by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
The global-average lower tropospheric temperature continues to be quite warm: +0.65 deg. C for March, 2010. This is about the same as January. Global average sea surface temperatures (not shown) remain high.
As a reminder, last month we change to Version 5.3 of our dataset, which accounts for the mismatch between the average seasonal cycle produced by the older MSU and the newer AMSU instruments. This affects the value of the individual monthly departures, but does not affect the year to year variations, and thus the overall trend remains the same as in Version 5.2.
ALSO…we have now added the NOAA-18 AMSU, which provides data since June of 2005. The local observation time of NOAA-18 (now close to 2 p.m., ascending node) is similar to that of NASA’s Aqua satellite (about 1:30 p.m.). The temperature anomalies listed above have changed somewhat as a result of adding NOAA-18.
[NOTE: These satellite measurements are not calibrated to surface thermometer data in any way, but instead use on-board redundant precision platinum resistance thermometers (PRTs) carried on the satellite radiometers. The PRT’s are individually calibrated in a laboratory before being installed in the instruments.]
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS 2009 1 0.252 0.472 0.031 -0.065 2009 2 0.247 0.569 -0.074 -0.044 2009 3 0.191 0.326 0.056 -0.158 2009 4 0.162 0.310 0.013 0.012 2009 5 0.140 0.160 0.120 -0.057 2009 6 0.044 -0.011 0.100 0.112 2009 7 0.429 0.194 0.665 0.507 2009 8 0.242 0.229 0.254 0.407 2009 9 0.504 0.590 0.417 0.592 2009 10 0.361 0.335 0.387 0.381 2009 11 0.479 0.458 0.536 0.478 2009 12 0.283 0.350 0.215 0.500 2010 1 0.649 0.861 0.437 0.684 2010 2 0.603 0.725 0.482 0.792 2010 3 0.653 0.853 0.454 0.726
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El Nino
So other than el Nino and low sunspots, whats causing the near record temperatures?
Ho hum.
The El Nino is pumping energy into the troposphere whilst the low level of solar activity causes the atmosphere to contract which slows down energy loss to space.
A purely temporary combination and nothing to do with CO2.
A La Nina plus a more active solar surface would deal with the issue by releasing less energy to the air from the oceans and releasing energy a little faster to space.
I’d bet as long as El Nino is with us that this will continue.
Wait for it…….hottest month ever?!?!?!?
When it starts to go back down, I hope it “remembers” to come back up, as I don’t fancy living under 3 km. of ice…….
Looking forward to the global anomaly map… I wonder if its going to have the “great red spot” over Greenland again.
Since we’re on the subject… I’m curious, how many individual readings make up a monthly satellite temperature reading? And are the measurements distributed evenly over the coverage area?
Thanks!
Well Dr Spencer, one might almost argue that your last year or so of data looks like a re-run of the 1998 El Nino.
Of course if you published now; you could have your very own Hockey Stick.
George
I have been confused by this lately. I am currently staying in Berlin for a temporary job relocation, normal place of residence is Florida. I have family in the NE area. Everyone I speak with, on both continents, have commented on how unseasonably cold it has been. Almost the entire month of January was below freezing in Berlin, something they haven’t seen for decades. Where is the offseting warm temperature coming from?
ferrelhadley (13:28:22) :
So other than el Nino and low sunspots, whats causing the near record temperatures?
Does there have to be any other causation?
Satellite data is always exaggerated during ENSO events. GISS doesn’t show the big spike, and didn’t in 1998 either.
“Quite warm” indeed.
The heat certainly isn’t hiding in the UK.
Probably an ignorant question, but how long is the satellite record of surface / troposphere temperatures? I’m talking temperature records which have not been CRU’d or Hadley’d.
Yep, appears to be getting hotter and hotter: +0.65c.
I say appears. It must be borne in mind that the global temperature has a range of about 4c between January and July. January/February is the coolest half of the year, so even though the anomaly is +0.65c, we are still a few whole degrees below the absolute July temperature average. So it is by no means certain that 2010 will be the record year some are predicting.
The following site is handy for keeping up with El Nino/La Nina. Their one-curve display shows us a few days away from neutral conditions unless a surprise turnaround happens.
http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/news/ocean-indicators/el-nino-bulletin/index.html
I’m always flabbergasted by idiotic comments of “this doesn’t make any sense because it’s cold where I am”, as though you are able to deduce global temperatures by looking out of your window.
It may be cold in Europe but it may also be much hotter than usual over the arctic or elsewhere, and even if it is cold in Europe it may be that it is actually still warmer than the long term average, you just don’t realize it.
But it will be interesting to see the tropospheric map, if one is published.
Its definitely Co2 guys LOL
4th warmest March on record here in Minnesota. Quite nice, actually.
El Nino is now in the range it could end pretty much any time in the next three months.
Bill R (13:43:52) wrote:
“I have been confused by this lately. I am currently staying in Berlin for a temporary job relocation, normal place of residence is Florida. I have family in the NE area. Everyone I speak with, on both continents, have commented on how unseasonably cold it has been. Almost the entire month of January was below freezing in Berlin, something they haven’t seen for decades. Where is the offseting warm temperature coming from?”
Bill, I can tell you that we’ve had a marvellously mild January through now in eastern Canada, and a temperature map shows a big red blob stretching from here northward through most of the Canadian arctic and across to Greenland. For whatever reason, the arctic air that usually hangs around the arctic escaped and went much farther south than usual, hence the record snow in DC, cold Florida, etc. I suspect ENSO. We’ll see.
IanM
Pinch of salt anyone?
Bill R (13:43:52) :
I have been confused by this lately…..Where is the offseting warm temperature coming from?
Bill, we certainly had some below average cold spells in the eastern US, esp during January, but the last 3 weeks have been unseasonably warm, quite warm the past week!
According to other blogs it’s feeling like the middle of Summer in the Northeastern quarter of the United States and up into Southeastern Canada.
Obviously this will be touted as proof of AGW and the big cold snaps down in the South during last Winter will be forgotten (by the media that is).
Meanwhile NOAA’s SST chart indicates a steady continued drop in SST’s even while El Nino is still going, WXmaps is currently showing a good sized splotch of negative anomalies forecast for a good chunk of Asia outside India and the Middle east and South America. Also seems that the cold anomalies covering a good chunk of the Northern Pacific reaching the California coast (negative PDO?) is making it easier for cold air to stay in place along the western coast of North America.
Meanwhile our position between the much cooler Western US and the fairly Warm Eastern US is making for some rollercoaster temperatures, we have 80’s again today and then things will dive back to around 60 and then bounce up (and it already did that once this month), depending it may only lead to another dive.
ferrelhadley (13:28:22) : You asked, “So other than el Nino and low sunspots, whats causing the near record temperatures?”
The upward step response of the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere to the 1997/98 El Nino. It’s easier to see with the way the RSS TLT anomaly data are subdivided. (Note how there is little to no response in this dataset to the La Nina of 1998/99/00/01.)
http://i44.tinypic.com/65766c.png
There was a similar but smaller step after the 1986/87/88 El Nino as well, but the Mount Pinatubo eruption makes it difficult to see. Discussed it in the following post. The effect is tough to miss in the Hovmoller (time-latitude) plots:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/06/rss-msu-tlt-time-latitude-plots.html
That post also ran here at WUWT.
Regards
For those interested, I posted the update for March 2010 SST anomaly data today:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2010/04/march-2010-sst-anomaly-update.html
Why are sea surface and atmospheric temperatures combined to provide glogal “anomolies”? Seems to me to be like averaging apples and pears! Why do we tie ourselves in knots over temperature anomolies? We have the means to accurately measure atmospheric heat energy changes directly by satellites – which is actually what we need to know.