December 2009 UAH Global Temperature Update +0.28 Deg. C
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
The global-average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly fell back to the October level of +0.28 deg. C in December.
The tropics continue warm from El Nino conditions there, while the NH and SH extratropics anomalies cooled from last month. While the large amount of year-to-year variability in global temperatures seen in the above plot makes it difficult to provide meaningful statements about long-term temperature trends in the context of global warming, the running 25-month average suggests there has been no net warming in the last 11 years or so.
[NOTE: These satellite measurements are not calibrated to surface thermometer data in any way, but instead use on-board redundant precision platinum resistance thermometers carried on the satellite radiometers.]
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2009 1 +0.304 +0.443 +0.165 -0.036
2009 2 +0.347 +0.678 +0.016 +0.051
2009 3 +0.206 +0.310 +0.103 -0.149
2009 4 +0.090 +0.124 +0.056 -0.014
2009 5 +0.045 +0.046 +0.044 -0.166
2009 6 +0.003 +0.031 -0.025 -0.003
2009 7 +0.411 +0.212 +0.610 +0.427
2009 8 +0.229 +0.282 +0.177 +0.456
2009 9 +0.422 +0.549 +0.294 +0.511
2009 10 +0.286 +0.274 +0.297 +0.326
2009 11 +0.497 +0.422 +0.572 +0.495
2009 12 +0.280 +0.318 +0.242 +0.503
But NOAA here in Ne Oregon, promises a warm, dry,than normal January. Praise
Gaia and her Profit….
Believe! El Nino is real and he’s wearing a Superbaby outfit….
This is actually what they are saying that Nino is going save US from winter….
OK.
Worse than expected. Weather is not climate they say.
About what I expected. The SSTs led by the El Nino are still driving up the global temps. However, if this event is disappearing, as it appears may be happening, it will be real interesting to see exactly what happens next.
Will the drop be quick? Will it be slow? Will some other factor start to exert its influence? Time will tell.
All I know is we were supposed to have a mild winter here in the midwest because of the El Nino. Still waiting …
Why use a 25 month running average?
Where did the data come from? It is not on the http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/msu/t2lt/tltglhmam_5.2 site yet.
John M Reynolds
Now that I understand how surface data is collected and compiled, thanks to your surface stations survey Anthony, Stephen Mcintyre’s analysis, and the Climategate data dump… UAH and RSS (in that order) are all I trust.
The PDO can change quit quickly:
http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/ClimTrends/Change/TempChange.html
Except in Australia (and the WMO’s world)
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/heatwave-shows-need-for-carbon-deal-garrett-20100105-lses.html
Roy,
Is there anywhere to get this data in digital form ??
SH seemed to drop the most.
One burning question: Have those satellites been adjusted with surface stations?, if so, how would these temperatures look if readjusted to checked reality, taking into consideration surfacestations.org recorded error margins?.
Note that the daily temps were rising steeply at the end of December and are possibly approaching record territory in January if they don’t fall off again.
Looking at the latest NOAA sea surface temperature anomaly data, the warm area of the Pacific El Nino is obvious, and the north Pacific off Alaska is till cool (phase of the PDO), but the rest of the global oceans also look ‘warm’ and I wonder if it is ENSO that affects the globe – as I have always been led to believe, or the globe that affects ENSO. If the latter, we would have to be looking at a major shift in cloud cover or a reduction in cloud-free atmospheric transparency (or both) in order to get extra warming SW radiation to the ocean surface on this scale. Does anybody have such up-to-date data?
Could Atmospheric transparency be affected by magnetic/electrical properties related to voltages? Is there an ENSO signal of that kind that would be global but affect the Pacific more strongly?
It is intersting how Dr Spencer has shifted his running average from a 13 month running average to a new 25 month average. This conveniently “hides” the return in 2009 to well above average temperatures since the cooler (but still warmer than average) year of 2008. The use of the term no “net” warming in the commentary is another clever trick. Any blind freddy reading the graph can see that it shows a warming trend every decade for the past three decades.
Readers might also be intersted in looking at Australia’s 2009 climate report (released yesterday), which shows this decade was the warmest on record in Australia and that 2009 the second warmest year on record. http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/climate/change/20100105.shtml
It may help some visitors to this blog shift their focus from the silly idea that a couple of cold weeks in a northern winter is proof that GLOBAL warming has stopped.
“Henry chance (07:37:08) :
Worse than expected. Weather is not climate they say.”
as in “Reality is not fantasy”?
I wonder if the UHI thermometers will see things as cold.
Wow
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=16781
Interesting footnote. I wonder if Dr. Spencer has caught flak from Monckton’s “the satellite record is just calibrated to the surface record” meme.
Be careful not to eat one of your own in the frenzy.
Richard M (07:37:09) Do you see any El Nino here?:
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif
The El Nino was named as such , many years ago, by the fishermen along the northern coasts of Peru, (SA west coast) when such a warm current (el Nino) appeared around christmas, running from NORTH to SOUTH.
However the fact is, as you see, that the contrary is happening: A cold current, called the Humboldt´s current, it is running from SOUTH to NORTH. (All that blue color along SA coasts).
If there were an El Nino, that yellow-green color little spots along the central pacific equator line would have streched reaching the SA coasts displacing the humboldt´s current, which has not happened. If you look only at the SOI index, being negative you would believe there is an El Nino, but SOI refers only to difference of pressures between Tahiti and Darwin which, in these interesting times, mean nothing.
What is amazing is that the anomaly in the Tropics actually went up, slightly, from 0.495 to 0.503 (or, rounded, stayed the same). It will be interesting to see UAH’s breakout for USA48, and the Northern Extra Tropics.
I saw this nine year chart of satellite temperatures vs. CO2 for nine years ending 2009 – negative correlation!
http://www.c3headlines.com/2010/01/satellite-confirms-that-global-temps-continue-decline-trend-a-minus-151f-per-century-rate.html
Look at this entry in the BBC’s Richard Black’s blog:
He noticed that the AO went negative. He doesn’t even try to give it much of an AGW spin.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/richardblack/2010/01/arctic_conditions_arctic_cause.html
As I look at the snow that won’t melt and the temperature thermometer that won’t climb out of the teens, I suspect Arkansas didn’t get the El Nino memo.
Think I’ll call in and bug these guys on the radio show…
Highlights on the Show…January 4 – 8, 2010 | Thom Hartmann
… Chance to Save Humanity” Thom speaks with Dr. James Hansen about his new book…
http://www.thomhartmann.com/2010/01/04/highlights-on-the-show-january-4-8-2010/
Why does it show T = Departure from 79 to 89 and not 79 to 09
Weather is not climate OK, but that is surely most relevant back in the day when all we knew about weather/climate was our own little corner of it.
But now we know what is happening all over the world at the same time and we know that it is a bad winter all across the Northern Hemisphere from N. America to Europe to Russia to China and Korea and it is also affecting the Indian Sub-Continent.
We cannot assume that our own little area of sub-zero tundra is balanced out overall by equal or more extensive areas of above average balmy weather. Yes, I am sure there are a few relative warmspots but overall the picture is quite clear. It is a brutal winter all across the NH, not simply a temporary local incursion of arctic air into one particular area.
Imagine if you will a heat wave all at the same time and killing people all across the Northern Hemisphere from N. America to Europe to Russia to China and Korea and also affecting the Indian Sub-Continent.
Would this be reported with no mention of Global Warming? I think not. It would be loudly proclaimed as definitive proof of the reality of warming and accompanied by proclaimations of doom for all the world.