APRIL 2010 UAH Global Temperature Update: +0.50 deg. C
By Dr. Roy Spencer
The global-average lower tropospheric temperature continues warm: +0.50 deg. C for April, 2010, although it is 0.15 deg. C cooler than last month. The linear trend since 1979 is now +0.14 deg. C per decade.
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS 2009 1 0.252 0.472 0.031 -0.065 2009 2 0.247 0.569 -0.074 -0.044 2009 3 0.191 0.326 0.056 -0.158 2009 4 0.162 0.310 0.013 0.012 2009 5 0.140 0.160 0.120 -0.057 2009 6 0.044 -0.011 0.100 0.112 2009 7 0.429 0.194 0.665 0.507 2009 8 0.242 0.229 0.254 0.407 2009 9 0.504 0.590 0.417 0.592 2009 10 0.361 0.335 0.387 0.381 2009 11 0.479 0.458 0.536 0.478 2009 12 0.283 0.350 0.215 0.500 2010 1 0.649 0.861 0.437 0.684 2010 2 0.603 0.725 0.482 0.792 2010 3 0.653 0.853 0.454 0.726 2010 4 0.501 0.796 0.207 0.634
Arctic temps (not shown) continued a 5-month string of much above normal temps (similar to Nov 05 to Mar 06) as the tropics showed signs of retreating from the current El Nino event. Antarctic temperatures were cooler than the long term average. Through the first 120 days of 1998 versus 2010, the average anomaly was +0.655 in 1998, and +0.602 in 2010. These values are within the margin of error in terms of their difference, so the recent global tropospheric warmth associated with the current El Nino has been about the same as that during the peak warmth of the 1997-98 El Nino.
As a reminder, two months ago we changed to Version 5.3 of our dataset, which accounts for the mismatch between the average seasonal cycle produced by the older MSU and the newer AMSU instruments. This affects the value of the individual monthly departures, but does not affect the year to year variations, and thus the overall trend remains the same as in Version 5.2. ALSO…we have added the NOAA-18 AMSU to the data processing in v5.3, which provides data since June of 2005. The local observation time of NOAA-18 (now close to 2 p.m., ascending node) is similar to that of NASA’s Aqua satellite (about 1:30 p.m.). The temperature anomalies listed above have changed somewhat as a result of adding NOAA-18.
[NOTE: These satellite measurements are not calibrated to surface thermometer data in any way, but instead use on-board redundant precision platinum resistance thermometers (PRTs) carried on the satellite radiometers. The PRT’s are individually calibrated in a laboratory before being installed in the instruments.]
There was much scaremongering here in Illinois; WARMEST APRIL IN RECORDED HISTORY!!!OMG MAN THE BOATS
Actually April is NOT the warmest month in recorded history, well that is only if you selectively IGNORE the Vostok Ice Core Data record.
If I’m not mistaken the Vostok Ice Core Data is part of the RECORDED HISTORY and shows warmer temperatures have occurred a number of times, thus April’s not the warmest nor are the last years of recent warm temperatures… all still below the Vostok record maximums.
Anyone care to validate or refute this?
They should make the same question USGS does about earthquakes: Did you feel it?
…because if we don’t…something is wrong.
It really happened a few days ago with a supposed earthquake in northern california. It was a hardware error.
This change is clearly the start of the predicted long-term downward trend, and even at just the observed 0.15C/month, we’ll see a temperature decline over the next year of 1.8C, and, obviously, this trend in declining temperature is only likely to accelerate.
With a global recession and high energy prices, they are running behind is laying new black asphalt paving next to buildings. The pavement keeps the thermometers from over chilling.
Touche’ pwl!
“slightly”? certainly this two-sentence bloomberg article is “slight”:
5 May: Businessweek: Bloomberg: Simon Lomax: U.S. Carbon Limits to ‘Slightly’ Raise Jobless Rate, CBO Says
U.S. limits on carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that scientists have linked to climate change would raise the unemployment rate, the Congressional Budget Office said today.
If greenhouse gas limits were imposed on U.S. industry, “total employment during the next few decades would be slightly lower than would be the case in the absence of such policies,” the CBO said today in a report.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-05/u-s-carbon-limits-to-slightly-raise-jobless-rate-cbo-says.html
yeh, thats a proxy. not temp recording.
April in Indianapolis recorded the highest LOW temperature reading for the month
of 69 degrees, a nice balmy April I guess. I do not see any records set for Illinois.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/records/index.php
Eh! 0.14 degrees Celsius per decade since 1979? Ladies and Gentlemen we are doomed.
Doomed I tell yah! This is going to be the hottest year EVAAH!
Returning to something that bears even a modicum of resemblance to reality…
Whether or not we have a La Nina, it looks like temperatures are “normal”, whatever that means, I hate to make predictions but even without a La Nina I reckon a re-run of 2007 is on the cards.
Just my 2C
We may pay for this next year rather than this year in arctic ice extent (think 2007 impacted by thinning of multi-year ice in 2006).
As a comparison to Mt. Pinatubo, why didn’t the eruption of Mt. St. Helens have any ‘noticeable’ affect on weather?
Well, California did its part to bring about the decline. Almost exactly 2.0 degrees C colder than the “normal,” or 3.5 degrees F, and was the 12th coldest on record (out of 116 years). see http://www.calclim.dri.edu
The trend since 1989 for April temps in California is dropping like a stone. Unprecedented in the 116 year record.
Is there any systematic effect on the satellite PRTs due to solar heating and possibly episodic shading? If so, how does that play into systematic error in the measurements? Images of the NOAA-18 and NASA Aqua satellites don’t seem to show a sun shade.
pwl:
First, I’m not sure what period you’re referring to in the Vostok ice core data, but the standard meaning of “recorded history” is that written by people at a time when the events are still in living memory. Maybe some flexibility for stories handed down orally for a generation or two. Time before that is prehistory.
Secondly, the headline was “warmest April”, right? Not warmest month. Somehow I don’t think ice cores are precise enough to distinguish time down to individual months.
Before pouring scorn on a statement, try to understand what it is saying.
the tropics showed signs of retreating from the current El Nino event
Joe Bastardi forecast for next 9 months, till January, 2011:
El Nino ending, La Nina coming,
heavy hurricane season for U.S.,
rapid cooling in general worldwide going to negative anomaly,
another cold winter for Europe, Alaska, and Western half of Canada (looks like no warm winter for Vancouver this upcoming year, sorry global warming alarmists but the warm Olympics weren’t caused by man but by El Nino) :
5/5/10 “Sink-o” De Nino… The Rapid Collapse of El Nino
4:34 minute video
http://www.accuweather.com/video/83060117001/sink-o-de-nino-the-rapid-collapse-of-el-nino.asp?channel=vblog_bastardi
Andrew W says:
“This change is clearly the start of the predicted long-term downward trend…”
———
I love the humor! Now that’s some funny stuff!
Meanwhile, back in the real world, 2010 keeps on track to be the warmest year on instrument record…May tropo temps at 14, 000 feet is above 20 year averages every day so far. Where is all this heat coming from? Still left over from the fading El Nino?
The solar minimum is over, and unless we see some major volcanic activtiy (hundreds of times larger than what we’ve seen in Iceland so far) than the next few years are going to be warmer. The small drop from March to April could very well be from the fading El Nino, but with the solar max ahead of us, we’ve got warming ahead over the next few years as well…
I was looking at the UAH ch05 graph Roy. Why the arbitrarily chop off of data mid 1998? It would be nice to compare the day to day temps of 2010 el nino with that of 1998 ( also in first few months of year ), but someone decided not to let us. Why’s that?
Also, temp anomalys…
1998 1 0.58
1998 2 0.76
1998 3 0.53
1998 4 0.76
2010 1 0.64
2010 2 0.61
2010 3 0.66
2010 4 0.50
the 20 year record high in the 1st few months of the year should be mostly composed of the 1998 peak. But when I compare the data given to the graph, it doesn’t corrispond, and in an odd way. Anyone else want to check to see what I mean?
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps
R. Gates says:
May 5, 2010 at 4:20 pm
In the real world co2 did not cause the warming this year. El Nino caused the temperature spike of warming this year just like El Nino caused the temperature spike of warming in 1998. El Nino is ending and quick cooling is coming this year.
Anomaly could go negative by the end of the year. That will be a travesty for ‘manmade global warming’ believers.
But for those who care about real science, and real data, it will be one more piece of evidence proving ‘manmde global warming’ science is wrong.
Somewhat on topic: NINO3.4 SST anomalies (weekly) have dropped below the threshold of an El Nino:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2010/05/nino34-sst-anomalies-in-neutral.html
Apparently our friend R. Gates has never heard of the PDO. Amazing.
meemoe_uk says:
May 5, 2010 at 4:21 pm
I was looking at the UAH ch05 graph Roy. Why the arbitrarily chop off of data mid 1998?
It’s not arbitrary, the satellite was launched then!
Roger Sowell “Well, California did its part to bring about the decline. ”
Ever since I was a little boy, many strange things originated or flourished in California and many have led to declines. LSD, intellectually-challenged movie stars, rock concerts in paddocks, long hair, free love, AIDS, oil wells in supermarkets, pole dancing, Napa Valley wine, strange religions, NCAR ……. what an inventive place it is.
Here in NH its been pretty volatile, swinging between 10 above to 10 below normal. Just the other day we got an inch of snow with 30 F temps. Today it was 70 and comfortable.
With ENSO going negative this month, I expect we may see more snow, and probably a repeat of the problems with blight we had last year on crops. Rainfall is above normal, the vernal pools in the woods remain above normal. Hopefully the crabapple blossoms that came out today will fruit this year.
The arctic bird species we’ve increasingly been seeing at our feeders in the winter have gone north and the yellow finches and blue jays predominate, along with numerous flickers and pileated woodpeckers.
And if you take out all of the fraudulent adjustments there has been no warming at all. Furthermore if you actually adjusted for UHI correctly we would be looking at a negative number….