I haven’t covered the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) dataset much lately, since not a lot of interesting things have been happening with it. October 2010 though is a different story. There’s been quite a significant drop in the RSS global surface temperature. Here’s the data plot:
Source: ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/msu/monthly_time_series/rss_monthly_msu_amsu_channel_tlt_anomalies_land_and_ocean_v03_2.txt
More info on Remote Sensing Systems here
The drop from July is significant, and very steep, losing more than half of the temperature anomaly since then. The last time we were near this temperature was one year ago, in October 2009, when RSS reported 0.282°C The rise and the fall of global temperature this past year approximates a square wave. A moderate to strong El Niño followed by a strong La Niña is the cause.
The southern hemisphere has dropped the most. Here’s a much larger comparison plot between the Global Anomaly. the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere:
The UAH Global Temperature anomaly data also reported a drop in October, through not as steep, and remains higher.
There’s the Death-Of-El-Nino drop we’ve been expecting. Now lets see how far down it goes.
Mr. Watts,
The Answer to this is simple.
1. Lack of sunspots
2. A negative decline in sunspots since 2003
3. Tim used too many tele-prompters, deflecting heat from hot air speeches
4. All the Greenies surrounded the Oil Men at a conference and yelled, “Red Rover, red Rover, we dare the Oil Men over. George Bushes to the rescue..
5. They moved all the gauges away from graves and turbo- prop engines.
Paul
REPLY: Humorous indeed, but on #5 I’ll point out this is satellite data, and last time I looked there were no BBQ’s or parking lots next to the satellite – Anthony
So we see a clear recurrence of the 1997/98 Super El Nino.
Temp plummet in coming months would be more dramatic due to the slumbering Soleil?
In 2nd sentence, “There’s been quit …” should read “quite” …
As a general rule, I do not fully trust RSS data. I do trust it more then GISS, but less than UAH….
Roy Spencer reports this on a monthly basis. The drop is not unexpected. It is about what I was expecting. The big question is how low will it go and how long will it stay down. If natural systems tend to achieve or attempt to achieve equilibrium this El Niño to La Niña and then to neutral, maybe or maybe not will, I’m sure, provide example.
How low can it go? Serious question.
Australian BoM data shows the dropping temps in the southern hemisphere.
For e.g., in Western Australia (2.5 million square kilometres of the southern hemisphere), the BoM Monthly Weather Review (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mwr/wa/mwr-wa-201009.pdf) for September 2010 shows it was the third wettest September ever recorded, with the mean daily maximum the seventh lowest on record, the mean daily minimum about average but below average in the south west, and the overall mean 0.7 C below the long term average.
Western Australia is described in the media as drought-stricken. The south-west has definitely seen ongoing and currently well below average rainfall (possibly due to land clearing) but overall, the last few months have been particularly cold and wet in WA.
The warming is still in the pipeline! It’s just resting and pining for the Fjords!
Can any muti-talented contributor find a similar sequence of circumstances from the historical record? This would be a great time to show how your favourite weighting of Solar Radiance, cosmic rays, cloudiness, magnetic anomaly, ocean oscillations and so on is able to predict the temperature movement with some accuracy. Any mix is allowed, even GHG’s.
The solar guys have done a pretty good job of forecasting, ‘this is going to be a Dalton Minimum…” or ‘Maunder Minimum…” with lines and trends and such.
So come on guys: How far? How fast? Where will it stop? What comes after?
[‘guys’ is a generic term referring equally to the male and female sub.s.]
Could it be that the air just now got decidedly (and wonderfully) chilly over the skies of the North American continent, and in particular the air over the US? I thought that was the case since suddenly, all that hot air just simply stopped.
Thanks Anthony. I used the RSS data in my recent article, “Climate stupidity, part 1”,
http://funwithgovernment.blogspot.com/2010/11/climate-stupidity-part-1.html
I have been challenging the top warmers in the Philippines like Oxfam, Greenpeace and WWF, to a public debate. Still zero reply from any of them. I use scientifc data of course, like the UAH and RSS data.
Today, in Sydney, I’ll be going out in my winter outfit for the first time ever on a November day.
Just a few charts. I’ve averaged the RSS and UAH temps for these charts.
First, the Nino 3.4 Index against the RSS/UAH average for the Tropics. Pretty clear where we are going. Another -0.5C by Feb/March.
http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/6326/ensovsrssuahtropoct10.png
And then how the Tropics versus the Global temperatures have developed over time. Global should get close to Zero by March.
http://img585.imageshack.us/img585/4914/ensovsrssuahtropglobalo.png
And then the RSS/UAH average global temp versus Hadcrut3. Almost the same line so it easy to see where Hadcrut3 is going as well (GISS is another story).
http://img641.imageshack.us/img641/1508/rssuahversushadcrut3.png
“Richard Sharpe says:
November 4, 2010 at 8:00 pm”
That would be all well and good if the pet shop owner hadn’t nailed the warming to the perch.
The east cost of Sydney is pretty cool for this time of year, set to continue all November. Maybe the heat is so pi$$ed off with the lack of balanced coverage in the MSN and has taken a long holiday.
I have been wondering if UAH should do a quality check. Its calculated temperature on Channel 5 does not seem to be consistent with what has been happening to SST. The two need not move in tandem necessarily, but the divergence has been persistent enough for me to wonder. Both UAH and RSS have needed to make noticeable adjustments in its calculations in the past when quality issues were suspected/uncovered.
Both have a significant residual annual. This can be corrected 2003 onwards
Don’t have the new data yet but by hand this is what comes out.
Not double checked the figures here (I’m asleep) but becoming very similar is what happens. (sic, oh well, have a chuckle)
Could show the whole thing later and obviously the whole story is more complex.
corrected corrected
uah rss uah rss
2010.54 0.49 0.61 0.53 0.58
2010.63 0.51 0.59 0.56 0.58
2010.71 0.6 0.53 0.53 0.5
2010.79 0.42 0.29 0.27 0.24
Now what we need is a nice VE-5 or 6 eruption, Merapi, in Indonesia seems to be
heading for a big one -Got Coal?
No, I’m not wishing that, it’s just that Volcanism seems to be on the uptick as
temps are on the downtick
You guys have it all wrong. It’s because the election is over and there is a super-significant drop in hot air, not to mention BS! You will see a significant rise starting about January 2012 that will peak on election day in November, then drop dramatically. 🙂
Just weather:
Darwin, Australia, had the lowest November temperature on record the other day. Also:
November records were broken in Batchelor, where it barely reached 25 degrees; Katherine, 25.6 degrees; Pirlangimpi, 27; Delamere, 25 and Wadeye, 28. Jabiru reached 28.6, equaling its November record.
Good to see you back in full force, Anthony. 🙂
OFF TOPIC: Again – glad to see that things at home have settled down. God Bless for the info!
Pamela Gray says:
November 4, 2010 at 8:13 pm
The heat begins escaping in the N. Hem. as the sun goes down, and the S. Hem. continues to stay cool.
I say we are headed for a repeat of the 1970’s cooling period for starters:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
And as long as the Sun stays in it’s semi-dormancy of low to very low solar activity, the bottom drops out when the Atlantic flips phase. In the meantime, it’s downhill to the Dalton as the Sunspot Activity slides under even 1901:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/TempGr/uSC24vs13_14.GIF
Without getting long-winded, the Sun’s behavior is that of half-cycling (one side predominately blank) and well into SC24 and devoid of sharp upramp. Elevated Neutron Counts, low clouds, moved jet streams and shrunken outer atmosphere are on the menu.
Gobble, gobble.
While Sol isn’t anywhere near satellites it’s rays do their deeds heating surfaces facing the sun and the vacuum of space being very cold cools the sides not facing the sun down. Obviously the instruments inside need to be protected from this constant expansion and contraction not to mention any influence this would have upon any instruments measurements. I wonder how such systems can be ensured to not be impacted by the roasting sun Sol?
Space junk is another problem entirely.
Anyone know what the StDev on the dataset is?
Indoctrination of our kids ….
http://www.aycc.org.au/2010/10/13/climate-change-the-latest-climate-science/