RSS global temperature anomaly takes a dive

I haven’t covered the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) dataset much lately, since not a lot of interesting things have been happening with it. October 2010 though is a different story. There’s been quite a significant drop in the RSS global surface temperature. Here’s the data plot:

Source: ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/msu/monthly_time_series/rss_monthly_msu_amsu_channel_tlt_anomalies_land_and_ocean_v03_2.txt

More info on Remote Sensing Systems here

The drop from July is significant, and very steep, losing more than half of the temperature anomaly since then. The last time we were near this temperature was one year ago, in October 2009, when RSS reported 0.282°C The rise and the fall of global temperature this past year approximates a square wave. A moderate to strong El Niño followed by a strong La Niña is the cause.

The southern hemisphere has dropped the most. Here’s a much larger comparison plot between the Global Anomaly. the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere:

Global, NH, SH - Click to enlarge

The UAH Global Temperature anomaly data also reported a drop in October, through not as steep, and remains higher.

UAH_LT_1979_thru_Oct_10

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There’s the Death-Of-El-Nino drop we’ve been expecting. Now lets see how far down it goes.

Chuck

Mr. Watts,
The Answer to this is simple.
1. Lack of sunspots
2. A negative decline in sunspots since 2003
3. Tim used too many tele-prompters, deflecting heat from hot air speeches
4. All the Greenies surrounded the Oil Men at a conference and yelled, “Red Rover, red Rover, we dare the Oil Men over. George Bushes to the rescue..
5. They moved all the gauges away from graves and turbo- prop engines.
Paul
REPLY: Humorous indeed, but on #5 I’ll point out this is satellite data, and last time I looked there were no BBQ’s or parking lots next to the satellite – Anthony

tokyoboy

So we see a clear recurrence of the 1997/98 Super El Nino.
Temp plummet in coming months would be more dramatic due to the slumbering Soleil?

Bob K.

In 2nd sentence, “There’s been quit …” should read “quite” …

MattN

As a general rule, I do not fully trust RSS data. I do trust it more then GISS, but less than UAH….

Roy Spencer reports this on a monthly basis. The drop is not unexpected. It is about what I was expecting. The big question is how low will it go and how long will it stay down. If natural systems tend to achieve or attempt to achieve equilibrium this El Niño to La Niña and then to neutral, maybe or maybe not will, I’m sure, provide example.

Robert Morris

How low can it go? Serious question.

Australian BoM data shows the dropping temps in the southern hemisphere.
For e.g., in Western Australia (2.5 million square kilometres of the southern hemisphere), the BoM Monthly Weather Review (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mwr/wa/mwr-wa-201009.pdf) for September 2010 shows it was the third wettest September ever recorded, with the mean daily maximum the seventh lowest on record, the mean daily minimum about average but below average in the south west, and the overall mean 0.7 C below the long term average.
Western Australia is described in the media as drought-stricken. The south-west has definitely seen ongoing and currently well below average rainfall (possibly due to land clearing) but overall, the last few months have been particularly cold and wet in WA.

Richard Sharpe

The warming is still in the pipeline! It’s just resting and pining for the Fjords!

Crispin in Waterloo

Can any muti-talented contributor find a similar sequence of circumstances from the historical record? This would be a great time to show how your favourite weighting of Solar Radiance, cosmic rays, cloudiness, magnetic anomaly, ocean oscillations and so on is able to predict the temperature movement with some accuracy. Any mix is allowed, even GHG’s.
The solar guys have done a pretty good job of forecasting, ‘this is going to be a Dalton Minimum…” or ‘Maunder Minimum…” with lines and trends and such.
So come on guys: How far? How fast? Where will it stop? What comes after?
[‘guys’ is a generic term referring equally to the male and female sub.s.]

Pamela Gray

Could it be that the air just now got decidedly (and wonderfully) chilly over the skies of the North American continent, and in particular the air over the US? I thought that was the case since suddenly, all that hot air just simply stopped.

Thanks Anthony. I used the RSS data in my recent article, “Climate stupidity, part 1”,
http://funwithgovernment.blogspot.com/2010/11/climate-stupidity-part-1.html
I have been challenging the top warmers in the Philippines like Oxfam, Greenpeace and WWF, to a public debate. Still zero reply from any of them. I use scientifc data of course, like the UAH and RSS data.

sHx

Today, in Sydney, I’ll be going out in my winter outfit for the first time ever on a November day.

Bill Illis

Just a few charts. I’ve averaged the RSS and UAH temps for these charts.
First, the Nino 3.4 Index against the RSS/UAH average for the Tropics. Pretty clear where we are going. Another -0.5C by Feb/March.
http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/6326/ensovsrssuahtropoct10.png
And then how the Tropics versus the Global temperatures have developed over time. Global should get close to Zero by March.
http://img585.imageshack.us/img585/4914/ensovsrssuahtropglobalo.png
And then the RSS/UAH average global temp versus Hadcrut3. Almost the same line so it easy to see where Hadcrut3 is going as well (GISS is another story).
http://img641.imageshack.us/img641/1508/rssuahversushadcrut3.png

Patrick Davis

“Richard Sharpe says:
November 4, 2010 at 8:00 pm”
That would be all well and good if the pet shop owner hadn’t nailed the warming to the perch.
The east cost of Sydney is pretty cool for this time of year, set to continue all November. Maybe the heat is so pi$$ed off with the lack of balanced coverage in the MSN and has taken a long holiday.

An Inquirer

I have been wondering if UAH should do a quality check. Its calculated temperature on Channel 5 does not seem to be consistent with what has been happening to SST. The two need not move in tandem necessarily, but the divergence has been persistent enough for me to wonder. Both UAH and RSS have needed to make noticeable adjustments in its calculations in the past when quality issues were suspected/uncovered.

Tim Channon

Both have a significant residual annual. This can be corrected 2003 onwards
Don’t have the new data yet but by hand this is what comes out.
Not double checked the figures here (I’m asleep) but becoming very similar is what happens. (sic, oh well, have a chuckle)
Could show the whole thing later and obviously the whole story is more complex.
corrected corrected
uah rss uah rss
2010.54 0.49 0.61 0.53 0.58
2010.63 0.51 0.59 0.56 0.58
2010.71 0.6 0.53 0.53 0.5
2010.79 0.42 0.29 0.27 0.24

Douglas DC

Now what we need is a nice VE-5 or 6 eruption, Merapi, in Indonesia seems to be
heading for a big one -Got Coal?
No, I’m not wishing that, it’s just that Volcanism seems to be on the uptick as
temps are on the downtick

You guys have it all wrong. It’s because the election is over and there is a super-significant drop in hot air, not to mention BS! You will see a significant rise starting about January 2012 that will peak on election day in November, then drop dramatically. 🙂

Carl Chapman

Just weather:
Darwin, Australia, had the lowest November temperature on record the other day. Also:
November records were broken in Batchelor, where it barely reached 25 degrees; Katherine, 25.6 degrees; Pirlangimpi, 27; Delamere, 25 and Wadeye, 28. Jabiru reached 28.6, equaling its November record.

JinOH

Good to see you back in full force, Anthony. 🙂
OFF TOPIC: Again – glad to see that things at home have settled down. God Bless for the info!

rbateman

Pamela Gray says:
November 4, 2010 at 8:13 pm
The heat begins escaping in the N. Hem. as the sun goes down, and the S. Hem. continues to stay cool.
I say we are headed for a repeat of the 1970’s cooling period for starters:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
And as long as the Sun stays in it’s semi-dormancy of low to very low solar activity, the bottom drops out when the Atlantic flips phase. In the meantime, it’s downhill to the Dalton as the Sunspot Activity slides under even 1901:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/TempGr/uSC24vs13_14.GIF
Without getting long-winded, the Sun’s behavior is that of half-cycling (one side predominately blank) and well into SC24 and devoid of sharp upramp. Elevated Neutron Counts, low clouds, moved jet streams and shrunken outer atmosphere are on the menu.
Gobble, gobble.

While Sol isn’t anywhere near satellites it’s rays do their deeds heating surfaces facing the sun and the vacuum of space being very cold cools the sides not facing the sun down. Obviously the instruments inside need to be protected from this constant expansion and contraction not to mention any influence this would have upon any instruments measurements. I wonder how such systems can be ensured to not be impacted by the roasting sun Sol?
Space junk is another problem entirely.

Dave F

Anyone know what the StDev on the dataset is?

EnginEar

Depending on the scale of the anger of the Gods, there might have to be a Mount Merapi (literally Mountain of Fire) cooling added to the temperature records.

Ironically some might want a large eruption to cover up the current cooling trend with another eruption so they can just claim that “warming is delayed due to another volcano”.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Merapi
Mount Merapi joins yet another volcano getting angry: http://pathstoknowledge.net/2009/12/21/mount-mayon-gets-ready-to-blow-and-potentially-cool-the-planet-depending-on-the-size-of-the-erruption.

Dave F

co2insanity is absolutely correct. How could we have missed it!

LarryOldtimer

‘Tis a pity that we can’t determine the actual temperature of the air itself.
I have a reasonable degree of confidence in the temps of surface ocean water now, with data from buoys, but there is a whole lot of hot air in proxies, seems to me.

A C of Adelaide

This is starting to get really interesting.
Will RSS do another step up as in the post 1998 event, will it stay up on the step, or will it drop back down to the pre-1998 level.
Cheers

PeterT

Blimey!! you guys will need hospitalisation if it ever gets down near the mean again.

HR

I compared RSS with UAH and GISS and HADCRUT and NCDC using the KNMI climate explorer. It’s quite amazing. In terms of anomoly the spread over the different data sets is now about 0.5oC. Back in 1979 they were all reading approximately the same anomoly. In short since the 1980’s the five different data sets have managed to diverge from each other by 0.5oC. GISS has the highest (UAH is also up there), NCDC and RSS are the lowest.
If you were to use this number as a measure of the uncertainty in trying to measure global temp it starts to put the 20th C temp rise in perspective.
Anybody know of any good articles on this subject?

Spector

It looks like the last HadCrut3 land and marine global anomaly data was showing the same trend:

APR 2010   0.579
MAY 2010   0.511
JUN 2010   0.533
JUL 2010   0.534
AUG 2010   0.475
SEP 2010   0.391

It’s because the election is over and there is a super-significant drop in hot air, not to mention BS! You will see a significant rise starting about January 2012 that will peak on election day in November, then drop dramatically. 🙂
Not if they quickly BS into a hot war with Iran and Syria soon as they reclaim all branches.

ShrNfr

@pwl, it does not matter. All RSS is is a radio receiver that receives signals at the low end of the O2 absorption band around 50 Ghz. About the only thing that matter is the temperature of the “cold load” but this has been mastered for over 40 years.

pat

We noted the same drop last year in Hawaii. All of a sudden jackets were back in fashion after 12 years of warmth, no jacket winters. And in the last 2 days, it is cold again. I think fire places that have not been used in years (at 800 feet elevation you would normally have about 12 fires a year from 1955 -1985. Fire places are mostly found in older homes, built from 1880-1955 ), are going to be cleaned out and become part of the household again.

Richard111

Anything in the Argo data?

Casper
kalsel3294

I also see the conditions of the mid 1970’s repeating. Some observers, in Australia at least, have been comparing conditions now to those of 1974. In addition in 2006, whilst BOM were predicting an imminent La Nina, conditions in the Indian Ocean were repeating the unusual conditions that had only been evident in the IO once before, that being in 1967, a period of severe drought in SE Australia. The mid 1970’s went on to see 3 consecutive years declared La Nina years, 1973 – 1976, and currently, the existing La Nina is forecast to remain in place at least until early 2012.

“…there were no BBQ’s or parking lots next to the satellite…”
I’m sure they’re working on it, Anthony.

All things considered it should keep going down, especially as SSTs plummet (see Roy Spencers site). Also is there any data on cloudiness as here in the east coast of Oz we now have bleak weather nearly every day (average daily sunshine is running at least an hour below average atm) – it’s starting to feel like London (and this is in Sydney not Melbourne) and they reckon this sort of weather will be around till after christmas at least. SOI is still quite high (around +20 for 4 months now). I think we are in a regime change (this is what a cold PDO and the 1960s was like), with the added impact of a cold sun and yet to be impacted by increasing volcanism. Indonesia now has over 20 volcanoes on increased alert levels.

dixon

The magnitude of the delta T between the NH and SH anomaly seems to increase with time. Why would that be the case?

morgo

5/11/2010 sydney australia still have the heater on below avg temp all over nsw some snow fell on the alps queensland coldest temp since 1949 . my tomatoes have stopped growing ,rain and cloudy days for the past months it looks like a wet cold summer in australia could some body tell Al Gore to up the thermostat please .and our govt is going to bugger up australia with a carbon tax. If there brains where made of dynamite thay would would not have enought to blow there hat off

Andrew30

If the sea level (http://sealevel.colorado.edu/current/sl_noib_global.jpg) drops back to ‘normal’ would this be proof that there is no ‘hidden heat’ in the oceans?

KV

At the GISS Surface Temperature Analysis site, I’ve been checking some surface stations originally identified by the late John Daly as known to be rural, properly supervised, having continuous consistent data and set in a climatically strategic location. Most are showing significant falls ranging between 1.2 and 3 degrees over the last 5-7 years and the trend is definitely down. Some examples are Valentia, Ireland; Tiree, UK; Tromo, Norway; Korf, Russia; Akureyri, Iceland; Cold Bay, Alaska; Nome, Alaska; Cedar Lake, Washington; Eagle Pass, Texas; Punta Arenas, Chile; Kauai, Hawaii; Geraldton, Australia; Vostok, Antarctica; Mawson, Antarctica and many more.
These are in the Appendix to John’s excellent 10th May 2000 article “What’s Wrong With The Surface Record” at http://www.john-daly.com/ges/surftmp/surftemp.htm
The GISS map is clickable and easy to use. Check them out and perhaps have a look at similar long-term reliable stations in your own area of the world.

Kev-in-UK

PeterT says:
November 4, 2010 at 10:16 pm
”Blimey!! you guys will need hospitalisation if it ever gets down near the mean again.”
Now, now Peter – surely you must realise that that is impossible? The ‘mean’ will simply be adjusted and homogenised to a ‘lower’ value! /sarc off

HR;
I compared RSS with UAH and GISS and HADCRUT and NCDC using the KNMI climate explorer. It’s quite amazing. In terms of anomoly the spread over the different data sets is now about 0.5oC>>
This may possibly be the only field of science where modern technology provides the means for ever increasing precision, and yet the major measurement systems diverge. In every other field of science, as the various research approaches each close in on the right answer, they have no option but to converge. There must be some trick to getting rid of this divergence problem seemingly caused by declining precision somehow hidden in one or more of the datasets.

The Layman’s Count for October once again shows that SC24 is slow on the up ramp, at this stage looking like SC5 of the Dalton Minimum. When looking at the F10.7 flux values SC24 is flat and refuses to go much above 90, the EUV values that influence world climate are also flat.
The low Sun, coupled with the cooling PDO and associated teleconnections (NAO, SAM, AO etc) are not happening together by chance. There is a solar system driver behind it all.

charles nelson

Pat states above….’12 fires a year from 1955 to 1985′
I love it. He’s refering to local history, to the testimony of our older citizens, to easily checked records and reports, in local press for example.
I think we have the CAGW mob by the nuts on the science. They get that “rabbit in the headlights” look when they come up against someone with a basic grasp of physics and simply become abusive when challenged on that front.
But what about ‘history’?
I often ask warmists what they know about Greenland? And on one great occasion I was close to the internet when someone told me that stories about Greenland being warmer a thousand years ago than it is today were part of the ‘disinformation’ being put about by oil companies!
It was great joy that I took him to the Danish National Museum website and watched as he read and little flickers of doubt moved across his face.
I gently moved him on to the North West Passage and asked him why so many European Explorers sought it and why it was described a ‘legendary’ ?
I couldn’ t say I ‘turned’ him but simply by showing him information from such authoratitive sources that deflated the CAGW scare, I think I might have set him on the path to knowledge.
In recent times gathering knowledge has become the domain of professional scientists. And after they have interpreted that knowledge it is presented it to us via their friends in the media. I think they egg each other on.
Perhaps we should learn to trust our own eyes for a change. For instance the next time you’re flying in a jet check the temperature outside the cabin… minus thirty degrees or thereabouts. Hmnn doesn’t sound like there’s an invisible pane of glass trapping heat in the atmosphere after all.
Let’s look into our own history which is a rich source of information: talk to our older relatives and friends, check local newspaper records, literature, fiction even.
What about archeology, how did all those people manage to live in the Scottish Highlands, what happened to Timbuctoo, Ur, Angkor Watt, or Machu Picchu?
Let’s break away from the dreadful anal boxed in arguments that they endlessly recycle based on the very shakey premise of their pseudo science and look out the window, or look in your wardrobe, rely on your own powers of observation gather your own intelligence.
Ask any ninety year old farmer if he believes in global warming!
Ask any lifelong fisherman if he thinks the sea level is rising or the weather is different.
I remember a sit-com character, a hypochondriac who went around with a thermometer in his mouth constantly horrified by the readings he was getting. Warmists are a bit like that. The earth’s temperature is more closely and consistently measured now than it ever has been before and yet it still doesn’t seem to be increasing rapidly out of trend…if anything it’s cooling and that’s using their own data!
Scientifically we’ve won the argument. We now need to remind people of the climate’s fascinating and complex rythms: Dickensian Christmases, Edwardian Summers. The Dust Bowl era, the Summer of Love! Let’s ditch the guilt and enjoy our beautiful planet.
I recommend that anyone who is really worried about global warming watch the trend over the next thirty to forty years and then make their minds up.

PeterT says: “Blimey!! you guys will need hospitalisation if it ever gets down near the mean again.” … so the psychological warfare tactics are working!
Global warmers are having to imagine the previously unimaginable: “if it ever gets down near the mean again”!!
… I’m hope you appreciate us “deniers” learning how to recycle …. all those ideas from viagra spam emails trying to subconsciously implant the idea that things are deflating!

pauline

Thanks charles, that was a beautiful piece of writing, surely you should write a book. I have almost given up trying to make people see the other side of the global warming coin, but it seems to be a view deeply held and akin to a religion or indoctrination. still I can’t help trying to promote discussion. please keep writing.
(don’t tell me, you have written a book…if so do let me know)