By Steve Goddard
We are seeing a number of interesting polar ice milestones this month. First, WUWT now has a new permanent Sea Ice Page, where you can find all of the live graphs and images in one place. Details here.
Second, it has been the slowest July (1-17) Arctic melt in the eight year JAXA record.
Ice extent has declined at less than half the rate of 2007, and total ice loss has been more than 200,000 km² less than the previous low in 2004.
DMI now shows Arctic ice extent as second highest for the date, topped only by 2005.
Closeup below.
Cryosphere Today shows that ice extent and concentration is about the same as it was 20 years ago.
The modified NSIDC map below shows in green, areas where ice is present in 2010 but was not present in 2007.
The modified NSIDC map below shows (in red) ice loss over the last week. Note that ice extent has increased slightly in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, while it has declined slightly in the East Siberian Sea.
The modified NSIDC map below shows the record low ice loss since the first of the month.
The modified NSIDC map below shows ice loss since early April.
The graph below shows PIPS ice thickness over the last five years. Average ice thickness in 2010 continues to track a little below 2006. It should bottom out in the next week or so between 2006 and 2009.
The low ice loss is consistent with the low Arctic temperatures we have seen this summer.
The North Pole webcam below shows that the meltponds are frozen over. Temperatures have been below -5°C this week. Very cold for July.
The video below shows ice movement since the start of June. Note that we are starting to see a clockwise circulation setting up again, which hints at increased ice loss over the rest of the month.
Another factor suggesting increased ice loss is the NCEP forecast, which projects warm temperatures over the East Siberian Sea and Arctic Basin for the next few days.
A third factor suggesting increased ice loss the rest of the month is that the the ice concentration has declined, due to winds exerting tensile stress on the ice. This allows more sunlight to reach the water and warm it. I expect to see the ice extent graphs showing steeper losses towards the end of the week, primarily in the East Siberian Sea.
GISS thinks it has been hot in the Arctic.
This is primarily due to the fact that they have almost no coverage there, and that they make up numbers extrapolate across vast distances with no data.
Meanwhile down south, sea ice continues at a record high level for the date.
July has been typified by record low ice loss in the north, and record high ice gain in the south. Global sea ice is above normal.
If the current trends were to continue, there is a small possibility that we will see a record maximum global sea ice extent towards the end of September. One thing is for sure – no matter what happens, the press will continue to be fed reports that the poles are “melting down” due to “record heat.”
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and if this trend continues……….
you gotta love it
Anthony, if you did this the same way they do climate computer programs,
we’re all going to be covered in ice
The DMI temperature graph for today, posted about 30 minutes ago, shows the temperature still headed down. If that predicted warming doesn’t kick in soon…
Yes, a trend from 2007 and ahead shows that we are all gonna die before 2035!
Please, Mr. President, can you help us? Ice-Tax for long-drinks?
Its far worse than I presumed…
The DMI Temp graph is doing what it did last year and then some.
Yes, the MSM will be serving more bilgewater to it’s mushroom base.
(How to raise your mushrooms – keep them in the dark and feed them moist garbage).
“AGW will first be felt at the poles.” Oops. Next meme. “Let us not confuse temperature with climate.”
So, it’s now in a *horizontal* death spiral…?
If there is a bunch of snow that has been deposited on the ice, wouldn’t that help protect the ice, even for a short time, from melting? The warmer air that gets brought in, plus solar radiation, would have to work on that first before the ice.
It’s worse than we thought!
Heat wave over Europe dissipated; big cool blob in the Atlantic SST where it was friggin red hot a few days ago:
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
Looks like CO2 didn’t stop all the heat radiating away.
It looks like the forecast made by “Gavin” in a previous Arctic ice thread of 2010 losing more ice than 2007 will be wrong.
REcord sea ice in September would be a boon – it would be good to try to see the thermofascists spin their way out of that one!
I’m looking forward to september…MSM will be quiet again
It would not surprise me if they decommissioned those satellites since they don’t show what we are supposed to be responsible for… the rapid heating of the earth.
Wow, based on the y-axis label, that lead graph says the ice melt dropped by 600 trillion square kilometers from July last year to this year. Thats a lot of ice cubes!
Get ready for a possible:
“But it’s the 12th fastest melting rate since 1979.”
“The long-term trend of Arctic sea ice extent loss continues.”
AGW is on a slow motion train wreck; they should jump ship now while the going is relatively good.:o)
That webcam picture is from webcam 1 and is dated 7th of July – that particular camera is apparently malfunctioning, since it hasn’t sent a picture since then.
The second webcam shows open, unfrozen melt ponds as of July 18th, 7:20 am – the pictures since then are however obscured by snow.
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/npole/2010/images/noaa2-2010-0718-071857.jpg
Wew, thank goodness! For a few years there, I thought we were all going to drown! Well, I’m off to check the return policy for these life-jackets and inflatable rafts.
Did Athony of Steve post this? I assume Anthony!
Anyway does this NOAA forecast graph for August 2010 to March 2011 have a place somewhere on this post. It looks like cooling at both poles for Jan Feb March 2011!!!!!
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/glbT2mSea.gif
Note also that the linked temperature record from the buoy near webcam 1 is acting weird: temperatures dropped 5.4 degrees in a single hour at 2am on the 15th, as seen in the excerpt below.
07/15/0900Z 86.858°N 1.317°W -4.6°C 1016.8mb
07/15/0800Z 86.856°N 1.328°W -3.6°C 1016.6mb
07/15/0700Z 86.852°N 1.326°W -3.9°C 1016.9mb
07/15/0600Z 86.852°N 1.359°W -3.5°C 1016.8mb
07/15/0500Z 86.849°N 1.378°W -3.4°C 1016.9mb
07/15/0400Z 86.847°N 1.395°W -3.0°C 1016.9mb
07/15/0300Z 86.844°N 1.415°W -3.8°C 1016.9mb
07/15/0200Z 86.842°N 1.430°W 1.6°C 1017.2mb
07/15/0100Z 86.839°N 1.448°W 1.8°C 1017.5mb
07/15/0000Z 86.837°N 1.461°W 1.8°C 1017.9mb
07/14/2200Z 86.833°N 1.479°W 1.8°C 1018.2mb
07/14/2100Z 86.832°N 1.488°W 1.9°C 1018.0mb
07/14/2000Z 86.831°N 1.498°W 2.0°C 1018.0mb
That looks like some kind of technical error to me rather than real data.
Ray says:
July 18, 2010 at 2:19 pm
Not to worry;
“Global Warming”, or should I say “Climate Change” can freeze up the poles too.
Didnt you know? Anything can happen when we have “Climate Change”.
Great work with the new ice page. No more having to search around the web.
Another intereresting story is the norwegian expedition by norwegian polar explorer Børge Ousland, who started at midsummer on a trimaran sailboat, aiming to start from Norway (they are currently at the northern tip of Norway, then circumnavigate the pole, sail through the northwest passage, along the western shore of Greenland, and back to Norway. So a polar 360, one could call it. All during this summer season, of course.
Part of the deal is, of course, to “bring attention to global warming and melting ice”.
Will they be able to make it? Or will they put their warmist cause to shame?
Anyone want to make a calculated guess?
Here is their website, blog, where their progress can be followed from day to day:
http://www.ousland.no/blog/
“there is a small possibility that we will see a record maximum global sea ice extent towards the end of September”
Perhaps I’m misunderstanding, but isn’t sea ice then at its seasonal minimum, so shouldn’t that be a “record high minimum”?
If as time goes by “Gavin” looks increasingly to be shown to be wrong you will see fewer of his posts. If in September his ‘forecast’ is wrong you might not hear from him again. It looks like it’s already begun!!! :o)
I recall reading last year that the ice would rapidly melt because it was thin, first year ice. They called it “rotten” and “flippy floppy”. Not joking!!!
“Rotten ice” = some silly fool seeking further funding
“Flippy floppy” = the fools of the Catlin Survey seeking more insurance funds