By Dr. David Whitehouse, The Global Warming Policy Foundation
Now that the relevant data for the temperature of the Earth’s surface for the past year are available, it is instructive to examine the claims made by some that it was the hottest year ever, and claims made by others that it was in second place.
One way of looking at the year’s data we have used before is to see how the individual months fare. This is only one way of interpreting the data, there are others, but this way will show if any record temperature is a result of a general yearlong rise or just a few exceptional months.
These five temperature databases I examine give the monthly temperature to thousandths of a degree which is superfluous. When rounded up to a more physically sensible 0.1 deg almost all of the differences between the years of the past decade go away, but that is another story, and not the subject of this post.
2010 was an El Nino year. Before I examine the monthly temperature for the year I thought it would be instructive to see what an El Nino year looks like. In this case the strongest El Nino on record.
1998
Data from Hadcrut3 produced by the Climatic Research Unit.
January; (at the time the warmest on record) cooler than 07, 04, 03, 02.
February; warmest on record.
March; (at the time the warmest on record) cooler than 10, 02.
April; warmest on record.
May; warmest on record.
June; warmest on record.
July; warmest on record.
August; warmest on record.
September; (at the time the warmest on record) cooler than 09, 07, 06, 05, 04, 03, 02, 01.
October; (at the time cooler than 97) cooler than 09, 08, 06, 05, 04, 03, 02, 01, 97.
November; (at the time cooler than 97) cooler than 10, 09, 08, 06, 05, 04, 03, 02, 01, 97.
December; (at the time cooler than 97) cooler than 06, 03, 97.
The data shows just how exceptional was 1998 (and 1997). Nine months broke a record, and the other three were close. The warm Spring is typical of El Nino.
The subsequent warm decade has altered things somewhat. We see that even for the hottest year on record, by most global temperature datasets, half of the months of the year were unexceptional in the context of the recent (and warmest) decade. 1998 now has the top 4 of the warmest months on record, and another entry in the top ten. Curiously, in the top ten warmest months, only two are after 2002 (Jan 07 in 6th place and March 10 in 10th.)
For comparison consider a non-El Nino year.
January; cooler that 07, 02.
February; cooler than 10, 07, 06, 04, 02, 99, 98.
March; cooler than 10, 08, 07, 05, 04, 02, 01, 98.
April; cooler than 10, 07, 05, 04, 02, 01, 00, 98.
May; cooler than 10, 05, 02, 98.
June; cooler than 10, 09, 05, 02, 98.
July; cooler than 10, 09, 06, 05, 02, 98.
August; 09,98.
September; warmest on record.
October; warmest on record.
November; 10, 09, 08, 05, 04, 01, 97.
December; cooler than 97.
The differences are clear.
Moving onto 2010 there are five temperature databases to examine.
Dataset: Crut3v
January; cooler than 09, 08, 06, 00, 99.
February; cooler than 09, 08, 06, 03, 01, 00.
March; warmest on record.
April; cooler than 07, 05.
May; cooler than 03, 98.
June; warmest on record.
July; cooler than 06, 05, 98.
August; cooler than 09, 01, 98.
September; cooler than 09, 07, 05.
October; cooler than 09, 08, 07, 06, 05, 04, 03, 98.
November; cooler than 05, 04.
December; cooler than 09, 08, 07, 06, 05, 04, 03, 02, 01, 99, 98, 97, 96, 94, 93, 90, 89, 88, 87, 81, 79, 39,1852.
Note: Two record months, though not statistically significant. El Nino warmth in Spring. La Nina cooling later in the year.
2010 overall; cooler than 2005, 1998.
Dataset: Hadcrut3 from CRU
January; cooler than 07, 04, 03, 02.
February; cooler than 07, 02, 99, 98.
March; cooler than 02.
April; cooler than 98.
May; cooler than 98.
June; cooler than 98.
July; cooler than 05, 98.
August; cooler than 06, 05, 03, 01, 98.
September; cooler than 09, 07, 06, 05, 04, 03, 98,97.
October; cooler than 09, 08, 06, 05, 04, 03, 98, 97.
November; cooler than 09, 06, 05, 04, 01, 97.
December; cooler than 09, 08, 07, 06, 05, 04, 03, 02, 01, 99, 98, 97, 92, 87, 79.
Note: No single month broke a record. Warm Spring evidence of El Nino.
2010 overall; cooler than 2005, 1998, equivalent to 2003.
“Met Office” Hadcrut3
(the Met Office also has a database it calls Hadcrut3 which it calculates a different way from CRU)
Jan; cooler that 07, 04, 03, 02, 98.
Feb; cooler than 07, 04, 02, 99, 98.
March; cooler than 02.
April; cooler than 98.
May; cooler than 98.
June; cooler than 98.
July; cooler than 98.
August; cooler than 09, 06, 05, 03, 01, 98.
September; cooler than 09, 07, 06, 05, 04, 03, 02, 01, 98.
October; cooler than 09, 08, 06, 05, 04, 03, 98.
November; cooler than 05, 04, 01.
December; cooler than 09, 08, 06, 05, 04, 03, 02, 01, 99, 98, 97.
Note 5 warm months in the Northern Hemisphere Spring – sign of a strong El Nino. No single month broke a record.
2010 overall; cooler than 1998.
Dataset: NOAA
January; cooler than 07, 03, 02.
February; cooler than 04, 02, 99, 98.
March; warmest on record.
April; warmest on record.
May; warmest on record.
June; cooler than 05.
July; cooler than 05, 98.
August; cooler than 09, 06, 05, 03,02.
September; cooler than 09, 07, 06, 05, 04, 03, 02, 98.
October; cooler than 09, 08, 06. 05, 04, 03, 02.
November; cooler than 04.
December; cooler than 09, 08, 07, 06, 05, 04, 03, 02, 01, 99, 98, 97, 94, 90, 87, 82, 79.
Note: Three record months, though not statistically significant. Evidence of El Nino warmth in Spring.
The NOAA Press Release said 2010 tied with 2005. However, the quoted errors are +/- 0.07 which means that 2010 is statistically equivalent to 09,08,07,06,05,04,03,02,01,98.
Note that in the NOAA dataset 2010 is 2nd warmest land temperature and 3rd warmest ocean temperature.
Dataset: NasaGiss
January; cooler than 07, 05, 02.
February; cooler than 98.
March; cooler than 02.
April; warmest on record.
May; cooler 98.
June; cooler than 09, 05, 98.
July; cooler than 09, 08, 07, 05, 02, 01, 98.
August; cooler than 09, 01, 98.
September; cooler than 09, 06, 05, 03, 98.
October; cooler than 05, 03.
November; warmest on record.
December; cooler than 09, 08, 06, 05, 04, 03, 01, 99, 97.
Note: Evidence of warm El Nino Spring. Record warmest months not statistically significant.
According to NasaGiss 2010 set a record with only two record months.
A NASA Press Release said 2010 tied with 2005 which at a temperature anomaly of 0.63 was 0.01 above 2005. The Press Release went on to say that 1998 was in third place with 09,07,06,03 and 02. However, the reality is that 1998 and the other years are statistically equivalent being spread over a range of 0.03 deg C within the errors of 2010 and 2005. NasaGiss is thus statistically equivalent to no change since 1998 (note that in 2005 NasaGiss announced that 2005 was a dead heat with 1998. In 2007 they put 1998 behind 2005.)
Many press reports said that 2010 was a near-record breaking year despite the cooling influence of a La Nina later in the year. What was omitted however was mention of the fact that the reason why the year was marginally warmer than previous years was because of the warming El Nino.
Contrary to press reports the evidence is that 2010 was a year no different from all of the years 2001-2009 with the exception of a moderate to strong El Nino that elevated temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere’s Spring, and a cooling La Nina later in the year. The standstill seen in global temperatures since 2001 continues.
Finally, the temperature anomalies for the past 13 years.
| Year | Met Office Hadcrut | CRU Hadcrut | CRUTem | Giss | NOAA |
| 2010 | 0.50 | 0.47 | 0.71 | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| 2009 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.56 |
| 2008 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.53 | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| 2007 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.68 | 0.58 | 0.55 |
| 2006 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.67 | 0.55 | 0.56 |
| 2005 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.75 | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| 2004 | 0.43 | 0.44 | 0.61 | 0.48 | 0.54 |
| 2003 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.65 | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| 2002 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.66 | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| 2001 | 0.40 | 0.41 | 0.55 | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| 2000 | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.36 | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| 1999 | 0.26 | 0.30 | 0.49 | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| 1998 | 0.52 | 0.53 | 0.82 | 0.56 | 0.60 |
Note; Met Office Hadcrut, CRU Hadcrut and CRUTem are all with respect to 1961–90. Giss is 1951-80. NOAA 1901-2000.
Feedback: david.whitehouse@thegwpf.org
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How much more can the man-made global warming crowd take before they cry Uncle!? Some people just have to learn the hard way.
Video in link.
“ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. — Albuquerque Mayor Richard Berry is asking residents to turn their thermostats down to help the state curb its current natural gas shortage.
Berry is asking residents to turn their thermostats down 10 degrees and wear heavier clothing to ease the state’s gas problems.
Around 7 a.m. Thursday, the city of Albuquerque was notified of statewide gas pressure issues, Berry said. The gas company said there was a potential to have 10,000-20,000 homes without gas because of the pressure issues.”
http://www.koat.com/r/26731189/detail.html
Meanwhile scientists have proved that feeling warmer makes you more likely to believe in AGW
http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-02-people-global.html
people will believe what they want to be true, or what they are afraid might be true — from the Sword of Truth, Terry Goodkind
No, 2010 wasn’t even really close to the hottest. But the precipitation bouncing from wet to very dry was difficult for crops.
World food prices reach new record
http://www.france24.com/en/20110203-world-food-prices-reach-new-record
Why is it big news that today’s temperatures are a few hundreths or tenths of a degree warmer than last year or last decade, when the GISP2 ice core temperature data shows the Medieval Period about a 1,000 years ago 1.2C higher than today, the Roman Period 2,100 years ago 2.4C higher than today, and the Minoan Period 3,300 years ago 3.0C higher than today (Alley, JQSR, 19, 213-226). In fact, for about 46% of the time during the last 600,000,000 years, temperatures were at 22C, about 5.5C higher than today (PALEOTEMP). Why are some scientists myopic about hundreths or tenths of a degC for the last few years/decades? The trend for thousands of years is clear – we are getting colder.
No matter how any data set is sliced or diced for any particular year, the argument that the year is the warmest/coolest is meaningful only in the context of temperature variations over supra-centennial scales in an UNADULTERATED time-series. None of the series cited here fits that description, nor does that of the much-too-brief satellite monitoring. Thus we are left with sensationalization of natural variablity as seen through the prism of the data biases and uncertainties. Inasmuch as year-to year variability of individual months is even greater than yearly averages, that problem is only exacerbated by undue attention to monthly records.
There is a plateau. Clearly, it has not been enough to terrify the American people. The English are another matter. Can Hansen keep his finger off the scale? I think that good old rad-liberal over-reach will pop the old temperature right on up to another plateau. Get ready for a record setting year.
Please note that with all of the power of the US government behind him, all Hansen can manage is .1 degree per decade. What amazes me is that anyone takes this foolishness seriously. Of course, maybe he will push it up to .2 or .3 degrees. Why not? Only he and minions have access to the data and, for that reason, there is nothing to lose.
OUCH !!!!
Way to many numbers for me to follow/keep track of !!
This is what I come away with:
“These five temperature databases I examine give the monthly temperature to thousandths of a degree which is superfluous. When rounded up to a more physically sensible 0.1 deg almost all of the differences between the years of the past decade go away, …..”
Not to mention whatever superfluous adjustments are made !!!
Good post !!
I wonder if this Dr David Whitehouse is the noted astronomer and former BBC science correspondent.
Well you have to distinguish between “feeling warm” and “being warm” as in a higher temperature range.
So you’ve had a nice hot day (locally) and plenty of sun, and a good bit of humifity, and around sundown clouds start to condense at higher altitudes; and you have a nice balmy night.
So you do your morning calisthenics, and then set off to work. The sun has just risen over the horizon, and already you feel overly warm. But what does the Thermometer say; is it really warm, or do you just feel warm.
When the humidity is up, you are going to feel warm regardless of whether the temperature is high or not. You body is trying to get rid of excess heat after your big breakfast and quick workout; but because of the humidity, your evaporative cooling system just doesn’t work.
The subjective feeling of warmth, is no indication of increased temperatures. It is almost a certainty that the early morning Temperature is well down from what it was the night before at sundown, yet you still think it is hot.
good post
Meanwhile… another two feet of snow.
This is issue is the perfect example of the way language is used to influence
people’s thinking … hot! hotter!! hottest!! … as if we are all about to burst into
flames. Sadly, the sceptical lobby concedes ground to the Warmists, by debating
whether 2010 was the ‘hottest’ year, which acquiesces to the linguistic chicanery.
Translate all these various findings to absolute temperatures: nothing ‘hot’
at all about them !!
How would yearly temp data compare if one used data from Oct 1 to Sept 30?
Dr. David Whitehouse,
Thank you for your calm reasonable presentation of the past 13 years of Earth surface temperatures ending in 2010 for the major data sets.
From the data my understanding is that 2010 was not the warmest.
John
I have no idea (except for political ideologies and scientific grants) why we should be worried about warming temperatures anyway. As any farmer and fisherman can tell you, warmer weather and higher CO2 has given us far more benefits over the last 12 years with regards to improved yields and quality of primary produce.
Our quality of life is also much better when it is warmer, which is why there are so many ‘grey nomads’ traveling the north in OZ during winter, and people moving to Queensland. Even Florida and Spain where Northern Hemisphere nomads retire, seem much too cold the last couple of winters.
I live in the tropics, and the warmer weather (resulting from warmer East Indian Ocean temps) has been a huge benefit, with many more ‘good’ wet seasons than the past, despite little change in long term temperature averages.
Hope you like the current temperatures. All the warmists want us to live with the heat from the late 70’s, which according to UAH we are at now.
There is an old saying that if you have a clock, you can tell what time it is. If you have two clocks, you’re not really sure of the time. With five or six clocks (or thermometers) you are even less sure of the time (or temperature.)
So, the holders of multiple measurement devices tend to drift off and allow their biases to govern their opinion of actual values.
Dr. Whitehouse has come closest I’ve seen to coming up with probable actuals.
Here’s a quick hypothetical question;
Why shouldn’t the AGW proponents simply say whatever they wish? What are the actual negative consequences for doing so, when they’ll still have legions of followers hanging on every word?
This post is about science, and math, and the attempt to pin down some facts as best we can. But the AGW debate doesn’t particularly seem to revolve around science, math, or facts.
I think the backlash in 2-3 years will be of epic proportions.
The whole notion of “warmest year” strikes me as irrelevant. Somebody didn’t suddenly turn up the furnace (sun) so if the insolation didn’t change the temperature increase that was seen in the atmosphere and the sea surface came from the oceanic heat sink. At the end of the year if the temperature was lower then the heat went “somewhere” and there are only two places it could go: radiated away or reabsorbed into the oceanic heat sink. Hence the real question is what was the total heat content of the atmosphere/aquasphere at the beginning of the year and what was it at the end. If it was equal to or less than the heat at the beginning then the temps in between are irrelevant. All that would have been measured by temperature is “noise” with heat being transferred from one sink in the system to another or radiated away.
It is irrelevant to claim the transitional months (spring and fall) are “warmer” or “cooler” than “normal”. If the winter is warmer, with a normal summer, spring MUST also be warmer because it has less temperature difference to go. (it’s not physically possible for there to be a cooler than normal spring after a warmer than normal winter). The only months in the Northern Hemesphere that count for any trend is Summer Tmax-Tmin, and Winter Tmax-Tmin.
to thousandths of a degree which is superfluous. When rounded up to a more physically sensible 0.1 deg
If you round everything up from top to bottom in the process you can make several years ‘hottest ever’. Or, if you start with few rounding ups and incrementally add more rounding ups year by year you can, conceivably, create continual warming. If you are an environmental activist with access to the data it is possible you would do this.
Temperature is, as Temperature does.
Forest Gump Misquote.
When 100 year events recur annually, when unprecedented morphs into “not for ages” isn’t it time to call halt to modern science?
When, if and maybe, perhaps and likely are elevated to the ranks of data isn’t it time we just started blaming witches again?
I’d say no but only if we redefine Science as to what it once was. Data, observation and hypothesis. Not digital curve fitting, not simplistic single variable extrapolations, not even self-flagellating fantasies that transport us to exotic locations on other peoples money.
Just cold and ascetic logic.
If UHI was but a trifling third decimal point adjustment then why bother gathering the firewood?
If trees are proven to behave badly post-1960 then why should we seek to trust them before then?
If we want Science to survive then it’s time for genuine Scientists to point the finger of guilt to those who have sailed under a false flag!
This is what “skeptics” look like when they are desperate. The world is warming. The past decade was the hotted on record. 2010 was, on average, tied with 2005 as the warmest year on record. DW’s bizarre data twisting is irrelevant, although he may well be able to start a new career as a contortionist.
Has anyone compiled how many stations were used in each of the years in question (since 1880 or so I think NASA said), How many in 2010 are the same as a hundred years ago, and how may of the stations in each year are “infills”, in other words, estimates?