Major Winter Storm headed for the US West Coast

Snow will come to California’s Sierra Nevada a bit earlier than usual.

Animate this image >>>

Ryan Maue adds:  “as this storm pulls eastward, it will “bomb” out or explosively deepen over the Great Plains and move into the upper-Midwest.  The barometric pressure will fall to 962 mb 955 mb according to the most recent GFS forecast, making it one of the deepest northern United States continental extratropical cyclones since 1979 for the 30-day period between October 15 and November 14.  This will clearly be a historical storm and an extreme event: evidence of global warming La Nina.”

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
407 PM PDT SAT OCT 23 2010

…POWERFUL PACIFIC STORM TO BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA AND LASSEN PARK…

.A POWERFUL PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN…SNOW AND STRONG
WINDS TO THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND LASSEN PARK AREAS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY…TAPERING OFF LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CAZ068-241245-
/O.NEW.KSTO.WS.W.0014.101023T2307Z-101025T0600Z/
WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK-
407 PM PDT SAT OCT 23 2010

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY ABOVE
7500 FEET…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR HEAVY SNOW…AND BLOWING SNOW
WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR WESTERN PLUMAS
COUNTY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 6 INCHES TO A FOOT ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 7500
FEET IN WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY…WITH SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW
OCCURRING ON TOP OF MOUNT LASSEN.

* ELEVATION: ABOVE 7500 FEET.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AND WILL BE HEAVY
AT TIMES.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: LASSEN NATIONAL PARK.

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH.

* IMPACTS: PERIODS OF SNOW AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS CAUSING
BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES ABOVE 7500 FEET.
ALTHOUGH THE WINTER CAMPGROUND MAY EXPERIENCE RAIN…SNOW WILL
OCCUR ON THE ROAD TO MOUNT LASSEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.

&&

$$

CAZ069-241245-
/O.NEW.KSTO.WS.W.0014.101024T0600Z-101025T0600Z/
WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-
407 PM PDT SAT OCT 23 2010

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 PM PDT SUNDAY ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR THE WEST SLOPE NORTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR THE WEST SLOPE OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ABOVE 7500 FEET.

* ELEVATION: ABOVE 7500 FEET.

* TIMING: RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA
INCLUDING SONORA PASS ON HIGHWAY 108…EBBETS PASS ON HIGHWAY
4…CARSON PASS ON HIGHWAY 88…AND ECHO SUMMIT ON HIGHWAY 50.

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH.

* IMPACTS: HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
POOR VISIBILITY…AND POSSIBLE ROAD CLOSURES OR DANGEROUS
TRAVELING CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS
ACTIONS…

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL…KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT…
FOOD…AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

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106 Responses to Major Winter Storm headed for the US West Coast

  1. Robert E. Phelan says:

    Awww.. this can’t be good. During the last several years here in Southern New England I ‘ve been able to postpone turning on the furnace until early November…. had to fire it up this week… but that’s not climate, just weather, right? RIGHT?

  2. TERRY48 says:

    You can only talk about weather when its a warm issue. Early snowfall means nothing. Just natural variences we are told. Actually I feel it’s really a sign of things to come this winter and winters to come.

    RyanMaue: early snowfall over Siberia is very important for winter climate. It was a critical component to the record negative Arctic Oscillation last year and the brutal Northern Hemisphere winter.

  3. DirkH says:

    Ah, more CO2 than last year, will result in more snow.

  4. Jimmy Haigh says:

    I blame all that CO2 myself.

  5. Ian Mc Vindicated says:

    must be really heating up..yep..thats global warming for you .
    ( sic )

    Ian

  6. Michael Bentley says:

    Well,

    Here in Colorado we’ve been enjoying an extended summer. Of course its all due to AGW – but next week we’re supposted to get that storm hitting the coast now. But, I agree, that’ s just weather….\sarc off\

    Mike

  7. Ted Dooley says:

    We’re sitting here on the Sonoma Coast and we’ve already gotten about 2 inches of the 0.3 inches predicted for the day….

  8. Ryan Maue says:

    A case can be made pretty easily that the downstream effects of Super Typhoon Megi from the last week explosively invigorated the midlatitude jet stream. An atmospheric river of high-specific humidity air flows eastward across the Pacific aka the pineapple express. This is only the beginning of a brutal NH winter. My secret plots that keep track of forecast hemispheric/global temperatures show that the lingering El Nino temperature anomalies are long gone, and both hemispheres are now below the 30-year normal/climo averages.

  9. Early snow from global warming, right.

  10. rbateman says:

    I am in the region of NW Calif. on the track to Lassen Park vis Redding, CA.
    Been showering since yesterday, getting heavier.
    It all starts on the Pacific NW coast. Look out the rest of you.
    La Nina begins its rally, like a late-inning come from behind ball game.

  11. This could be a wicked winter in the US from La Nina.

  12. Mike Smith says:

    If the GFS is a “perfect prog” it would be an “Edmund Fitzgerald”-type storm.

  13. David Davidovics says:

    Behold the power of the Al Gore effect!

  14. rbateman says:

    ‘Winter’ type low pressure cells have been hitting the Pac. NW since this summer.
    The local meteorologist had made note of them as highly unusual.
    Now, they are packing.
    And so it begins.

  15. Jim says:

    *****
    Jimmy Haigh says:
    October 23, 2010 at 6:00 pm

    I blame all that CO2 myself.
    *****
    I blame all that CO2 ON myself! Well … me and Al Gore. Ahhh … me, Al Gore, and Nancy Pelosi. Wait! Me, Al Gore, Nancy Pelosi, the President and his entourage, the First Lady and HER entourage, and every actor in California. Yeah, that’s it!

  16. u.k.(us) says:

    Nothing like a big storm to awaken the, sometimes dulled, senses.

  17. tokyoboy says:

    A rather early snowfall is forecasted for Tuesday/Wednesday in Sapporo, the capital of Hokkaido, Japan, due to cold air coming down from Siberia.

  18. Enneagram says:

    Devils HATE warming…..this should make us think about….. Was Al Baby, a failure also as a “666″? :-)

  19. Gene Zeien says:

    Ryan Maue says:
    October 23, 2010 at 6:14 pm

    What are you using for temperatures to create those maps?

    Ryan: NCEP GFS deterministic forecast, 2-meter temperatures. Climatology is based upon the NCEP CFSR reanalysis, recently released which uses essentially the same numerical model as the GFS. As close to an apples-to-apples comparison as you can get with gridded historical and forecast data. The climo is based upon the mean temps for a 21-day centered period on the date in question, averaged over 31-years: 21×31 = 651.

  20. John F. Hultquist says:

    The low (now 969 mb) is off the coast of WA State and headed NE.
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin/latest.cgi?fronts-ir

    There is rain on the west side of the mountains and snow is expected by Sunday evening in the Cascades. We think of Halloween as the date to see snow on the eastward extensions of the mountains – between Ellensburg and Wenatchee. So it seems to be a week early this year – if it happens. Oregon seems to be impacted more than WA.

    The PDF, here

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

    shows the PNW to be wetter than usual in a La Niña winter but with rather average temperature. That is a scenario for snow in the Cascades as the air masses move of the Pacific Ocean. When the wind is more out of the north the PNW is colder but without extra snow. Let’s check back in March to see how this works out.

  21. Spector says:

    Just for reference, this link should point to the latest MM5 North Pacific Animated Forecast Loop for surface temperatures, winds, and isobar curves for the next 72 hours in 3-hour increments. Currently, (12 UTC Sat 23 Oct 10) it seems to be predicting that a new blob of cold air will come out over the arc of the Aleutian Islands.

    MM5 North Pacific Animated Forecast Loop
    http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d1_slp+///3

  22. Steven Mosher says:

    Lassen is a great Park. owned a place nearby once

  23. Hoskald says:

    ahhh, something wicked this way comes…

  24. Frank K. says:

    Ryan Maue says:
    October 23, 2010 at 6:14 pm

    “This is only the beginning of a brutal NH winter. My secret plots that keep track of forecast hemispheric/global temperatures show that the lingering El Nino temperature anomalies are long gone, and both hemispheres are now below the 30-year normal/climo averages.”

    I just ordered two tons of pellets for my pellet stove. Just in time, I think. (I live in New Hampshire – it’s rare, but not out of the question, to see snow on Halloween).

  25. Mike Fox says:

    The stuff that’s been coming down here in Eugene, OR, for the last three hours is what we call “rotten snow,” which falls out of the sky instead of real snow in these moderate climes (54ºF).

    Wunderground tells me we’ve already got 0.36″ of the stuff.

    I’ve been wondering when La Niña was gonna get herself all cranked up! The past couple of weeks have been pretty dry.

  26. Anthony Watts says:

    Thanks for the addition Ryan. The zonal moisture flow on this system is one of the strongest I’ve seen in October. It will be the perfect angle of attack for enhanced orographic lifting in the Sierra.

    The central pressure is already down to 969 mb

  27. Breckite says:

    Loveland Ski Area opens tomorrow (10/24) and Arapahoe Basin ski area (A-Basin) opens Monday (10/25). It’s snowing and cold in Breckenridge. The big storm hitting Wash. is on its way to Colorado. Looks like a little powder skiing for Loveland and A-Basin next week. A decade ago I recall the news media screeching that “global warming” would destroy the ski industry by now. Another false prophecy of the global warming/climate change/climate disruption alarmists. Snowfall has been above-average for the state of Colorado for the past five winters and is expected to be above average again this season.

  28. Pete H says:

    Thanks Anthony, just called my son in San Fran and told him to get his snowboard out!

  29. DJ Meredith says:

    We’re battening down the hatches here in Reno….snow clearly visible from last night on the mountains at elevations that look to be like 6,500ft and higher from where I sit at the eastern edge of the Sierra.

    As of Oct 19 we’d had record precip, at 2.2″ for the month-to-date, the highest since 1871. Last record was 2.14″ set in 1945. This is ruining our drought.

    Truckee Meadows Water Authority wants to raise rates because we’re low on water. If we get too much water they’ll have to raise rates because there’s …too much water.

    Here’s an interesting little piece on the Holocene climate in the Great Basin..
    http://gsa.confex.com/gsa/2005AM/finalprogram/abstract_89746.htm

  30. John F. Hultquist says:

    Spector says: at 7:13 pm
    blob of cold air will come out over the arc of the Aleutian Islands.

    Look for that to get blocked, roar east over Canada, and then dip into the upper mid-west of the USA.

    Washington coastal waters now have gale force warnings and the mountains above 4,000 feet (~1,200 m) may be totally white by Monday morning. Studded tires are not allowed until November 1, although the WA Dept. of Transportation often gets on these things rapidly. Makes for a busy time at places that sell and change-out tires.

  31. savethesharks says:

    Time to start up the snowpack machine on the Sierra and the Cascades.

    What a beast of a cyclone!

  32. rbateman says:

    Hey, we tried to tell them to enjoy the Global Warming while it lasted.
    Ya never know what you had until it’s gone, though some of us have seen both sides of the coin.

  33. Common Sense says:

    We’ve had a glorious fall in Colorado! We’ve been in that great place between air conditioning and heat for at least 6 weeks. However, for the first time ever, we have a conflict between mowing the lawn and the Halloween decorations.

    My flowers are still blooming and my tomatoes are still producing. The grass looks the best it ever has. Bring on more La Nina!

    Here’s hoping it continues.

  34. DJ Meredith says:

    GLOBAL WARMING ALERT
    …from wunderground, for Truckee, California….Sunday Oct. 24

    Sunday
    Very windy with rain. Highs 49 to 59. Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph. Gusts up to 55 mph. Ridge gusts up to 120 mph.

    Sunday Night
    Windy. Rain and snow in the evening…then scattered showers after midnight. Snow level 8000 feet lowering to 6500 feet. Snow accumulation 5 to 10 inches above 8000 feet with up to 3 inches elsewhere above 6500 feet. Lows 27 to 37. Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph decreasing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph after midnight. Ridge gusts up to 110 mph decreasing to 90 mph after midnight.

  35. crosspatch says:

    Current forecast for the greater Lake Tahoe area:

    Tonight
    Breezy. Rain and snow. Snow level 7500 to 8000 feet. Lows 36 to 46. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Ridge gusts up to 70 mph increasing to 95 mph after midnight.

    Sunday
    Very windy with rain. Highs 49 to 59. Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph. Gusts up to 55 mph. Ridge gusts up to 120 mph.

    Sunday Night
    Windy. Rain and snow in the evening…then scattered showers after midnight. Snow level 8000 feet lowering to 6500 feet. Snow accumulation 5 to 10 inches above 8000 feet with up to 3 inches elsewhere above 6500 feet. Lows 27 to 37. Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph decreasing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph after midnight. Ridge gusts up to 110 mph decreasing to 90 mph after midnight.

  36. jorgekafkazar says:

    Enneagram says: “Devils HATE warming…..this should make us think about….. Was Al Baby, a failure also as a “666″? :-)”

    Devil? Al Gore? Why, the man is a saint. Just look how holy he appears:

    http://images.berlingskemedia.net/node-images/892/1/620×355-c/1892650-al-gore-aflyser-foredrag-under-cop.jpg

    I think devils hated warm only in Norse mythology, where Hell was a frozen place of eternal ice & snow.

  37. Rhys Jaggar says:

    The same will happen in the Alps in Europe the next few days. There was already a significant fall earlier last week with up to 50cm at 2000m/7000ft in the Northern Alps. With further falls and temperatures low, this may be an unusually early start to winter in Europe’s mountains.

    Weather being the way it is, of course, the whole lot might melt before next month is out.

    Time will tell………..

  38. XmetUK says:

    “The barometric pressure will fall to 962 mb…”

    That should be “The atmospheric pressure will fall to 962mb…”. The term barometric pressure makes no sense in this context. Most of us are not concerned about the pressure exerted by a barometer. Try it in Wikipedia and the request is re-directed to atmospheric pressure.

  39. Jay Currie says:

    Blowing like stink here in Victoria which is pretty much the eye of this storm. Horizontal rain. But quite warm.

    It’s weather but it is wet and blustery.

    I blame Bush of course.

  40. Patagon says:

    And not only in the Sierras:
    http://www.meteoexploration.com/snow/snowmapsUS.html

    A lot of snow in the European Alps, too.

    At least AWG must be good for the skiing industry.

  41. Reference says:

    Winter approaching?
    Snow on the ground?
    Time to repost this National Ice Center IMS Products link.
    http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

  42. Glenn says:

    XmetUK says:
    October 24, 2010 at 1:20 am

    “The barometric pressure will fall to 962 mb…”

    “That should be “The atmospheric pressure will fall to 962mb…”. The term barometric pressure makes no sense in this context. Most of us are not concerned about the pressure exerted by a barometer. Try it in Wikipedia and the request is re-directed to atmospheric pressure.”

    You should read your own references before making claims.

  43. mike sphar says:

    I thought the “pineapple express” term referred to the typically warm flow of moisture from the Hawaiian islands area towards the West coast. This storm is moving directly Eastward from Japan to the West Coast following the jet. Pineapples generally bring very wet and heavy snow depths to the Sierra. Perhaps this is more of a pineapple modiki ?

  44. John Marshall says:

    I think I am right in saying that the Sierra Nevada range has the worlds greatest snows. One storm dropped 67ft of snow. Perhaps more this year.
    A cooling planet is showing what may be in store if we keep up all this AGW rubbish.

  45. richard verney says:

    Early snowfalls, or snow in places which do not usually experience snow is significant since it has an effect on the albedo. If there is a trend over several years, the change in albedo will begin to reduce the warming. It may also be a sign of changing weather patterns which may also have some significant long term effect.
    Hence stories about snowfall are a little more relevant than stories of about very warm weather.
    Of course, for most people, we are more interested in the weather than in the climate since it is the weather not the climate that impacts on our day to day lifes. Most of us are more concerned about it being too cold rather than it being too hot.
    I recogn that high winter fuel bills beckon.

  46. rbateman says:

    Common Sense says:
    October 23, 2010 at 10:13 pm

    The heat got fired up today (Saturday). The pumpkins got cut off the vine and everything else gathered up.
    It’s pouring with a roar and has been at it all night long. Nice decible level.
    I watched as the local meteorologist lowered the weeks temps and snow levels between the 6pm forecast and the 11pm forecast.
    The CCR song “Who’ll stop the rain” comes to mind.

  47. kwik says:

    This must be the Global Climate Disruption they warned us about!!!

  48. tarpon says:

    Global warming is coming earlier each year. Soon we will all melt, or freeze, or something.

    It’s tough when you predict calamity and the the opposite happens — LOL

  49. INGSOC says:

    Noaa shouts another scary scenario.

    .SYNOPSIS…A STRONG STORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TODAY
    THROUGH MONDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL IN THE OLYMPICS…GUSTY WINDS
    WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA…AND GIANT WAVES WILL REACH THE COAST.
    TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AND BY TONIGHT SNOW WILL BE FALLING IN THE
    CASCADES ABOVE 4000 FEET. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
    WEDNESDAY. WET WEATHER COULD RETURN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

    &&

    Never mind the 4000 foot snowline. We are having periodic flurries here at 575 feet!

  50. David L says:

    Proof of AGCD (anthropormorphic global climate disruptions). We must act NOW or the former global warming effect will result in more frequent and more destructive snowstorms!!!! We must throw civilization into economic collapse and save ourselves from AGCD!!!!

  51. Reference says:

    Snow on the way for Sweden.
    SMHI: It will snow on a broad front
    (Well it is October after all).

  52. PJB says:

    Cooler and dryer, mostly. Sadly, uniformity is an issue but I hear that Al Gore is selling climate bonds linked to just that. Or was that, conformity?

  53. Henry chance says:

    My kids will want some new Carbon Fiber K2 boards for Christmas. I like the carbon fiber poles also. Of course the plastic boots and apparel will be from petrol. We will need to make sure the rubbber carbon tires are in good shape on the Gas guzzling SUV. We save a lot of CO2 not flying in to Aspen in the big Gulfstreams like the troo conservationists use.

  54. Jeff L says:

    Storm to hit Colorado mtns as well. Time to wax up the skis! :

    COZ033-034-242200-
    SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/NORTHWEST
    BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST
    CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND
    WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
    INCLUDING CAMERON PASS…LARAMIE AND MEDICINE BOW MOUNTAINS…
    RABBIT EARS RANGE…ROCKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK…WILLOW CREEK
    PASS…BERTHOUD PASS…BRECKENRIDGE…EAST SLOPES MOSQUITO
    RANGE…EAST SLOPES SOUTHERN GORE RANGE…EISENHOWER TUNNEL…
    INDIAN PEAKS…KENOSHA MOUNTAINS…MOUNT EVANS…WILLIAMS FORK
    MOUNTAINS…WINTER PARK
    421 AM MDT SUN OCT 24 2010

    …WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM MDT
    TUESDAY…

    .TODAY…MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS 36 TO
    46. WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. CHANCE
    OF SNOW 20 PERCENT.
    .TONIGHT…CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING…THEN SNOW SHOWERS
    LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
    WINDY. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 4 INCHES. LOWS 26 TO 34. WEST
    WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH INCREASING TO 60 MPH AFTER
    MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
    .MONDAY…WIDESPREAD SNOW. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SNOW
    ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 12 INCHES. HIGHS 28 TO 38. WEST WINDS 20 TO 30
    MPH. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
    .MONDAY NIGHT…SNOW LIKELY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SNOW
    ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOWS 9 TO 19. WEST WINDS 15
    TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
    .TUESDAY…SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS 20 TO 30. WEST WINDS 15 TO
    25 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SNOW
    60 PERCENT.
    .TUESDAY NIGHT…SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE EVENING…THEN A
    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS 4 TO 14. CHANCE OF
    SNOW 60 PERCENT.
    .WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT…PARTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT
    CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS 20 TO 30. LOWS 7 TO 17.

  55. Jimbo says:

    England – 20 Oct 2010

    “Snow falls in Yorkshire – In October!”
    “Snow fell as far south as Yorkshire as drivers were stranded in cars following blizzards in Scotland as winter came early to Britain. ”
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8076667/Snow-falls-in-Yorkshire-In-October.html

  56. Staffan Lindström says:

    Enneagram, if you enjoy looking for Belsebub ETC, CHECK Jimbo’s Telegraph UK link
    above…

    Edmund Fitzgerald, biggest vessel to travel the big lakes from 1958 until 1971…
    Sank by a ferocious winter storm on Lake Superior in November 1975. All 29
    men perished. {At the launch, Mrs Edmund Fitzgerald needed 3 swings with
    the Champagne bottle!![Bad omen??]} Check Gordon Lightfoot at Youtube!!

    October 24, 2010 at 3:24 am
    John Marshall…According to Thestormking.com

    Sierra Nevada Snowfall Records as of October 2004

    Echo Summit, California
    Second heaviest U.S. 24-hour snowfall record: 67 inches (5.6 feet) January 4-5, 1982 1,2

    Mount Shasta Ski Bowl, California
    U. S. single storm snowfall record: 189 inches (15.75 feet) February 13 – 19, 1959 3

    Tamarack, California
    U.S. snowfall record for one month: 390 inches (32.5 feet) January 1911

    Tamarack, California
    U.S. seasonal snow depth record: 454 inches (37.8 feet) March 1911

    Donner Summit, California
    U.S. snowiest April: 298 inches (24.8 feet) April 1880 4

    Tamarack, California
    Sierra Nevada record snowfall during one season:
    884 inches (73.7 feet) 1906-07 5

    Top Three Snowstorms USFS Central Sierra Snow Laboratory (CSSL) 6

    March 27 to April 8, 1982 — 15.5 feet
    January 20 to 31, 1969 — 13.7 feet
    January 10 to 17, 1952 — 12.8 feet
    (Twelve other snowfall events at the CSSL have each dumped nearly ten feet, with a mean storm-duration of 11.4 days. Snowstorm totals greater than six feet are not uncommon.)

    Btw… reference that has happened {21-22…perhaps Uppsala 70 km N of Stockholm
    got more this morning…1-2 inches here in Stockholm area Friday morning! Record
    12 cm, 4.8 inches…that is snow depth… Oct 12, 1992… Could have been delivering
    morning papers 24H, but 12 were enough…According to SMHI, first snow in the Stockholm “normally” arrives November 20 or so,…That is of course from 1961-90,
    now, in a warmer climate, usually earlier, often in October! [Exception: 2000 , Boxing
    Day, late afternoon...]

  57. Tom in Florida says:

    Meanwhile, down here on the beautiful southwest central coast of Florida, it’s sunny and warm with low humidity. However, the Gulf water temp is around 77 F so the swim suit is packed away again til spring. (funny, when I used to swim at Misquamicut. R.I. any water temp over 66 F was considered nice and warm).

  58. Pamela Gray says:

    I’ll be driving in snow within the next 24 hours. Our mountains, down to the tree line, here in Wallowa County, are now as white as they were in the dead of Winter last year. I am snuggled into this big old ranch house on a quiet Sunday morning. My honey is soundly sleeping just feet away from my computer desk as the wind whistles, rattles, and blows around the crevices of cranky old construction and thin, poured-glass fragile windows. Not to worry. I stacked my woodshed with extra wood this year and have a full jug of Bailey’s just opened this morning.

    These hard winters are what makes this country and its people hardy and able to withstand the cold spells. And hard times calls for stout leaders willing to let us struggle on our own without the monkey government on our backs making it more difficult than it should be. So Democrats, stay out of my air and office space. And Republicans, stay out of my bedroom. If you would just leave us the hell alone, we will be just fine.

  59. Douglas DC says:

    Glowering wet morning n NE Oregon, got heat on expecting wood delivery. With that
    White Witch out there in the pacific, it’s going to be an interesting winter here…

  60. R. Gates says:

    Another change of seasons and another shift in the jet stream. Nice to get the weather report here on WUWT.

    Of course one storm and one season means nothing, but in general storms mean lots of energy in the atmosphere, and in the longer term, increased CO2 means more energy in the atmopshere and an acceleration in the hydrological cycle. This is a process the planet has used for millions of years to balance out the CO2 in the atmosphere through the weathering of rock which removes CO2 from the atmosphere and returns it to the oceans. Here’s a nice little paper about this you can read:

    http://www.karst.edu.cn/carbon/rockd.htm

  61. Jack "In Oregon" Barnes says:

    Southern Oregon Coast is getting hammered. Currently what is blowing in off the Pacific has a warm air feel to it… The surf crashing into the beach below the house is 2-3x its normal volume level. Max wind gusts around 30 mph hit when the storm arrived. The hatchery Salmon should show up now that the river has fresh water in it. Crab season kicks off in a month… You have to love this period of the year…

  62. Ben D. says:

    R. Gates says:
    October 24, 2010 at 9:22 am

    Right, what side was it that went on about how “snow was going to be a thing of the past”. And now colder temperatures and increased snow-fall are proof for global warming. I have no issues with relevant information, but the hydrological cycle is not in contention. What is, is the fact that we have 10-15 years showing no warming, and then to top that off we now are told that bigger winter storms are agw at their worst. If you had not said the opposite 15 years ago when we WERE WARMING, this claim might be taken seriously.

    Mark my words, continue being obtuse about it, and the more people will become sceptics. It was your outlandish claims that created me in the first place. So how many people are going to truly believe that global warming causes colder winters with more snow? You can wrap that up and deliver it however you want, but at some point people will realize how stupid it sounds. And instead of me, you will have three Ben’s….just wait I tell you. I will multiply and invade your internets one Ben at a time.

  63. P Walker says:

    Rain changed to snow here in Ketchum ID about an hour ago . Temps in the high 30′s so probably won’t stick around on the valley floor for long .

  64. Richard Sharpe says:

    R. Gates says on October 24, 2010 at 9:22 am

    Another change of seasons and another shift in the jet stream. Nice to get the weather report here on WUWT.

    Of course one storm and one season means nothing, but in general storms mean lots of energy in the atmosphere, and in the longer term, increased CO2 means more energy in the atmopshere and an acceleration in the hydrological cycle. This is a process the planet has used for millions of years to balance out the CO2 in the atmosphere through the weathering of rock which removes CO2 from the atmosphere and returns it to the oceans. Here’s a nice little paper about this you can read:

    http://www.karst.edu.cn/carbon/rockd.htm

    Can you tell us what an acceleration in the hydrological cycle means or is it just more bullshit to try to baffle us with?

  65. johnmcguire says:

    Pamela Gray, just back from hunting in your part of the state. My wife and I each got a bear and I took a small buck ( forky ). We were disapointed to see the devastation of the dear herds there, likely causes both weather and predators. With the wolves moving in to that area so heavily I dont look to see much in the way of recovery for the deer. Well Enterprise and Joseph and to some extent La Grande will miss the 1,000 plus dollars I spend every fall pursueing my favorite sport as I will move my hunting to areas of no wolves. In discussions with other hunters I have discovered my reaction is the norm as the fine hunting you folks have had in the past cannot be sustained due to the heavy wolf preassure. I will miss that beautiful rugged country!

  66. BillD says:

    The hot spell in the US midwest continues. I’m going out for bike ride and will need to bring plenty of water, with the temperature near 80F. My understanding is that La Nina makes for colder winters along the Pacific coast, but warmer winters in the East, especially the South East. Minnesota, which usually sees snow by now is still getting “shorts and t-shirt weather.

  67. Reference says:

    Staffan,
    My bad.
    21Oct2010
    Thanks for the correction.

  68. rbateman says:

    R. Gates says:
    October 24, 2010 at 9:22 am

    In your 10,000 sq ft ballroom, if one person were to occupy the floor, would you call that increased energy in the ballroom and accelerated dance cycle “significant”?
    Yet you say that one storm/one season is nothing in the very next breath.
    You have no consistency.
    Having lived through the 50′s & 60′s seasons in California, I can tell you this storm is exactly what used to be the norm, prior to the mid 70′s shift in the Pacific. Winter came early, and it got rough.
    What’s in your wallet?

  69. crosspatch says:

    “I think I am right in saying that the Sierra Nevada range has the worlds greatest snows.”

    Possibly, but the Wasatch Front in UT has some amazing storms, too. I have experienced a 10-foot snowfall while staying with a friend at Incline Village, NV a couple of decades ago. It took some digging out. Thing is, that was on top of about 3-4 feet already on the ground. It is “interesting” to go out on the front lawn (climb up to the front lawn is more like it) and look DOWN onto the top of a school bus going by, after they got the road dug out (they used front end loaders to dig it out and dumped it in a ravine nearby).

  70. Richard Sharpe says:

    rbateman says on October 24, 2010 at 11:31 am

    R. Gates says:
    October 24, 2010 at 9:22 am

    In your 10,000 sq ft ballroom, if one person were to occupy the floor, would you call that increased energy in the ballroom and accelerated dance cycle “significant”?
    Yet you say that one storm/one season is nothing in the very next breath.

    Yeah, perhaps the great brownnoser can tell us:

    1. How much energy there is in the hydrological cycle
    2. How much additional energy the additional CO2 will contribute? 100%? 10%? 1%, .01% …

    Then we can evaluate this acceleration of the hydrological cycle and figure out if it is worth worrying about.

  71. Douglas DC says:

    Jack “In Oregon” Barnes
    Having lived on the Ocean in Port Orford I do miss those big storms. Setting in my living room and listening tho the guy wires on my chimney hum steady then rise in tone.
    (usually above 60mph.) I lived out on Paradise Point-about 3miles from Cape Blanco…

  72. JRR Canada says:

    Now you too can measure Global Warming in inches.

  73. Staffan Lindström says:

    October 24, 2010 at 11:26 am
    …Reference… you’re welcome… Thank you for the google-english-Expressen link…
    Expressen and Aftonbladet, the two big Swedish evening tabloids, have “news” for about one week on their home pages, so you can easily be led to think that something
    that has already happened is still going to happen! In the case of Aftonbladet, a couple of years ago, they had scary stories about AGW more than once a day, I suppose both
    readers and “journalists” got tired of that…CAGW movement!! Listen: If you did not
    do anything ELSE wrong but: OVERSELLING….[ Of course you did...but nothing is
    so refreshing as a little false humbleness... ] Also tnx for the NOAA NH 2010-10-21
    snowcover link. From that, you can see that the Scottish eastern highlands and also
    eastern Småland 300-400 km S of Stockholm, elevation 100-1000ft!! Even middle
    and northern part of the island of Öland!! Elevation 10-160ft!!!!!!!!!!! As I wrote in
    “version 2″ out of 4, snow in Stockholm inner city 2 days ago, was wet but “fluffy”, so LT cold all the way down to sea level,
    with lowering SST, where are we going?? …………….

    The BIG lakes are even GREAT, SORRY!!

  74. Pat Frank says:

    Tom, out here on the central Pacific coast, summer ocean water temps are about 60 F. And you’re complaining about 77 F bath tub water. Shame on you. :-)

  75. BS Footprint says:

    I’m sitting here in the Sierra foothills of Northern California, Sunday, 10/24. It’s raining cats and dogs. Windy, too. Normally, we don’t see much rain here until mid-November or later.

    This is, of course, proof absolute of global warming climate change. As are all anomalous weather patterns.

  76. Ric Werme says:

    Look at the GFS at http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/model_m.shtml it appears the storm will reform on the other side of the Rockies and head northeast across Minnesota and Lake Superior. The lowest SLP I see is on http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_060m.gif at 956 mb! Sure seems like an Edmund Fitzgerald event to me. While I don’t have direct experience with it, The “Witch of November” is a fairly reliable event, a major storm that shippers try to have their Great Lakes shipping season over with before it comes. Several ships have not survived it, the loss of the Edmund Fitzgerald in November 10, 1975 is by far the best known.

    Please read http://www.gordonlightfoot.com/wreckoftheedmundfitzgerald.shtml

    The legend lives on from the Chippewa on down
    of the big lake they called “Gitche Gumee.”
    The lake, it is said, never gives up her dead
    when the skies of November turn gloomy.
    With a load of iron ore twenty-six thousand tons more
    than the Edmund Fitzgerald weighed empty,
    that good ship and true was a bone to be chewed
    when the “Gales of November” came early.

    The wind in the wires made a tattle-tale sound
    and a wave broke over the railing.
    And ev’ry man knew, as the captain did too
    ’twas the witch of November come stealin’.
    The dawn came late and the breakfast had to wait
    when the Gales of November came slashin’.
    When afternoon came it was freezin’ rain
    in the face of a hurricane west wind.

    More at http://www.shipwreckmuseum.com/edmund-fitzgerald-36/

  77. rbateman says:

    Richard Sharpe says:
    October 24, 2010 at 12:36 pm
    1. How much energy there is in the hydrological cycle
    2. How much additional energy the additional CO2 will contribute? 100%? 10%? 1%, .01% …

    Well, for one thing, the back of the AGW envelope defies rewrites Thermodynamics.
    See, they have 1 C02 atom per 10,000 other atoms, and that C02 atom grabs 1 bit of energy and then multiplies it 4 fold, thereby heating up adjacent atoms in a forced feedback. This creates the missing heat out of ‘thin air’.

    I tell you, these guys are missing thier golden opportunity. They should be busy perfecting the C02-H20 water reactor (Missing Fusion) and cranking out those units on the assembly line.

  78. Staffan Lindström says:

    October 24, 2010 at 12:22 pm

    crosspatch…1989 or 1990 possibly??? Warmest and less snowiest winters until 2007-08…If so, we finally know where the snow got stuck….here in S and mid Scandinavia,
    that is…

  79. Staffan Lindström says:

    October 24, 2010 at 1:02 pm

    BS Footprint…(and others) , have a look at WIKIPEDIA for expression of “raining cats
    and dogs”……….Quite interesting… Fishes are most common, it seems, as raining animals…

  80. Tom in Florida says:

    Pat Frank says:{October 24, 2010 at 1:00 pm}
    “Tom, out here on the central Pacific coast, summer ocean water temps are about 60 F. And you’re complaining about 77 F bath tub water. Shame on you. :-)”

    Yes, it’s shameful isn’t it. However, at my age I find no joy in “displaying my bravado” by entering into water that is uncomfortable. By the way, our summer Gulf temps are 88-90 F, now that’s true bath water and I might add that Great White’s are less likely to be found in bath water.

  81. Spector says:

    RE: Tom in Florida: (October 24, 2010 at 2:04 pm)
    “However, at my age I find no joy in “displaying my bravado” by entering into water that is uncomfortable.”

    In Seattle, I believe there is an organization known as the ‘Polar Bears’ that sponsors a mad dash into the frigid waters of Lake Washington each year in midwinter…

  82. Jack "In Oregon" Barnes says:

    Douglas DC says:
    October 24, 2010 at 12:42 pm

    DC, I currently live in the Ophir Beach area… My wife runs one of the local governments so there is a radius of how far she can live outside of town. It is beautiful here, but you have to be prepared to take care of yourself. We had mudslides in this area a few years ago, my neighbors said it was 11 days before ODOT had 101 opened up again. People are prepared here.

    Not sure if you follow the local politics, but it appears that Curry County may dissolve or file BK… Sooner than some people are expecting. The county is handing over services to the local citys, to provide in their region.

    Things are getting interested out here, at the edge of the world.

  83. R. Gates says:

    Richard Sharpe says:
    October 24, 2010 at 10:21 am
    R. Gates says on October 24, 2010 at 9:22 am

    Another change of seasons and another shift in the jet stream. Nice to get the weather report here on WUWT.

    Of course one storm and one season means nothing, but in general storms mean lots of energy in the atmosphere, and in the longer term, increased CO2 means more energy in the atmopshere and an acceleration in the hydrological cycle. This is a process the planet has used for millions of years to balance out the CO2 in the atmosphere through the weathering of rock which removes CO2 from the atmosphere and returns it to the oceans. Here’s a nice little paper about this you can read:

    http://www.karst.edu.cn/carbon/rockd.htm

    Can you tell us what an acceleration in the hydrological cycle means or is it just more bullshit to try to baffle us with?
    ______

    A concise definition would be:

    “The global hydrologic cycle, which can be conceptually described as evaporation of water vapor from the ocean, transport of water vapor by atmospheric winds to land regions, condensation, and precipitation of atmospheric water back to the surface, and subsequent transport, by streams, of this water back to the ocean.”

    I take it however, that you did not read the link I gave, nor probably would you read either of these:

    http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/climatechange/science/38408/hydrological-cycle-is-accelera-1.asp?unit=c

    http://drc.ohiolink.edu/handle/2374.OX/9428

    ____
    To say that increasing CO2 leads to global warming is only a vague description of the overall truth of the greenhouse effects of CO2. (Climate “disruption” is also vague) The acceleration of the hydrological cycle, which seems to one of the planet’s natural reactions to this increase, is not vague at all, and is just one more effect from this increase and like many of the effects of increased CO2, show greater energy in the earth’s atmospheric and ocean systems.

    But now that N. Hemisphere winter is approaching, I’m sure with each cold and snowy day, certain skeptics will point out how they prove AGW must be wrong.

  84. DirkH says:

    R. Gates says:
    October 24, 2010 at 3:05 pm
    “The acceleration of the hydrological cycle, which seems to one of the planet’s natural reactions to this increase,”

    Which would lead to stronger and more storms, right? Yeah, right. So we can’t be warming, otherwise we would have more and stronger storms. Thanks for debunking AGW in such an elegant way. We appreciate that.

    Oh, BTW, can a planet have unnatural reactions? :-)

  85. u.k.(us) says:

    R. Gates says:
    October 24, 2010 at 3:05 pm

    “To say that increasing CO2 leads to global warming is only a vague description of the overall truth of the greenhouse effects of CO2.”…..
    =============
    Don’t keep us in suspence, give us your truth :)
    Oh, and proof of your claims, would be appreciated.

  86. SS says:

    Wonder if this winter will be dominated by zonal flow…

  87. Layne Blanchard says:

    The Ice(storm) cometh.

    After getting slammed two years ago, Seattle lifted the ban on salt for clearing roads after failure to do so shut down the city.
    http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2008579442_snowpolitics01m.html

    The wind has whipped up and I’ll be driving home at 1 am. Nnnnot lookin forward to it.

    Bastardi predicted this fairly well I thought. He said October wouldn’t be bad, but then it would turn. El Nino was nice while it lasted. Now we pay dearly.

  88. Suzanne says:

    Ric Werme says:
    October 24, 2010 at 1:26 pm
    Please read http://www.gordonlightfoot.com/wreckoftheedmundfitzgerald.shtml

    The legend lives on from the Chippewa on down
    of the big lake they called “Gitche Gumee.”
    The lake, it is said, never gives up her dead
    when the skies of November turn gloomy.
    With a load of iron ore twenty-six thousand tons more
    than the Edmund Fitzgerald weighed empty,
    that good ship and true was a bone to be chewed
    when the “Gales of November” came early.

    Ric, here’s an excellent tribute to the Edmund Fitzgerald crew of that fateful November 10, 1975:

  89. savethesharks says:

    R. Gates says:
    October 24, 2010 at 3:05 pm

    But now that N. Hemisphere winter is approaching, I’m sure with each cold and snowy day, certain skeptics will point out how they prove AGW must be wrong.

    =============================

    No.

    You are deliberately conflating acronyms here.

    We are talking about CAGW and not AGW.

    And, no, a hard winter certainly does not disprove “AGW.”

    But the good thing is, CAGW has scientifically disproven itself at the starting gate, so your point is moot.

    Show me the evidence….R. Show it forth.

    You can’t because there is none.

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  90. Crispin in Waterloo says:

    R Gates

    You sometimes have good arguments but you often have bad math.

    Your claim that ‘there will be more heat in the atmosphere’ and that it means stronger convections and storms and higher energy movements in general is false. It represents the false claim that a warmer world will see more energetic hurricanes. If you raise the enthalpy of a system, it does not and cannot mean a higher turnover of energy through the system unless the energy input rate has increased, save that it is venting stored energy. Wrapping a towel around a hot water bottle does not increase the total energy in the bottle.

    Your argument turns on the general ignorance of people about the difference between the temperature of a system and the rate of energy passing through it and pretends that both are happening simultaneously with no additional energy input. It is widely claimed that the sun does not change much in energy input, so that means the rate of transmission of energy into the atmosphere will not change much either.

    Your further argument also has it that as the system will heat up (putatively because of an increase in CO2) so the quantity of heat in the atmosphere will increase. I grant that if the atmosphere heat content increases (for any reason) there is indeed more energy in the system. Your claim is that the energy accumulates because of CO2 increases. For that to happen the quantity of heat released has to decrease. But there is no decrease, is there?

    You picture this extra energy in the atmosphere creating havoc inside the system, while simultaneously venting heat faster from the atmosphere beceause of more powerful storms. It is logically impossible. If the system vents heat faster when it is even slightly hotter (a well established fact) then it is no longer hotter. Full stop. The heat leaves. As you disallow that solar input has changed enough to cause heating (say, temp rise from 1975-1998) then there is no more heat coming in, right? In short, if the system temperature rises briefly, it is immediately (within days or hours) vented from the system. If it hides in the oceans for a while, it is vented upon surfacing.

    If the atmosphere is receiving as much energy as before (the general statement from those opposed to seeing the solar variation as meaningful) then the equilibrium state will be the same energy going in as goes out, with a slightly higher temperature in the atmosphere. In the case of CO2, this is supposed to be in the mid-altitudes in the tropics, something already show to be false. But let’s continue anyway.

    If the whole system is hotter, then there is no relative advantage for air movement to a colder place because it is warmer there too. It will not ‘rain more’ because if the land is warmer, the rain will stop after the slightly wetter clouds dump their regular moisture load, down to equilibrium again. It won’t rain less either because the clouds have more total moisture (being warmer). That equilibrium takes only a matter of 6 hours to stabilise and happens each day.

    If it is the poles not the tropics that warm faster (the retreat position of the warmists) then the driver of N-S air movement is reduced in intensity. That does not increase the storm intensity either.

    The whole notion that a warmer world will create, simultaneously, increased vertical system dynamics AND hotter prevailing temperatures with constant solar input is simply bad math. It is characteristic of the warmist position that everything will be worse simultaneously – a thermodynamically impossible condition because unlike the name, there is no greenhouse glass preventing mass transfer upwards into the cold of space. As soon as the atmosphere increases above certain temperatures, it vents the heat into space by punching thunderclouds slightly higher. This is also well-established and not a mystery to anyone.

    As any brief review of the evidence for much higher historical CO2 levels and temperature shows, there is an upper limit limit to the atmospheric temperature (something like 24 C) no matter what the CO2 concentration. Surely you are aware of this?

    The alternative to your view is that if the atmosphereic temperature rises from solar variation, GHG changes, cloud cover drop or any combination of physical or electrical or radiative factors, the heat is vented by vertical air circulation. The only possible supoprt for your view that there will be increased storm ferocity (caused by this ‘higher energy level’) is if the input of energy increases, which means accepting (the truth) of solar input variation and its attendant physical changes on Earth. As the solar cause is flatly denied, the CO2 promoters such as yourself are stuck in a logical cleftstick from which you have no way out save to repeat increasingly complex thermo-impossiblities to the credulous. There is no point in repeating them here at WUWT. Wrong channel.

  91. Dennis Wingo says:

    Alas, I was at an altitude of 7843 feet today at noon and the temps were about 42 degrees. We camped last night at about 6380 feet and the temps never got below the low 40′s. LOTS of rain, but no snow in sight. No snow at Mammoth today or tonight either. Looks like the trees had a lot of new growth this year and when it does start to snow, it is going to be something but the predictions of 2 feet of snow I do not think will come to pass, at least not below 10,000 feet altitude.

  92. Dennis Wingo says:

    Oops, should have said the altitude that I was at was in the southeastern corner of Yosemite in the Ansel Adams wilderness at the end of Beasore road and beyond up the 4×4 trails that extend up to about 8000 feet altitude.

  93. Ed Murphy says:

    Well Mr. Gates the greenhouse effect doesn’t seem to be holding any warmth from Phoenix, AZ to Houston. It gets pretty darn cold at night.

    But then what happened to make everything atmospheric so dry? Could it be a lack of water vapor from a cold La Nina?

    But, on the bright side, Tom in Florida. I went swimming end of last week in Lake Eufala, Oklahoma and the water was great! Wren Lake in Illinois on Tuesday, cool, but not what I’d call cold. Lake Ray Hubbard, Texas on Thursday. It was perfect, totally awesome and I can’t wait to get back. The solar brightening of late warms the lakes up a bit by noon. Hope nothing big blows its top for a while to dim out the sun. I also dislike seeing a swimming season come to a close.

    Speaking of the sun, looks like its grabbed a higher gear now and the solar cycle is accelerating. Looks a bit healthier, less pekkish.

    Like an elongated cycle 20.

  94. Dennis Wingo says:

    Addendum. We found a portable US Forest Service Weather Station on one of the mountains just southeast of Yosemite today.

    http://www.panoramio.com/photo/42711416

    This would be a great one to monitor if you could find it’s frequency as it is at about 7600 feet altitude and will get snow very soon.

  95. JPeden says:

    The acceleration of the hydrological cycle, which seems to one of the planet’s natural reactions to this increase, is not vague at all, and is just one more effect from this increase and like many of the effects of increased CO2, show greater energy in the earth’s atmospheric and ocean systems.

    Congratulations, Gates, at last you’ve admitted that the hydrological cycle, complete with water vapor, constitutes a negative feedback to any alleged increased energy retention due to increased CO2 concentration. You should be feeling much better.

  96. Ian Cooper says:

    I don’t want to be the bearer of bad news for my friends in the Pac Nor West (I had a lovely time there in the summer of ’91) but our best forecasters here in NZ, METVUW (Victoria University, Wellington) put out a global MSL Rain Forecast, as well as many other regions besides NZ, and the forecast for the middle of next week looks like a repeat of the present, or something close to it.

    The thing that always fascinates me with the El Nino/La Nina events is how varied they are for different people in different locations. In 50 plus years of weather/climate memories and records we get far more enjoyment from a visit by the ‘Girl Child’ than the ‘Boy Child’. For west-coasters of both islands here in NZ, La Nina brings a change from the dominant westerly flow. This can lead to prolonged increases in sunshine hours, and temperatures. It can bring on an increased frequency for heavy rain months as just happened here in September (the 3rd wettest month on record for Palmerston North since June 1928). These wet months are often followed by prolonged periods of drier, sunnier and warmer weather. I guess while some for good reason dread La Nina, we down-under can’t wait!

    Cheers

    Coops

  97. R. Gates says:

    DirkH says:
    October 24, 2010 at 3:43 pm
    R. Gates says:
    October 24, 2010 at 3:05 pm
    “The acceleration of the hydrological cycle, which seems to one of the planet’s natural reactions to this increase,”

    Which would lead to stronger and more storms, right? Yeah, right. So we can’t be warming, otherwise we would have more and stronger storms. Thanks for debunking AGW in such an elegant way. We appreciate that.

    Oh, BTW, can a planet have unnatural reactions? :-)

    _______
    The hydrological cycle ultimately leads to the weathering of rock, which removes CO2 from the atmosphere, transporting it to the oceans. When greater amounts of CO2 are present, this cycle “accelerates” from the excess energy in the system. (You can’t get “accleration” of a system without the application of energy). This cycle in general acts over millions of years to keep the system in balance. Generally, CO2 levels keep fairly constant, or have for the time period of human civilization’s emergence. Now of course, the CO2 levels have increased 40% in just a few hundred years (virtually instantly in geological terms), and so the big question is, how sensitive is the planet to this large and rapid increase of CO2, and how will the natural hydrological cycle react to this anthropogenic “burp”of CO2? Some studies (as I linked to in my earlier post) would seem to indicate that the cycle will and has acclerated, meaning on average heavier downpours in places that get rain (think Pakistan this summer), but also increased dryness in areas that are already marginally dry.

  98. Dennis Wingo says:

    Looks like my prediction was right! Here is the webcam at Mammoth Mountain. The camera is at about 9000 feet and the snow line is about 500-1000 feet higher.

    http://www.mammothmountain.com/WebCams/MainCam/

    Another storm is headed our way later in the week. If you look at the pictures at the bottom of the page you can see (this will change tomorrow) a LOT of water at the bottom of the Gondola lift. It rained a lot there yesterday.

  99. Richard Sharpe says:

    R. Gates says October 25, 2010 at 8:06 am

    DirkH says:
    October 24, 2010 at 3:43 pm
    R. Gates says:
    October 24, 2010 at 3:05 pm
    “The acceleration of the hydrological cycle, which seems to one of the planet’s natural reactions to this increase,”

    Which would lead to stronger and more storms, right? Yeah, right. So we can’t be warming, otherwise we would have more and stronger storms. Thanks for debunking AGW in such an elegant way. We appreciate that.

    Oh, BTW, can a planet have unnatural reactions? :-)

    _______
    The hydrological cycle ultimately leads to the weathering of rock, which removes CO2 from the atmosphere, transporting it to the oceans. When greater amounts of CO2 are present, this cycle “accelerates” from the excess energy in the system. (You can’t get “accleration” of a system without the application of energy). This cycle in general acts over millions of years to keep the system in balance. Generally, CO2 levels keep fairly constant, or have for the time period of human civilization’s emergence. Now of course, the CO2 levels have increased 40% in just a few hundred years (virtually instantly in geological terms), and so the big question is, how sensitive is the planet to this large and rapid increase of CO2, and how will the natural hydrological cycle react to this anthropogenic “burp”of CO2? Some studies (as I linked to in my earlier post) would seem to indicate that the cycle will and has acclerated, meaning on average heavier downpours in places that get rain (think Pakistan this summer), but also increased dryness in areas that are already marginally dry.

    More hand waving from the great brown noser!

    What is the “velocity” of the hydrological cycle?

  100. R. Gates says:

    Richard Sharpe said:

    “More hand waving from the great brown noser!”

    ____

    I can only assume then that Anthony now approves of ad hominem attacks here on WUWT. But to use the definition of the term as I understand it, I would ask: who would it be that I would be “brown nosing”?
    ______
    What is the “velocity” of the hydrological cycle?

    Of course, I know you are having your fun, but in fact there are in fact several ways to measure the “velocity” of the hydrological cycle:

    1) Ocean salinity
    2) Stream flows
    3) Precipitation events
    4) Evaporation

    Then of course, “accleration” would be a measure of the changes in these on a global basis. Here’s a nice little fairly recent study on one aspect related to measurement of the acceleration in the hydrological cycle:

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/04/100416094050.htm

  101. R. Gates says:

    Interesting study recently completed relating to the topic of storms and extra-energy available and hemispheric differences:

    http://www.physorg.com/news/2010-10-planet-affect-storms-differently-northern.html

  102. Pamela Gray says:

    R Gates, you need, you really need, to live next to the Pacific Ocean along the Washington, Oregon, or California coastline. If you do, you need to get out more.

    Your climate change culprit is the ocean. We are under La Nina conditions. I should know. I drove through La Nina’s cold tears this morning. And me without snow tires. Why? Can’t put my snow tires on just yet. Why? It ain’t November yet (stupid ass rule that has nothing to do with conditions on the ground).

    But don’t get your knickers in a bunch. Don’t wax “climate warming”, “climate change”, “catastrophic climate change”, or “climate disruption” poetic on me. It has nothing to do with CO2. It has everything to do with La Nina. Cold La Nina inspired air mixing with left over El Nino oceanic moisture translates into cold, wintry, snowy conditions (file that under “duh”).

    I have to ask, do you have living grandparents? You act as if you haven’t heard the weather stories from past generations.

  103. savethesharks says:

    He won’t listen to your logic and reason, Pamela, because he is unable to do so.

    Figured that one out a while back.

    He is the reason NASA and the UKMet is in such a fix.

    Even though he is definitely not a scientist, it is scientists of his ideological ilk that are running things in the science community, so same difference.

    Its like they themselves are caught in their own runaway greenhouse effect, of sorts, where, so to speak, positive feedback is rampant, due to the human tendency toward cognitive dissonance….combined with the distasteful narcissistic homo sapiens trait of talking out of the rear.

    One day open-mindedness and reason will return.

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  104. savethesharks says:

    From R Gates Science Daily link on the acceleration of the hydro cycle:

    “These broad-scale patterns of change are qualitatively consistent with simulations reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).”

    =============================

    Oh…OK….consistent with the IPCC.

    Wow. I am exactly anti-concerned, then.

    Nothing more to be said.

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

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