by David Whitehouse of the GWPF
The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 3 December 2010
If the media headlines are to be believed 2010 is heading to be either the warmest or in the top three warmest years since the instrumental global temperature records began 150 years ago, and proof that the world is getting ever warmer. But looking more closely at the data reveals a different picture.
2010 will be remembered for just two warm months, attributable to the El Nino effect, with the rest of the year being nothing but average, or less than average temperature.
With November and December¹s data still to come in (that will account for 16% of the year¹s data) the UK Met Office estimates the temperature anomaly (with respect to the end of the 19th century) for 2010 so far as 0.756 deg C. As it has been cooling for the past 4 months we can expect that figure to decline below the 2005 0.747 deg C level and the El Nino influenced 1998 of 0.820 deg C.
2010 will therefore be no higher than the third warmest year, possibly lower.
Warm Spring
What has made 2010 warm is March and June due to El Nino, a short-term natural effect and nothing to do with anthropogenic global warming.
January was cooler than January in 2007, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002 and 1998.
February was cooler than February in 2007, 2004, 2002, and 1998.
March was exceptionally warm at a temperature anomaly of 0.971. However it was, given the errors, statistically comparable with March 2008 (0.907) and March 1990 (0.910).
April was cooler than April 2007, 2005, and 1998.
May was cooler than May 2003 and 1998.
June was exceptionally warm at 0.827 deg C though statistically identical to June 2005 (0.825) and 1998.
July, when things started to cool, was cooler than July 2006, 2005 and 1998.
August was cooler than August 2009, about the same as 2005, and cooler than 2001 and 1998.
September was cooler than September 2009, 2007, 2005, 2001 and 1998.
October the last month for which there are records was cooler than October 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003 and 1998.
The pattern is therefore of an unexceptional year except for a Spring/early summer El Nino that elevated temperatures.
There is no evidence whatsoever that the lack of warming seen in the global average annual temperatures seen in the last decade has changed.
Check the figures for yourself here.
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Here Endeth The Lesson
Now will someone please turn off the refrigeration on the UK?
Warm spring? Not in Aus matey…and “summer” is looking pants too! Humid yes, stupid humidity, ~95+, horrid. Fortunately we have temps at ~27c where I am.
Whilst the CRU are a bit of a joke, even they haven’t upjusted the figures to get them as high as these.
Are they in Fahrenheit?
Thanks for an interesting post. In the CRUTEM 3GL file, what is the second row for each year? An admittedly-quick google doesn’t seem to turn up any documentation of this file. I thought at first that they were the number of days that contributed to each monthly average – but then there are quite a few samples where this number is higher than the number of days in the month.
Have to share this one which I have just heard on Radio Scotland – after another night of sub-zero temperatures Scotland has had another band of snow sweep over this morning, so Edinburgh airport and many main roads and motorways all over the central belt are closed again. However, the airport on Barra Airport is now open – after they managed to break the ice off the famous beach runway. (Barra is the only airport in the world where scheduled flight timetable is set by the tides). So now even the usually mild Atlantic Ocean is beginning to freeze!
Of course, it’s possible that the frequency of El Nino years is changing due to global warming. And, furthermore, you’re comparing individual months with cherrypicked years. Of course you’re going to find warmer years for several months.
No warming trend for last 15 years
As Bastardi and Romm are in the news together, I thought you all might like reminding of this….
http://climateprogress.org/2010/03/01/accuweather%E2%80%99s-joe-bastardi-admits-earth-continues-warmest-winter-since-satellite-measurements-started-and-feb-should-be-warmest-on-record/
Which contains the following from Joe Romm:
Oh, and for the record, Bastardi predicts (in early February, I think):
“I think that 2010 will not be the hottest year on record for the earth, at least not by Satellite measurements as cooling is already starting”
I’ll take that bet.
Ah I notice that the best temperature record is now the CRU one and coincidentally the coolest. I guess all the complaints about UHI, station placement, adjustments etc are no longer a concern.
I remember a few years back when the satellite records the best when they were the coolest.
In any event this method of analysis is quite odd. It simply lists a month-by-month basis which previous months were hotter with no attempt to discern a trend or pattern.
If 2010 is an unexceptional year in an unexceptional decade (as far as warming is concerned) we might expect more references to the 90s or even 80s. Instead the only years each month is cooler than are in the 2000s or strong El-Nino year of 1998. This makes it very difficult to support the argument that warming stopped in either 1995 or 1998.
So January 2010 had a POSITIVE temperature anomaly? Are they joking?
I also remember back to last winter, there were some figures released that said Jan 2010 was the warmest January in the Northern hemisphere on record. No-one even seemed to challenge this.
Wow, the BBC had headlines on teletext that this year has been the warmest or at least second warmest ever and the Met office are confident that this is due to human induced rises in C02! I beleive them, they ARE THE BBC (not really). It’s NOT worse than we thought. Sorry it had to be said!
What is an evident truth is that the lower the average temperatures are, the hotter the global warmers´ heads.
Sharing another summary of weather:
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/msm-inertia-what-we-can-learn-from-120-years-of-climate-catastrophe-reporting/
Art Horn presents NA views. ¨…reporting of climate catastrophe has been going on for over 120 years.¨
Wouter says:
December 6, 2010 at 4:27 am
Of course, it’s possible that the frequency of El Nino years is changing due to global warming.
=================================================
I wonder if you realize that if we don’t know this, then we don’t know enough to do
climate computer models at all………
This is why we shouldn’t use “annual averages”. It does not give a real picture of what actually happened.
Funny as all warmists now embrace satellite data, since troposphere is known to be overreacting on positive ENSO events.
There is a good chance even for multiyear La Nina event. “Warmest evah” will remain far away.
Check the rate of cooling, already visible at NH extratropics record.
http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/icrutem3_hadsst2_0-360E_30-90N_na.png
Simultaneously negative PDO, AMO, NAO/AO and sun activity is a pretty much recipe for unprecedented downhill.
Wouter,
“Of course, it’s possible that the frequency of El Nino years is changing due to global warming.”
Possible? Does that mean very likely, more likely than not or somwhat likely?
” And, furthermore, you’re comparing individual months with cherrypicked years. Of course you’re going to find warmer years for several months.”
The point is that only 2 months of the year constituted record temperatures. People might ask how a record year can result from only 2 record months, if all the other months have precedents. How is that cherry picking? It is simply a fact. You are free to make of it what you will.
Wouter says:
December 6, 2010 at 4:27 am
Of course, it’s possible that the frequency of El Nino years is changing due to global warming.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
..possibly…possibly….possibly….. it’s all based on this word. Global warmist are always predicting, but they have never ever got one right. We were supposed to not to know what snow is by now, but it turn out that we know what snow is, meters high. We were supposed to be noticing ocean rises, but nothing, zero. We were suppose to see Antarctica melting, but its freezing more. We were supposed to see Greenland melting, bit the ice there continues to get more weight. Glaciers melting, not really with some growing back.
..possibly possibly possibly… this is not science, it’s alchemy.
I’m surprised they waited so long before releasing the results for this “year”. After all, with each passing day the average drops precipitously. Think it has something to do with the shindig going on in Mexico? Just like the global financial “crisis” cropping up at the same time as the Nopenhagen failure. Governments figured they had it made 5 or 6 years ago on the carbon tax front, and started spending the money before they had it, as usual, and the failure of these taxes to yet materialise has caught them with their pants down.
November and December data still to come in (actually 16.67% to be picky, David) – and the ‘scientists’ (I use the term loosely) are already predicting ‘one of the warmest on record..??
Blimey – they’re taking a chance, aren’t they..? No doubt we’ll get something like: ‘One of the warmest on record – except for November and December’.
Yeah, right…
Tom, the second row of data in the file is the percentage of the globe that the data covers. To find this information, follow Davids link and then delete the file name to go up one folder. Note that this percentage number has fallen quite a bit since the 1980s.
Also, the data that David Whitehouse uses and links to is for CRUTEM, this is the one based on land data only. The one that includes sea temperature data is HADCRUT3. But looking at 2010 and 1998 for HADCRUT3 gives a similar story. The monthly numbers for 1998 were
0.492 0.756 0.548 0.647 0.596 0.606 0.671 0.647 0.393 0.420 0.351 0.444
with a year-average of 0.548.
The monthly data for 2010 so far are
0.498 0.491 0.587 0.579 0.511 0.533 0.534 0.475 0.389 0.392
with a ten-month average of 0.499.
Of the 10 months so far, 2010 has beaten 1998 only in Jan and Mar.
To beat 1998, the 2010 HADCRUT3 anomalies for Nov and Dec would have to be up around 0.8 which is pretty unlikely give the current La Nina.
I have posted the numbers here, and saved a copy of the data files, just in case the numbers in the files mysteriously increase at the end of the year.
wow, is this what passes for blog analysis these days? Should be titled “the art of cherry picking”? Shouldn’t the obvious point be that just another ‘el nino year’ can now give rise to one of the top 3 warmest on record?
The Daily mail has the story,
What happened to the ‘warmest year on record’: The truth is global warming has halted,
referring to David Whitehouse’s story and the spin, distortion and backtracking of the Met Office.
This year was not impressive other than the fact that it was an El Nino year. The 1998 one was the real beast to compare to. Without the power El Nino there were none of the other effects of global warming to panic about.
This winter will be a cold one…
This is awesome — global warming is total fiction!
2010 is ONLY the third warmest year on record! Those AGW alarmists are surely hanging their heads in shame having predicted 2010 would be in the top one or two!
It’s obvious now that any record high temperatures are merely caused by unexceptional El Ninos. Unexceptional El Ninos happen all the time, which is why record temperatures happen all the time, which is why record temperatures are booorrring!
Why, January was the COLDEST January this DECADE, not counting 2001, 2006, 2007 & 2008. March was NOT the coldest March ever: it was statistically tied with two others this decade! Every other month this year set similar records for LOW temperatures when compared to a small list of very recent years.
These are surely signs of the coming ice age.