shown on blogs and in the Climategate e-mails, is all about keeping their volunteer regiments in line so instead of reading content here or actually commenting here (and possibly be brought to the perceived “dark side” thus), a frantic series of WUWT reactionary sites feed them their daily bread instead. I don’t think ClimateAudit.org is a big worry since it’s too technical for your average Greenpeace kid to delve into. But WUWT must be actively countered with all manner of soundbites about horrendous lies and links to Tamino’s latest comment-censored chuckle based mostly on cleverly graphing things to favor AGW. Like any competent cult movement they have effectively isolated the bulk of their layperson members. All those PR firms are training them well.
Yesterday I learned that comic book artist John Cook’s partner on SkepticalScience.com works for a nuclear weapons design company that now also gets three hundred million dollar grants for green energy. RealClimate.org is owned by the PR firm that was behind both the silicone breast implant scare that bankrupted Dow Corning and the autism/vaccine scare. DeSmogBlog.com is financed by a $125 million online gambling convicted money launderer who now sells solar cells.
Next stop, the Twilight Zone!
It was not long ago when someone writing those words would have been fired, or his comments deleted or he would have been labeled a holocost denier.
Times have changed.
@ur momisugly Martin Brumby says:
June 15, 2011 at 5:56 am
http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2011-06-06/pedal-powered-farms-and-factories-forgotten-future-stationary-bicycle
OK (Can’t use Tips & notes, for some reason) but this is obviously got to be a Climate Craziness of the Week item.
Green jobs a plenty.
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I think the Romans used an early variant of this idea on board ships. Called them galley slaves, IIRC. 😉
DAily Kos disappoints. – gavin.
Re blogs in general a nice bit of quirkiness:
You may have heard the report that a blog purportedly being written by a lesbian Syrian in Damascus is a hoax (written by an American bloke in Edinburgh!!). The UK Guardian was, as you might expect, completely taken in and even published a supposed interview with the lady in question ‘from their own correspondent hidden in Syria’.
But of course the Guardian remains totally reliable about ‘climate change’! Wait! maybe RealClimate is actually a blog written by a one-legged Syrian lesbian living in Damascus. Maybe George Monbiot isn’t all he seems…. 😉