While early autumn snowstorms aren’t uncommon in US weather history, they tend to be quick affairs that melt off quickly in a day or two. This however is a bit different in that we have a significant portion of the northern Midwest plains and northern Rockies are snow covered and it is not quickly dissipating, in fact it is increasing. Since October 10th the coverage has increased from 13.2% of the USA covered by snow.
This map below is from NOAA’s NOHRSC National Snow Analysis page.
Here is the accompanying table and discussion:
October 13, 2009
| Area Covered By Snow: | 19.9% |
| Area Covered Last Month: | 0.0% |
| Snow Depth | |
|---|---|
| Average: | 0.7 in |
| Minimum: | 0.0 in |
| Maximum: | 728.8 in |
| Std. Dev.: | 2.1 in |
| Snow Water Equivalent | |
| Average: | 0.1 in |
| Minimum: | 0.0 in |
| Maximum: | 403.4 in |
| Std. Dev.: | 0.4 in |
By way of comparison, here is the October 13th USA snow cover for the last few years:
2003- .7
2004- .3
2005- 1.7
2006- 3.7
2007- .3
2008-12.7
2009-19.9
What is also interesting is the 6 year trend of snow depth on this date.
2003- 38.2 in
2004-322.6 in
2005-456.9 in
2006-223.2 in
2007-458.1 in
2008-600.6 in
2009-728.8 in
You can watch the snow cover advance in the animation they provide:
Click for animation of the last 72 hours
Weather Summary
A series of potent systems moved across the coterminous U.S. this weekend, and they brought snow to the north and rain to the south. Late last week, heavy rain fell across the south, which continued to aggravate river flooding and keep soils most.
On Friday, up to 1 foot of snow fell at higher elevations in Wyoming, mainly due to upslope flow from a surface low which moved across the Plains. This same system produced up to 1 1/2 feet of snow to mainly Nebraska Friday and Saturday. Lighter amounts – up to 1/2 foot – fell across the southern Dakotas. On Monday, another system produced light snow across the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes.
Much of the Western snowpack is cold and stable due due to unseasonably cold air temperatures in those areas. Along the southern edge of the snowpack – from southeastern Idaho to southern Wyoming and from southern Nebraska through southern Iowa, warm and melting conditions were present.
A deep, strong offshore system off the West Coast with potent onshore flow will cause widespread heavy rainfall across the northern two-thirds of California. Up to a foot of snow is possible in the high-elevation central Sierra Nevada, but it will be mixed with rain.
The energy of this West Coast system will shift northward and bring moderate rainfall – 1 to 2 inches – to the coastal Northwest and the Cascades on Wednesday and Thursday.
A midlevel trough will develop across the eastern U.S., and a stationary front across the South will be a focus for heavy rainfall through midweek, and this rain will shift to the Middle Atlantic states late this week.
As the West Coast system lifts northward, midlevel ridging will develop progress smartly across the West. Daily maximum temperatures are expected to be above freezing in much of the West by Friday. The ridge will move into the central U.S. by the weekend and bring seasonable temperatures to the Plains and Upper Midwest, causing snowmelt there.
Snow Reports
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h/t to WUWT reader Mike Bryant
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“The Earth has a fever”.
ManBearPig
NOAA recap for October:
Temperatures at or above normal
Snow at or below normal
NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment….
Might this be because of the two volcanoes which erupted earlier this year plus the colder PDA cycle getting ramped up?
Anthony, On that website, you can also see the US continental snow coverage percentage for October 13 back to 2003.
2003- .7
2004- .3
2005- 1.7
2006- 3.7
2007- .3
2008-12.7
Ah, good news. Anything to show up the ninnies in charge. Now if only the earth would open up and swallow the Federal Reserve building.
NK (09:03:29) : “The Earth has a fever”.–ManBearPig
I’d say it’s got the chills.
Definitely the results of Global Warming!!!
Looks like I’ll be winning all my bets that this winter will be colder and with more snowfall than the last 2 “cold” winters, despite El Nino – whoops, I forgot, there’s not one AGWer with enough spine to take my bet… Ahhh well.
Now is the time for Climate Progress to post fires and 2099 forecasts. If you don’t like today’s cold weather you can tune into the AGW networks and see hot in 2050.
This doesn’t help the Carbon Credit scheme trading prices. You can buy a ton for a dime.
Hey man. Got change for a paradigm??
Albedo up, temperatures down.
How inconvenient.
My car had ice on the windscreen this morning. Coastal (ie *mild*) New Jersey.
Let’s see…above average temperatures for September, followed by unusually early snowfalls in October. Sounds like weather to me!
Now lets ask the biosphere…from humans down to single-celled pond plants…which they liked better: the (relatively) warm September or the winter-like October? If climate was controlled by a democracy, October would be above average as well.
Henry chance,
Climate scientist out of work says, “Buddy, can you paradigm?”
Mike
Yeah, but just wait, in ten years it’s going to get really warm… just wait.
Is this merely a coincidence that this is happening as the sun goes into a long minimum? Personally I wonder if it isn’t too early for the sun to have an affect, but I’d like some response from those much wiser than I.
O.T.: There have been 3 meteoroids in the last week or so. Does anyone know how much effect the solar wind has on this size (several kilo) “particle” coming in from outside our solar system?
What effect would a solar wind at solar maximum have had on repelling these meteoroids, keeping them from reaching the earth?
Did Watts cover how June-Sep was the warmest on record, despite a solar ebb?
No?
Didn’t think so.
REPLY: I did cover the NOAA report for Sept, see the story below this one. And if you can provide a link to the story you reference I’ll add it also. Can’t cover what I don’t know about. – Anthony
Here in Calgary (just north of Montana) I can assure you we’re looking at real winter conditions today. I’m so glad I got a new car last month, the traction control, ESP and ABS have definitely been well tested now.
Interestingly, we broke a heat record in September (35 C, and our warmest day of the year 2009!) and 20 days later we broke a cold record (-17C). Interesting times!
I keep telling people that weather varies, but we are certainly within the range of “normal” and have always been. Nothing unusual is happening here. Nothing!
Anthony, I made a comment in Open Thread about snow coverage over in the interior of Russia. IIRC, I believe I read an entry by D’Aleo a year or two ago about the correlation of early snowfall in Siberia and how cold the NH winter is. It looks like snow has come much earlier this year to Siberia than 2008.
Oct 12, 2008: http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2008/ims2008286_asiaeurope.gif
Oct 12, 2009: http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2009/ims2009285_asiaeurope.gif
Look for a hard, long winter…
It is interesting too as the sun is still fairly high in the sky. The impact of that snow on reflecting visible light back into space is much greater now than it would be in, say, December.
And a note about the storm that just passed through the SF Bay area: in my 13 years here, I can’t remember a storm that blew over so many trees. On my way to taking my son to school there were trees blown over everywhere. Three large trees in the park were down including two that were snapped off at the trunk some 10 feet above the ground. They weren’t blown over due to soft soil … they snapped in half. This was probably due to the fact that the leaves were still green and on the tree increasing the wind resistance. Trees in yards are down, there are branches all over the place. This was one doozy of a storm.
Ben Lomond in the Santa Cruz hills got 9 inches of rain. 6.25 inche fell in Corralitos. A municipal water department in the coastal region sent out the following to city employees: At Green Valley & College Rd. in the Corralitos Creek USGS has recorded 1,056 cubic feet second (or 473,933 gallons per minute) and a creek height of over 7.6ft. The most they have ever recorded prior to today was 387 cfs (173,685 gallons per minute) in 1963. What we received in the last 12 hours is almost half the amount of rain we received all of last year.
And all of this fell in 24 hours.
Typhoon Melor followed me home (LA), although since I had to land in San Fran and endure significant flight delays before — finally, exhausted — I reached destination, Melor mistook its “target” (me) tracked since Oct. 8 and directed its ire on Central and Northern CA. Ha!
Tongue out of cheek, and weather not climate: I read that the West Coast storm has broken all records for this time of year since 1962. If this stat is true, it seems that the current El Nino cannot be to blame. We have had many more rxtreme El Ninos without this kind of early rain and snow (central Sierras). Perhaps that huge cold spot in the Eastern Pacific with the negative PDO is showing off? Giving us a taste of what is to come in company with a grand minimum?
Like in Japan when I could not sleep through Melor’s dumping rains and howling winds, I could not sleep last night because of the very loud, steady drumbeat of rain. And this is October in Southern CA? My nerves are also a little unsettled after having just read one historical account of the Wolf Minimum years, W.C. Jordan’s book “The Great Famine: Northern Europe in the Early Fourteenth Century”. (Thanks to a WUWT commenter — sorry, forgot who — for the citation.)
Back2Bat (09:12:12) :
“Ah, good news. Anything to show up the ninnies in charge. Now if only the earth would open up and swallow the Federal Reserve building.”
Reply: Here here! And the UN too while it’s at it.
Despite the UK Met office predicting a mild winter here, I’ve already filled the oil tank for the central heating and cut half a cord of logs for the stove. This could be the long winter of discontent which finally starts the demise of the great CAGW scam (and a few politicians as well). :-))
I wonder how long it will take the NOHRSC to adjust this data…
Mann from about three feet of snow accumulation to over SIXTY feet since 2003… I wonder how much snow it really is since there has obviously been compaction as well…
Mike
ENSO Wrap-Up
A regular commentary on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Summary: Weaker Trade winds warm central Pacific
Central Pacific Ocean temperatures warmed over the past fortnight in response to weakened Trade winds, and remain at levels typical of an El Niño event. Leading climate models suggest tropical ocean temperatures will remain above these thresholds until at least early 2010.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/