From Roy Spencer’s blog (h/t to Ron de Haan)
August 21st, 2009 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
Since NOAA has announced that their data show July 2009 global-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) reaching a record high for the month of July, I thought I would take a look at what the combined AMSR-E & TMI instruments on NASA’s Aqua and TRMM satellites (respectively) had to say. I thought it might at least provide an independent sanity check since NOAA does not include these satellite data in their operational product.
The SSTs from AMSR-E are geographically the most complete record of global SSTs available since the instrument is a microwave radiometer and can measure the surface through most cloud conditions. AMSR-E (launched on Aqua in May 2002) provides truly global coverage, while the TMI (which was launched on TRMM in late 1997) does not, so the combined SST product produced by Frank Wentz’s Remote Sensing Systems provides complete global coverage only since the launch of Aqua (mid-2002). Through a cooperative project between RSS, NASA, and UAH, The digital data are available from the same (NASA Discover) website that our daily tropospheric temperatures are displayed, but for the SSTs you have to read the daily binary files and compute the anomalies yourself. I use FORTRAN for this, since it’s the only programming language I know.
As can be seen in the following plot of running 11 day average anomalies, July 2009 was indeed the warmest month during the relatively short Aqua satellite period of record, with the peak anomaly occurring about July 18.
The large and frequent swings in global average temperature are real, and result from changes in the rate at which water evaporates from the ocean surface. These variations are primarily driven by tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations, which change tropical-average surface winds by about 2 knots from lowest wind conditions to highest wind conditions.
As can be seen, the SSTs started to fall fast during the last week of July. If you are wondering what I think they will do in the coming months, well, that’s easy…I have no clue.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
“The large and frequent swings in global average temperature are real, and result from changes in the rate at which water evaporates from the ocean surface. These variations are primarily driven by tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations, which change tropical-average surface winds by about 2 knots”
Finally something that makes sense of both higher low latitude temps and the colder high latitude temps experienced this summer. I can’t wrap my brain around a lot of the science on this blog but ‘The global heat pump was not working as hard this summer’ makes sense and is consistent with both sets of observations.
That´s awesome, 0.2 degrees!!! Who in the world can feel such a nano temperature difference. It is obviously an employee´s compromise so as to not to offend his/her boss. It is so tiny that looks like he/she just wanted to make a tiny lie, kind of free sample bias. Pitiful indeed!
FTA-“As can be seen, the SSTs started to fall fast during the last week of July. If you are wondering what I think they will do in the coming months, well, that’s easy…I have no clue.”
Hmm that correlates with the apparent decline in El Nino….
In due time, will shipboard water temperature measurements be correlated with available satellite measurements?
(Also, ARGO and XBT float data…)
When, and where, would this be available?
It’s not weather, it’s climate!!! … when it’s a Norwegian Blue Climate.
Francis (17:55:45) get with the program.:
The satellite measurements must be calibrated by the traditional measurements. Please read that sentence again:
The very accurate satellite measurements must be calibrated by the very inaccurate traditional measurements.
By this means, the satellite temps can be “distorted”; I’d hate to bring up the word “fraud”; I really would.
Douglas DC: You wrote, “Hmm that correlates with the apparent decline in El Nino….”
That would be interesting if an El Nino started and then ebbed in “mid-Nino”. Keep in mind that the following graph is of weekly data and it ends in the week centered on August 12th. Also look back at the prior El Nino events and notice that they do dip at times on their rises to the peaks in November, December, January, so you really can’t predict anything from the recent two-week dip. It would be nice, though, if the NINO3.4 SST anomalies did, in fact, follow Dr Spencer’s graph above as you suggested.
http://i26.tinypic.com/16273hz.png
I’ll post an update at my website on Monday when the weekly data is updated.
The very accurate satellite measurements must be calibrated by the very inaccurate traditional measurements.
I was thinking about this today too….
Why the divergence in the land based measurements and satellite based measurements since 2008? From 1979 to 2008 they match pretty well with an offset. Since January of 2008, all bets are off.
I think it might be interesting to see what this precise graph looks like when lined up with the various hurricane intensity charts. (Throw in all the cyclones and other measurable storm systems.)
That is: Can we connect the temperature changes to any specific storm features? Or are even the Katrinas just too small to be discernible directly from their thermal effects on the global sea temperature chart?
Directly determining the “cloud feedback” would be excellent.
Sea temperature of 0.2 degree diference can be measured reliably at Sea all over world !? How?
Clearly the high sea surface temperatures are a result of the Urban Heat Island effect.
Just kidding.
It seems like I read, a while back, that the SST can be as much as 2 Degrees Cooler after a Hurricane has gone through. If that’s true, and considering that a major hurricane can be as much as 3, or 4 hundred miles across, and that one can travel a couple of thousand miles after forming (that could be as much as 600 – 800,000 sq miles, right?) that’s a pretty big swath.
Add in the fact that we, normally, have fourteen, or fifteen (I’m kinda pulling these numbers out of a hat) Named Storms, and seven, or eight (yep, same hat) hurricanes just in the Atlantic, and it seems like a couple of seasons of greatly reduced activity would surely leave a considerable amount of “warmer” water than would an “average” season. Especially, when the “Global” Hurriane/Typhoon/Storm index is way down for a couple of years, such as it is now.
NOAA chief Jane Lubchenco says, “climate models are robust enough to predict wind patterns 100 years from now”.
See what happens when you get to that pay grade?
You get smarter?
Wow, its may melting ice in north pole. So scary…
Given the recent kerfuffle between Steig et al and Hu McCulloch over the team’s corrigendum, or is that upyourreaerendum, I would like to point out that I beat Ron into comments on this by almost 2 hrs. I feel like Rodney Dangerfield!
Dave Wendt (14:15:48) :
Dr. Spencer has a new post up on his site about this
Record July 2009 Sea Surface Temperatures? The View from Space
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/08/record-july-2009-sea-surface-temperatures-the-view-from-space/
Ron de Haan (16:36:19) :
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/08/record-july-2009-sea-surface-temperatures-the-view-from-space/
So, are the “monthly corrupted (er, corrected) temperatures” recorded (for the official, long-term GISS and HADCRU records) based on a number-days-at-temperature method, or monthly-high + monthly low temperature/2 (net average temperature)?
If the latter, then a single three or four day hot spell of “high” temperatures could skew the whole month’s “average temperature”, when actually 26 days were below the anomaly average and four days were higher than the anomaly average.
UAH has “Ocean” in 1998/July listed as 0.45. 2009/July as 0.38
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt
April 1998 was much hotter across the board: Global, Land, Ocean.
Ocean temps seem to move at the same time, or a month or two Before, Global.
Looks like monthly is pretty much “wiggle-watching.”
This is a plot of running 11 day average anomalies where the noise is already about 0.1 deg. How about the non-averaged signal? Is the noise bigger than 0.2 deg?
Ray (22:29:58) :
Signal to noise = 2:1.
Confidence is hereby inducted.
So, if I subtracted the apparent noise, would I be looking at 0.1C anomaly?
I’m with Francis – where are the Argo data??? If not available – why not?
SST might probably not be the most relevant measurement for global warming. But still, it’s interesting to follow the game Earth keeps on playing with AGW-believers, and Skeptics as well, depending of which parameters we observe. Only one thing is for sure: It’s not game over!
So I had a thought today. (amazing, eh?)
Imagine a hurricane season where storms track across the gulf stream into the Gulf of Mexico. Now imagine a season where storms track ALONG the gulf stream. Do seasons where storms track along the gulf stream cause a reduction in heat delivery to Northern latitudes and result in lower temperatures and greater ice pack? Do years where storms track mainly into the gulf only briefly crossing the gulf stream result in warmer arctic conditions?
Would a persistent change in the Bermuda High such that storms tracked along the gulf stream for several years result in colder conditions overall?
Note the number of Atlantic storms in the 1960’s and the conditions then. Note the number of Gulf of Mexico storms in the 2000’s and the conditions then.
Just wondering if dissipation of heat by storms traveling along the stream results in a significantly cooler gulf stream when it arrives up North.
Dave Wendt (21:48:32) :
Given the recent kerfuffle between Steig et al and Hu McCulloch over the team’s corrigendum, or is that upyourreaerendum, I would like to point out that I beat Ron into comments on this by almost 2 hrs. I feel like Rodney Dangerfield!
Dave Wendt (14:15:48) :
Dr. Spencer has a new post up on his site about this
Record July 2009 Sea Surface Temperatures? The View from Space
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/08/record-july-2009-sea-surface-temperatures-the-view-from-space/
Ron de Haan (16:36:19) :
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/08/record-july-2009-sea-surface-temperatures-the-view-from-space/
Dave, you not only beat me by two hours, you can also prove it.
The science is settled.
“crosspatch (01:19:28) :
So I had a thought today. (amazing, eh?)
Imagine a hurricane season where storms track across the gulf stream into the Gulf of Mexico. Now imagine a season where storms track ALONG the gulf stream. Do seasons where storms track along the gulf stream cause a reduction in heat delivery to Northern latitudes and result in lower temperatures and greater ice pack? Do years where storms track mainly into the gulf only briefly crossing the gulf stream result in warmer arctic conditions?”
Interesting idea.
If it’s true, this should be a doozy of an example. Wunderground has current tracks taking the storm past us in N.E., on up to Nova Scotia where it looks like Halifax will get quite a spanking, and then the 5-day forecast takes it accross the northern Atlantic back over to the UK, where it makes landfall as a tropical storm.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200903_5day.html#a_topad
If you click on the historical tracking map on that link, it looks like the last storm that may have done this was back in 1883.
JimB
Just eyeballing the graph, why didn’t the headlines read, “Lowest January SST anoms on record! Highest SSTs only 18 months later! Earth experiencing record mood swings!”
Honestly I kept wondering where all the fuss was a year and a half ago when it looked like SSTs were plummeting. Or was that when they were insisting that there was something wrong with the satellites?