By Steve Goddard
In 2007, Dr. Hansen boldly declared
“…defying government gag orders. Hansen told Reuters, quote, “The reason so much (of the Arctic ice) went suddenly is that it is hitting a tipping point that we have been warning about for the past few years.”
and Mark Serreze placed the blame squarely on CO2.
“…the effects of greenhouse warming are now coming through loud and clear.”
So let’s see how the greenhouse gas induced tipping point is working out. By this date in 1990, there was already a large hole in the ice in the Laptev Sea (upper right, near Siberia.) Watch the video:
Generated from UIUC maps.
Solar radiation in the Arctic is very close to it’s peak by May 25, so there was a lot of solar energy being absorbed through the ice in the Arctic ocean by this date in 1990.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/EnergyBalance/images/annual_solar_insolation.png
Sea ice concentration is considerably higher now than it was on this date 20 years ago.
Generated from UIUC maps.
This means higher albedo (reflectance) and less absorption of solar energy. Note in the insolation graph above, that by the end of July the amount of sunshine in the Arctic begins to drop off very quickly.
You can see in the JAXA graph above that the 2007 divergence occurred in late July after Arctic insolation was already shutting down, essentially nullifying the Arctic albedo feedback argument. The Arctic minimum comes too late in the summer to have a significant impact on the radiation budget, due to the very low angle sun at that time. In fact, CERES has measured that during September 2008, the Arctic net radiation balance was strongly negative. The open water loses heat to the atmosphere (because it is not insulated by ice) meaning that declining ice cover is probably a negative feedback, not a positive one. NASA’s Earth Observatory explains:
This map (below) of net radiation (incoming sunlight minus reflected light and outgoing heat) shows global energy imbalances in September 2008, the month of an equinox. Areas around the equator absorbed about 200 watts per square meter more on average (orange and red) than they reflected or radiated. Areas near the poles reflected and/or radiated about 200 more watts per square meter (green and blue) than they absorbed. Mid-latitudes were roughly in balance. (NASA map by Robert Simmon, based on CERES data.)
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/EnergyBalance/images/ceres_net_radiation_200809.jpg
Looks like the Arctic is less tipped than it was 20 years ago. It is a shame that Dr. Hansen feels like he is gagged, when he has such important information needed to save the planet.
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……defying government gag orders. Hansen told…..
What a weird mind James Hansen has.
“…the effects of greenhouse warming are now coming through loud and clear.”
What a weird mind Mark Serreze has. 😉
Do either of these gentlemen know the 60’s are gone?
BTW, where’s pictures of polar bears?? 😉 Prophetic statements from ‘manmade global warming’ say the polar bear population is supposed to be shrinking, like Arctic ice. But actually it’s growing.
There’s quite a bit of that record NH snow still hanging around.
I really appreciate the videos. They tell an easy to see story! 🙂
Even the trolls will be able to understand. 😉
Meantime back in Europe, as if the Icelandic ash clouds and the crashing euro weren’t enough, the self-flagellating climate commissars are poised to issue another edict:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article7136639.ece
hmmmmmm actual things that HAVE reached the tipping point.
Hansen’s credibility
Mark Serreze’s credibility – and hopefully career
the IPCC’s credibility – and hopefully future
Belief in the Global Warming Crisis
Belief that CO2 is a pollutant
etc, etc, etc.
Oh dear, OT I’m afraid, but I clicked on the ad above about how to offset my carbon emissions (in the hope it helps to generate income for wuwt) and was told the following:
“Global warming is a serious environmental threat and a moral crisis. Buying high-quality carbon offsets can help us take more responsibility for our personal emissions.”
I shall go out immediately to my 24hr store and see if they have any high-quality charcoal biscuits. My family will be well pleased with the consequent reduction in my personal emissions.
Please, it’s “its”, not “it’s” when it’s the possessive case. “It’s” is short for “it is”, and nothing else.
James Hansen is the same person who said President Bush was “silencing” him during the Bush-Kerry campaign. When it was explored by a few bloggers (not the media), it was discovered than Hansen was doing personal work on taxpayer time and what President Bush said to him was to do his job.
James Hansen has no scruples or honor. He is like a politician because he has no qualms about lying whenever it fits his goals.
Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
May 25, 2010 at 3:58 pm
BTW, where’s pictures of polar bears??
Opps, I see by scrolling down the front page there is a story on polar bears.
Perhaps Hansen is standing at the window of his Manhattan office pronouncing with all the understated solemnity of a self-important prophet that the perimeter road alongside the Hudson is to be submerged by the rising sea. Oh, that was thirty years ago? And that little tipping point was due some 10 years ago. Not a millimeter of difference. Another of Hansen’s wonderful, wonderful predictions. I predict…. he will be sharing a cell with Al.
Charles,
Here it’s is again.
Dr. Hansen is famous for his tipping point nonsense.
When it comes to temperatures, for the last 550 million years the Earth’s temperature has varied between 12C and 22C. (Scotese). About 22% of the time during that period temperatures topped-out at 22C; only about 6% of the time they bottomed-out at 12C. The atmosphere contains 750 Gigatons of carbon. If all the 4,000 GT of fossil fuel reserves were burned, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 would increase from 390 ppm to 2,470 ppm. The resulting logarithmic temperature increase would be 1.4C, which would increase the temperature from the present 14.5C to 15.9C. So after burning all our fossil fuels, we would wind up 39% off the bottom of the historic temperature range.
So much for Dr. Hansen’s tipping points.
Steve, as you (and most everybody else here on WUWT) well knows, we differ greatly in our perceptions of what the data says and what the condition of the arctic sea ice really is, but let me take just one thing you said in your opening post:
“Sea ice concentration is considerably higher now than it was on this date 20 years ago.”
First, looking at this chart, which represents the best continuous long term data we have:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png
In looking at the trend line for anomalies, I see that on this date, May 25, 1990, it appears that the anomaly, while admittedly negative, was not nearly as negative as we are on May 25, 2010. How does this equate to your statement that sea ice concentraion in 2010 is “considerably higher” than in 1990, when it is showing a greater NEGATIVE anomaly than in 1990? There seems to be a major discrepancy between our perceptions…
But furthermore, in looking at this trend chart:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seasonal.extent.1900-2007.jpg
I don’t see how someone, even the most elementary chart reader, could not easily see what the longer term trend has been in the sea ice since long before 1990, even going back to the 1960’s— it’s been down, slowly, but perceptively spiraling down.
Now some people might be confused about what a “death” spiral is, and specifcally what it might look like as sea ice declines. It means it doesn’t go straight down, but has a few down years, and then a few up years…sort of 2 steps forward and then 1 step back, then 3 steps foward, and 2 steps back, then 1 step foward and 2 steps back…pretty simple. In the charts above, and multiple other data sets, this is exactly what arctic sea ice has been doing for many decades…hence the reason why people like myself fully believe what Dr. Mark Serreze and Dr. Hansen, and numerous others are saying about the sea ice. We see it in the data. And when people like you try to suggest that somehow something else is happening, when the data doesn’t support it…well, it makes me quite suspicious of why you’d want to suggest that somehow this year’s concentration is “considerably higher” than 1990. I just fail to see how you and I can look at the exact same data, and see two different realities. It probably gets to the heart of why I’ve been projecting since March (even during the highly touted “bump up” episode, that we’ll end up somewhere less than 2008-2009 in the arctic sea ice minimum this year, and you’ve stated you think we’ll be greater than either of those years. I guess we just see the conditions is the Arctic through completely different lenses, but one thing is for certain, time will tell which one is the most accurate…
“The open water loses heat to the atmosphere (because it is not insulated by ice) meaning that declining ice cover is probably a negative feedback, not a positive one.”
The heat would not have been in the water to radiate out if the ice had been there. The amount of energy radiating out of the dark ocean is less than the amount that would be reflected and radiated back by the white ice. Are you even trying to make sense?
re RichieP: May 25, 2010 at 4:08 pm
……I clicked on the ad above…..
(O/T)²: I’ve never seen one of those ads that people keep referring to. I do have ‘blockers’ installed on my habitual browser, but I’ve tried with two other ‘unprotected’ browsers and can’t see them either. Not that I want to be inundated with ads, of course, just curious. Any know the details of how these work?
/dr.bill
In the past, ‘predicting’ cyclical events (such as eclipses), and passing them off as cataclysmic, but avoidable or redeemable by sacrifice, qualified one for a highly paid post in a religious organization.
But apparently now such skills are marketable in scientific circles.
Charles and Smokey,
Thank you, gentlemen, for trying to keep us literate. IT’S a shame when a sentient being can’t handle ITS own language. The human race little realizes that IT’S likely to be ITS downfall one of these days. The tipping point draw’s nigh.
dh
It’s still obvious to me that looking at the AMSR-E Sea Ice Extent, shows that no one should be looking at the highs and lows. Those are the extremes, and mean very little.
Arctic sea ice is very consistent every June/July and Nov/Dec, and that’s all that matters.
If I had to bet everything I own I would back S Goddard, not Hanson et al.! actually I dearly wish I could have my money back Mr Goddard and not be thieved from me by the likes of Hanson and Serreze, they are fraudsters with a dishonest agenda and with luck will be enjoying the hospitality of a small American base on Cuba, with others who chose to make war in an underhanded way on the USA. Perhaps we should make a large tented camp site on the soon to be tropical paradise of Antarctica, up high as the sea will encroach the lower levels and send all the AGW crowd and their enablers and supporters in the political arena, to serve their penitude for crimes against humanity. It would not be cruel as they are so sure it will get hot they will bet your future on it.
Again I wonder: How many times can one cry “wolf” over a 30 year period that continues today, before people recognize a Münchhausen?
I was wondering how many of the recent scares are to do with improvements in our ability to monitor the natural world. We’ve previously assumed that, say, the amount of ice at the poles or the ozone layer is relatively constant – or at least that changes are very gradual – but suddenly in the last few decades we are able to see the detailed changes which have always previously happened unseen and assume that they are new. Consequence; panic.
I suspect that the medical field is another area where this has happened, with equally hysterical consequences.
Mike
Try again. Heat is transported into the Arctic by currents from the Pacific and Atlantic. If you read the NASA article you would know that the Arctic radiates out more LW than it receives SW + LW.
Instead of being rude, try using your brain.
R Gates,
It is extremely clear from the maps that sea ice concentration is greater now than it was 20 years ago. Some trend, eh?
mack28 says:
May 25, 2010 at 4:04 pm
Meantime back in Europe, as if the Icelandic ash clouds and the crashing euro weren’t enough, the self-flagellating climate commissars are poised to issue another edict:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article7136639.ece
Yep.
The price of carbon crashed, and thats awkward, cos it means you can’t makes no Payolla offa the AGW BS.
So, we MUST get back to cutting emissions ergo – issue more useless carbon credits, up their value, pass on the pain to johnny public,… get the speculators(gamblers) running bets on $/ton going up/down/sideways – and create a carbon bubble…cos we’re post normal and we passed the end of history, what could possibly go wrong?
After which all those dubiously connected green gazillionaires and not-so-free-market traders can continue to roll around atop an emperor size bed, covered in our money, while snorting coal dust and coke of a $2000-an-hour hookers belly.
Kinda have too, since the Euro is heading the way of ENRON, and global Sovereign Default is surely on the way.
These loons are out to vacuum up the last scraps of wealth, and if they have to kill the worlds economy to do it, hell, its a small price to pay.
/rant set to hibernate. (Restart required to install updates)
Wade says:
May 25, 2010 at 4:20 pm
And it’s interesting that Obama seems to be in fact muzzling Hansen, because we don’t hear a peep out of him now about death trains, prosecuting CEO’s, etc.