Danielle now a hurricane

When Danielle becomes a major hurricane this week, Richard Holle’s prediction will be confirmed as exact to date.

I am going to stick with 7 major storms, 50 percent tropical storms and 50 percent hurricanes.
Chances are it won’t make shore.
Cat 2 to 3 Possible..
Paul

So, “48-hour formation potential” – formation of what exactly? A tropical depression, a named storm, etc.?

Estimated intensity of 3 mph less keeps this storm below hurricane category 1. Watch NOAA closely when it estimates/forecasts storm intensity of these mid-Atlantic storms without actual measurements from airplanes. It always increases the estimate above the hurricane category threshold when nobody can take a real measurement.

Stop Global Dumbing Now says:
August 23, 2010 at 3:17 pm
Dr. Hansimian’s forecast of 6-8 hurricanes appears to be on track.

so true, and you know, Dr. Hansimian would work for bananas literally, compared to all the data crunchers we have that can not even get close.
But you really never know to be honest.

Invest 96L (Red cherry drop on the map) may become Earl within the next few days…

The CO2-hurricane frequency/strength relationship has been adequately debunked. Don’t waste any time or breath on it.
The season is normal (within typical range) and some may make it to landfall. That we have reasonable warning (advance notice) is the key.
That anyone wants to make a CAGW issue out of it is just grist for our mill. 🙂

Tom in Florida says:
August 23, 2010 at 2:24 pm
When Danielle becomes a major hurricane this week, Richard Holle’s prediction will be confirmed as exact to date.
Reply:
are you referring to this one?
PostPosted: Sat Jul 31, 2010 3:04 pm.
Survey number of storms in August
Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2009 2:38 am
Posts: 43
Location: Concordia, Kansas
I voted for two named storms, one really weak one around the 20th to 23rd, and a stronger one later forming around the 25th and making landfall Florida panhandle close to end of month, 30th or 31st.
Or this one?;
August 16, 2010 at 12:39 am
Made a my space blog comment on the updated forecast I posted on WUWT “thoughts on the 2010 hurricane season.”
2010 detailed Hurricane forecast
Current mood: adventurous
Today I climbed out on a big limb, with chainsaw in tow, with this forecast?
There are four ingredients needed to make a large storm, available heat energy, moisture to change phase states to generate the low pressure zone, ion potentials to drive the “precipitation” (not just condensation), and a global lunar tidal effect to drive the wind patterns that tighten up, as the tropical air mass that becomes the tropical storm, moves off of the ITCZ and further away from the equator, the Coriolis effect kicks in and strengthens, to assist the formation of the cyclonic circulation along with the associated ionic drives.
We have been having three of these ingredients showing up in the three named disturbances so far. However the global “pole to equator ion charge gradient” is currently stagnating, all of the seasonal drivers of these shifts in charge gradients will occur later in the year than is the”Normal” (although nonrandom pattern of distribution.)
The solar cycle has been slow, but is starting to pick up as we approach the heliocentric conjunctions of three of the four outer planets that drive the global ion potentials that create and drive these large storms. I have posted a detailed forecast of the dates to expect these storms to be produced several time over the past year.
Due to the geomagnetic effects of the increased coupling, of the solar fields extended out from flares and coronal holes, as the Earth passes through the focused area that lines up heliocentrically with the outer planets:
Neptune on the 20th of August, the Earth will have an increased homopolar generator charge potential inducted into it, then relaxed over the next two weeks (till end of August 2010) that will induce the typical discharge pattern that generates the large flows of ions that allow the global tropical storms to attain sizable effects above cat 1 – cat 2 levels, because of increased wind and precipitation production, powered by the enhanced action of the opposing ion charges swept into the cyclonic flow structure.
September 21st through 24th 2010 will see the bigger set of conjunctions that will do a much better job of driving the intensity of resultant global tropical and extra-tropical storms, that form on the discharge side of the ion flux patterns, after these dates. No the season is not over yet.
The lunar declinational tides that peak at the culmination of the declinational sweep occur at Maximum South on 19th August then heads North with tropical moisture in tow until the effects has run its course by the 2nd to 4th of September 2010, is the window of opportunity for the first weaker outbreak of global TS.
The lunar declination is Maximum South again on the 15th of September 2010, ahead of the peak of charging of the Uranus / Jupiter heliocentric conjunction of the 24th of September 2010, and it should be in phase with the movement of tropical moisture laden warm air crossing the equator following the moon, as it moves North across the equator on the 23rd of September.
The same day of the peak charging effects of the homopolar generator as the Earth responds to the increased inductive effects carried on the solar wind to affect the coupling through to the outer planets from the sun out of a large coronal hole created on the sun just for the purpose of providing the magnetic field energy needed. This powers up the cycle of positive ion charging along the ITCZ, by pushing more moisture into the lower atmosphere, to then add drive to the ion discharging phase, driving the resultant outbreak of global wide intense tropical storms, that will occur post conjunction.
By the time the Moon reaches maximum North declination on the 29th of September 2010, the global ACE values will be close to peak for the year. Inertial momentum of the global systems should carry on the enhanced zonal flow through the next two weeks.
With the continual decreasing electromagnetic coupling as the Earth moves past these outer planets the severe weather activity levels, will drop with continued attempted recovery enhancements at the lunar declinational culminations, until by the time of the synod conjunction of Venus and Earth on the 29th of October 2010, we will see a last hurrah, then a slow shift into the storms of a deep cold NH winter.

She’s a very healthy looking CAT 1, no doubt.
[As everyone knows….no two Saffir-Simpson children are the same!].
Good anticyclonic outflow in all quadrants, symmetric, buzz-saw appearance of the central dense overcast, wisps of cirrus being pulled away at high altitudes and in all directions from the thunderstorms in all directions, as if with an artist’s brush..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html
With warms SST’s and favorable upper-level conditions in its path…
Whaddaya bet it becomes a strong CAT 4 within 24 hours?
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA

Danielle and future Earl are both currently projected to spin far away from the US. More disappointing news for those waiting for the second-coming of Katrina (their Messiah).
Blow, winds, and crack your cheeks! rage! blow!
You cataracts and hurricanoes, spout
Till you have drench’d our steeples, drown’d the cocks!
You sulphurous and thought-executing fires,
Vaunt-couriers to oak-cleaving thunderbolts,
Singe my white head! And thou, all-shaking thunder,
Smite flat the thick rotundity o’ the world!
Crack nature’s moulds, an germens spill at once,
That make ingrateful man!