December UAH global temperature anomaly – down by almost half

December 2009 UAH Global Temperature Update +0.28 Deg. C

by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

UAH_LT_1979_thru_Dec_09

The global-average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly fell back to the October level of +0.28 deg. C in December.

The tropics continue warm from El Nino conditions there, while the NH and SH extratropics anomalies cooled from last month. While the large amount of year-to-year variability in global temperatures seen in the above plot makes it difficult to provide meaningful statements about long-term temperature trends in the context of global warming, the running 25-month average suggests there has been no net warming in the last 11 years or so.

[NOTE: These satellite measurements are not calibrated to surface thermometer data in any way, but instead use on-board redundant precision platinum resistance thermometers carried on the satellite radiometers.]

YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS

2009 1 +0.304 +0.443 +0.165 -0.036

2009 2 +0.347 +0.678 +0.016 +0.051

2009 3 +0.206 +0.310 +0.103 -0.149

2009 4 +0.090 +0.124 +0.056 -0.014

2009 5 +0.045 +0.046 +0.044 -0.166

2009 6 +0.003 +0.031 -0.025 -0.003

2009 7 +0.411 +0.212 +0.610 +0.427

2009 8 +0.229 +0.282 +0.177 +0.456

2009 9 +0.422 +0.549 +0.294 +0.511

2009 10 +0.286 +0.274 +0.297 +0.326

2009 11 +0.497 +0.422 +0.572 +0.495

2009 12 +0.280 +0.318 +0.242 +0.503

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Douglas DC

But NOAA here in Ne Oregon, promises a warm, dry,than normal January. Praise
Gaia and her Profit….
Believe! El Nino is real and he’s wearing a Superbaby outfit….
This is actually what they are saying that Nino is going save US from winter….
OK.

Henry chance

Worse than expected. Weather is not climate they say.

Richard M

About what I expected. The SSTs led by the El Nino are still driving up the global temps. However, if this event is disappearing, as it appears may be happening, it will be real interesting to see exactly what happens next.
Will the drop be quick? Will it be slow? Will some other factor start to exert its influence? Time will tell.
All I know is we were supposed to have a mild winter here in the midwest because of the El Nino. Still waiting …

David Segesta

Why use a 25 month running average?

jmrSudbury

Where did the data come from? It is not on the http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/msu/t2lt/tltglhmam_5.2 site yet.
John M Reynolds

David Corcoran

Now that I understand how surface data is collected and compiled, thanks to your surface stations survey Anthony, Stephen Mcintyre’s analysis, and the Climategate data dump… UAH and RSS (in that order) are all I trust.

Ibrahim
JaneHM
snowmaneasy

Roy,
Is there anywhere to get this data in digital form ??

Jason Bair

SH seemed to drop the most.

JonesII

One burning question: Have those satellites been adjusted with surface stations?, if so, how would these temperatures look if readjusted to checked reality, taking into consideration surfacestations.org recorded error margins?.

Note that the daily temps were rising steeply at the end of December and are possibly approaching record territory in January if they don’t fall off again.

Peter Taylor

Looking at the latest NOAA sea surface temperature anomaly data, the warm area of the Pacific El Nino is obvious, and the north Pacific off Alaska is till cool (phase of the PDO), but the rest of the global oceans also look ‘warm’ and I wonder if it is ENSO that affects the globe – as I have always been led to believe, or the globe that affects ENSO. If the latter, we would have to be looking at a major shift in cloud cover or a reduction in cloud-free atmospheric transparency (or both) in order to get extra warming SW radiation to the ocean surface on this scale. Does anybody have such up-to-date data?
Could Atmospheric transparency be affected by magnetic/electrical properties related to voltages? Is there an ENSO signal of that kind that would be global but affect the Pacific more strongly?

MJK

It is intersting how Dr Spencer has shifted his running average from a 13 month running average to a new 25 month average. This conveniently “hides” the return in 2009 to well above average temperatures since the cooler (but still warmer than average) year of 2008. The use of the term no “net” warming in the commentary is another clever trick. Any blind freddy reading the graph can see that it shows a warming trend every decade for the past three decades.
Readers might also be intersted in looking at Australia’s 2009 climate report (released yesterday), which shows this decade was the warmest on record in Australia and that 2009 the second warmest year on record. http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/climate/change/20100105.shtml
It may help some visitors to this blog shift their focus from the silly idea that a couple of cold weeks in a northern winter is proof that GLOBAL warming has stopped.

DirkH

“Henry chance (07:37:08) :
Worse than expected. Weather is not climate they say.”
as in “Reality is not fantasy”?

I wonder if the UHI thermometers will see things as cold.

Stephan
syphax

Interesting footnote. I wonder if Dr. Spencer has caught flak from Monckton’s “the satellite record is just calibrated to the surface record” meme.
Be careful not to eat one of your own in the frenzy.

JonesII

Richard M (07:37:09) Do you see any El Nino here?:
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif
The El Nino was named as such , many years ago, by the fishermen along the northern coasts of Peru, (SA west coast) when such a warm current (el Nino) appeared around christmas, running from NORTH to SOUTH.
However the fact is, as you see, that the contrary is happening: A cold current, called the Humboldt´s current, it is running from SOUTH to NORTH. (All that blue color along SA coasts).
If there were an El Nino, that yellow-green color little spots along the central pacific equator line would have streched reaching the SA coasts displacing the humboldt´s current, which has not happened. If you look only at the SOI index, being negative you would believe there is an El Nino, but SOI refers only to difference of pressures between Tahiti and Darwin which, in these interesting times, mean nothing.

blcjr

What is amazing is that the anomaly in the Tropics actually went up, slightly, from 0.495 to 0.503 (or, rounded, stayed the same). It will be interesting to see UAH’s breakout for USA48, and the Northern Extra Tropics.

Prentis

I saw this nine year chart of satellite temperatures vs. CO2 for nine years ending 2009 – negative correlation!
http://www.c3headlines.com/2010/01/satellite-confirms-that-global-temps-continue-decline-trend-a-minus-151f-per-century-rate.html

DirkH

Look at this entry in the BBC’s Richard Black’s blog:
He noticed that the AO went negative. He doesn’t even try to give it much of an AGW spin.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/richardblack/2010/01/arctic_conditions_arctic_cause.html

Ed Murphy

As I look at the snow that won’t melt and the temperature thermometer that won’t climb out of the teens, I suspect Arkansas didn’t get the El Nino memo.
Think I’ll call in and bug these guys on the radio show…
Highlights on the Show…January 4 – 8, 2010 | Thom Hartmann
… Chance to Save Humanity” Thom speaks with Dr. James Hansen about his new book…
http://www.thomhartmann.com/2010/01/04/highlights-on-the-show-january-4-8-2010/

Max

Why does it show T = Departure from 79 to 89 and not 79 to 09

TerrySkinner

Weather is not climate OK, but that is surely most relevant back in the day when all we knew about weather/climate was our own little corner of it.
But now we know what is happening all over the world at the same time and we know that it is a bad winter all across the Northern Hemisphere from N. America to Europe to Russia to China and Korea and it is also affecting the Indian Sub-Continent.
We cannot assume that our own little area of sub-zero tundra is balanced out overall by equal or more extensive areas of above average balmy weather. Yes, I am sure there are a few relative warmspots but overall the picture is quite clear. It is a brutal winter all across the NH, not simply a temporary local incursion of arctic air into one particular area.
Imagine if you will a heat wave all at the same time and killing people all across the Northern Hemisphere from N. America to Europe to Russia to China and Korea and also affecting the Indian Sub-Continent.
Would this be reported with no mention of Global Warming? I think not. It would be loudly proclaimed as definitive proof of the reality of warming and accompanied by proclaimations of doom for all the world.

Layne Blanchard

Roy, many have been asking if your calculations depend on calibration from the surface records? Please let us know. Is it possible that calibration has injected a positive Delta in your running anomaly?

WillyMc

Not to worry about a wee bit of cooling. The extra CO2 produced by massive increases of people burning fossil fuels attempting to stay warm should kick in any day now. In the meantime keep a sharp eye out for Polar Bears heading south for the winter.

Sean Ogilvie

Nit picking alert:
I’ve posted this before and will again. The official number hasn’t been posted yet. I respect Dr. Roy Spencer and realize that he basically runs the program but I prefer to wait until it is officially posted at:
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/msu/t2lt/tltglhmam_5.2
Hopefully it will remain unchanged.

Layne Blanchard

Doh! sorry…. if all else fails, read directions…. 🙂

How’s does global warming explain the cooling temperatures of the planet?

Thanks, Roy, for continuing to post information on reality.
The conflict with predictions made by an unholy alliance of scientists and politicians is obvious to all.
With kind regards,
Oliver K. Manuel

And as I normally do at this time is link the preliminary December SST anomalies:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/12/nino34-sst-anomalies-are-approaching-2.html
The December OI.v2 data won’t be finalized (according to their published schedule) until this coming Monday, the 11th. I’ll do the full post on that day.
I also took a look at the hotspot (a.k.a the Big Red Blob) in the mid latitudes of the South Pacific.
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2010/01/south-pacific-hot-spot.html
It seems to be an artifact of the 1997/98 El Nino. Hotspots in the same location appear now with every El Nino, while they did not appear with any regularity before it.

Doug in Seattle

I think we are now finding out how a negative PDO affects El Ninos. It kind of reminds me in a way of how wind shear destroys cyclones.

kadaka

Possible weatherman statements:
Wow, the mercury is dropping!
Understood by all.
Man, the alcohol is falling!
Not that well understood, may be confusing late at night and early in the morning.
Boy, the bi-metal is straightening!
Parents might call the station and write letters.
Change is not always progress.

crosspatch

I was actually surprised that the NH anomaly was as high as it was. I was expecting it to be less than October.

Vincent

Mjk,
“It may help some visitors to this blog shift their focus from the silly idea that a couple of cold weeks in a northern winter is proof that GLOBAL warming has stopped.”
It is more a case of the last decade of non warming, as any “blind Freddy” can see.

Wondering Aloud

MJK
Could you please tell me what created the “silly idea” of catastrophic warming in the first place? It sure isn’t the data or the physics of radiation transport. Nor was it anything to do with thermodynamics.
Your double standard is showing?
It isn’t a few weeks, we are talking about 3 years and running with no real summer and brutal winters. I am starting to doubt even the satellite data; when they tell me above normal and we go year after year wildly colder than any time in 35 years. I can accept this as natural variability but the idea of warming…. Well there hasn’t been any in North America in the last 50 years. so it sure ain’t “global”
The US data sets are the largest and most complete. Even though they are not very good, what makes you so sure that they are wrong and some nudocumented compilation of other data is right?

Enduser

Der Mod, If you think that this is a little to “spammish” feel free to snip.
I just posted about the current Northern Hemisphere cold spell on Reddit. It is quickly being downvoted, and thus is in danger of being buried altogether. Would you folks be so kind as to stop by and upvote it, and perhaps leave a comment?
http://www.reddit.com/r/reddit.com/comments/aluki/record_cold_and_snow_in_siberia_europe_asia_north/

DirkH

“MJK (08:00:13) :
[…] This conveniently “hides” the return in 2009 to well above average
[…] The use of the term no “net” warming in the commentary is another clever trick. […]”
I heard that these are standard colloquialisms amongst “credible climatologists”? From one Dr. Phil Jones? Describing what they normally do?
Listen MJK. We do not hate you. We are nice people. Nobody of your fellows will find out when you just open your eyes. Don’t let them tell you what to think. Decide for yourself.

Midwest Mark

So, say that temperatures continue to decline for the next 30 years, as some have predicted. Winters get colder. Arctic sea ice continues to expand….What will be the fallout? Will Dateline NBC run an investigative look at the AGW movement? Will Congress call for hearings? Will people across the globe demand an explanation? Or will scientists wriggle off the hook by steadfastly claiming that a hotter world is still on the perpetual horizon? Will the public’s attention be diverted to a new disaster scenario (e.g., devastating asteroids, massive earthquakes, pandemics, etc.)? Or will the world gain a tiny bit of common sense about these matters? Interesting times…

Stefan

MJK (08:00:13) :
Readers might also be intersted i[…] this decade was the warmest on record in Australia and that 2009 the second warmest year on record. […]
It may help some visitors to this blog shift their focus from the silly idea that a couple of cold weeks in a northern winter is proof that GLOBAL warming has stopped.

It is silly to think 10 years represents climate, or that “warmest year on record” has anything to do with proof of global warming.

Peter Taylor (07:59:31) :
Looking at the latest NOAA sea surface temperature anomaly data, the warm area of the Pacific El Nino is obvious, and the north Pacific off Alaska is till cool (phase of the PDO), but the rest of the global oceans also look ‘warm’ and I wonder if it is ENSO that affects the globe – as I have always been led to believe, or the globe that affects ENSO. If the latter, we would have to be looking at a major shift in cloud cover or a reduction in cloud-free atmospheric transparency (or both) in order to get extra warming SW radiation to the ocean surface on this scale. Does anybody have such up-to-date data?
Could Atmospheric transparency be affected by magnetic/electrical properties related to voltages? Is there an ENSO signal of that kind that would be global but affect the Pacific more strongly?

My model says the oceans start emitting heat-energy when the sun drops below 40SSN. So the since the SSN was above this value for much of the C20th, there is a lot of extra heat built up in the ocean which has caused the big el nino’s as the sun’s high activity values have started to wane since 1992. These big el nino’s propped up the warmth for some time, but we are now starting to feel the effects of the quiescent sun more directly.
We already had most of the ‘heat in the pipeline’.
Because the heat is leaving the oceans everywhere at once, there is no big spike in humidity over the east pacific to hold the heat in the atmosphere, and a lot of it is escaping to space, hence the high outgoing LW values since 2000.
I keep repeating this in the hope someone will listen, but the idea that the oceans don’t store heat is well entrenched, and it helps perpetuate the myth that the sun’s influence on climate is small. It is not small, it is the primary driver of climate change, but because it can’t be shown with nice simple directly correlating graphs, it isn’t believed.

G.L. Alston

MJK — Any blind freddy reading the graph can see that it shows a warming trend every decade for the past three decades.
Wow, you figured this out all by yourself? UAH depicts the basic 0.7 degrees C / century rise we all expect. This is not news, nor is it proof of anthropogenic cause, nor is it proof of CO2 warming. The expected temp rise is a continuation of the same trend in effect since the end of the LIA.

George E. Smith

“”” JonesII (07:52:24) :
One burning question: Have those satellites been adjusted with surface stations?, if so, how would these temperatures look if readjusted to checked reality, taking into consideration surfacestations.org recorded error margins?. “””
That’s an interesting question; I don’t know how you would find out the answer .
Mind you, you could try reading what Dr Roy Said:-
“”” [NOTE: These satellite measurements are not calibrated to surface thermometer data in any way, but instead use on-board redundant precision platinum resistance thermometers carried on the satellite radiometers.] “””
If I had to stick my neck out and guess, I would venture that these data were not adjusted to surface thermometers.
From Roy’s description, I can’t quite figure how this satellite works, but it sounds to me that it is something like doing a calibration by simultaneously heating the sensor (perhaps thermopile) and a PR thermometer, which has a history of good stable repeatability, and calibration.
Personally, I’m partial to semiconductor bandgap thermometers; but I would agree, that in the radiation environment of satellites, that is not too cool. It’s hard to think of a thermometer that is built more like a brick outhouse, than a platinum resistance thermometer. Hundreds of years of experimentation have established the dependability of those, in the appropriate temperature range.
But I haven’t quite figured out exactly what the temperature remote sensing physics really is; other than they must be sensing some range of EM radiations; but do they monitor the spectrum, or the peak spectral radiance, or simply the total energy or what, and some how tie it to black body temperatures.
In any case, I have about zero confidence in ANY surface based data, to compare with a satellite scan; simply because the surface sampling is a joke.
And when it is all said and done; the temperature, or the temperature anomaly, tells you exactly nothing about the energy balance of the earth; so what good is it; other than to inspire generations of statistical mathematicians to create ever more imaginative statistical analyses, of numbers that after all are all supposed to be different anyway.

Steve Keohane

Thank you Roy, I always look forward to this data. While there is an El Nino going on, and the “tropics continue warm”, is it unusual for the tropics to exceed the NH anomalies only 5 months of the year, and the SH 6 months?

PhilW

Russian research forecasts global cooling
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=114261

Pieter F

MJK (08:00:13) : “It may help some visitors to this blog shift their focus from the silly idea that a couple of cold weeks in a northern winter is proof that GLOBAL warming has stopped.”
It might also help some visitors to MJK’s world to shift their focus from the silly idea that a couple of warm decades is proof that global warming ever existed in the first place. If one used decadal smoothing (rather than 25 weeks) and reached far enough back for the discussion to really involve climate and not weather, it would become apparent the world is simply recovering from the Maunder Minimum/Little Ice Age. Should the long term trend continue, a century or so down the road we might reach the climatic conditions of the MWP. Give it several centuries and we might even reach the Interglacial Climate Optimums of the Egyptian dynasties and Middle Eastern empires five thousand years ago. However, looking at the behavior of previous Interglacials, we are more likely to continue the long-term over-all cooling trend.
Remember: the AGW Movement is not about weather or climate. It is about Maurice Strong’s efforts to establish a global governance.

John Gonzales

MJK
I suggest some other drink than kool aid and look at the fact that both New Zealand and Australia “adjusted” data show an increase, but when compared to the original “raw” data the increase is gone: http://joannenova.com.au/2009/12/smoking-guns-across-australia-wheres-the-warming/.

james griffin

With ref to MJK…the words “warmest on record” relate to approx 150 years of a planet that has been around circa 5 billion years.
The last three decades have been warmer than the previous three but we were heading for an Ice Age 1940 to 1970…allegedly,
Australia may well be quite warm but the rest of us are not….we have just had three lousy summers and are now on our third very cold winter in succession.
The Poles are freezing up and we understand that Antarctica had it’s greatest extent of ice ever recorded during the souther hemisphere’s latest winter…but thats only 30 years….out of the 5 billion.
No increase in overall temp in 11 years whilst CO2 has risen 4-5% and no hot spots in the Troposphere which would be the signal of CO2 related AGW.
Clearly bigger things are at play…..like the Sun.
Roy Spencer is trying to take a more balanced view from his data set, unlike CRU Hadley Centre and it’s cast of resident comedians who think they can deny the historical existence of the “Medieval Warming Period”.

TerrySkinner

MJK (08:00:13) :
“Readers might also be intersted i[…] this decade was the warmest on record in Australia and that 2009 the second warmest year on record. […]
It may help some visitors to this blog shift their focus from the silly idea that a couple of cold weeks in a northern winter is proof that GLOBAL warming has stopped. ”
That would be the records that have been adjusted in accordance with ‘accepted international standards’ I presume. See previous discussion about Darwin on this site.