I’m on my way back to the USA from my Australian speaking tour. I’ll be offline a couple of days. There are many, many, people who I owe a debt of gratitude to, for kindnesses big and small, but, there is one person to who I owe a debt that is much more prominent.
That person is Mr. David Archibald of Perth.
David has been my constant companion throughout the grueling continent crisscrossing pace of the tour, sorting out and correcting details, making sure I was where I needed to be when I needed to be, fighting some idiotic travel battles we faced, and most importantly, helping me hear. This was critical in Q&A after the lectures.
Without him, I would have been lost. He’s a gentleman, a scholar, and I count him as a friend. David, I cannot thank you enough.
That said, there’s something WUWT readers can do that can show gratitude on my behalf, while learning something in the process.
David spoke right along side me at each stop, and created an excellent presentation from the work he has done on his just printed book The Past and Future of Climate.
I’ll review this book in a future post, I’ve read a personal copy he gave me and it reads very well. Like WUWT, this book is heavy on illustrations. There’s not only some very interesting solar research, but some points on climate as well.
For example this illustration (from his slide show) is very interesting:
On my recommendation, if you wish, you can download an order form here:
The Past and Future of Climate – order form
He offers the book for $30AU post paid, and advises that he’ll also ship internationally as well. You can also visit his website at http://davidarchibald.info/
When I do my review, he’ll have an order form that can be used via PayPal, until then, direct by postal mail or PayPal via email contact are the only options.
Again my sincere thanks to David for his unfailing help, good cheer, and pathfinding. I hope WUWT readers can express thanks also.
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Anthony – I had this dreadful dream that you and David were shacked up in that tiny double bed in that run down hotel in Brisbane.
It’s nice to know it was yet another climate change nightmare 🙂
Thank you for your tour and your contribution to the sceptical cause here in Australia. – I thoroughly enjoyed your talk at surfers paradise and the opportunity to meet you face to face.
Unfortunately for some good o’l DA has been the only one that got nearly all the predictions right (except the 0.4c temp drop ). The solar SSN is on course to max ~40. The temps anomaly will likely fall more than 0.4C in coming months see R spencer SST
The above Armagh graph may look conclusive, the Armagh’s temperatures (same as the CETs) are substantially result of the Gulf current’s strength.
Investigating month by month CETs no definitive conclusion can be made.
Here is 300 year CET monthly record overlaid with the sunspot cycle.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CETm.htm
“…and most importantly, helping me hear”
Because of the accent?
You skeptics… you’re in the pocket of Big Book!
Will there be an electronic edition?
Well done DA, thanks for looking after the skipper down under.
David’s best quote, to me, is:
Solar Cycle 24: Implications for the United States
David Archibald — International Conference on Climate Change — March, 2008
Was at the Newcastle presentation. Enlightening but also a confirmation that Anthony and co are real people not just a name on a blog. I was fortunate enough to win a copy of David’s book.
Tallbloke There is a shorter e-version which I found here http://www.warwickhughes.com/agri/Solar_Arch_NY_Mar2_08.pdf
the book is two years more up to date. I’ve sent it to a number of friends who found the explanations and graphs convincing.
Molon labe – now that’s an intriguing name – a reference to Leonidas and the 300 Spartans defending the pass at Thermopylae. Translates roughly as ‘Come and get it’ and in modern Greek pronounced approximately as Molon Lahve. What’s more, Australians have a direct connection with Thermopylae – they fought at Thermopylae as part of the British fighting retreat from the German advance through Greece in April 1941. Off topic, I realise, but thems fighting words and I can’t resist being just a little curious.
UK next Anthony!
Pingo said:
July 3, 2010 at 3:03 am
UK next Anthony!
I second that.
Easy go there fellas. Anthony has just finished a bruising schedule flying back and forth and up and down a country the size of the continental U.S. He will need at least a weeks worth possibly more to catch up on rest. Probably wont be able to do the U.K. / Europe until next year.
Well done Anthony and D.A. plus his extra helpers in having a very successful foray into the Antipodes. Next time Anthony heads this way I hope he has a more relaxing time.
vukcevic says:
July 3, 2010 at 1:04 am
The above Armagh graph may look conclusive, the Armagh’s temperatures (same as the CETs) are substantially result of the Gulf current’s strength.
Investigating month by month CETs no definitive conclusion can be made.
Here is 300 year CET monthly record overlaid with the sunspot cycle.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CETm.htm
___________________________________________________
Yes but is there a lag? Looking at your graph there seems to be a lag.
stevengoddard asked Dr Roy Spencer:
Why is there lag between SST and TLT temperatures?
His response was enlightening:
“Steven:
1) sun warms ocean, then
2) ocean warms atmosphere
Actually, you would not see a time lag between ocean and tropospheric temperatures if this process was at a constant rate at all times. But there are episodic variations in the process, driven mostly by tropical intraseasonal oscillations. The oceans get unusually warm, then the troposphere starts overturning a little faster, evaporating more water from the ocean and dumping the extra latent heat in the troposphere.”
Since the air temperature is driven by the oceans and the oceans act as a giant “capacitor” absorbing heat, redistributing it and then discharging it to the troposphere in El Nino events there is no direct and distinct sun – temperature correlations.
That does not take into account the confounding effects of clouds not to mention your information about the effects of changes in the earth’s magnetic field. I am sure there are a lot of other variables like volcanoes and plankton
If some one showed me a graph where solar activity exactly matched the global temperature I would be highly suspicious. The confounding effects of other dependent and independent variables guarantee there will not be a 100% correlation and that is why CO2, which is also dependent on ocean temperature, can be made a scapegoat so easily.
Lawrie — I realize a rose by any other name is just as sweet — Lawrie \la(w)-rie\ is a variant of Lawrence (Latin), and the meaning of Lawrie is “from Laurentum”. Lawrie is an uncommon first name for men but a very common last name for both men and women.
Off topic, I realiZe, but them names have a long history and I can’t resist being just a little smartalecky.
Anyway, I’m just teasing. I didn’t know that the Australians and British fought at Thermopylae too. That is fascinating.
Lucky them!
In the latest magazine published by the Norwegian Astronomy Association there are several plots showing the same thing: The longer the sunspot cycle, the colder it is in the next cycle. There were plots for locations all over Norway, all of the showing the same trend. The conclusion: The next decade will be cold in Norway. The first half of 2010 may already show what to come; it was colder than the relatively cold 1961-90 normal. Even if this is a local phenomenon for the North Atlantic such a strong relationship would be interesting. On the other hand, the temperature records in Norway are pretty short, there exists very few 19th century records and stations have moved, so the evidence is somewhat weak. And no physical explanation was proposed. I would love to see a similar study for stations with a long record, such as in the UK and Sweden. Then the claim could get some substance (or not).
Anthony,
Don’t forget you have friends to the north of you as well.
I wish to thank you for your work in keeping science honest. Without you and others, government policies would go through on bogus science and we ALL would be paying the price.
Going through the effort to be informative rather than make a buck.
Al Gore and others are in it for the buck and charge accordingly and it is not even their science fields.
……….fighting some idiotic travel battles we faced, and most importantly, helping me hear.,,,,,,,,,,
Until last year, the Warmistas were screaming. The histrionic incidents from Hansen, Romm, Algore told us they had no intention of hearing, listening or learning.
Once again, thanks for your great presentations Down Under. It was an absolute pleasure to meet you in Perth, Western Australia. I agree with you re David Archibald. He stayed at the marina I manage (Port Bouvard Marina – Western Australia) and gave me a copy of his first book, “Solar Cycle 24”. It opened my eyes to alternatives regarding climate change. I went searching and discovered WUWT, Climate Audit, Jo Nova and many others. I’ve never looked back. Never have so many owed so much to so few! Cheers, Kim.
Gail Combs says: July 3, 2010 at 4:24 am
Since the air temperature is driven by the oceans and the oceans act as a giant “capacitor” absorbing heat….
In my view the UK summer months are more likely to respond directly to the solar activity then the rest of the year when the Gulf Stream is predominant. http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CETm.htm
In tropics response to the sun is probably more or less constant throughout the year, the higher latitudes would depend on the rate the Gulf Stream is pumping warm water.
One could also speculate that the saline warm waters are likely to be impeded by the magnetic field; since the GMF is variable than the CETs would respond appropriately.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CETlmt.htm (with reversed scale for GMF )
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NFC10.htm
Cumulative effect of rising solar activity (rising temperature in the Equatorial Atlantic) and dramatic fall in strength of the Earth’s magnetic field may have caused sudden uplift in temperatures in early 1700’s.
Next rapid decline in GMF was 1910-1950 and then from 1975 – present.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/TGa.gif
Roger Carr says:
July 3, 2010 at 2:14 am
David’s best quote, to me, is:
Our generation has known a warm, giving Sun, but the next generation will suffer a Sun that is less giving, and the Earth will be less fruitful.
Solar Cycle 24: Implications for the United States
David Archibald — International Conference on Climate Change — March, 2008
_________________________________________________________________
This and the take over of our food supply by the international cartels has been giving me nightmares for half a decade.
It is why the wealthy have taken his advice to heart and are buying up farmland. I first saw this advice in 2008, here it is again:
“Morgan Stanley research guru turned hedge fund manager Barton Biggs… advises that you buy a farm a good distance away from a city and, he advises, make sure that your doomsday safe-haven:
* Be self-sufficient and capable of growing some kind of food
* Be well-stocked with seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes, etc
And get a gun, he says, because “a few rounds over the approaching brigands’ heads would probably be a compelling persuader that there are easier farms to pillage.”
The problem is compounded by a few cartels intent on grabbing control of the world’s food supply and making home gardening illegal… For your own good of course.
Food Security, Farming, CAFTA and the WTO
HR 2749: WELCOME TO THE GLOBAL PLANTATION
OFFICIAL UN/WTO information supporting above article:
UN/WTO Guide to Good Farming Practices
Patenting of seed: FAO is supporting harmonization of seed rules and regulations in Africa and Central Asia
Nicole Johnson’s well researched pieces on the threat to our food supply:
Food ‘Safety’ Reform and the Enclosure Movement
“History, HACCP and the Food Safety Con Job”
The Festering Fraud Behind Food Safety Reform
Other Articles from my collection:
Small Farmers Hold Key to Feeding the World
Undermining Abundance: The Big Business of Creating Scarcity
Stolen harvest: the hijacking of the global food supply
By Vandana Shiva
I haven’t had an opportunity to read David Archibald’s book yet, but can attest to the fact that it is a stunningly beautiful volume. Colour illustrations of high print quality, visually pleasing layout, text that is focused and to-the-point.
Rather than burying us in dump trucks of data, Archibald appears to have selected his arguments carefully for maximum impact.
Loco says:
July 3, 2010 at 5:30 am
Once again, thanks for your great presentations Down Under…. It opened my eyes to alternatives regarding climate change. I went searching and discovered WUWT, Climate Audit, Jo Nova and many others. I’ve never looked back. Never have so many owed so much to so few! Cheers, Kim.
____________________________________________
I second that. Thank you Anthony, David, and the rest for your dedication to science and the truth. History, if written by honest people, will remember you as heroes.
Molon Labe was also used as the title of a novel by “Boston T. Party” (Javelin Press, 2004), about a state standing up against an overbearing, stifling Federal government – another tyrannical “consensus”. Ripping yarn – great read. Appropriate reference. Not OT, in my view, but subject to the moderator’s ruling.
Regarding hearing, many years ago I was involved in a project where our Australian outpost of a big US company was making the parent company nervous about what we had bitten off, and they sent a very eminent and experienced engineer out to do an engineering audit. Five minutes into the discussion, he halted proceedings to say “I want you to understand that if I ask you to repeat what you said, it is because I listen with a strong North Dakota accent”. In Sydney on the tour, given the usual difficulties with an audience microphone for questions from the floor, Anthony did not let his Californian accent get in the way of attentive listening and responsive answers.
For example this illustration (from his slide show) is very interesting
You can always count on D.A. to do sloppy, misleading work. Figure 5 strongly suggest that during SC22 the temperature was 9.6C and during SC23 it was 8.2. In actual fact the numbers were: SC22: 9.50, SC23: 9.97.
Steinar Midtskogen says:
July 3, 2010 at 4:36 am
In the latest magazine published by the Norwegian Astronomy Association there are several plots showing the same thing: The longer the sunspot cycle, the colder it is in the next cycle. There were plots for locations all over Norway, all of the showing the same trend. The conclusion: The next decade will be cold in Norway. The first half of 2010 may already show what to come; it was colder than the relatively cold 1961-90 normal. Even if this is a local phenomenon for the North Atlantic such a strong relationship would be interesting. On the other hand, the temperature records in Norway are pretty short, there exists very few 19th century records and stations have moved, so the evidence is somewhat weak. And no physical explanation was proposed. I would love to see a similar study for stations with a long record, such as in the UK and Sweden. Then the claim could get some substance (or not).
In the link given above,
http://www.warwickhughes.com/agri/Solar_Arch_NY_Mar2_08.pdf
Archibald has compiled a number of such plots from Europe and the US.
They are intriguing. There is strong opposition by Leif that this is a phenomenon that can predict the next cycle’s temperature. I expect he will come in strongly with a link to his global plot that even shows the opposite effect.
On the other hand, miners with a canary in a cage note that it is suffocating and run away, because it means there is monoxide and worse on the the floor. This does not mean that the average global canaries on the floor will be suffocating: it has to be a mine and a particular mine at that.
It might be that regions that display this statistically significant behavior are like canaries, and their message is lost in averaging over the globe.
On a more serious note, one should try and see what is common to stations that show this behavior, with respect to other variables, like distance from ocean and jet streams etc.