NOAA to Issue Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

Here’s the last NOAA release on hurricane season:  NOAA Expects Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season from May 27, 2010. Now an update is coming. Still busy? We’ll see.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contact: Susan Buchanan 301-713-0622 August 2, 2010

MEDIA ADVISORY

NOAA to Issue Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

NOAA will update the Atlantic hurricane season outlook this Thursday and provide the latest information on the climate factors behind the outlook, including the role of ENSO (La Niña/El Niño) in the tropical eastern Pacific. This scheduled update coincides with the approaching historical peak of the hurricane season.

What: Media teleconference announcing the updated Atlantic hurricane season outlook.

When: Thursday, August 5; 11am ET

Who: Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center

How: To obtain the number and passcode for the teleconference, please send an e-mail to susan.buchanan@noaa.gov or call 301-713-0622

# # #

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68 thoughts on “NOAA to Issue Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

  1. We in the uk could do with some of your hurricanes starting.. We get the soggy remnants and they’ve already started on their ridiculous drought talk.

  2. What did they rediscover La Nina or do they still use Al Gore’s movie as a guide to when the next hurricane comes?

  3. Is such an update a normal, annual event?

    If not, can someone on the teleconference ask what the trigger for this update was?

  4. This is the kind of “prediction” you get from NOAA. These “predictions” come with regular updates. For an extra fee, each “prediction” comes with a “prediction” of the time for the first update of the “prediction.” (Yes, the series is infinite.) All of this is based on the very best science, of course.

  5. Dermot O’Logical says:
    August 2, 2010 at 1:03 pm
    Is such an update a normal, annual event?
    If not, can someone on the teleconference ask what the trigger for this update was?
    ==========================================================
    Yes, monthly, this is how they claim to be accurate at the end of the season.
    The trigger was the end of July.

  6. Anyone looking at the NOAA website could be forgiven for thinking it is based on Al Gores ‘AGW scarefest mockumentary’.
    The AGW narrative dictates that hurricanes will increase in intensity,duration and frequency so that is what NOAA predicted and obviously they got it wrong yet again, we could have told them at the start of the year just as we could have told them last year that just because the AGW narrative dictates something it does not mean it will happen.
    Next time they could save some money and visit Joe Bastardi and Watts up with that for a lesson or three?

  7. So the robust forecasts are wrong. Why get angry when people test the forecasts and find them to be faulty.
    Joe Romm is hotter than a hornet when no one reacts to his 2050 forecasts.
    The NOAA seems to be of somewhat low relevance.

  8. has anyone posted this?

    2 Aug: UK Register: Lewis Page: Boffins: Arctic cooled to pre-industrial levels from 1950-1990
    Late 20th century saw polar chill as CO2 rose
    New research by German and Russian scientists indicates that summer temperatures in the Arctic actually fell for much of the later 20th century, plunging to the levels seen at the beginning of the industrial revolution.
    The new results are said by their authors to indicate that solar activity exerted a powerful influence over Arctic climate until the 1990s, an assertion which will cause some irritation among academics who contend that atmospheric carbon is the main factor in climate change…
    The tree rings were probed by specialist ring boffins at Institut für Botanik at the Universität Hohenheim in Stuttgart, cooperating with colleagues in Russia and at the Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ)…
    The research will be unwelcome in the hard-green movement, as it appears to undermine the direct connection between human carbon emissions and global warming – indicating as it does that temperatures actually fell back to pre-industrial levels from 1950 to 1990, just as human carbon emissions were really getting into high gear. Furthermore, the previous warming trend up to 1950 actually began in 1840, before the industrial revolution had even begun…
    The paper produced by the scientists can be read here by subscribers to Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research.

    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/08/02/arctic_treering_cooling_research/

  9. Sarcasm off. Genuine scientists do not update predictions. Rather, they determine them to be confirmed or disconfirmed. “Disconfirmed” means false. Genuine scientists update their hypotheses in the light of disconfirmed predictions. That means that they take account of a false prediction and remove from their set of hypotheses some hypothesis that they believe to be falsified. After replacing it, they can make new predictions. Apparently, that is what NOAA is doing. The only people who update “predictions” are spin masters, aka front men. I wonder if NOAA would share with us just how they updated their hypotheses? That would be called “transparency.”

  10. “NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.”

    correction

    Tries to “understand”

    Wishes they could “predict”

    Please stick with plankton counting.

  11. There has not been and there won’t be any hurricanes this season. Just a few tropical depressions being hurriedly baptized, while still in nature’s womb, by NOAA. This is unusual for a La Nina (as they knew her) but now southern atlantic ocean and gulf waters are cold.

  12. “NOAA will update the Atlantic hurricane season outlook this Thursday and provide the latest information on the climate factors behind the outlook, including the role of ENSO (La Niña/El Niño) in the tropical eastern Pacific. This scheduled update coincides with the approaching historical peak of the hurricane season.”

    It’s “worse than we thought”! “Climate factors” are changing so fast that they need to be updated every two months! Of course, if our best climate experts can’t project the climate past 10 weeks, one might be skeptical of their capacity to project forward a century or three, but only if you are ignorant, stupid, and suffering from a malignant cognitive disorder.

  13. Wasn’t there a monkey making predictions as well? Does he get a chance to revise his numbers? Or was he doing better than NOAA in the first place.

  14. Maybe they are just going to show a clip of Gilda Radner as Emily Litella saying,
    “Never mind”

  15. It’ll certainly be interesting to be given an opportunity to examine the science/ideology ratio of the predictions.

  16. Wasn’t there a chimpanzee offering an alternative forecast a while back? How is it doing compared to the NOAA one?

    Kindest Regards

  17. I had planned to issue my prediction in November. Anyone have a problem with that?

    (You can do that if you’re a climate scientist, you know. I’m not a climate scientist but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.)

  18. It’s called “we’re going to have 15 hurricanes! Ummmm….nope 10 hurricanes…..ummmm….how about 7 hurricanes?…..would you believe 2 hurricanes?”

  19. Interesting to see how much it might have changed from the previous.

    Usually, only hurricane and tropical depressions that come ashore in Texas or Mexico affect the Southern Plains. Short-term forecasts can be useful, long-term not so much. This is where I check from time to time:

    National Hurricane Center

    OK S.

  20. I’m waiting for NOAA’s December 2010 prediction for the 2010 hurricane season. I have some hope that one will be a bit more accurate.

  21. NOAA (Needless Outrage And Alarmism) shoots high first and asks questions later….

    As part of the Post-normal paradigm, and in line with the use of the 2 x 4 on the donkey…”Fust, ya gots ta git thar attention!”

  22. The rest of this hurricane season will be dominated by the Cape Verde storms as normal. There are 120 days left in this season. Waves off of Africa trigger the Cape Verde storms. These waves come off that continent at about one every 3.5 days. Therefore there will be less than 35 more waves during the season. Of these about 10 to 15% develop into storms, so we will see about 5 or 6 more Cape Verde storms. A bunch of forecasters will be wiping egg off their collective faces soon.

  23. Whatever happened to that monkey in a labcoat that predicted hurricanes before the season started? Think he predicted something like 6-8?

    Would really be funny if he turned out to be closer then NOAA.

  24. Dr. James Hansimian’s employment by NOAA has been terminated, and hurricane predictions will now be from Paul, the German Octopus, world’s preeminent predictor.

  25. Geez, what a ruckus over nothing! Calm down everybody.

    All NOAA is doing is updating its outlook. People want to know the latest prediction. Suppose you listen to the weatherman on Sunday night and he gives his long-range forecast for the week. Now it’s Wednesday night and you want to know what Thursday’s weather is going to be like — do you really want the stale Sunday forecast, or would you rather the weatherman give you a revised forecast based on current readings?

    If you’re interested in how accurate NOAA’s long-range predictions are, they’re still there. Just like the weatherman, NOAA has a better chance of being right, or at least close, if they’re not looking too far ahead.

  26. These guys might soon end up like the UK’s Met Office. Abandon seasonal forecasts (due to inbuilt model bias). Gavin Schmidt and Michael Mann have said :

    “Modellers have an inbuilt bias towards forced climate change because the causes and effect are clear.”

    Source: Michael Mann [pdf] :o)

    General circulation modelling of Holocene climate variability

  27. Of course Dr. Mann made a prediction this year. He predicted 23 named storms. I wonder how he views it so far and if he will revise his prediction soon ?

  28. Where is Paul the octopus when you need him (it)? With 8 tentacles, just think of the various things that he could predict, saving time and money to allow for even more “research”.

    //sarcoff

  29. I live in SW Florida and am currently going naked on insurance. My hurricane prediction last year was zero hurricanes hitting the the US. I was 100% accurate. This year I predicted zero to two minimal hurricanes. I may have to change this years prediction to zero, period.

  30. Doesn’t it seem like a storm gets a name as soon as it meets the threshold, by the most generous assessment, even if it falls below the threshold an hour later? Did that happen 30 years ago? How can we compare hurricane seasons and the number of named storms? Every number coming out of NOAA needs a date range.

  31. I haven’t changed mine;
    Richard Holle
    24 July 2010

    The real center of circulation (making land fall in Huston today) [it will be back in 109 days ready to talk business] was West of the rain band that they called Bonnie, Because there are no major outer planets having a synod conjunction with the earth until mid August, the precipitation was “missing” from the center of circulation, as the global circuit is still in the ion charge mode, it increases global precipitation rates post conjunctions. (Remember the flash floods in March, April?)

    The real hurricane season will kick in after the first of three synod conjunctions with Neptune on the 20th of August, then really get crazy just after the combined synod conjunctions with both Jupiter and Uranus on the 21st, and each other on the 24th of August. There might be enough power in the solar wind disruption coming on the 21st to 24th to shut down some Power grids, with the geomagnetic storms they will probably generate.

    I would expect to see an increase in background seismic activity 30 days both sides of the double conjunction. Just wait till they start saying the AGW caused all of the sudden activity right on (planetary scheduled) time.

    April 6th forecast;
    Season starts off slow but winds up big starting with first small Hurricane Aug 14-24th,
    another three much bigger ones from September 13th through 28th, and after thoughts first and last weeks of October, for a total of
    8 real named and three more fudged but really almost too weak
    3 hurricanes
    3 total, 1 making landfall in Florida, 2 across Georgia/ Alabama from the gulf side, mid September.

  32. Typo found;
    The real hurricane season will kick in after the first of three synod conjunctions with Neptune on the 20th of August, then really get crazy just after the combined synod conjunctions with both Jupiter and Uranus on the 21st, and each other on the 24th of

    [September] not “August”.

    There might be enough power in the solar wind disruption coming on the 21st to 24th to shut down some Power grids, with the geomagnetic storms they will probably generate.

  33. NOAA is now predicting one month-long gianormous hurricane that will form over Washington DC on Octobe 1, sit there and grind for a month, and leave a month’s worth of rubbish in the runoff.

  34. HaroldW says:
    August 2, 2010 at 3:46 pm
    Geez, what a ruckus over nothing! Calm down everybody.
    ====================================================
    Because a prediction is not a forecast.
    Because insurance companies are listening.
    But your analogy is perfect, NOAA predicting hurricanes that far in advance is like asking them if it’s going to rain on this same day in 2 months.
    But because they claim accuracy buy adjusting their predictions every month, when they start out too many months in advance, they end up looking like fools that don’t have a clue what they are talking about.

    Using your analogy, NOAA should only predict hurricanes three days in advance.
    But they can’t even predict strength and steering three days in advance.

  35. mike sphar says: @ 3:14

    All good points but what you ought to do next is examine these things:

    Temperatures of the ocean to a depth of a couple of hundred feet. Is the water warm enough to support big storms? After a storm passes will there still be enough warm water there or will it be cooled by the mixing and thus not support another storm with the next wave coming through?

    Wind shear above the near surface waters. I look here:

    http://spaghettimodels.com/

    at Mike’s weather page with lots of links, such as

    Are the waves coming off the continent far enough north of the Equator such that the Coriolis deflection helps to put these “eastern waves” into cyclonic motion?

    These are the things that contribute to the

    “…Therefore there will be less than 35 more waves during the season. Of these about 10 to 15% develop into storms, so we will see about 5 or 6 more Cape Verde storms. …”

    If one or more of the requirements are not in place (or wind shear is) then the waves will not develop and reach hurricane force.

    Perhaps NOAA will enlighten us on Thursday.

  36. Jimmy Haigh says:
    August 2, 2010 at 3:41 pm
    They’ll hindcast this year’s forecast next year and they’ll get it spot on.

    No, they will adjust the data upwads then first

  37. Why not just tell us what it is now? I guess they want to have an official forecast that will allow them to erase the one they have on their website.

  38. Here’s the original prediction from May 27:

    Some excerpts:

    We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity this season:

    * 14-23 Named Storms,
    * 8-14 Hurricanes
    * 3-7 Major Hurricanes
    * An ACE range of 155%-270% of the median.

    1. Expected 2010 activity

    Known climate signals and evolving oceanic and atmospheric conditions, combined with dynamical model forecasts, indicate a high likelihood of above normal activity during the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. This outlook calls for an 85% chance of an above-normal season, only a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and a 5% chance of a below normal season.

    The season is still young, but so far it’s been a dud…

  39. I’m looking for them to adjust downward the number of named storms in decades prior to 1979.

  40. Maybe they can entice Paul the octopus out of retirement to give them a hand on their predictions.

  41. Colorado State’s Klotzbach and Gray’s next update will be Aug 4. Normally NOAA tries to beat them to the punch by a couple days. Perhaps this time they’re trying to get people to focus on their forecast and forget about CSU.

    I think the next update will be in December and be a combined retrospective and first look at 2011. Ah – as I thought, they also have a series of two-week forecasts to cover the serious part of the hurricane season, see http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Two_Week_Forecasts.html

    It will be interesting to see what they say about water temps. I think Saharan dust may have blown through absorbing sunlight in the atmosphere and reducing the amount of sunlight that reaches the ocean surface. Joe D’Aleo had some comments about that in his July lull post.

    BTW, I don’t see these updates (or solar activity changes) and unfair do-overs. I fully expect that the weather forecast for this Friday will change twice a day up to Friday. Hurricane-wise, ENSO developments and dust are hard to forecast, so I expect the forecast will change during the season.

    Note for Theo Goodwin: Chill! CSU has an archive of past forecasts. If you want to compare them versus what happened, please do. Klotzbach/Gray do that themselves, so your effort might be a waste of time, or it might make for an interesting counter point. I don’t understand why you’re getting so upset over that. Is it hard to find old NOAA forecasts? They’re never as detailed as the CSU forecasts, so I generally skim the NOAA forecasts, but read the CSU forecasts.

  42. After carefully re-examining the data with improved science and modeling techniques, the NHC predicts there will be not nearly as many hurricanes in July 2010 and the first 5 days of August 2010 as we previously thought. The total number of hurricanes in 2010 may also be smaller. If anyone sees an Atlantic hurricane, please call us.

    This proves, of course, that Anthropogenic Global Warming is real and serious.

  43. Sonicfrog says:
    August 2, 2010 at 1:10 pm

    In the meantime, the wonderful EPA is going to pass new rules regulating…. Dust!

    Hey, California is once again at the forefront of trends. How do you like us now America??????
    ___________________________________________________________
    Thanks for the alert. I am passing it on to the farmer sites. Between Premises ID, Livestock tracing, the bogus and draconian”Food Safety” bills not to mention Cap and trade I really think the government is deliberately killing the country.

    This comes from the Ag Journal, Billings, Montana: “At a recent ceremony at the White House, Vice President and presidential candidate Al Gore let slip what many have long believed was his real intention as regards to U.S. agriculture.

    “While presenting a national award to a Colorado FFA member, Gore asked the student what his/her life plans were. Upon hearing that the FFA member wanted to continue on in production agriculture, Gore reportedly replied that the young person should develop other plans because our production agriculture is being shifted out of the U.S. to the Third World.”

    I think that sums up the plans the of the current government too. Our livelihoods are deliberately “being shifted out of the U.S. to the Third World.”

    “My name shall be carved in stone alongside the great traitors: Lucifer, Judas, and Arnold.” – Benedict Arnold

  44. Can we expect to see NOAA admit its utter failure to predict with any degree of accuracy? Will NOAA issue a fulsome apology and revise its narrative? This organisation has access to lavish funding and state of the art facilities and although mistakes will be made in any prediction the sheer scale of the errors can only mean they are sticking to a script rather than finding the truth.
    This is indicative of climate science in general, while they stick to a narrative without regard to actual reality and while they stick doggedly to their wildly inaccurate models then climate science will quickly degenerate into nothing more than a cult.
    I see a stubborn refusal to face up to and address facts and information that contradict their core beliefs and whilst group think prejudice is understandable in a church it is unforgivable in a scientific institution in receipt of public funding.

  45. mike sphar says:
    August 2, 2010 at 3:14 pm

    The rest of this hurricane season will be dominated by the Cape Verde storms as normal. There are 120 days left in this season. Waves off of Africa trigger the Cape Verde storms. These waves come off that continent at about one every 3.5 days. Therefore there will be less than 35 more waves during the season. Of these about 10 to 15% develop into storms, so we will see about 5 or 6 more Cape Verde storms. A bunch of forecasters will be wiping egg off their collective faces soon.
    ____________________________________________________________________
    So it looks like you think the chimp will win then.

    Think-Tank Says Trained Chimp Can Predict Hurricanes Better Than NOAA… And Puts it to the Test: Posted on May 18, 2010 by Anthony Watts

    Chimp Predicts 6-8 Atlantic Hurricanes in 2010

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/18/think-tank-says-trained-chimp-can-predict-hurricanes-better-than-noaa%e2%80%a6-and-puts-it-to-the-test/

  46. This just a sort of commentary. Hurricanes, while destructive to human and avian habitation, are really necessary for the distribution of rainfall into the interiors of Asia, North America, India, and South America. This is not a trivial thing. Without hurricanes, there would be no agriculture possible in the interior of these land masses. I often make light of the stupidity of the neo-environmentalists and the Warmists. But I now worry that they may be deranged or seriously outside the scope of general science or ecology.

  47. NOAA will update the Atlantic hurricane season outlook this Thursday and provide the latest information on the climate factors behind the outlook, including the role of ENSO (La Niña/El Niño) in the tropical eastern Pacific.

    NOAA is already setting the stage. If their predictions fall flat in the Atlantic, they’ll just pull some examples from the Pacific and claim they got the numbers right, but were only off in their locations…

  48. Ric Werme says:
    August 2, 2010 at 7:39 pm
    “…It will be interesting to see what they say about water temps. I think Saharan dust may have blown through absorbing sunlight in the atmosphere and reducing the amount of sunlight that reaches the ocean surface. Joe D’Aleo had some comments about that in his July lull post…”

    The connection to Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is interesting, Ric, and I dug up a bit of info on the links below. It seems it also fertilises plankton blooms and well as suppressing hurricane formation…

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/videos/2007/0801-dust_storms_and_hurricanes.htm

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/07/100706103414.htm

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/02/080206192436.htm

  49. Pingo says:
    August 2, 2010 at 1:01 pm
    We in the uk could do with some of your hurricanes starting.. We get the soggy remnants and they’ve already started on their ridiculous drought talk.

    Speak for yourself Pingo, Scotland has had another wet summer, rainfall in July was twice the normal average. Send me some empty bottles ;)

  50. if it turns out to be busier, buy more plywood …

    if it turns out to be less busy, I hope NOAA pays proper respect to Dr. James Hansimian, whose forecasting methods predicted less from the beginning …

  51. Reading their June and July reports, NOAA are claiming an ACE of “111% of the long term mean” and by counting Alex in both June and July they can claim that both months are above “normal” (Cat 2 hurricanes only occur once every five years in June and two TS/H is above normal in July).

    At the same time, I have some sympathy with them as I think there is a lot of pressure to over-emphasize in order to make sure people are prepared. I remember (very) well a big storm in the UK in 1987 where the UK met office told people not to worry as it was going to pass over France and they got a lot of stick (when it hit Brighton and went on up through London) for not giving people any warning. I am sure this has coloured their forecasts since then.

    I seem to see this a lot in local extreme weather alerts in the US and Canada – the forecasters will always err on the side of caution and give a worst case scenario so that people will take precautions. Maybe Anthony and/or other professional forecasters can weigh in on this – is there a “cover your a**” feeling to provide worst cases so that people are not taken by surprise? What is worse – a worst case scenario that doesn’t occur or a best estimate if significantly worse conditions develop later?

    Not trying to let plainly OTT CAGW predictions off the hook, but a bit of consideration for the pressures on forecasters is called for I think.

  52. The chip predicted 6-8 hurricanes vs. NOAA prediction of 8-14. Since we are on track for 2 or 3, looks like the chipm will be closest (although not very close at all)

  53. I’m going to buck against the consensus and predict that NOAA will on Thursday continue to predict a fairly high level of storms. After all, the Atlantic is still warmer than normal, and La Nina developing is supposed to reduce the interference from that side.

    And let’s face it, the CO2 brigade has had such bad luck recently (I’m not going to get into heat waves versus cold waves across Eurasia) that they are probably due some “good luck”. So I predict a whopper to penetrate into Texas this year.

    The only thing against this might be the low sunspot count. Has anyone got a correlation value for hurricanes against sunspots? Even if they have, I doubt that NOAA use it – the Sun isn’t allowed to interfere with climate.

    Rich.

  54. I don’t think NOAA’s original forecast had anything to do with global warming. Meteorology justified their original forecast. Most meteorologists I know at easternuswx.com were also predcting in the range of 15-24 named storms. Many if not most of these meteorologists are self-described skeptics of mainstream AGW. The two most important factors in the forecast were

    1. the warmest atlantic sea surface temperatures ever (warmer than 2005 which was the 2nd warmest, and coincidentally most active season in recorded history) . The warm SSTs are universally recognized to be due principally to the AMO – not AGW.

    2. A developing La Nina which produces favorable wind patterns for development.

    Both of these variables reamin essentially the same, although I have heard speculation that the La Nina may be developing too quickly for ideal storm formation conditions.

    Thus I expect their forecast to remain essentially the same, perhaps decreased by 1 or 2 named storms, since we are off the pace by 1 storm so far (You would probably expect about 4 storms before August 3rd if you were on pace for 18, we have had 3).

  55. Andrew,

    Thanks, well that makes a consensus of two of us :-). Re the record Atlantic temperatures, there must be a case for saying that it would be a combination of AMO (to make them high) and GW (perhaps A) to make them highest.

    Rich.

  56. Yep agree Rich.. GW/AGW would have some role in the warmth but the extreme warmth of +1-2.5C across most of the basin is mostly just due to temporary weather patterns from this winter through early summer. Anyways, the forecast reasoning shouldn’t have changed too much so I doubt the forecast will change more than a storm or two. And I’d be surprised if we didn’t end up with at least a dozen named storms this year.

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