From The Japan Times:
The number of typhoons this year could turn out to be the lowest on record, which experts theorize could be a result of the El Nino phenomenon lasting until this spring and the summer’s powerful high-pressure system in the Pacific.
As of Saturday, 14 typhoons — tropical cyclones generated in the Northwest Pacific or the South China Sea north of the equator with a minimum wind velocity of 61.9 kph — have been spawned this year.
The Meteorological Agency, which has been keeping statistics on typhoons since 1951, said the lowest number — 16 — was in 1998. The average per year between 1971 and 2000 was 26.7, while the most on record is 39 in 1967.
…
The agency believes the well-developed Pacific high that brought this summer’s heat wave has weakened the atmosphere’s convective activity in the sea, nipping the development of rain clouds, which help produce typhoons.
El Nino can similarly work to dampen the air’s convective activity in the sea near the Philippines, and the latest phenomenon is believed to have contributed to decreasing the number of typhoons this year, agency officials said.
Simulations run by the agency show that progress in global warming will reduce the number of typhoons but make each one more intense.
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Dr. Ryan Maue’s ACE plot also shows a low year. He adds: “The agency should have stopped when they were ahead and not mentioned global warming during a historically quiet Typhoon season. Their explanation must have been lost in the translation because almost everyone has noticed that there has been a rapidly developing and intense La Nina during the summer and fall of 2010. Put very simply, the previous historically quiet Typhoon seasons in the Western Pacific basin are usually associated with La Nina. Global ACE is still near 33-year lows, and shows no signs of picking up anytime soon.”
Figure: Year-to-Date (November 21) Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE; units: 104 knots2) for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole (top blue time series) and for the combination of the Western North Pacific (WPAC), Eastern North Pacific (EPAC), and Northern Indian (NIO) basins (bottom red time series). The difference between the two lines is therefore the contribution of the North Atlantic hurricane basin.
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“The Earth be Chilling!”
“Simulations run by the agency show that progress in global warming will reduce the number of typhoons but make each one more intense.”
Doooooh! Those pesky models again.
“Simulations run by the agency show that progress in global warming will reduce the number of typhoons but make each one more intense”
2008 Total number of Typhoons – 12, average windspeed 101.36mph
2009 Total number of typhoons – 15, average windspeed 98.33mph
2101 Total number of typhoons – 7, average windspeed 99.28mph
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008(*09*10)_Pacific_typhoon_season)
Your simulations are wrong. And therefore your conclusion. Try again.
It’s the See Oh Two what done it.
The lowest typhoon number was in very hot 1998 and the highest was in chilly 1967. The scientific consensus was that higher temperatures would bring more hurricanes, wasn’t it? Such anomalous behavior is so confusing.
Yes, the Philippines gets about 20 typhoons per year on average. Not all of them hit landfall, only the “Philippine area of responsibility” and this could be several hundred kilometers from the country’s landmass, whether east of the country (Pacific ocean) or west of the country (South China Sea). This year so far, we got only 12 typhoons, but typhoon Megi was super-strong.
… look into the glass ball
… I can see
yes …. It’s climate weirding!
… nope … it’s just noise!
The average wind has been slowing globally which would effect the energy available for these events.
So, I’ve asked Chris Mooney when he’s going to write ‘Calm World’.
=============
It’s the Global Climate (Scam) Disruption that did it.
Robert Burns comes to mind:
“The best-laid schemes o’ mice an ‘men
Gang aft agley, ”
agley: disrupted
Greater severity and numbers of storms are predicted by humans destroying the environment for our grand children. But this is predicted also.
Alex the skeptic says:
November 21, 2010 at 5:30 am
It’s the Global Climate (Scam) Disruption that did it.
Robert Burns comes to mind:
“The best-laid schemes o’ mice an ‘men
Gang aft agley, ”
======================================================
Very nice Alex, I like that, however, I think an American Icon would be more apt.
Homer Simpson, “Doh”!
But then in retrospect, I fully expect the alarmists to say this is perfectly consistent with Catastrophic Climate Change. Hot is cold, wet is dry, up is down and “war is peace.”
Excuse me while I…Whack!……get this square peg…Whack!…into….Whack!…this round…..Whack!…hole. Damn it why won’t it fit!
I am waiting for the inevitable, “Extremes such as this are consistent with global warming theory.”
We have modeled the models and find that we can announce almost anything that sounds somewhat reasonable somewhere some of the time. We just need improvement matching our models to reality.
Nobby, you need to use Mike’s trick to get the square peg into the round hole. Try using one of his pine cores as well, they can be molded (or is that modelled?) to say and do anything!
In climate science, seeing is the inverse of hearing.
I keep hearing about all these weather extremes, yet see so very few of them.
Yes but we should have guessed low typhoon activity is also caused by AGW just as a cold snowy Northern Hemisphere has been (model). [sarc off]
The most astonishing thing about Warmists is that their models are always wrong. Yet they persist in their dire predictions as if they have credibility.
Hmmm. According to Global waring theory/models, hurricane numbers/intensity should increase with temperature.
So let’s see. The “warmest year in a thousand years”, 1998, had the lowest ACE index in the satellite record. This year, the next warmest, or even the warmest on record, according to James Hansen, looks to be another reord low.
So come on CAGW true believers (e.g. Richard Gates), please explain how the theory is supported by the evidence, because I am clearly too thick/right-wing/brainwashed by Denier disinformation to see the obvious truth of impending climate catastrophe.
which experts theorize
The Meteorological Agency
The agency believes
agency officials said
Simulations run by the agency
==============================
Don’t know squat……….
Interesting thought — since winds are driven by temperature/pressure differentials, could the world wide average wind speed be a convenient way to measure the energy flow in the atmosphere.
For example:
In the hypothetical case of zero heat flow and uniform world wide temperature, there would be zero winds as I understand the mechanics of Hadley cell, and Ferrell cell formation. No temperature to drive convection so no air motion.
As temperature imbalance increases, the wind energy developed should increase. If you used the earths wind system as a method to integrate all the temperature differentials there would be no need to actually measure temperatures at all. You could use Doppler radar or similar satellite wide area sensing technology to directly measure the results of those temperature differentials in the wind velocity/energy.
Net global wind energy goes up, then heat flow must have changed with a net heat flow into the system from the sun, or increased heat loss from the system at the cold sinks.
Let the atmosphere itself serve as the computer to integrate all those small temperature differences, and use the resultant wind energy as your data.
I suspect our understanding of bulk atmospheric wind speeds is higher than our temperature measuring precision over the same bulk volume of the atmosphere. This would also automatically deal with issues like heat island effects.
A single Doppler radar site, could map the wind energy over thousands of square miles of land area, and millions of cubic meters of atmosphere.
There are probably a thousand other considerations that would throw a monkey wrench into the calculation of net wind energy, but perhaps the concept is worth a look.
Larry
I lost track of the Atlantic hurricane count at 5. What is the final tally and how did Dr. Hansimian do?
hotrod ( Larry L ) says:
November 21, 2010 at 10:27 am
Interesting thought — since winds are driven by temperature/pressure differentials, could the world wide average wind speed be a convenient way to measure the energy flow in the atmosphere.
For example:
In the hypothetical case of zero heat flow and uniform world wide temperature, there would be zero winds as I understand the mechanics of Hadley cell, and Ferrell cell formation. No temperature to drive convection so no air motion.
==========================================================
The Earth would still be spinning, and by looking at the vast mountain ranges that are more or less perpendicular to the direction of rotation, I see huge “paddles” that will produce vortices and swirls.
Temperature and pressure certainly contribute some of the energy in the winds, and maybe all the difference in energy between a busy cyclone season and an inactive cyclone season. But the vast majority of the energy driving the winds in my opinion has to come from the rotation of the planet.
I base this opinion on simple observation. I have three 135 gallon fish tanks in my basement. If I drop a heater in one without a powerhead (submersible water pump), there will be very minor mixing of the water, and certainly no current. If, however, I swipe my arm through that same tank, there will be waves for several minutes and any signal from the heater will be lost. I expect the atmosphere behaves similarly.
Oh my GOD!!! Global Climate Disruption has gotten so bad that the models no longer work!!!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH